South Asia Military Balance

Center for Strategic and International Studies Arleigh A.
Burke Chair in Strategy

1800 K Street, N.W. Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1 (202) 775-3270 Fax: 1 (202) 457-8746 Web: http://www.csis.org/burke
The Asian Conventional Military Balance in 2006:

The South Asian Military Balance
Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy acordesman@aol.com
Martin Kleiber Researcher mkleiber@csis.org
Working Draft for Review and Comment Revised, June 26, 2006
Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance
6/26/06
Page 2
Introduction
The rise of China as a major power has triggered a new debate over the military balance in Asia, but it is only one of the trends shaping regional military forces. Taiwans faltering military development has helped destabilize the Taiwan Straits. Japan is reasserting its strategic role in the region, causing tension with both China and South Korea. North Koreas persistence in creating nuclear forces is changing the balance on the Korean Peninsula, as are cuts in US forces. The shift in US forces from Okinawa to Guam, and increased US reliance on long-range strike forces is also affecting the balance. There are fewer signs of significant shifts in the balance in Southeast Asia. The major change in the threat has been the emergence of transnational threats from neo-Salafi Islamist extremists, and continuing internal ethnic, sectarian, and tribal tensions. The main concern is internal security and not the military balance. In the case of South Asia, Indian and Pakistan continue to build-up their nuclear and missile forces, and India is seeking to expand its strategic reach in the Indian Ocean area. Kashmir remains a potential military fault line. Once again, however, the emergence of transnational threats from neo-Salafi Islamist extremists, and continuing internal ethnic, sectarian, and tribal tensions dominates the security problems in the region. Like the rest of Asia, internal security has become a dominant concern. The following analysis of quantitative force strength and trends can only address some of these issues. It focuses on conventional and nuclear forces, military spending, and other quantifiable aspects of the military balance. As such, it can only touch on a few aspects of force quality, and cannot begin to address the problem of internal security. There is no way to portray the relative strength of ideology and religion, and counts of the manpower strength of non-state actors are virtually meaningless. It is important, however, to look beyond debates over strategy and possible intentions and to consider those facts that can actually be measured. Far too often analysts pick key trends out of context, and exaggerate the overall presence or build-up of opposing military forces. Data on military spending are taken out of context, as are arms purchases that may introduce important new military technologies and capabilities but only have a limited impact on overall force modernization. Accordingly, the tables and charts that follow are not intended to provide a comprehensive picture of military capability or effort. They are only intended to be a tool that provides perspective. It is also important to recognize that they do have significant uncertainties. The sources they are drawn from are unclassified, and have many gaps and contradictions. The authors have had to extrapolate in some cases, and use a mix of sources in others. The data and trends shown are almost certainly broadly correct, but there is no way to create such an analysis that is precise and certain.
2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.
6/26/06
Page 3
List of Tables and Charts

INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................2 Figure 1: South Asian Military Forces in 2006: Part 1...................................................................................4 Figure 1: South Asian Military Forces in 2006: Part 2...................................................................................5 Figure 2: South Asian Military Manpower in Key Powers: 2006 ..................................................................6 Figure 3: South Asian Main Battle Tanks: 2006 ............................................................................................7 Figure 4: South Asian Modern Main Battle Tanks versus Total Holdings: 2006...........................................8 Figure 5: South Asian Armored Fighting Vehicles: 2006 ..............................................................................9 Figure 6: South Asian Modern AFVs versus Total Holdings of Other Armored Vehicles: 2006 ................10 Figure 7: South Asian Artillery Weapons in Key Powers: 2006..................................................................11 Figure 8: South Asian Artillery Strength: 2006.............................................................................................12 Figure 9: South Asian Modern Self-Propelled Artillery versus Total Holdings: 2006.................................13 Figure 10: South Asian Fixed and Rotary Wing Combat Aircraft: 2006 .....................................................14 Figure 11: South Asian Fixed Wing Combat Aircraft: 2006........................................................................15 Figure 12: Northeast Asian Modern Air Force Combat Aircraft versus Total Combat Aircraft: 2006 ........16 Figure 13: South Asian Rotary Wing Combat Aircraft: 2006 ......................................................................17 Figure 14: South Asian Modern Attack and Armed Helicopters by Type: 2006 .........................................18 Figure 15: South Asian Naval Combat Ships: 2006.....................................................................................19 Figure 16: South Asian Major Naval Combat Ships in Key Powers: 2006..................................................20 Figure 17: South Asian Modern Major Missile and ASW Surface Vessels by Type: 2006.........................21 Figure 18: South Asian Submarines by Type: 2006.....................................................................................22 Figure 19: Western Naval Combat Ships Affecting the Asian Balance: 2006 ..............................................23
6/26/06
Page 4
Figure 1: South Asian Military Forces in 2006: Part 1

