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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Topics treated :
Introduction to Disaster (Risk) Management
Refresher Course on Geo-Information for Natural Disaster Reduction in Eastern Africa Department of Geography, Makerere University, 12-23 September 2005

Types of hazard Some statistics Disaster Risk Management Components Sources of information Exercise

Cees van Westen And N.M.S.I. Arambepola (ADPC)

Associated Institute of the

ISL 2004

ISL 2004

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disaster
A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

What are we talking about?


A disaster is .
a sudden calamitous event bringing great damage, loss or destruction

(Merriam Webster dictionary);


some rapid, instantaneous or profound impact of the natural

environment upon the socio-economic system" (Alexander, 1993)


an event, concentrated in time and space, which threatens a society or a

relatively self-sufficient subdivision of a society with major unwanted consequences as a result of precautions which had hitherto been culturally accepted as unwanted (Turner, 1976). an extreme event as any manifestation of the earth's system (lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere or atmosphere) which differs substantially from the mean (Alexander, 1993). an event that results in death or injury to humans, and damage or loss of valuable good, such as buildings, communication systems, agricultural land, forest, natural environment etc.

ISL 2004

ISL 2004

Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

What happened in 2004


2004 had the highest losses due to catastrophes ever: 250000 people killed US$ 145bn economic losses.

This map is pre - 2004

Source: MunichRe
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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

2005 will again be the largest


Hurricane Katrina Est.losses 120 billion US $

Natural disasters ?
Disasters occur when a damaging event

impacts the society. Disasters therefore are never natural! However, if a damaging effect impacts on the natural environment ?

ISL 2004

ISL 2004

Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) HAZARD

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disaster
VULNERABILITY

HAZARD MATERIALIZED

Disasters can be at different magnitude: When does a traffic accident become a disaster Disasters can be at different scales Individual-family-community-municipality. world

VULNERABILITY MATERIALIZED

Disasters can be fast or slow Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a disaster? Disasters can be predictable or unexpected Recent disasters in Netherlands: firework explosion, caf fire, airplane crash, animal diseases, flooding

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DISASTER

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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Hazard Classification(1)
By Orgin

Hazard Classification(1)
By Orgin
INTERNAL GEO-DYNAMIC PROCESSES HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
GLOBAL-REGIONAL-LOCAL PROCESSES

EXTERNAL GEODYNAMIC PROCESSES

Natural
Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Snow storm / avalanche Glacial lake outburst Lightning Windstorm Thunderstorm Hailstorm Tornado Cyclone/ Hurricane Asteroid impact Aurora borealis

Some human influence


Flood Dust storm Drought El Nio

Mixed natural /human influence


Landslides Subsidence Erosion Desertification Coal fires Coastal erosion Greenhouse effect Sealevel rise

Some natural influence


Crop disease Insect infestation Forest fire Mangrove decline Coral reef decline Acid rain Ozone depletion

Human
Armed conflict Land mines Major (air-, sea-, land-) traffic accidents Nuclear / chemical accidents Oil spill Water / soil / air pollution Groundwater pollution Electrical power breakdown Pesticides

SEISMIC
GROUND VIBRATION, SPECTRAL RESPONSE, ACCELERATION, INTENSITY

VOLCANIC

EROSION

LANDSLIDES

ERUPTIONS, PIROCLASTIC AND LAVA FLOWS, TSUNAMI, GAS-VAPOR EMISSIONS, ACID RAIN, GLACIER MELTDOWN, LAHARS

CLIMATE VARIABILITY, EL NIO, TROPICAL CONVERGENCE, TROPICAL WAVES, TROUGHS, CYCLONES, POLAR THRUSTS, OROGRAPHIC AND CONVECTIVE STORMS, TORNADOES

TORRENTIAL DEBRIS-FLOWS

Table 1: Classification of disaster in a gradual scale between purely natural and purely human-made.

