EP01 Contingency Planning

EP 01
Emergency Preparedness Competency
01
U N H CR
U N H CR
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Distance Learning with UNHCR and the University of Wisconsin Disaster Management Center Prepared by UNHCR Emergency Preparedness and Response Section in collaboration with InterWorks and the UWDMC
U N H CR
01
U N H CR
Contingency Planning
EP 01
Self Study Module

Distance Learning with UNHCR and the University of Wisconsin Disaster Management Center
U N H CR
Prepared by UNHCR Emergency Preparedness and Response Section in collaboration with InterWorks and the UW-DMC
March 2000
Acknowledgments
This course draws heavily on Contingency Planning: A Practical Guide for Field Staff by the UNCHR Division of Programme and Operational Support. A number of UNHCR officers generously gave their time to be interviewed during the development of this course including, Maureen Connolly, Bernard Doyle, Lois Purdham-Kidane, Alfonse Malanda, Kasidis Rochanakorn, Craig Sanders, John Solecki, Bill Tall, and Alan Vernon. Other staff in the Emergency Preparedness and Response Section also assisted in the process. Cover photograph InterWorks archive Field-level preparedness and contingency planning exercise organized by UNHCR and the Jamaican Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management in Jamaica, 1995.
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Table of Contents
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................... ii Welcome and Introduction ................................................................................................... v UNIT 1: Contingency Planning Principles ............................................................................ 1 Unit 1 Pretest ...................................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 1: Planning for Contingencies ............................................................................... 5 Contingency Planning ......................................................................................................... 5 Why Plan? ........................................................................................................................... 6 Events Suitable for Contingency Planning ............................................................................ 7 Planning Process .................................................................................................................. 8 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 13 Self-Assessment Questions ................................................................................................ 15 Chapter 2: Partners In The Planning Process ..................................................................... Who Should Plan? ............................................................................................................. The Benefits of Partnerships in Planning ............................................................................ Contingency Planning as Consensus Building .................................................................... Which Partners Are Involved? ............................................................................................ Planning Resources ............................................................................................................ Summary .......................................................................................................................... Self-Assessment Questions ................................................................................................ Chapter 3: Initiating and Maintaining the Process ........................................................... Initiating the Process ......................................................................................................... Maintaining the Plan ......................................................................................................... Planning Team Processes ................................................................................................... Summary .......................................................................................................................... Self-Assessment Questions ................................................................................................ 19 19 21 21 22 24 25 26 29 29 30 33 35 37
UNIT 2: Contingency Planning Tools ................................................................................. 41 Unit 2 Pretest .................................................................................................................... 43 Chapter 4: Contingency Planning Scenarios and Projecting Needs ................................. Contingency Planning Scenarios ........................................................................................ Generating Scenarios ........................................................................................................ Projecting Needs ............................................................................................................... Developing the Needs Table .............................................................................................. Testing the Assumptions .................................................................................................... Summary .......................................................................................................................... Self-Assessment Questions ................................................................................................ 45 45 48 49 52 56 57 58
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Chapter 5: Resource Assessment ........................................................................................ Resource Inventories .......................................................................................................... How to Prepare Resource Inventories ................................................................................. Physical Resource Inventories ............................................................................................. Human Resource Inventories ............................................................................................. Sectoral Lists ..................................................................................................................... Summary .......................................................................................................................... Self-Assessment Questions ................................................................................................ Chapter 6: Identifying Service Gaps ................................................................................... Identifying Potential Gaps ................................................................................................. Timeline Gap Identification Sheets ..................................................................................... Summary .......................................................................................................................... Self-Assessment Questions ................................................................................................
61 61 62 63 65 68 70 71 77 77 80 84 85
UNIT 3: Process and Plan Example ..................................................................................... 89 Unit 3 Pretest .................................................................................................................... 91 Chapter 7: Starting the Process and Working With the Roundtable .............................. 93 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 93 Initiation ........................................................................................................................... 94 Managing the Process ....................................................................................................... 97 Conducting the Roundtable .............................................................................................. 99 Other Functions of the Roundtable .................................................................................. 104 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 107 Self-Assessment Questions .............................................................................................. 108 Chapter 8: The Working Group and Sector Teams ......................................................... Functions of the Working Group ..................................................................................... Functions of the Sector Teams ......................................................................................... Data Which Are Not Published in the Plan ....................................................................... Summary ........................................................................................................................ Self-Assessment Questions .............................................................................................. Chapter 9: The Core Team: Preparing the Draft ............................................................. Introduction .................................................................................................................... Specific Components Prepared by The Core Team ........................................................... Summary ........................................................................................................................ Self-Assessment Questions .............................................................................................. Epilogue: What Happened in Ruritania? .......................................................................... 111 111 116 122 123 124 129 129 132 134 135 137
Enrollment, Final Examination and Course Evaluation .................................................. 139
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Welcome and Introduction

