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Author Integrated Energy Solutions (IES) Mark Hankins November 2009 Editor Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH On behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) Contact Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH Potsdamer Platz 10, 10785 Berlin, Germany Fax: +49 (0)30 408 190 22 253 Email: pep-ostafrika@gtz.de Web: www.gtz.de/projektentwicklungsprogramm Web: www.exportinitiative.bmwi.de
This Target Market Analysis is part of the Project Development Programme (PDP) East Africa. PDP East Africa is implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) in context of the Export Initiative Renewable Energies. More information about the PDP and about renewable energy markets in East Africa: www.gtz.de/projektentwicklungsprogramm
This publication, including all its information, is protected by copyright. GTZ cannot be liable for any material or immaterial damages caused directly indirectly by the use or disuse of parts. Any use that is not expressly permitted under copyright legislation requires the prior consent of GTZ.
All contents were created with the utmost care and in good faith. GTZ assumes no responsibility for the accuracy,
Content
1
1.1 1.2
1.3 Local Capacities..................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 (Potential) Grid-Connect Wind Farms ................................................................................................. 3 1.3.2 Off-Grid Wind Projects ........................................................................................................................ 3
2.1 Overall Sector Outlook.......................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Grid-Connect Wind Generation Opportunities .......................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 Off-Grid Wind Generation Opportunities .................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Undeveloped Market Opportunities ..................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Stand-Alone Wind Systems for Commercial Battery Charging Stations..................................................... 8 2.2.2 Stand-Alone Wind Generators for Tourism in Off-Grid Locations ............................................................. 8 2.2.3 Stand-Alone Wind Generators in Hybrid Systems for Telecommunication ............................................... 9 2.2.4 Wind-Diesel Hybrid Systems for Rural Electrification through Mini-Grids ................................................ 9
3
3.1
3.2 Applicable Public Sector Support/ Financing Mechanisms and Sources .............................................. 12 3.2.1 Grid-Connected Wind Tariffs ................................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Mini-Grid Wind Tariffs .............................................................................................................................. 13
4
4.1 4.2
VI
List of Tables
Table 1: Wind Resources in Tanzania ..................................................................................................................... 1 Table 2: Existing Capacity for Studies and Works ................................................................................................... 4 Table 3: Summary of Wind Opportunities in Tanzania ............................................................................................ 5 Table 4: Grid-Connect Opportunities ....................................................................................................................... 6 Table 5: Off-Grid Stand Alone Wind Generator Opportunities ................................................................................. 7 Table 6: Stand-Alone Wind Systems for Commercial Battery Charging Stations .................................................... 8 Table 7: Stand-Alone Wind Generators for Tourism in Off-Grid Locations .............................................................. 8 Table 8: Stand-Alone Wind Generators in Hybrid Systems for Telecommunication ................................................ 9 Table 9: Wind-Diesel Hybrid Systems for Rural Electrification through Mini-Grids .................................................. 9 Table 10: Incentives and Support Mechanisms for Wind Project Developers........................................................ 12 Table 11: Grid-Connected Wind Tariffs ................................................................................................................. 13 Table 12: Mini-Grid Wind Tariffs ............................................................................................................................ 13 Table 13: Tanzania's Wind Energy Key Market Players ........................................................................................ 14
Annex
Table 14: Seasonally Adjusted Standardised Tariff Payable for Power Delivered to Buyer in 2008 ...................... 15 Table 15: Seasonally Adjusted Standardised Tariffs ............................................................................................. 15
Currency
1 USD 1 = = TZS 1,440 (May 2010) TZS 1,776 (May 2010)