India Manpower (1,000s) Total Active Regular National Guard & Other Reserve Paramilitary Strategic Missile Forces (1,000s) ICBM IRBM SSBN/SBLM Army and Guard Manpower (1,000s) Regular Army Manpower Reserve (1,000s) Total Main Battle Tanks Active AIFV/Lt. Tanks Total APCs Self-Propelled Artillery Towed Artillery MRLs Mortars SSM Launchers Light SAM Launchers AA Guns Air Force Manpower (1,000s) Total Combat Aircraft Bombers Fighter/ Ground Attack Fighter Recce/FGA Recce COIN/OCU AEW C4I/BM/EW MR/MPA Transport Aircraft Tanker Aircraft Total Helicopters Armed Helicopters Major SAM Launchers Light SAM Launchers AA Guns * Total SAM Launchers Pakistan Bangladesh Afghanistan Myanmar Sri Lanka
1,325 1,325 1,155 1,293.3
619 619 302
125.5 125.5 126.2
27 27 -
428 428 107.25
111 111 5.5 30.4
1,100 1,100 960 3,978 1,900 817 150 5,625 180 6,720 some 3,500 2,339
550 550 2,461 1,266 260 1,629 52 2,350 14,200 2,990 1,900
110 110 180 40 180 140 50 some 16
27 27 some some some some some some some some some
350 350 150 105 325 278 30 80 some 46
78.1 78.1 39.9 62 62 192 157 22 784 27
170 852 380 386 9 2 288 6 296 60 some some -
45 331 51 143 15 2 27 25 144 6 -
6.5 83 34 29 3 29 -
5 5 13 5 -
12 125 22 58 15 66 -
18 21 13 16 49 14 -
6/26/06
Page 5
Figure 1: South Asian Military Forces in 2006: Part 2

India Total Naval Manpower (1,000s) Major Surface Combatants Carriers Destroyer-Guided Missile Other Destroyer Frigate-Guided Missile Other Frigate Corvettes Patrol Craft Missile Torpedo and Coastal Inshore, Riverine Submarines SLBN SSN SSG SS/SSK Mine Vessels Amphibious Ships Landing Craft Support Ships Marines (1,000s) Naval Air Naval Aircraft Bomber FGA Fighter MR/MPA Armed Helicopters ASW Helicopters SAR Helicopters Mine Warfare Helicopters Other Helicopters Pakistan Bangladesh Afghanistan Myanmar Sri Lanka
55
24
13
15
1 8 9 8 28
6 1 -
2 3 -
8 6 10
6 3 1
10 14 9
11 13 47
2 10 46
19 18 7 10 32 1.2 7,000 34 15 20 34 17 6 51
8 3 9 1.4 9 9 -12 14
4 14 8 -
11 15 .8 -
4 5 -
*** Includes both ASW and SAR Helicopters
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page 6
Figure 2: South Asian Military Manpower in Key Powers: 2006

(In thousands)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Afghanistan Army Navy Air Force Marine 27 0 0 0
Bangladesh 12.5 9 6.5 0
India 1325 55 170 1.2
Myanmar 428 13 12 0.8
Pakistan 619 24 45 1.4
Sri Lanka 111 15 18 0
6/26/06
Page 7
Figure 3: South Asian Main Battle Tanks: 2006

(Number in active service)
Sri Lanka
62
Pakistan
2,461
Myanmar
150
India
3,978
Bangladesh
180
Afghanistan*
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, Routledge, 2005 plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page 8
Figure 4: South Asian Modern Main Battle Tanks versus Total Holdings: 2006
Sri Lanka-Total
Sri Lanka-Modern
Pakistan-Total
Pakistan-Modern
Myanmar-Total
Myanmar-Modern
India Total
India Modern
Bangladesh Total
Bangladesh-Modern
Afghanistan-Total
Afghanistan-Modern
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Afghani Afghani Banglad Banglad India -stan -stan -esh esh Modern Modern Total Modern Total Type 85 T-72/T-80 T-90 Total MBTs 0 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 180 0 1,925 330 -2,255-
India Total
Sri Sri Myanm Myanm -Pakistan -Pakistan -Lanka -Lanka -ar ar-Total Modern Total Modern Total Modern 0 50 0 275 320 0 150 -595980 0 0 0 0 62
3,978
-50-
6/26/06
Page 9
Figure 5: South Asian Armored Fighting Vehicles: 2006