Welcome to this self study course on Contingency Planning (EP-01). This course is divided into three units. o Unit One examines the contingency planning process and the advantages and limitations of planning exercises. Some possible mechanisms for initiating the contingency planning process are also described. o Unit Two deals with the basics of contingency planning. This unit covers scenario generation, needs projection, resource assessment, and the identification of service gaps. o Unit Three presents an example of a contingency planning process, referring to the principles and tools that may be used to develop each component of the plan. This course supports UNHCRs Career Management System (CMS) as a training aid in this specific competency area. Contingency Planning is one of the competencies required for emergency preparedness: its code within the UNHCR competency catalogue is EP-01.
Learning Objectives for this Course

After taking this self-study course, you will be able to: o give examples of the uses and limits of contingency planning and a description of its place in the planning continuum o describe the importance of the contingency planning process o demonstrate some of the skills needed to prepare and maintain contingency plans o analyse the quality and usefulness of example contingency plans. This course is not intended as a recipe book or template for contingency planning and the approaches suggested are by no means exhaustive. Every situation is different and a solution that works well in one country or situation may be inappropriate in another. By considering the guidance offered in the course, you should be able to decide on the best approach for the situation for which you are planning.
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Organisation of this Course

This course is divided into three units. Each unit has three chapters dealing with the themes relating to that unit. Unit One focuses on the principles of contingency planning. Chapter 1 introduces contingency planning, shows its relationship to other forms of planning in the emergency continuum and describes the types of events suitable for contingency planning. Chapter 2 examines the involvement of partner agencies in the planning process. Chapter 3 looks at ways to initiate and maintain the contingency planning process. Unit Two provides a selection of tools useful for contingency planning exercises. Chapter 4 describes how to develop contingency plan scenarios and project needs accordingly. Chapters 5 demonstrates methods for cataloguing resourcesboth physical and human. Chapter 6 draws upon the previous two chapters to identify gaps that require management action or signal the need to revise the plan. Unit Three develops an example contingency plan. It draws on the principles of Unit One and uses the tools of Unit Two in the preparation of a contingency plan for a fictional country, Ruritania. This approach illustrates the links between the contingency planning process and the plan. It emphasises that there is no one correct way to plan. Chapter 7 looks at initiating the planning process and working with the roundtable. Chapters 8 reviews the functions and responsibilities of the working group and the sector teams. Chapter 9 examines the role of the core team, including editing the plan in preparation for review.
How to Use this Course

Self-study is more demanding than traditional classroom instruction in that each learner has to provide her or his own framework for study instead of having it imposed by the course or workshop timetable. One of the problems with self-study courses is that people begin with great enthusiasm at a pace that they cannot sustain. The best way to undertake this distance education course is to plan your own study schedule over a pre-set period by thinking ahead, and making your own schedule for study. The course is designed to take approximately 16 hours to complete. This includes the time for reading, reflecting, answering the questions in the text, and taking the final exam.
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Pre-tests
The pre-tests included at the beginning of each Unit allow you to test your general knowledge about planning for refugee and displaced population emergency situations. These two tests consist of 20 true/false questions each. Taking these tests before beginning each unit should stimulate you to compare your own thoughts about emergency response planning to those presented in the text. Also, the pre-test allows you to quickly determine how much you already know about the ideas presented here, and can help you to see which parts of the course you can move through more quickly or those you may need to spend more time on. If you score very well on all of the pre-tests, it is likely that you do not need to take this course for the purpose of learning new information, although it may be a useful review.
Instant Feedback: Self-assessment questions, exercises and worksheets

A drawback to self-study is that instant feedback from the instructor or your colleagues is not possible. To address the need for feedback, each chapter has five true-false questions and five multiple-choice questions. Exercises are found throughout the chapters to help you get the most from the materials. Each chapter concludes with a summary of key points as a review.
Final Examination
As a final complement to the self-assessment tests and problems which are included in the course text, there is a final examination administered by the University of WisconsinDisaster Management Center (UWDMC). When you have completed all the self-assessment tests and activities to your satisfaction, you may request a final examination package. Using the REQUEST FOR FINAL EXAMINATION form which accompanies these course materials, you will nominate a proctor to give you the examination and make arrangements for scheduling the time and place. Anyone in a position of educational or academic authority (for example, a registrar, dean, counselor, school principal or education officer) may serve as your proctor. Librarians and clergy are also acceptable proctors. For these UNHCR/UWDMC courses, your immediate supervisor or someone else of authority in a disaster/emergency management organisation may also be your examination proctor. The UW-DMC will mail the examination papers with instructions to your proctor who will monitor your taking the test. After your proctor returns your examination to the University of Wisconsin Extension, it will normally take 1-2 months for grading. Upon successful completion of the exam, the University will record your continuing education units (CEUs) on a university transcript and prepare your Certificate of Completion. Your certificate will be mailed to you along with current information about other distance learning opportunities.
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Serb refugees from the Krajina living in a collective center while waiting for private acccommodation. Bosnia & Herzegovina, UNHCR photo, R. Le Moyne, 1995
Contingency Planning Principles
UNHCR
Self Study Module EP-01
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PRETEST Contingency Planning Principles
Check T or F to indicate whether a statement is True or False
T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s
1. Contingency planning takes place as soon as an emergency happens. 2. No planning is needed for either very unlikely or very trivial events. 3. Contingency planning is a one-time exercise. 4. Continual review is needed to maintain contingency plans. 5. While the contingency planning process is important, the quality of the plan is paramount. 6. Population movements, changes in economic indicators, and outbreaks of disease may all prompt the need for contingency planning. 7. One way of incorporating the confidential, unpublished plans of other agencies into the contingency planning process is to invite partners who are aware of their contents to participate in the process. 8. Contingency planning must be conducted by scheduling separate, frequent meetings in order to get the job done. 9. Information related to the contingency planning process should be shared with all potential partner agencies. 10. Contingency planning is a consensus-building process leading to agreed upon scenarios and objectives. 11. Contingency planning can never prevent an emergency from happening. 12. Contingency planning enhances preparedness and improves emergency response. 13. Planning is free of any cost. 14. Staff time will be considered more valuable during an emergency than in non-emergency situations. 15. Centralised offices, such as branch office or international headquarters, are usually in a better position than field offices to make policy decisions.
T F s s
T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s
T F s s
16. The contingency planning process may build on sectoral or sub-sectoral plans that have been drawn up by agencies already working in those sectors. 17. Everyone likely to be responsible for operations after an emergency should be involved in the contingency planning process to some degree. 18. A multi-agency planning process generally produces better quality plans, builds relationships, and generates consensus. 19. Specialised structures or planning groups promote more rapid development of plans and are more sustainable than other structures. 20. It is important to establish a review timetable so that reviews are not forgotten.
T F s s
T F s s T F s s
T F s s
ni
Pre-test Answers
6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
T F T F T F
13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8.
F T F T
20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15.
T F T T T T
Pre-test Answers
7.
14.
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1
By studying this chapter you will learn about:
ap
Planning for Contingencies
s What contingency planning