Measurement
W kW MW GW Watt Kilowatt Megawatt Gigawatt Wp kWp MWp GWp Watt peak Kilowatt peak Megawatt peak Gigawatt peak Wh kWh MWh GWh Watt hour Kilowatt hour Megawatt hour Gigawatt hour
VII
List of Acronyms
BBS CDM DANIDA EIA EWURA GEF HFO ICT LRMC MEM MFI m/s NEMA NGO O&M PPA PV REA SHS SIDA SME SPP SPPA SPPT TADEP TANESCO TIC UNDP USAID VDC Battery Based System Clean Development Mechanism Danish International Aid Organisation (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) Environmental Impact Assessment Energy and Water Utility Regulatory Authority Global Environment Facility Heavy Fuel Oil Information and Communication Technology Long Run Marginal Cost Ministry of Energy and Minerals Micro Finance Institutions Meter per Second (Wind Speed Measurement) National Environment Monitoring Agency Non-Governmental Organisation Operation and Maintenance Power Purchase Agreement Photovoltaic Rural Energy Agency Solar Home System Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency Small- and medium-sized enterprise Small Power Project Standardised Power Purchase Agreement Standardised Power Purchase Tariffs Tanzania Access Development Energy Project Tanzania Electric Supply Company Tanzania Investment Centre United Nations Development Programme United States Agency for International Development Volts Direct Current
VIII
Summary
Tanzania has encouraging wind resources throughout the Rift Valley, in the highland plains and along the coast, however, thorough exploration has yet to be conducted. To date, only a handful of off-grid wind plants have been installed, including wind pumps and small-scale power generators, and no gridconnected systems. There are undeveloped opportunities to establish stand-alone wind systems for telecom, tourism and mini-grid. There is an estimated short-term potential for 300-500 MW of grid-connected wind farms. Although Tanzania does not have a programme of feed-in tariffs that provides set payments for specified technologies, it has recently-designed mechanisms to encourage the development of small renewable energy-based power plants, namely hydro, wind and biomass. These mechanisms include a standardised power purchase agreement (SPPA) and associated standardised power purchase tariffs (SPPT). Small power projects are defined for small power plants that use a renewable energy power source (or waste heat) with an installed capacity of between 100 kW and 10 MW. At present, several companies are in development stages of setting up wind farms of around 50 MW and more in the Rift Valley that could be operational in the near future. It is expected that their positive experiences will open up a larger market for wind generation and improve the current poor product supply chains and technical training available.
The DANIDA/Ris/TANESCO study (2003) also used satellite data to evaluate off-shore coastal wind speeds and found that: the average of annual wind speed is over 6 m/s along the coast there is no significant variation between the North and the South coast of Tanzania and there is a significant seasonal difference in wind speed (speeds range between less than 5 m/s in November/December and over 8 m/s in July). Factors that make Tanzanias wind regime interesting (especially in the Rift Valley) are the low turbulence, high average speeds and unidirectional nature of the flow. From measurements in some sites, net annual capacity factors as high as 40 % would be possible. Also notable is the fact that ample areas of land are available in areas of good wind resources.
Use of off-grid wind energy in Tanzania has been established for decades. At least 150 wind-pumping systems have been installed by missionary projects, communities and private individuals, but not all are currently operational. There are as many as several hundred installed small wind turbine units in off-grid parts of the country (totalling > 400 kW). However, neither the off-grid wind pump market nor the wind generator market has developed to warrant an organised supply chain for products outside of occasional purchases. Suppliers of off-grid wind systems are only beginning to get established, wind generators are available on demand from the major solar suppliers. As of June 2009, there was no grid connecting wind systems in Tanzania and two known projects of over 50 MW in planning stages. There is recently growing interest data-gathering throughout the country, following a 2002-DANIDA/Ris study that assessed four sites for large-scale wind projects (included in Table 1). The first generation of pioneer grid-connected wind farms are testing the waters and are negotiating with the government, power companies and regulatory bodies to put in place processes that will make wind projects and power purchase agreements (PPAs) much simpler in the future.
The key constraint of off-grid populations is ability-to-pay for electricity. In general, those located further from the grid have proportionally lower levels of economic activity, but there are a number of economically active sectors in areas poorly served by the grid, including mining, tourism, and telecom which would be willing to invest in power systems.
