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Sterlite Industries
Performance Highlights
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 10,000 3,051 30.5 1,957 7.6 (11.3) (537)bp (29.6) 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 10,246 2,414 23.6 1,345 5.0 12.1 158bp 2.4
`108 `123
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others Abs. (%) Sensex STLT 3m 0.9 (3.0)
Base Metals 36,227 1.4 186/86 1,272,575 1 17,151 5,202 STRL.BO STLT@IN
For 4QFY2012, Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) reported consolidated net sales growth of 7.6% yoy. However, subdued performance from the aluminium segment dragged the companys profitability. Adjusted PAT for the quarter decreased by 29.6% yoy. We recommend Accumulate on the stock. Top-line growth driven by zinc and power segments: For 4QFY2012, Sterlites consolidated net sales increased by 7.6% yoy to `10,763cr, in-line with our estimate of `10,912cr. Net sales growth was driven by increase in power segment sales (+230.4% yoy to `737cr). Aluminium segment dents Sterlites profitability: Despite net sales growth of 7.6% yoy, Sterlites EBITDA decreased by 11.3% yoy to `2,705cr mainly due to a decline in profits from the aluminium segment. EBIT of the aluminium segment declined to `23cr in 4QFY2012 compared `195cr in 4QFY2011. Sterlites
53.3 9.5 19.6 17.6 1yr (12.3) (41.3) 3yr 51.4 8.4
associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported loss of `542cr in 4QFY2012 (Sterlites share of loss `160cr) compared to loss of `268cr in 4QFY2011. Sterlite reported exceptional items related to net incidental damages payable to Asarco of `423cr and exchange gain of `331cr in 4QFY2012. Adjusted net
profit decreased by 29.6% yoy to `1,377cr, in-line with our estimate of `1,311cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity during FY2013-14. While we expect the aluminium segments profitability to remain under pressure, the current stock price factors these concerns. At the CMP, the stock is trading at an inexpensive valuation of 3.4x FY2013E and 2.7x FY2014E EV/EBITDA. Considering the ongoing process of group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta Resources, valuation of Sterlite will mirror the valuation of consolidated company, Sesa Sterlite. We value Sterlite at `123, based on the SOTP methodology and recommend Accumulate on the stock.
FY2011 30,248 23.5 5,043 34.7 14.3 26.0 7.5 0.9 12.9 11.5 1.2 4.5
FY2012E 40,967 35.4 4,921 (2.4) 15.5 24.3 6.9 0.8 11.1 11.9 0.9 3.6
FY2013E 45,805 11.8 5,553 12.8 16.5 21.2 6.5 0.7 11.5 9.6 0.7 3.4
FY2014E 49,029 7.0 6,434 15.9 19.1 23.5 5.6 0.6 12.0 10.5 0.6 2.7
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841 Vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 10,763 4,854 45.1 991 9.2 415 3.9 1,854 17.2 8,113 75.4 56.1 2,705 25.1 328 507 704 (100) 2,473 23.0 487 19.7 1,987 1,277 1,377
4QFY11 10,000 4,527 45.3 685 6.8 368 3.7 1,426 14.3 7,005 70.0 55.9 3,051 30.5 118 352 747 (32) 3,296 33.0 566 17.2 2,730 1,925 1,957
3QFY12 10,246 4,825 47.1 1,057 10.3 415 4.1 1,592 15.5 7,890 77.0 57.5 2,414 23.6 157
% qoq 5.0 0.6 (6.2) 0.1 16.4 2.8 (2.4) 12.1 108.5 10.9 (19.8) 14.8 (3.7) 20.4 38.8 2.4
458 877 (425) 2,155 21.0 505 23.4 1,650 920 1,345
`268cr in 4QFY2011.
The company reported exceptional items related to net incidental damages payable to Asarco of `423cr and exchange gain of `331cr in 4QFY2012. Excluding these exceptional items, adjusted net profit decreased by 29.6% yoy to `1,377cr, slightly above our estimate of `1,311cr. Reported net profit decreased by 33.7% yoy to `1,277cr during the quarter.
Segmental performance
Copper segments TC/RCs increase by 36.8% yoy
During 4QFY2012, copper cathode production at the Tuticorin smelter was flat yoy at 80k tonnes. Mined metal from the Australian mine was also flat yoy at 5k tonnes. Thus, revenue of the copper segment increased marginally by 2.0% yoy to `5,399cr during the quarter. Copper TC/RCs increased by 36.8% yoy to USc15.3/lb. The company reported cost of production of USc4.1lb in 4QFY2012 compared to USc1/lb in 4QFY2011. The copper business had an exceptional item of `423cr related to an unfavorable ruling by the U.S. court in connection with the cancellation of the share purchase agreement entered with ASARCO in 2009. Consequently, the copper segments PAT decreased by 56.1% yoy to `139cr in 4QFY2012. However, PAT, excluding exceptional item, increased by 15.4% to `404cr during the quarter.