is and why the process is as important as the plan
s Why contingency planning efforts

should be proportional to both the gravity and the likelihood of the emergency
s Why you should plan for

contingencies
s About the connections between

contingency planning, emergency response planning and early warning
s What events are suitable for

contingency planning
A contingency is an event that may occur but that is not certain. Contingency planning takes place for these possible events. The following is one definition of contingency planning.
Contingency planning is a forward planning process, in a state of uncertainty, in which scenarios and objectives are agreed, managerial and technical actions defined, and potential response systems put in place in order to prevent, or better respond to, an emergency or critical situation.
Examine this definition closely before answering the following question. What are the key points in this definition?
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Your list will vary with your own experience and perceptions, but it should include at least some of the following points about contingency planning:
o It takes place before an emergency as a forward planning process. o It is a process rather than just the production of a document. o It is a consensus-building process that leads to agreed upon
scenarios and objectives.
o It prepares planners for the emergency response by defining

actions and putting systems in place before an emergency.
o It may include actions designed to prevent an emergency as well

as limit its consequences. It may seem surprising that the contingency planning process may help to prevent an emergency. Information sharing between partners during the contingency planning process may lead some partners to change their policies, thus preventing the emergency or reducing its effects. Give an example of where a contingency plan may help to prevent an emergency or lessen its effects?
One example is a situation in which contingency planning for a feared cholera outbreak leads local authorities to change their policy and allow the connection of an existing water supply network to a refugee camp. Such actions do not arise because of the existence of the contingency plan itself, but because of the consultative process involved in the preparation of the contingency plan. By considering in advance the consequences of an event, it may be possible to take action which will reduce the vulnerability of a population. For example, if spontaneous voluntary repatriation of refugees seems likely, the ration distribution period could be increased from one to four weeks to give refugee families who decide to repatriate a larger stock of food for their return.
Why Plan?
Planning requires the time of the participants. Time becomes more valuable once an emergency occurs, so planning before the emergency when workloads may be more flexible is very important. One reason for conducting contingency planning is because it will facilitate a rapid emergency response by allowing planners, in advance of an emergency to:
o consider the likely consequences of an emergency before it occurs o identify the key resources, both human and physical, which may be available to respond to
the emergency
o identify the critical areas for immediate action o build and train the emergency response team in advance o define the general policies and approach to the emergency in advance
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All of these measures allow constructive intervention immediately after the emergency. Team building is particularly useful, as the ability to act as a team may be critical to the success of the initial emergency response. Another benefit to contingency planning is that, before an emergency, there is comparatively more time to consider all the aspects of problems that are likely to arise. Once the emergency has occurred, it may be very difficult to bring all of the players together. Agreement on policies in the contingency planning stage may help clarify applicability and resolve contradictions that may occur. Rapid decision making on operational issues after an emergency is important because delays may cost lives. The contingency plan also serves as a tool for maintaining control over events or limiting the risk of loss of control. Because of the scale of the problems that they pose, emergencies sometimes provoke erratic or unpredictable responses. Well-intentioned but ill-equipped agencies may rush to help, leading some agencies to over-react to the emergency. The risk of inappropriate responses is much lower when clear plans are in place. Finally, the contingency planning process allows identification of projected needs that may arise as a result of an emergency and the resources that will be immediately available to meet those needs. One benefit of a realistic contingency plan is that it may encourage donors and others to provide the needed resources.
Events Suitable for Contingency Planning