1.3.1
Wind farms rely extensively on imported expertise and technology. The current active projects in the country are rapidly building skills that previously were not available and will result in a network of agencies that can be utilised by future projects. The process, however, for the pioneer companies is time consuming and therefore result in relatively high up-front investment costs. For developers interested in importing 1 MW systems into the country, it would be expected that capacity issues would be a major problem. Wind studies: There has been a rapid build-up in capacity to gather data and this is not seen as a problem area. Companies that put up masts for telecom base stations are capable of readily setting up wind measurement stations. Power purchase agreements (PPA): There is little capacity in place to complete the complex legal arrangements involved in setting up PPAs. Civil works is not seen to be a major problem area as there are companies that have the capacity to install the wind generator bases and complete the interconnection work. Cranes for the erection of the wind towers are not available in the country currently. Transport of large wind towers and/or blade components on the limited road network is expensive and disruptive due to limited traffic flows from the port city of Dar es Salaam. There are regulations that make the process of moving equipment expensive and difficult to complete. Load flow study: Current projects have had to bring in their own consultants to complete these studies on behalf of the power company.
1.3.2
Execution of small off-grid wind projects relies largely on existing networks of PV and generation installers/designers. Since retailers often lack capacity to design and market off-grid wind systems the support to develop these skills often comes from supplier companies or projects. Companies that install and design systems generally train their own staff or send their staff abroad for this training.
The demand for small wind generators in Tanzania has not developed and consequently neither have supply chains. Unlike the case for PV equipment, dealers do not usually stock wind turbines and they are supplied on order and/or purchased opportunistically by dealers. Dealers have not rolled out marketing campaigns for wind turbines, thus rural consumers are largely unaware of the technology and prices are extremely high. Those that purchase get their information along different channels or import units directly from outside the country. There is no accepted accreditation system or hand-over procedure to ensure that systems are properly done (as there is with grid systems). Consumer agencies are often at the mercy of suppliers when systems are installed. Development of the mini-grid or large off-grid system market is constrained by a lack of capacity to design and install large systems, and a lack of faith among potential customers, in company capacity to complete and execute large systems.
Table 2: Existing Capacity for Studies and Works Tanzania private firms or individuals -/+ + International firms present in Tanzania ++ + + + ++ ++ + + + Government institutions -/+ -/+ -/+ + N/A -/+ + N/A
Wind resource study Site survey and rough system design PPA Negotiation Technical plant design -/+ Feasibility study + Construction work ++ Engineering work + Electrical work ++ Business development + advice - not available; -/+ limited; + can be found; ++ there is choice
Water pumping
Wind farms could be established anywhere along the national grid. The necessary sub-station and transmission lines for grid connection should be considered as part of the wind farm project. The feasibility of wind farms depends on the cost of energy from such a wind farm, which in turn will depend on the wind conditions. There is no reason to believe that costs of construction and operation of a wind farm in any of the areas visited along the Pangani River or between Mbulu and Karatu should be significantly higher than elsewhere in the world, provided that the wind farm has a sufficiently large size and uses commercially proven technology and internationally 2 experienced suppliers.
The short-term upper limit of wind farm activities is likely to be 300 500 MW. This is a technical limitation based on grid size (it does not necessarily mean wind potential would be exhausted or that more wind could be added as the grid increases in size). Larger wind farms would present technical difficulties in system integration, esp. regarding grid power balancing.
Table 4: Grid-Connect Opportunities Applied technology Expected financial volume Competitiveness Planning Wind farms utilising state-of-the-art large wind generators (i.e. 1-3 MW) Wind farms utilising second hand wind generators from European markets Wind farms feeding into isolated grids Hundreds of millions of USD Where wind resources are above 7-8 m/s, wind appears to be competitive with the cost of grid electricity. Two or more year time horizon Developer consortium including technology provider Engineering firms Financier Carbon traders Local partners Lack of defined feed-in tariff and risks of completing deal Difficulty of attracting major wind suppliers Financing arrangements PPAs Ability of TANESCO to pay Construction of towers (cranes), delivery of wind machines to site from coast A strong partner with government linkages is necessary to complete local negotiations. Understand the PPA-development process as a first step.