GROUND FAILURE, LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, TSUNAMI, CONTINENTAL CRUST SUBSIDENCE-UPLIFT

INTENSE RAINFALL

DROUGHT

WIND

SOIL-NUTRIENT LOSS, SLOPE UNDERMINING, LAND DEGRADATION, EPHEMEROUS RIVER DAMMING AND BED AGGRADATION, TORRENTIAL SEDIMENTATION-DEJECTION

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ISL 2004

EXTREMES IN HYDRIC BALANCE: EXCESS-DEFICIT; FLOODS, INCREASE-DECREASE IN ALBEDO, LAND DEGRADATION

Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Hazard Classification (2)


Another subdivision is related to the main controlling factors leading to a disaster

Hazard Classification (3)


Another useful distinction that can be made between disaster is regarding their duration of impact and the time of forewarning
Disaster type Duration of impact
Instant Seconds-minutes Second-minutes Second-hours Second-decades Minutes Minutes Minutes-hours Minutes-days Minutes-decades Minutes-years Hours Hours-Days Hours-decades Days-months Weeks-months Years-Decades

Length of forewarning
Seconds hours Seconds minutes seconds-years Seconds- hours Seconds-hours Minutes hours Minutes days Second years Minutes weeks Hours days Seconds days Hours Days weeks Days months Months years

Frequency or type of occurrence


Random Seasonal/diurnal ; random Log-normal Seasonal; negative binomial Seasonal; irregular Seasonal/diurnal; Poisson Seasonal/diurnal; Poisson , gamma Random Seasonal; Markovian, gamma, log-normal Sudden or progressive Irregular Seasonal / irregular Seasonal / random Seasonal / irregular ; exponential , gamma Seasonal / irregular ; binomial , gamma Seasonal /irregular Progressive (threshold may be crossed)

Meteorological Drought Dust storm Flood Lightning Windstorm Thunderstorm Hailstorm Tornado Cyclone/ Hurricane

Geomorphological/ Geological Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Landslide Snow avalanche Glacial lake outburst Subsidence Groundwater pollution Coal fires Coastal erosion

Ecological Crop disease Insect infestation Forest fire Mangrove decline Coral reef decline

Technological Armed conflict Land mines Major (air-, sea-, land-) traffic accidents Nuclear / chemical accidents Oil spill Water / soil / air pollution Electrical power breakdown Pesticides

Global environmental Acid rain Atmospheric pollution Greenhouse effect Sealevel rise El Nio Ozone depletion

Extra terrestrial Asteroid impact Aurora borealis

Table 2: Classification of disaster related to the main controlling factors leading to a disaster.

Lightning Snow avalanche Earthquake Tornado Landslide Intense rainstorm Hailstorm Tsunami Flood Subsidence Volcanic eruption Cyclone/ Hurricane Forest fire Coastal erosion Drought Crop disease Desertification

Table 3: Classification of disasters by duration of impact, length of forewarning, and frequency or type of occurrence (Alexander, 1993)
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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disaster statistics

Disaster statistics

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ISL 2004

Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disasters 2004

2004: most costly year

MunichRe 2005

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ISL 2004

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disasters per continent


Increasing vulnerability
ongoing trends
Population growth climate variability and climate change Migration of population to cities Higher vulnerability of industrialized societies increased environmental degradation Densely populated communities More people living on marginal lands Greater unplanned settlements due to land scarcity High risk due to natural and manmade hazards

ISL 2004

ISL 2004

Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Results due to high exposure of Infrastructure


Increased vulnerability to

Primary hazards such as earthquakes, floods, cyclones etc. Potential high impact due to secondary hazards like urban fire, technological and other accidents etc High environmental problems and inconvenience to urban populations More control measures to save facilities,innovative design options are needed
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Climate for investment in infrastructure and other types of development is not encouraging in most developing countries