Before beginning the contingency planning process, it is useful to consider the events that should be focused upon. What types of events are suitable for contingency planning exercises?
Gravity of Event Trivial High Existing Policy No Planning No Planning Minor Consider Scenarios Existing Policy No Planning Serious Detailed Planning Process Consider Scenarios Existing Policy
Likelihood
Low
Almost Nil
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Contingency planning is part of everyday life. A requirement for contingency planning is that the planning effort should match the gravity of the event combined with the risk of its happening. The matrix shows that a detailed contingency planning process is only suitable for events with possibly serious consequences and a high likelihood of occurrence. Events which are potentially less serious or less likely may be considered as scenarios but should not necessarily be specifically planned for. Existing policy should be adequate to deal with these events. For example, a meteorite striking a refugee camp would have very serious consequences, but it is not very likely. However, an outbreak of diarrhoea disease in the same camp may have very serious consequences and be considered highly likely. This would be an appropriate event to include in the contingency planning process.
Planning Process
Although the objective of contingency planning is usually the production of a contingency plan, this is a very narrow view of the activity. Many useful outputs of contingency planning come from the process through which the plan is developed. Consider the following two possible approaches to developing a contingency plan. Approach A: An experienced emergency planner makes a brief visit to the country in which you are working. Having returned to headquarters, he then prepares a contingency plan based on his experience. Approach B: All the major potential actors, including you, come together around the table and agree on the broad policies. Technical working groups then fill in the details of the plan.
Which plan would you prefer to implementthe plan generated by Approach A or B? Why?
Most people would prefer to implement Approach B because they were part of its development and had a chance to influence the process and the plan.
The Process is as Important as the Plan

Many emergency response staff and others involved in developing contingency plans have reported that the planning process was more important than the plan.
Perhaps not surprisingly, when the emergency happened, it was nothing like what we had planned for. The contingency planning process we had gone through meant that all of the main players already had a clear idea of their respective roles. This, and the relationships built up during the process, meant that we already had a functioning team in place to respond to the emergency.
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Many staff members report that the critical factors were the team building and training aspects of developing the contingency plan.
It allowed those with no emergency experience to get some idea of the complexity of an emergency, and the consequences. It meant that when we had an emergency, the firsttimers were already mentally prepared for what they would meet, and spent less time adjusting than they otherwise would have.
The Plan is Also Important

The importance of the process does not mean that the plan is not important. The plan is a measure of the quality of the process. A good planning process will produce a good plan. Even though the emergency that occurs may be very different from the one planned for, the plan will still be useful. What parts of a contingency plan will still be useful even if the planned for emergency does not occur?
Although each emergency is different, most emergencies have a great deal in common. In almost all cases there will be a need for food, transport, medical care, and management. The parts of a contingency plan that list available resources will probably be useful no matter what the emergency. One staff member reported:
What was surprising was how useful the plan was, even though the emergency was completely different. The resource inventories and contact list in the plan were extremely useful.
A good contingency plan ensures that you are better prepared for any emergency that may occur, even one that is very different from the scenario in the plan. It is often recommended that the cover page of a contingency plan bear the version number and approval date in large type to remind users that it is subject to revision. There can never be a final contingency plan.
The Users of the Contingency Plan

A contingency plan will have many different users with different information needs. For example, donors may be interested in the budget while an NGO may be more interested in the specifics of its agencys role. The primary use of contingency plans is to provide staff with a framework for action in the event of an emergency. Staff from different sectors will need different parts of the plan. The plan is also likely to have the following uses: o o o o o o Briefing document for new staff Appeal to donors for contingency resources Planning tool for staff allocations Training resource for staff Reference document for names and contact number of partners Reference document for physical infrastructure
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The Emergency Continuum Model

The emergency continuum can be thought of as a cycle of crisis and response that can be seen in Emergency many emergencies around the world. In this Preparation model Emergency Preparation follows Early Warning. When the Emergency happens, it is followed by the immediate Emergency Response. Early This is followed in turn by the Long Term Response Warning or Durable Solutions, which should ideally reduce vulnerability to future emergency events. While this model has been criticised for being too simplistic, it is still useful in relating contingency planning to both early warning and the potential emergencies being planned for. In many situations different elements of this cycle may exist simultaneously, with contingency planning for new events happening even after the initial emergency event and response have begun. This is particularly true in areas of long-term or chronic emergency situations.
Emergency Emergency Response
The Emergency Continuum Model
Long-Term Response (Durable Solutions)
Where in the Emergency Continuum would you place Contingency Planning?
Contingency Planning: Part of the Planning Continuum

Essentially, contingency planning should begin once an event moves from being a remote likelihood to being a distinct possibility. The initial stages of contingency planning have little direct monetary cost aside from the time of participants. Some Contingency contingency plan actions, such as building Planning stock-piles or training staff, however, may require significant financial outlays. The Planning Continuum is parallel to the Early Warning Emergency Continuum. While similar tools and activities are used, each type of planning has a different emphasis. The transition in planning activities from those which occur immediately before the emergency event to immediately after is reflected in the change from contingency planning to emergency response (or operations) planning. The differences between the two types of planning are summarized in the following table.
Emergency
Assessment
The Planning Continuum Model
Emergency Response Planning
Durable Solutions
Implementaion
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Differences between Contingency and Emergency Response Planning