(Number of Tanks, AIFVs, APCs, Recce in active service)
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
1,000 Afghanistan
2,000 Bangladesh 180 0 0 40 180
3,000 India 817 1,700 110 190 3,978
4,000 Myanmar 325 0 115 105 150
5,000 Pakistan 1,266 0 0 0 2,461
6,000 Sri Lanka 192 62 15 0 62
7,000
APCs AIFVs Recce Lt. Tanks Tanks
* * * * *
6/26/06
Page10
Figure 6: South Asian Modern AFVs versus Total Holdings of Other Armored Vehicles: 2006
Sri Lanka-Total
Sri Lanka-Modern
Pakistan-Total
Pakistan-Modern
Myanmar-Total
Myanmar-Modern
India-Total
India-Modern
Bangladesh-Total
Bangladesh-Modern
Afghanistan-Total
Afghanistan-Modern
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Afghani Afghani Banglad Banglad -India -stan -stan -esh -esh Modern Modern Total Modern Total BTR-80 BMP-2 APC Type 90 APC MBTs (Modern) Total AIFVs * * 0 0 0 * 70 0 0 0 -70400 0 1,000 0 2,355 -3,355-
-India Total
Sri Sri Myanm Myanm -Pakistan -Pakistan -Lanka -Lanka -ar ar-Total Modern Total Modern Total Modern 0 0 55 0 120 0 0 595 695 -7153,727 25 49 0 0 -74356
6,795
-55-
6/26/06
Page11
Figure 7: South Asian Artillery Weapons in Key Powers: 2006

14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 MRLs Towed Arty SP Arty APCs OAFVs Tanks
Afghanistan * * 0 * * *
Bangladesh 0 140 0 180 40 180
India 180 5625 150 817 2000 3978
Myanmar 30 278 0 325 230 150
Pakistan 52 1629 260 1266 0 2461
Sri Lanka 22 157 0 192 102 62
6/26/06
Page12
Figure 8: South Asian Artillery Strength: 2006

9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Afghanistan Assault Guns MRLs T owed Arty SP Arty * * * 0
Bangladesh 16 0 140 0
India 2339 180 5625 150
Myanmar 60 30 278 0
Pakistan 1900 52 1629 260
Sri Lanka 27 22 157 0
6/26/06
Page13
Figure 9: South Asian Modern Self-Propelled Artillery versus Total Holdings: 2006
Sri Lanka-Total
963
Sri Lanka-Modern
Pakistan-Total
4,291
Pakistan-Modern
260
Myanmar-Total
388
Myanmar-Modern
India-Total
12,675
India-Modern
150
Bangladesh-Total
140
Bangladesh-Modern
Afghanistan-Total
Afghanistan-Modern
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
6/26/06
Page14
Figure 10: South Asian Fixed and Rotary Wing Combat Aircraft: 2006
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Afghanistan Air Force Hel Navy Hel Army Hel Air Force Fixed Wing Navy Fixed Wing Army Fixed Wing 13 0 0 5 0 0
Bangladesh 29 0 0 83 0 0
India 296 91 0 852 34 0
Myanmar 66 0 0 125 0 0
Pakistan * 26 131 331 9 0
Sri Lanka 49 0 0 21 0 0
6/26/06
Page15
Figure 11: South Asian Fixed Wing Combat Aircraft: 2006

Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Afghanistan Air Force Fixed Wing Navy Fixed Wing Army Fixed Wing 5 0 0
Bangladesh 83 0 0
India 852 34 0
Myanmar 125 0 0
Pakistan 331 9 0
Sri Lanka 21 0 0
6/26/06
Page16
Figure 12: Northeast Asian Modern Air Force Combat Aircraft versus Total Combat Aircraft: 2006
China-Total
China-Modern
Japan-Total
Japan-Modern
Taiwan-Total
Taiwan-Modern
US PACOM Total
US PACOM Modern
South Korea Total
South Korea-Modern
North Korea-Total
North Korea-Modern 0 500 North North South -Korea -Korea -Korea Modern Total Modern Su-25 MiG-29 Hawkeye XP E-2T M-2000-5 F-16 EC-2 F-15 Su-30 Su-27 J-10 Total 34 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -54540 0 0 4 0 0 283 0 2 0 0 0 -289540 * 318 1,000 South Korea Total 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
US US -Taiwan -Taiwan -Japan -Japan -China -China PACO PACO Modern Total Modern Total Modern Total M M Total 0 0 6 4 57 146 0 0 0 0 0 -213479 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 150 0 0 0 -160300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 110 62 -1822643
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Page17
Figure 13: South Asian Rotary Wing Combat Aircraft: 2006

Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
50 Afghanistan
100 Bangladesh 29 0 0
150
200 India 296 91 0
250 Myanmar 66 0 0
300 Pakistan * 26 131
350
400 Sri Lanka 49 0 0
Air Force Hel Navy Hel Army Hel
13 0 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author. *indicates an unspecified number.
6/26/06
Page18
Figure 14: South Asian Modern Attack and Armed Helicopters by Type: 2006
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
10
12
14
16
Afghanistan Lynx Mi-35 Mi-24 KA-27 0 0 0 0
Bangladesh 0 0 0 0
India 0 0 0 9
Myanmar 0 0 0 0
Pakistan 6 0 0 0
Sri Lanka 0 13 1 0
Source: Based primarily on material in the IISS Military Balance 2005-2006, plus data drawn from USPACOM sources and US experts. Some data estimated or corrected by the author.
6/26/06
Page19
Figure 15: South Asian Naval Combat Ships: 2006

