IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICIES ON BANK PERFORMANCES

Submitted to Lovely Professional University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Submitted by: Group No:-QF51 Alka Singh Roll No.Q1705A29

Supervisor: Abhishek Chaudhary Lecturer

Gandeep Kaur Roll No Q1705A34 Priti Singh Roll No.Q1705A31

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY PHAGWARA 2012

DECLARATION
We hereby declare that the capstone project work entitled Impact of Monetary Policy on bank performances is an authentic record of my own work carried out at Lovely

Professional University as requirements of Industry Internship project for the award of degree of B-Tech (Bio-Tech) + MBA(Finance ), Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, under the guidance of Mr. Abhishek Chaudhary

Gagandeep kaur Alka singh Priti Singh

Date: 10 Dec 2011

Certified that the above statements made by the student are correct to the best of our knowledge and belief.

Mr.Abhishek Chaudhary Lecturer

Faculty Coordinator

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PREFACE
MBA is a stepping-stone to the management carrier and to develop good manager it is necessary that the theoretical must be supplemented with exposure to the real environment. Theoretical knowledge just provides the base and its not sufficient to produce a good Manager thats why practical knowledge is needed. Therefore the research product is an essential requirement for the student of MBA. This research project not only helps the student to utilize his skills properly learn field realities but also provides a chance to the organization to find out talent among the budding managers in the very beginning. In accordance with the requirement of MBA course I have capstone project on the topic impact of monetary policy on bank Performances. The main objective of the research project was to study the effect of monetary policy on performance of banking sector For conducting the research project sample size considered all bank as whole (In public sector bank- SBI and in private sector bank -ICICI) the information regarding the project research was collected through the secondary data analysis

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TABLE OF CONTENT
Topic Page No.

DECLARATION.................................................................................02 PREFACE............................................................................................03 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................04 MONETARY POLICES .........................................................04 TOOLS OF MONETORY POLICY.........................................06 BANKING SECTOR.................................................................08

LITERATURE REVIEW...................................................................09 RESEARCH METHODOLGY...........................................................13 OBJECTIVES.............................................................................13 NEED..........................................................................................14 SCOPE........................................................................................14 TYPE OF RESEARCH..............................................................14 LIMITATION.............................................................................15 VARIBLES.................................................................................15 SOURCE OF DATA COLLECTION........................................15 HYPOTHEISIS FROMULATION............................................16

REFRENCES.........................................................................................20 BIBLIOGRAPHY..................................................................................21

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INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER 1

_____________________________________________________________________ MONETARY POLICY Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, often targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic growth and stability.1 Types of monetary policy The distinction between the various types of monetary policy lies primarily with the set of instruments and target variables that are used by the monetary authority to achieve their goals. Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting Price Targeting Monetary Aggregates Fixed Rate Gold Standard Mixed Policy Target Market Variable: Interest rate on overnight debt Long Term Objective: A given rate of change in the CPI

Level Interest rate on overnight debt The supply spot price of the growth in money

A specific CPI number

A given rate of change in the CPI

Exchange The

currency The spot price of gold Usually interest rates

The spot price of the currency Low inflation as measured by the gold price Usually unemployment + CPI change

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary policy

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MONETARY POLICY TOOLS

Instruments of the Monetary Policy The instruments at the disposal of the RBI for managing money supply, interest rates and exchange rates are: Liquidity Management

Cash Reserve Ratio Open Market Operations Managing Credit Expansion

Interest rate Management

Repo Rate Bank rate Rates paid on government securities

Forex Management

Tweaking the basket of currencies against which rupee rate is determined Market Intervention

Liquidity Management

Cash Reserve Ratio: Banks reserve liquidity through their power to create credit. Presently in India, banks are required to maintain the following reserves: Cash Reserve ratio: 8.25% of demand and time deposits (w.e.f. 24.05.2008) Statutory Liquidity ratio: 25% of demand and time deposits

Open Market Operations: Banks as well as other financial institutions, such as insurance companies, mutual funds and corporate with surplus cash are big investors in government securities. When RBI wishes to inject liquidity into the market, it has another option of buying government securities.