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In most cities problems connected to governance has become normal.In most cases power sharing is seen with central government.Most areas in city are controlled by central government. Infrastructure facilities are shared by many LGs and CG Mitigation initiatives are not acceptable to all. Urbanization accompanied by significant increase in the scale of poverty of urban population has put pressure on city administration.They can not get revenue from poor but services have to be provided Urban poverty disproportionately affects weaker layers and fuels tensions (such as ethnic and racial tensions),gender sensitivity,less attention to disable groups etc Growth of disparities between affluent and disposed will create different units such as divided cities within a city

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disaster risk management


Disaster management can be defined as the

Disaster Risk Management


The process, by which assessed risks are mitigated, minimized or controlled through engineering, management of land use practices or other operational means. This involves the optimal allocation of available resources in support of group goals. The systematic management of administrative decisions, organisation, operational skills and abilities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society or individuals to lessen the impacts of natural and related environmental and technological hazards.

effective organization, direction and utilization of available counter-disaster resources The modern view is that there must be predisaster mitigation measures to avoid or reduce impact of disasters. Pre-disaster measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are called Risk Management

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Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

What is Management?
Management

Disaster management cycle


consists of decision-making activities undertaken by one or more individuals to direct and coordinate the activities of other people in order to achieve results, which could not be accomplished by any one person acting alone.

disaster prevention disaster preparedness disaster relief Rehabilitation Reconstruction

Management is required when two or more

persons combine their efforts and resources to accomplish a goal, which neither can accomplish alone.
Traditional approach. Is it really a cycle?
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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Expand-contract model
In this model, disaster management is seen

The Disaster Crunch Model


Fig u re 3 Th e Cr un c h Mod el

as a continuous process. There is a series of activities that run parallel to each other rather than as a sequence
Fig u re 2 E x p a nd Con trac t Mod e l

Prog ress ion o f V uln era bi lity o f a co mmu n ity

It is a framework for understanding and explaining the causes of disaster and adopts a cause-effect perspective. It is a pressure model. Vulnerability (pressure) is seen as rooted in socio-economic and political processes. These have to be addressed (released) for disaster risk reduction. The model reveals a progression of vulnerability. It begins with underlying causes in society that prevents satisfying demands of the people.

U nd e rly ing C a u se s

P re v e n tio n an d m iti ga ti o n st ra nd P re p a re d ne s s s tr a n d R e lie f a n d R e s p on s e s tr a n d

D yn am ic Pr ess u res

R e c o ve ry a nd R e h a b ilit a ti on s tra n d

U ns afe C ondi tion s

CR IS IS
Vu ln er ab ility
Ti m e

D IS A STE R

H a zar d eve nt

Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

The Disaster Crunch Model


Aggravating Factors Of Vulnerability


Natural resources and environmental rapid deterioration Population and productive activities overoverexposed to hazards More vulnerable constructions and productive activities Inadequate capacity for risk management

Population expansion leads to inadequate housing and land needs. Prices of urban land increase. Low -income people may not be able to afford it. Rural urban migration adds more pressure. There is thus expansion of urban areas outwards. The result is ad-hoc urban sprawling The low-income people may occupy land with low demand that may be disaster-prone. They may not have the income to adhere to safe practices and building codes. They may not have proper sanitary conditions, water supply and other utilities. The local governments may come under pressure to provide them but would be unable to do so. But these are dynamic communities that grow and change adding more and more pressure on limited resources. They may show low literacy rates, lack of awareness of disaster potential or preparedness, lack of proper health care which decrease strength to withstand disaster impact, malnutrition, lack of training for livelihoods, disaster prone housing etc. These are unsafe conditions which increase the vulnerability of these communities. They would have no capacity to face a hazard event. When a hazard event happens these communities would bear the brunt of impact and their losses would be greater. Their capacity to recover is minimal
ISL 2004

