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MARK SCHEME for the October/November 2009 question paper for the guidance of teachers

4040 STATISTICS

4040/01 Paper 1, maximum raw mark 100

This mark scheme is published as an aid to teachers and candidates, to indicate the requirements of the examination. It shows the basis on which Examiners were instructed to award marks. It does not indicate the details of the discussions that took place at an Examiners meeting before marking began, which would have considered the acceptability of alternative answers. Mark schemes must be read in conjunction with the question papers and the report on the examination.

CIE will not enter into discussions or correspondence in connection with these mark schemes.

CIE is publishing the mark schemes for the October/November 2009 question papers for most IGCSE, GCE Advanced Level and Advanced Subsidiary Level syllabuses and some Ordinary Level syllabuses.

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Syllabus 4040

Paper 01 B1 B1 M1 A1 [4]

(b) 45 (allow 4446) (ii) For three 'whole canoes' and 'something' For an accurate portrayal of 33

(i) To test whether respondents clearly understand the questions. To test whether the responses to the questions provide the information required. (ii) Advantage. Cheap, compared to interviewing costs. Disadvantage. Likely low response rate.

B1 B1 B1 B1

[4]

(i) Any appreciation of the need to 'uncumulate' the figures Correct values (either ordered or unordered) 12 11 11 9 8 14 12 17 17 12 17 (8 9 11 11 12 12 12 14 17 17 17) (ii) Mean = 140/11 (indication of a correct method) = 12.7(272... ) Median = 12 (ft provided the M1 in (i) has scored) (iii) Because the data are bi-modal

M1 A1 M1 A1 B1ft B1 [6]

(i) 4 (ii) (a) 1, 2, 3, 4 (ft 1 up to 'their N') (b) Correct method (can be implied by two correct results) N 1 2 3 4 P(N) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

B1 B1ft M1

Any three correct (with or without others) All four correct (and no others) Their values of N and P(N) presented in a suitable table

A1 A1 B1

[6]

UCLES 2009

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Page 3 5

Syllabus 4040

(i) Both 103s in the correct places (ii) Both 13s in the correct places (iii) 37 correct (ft 'their 103' 66) 39 correct (ft 52 'their 13') 89 correct (ft 52 + 'their 37') 77 correct (ft 166 'their 89') 30 correct (ft provided both row and column totals tally)

[7]

(i) Any attempt to use 55 and 440 (55/440) 1000 = 125 (per thousand) (ii) Management Technical Skilled Unskilled 3/20 1000 0.04 = 6 9/75 1000 0.17 = 20.4 18/230 1000 0.41 = 32.1 25/115 1000 0.38 =82.6

M1 M1 A1

Correct method used in any one category One correct value or expression seen All other correct values or expressions seen Summing the rates for the four categories 141.10 (per thousand)

(iii) The category of employment structure in the factory is not the same as in the standard population. B1

[9]

(i) (a) Quantitative (b) Continuous (ii) Most of the lengths are close to that intended and so the process is quite precise. (iii) (a) Median = 5.0074 or 5.0075 (b) LQ = 5.0055 (c) 90th percentile = value in the range 5.0105 to 5.0108 inclusive (iv) Sight of an attempt at the cum. freq. at 5.0084 26 (v) cfs 11 and 77 seen or implied Indication of (higher tolerance limit cf minus lower tolerance limit cf) 77 11 = 66

B1 B1 M1 A1 B1 B1 B2 M1 A1 B1 M1 A1ft

UCLES 2009

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Page 4

Syllabus 4040

Paper 01 M1 A1 A1

(vi) (a) Correct method for either measure seen, or implied by a correct result Median item is [11 + (66/2)] =44th on graph 5.0077 (b) LQ item is [11 + (66/4)] =27.5th on graph 5.0064

[16]

(a) (i) 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 (ii) 1/6 (iii) 1/36 (iv) Correct probability expression using their answers to (ii) and (iii) 1/108 (b) P(first) = 1/10 P(fourth) = 9/10 8/9 7/8 1/7 =1/10 P(last) = 9/10 8/9 . 2/3 1 = 1/10 Indication of correct method for either fourth or last P(fourth) = 1/10 P(last) = 1/10 Valid conclusion from their probabilities

B1 B1 B1 M1 A1 B1 M1 A1 A1 B1ft

(c) Any appreciation of the fact that the two operations must involve discs of the same colour B1 P(green discs moved) = 7/10 6/15 = 7/25 P(white discs moved) = 3/10 10/15 = 1/5 Correct method for either, including seeing 15 (or 14) as the second denominator M1 P(G) = 7/25 A1 P(W) = 1/5 A1 Attempt to sum their probabilities for the two sequences M1 7/25 + 1/5 = 12/25 (= 0.48) A1

[16]

(i) Any comment which states or implies that the standard gauge is the independent variable. (ii) Correctly plotted points (1 each error or omission) (iii) Because A, C, D and E have the four lowest x-values (or equivalent) (iv) Method for calculating overall mean Plot of (21, 26) Method for calculating either semi-average Plot of (9.25, 14.25) Plot of (32.75, 37.75) (v) Straight line through at least two of their points plotted in (iv)

B1 B3 B1 M1 A1 M1 A1 A1 B1

UCLES 2009

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Page 5

Syllabus 4040

Paper 01 B1 B1 B1ft

(vi) m = AWRT 1.0 c = AWRT 5.0 y = x + 5 (for substituting their stated values of m and c in an equation of the required form) (vii) The equation shows that the new gauge will give a reading 5MPa greater than the accurate reading given by the standard gauge. For any correct comment about their equation in context The new gauge calibration therefore needs to be adjusted 5 MPa downwards. For correct description of required change to calibration cao

M1 A1 [16]

10

(i) (a) Any appreciation of area being proportional to frequency M1 Correct heights 6, 20.5, 3 (provided working seen can score even if not drawn) (one mark each) A3 Correct heights 32, 37, 21 (must be drawn) B1 (b) Allow either 60 under 70 (tallest rectangle) or 80 under 100 (highest frequency) B1 (c) Attempt to sum 41 and 15 and divide by 7 8 (ii) (a) Use of correct class mid-points, seen or implied Sight of a correct method for the mean Mean = 49.8 (cao and must be 3sf) Sight of any correct method for s.d. or variance Standard deviation = AWRT 21.3 or Variance = AWRT 453.6 21.3 (cao and must be 3sf) (b) Any use of the values 90 and 42 A convincing explanation (can imply M1 even if 90 and 42 not mentioned) M1 A1 B1 M1 A1 M1 A1 A1 M1 A1

[16]

M1 A1

(ii) x represents the number who chose to play netball and tennis, but not hockey. B1 (iii) Showing all working necessary for a valid comparison to be made. Netball WWW (iv) 6 and 11 seen in correct places. 17 and 39 seen in correct places. 34 and 3 seen in correct places. (b) (i) 521/'their total' 360 (ii) Any appreciation of the need to use r2 or 1.26 r2 = 25 (126/100) or 25 (2772/2200) r = AWRT 5.6 cm M1 A1 B1 B1 B1 M1 M1 A1 A1

UCLES 2009

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Page 6

Syllabus 4040

Paper 01 M1 M1 A1

(iii) Attempt to obtain total sales for 2008 (may be seen as part of (ii)) Attempt to multiply 2008 total sales by (360 sum of angles)/360 2772 (100/360) = 770

[16]

UCLES 2009

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