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Managing Credit Expansion: CRR and OMO reduce liquidity in the system and reduce the ability of banks to create credit. RBI also controls sector specific expansion of credit by specifying maximum amounts that can be lent, minimum margins to be maintained and higher risk weights.

Interest Rate Management

Repo rate: Repo rate or repurchase rate is a swap deal involving the immediate sale of securities and simultaneous purchase of those securities at a future date, at a designated price. It could also be an overnight deal with sale taking place on day one and repurchase on day two.

Bank rate: RBI provides refinance to banks against funds deployed by banks in specified sectors such as export finance portfolio of the banks. In the past, the bank rate used to be the primary interest rate tool of RBI.

Rates paid on government securities: RBI, as a banker to the government, helps government to borrow from the market by selling their securities. RBI also determines the timing, size, and rate paid on the issues.

Foreign Exchange Management

Tweaking the basket of currencies: The exchange rate of rupee is calculated by RBI based on the exchange rates of basket of currencies of countries with which India has significant trade transactions

Market intervention: Large balance of payment surpluses and build up of Forex reserves are bound to strengthen the rupee in the exchange market. This market force cannot be counted by RBI for long periods of time. However, by intervening in the market by offering to buy any amount of foreign currency at a particular rate, RBI can prevent the sudden strengthening of rupee.

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AN OVERVIEW OF THE BANKING SECTOR A bank is a financial institution that provides banking and other financial services to their customers. A bank is generally understood as an institution which provides fundamental banking services such as accepting deposits and providing loans.2

Functions of a central bank may include: managing the country's foreign exchange and gold reserves and the Government's stock register regulating and supervising the banking industry setting the official interest rate used to manage both inflation and the country's exchange rate and ensuring that this rate takes effect via a variety of policy mechanisms Implementing monetary policies.

2 3

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bank http://www.mbaknol.com/business-finance/organizational-structure-and-role-of-banks-in-

india/
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LITERATURE REVIEW

CHAPTER 2

_________________________________________________________________________ Sathye .M (1988), Efficiency of banks in a developing economy: The case of India the objective of this paper is to measure the productive efficiency of banks in a developing country, that is, India. The measurement of efficiency is done using data envelopment analysis. Two models have been constructed to show how efficiency scores vary with change in inputs and outputs. The efficiency scores, for three groups of banks, that is, publicly owned, privately owned and foreign owned, are measured. The study shows that the mean efficiency score of Indian banks compares well with the world mean efficiency score and the efficiency of private sector commercial banks as a group is, paradoxically lower than that of public sector banks and foreign banks in India. The study recommends that the existing policy of reducing non-performing assets and rationalization of staff and branches may be continued to obtain efficiency gains and make the Indian banks internationally competitive which is a declared objective of the Government of India.

Ketkar K.W. (1992) Public sector banking, efficiency and economic growth in India This paper develops a framework that integrates Harrod-Domar growth model and McKinnonShaw Hypothesis via Molho's dynamic adjustment mechanism. The model is used to determine the impact of bank nationalization through aggressive bank branch expansion programs and priority sector credit allocation on India's financial savings, investment, productivity and GDP. The empirical findings indicate that the bank nationalization policy has been a mixed blessing. The aggressive bank branch program since 1969 resulted in an increased in savings, investment, productivity of capital and GDP, however, the priority sector credit allocation policy did not fully achieve its desired goals.

Patnaik. A (1999 )Measuring the Efficacy of Monetary Policy in India Using a Monetary Measure Keeping in view the financial sector reforms and introduction of a number of financial innovations, the present study empirically examines the efficacy of monetary policy in achieving its objective of price stability and growth in the post-1999 era. Unlike the conventional method of using the short-term interest rate or the money supply as the stance of monetary policy, the present study constructs a narrative monetary measure and uses the same as a stance of monetary policy. Using Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Fixed Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis, it is
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concluded that the monetary policy has very little impact on the final target variables, i.e., growth and prices.