Inadequate management of natural resources

Random urban growth

Obsolete construction codes

Weak risk management institutions

Population incapable of assessing its vulnerability and confronting emergencies

Inadequate territorial management

Reactive and centralist disaster attention paradigms still prevail

Inadequate development model


Mora ISL 2004 (2005) and Keipi

Underestimation of hazards

Obsolete risk management legislation

Decision makers lack awareness and willingness

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

The Disaster Crunch Model


Fig u re 4 Th e Re lea se Mod e l C om m uni ty P re p are dn ess

Technocratic view of risk management


Problem

Physical vulnerability High death toll and damages of infrastructure attributed to severity of hazard,extensive and recurrent rehabilitation needs Uncontrolled characteristics of hazard events, Physiography of the prone area,Lack of inadequacy of protective infrastructure,Failure of forecasting and warnings Improve the protection capacity of infrastructure Improve technology,design the structures to resist Eradicate bad habits,ignorance through awareness creation and capacity building of professionals Improve forecasting,warning, response mechanisms,preparedness measures Formulate action plans,enact appropriate legislation,land use control,building standards,risk mapping

Symptoms as perceived

R ISK R E D U CT ION

H azar d P reve nt ion

H azar d M itiga tio n

The causes:

Safer C ondi tion s

Solutions:

R ed u ction s in D yn am ic Pr ess ures

A dd ress U nd erly ing C ause s

Th e Pr og ress of S afety as a r everse o f the P rog ress ion of Vul n era b ili ty

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Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Development view for risk management


Key elements of Disaster Management


Pre-disaster phases
Risk Identification
Hazard Assessment

Problem

Post-disaster phases
Preparedness Emergency response
Humanitarian assistance / rescue Clean-up, temporary repairs and restoration of services Damage assessment

Physical vulnerability is a symptom of its economic vulnerability High death toll and damages to infrastructure attributed to severity of hazard,extensive and recurrent rehabilitation needs Land use policies that have encourage rapid population growth,Land distribution and resource allocation policies,,insufficient employment opportunities,deterioration of social insurance within the society Change the emphasis on structural mitigation programs aimed at physical protection and the over reliance on technology solutions. Initiate action to reduce the exposure of population to hazard events through advance planning of land use Building up more resources of the most vulnerable sections of community. Create credit facilities,opportunities to borrow money,create capital investments opportunities Promote more initiatives for risk transfer

Mitigation

Risk Transfer

Symptoms as perceived

Rehabilitation and Reconstruction


Rehabilitation/re construction of damaged critical infrastructure Macroeconomic and budget management

Physical/structur al mitigation works Land-use planning and building codes

Insurance/ reinsurance

Causes

Vulnerability assessment

Financial market instruments

Early warning systems. Communication systems Monitoring and forecasting

Solutions:

Risk Assessment

Economic incentives

GIS mapping and scenario building

Education, training and awareness

Privatization of public services with safety regulations Calamity funds

Shelter facilities Emergency planning Contingency planning (utility companies / public services)

Revitalization of affected sectors (exports,tourism) Incorporation of disaster mitigation components in reconstruction

Mobilization of recovery resources

ISL 2004

Sources: Worldbank, DMF & USAID


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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Risk
Risk is the likelihood or probability of a

Risk
Risk is the exposure or the chance of loss due to a

hazard event of a certain magnitude occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of hazards. -ADPC

particular hazard for a given area and reference period. It may be expressed mathematically as the probability that a hazard impact will occur multiplied by the consequences of that impact. -ADPC

Risk is the actual exposure of something of human value to a hazard. Often regarded as the product of probability and loss.. -ADPC
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Note: Definitions of risk in the hazards literature vary from those that equate risk with probability to those that see risk as the product of a probability and a particular kind of impact occurring
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Introduction to GIS

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Risk Management Process

Risk reduction
Effective risk reduction involves mitigation

Risk management has three components.