(` cr)
150 100 50 0
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
EBIT (LHS)
4QFY12
(%)
200
4.0
at Balco increased by 7.7% yoy to `96,857/tonne on account of higher prices of alumina and coal. Consequently, the aluminium segments EBIT stood at `23cr
in 4QFY2012 compared to EBIT of `195cr in 4QFY2011.
Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported loss of `542cr in 4QFY2012 (Sterlites share of loss `160cr) compared to loss of `268cr in 4QFY2011. Exhibit 4: Aluminium segments EBIT declines to `23cr
250 200 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
(` cr)
100 50 0
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
(50)
4QFY12
(5.0)
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
(%)
150
(` cr)
1,000 500 0
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment rationale
Zinc-lead expansion to aid growth: Sterlite had commissioned a 100ktpa lead smelter at Rajpura Dariba in 1QFY2012, the full benefits of which will be witnessed in FY2013. Moreover, expansion at the silver-rich Sindesur Khurd mine is expected to result in robust lead and silver sales volume growth in FY2013 and FY2014. SEL to reach full production capacity in FY2013: SELs fourth unit of 600MW has been synchronized during 4QFY2012 and is likely to commence commercial production from 2QFY2013, the benefits of which will be reflected in FY2014.
4QFY12
(%)
1,500
Valuation
We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity during FY2013-14. Sterlites expansion in the silver-rich Sindesar Khurd mine is expected to result in net profit growth of 6.3% in FY2013 and 15.9% in FY2014. While we expect the aluminium segments profitability to remain under pressure, the current stock price factors these concerns. At the CMP, the stock is trading at an inexpensive valuation of 3.4x FY2013E and 2.7x FY2014E EV/EBITDA. Considering the ongoing process of group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta Resources, valuation of Sterlite will mirror the valuation of consolidated company, Sesa Sterlite. We value Sterlite at `123, based on the SOTP methodology and recommend Accumulate on the stock.
(` cr)
Valuation technique EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA FCFE P/BV EV/EBITDA BV EV/EBITDA DCF Target multiple (x) 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.5 Equity value 12,337 1,888 (7,054) 58,521 1,421 1,009 2,948 11,571 72,347 % Stake 100% 51% 100% 65% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 59% Value 12,337 963 (7,054) 30,384 1,421 1,009 2,948 1,712 11,571 34,032 (28,797) 60,526 204 123
Jul-08
5.0x
Apr-09
8.0x
Jan-10
11.0x
Oct-10
14.0x
Jul-11
Apr-12
(`)
Dec-08
Aug-09
Apr-10
15.0x
Dec-10
20.0x
Aug-11
Apr-12
10.0x
300 200 100 0 Apr-06 Dec-06 Aug-07 Apr-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Apr-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Apr-12 0.5x 1.5x 2.5x 3.5x
TP (`)
Reco.
0.7 1.3
0.7
7.2 5.6
10.5
12.0
126
10
8.5
7.6
1.7
1.4
4.5
3.3
21.2
19.9
20.5
19.5
10
88 (4,098.3) (5,252) (10,996) 1,939 248 (1,128) 2,819 3,051 2,454 5,505 7,653 2,246 449 (2,201) 11,651 (2,167) 5,505 3,338
11
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.0 0.1 10.1 0.1 0.7 19.6 0.0 0.1 20.0 (0.0) (0.2) 9.8 (0.1) (0.5) 7.1 (0.2) (0.9) 8.3 1.4 54 15 52 44 1.5 59 8 57 83 1.2 83 19 89 111 1.2 83 19 89 85 1.1 83 19 89 80 1.0 83 19 89 75 10.6 13.9 14.6 11.8 16.3 12.7 11.5 16.4 13.0 11.9 18.2 12.0 9.6 15.1 11.5 10.5 16.5 12.0 18.9 85.3 0.7 12.0 5.6 0.0 12.2 23.2 81.4 0.6 11.2 2.9 0.1 12.2 23.1 80.2 0.7 12.9 2.7 0.0 13.1 20.3 78.6 0.9 13.7 13.7 16.6 78.0 0.9 11.3 11.3 18.6 78.0 0.8 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 14.8 1.4 90.4 11.9 11.9 14.1 1.3 110.1 15.0 14.3 18.2 1.8 123.3 14.4 15.5 21.0 1.8 136.1 16.5 16.5 22.8 1.9 150.7 19.1 19.1 26.3 2.2 167.6 8.8 7.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 4.8 0.6 9.1 7.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 4.8 0.5 7.5 5.9 0.9 1.6 1.2 4.5 0.5 6.9 5.1 0.8 1.7 0.9 3.6 0.5 6.5 4.7 0.7 1.8 0.7 3.4 0.4 5.6 4.1 0.6 2.1 0.6 2.7 0.3 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sterlite Industries No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
13