Aspect Relation to triggering event Scope of plan Partners involved Focus Relationships Planning style Allocation Planning level Time frame Contingency Plan Before Global, or scenario based All likely partners Consensus building Developing Consultative Roles Strategic and tactical Floating, uncertain Emergency Response Plan On occurrence of event Specific (but global plans also possible) As needed Effective and rapid resource utilisation Utilising Directive and consultative Responsibilities Tactical and strategic Fixed, immediate
Contingency planning can have practical benefits for emergency response or operations planning by saving valuable time in the crucial early stages of an emergency.
The Relationship Between Contingency Planning and Early Warning

With few exceptions, humanitarian emergencies are rarely sudden-onset events. They usually build up over time and their signs and symptoms are monitored through early warning systems supported by many international and national agencies. Early warnings should be linked to contingency planning. As analysis of early warning information indicates that an emergency event is more and more likely, the resources devoted to contingency planning should increase. Careful interpretation is required to verify the information and to analyse the implications in order to justify the initiation or implementation of a contingency plan. Some of the common indicators monitored by early warning systems and assistance agencies are:
Threshold level of events to justify contingency planning
Resources used for contingency planning
As Early Warning indicators increase, more resources for contingency planning should be made available
Increased Early Warning Indicators
Population movements Observations may include the total number of people who have crossed or who are moving towards the border or the average rate of crossing a border. Violence or security threats The outbreak of open fighting after a period of tension, or other violent incidents, may be a threshold for initiating contingency plans. Resource constraints Contingency plans are often made in situations where essential resources are threatened, such as food and water resources in a refugee camp. Economic indicators Many economic indicators, such as the price of staple foods, or livestock, may indicate impending food shortages. Disease incidences The development of a contingency plan may be warranted by the presence of a disease with epidemic potential. Natural disasters Contingency planning may cover droughts, floods or other hazards that may affect refugees or cause population movements. 11
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The Use of Indicators in Contingency Planning

Indicators of potential crisis take many forms. A wave of civil unrest erupted in one country shortly after a major currency devaluation set off widespread unemployment and a swift erosion of the buying power of low- and middle-income households. In the economic recession that followedthoroughly documented by conventional economic indicatorsunemployed workers throughout the country focused their mounting frustration on wholesale commodity traders who were accused of pricegouging and hoarding. Most of the commodity traders were from a minority religious and ethnic group with close ties to high circles in government. As community leaders appealed for calm and restraint, the police and military struggled to bring the street riots and shop looting under control. As the situation became more complex, contingency planning was launched in neighbouring countries in preparation for a potential large-scale flight of the minority group.
Ideally, thresholds or levels of alert should be established both for initiating a contingency plan and for putting the plan into action. Clear and unambiguous signals, however, are often difficult to find and agree upon as thresholds. A precise threshold event which initiates the plan does not always occur and decisions for action may be influenced by political or other factors. The level of alert varies and the type and extent of contingency planning should vary accordingly. General Preparedness The state in which standby arrangements are in place, staff are trained and there is access to emergency funding. These arrangements are not necessarily country specific. The state in which a particular country or region can be considered to be emergency prone or vulnerable to the effects of emergencies. Accordingly, contingency planning is undertaken which establishes procedures for effective action in later stages. The state in which the standby arrangements as put in place in the previous phases are activated and placed on active alert through funded and staffed monitoring and/or readiness activities.
Enhanced Preparedness
Immediate Preparedness for Response
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Summary
Contingency planning takes place before an emergency happens. Contingency planning seeks to build agreement and consensus. The process of contingency planning may sometimes help prevent an emergency or lessen its effects. The contingency planning process is just as important as the plan. The contingency plan may be useful even for emergencies that are different from the events which are planned for. Contingency planning enhances preparedness, and improves emergency response. Any uncertain event is suitable for contingency planning, provided that the gravity of the event combined with the risk of it happening justify the effort of contingency planning. Early warning signs of emergencies require careful interpretation to initiate contingency planning.
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Chapter 1
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Chapter 1 Self-Assessment Questions Check T or F to indicate whether a statement is True or False T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s
1. Major benefits of contingency planning come from the process through which the plan is developed. 2. The contingency plan is more important than the contingency planning process. 3. A contingency plan for an emergency scenario that does not occur is of no value. 4. Planning is free of any cost. 5. The contingency planning effort should be in balance with the likelihood and seriousness of potential emergency events
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. Which of the following is not true of contingency planning A s B s C s D s It is a consensus building process It may include actions designed to prevent an emergency Its whole purpose is the production of a contingency plan It takes place before the emergency
7. Most people prefer to implement plans which A s B s C s D s They have had a chance to influence Have been developed by experts Have been sent from headquarters All of the above
8. Which of the following is an advantage of contingency planning A s B s C s D s Rapid emergency response Pre-selection of all emergency responders before the emergency occurs Rapid decision making Maintaining control in an emergency
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9. Contingency planning should be considered when an event A s B s C s D s Is likely to occur and will have serious consequences Is likely to occur and may have minor consequences Is very unlikely to occur but will have serious consequences if it does Is very likely to occur but will have trivial consequences
10. Reasons for contingency planning include: A s B s C s D s Establishing your position as the expert before an emergency occurs Not having to make rapid decisions when an emergency occurs Identifying critical areas for immediate action in the event of an emergency Identifying key resources in advance
Exercise A
1)
Are there circumstances where contingency planning would continue after an emergency?
2)
If so, in what sort of situation is this most likely to occur?
3)
What problems might occur in post-emergency contingency planning?
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Exercise B You are managing a refugee camp close to the border with the country of origin. The refugees are predominantly rural refugees who have been in the camp for two years. They have some livestock and have recently had a good harvest from the crops they are growing outside the camp. Conditions have recently improved in the country of origin and there are rumours that refugees are planning to repatriate spontaneously. You are leading the team preparing the contingency plan: What indicators could be used as quantitative thresholds for the implementation of a contingency plan for refugees spontaneously returning from an open (i.e. with no physical restriction on departure) refugee camp?
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1. 2. Chapter 1 Answers 3. 4. 5.
T F F F T
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
C A A, C, D A, D C, D
Exercise Answers A 1) Yes, contingency planning can certainly continue after an emergency has occurred, but not for the emergency event that has actually happened. In many cases an initial emergency event, such as a small refugee influx, may give early warning for a much bigger influx. 2) This is a particular problem in complex emergencies where emergency events follow each other in a chain of inter-linked and or chronic crises. 3) One very common problem in this situation is that it is difficult to get additional resources for what might happen when existing resources are inadequate to deal with the existing situation. One approach is to include contingency planning for further possible emergencies on the agenda of the co-ordination meetings for responding to the present emergency. B The interpretation of the indicators will depend on a variety of circumstances. In this situation contingency planning has already been started because of the rumours of spontaneous return. The following are some of the threshold indicators, which could be used. Both obvious, quantitative indicators and some of the indirect and more qualitative ones are given.
Indicator
Number of refugees crossing at official crossing points (total, point, or average rate) Number of huts removed Mood in the camp Price of food in camp market Sale of large domestic items Price of black market ration cards in camp Refugees leaving employment Registrations for formal repatriation
Comments
Many may cross at unofficial points, it may take time before official figures are available. Good indicator, but little advance warning. Needs skilled interpretation, and may change very quickly as situation changes Other factor may influence food prices. Difficult to measure Difficult to discover prices. Selling cards is final act before departure. Difficult to get good figures as many employed in black economy. Registrations may not be a reliable guide to refugee intentions.
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Partners in the Planning Process
s Who should be involved in the contingency planning process s Why multi-agency efforts are extremely valuable s About roles of partner agencies and how to deal with some
common problems
Who Should Plan?