Constraints/obstacles
TANESCO operates twelve isolated networks - all based on small diesel engines: Kigoma, Mtwara, Lindi, Njombe, Mafia, Mpanda, Tunduru, Songea, Liwale, Ikwiriri, Masasi and Kilwa Masoko. These have a combined installed capacity of 31 MW but they effectively contribute about 15 MW due to aged machinery and lack of spare parts. These isolated networks may present an opportunity for mini-grid wind power, especially given the higher tariffs offered to isolated networks.
Ris/Danida, 2003.
Off-grid wind generation opportunities are similar to opportunities in the off-grid PV sector and, if it was better developed, an off-grid wind supply chain could follow the same model. However, suppliers questioned about wind generators said that there is little demand and it is sporadic. Little study has been made of existing demand for stand-alone wind generation units. The technical and geographical potential for off-grid wind is relatively high. Known wind resources are ample and 75 % of the population is off-grid. However, the economic potential for wind in off-grid areas is limited because incomes in off-grid areas tend to be relatively low. Unlike PV systems, wind power systems have a lower size limit (i.e. 200 W) meaning that they cannot be scaled down to sizes and unit prices small enough to be attractive to the majority of rural households or small- and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs). Therefore, estimating reliable market potentials for off-grid wind systems is considerably more difficult than for the PV market because any demand would depend greatly on wind resources (which yet has to be completely scoped out), trade-offs against other technologies, consumers ability to pay and assumed consumer demand. Two main areas of potential interest include: Domestic and small commercial. Only high-end consumers with relatively sophisticated knowledge of energy systems would buy wind generators. If it were assumed that 5 % of the large solar home system (SHS) market (i.e. over 100 Wp) instead bought a wind generator, this would reflect a total market potential market of about 2000 units. Missions, NGOs and governmental institutions. This is the area where there has been the most activity in the market place. The Rural Energy Agency (REA) has set aside funds for purchase of wind generators for rural institutions. As well, there is constant demand for small energy systems from missions and NGOs.
Table 5: Off-Grid Stand Alone Wind Generator Opportunities Applied technology Wind generators for stand-alone applications including household power, community institutions, small commercial sites, tourism and telecommunications. Components include generators, invertors, charge regulators, batteries, associated electrical spares. Total potential market size is unlikely to be above USD 15 million. A well-developed market might sell several hundred thousand USD worth of equipment per year. There is little competition in this sector. An aggressive marketer of wind generators could conceivably do well selling wind generators in addition to other products (gensets, PV) to the off-grid market. Wind generators are expensive items to keep in inventory. Any agent would have to ensure that his ability to stock and deliver units is on part with demand. Would use PV or diesel gen-set supply networks Wholesaler-retailer-technician Possible use of agents in windy target areas Sales and system design for NGO/mission, tourism and telecommunication would require tailored approach High cost of inventory Lack of consumer awareness and demand Need for marketing and education of consumers Need for information about wind regimes in wide areas Lack of installation and design capacity
Constraints/obstacles
See related report on Tanzanias solar energy sector: Target Market Analysis: Tanzanias Solar Energy Market.
Utilise the same supply chains that deliver PV systems Target approaches to the various market groups Work closely with the REA to develop procurement projects Train skilled installers to market product in target areas Avoid box-shifter dealers, focus on specialist that provide good customer service
Constraints/obstacles
10
Larger wind or biomass plants may be able to negotiate to fit under these agreements. However, if the size is significantly larger, the IPP may have to negotiate a new agreement.
