Beruflich Dokumente
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Key Issues
The essentials of Euro Area membership Convergence criteria Optimal currency area theory Recent macro performance of the Euro Area Single currency membership and external shocks The crisis for some Euro Area members
Euro Essentials
Monetary union is a deepening of economic integration between participating countries A single currency requires a common interest rate for the Euro Zone i.e. a common monetary policy Countries have locked their currencies together forever and adopted one currency as a medium of exchange Euro as a currency floats against US dollar and sterling e be at o s are also equ ed (in principle) eep Member nations a e a so required ( p c p e) to keep control of government borrowing i.e. They are not allowed to run large budget deficits > 3% of their GDP (in normal times)
Convergence Criteria
Inflation: Average inflation over previous year must not exceed by more than1 5% that of the three lowest inflation than1.5% countries Government Finances Budget deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP Gross government debt must not exceed 60% of GDP Interest Rates: i ld t bonds t t d by A Average yield on govt b d must not exceed b more than 2% bond yields of three lowest inflation countries Exchange Rate Stability: Currency must have adhered to fluctuation margins of the ERM in two previous years without severe tension
Percent
A2 Economics
(4) Countries are prepared to use fiscal transfers to even out some of the regional economic imbalances within the European currency union
Highly Flexible
Divergent
Convergent
A2 Economics
Microeconomic Benefits of Entry (1) Potential Gains for consumers Gains from price transparency Reduction in the transactions costs of travelling within Europe (e.g. costs of currency exchange) Cheaper mortgages if interest rates are lower
Microeconomic Benefits of UK Entry (2) Possible gains for businesses Invoicing with just one currency Lower transactions costs when trading Stable currency and low inflation might allow businesses to fund their capital investment at lower real interest rates
A2 Economics
Microeconomic Disadvantages
(1) Changeover Costs from joining the Euro: Menu Costs (vending machines, catalogues, franking f ki machines, postage hi t Customer confusion (imperfect information) (2) Higher prices
Potential loss of consumer welfare if suppliers increase prices when converting from sterling to euro
10
Germany - the largest country with the Euro - a driver of policy decisions?
Percent
Percent
11
2000=100
12
Percent
13
And diverging unit labour costs which affects competitiveness in Euro Area
Index
1996=100
14
Percent
15
Percent
Some EU states are not ready to join the Euro E.g. interest rates still Poles apart
Percent
16
PERCENT
EUR/LVL
EUR/EEK
17
EUR/GBP
USD/EUR
18
19
Longer-term challenges
Growth and employment creation in the Euro Area has not been noticeably higher than in countries outside o tside the c rrenc union currency nion 2008-10 crisis has highlighted the problems of setting a common interest rate for 16 nations Larger economic imbalances within the 16 nation currency union over wage levels, trade balances and productivity will a so need to be add essed if also eed o addressed a d p oduc y the Euro Zone is to avoid future crises Several weaker countries have become uncompetitive inside the Euro and this requires painful corrective policies which will be unpopular
20