Everyone who will be responsible for any component of project implementation after an emergency should plan for contingencies. Contingency planning might permit a rapid response to any emergency, even if it differs from what was originally anticipated.
Levels of Contingency Planning

Contingency plans may be made at a number of different levels. This course focuses on contingency planning at national or regional levels, which should be based on operational details developed locally. Field officers have established relationships with the refugees and local officials and are better able to determine whether or not operational plans are workable. In addition, field offices can usually identify local resources more easily than centrally located offices. Field-based planning, however, is not always appropriate for policy planning. Centralised offices, such as branch offices or international headquarters, may have a better overview of the national and global situations and can judge the likely impact of decisions on other national or international programmes. These offices, therefore, are usually in a better position to make policy decisions. To be effective, however, contingency planning systems must allow for support, advice and feedback between branch and field offices as indicated in the following diagram. Systems in which all policy decisions are made at the central level and all operational decisions at the field level do not work.
Branch Office National Plan
Policy input and feedback
POLICY DECISIONS
Sub Office Regional Plan
OPERATIONAL PLANS
Support, advice and feedback
Field Office District Plan
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Sectoral Plans
While a contingency plan may be thought of as a single document outlining the activities needed in all sectors, this is only true of the highest level or master plan. The contingency planning process will often reveal, and should build upon, sectoral or sub-sectoral plans that have been drawn up by agencies already working in those sectors. In the health sector, for example, a general contingency plan may be drawn up by the Ministry of Health and separate contingency plans drawn up by UNICEF and NGOs. Although these sub-sectoral plans may overlap, it is possible that, when combined, they may not even provide complete coverage of health sector needs. Sectoral plans may have various levels of detail, some containing complex written or formal contingency plans and others which are broad and general or rely heavily on standard internal procedures. The contingency planning process should bring all of the sub-sectoral plans together into a common, harmonised plan for each sector. Some agencies keep their contingency plans confidential and unpublished for political or security reasons. Their existence may not be acknowledged and they are not formally available to the contingency planning team. The information contained in these confidential plans may impact the scenarios and actions planned for by others. Publishing or sharing plans may help to avoid problems that can occur when conflicting contingency plans are put into action.
Give examples of contingency plans that may be confidential.
How might the contingency planning team access such documents?
Contingency plans prepared by the military, police, or state agencies might be confidential. Donors, NGOs, and other partners may also have internal contingency plans (for example, staff evacuation plans) that are confidential because of funding or political considerations. One way of accessing these plans is by including partners who are aware of their contents in the contingency planning process.
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Chapter 2
EP 01
The Benefits of Partnerships in Planning