11
Grid connection procedures TANESCO outlines on equipment, transmission and distribution requirements and standards, including the Interconnection Guidelines, that apply to the installation and to the operation of all equipment and interconnections. However, local project developers complain that TANESCO does not keep to defined standards for wind projects. Key permits required include the following: The National Environment Monitoring Agency (NEMA) approves environmental impact assessment (EIA). Registration at the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC). This organisation supports investors and is extremely helpful in providing assistance to investing companies. Generating license or preliminary licence. Land acquisition. The land ownership process is complex as it involves agreements with municipalities and villages. Land surveys must be completed as well as evaluation compensation paid to local groups. Title deed for the land is necessary (all land in Tanzania is owned by the government and a midterm lease or 99 year lease would have to be obtained). Standards and technical requirements So far, there are no accepted standards or grid codes for wind farms. Local developers are following Europeans standards. Public acceptance issues At present there are few Not-in-my-backyard issues with regard to wind in Tanzania. Land is widely available, and, in general, the locations where wind resources are high are sparsely populated. Issues may arise where wind generators are located next to areas important to bird life or game reserves.
12
Tax relief
Carbon credits
The following sections summarise the SPPT payment schemes as of 2008 in both grid-connected systems and off-grid systems.
13
These levels are set out in the table below. The seasonal adjustments are designed to lower prices paid during wet periods, when hydro power is more available.
Table 11: Grid-Connected Wind Tariffs Floor Price TZS Long-run marginal financial costs adjusted for 80.0 TZS/kWh avoided losses Seasonally adjusted Dry season Aug-Nov 96.0 TZS/kWh standardised Wet season Jan-Jul and 72.0 TZS/kWh Dec Price Cap Seasonally adjusted Dry season Aug-Nov 280.5 TZS/kWh standardised Wet season Jan-Jul and 210.4 TZS/kWh Dec (Exemplary period of validity: 1st January to 31st December, 2008) USD 0.064/kWh 0.0768/kWh 0.0576/kWh
0.224/kWh 0.168/kWh
For wind-based power generation in mini-grids, the payment process would be more complex, as there will be need for firm power from diesel generators to cover fluctuations in wind availability. Special tariffs paid for wind would have to be balanced against the costs of this spinning reserve. Therefore, wind in off-grid sites will not be as attractive as micro-hydro in mini-grids where it is available, and the incremental costs of setting up a wind-based mini-grid will necessarily be much higher than grid-connect.
Based on final recommendations of Standardised SPPTs for Tanzania, Final Draft June 2007.
14
Ashton Energy
Start-up company
Abbas Hirji, Director P.O. Box 5182 1st Floor Raha Towers Tel: (+255) (0) 222 137672 Mob: (+255) (0) 756 885 994 Email: abbas@ashtonenergy.com Internet: www.ashtonenergy.com
TANESCO
Programmatic grant and subsidy support Electricity sales & purchases. Pays for wind electricity
15
Minimum Price: The annually applicable tariff during the term of the agreement shall not be less than the price for the initial year, as set forth above. Maximum Price: The annually applicable tariff during the term of the agreement shall not exceed the prices, by type of SPP technology, set forth in the table below.
Table 15: Seasonally Adjusted Standardised Tariffs Season Months applicable to season August through November January through July and December Small hydro (TZS/kWh) 157.1 117.8 Wind (TZS/kWh) 280.5 210.4 Biomass (waste) (TZS/kWh) 200.7 150.5 Biomass (grown) (TZS/kWh) 246.1 184.6
From: Standardised Power Purchase Agreement for purchase of grid-connected capacity and associated electric energy between TANESCO and a small power project (revised draft). June 2007.
16
References
Nzali, A & Mushi, S. Wind Energy Utilization in Tanzania, PREA Workshop 2006. DFIC - Dr. Fromme International Consulting, The Potential of Renewable Energies in East Africa Wind Energy. East African Business Council. 2007. GTZ (2009): Business Guide Tansania, Eschborn. Ris National Laboratory/Danida: "Wind Measurements and Wind Power, Feasibility at Selected Sites in Tanzania, 2001-2002. Draft Final Report, May 2003. Standardised Small Power Purchase Tariffs for Tanzania. Final Draft Report June 2007. Ferrey, Steven, Standardised Power Purchase Agreement for purchase of grid-connected capacity and associated electric energy between TANESCO and a small power project (revised draft). June 2007.
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