Harun.S.M, Hassan.M.K & Puritan., (2002) examines the impact of monetary policy actions on the returns of investment companies. The data collected from History of the Feds operating procedures and used the relevant policy tool (federal funds target rate And/or the discount rate) to identify different monetary policy environments. Data collected from year 1962 to 2000. The research examines that an expansionary monetary policy action increases the returns of investment companies, while a contractionary policy action depresses the returns by taking different factors and variables which Measure business conditions using three different approaches were, First, by look at the stock market and identify the business conditions according the states of the stock market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Standard and Poors 500 index returns. The paper observes that monetary policy actions had asymmetric effects on returns across different monetary policy environments.

Okoye.E & Udeh. F.N, (2009) examined the effect of monetary policy on corporate profitability in the banking sector with a reflection on the Nigerian economy. Data collected from secondary sources - banks Annual Reports and Statement of Accounts, CBN Annual Reports, the Bullion, News papers, past research reports and various other issues. Data collected from 2004 t0 2008. Regression analysis used for the data interpretation. Factors and variables used for analysis were corporate profits, Interest rate, legal reserve. Interest rate had no influence on corporate profitability of banks in Nigeria. Legal reserve ratio had negative significant influence on corporate profitability of banks in Nigeria. This was because this reserve was usually held by the government and the fund was not readily available for investment.

Fordham.N. P University, (2009) analyzed the monetary policy effect on assets of commercial banks in the United States. Vector auto regression was used for this and found that when interest rates drop, bank productive assets decrease as a share of total assets, if all the productive assets are loans, and initially increase the bigger the proportion of securities in banks productive assets. The reason behind the movements in productive asset share to total asset is based in the fact that the share of profits set aside as excess reserves is constant. A
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drop in interest rates that increases retained earnings increases excess and total reserves and if no new deposits are taken and no new equity is raised, the share of productive assets in total assets decreases. Once the bank has some securities in its productive assets a drop-in the interest rates will push down return-on-assets and will push up the share of productive assets in total assets. The more securities a bank have the more the ratio of productive to total assets rises after an interest rate drop.

Rauch, C. Steffen, S. Hackethal, A. Tyrell, M. (2009) analyzed how macroeconomic factors, and particularly the central banks monetary policy, influence the liquidity creation of banks. They measured the liquidity created by Germanys state owned savings banks over the 1997 to 2006 period and examine its determinants in a GMM framework focusing on bank specific as well as macroeconomic factors. In terms of influence factors we find highly significant and robust values for economy and monetary policy indicators. It can be shown that liquidity creation seems to strongly depend negatively on monetary policy tightness: a monetary policy tightening induces a decrease in created liquidity. Liquidity is not only of importance for banks but also for the health and functioning of the real economy.

Majid .S. h KaShabiri and Yusuf M.R (2009) analyzed the impact of monetary policy shocks on the conventional and Islamic banks in a dual banking system. Variance decomposition analysis was used for this research..Time period of this study was 1996-2006. Author found that the monetary policy shocks are more destabilizing on the Islamic bank than the conventional bank. Islamic bank balance sheets are more sensitive to interest rate changes compare to conventional bank.

Vashisht. B .L and Pandit .P (2010) Analyzed the Monetary Policy and Credit Demand in India and Some EMEs. Null hypothesis used for it .time period was 1988-2006 .Factors used for the research was interest rate, exchange rate. Result showed that the monetary policy is effective in India and other EMEs in realizing its stated targets. The traditional interest rate channel and credit channel, is working in India and other EMEs.

Black. K. L Hancock. D, and Passmore .W (2010) Analyzed the bank lending channel of monetary policy and its effect on mortgage lending. Empirical analysis was used for this
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research .Time period of this study was 1995-2005. This research conducted on Traditional banks, market based bank, transition bank. The bank lending channel suggests that banks play a special role in the transmission of monetary policy because monetary policy has an effect on banks cost of funds in addition to changes in the risk-free rate.