Partner agencies enrich the planning process as they bring needed information and expertise. While involving other agencies may make the process slower, there are many advantages that outweigh this disadvantage. These include a better quality of planning, enhanced acceptance and commitment to the plan, and building relationships among partner agencies and staff.
Better Planning
A contingency plan should cover all sectors. No person or organisation can be an expert in every sector of the increasingly complex emergencies taking place today. Bringing more viewpoints, more specialist knowledge, and more years of experience into the planning process means that more factors are considered. Broad processes with more participants reduce the chance of the plan being a failure and the types of oversights or false assumptions that might result in needless deaths are minimised.
Acceptance and Commitment

When agencies are fully involved in the planning process, their views are taken into account. Through their agreement with the final plan, agencies should feel more committed to the outcome. It is less likely that agencies would choose to go it alone or reject a commonly developed plan when they have played a role in its development.
Building Relationships
An emergency places enormous pressure on all the players involved. Relationships developed before an emergency may help to enhance communication and ease stresses during the emergency. In addition, an understanding of each agencys strengths and weaknesses may assist in the implementation of plans. Finally, the personal relationships developed during the planning process may also make it easier to discuss sensitive topics.
Contingency Planning as Consensus Building

As contingency planning ties together all the information from different sectors and partners to give a final result that reflects all of their inputs, it builds a consensus on steps to be taken to address the emergency. Creating this consensus before the emergency means that less time is lost in debate when the emergency happens. It also ensures that the same policies (e.g. for supplementary feeding, vaccination, treatment, water supply, food distribution etc.) are followed by all partner agencies.
What are some limitations of the consensus building process?
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EP 01
Consensus building is a levelling and averaging process that may produce a product of the least risk to the group. For example, projected scenarios that are unpopular with the group may be swept aside, even though they may be the most likely. This might be called group-think, where loyalty to the group view tends to obscure reality. To avoid this, open-minded and critical analysis should be encouraged for all suggested scenarios and reflection promoted on creative planning alternatives.
Which Partners Are Involved?

Government
Governments play the key role in emergencies. Although UNHCR may assist national governments with the co-ordination of a refugee crisis, governments retain sovereignty and have the final word. The host government ultimately decides where refugees will be settled, and many other issues concerning their protection and assistance. If the government is not involved from the start of the process, the contingency plan will be based on many assumptions about government actions. It is especially important that the relevant government ministry or ministries play a role in the formulation of policy in the planning process. In addition, the government should be involved in technical planning for operations as local officials have detailed knowledge about the availability of local resources and the problems inherent in their use. Government staff may also have access to indicators of a possible pending emergency that may not be available to other agencies. It is sometimes argued that government participation in the contingency planning process may lead to premature action, such as closing the border to refugees. In fact, government involvement in contingency planning is more likely to lead to more appropriate emergency responses. The feeling of control over the situation based on an appropriate plan may make quick, reactionary decisions less likely and will help to prevent unrealistic estimates and rumours. The inter-agency linkages strengthened during the contingency planning process may help to channel more accurate information to decision-makers. Government Participation in Contingency Planning
Government participation in contingency planning is not always possible. In one case, a small nation was in its fifth year of civil war when renewed hostilities with rebel forces seemed certain to spark another large-scale refugee exodus to a neighbouring country. At the time, tensions between the two bordering states were at an all-time high and various regional and international diplomatic initiatives had already been undertaken to prevent a military confrontation. As the UN and NGOs began to update contingency plans for another wave of refugee arrivals, the UN representative approached the government of the country likely to receive refugees to participate in the process. The government declined, expressing concern that their involvement might further aggravate the already highly-charged political situation. Some officials even wished to block the process already begun by the humanitarian agencies. Understanding the governments concerns, the UN representative nevertheless convinced top officials of the need for emergency preparedness and agreed to portray the process as entirely a UN/NGO initiative. In the end, the government did not openly participate in contingency planning meetings, but did provide inputs and follow closely the processalbeit informally.
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Chapter 2
EP 01
UN and Intergovernmental Agencies

UN and intergovernmental agencies should be involved in contingency planning in proportion to their potential involvement in responding to an emergency. Agencies that are likely to play a key role should play a full part in contingency planning. For example, the World Food Programme is likely to have its own sectoral contingency plan for food aid logistics; this should be incorporated into the overall plan. Some agencies may play a limited role in contingency planning. They may participate in interviews with the planning team or by written comments, made initially and on the draft plan.
NGOs
National or international NGOs likely to play key roles in the emergency should have key roles in contingency planning. Agencies with experienced staff and those with funding can provide significant resources to the planning process.
Refugees and the Local Population