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Afghanistan Landing Craft Amphibious Mine Other Patrol Missile Patrol Frigates Corvettes Destroyers Carriers Submarines SSNs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bangladesh 14 0 4 23 10 5 0 0 0 0 0
India 10 7 18 33 8 17 28 8 1 19 0
Myanmar 11 0 0 60 11 0 4 0 0 0 0
Pakistan 0 0 3 4 6 7 0 0 0 11 0
Sri Lanka 5 4 0 111 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
6/26/06
Page20
Figure 16: South Asian Major Naval Combat Ships in Key Powers: 2006
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Afghanistan Missile Patrol Major Surface Carriers Submarines 0 0 0 0
Bangladesh 10 5 0 0
India 8 54 1 19
Myanmar 11 4 0 0
Pakistan 6 7 0 11
Sri Lanka 2 0 0 0
6/26/06
Page21
Figure 17: South Asian Modern Major Missile and ASW Surface Vessels by Type: 2006
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Myanmar
India
Bangaladesh
Afghanistan
0
Afghanistan Nandimithra PFM Sabqat Jalalat II Tariq FFG Houxin PFM Osa II PFM Vibhuti FSG Veer FSG Kora FSG Khukri FSG Talvar FFG Godavari FFG Brahmaputra FFG Rajput DDG Delhi DDG Viraat CV Durdarsha PFM Durbar PFM Osman FFG Bangabandhu FFG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10
Bangaladesh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 1 1
20
India 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 6 4 4 3 3 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
30
Myanmar 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
40
Pakistan 0 1 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
50
Sri Lanka 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
60
6/26/06
Page22
Figure 18: South Asian Submarines by Type: 2006

(Number in active Service)
7
0 Australia Collins SSK Cakra SSK Challenger SSK 6 0 0 Cambodia 0 0 0 Indonesia 0 2 0 Laos 0 0 0 Malaysia 0 0 0 New Zealand 0 0 0 Philippines Singapore 0 0 0 0 0 4 T hailand 0 0 0
6/26/06
Page23
Figure 19: Western Naval Combat Ships Affecting the Asian Balance: 2006
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 US UK Russia
Submarines 80 15 54
Carriers 12 3 1
Missile Patrol 0 0 35
Major Surface 118 34 66
Mine 26 22 41
Amphibious 39 7 22

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Center for Strategic and International Studies Arleigh A.

Burke Chair in Strategy

The Asian Conventional Military Balance in 2006:

Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy acordesman@aol.com

Martin Kleiber Researcher mkleiber@csis.org

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

List of Tables and Charts

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

Figure 1: South Asian Military Forces in 2006: Part 1

1,325 1,325 1,155 1,293.3

619 619 302

125.5 125.5 126.2

428 428 107.25

111 111 5.5 30.4

110 110 180 40 180 140 50 some 16

27 27 some some some some some some some some some

350 350 150 105 325 278 30 80 some 46

78.1 78.1 39.9 62 62 192 157 22 784 27

170 852 380 386 9 2 288 6 296 60 some some -

45 331 51 143 15 2 27 25 144 6 -

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

Figure 1: South Asian Military Forces in 2006: Part 2

*** Includes both ASW and SAR Helicopters

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

Figure 2: South Asian Military Manpower in Key Powers: 2006

Afghanistan Army Navy Air Force Marine 27 0 0 0

Bangladesh 12.5 9 6.5 0

India 1325 55 170 1.2

Myanmar 428 13 12 0.8

Pakistan 619 24 45 1.4

Sri Lanka 111 15 18 0

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

Figure 3: South Asian Main Battle Tanks: 2006

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

Figure 5: South Asian Armored Fighting Vehicles: 2006

2,000 Bangladesh 180 0 0 40 180

3,000 India 817 1,700 110 190 3,978

4,000 Myanmar 325 0 115 105 150

5,000 Pakistan 1,266 0 0 0 2,461

6,000 Sri Lanka 192 62 15 0 62

APCs AIFVs Recce Lt. Tanks Tanks

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance

Figure 7: South Asian Artillery Weapons in Key Powers: 2006

0 MRLs Towed Arty SP Arty APCs OAFVs Tanks

Bangladesh 0 140 0 180 40 180

India 180 5625 150 817 2000 3978

Myanmar 30 278 0 325 230 150

Pakistan 52 1629 260 1266 0 2461

Sri Lanka 22 157 0 192 102 62

2006 All Rights Reserved to CSIS.

Cordesman & Kleiber: The South Asian Military Balance