Bhaumik K. S, Dang .V and Kutan Ali M. (2010) described the differences in impact of monetary policy changes on less risky short term and more risky medium term lending. Using bank-level data from India, they examined this issue and also test whether the reaction of different types of banks (i.e., private, state and foreign) to monetary policy changes was different in easy and tight policy regimes. The result suggested that there were considerable differences in the reactions of different types of banks to monetary policy initiatives of the central bank and the bank lending channel of monetary policy might be much more effective in a tight money period than in an easy money period. They discussed the policy implications of the findings. Their result from India were preliminary and further studied were needed to see whether their findings can be generalized to emerging economies or developing countries in general.

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 3

______________________________________________________________________

Research methodology is a very organized and systematic way through which a particular case or problem can be solved efficiently. It is a step-by-step logical process, which involves: 1. Defining a problem 2. Laying the objectives of the research 3. Sources of data 4. Methods of data collection

5. Data analysis & processing 6. Conclusions & Recommendations BACKGROUND OF PROBLEM STATEMENT The Reserve Bank has pulled up the effective overnight rate from 3.25% in March 2010 to 8.25% today, a rise of 500 basis points. If one looks at the three-year trajectory for food prices, October 2008- October 2011, the rise in prices is 45%. Overall, inflation has gone up from point to point by about 25%. The component of inflation that has pushed the WPI maximum has been food prices.

PROBLEM STATEMENT In this study we have attempted to analyze the impact of monetary policies on Indian banking sector

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
1. To find of variables (dependent and independent) effecting monetary policies and banking sector 2. To find out the impact of monetary policy on the banks profitability.

3. To find out the impact of monetary policy on the banks credit standard 4. To study the functioning of Indian banking system and role of monetary policy in the working of Indian banking system

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NEED OF STUDY Rise in Increase inflation rate in double digit Frequent RBIs intervention Increase in interest rate by banks Rise in loan rates Credit and Risk-taking channels of monetary policy. 30 per cent per annum credit expansion has resulted in a quantum jump in the lending portfolio of banks, and this increases the potential for an increase in non-performing assets (NPAs) Credit expansion of banks Maintaining the price stability

SCOPE OF STUDY
The Role of Monetary Policies in sustaining banking sector Growth in India Changes in the Money Supply Process and Its Impact on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Indian banking sector Monetary Stability and Performance in the Banking Industry of Emerging Markets Monetary Policy and Banking in the Wake of the World Financial Crisis Measuring the Efficacy of Monetary Policy in India Using a Monetary Measure Regulation of monetary policies Affect Performance and Stability of banking sectors Monetary and Financial Sector Reforms in India Monetary Policy Affect Bank Credit Standards Emerging Issues in Banking and Financial Sector in India

TYPE OF RESEARCH
Descriptive Causal Research Under this type the researcher has to use the facts and information already available and analyze them to make evaluation of the market. In analytical research the researcher has to use the facts already available, and analyze these to make the critical evaluation data of the material. Data has been collected from the balance sheet of the various banks (SBI and ICICI) and RBI used these data for the research.

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LIMITATIONS OF STUDY The limitations encountered during the course of present study are detailed as under:1. Since the study is based on pre-analyzed variables there is possibility of error due to gap between the truth and the observation. 2. The selection of sample was based on convenience sampling and it might not be truly representative of the universe. 3. Although utmost care has been taken to get accurate results, yet because of the risk of ambiguities and misinterpretation on the part of data analysis, some element of inaccuracy could have been there.