Risk identification Risk reduction Risk transfer

Risk identification has to be done through mapping and using other available technological options. It is usual to allocate risk management to a special body at national level. Usually it is a National Disaster Management Organization (NDMO) at national level.Others support should be obtained within a National Action Plan for DM At local level it may be the responsibility of a Disaster Mitigation Committee, which administers risk management. This varies in different countries depending on administrative patterns and needs.

measures in hazard prone areas. It may also involve overcoming the socioeconomic, institutional and political barriers to the adoption of effective risk reduction strategies and measures in developing countries. The systematic development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities, hazards and the unfolding of disaster impacts throughout a society, in the broad context of sustainable development.
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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Risk Transfer

Hazard, Vulnerability and elements at risk


Natural hazard (H): the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of time and within a given area. Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk (see below) resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss). Elements at risk (E): the population, properties, economic activities, including public services, etc. at risk in a given area.

Effective risk transfer involves different tools such as insurance,tax policies,special measures focused on land management. Organizational structure,policies,legislation etc. is required for effective implementation of risk transfer strategies for a country or local government area.

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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?


RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT Hazard=
PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude Degree of damage. Function of: magnitude of event, and type of elements at risk

Risk assessment

Vulnerability =

Amount =

Quantification of the elements at risk e.g . Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc. Loss of function or economic activities Number of people

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Source: OAS , Steve Bender (2003) ISL 2004

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Tangible versus intangible losses


Losses as consequence of a natural hazard can either be: tangible when a monetary value can be assigned or intangible when no monetary value can be assigned.

TYPOLOGY OF LOSSES
MEASUREMENT
TANGIBLE INTANGIBLE

FORM OF LOSS

INDIRECT

? ?

? ?

DIRECT

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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Effects:
Physical Environmental Economical Social Cultural Political

Direct losses
Result from the physical interaction of the natural phenomenon with the damageable property. The magnitude of the damage may be taken as the cost of restoration of property to its conditions before the event, or its loss in market value if restoration is not worthwhile. Direct damages are a function of many variables !

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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Examples of Direct Effects

Indirect losses

Direct physical damage:


Houses destroyed Houses damaged (to certain degrees) Damage to content of buildings (destroyed) Other buildings damaged (commercial, institutional etc.) Critical facilities destroyed (hospitals etc) Critical facilities damaged (functionality..) Lifelines disrupted (water, gas, electricity, telecommunications) Transportation systems disrupted. Death to human beings; Injury of human beings (in certain degrees) Psychological effects (shock, panic) Offices / factories out of function / partially functioning Loss of goods / stocks / livelyhood

Direct social damage:


Direct economical damage:


Are caused by disruption of physical and economic linkages of the economy. Examples include interruption of traffic flow, loss of industrial production, loss of personal income and business profit.

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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Examples of Indirect Effects Short term

Examples of Indirect Effects Long term

Indirect economical damage:


Long term economical damage:


Factories / shops / offices out of business or partly functioning Loss of services (gas , water, electricity, telecommunications) for different periods in different areas Costs for repair of lifelines and transportation systems Costs for temporary housing, relocation of people, Repair of damage of buildings Replacement of contents (e.g. Furniture , computers etc) Costs for clean-up, demolition. Costs for planning reconstruction. Compensation payments by government & insurance companies Hospitalization, More disabled persons Homelessness Disruption of communities (other neighbours, schools, etc.) Disruption of social and governmental functions. Psychological effects (grief, apathy, anger) Social disorder (riots, insecurity, looting, abuse of help)

Costs for reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure Increase in unemployment Decrease in production, export, tourism, economic growth Diversion of investments

Long term social effects


Indirect social damage:


Politcal instability Increase of poverty Increase of social insecurity (violence, crime rate, etc)

Also long term positive effects are possible:


Increasing economic activities in certain sectors (construction industry) Opportunities to adopt new technology Revitalisation of economy Improved disaster prevention and preparedness

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Indirect environmental damage

Depends on initial economic, political, cultural and religious factors of A society.


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Introduction to GIS

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