RESEARCH DESIGN This section, of the study will examine the steps taken to know the impact of monetary policy on banks profitability in India. In this design, the following factors will be considered: sample size method of data collection Data collection, and statistical tools for data analysis. SAMPLE SIZE
The total population includes whole banking sector and sample in private sector bank is ICICI and in public sector bank is SBI representing the population

DATA COLLECTION Data for the study will be collected from secondary sources. Sources:-RBI, ICICI and SBI online site Data of Bank profitability and Credit standard taken money control Data of CRR,DR,PLR,RR,REPO and SLR taken from the RBI

STATISTICAL TOOLS USED Ratio analysis (profitability and debt asset ratio) Multiple Regression analysis.

Variables Independent variables:- Bank profitability ratio and Credit standard Dependent variables:- CRR ,DR , PLR , RR , REPO and SLR

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HYPOTHESIS FORMULATION 1. The impact of monetary variables on Credit standard (CS of private sector bank
ICICI).): If the following monetary variables have significant impact on CS t, then it can be said that monetary policy, if channeled properly, can be used as an effective tool to credit standard of banking sector. To find out the impact of monetary variables on CS t, the following regression equation is estimated. CS t = 0 + 1CRR+ 2DR+ 3PLR + 4BR + 5RR+ 6Repo + 7SLR + u1i A set of hypothesis is tested: Hypothesis I: H0: 1 = 0 i.e. CRR has no influence on CS H1: 1 0 i.e. CRR has a significant impact on CS Hypothesis II: H0: 2 = 0 i.e. DR has no influence on CS H1: 2 0 i.e. DR has a significant impact on CS Hypothesis III: H0: 3 = 0 i.e. PLR has no influence on CS H1: 3 0 i.e. PLR has a significant impact on CS Hypothesis IV: H0: 4 = 0 i.e. BR has no influence on CS H1: 4 0 i.e. BR has a significant impact on CS Hypothesis V: H0: 5 = 0 i.e. RR has no influence on CS H1: 5 0 i.e. RR has a significant impact on CS Hypothesis VI: H0: 6 = 0 i.e. REPO has no influence on CS H1: 6 0 i.e. REPO has a significant impact on CS Hypothesis VII: H0: 7= 0 i.e. SLR has no influence on CS H1: 7 0 i.e. SLR has a significant impact on CS

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2. The impact of monetary Variables on the profitability of private sector bank (ICICI). If the following monetary variables have significant impact on PRO
t,

then it can be said that

interest profitability of private sector banks are affected by the monetary policy changes. To find out the impact of monetary variables on PRO t, the following regression equation is estimated. PRO t = 1 + 8CRR+ 9DR+ 10PLR + 11BR + 12RR+ 13Repo +u2i A set of hypothesis is tested: Hypothesis I: H0: 8 = 0 i.e. CRR has no influence on PRO H1: 8 0 i.e. CRR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis II: H0: 9 = 0 i.e. DR has no influence on PRO H1: 9 0 i.e. DR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis III: H0: 10 = 0 i.e. PLR has no influence on PRO H1: 10 0 i.e. PLR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis IV: H0: 11 = 0 i.e. BR has no influence on PRO H1: 11 0 i.e. BR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis V: H0: 12 = 0 i.e. RR has no influence on PRO H1: 12 0 i.e. RR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis VI: H0: 13 = 0 i.e. REPO has no influence on PRO H1: 13 0 i.e. REPO has a significant impact on PRO

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3.The impact of monetary variables on the profitability of public sector bank (SBI):If the following monetary variables have significant impact on PRO t , then it can be said that profitability of public sector banks are affected by the monetary policy changes. To find out the impact of monetary variables on PRO t, the following regression equation is estimated. PRO t = 2 + 14CRR+ 15DR+ 16PLR + 17BR + 18RR+ 19Repo + u3i A set of hypothesis are tested: Hypothesis I: H0: 14 = 0 i.e. CRR has no influence on PRO H1: 14 0 i.e. CRR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis II: H0: 15 = 0 i.e. DR has no influence on PRO H1: 15 0 i.e. DR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis III: H0: 3 = 0 i.e. PLR has no influence on PRO H1: 3 0 i.e. PLR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis IV: H0: 4 = 0 i.e. BR has no influence on PRO H1: 4 0 i.e. BR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis V: H0: 5 = 0 i.e. RR has no influence on PRO H1: 5 0 i.e. RR has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis VI: H0: 6 = 0 i.e. REPO has no influence on PRO H1: 6 0 i.e. REPO has a significant impact on PRO Hypothesis VII: H0: 7= 0 i.e. SLR has no influence on PRO H1: 7 0 i.e. SLR has a significant impact on PRO

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4. The impact of monetary variables on Capital Adequacy Ratio (CS of public sector
bank SBI)):If the following monetary variables have significant impact on CS t, then it can be said that monetary policy, if channeled properly, can be used as an effective tool to credit standard of banking sector. To find out the impact of monetary variables on CS t, the following regression equation is estimated. CAR t = 0 + 1CRR+ 2DR+ 3PLR + 4BR + 5RR+ 6Repo + 7SLR + u1i A set of hypothesis is tested: Hypothesis I: H0: 1 = 0 i.e. CRR has no influence on CAR H1: 1 0 i.e. CRR has a significant impact on CAR Hypothesis II: H0: 2 = 0 i.e. DR has no influence on CAR H1: 2 0 i.e. DR has a significant impact on CAR Hypothesis III: H0: 3 = 0 i.e. PLR has no influence on CAR H1: 3 0 i.e. PLR has a significant impact on CAR Hypothesis IV: H0: 4 = 0 i.e. BR has no influence on CAR H1: 4 0 i.e. BR has a significant impact on CAR Hypothesis V: H0: 5 = 0 i.e. RR has no influence on CAR H1: 5 0 i.e. RR has a significant impact on CAR Hypothesis VI: H0: 6 = 0 i.e. REPO has no influence on CAR H1: 6 0 i.e. REPO has a significant impact on CAR Hypothesis VII: H0: 7= 0 i.e. SLR has no influence on CAR H1: 7 0 i.e. SLR has a significant impact on CAR

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REFRENCES http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/rbi-vs-inflation-experts-debatevaluemonetary-policy_604272.html Humphrey, D. L, and Lawrence B. Pulley, (1997) Banks responses to deregulation: Profit, technology, and efficiency," Journal of Money Credit, and Banking, Vol., 29, N0. 1, February, pp. 73-92. Humphrey, D. L, and Lawrence B. Pulley, (1997), Banks responses to deregulation: Profit, technology, and efficiency, Journal of Money Credit, and Banking, Vol., 29, N0. 1, February, pp. 73-92. Bernanke B and I Mihov (1995), Measuring Monetary Policy, NBER WP No. 5145. Somoye.R.O.C (2008), The Performances of Commercial Banks in PostConsolidation Period in Nigeria: An Empirical Review, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences ISSN 1450-2275 Issue 14, page 6273.

Sinha.P & Dutta.D(2011), Modeling Profitability of Indian Banks, MPRA Paper No. 31156, posted 27, page 1-16.

Staikouras.C

&Wood.G.E.(1999),

The

Determinants

of

European

Bank

Profitability, International Business & Economics Research Journal Volume 3, Number 6, page no.57-68Flamini V., McDonald C., and Schumacher L. January 2009
The Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability in Sub-Saharan Africa .working paper Gibson, H.D. (2005). Developments in the Profitability of Greek Banks, Bank of Greece Economic Bulletin 24, 7-28. Goddard, J., Molyneux, P., & Wilson J. O. S. (2004). The profitability of European bank: a cross sectional and dynamic panel analysis. The Manchester School 72 (3), 363-381 Gordon, David and Eric Leeper, The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification, Journal of Political Economy 102, 1994, 1228-1247.

Hamdan, Bassam. And Masih, Mansur. The Impact of Monetary Policy on Deposit and Lending Rates in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Application of Ardl Approach. Journal of International Finance & Economics, October 20, 2008.

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