Refugees will only be able to participate in certain types of contingency planning. In the case of a refugee influx, inviting the participation of potential refugees in advance is not usually possible. Existing refugee populations should be involved to the degree possible in operational decisions affecting them as well as providing input for policy decisions. It is also essential to involve the local population in planning decisions that directly affect them, for example, in sharing water sources with refugees. Consultation beforehand is generally much easier to deal with than disputes afterwards. Such consultation should ideally be with the entire community or through community leaders. NGOs or agency staff who are familiar with the local or refugee population may act as advocates and can be valuable sources of information on cultural and social preferences.
Donor Representatives
Involvement of donor representatives in contingency planning is appropriate when there is a need to establish contingency stocks or to fund other contingency preparations. Even when there is not likely to be a need for such funding, involving donor representatives during the contingency planning stage can speed the release of funds once the emergency happens. Though donor representatives do not need to be part of the entire contingency planning process unless they have a particular skill or expertise to offer, it is often useful to brief them on the process as an indicator of overall emergency preparedness.
Use of Outside Experts

Contingency plans are sometimes developed, written or facilitated by external experts. This approach may be required if offices are understaffed or in extreme cases of urgency. If such a method of planning is needed, efforts should be made by the external team to involve all partner agencies as much as possible in the process.
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EP 01
Assembling Planning Partners

In one very large, on-going humanitarian operation that involved well over 80 NGOs and all of the major UN agencies, a contingency plan was urgently needed for over 500,000 refugees settled in the shadow of an active volcano that was predicted to erupt within days. Involvement of all agencies in contingency planning would have been ideal, but would have greatly slowed the process when time was of the essence. Drawing upon existing co-ordinating mechanisms within the operation, a small but representative team from government, NGO, and the UN community quickly elaborated several scenarios. Some of the worlds most renowned vulcanologists provided scientific analyses of the situation. Planners focused on key sectors and the most-likely scenario. Feedback on the situation and the state of planning was regularly communicated to all concerned agencies. In the end, there was no eruption, but the planning exercise reinforced relations between the humanitarian community and provided a number of lessons learned.
Planning Resources
A realistic approach must be taken with regard to funding based on contingency plans. The contingency planning process may give rise to expectations that additional resources will immediately be available in line with the plan. The existence of a plan does not guarantee the availability of resources to fund it, although a good plan will certainly increase the likelihood of funding when an emergency happens. The resources used for planning, and for any other preparation for an emergency (for example, stockpiling non-food items) should be proportional to the likelihood of the emergency and its probable seriousness. While some preliminary expenditure may be sensible, it would be unwise to commit resources for a contingency, which is still far from certain.
24
Ch
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Summary
Everyone likely to be responsible for operations after an emergency should be involved in planning for contingencies to some degree. Contingency plans should draw on existing sectoral contingency plans and should harmonise these plans within and between sectors. Policy decisions may generally flow from the central level, but operational plans should flow from the field level. A multi-agency planning process produces better quality plans, builds relationships, and generates consensus. Partner agencies generally include government agencies, UN and intergovernmental agencies, NGOs, the refugees and the host community, and donor representatives.
25
EP 01
1. A contingency plan is only useful for the emergency for which it was planned. 2. Bottom up planning is best for policy planning. 3. Building a consensus is best done after the emergency happens and all of the facts are clear. 4. Consensus has a negative side, in that it may promote groupthink or agreement on a product with less risk to the group. 5. The use of outside experts or consultants for contingency planning is generally considered a best method for getting this type of planning accomplished.
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. In an ideal planning system A s B s C s D s Operations planning is a bottom-up process Policy planning is a top-down process Both top-down and bottom-up processes are supported by bottom-up and top-down inputs respectively All of the above
7. Involving partners in planning does not give A s B s C s D s Better planning Faster planning Stronger relationships with partners Greater acceptance of, and commitment to, the resulting plan
8. Involving the Government in contingency planning is likely to lead to A s B s C s D s Wild rumours about the refugee crisis More appropriate responses with less risk of premature action Border closures in advance of an influx All of the above
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Chapter 2
EP 01
9. Other agencies should be involved in detailed planning in proportion to A s B s C s D s Their likely involvement in responding to an emergency Their size and status Their experience in the country All of the above
10. It is essential to involve the local population in A s B s C s D s All planning for refugee emergencies All planning for water resource use Planning decisions that directly affect them All decision making
In a situation where the relevant government ministry is unwilling to become involved in the contingency planning process, you decide to appoint one staff member with good knowledge of the Governments viewpoint to play the role of Government representative in the planning process. What are the advantages of such an approach?
What are the disadvantages?
27
EP 01
F F F T F
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
D B B A C
Exercise Answer The chief advantage is that, if the staff member is well chosen, one will be continually reminded of any constraints generated by government policy in various areas. Being reminded that, for example, the government is unlikely to waive import duties on relief goods that can be produced locally can prevent problems later. One disadvantage is that, while the government viewpoint may be superficially represented, the staff member is unlikely to be aware of changes in internal government policy towards the threatened emergency. The main disadvantage is that, because the government does not participate in the planning process, there is no government ownership of the plan or commitment to its implementation. Every effort should therefore be made to involve the government itself in the contingency planning process.
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te Ch
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Initiating and Maintaining the Process
3
ap
s How to initiate the process s Why continual review of a

contingency plan is needed
s Ways to improve the sustain

ability of the contingency planning process
s How participation in contingency

planning can be encouraged
s Possible structures for the

contingency planning process
s On-going review of the plan
Contingency planning is not a one-time exercise. Because contingency planning is an on-going process, it should be designed so that it can continue to function with minimal inputs over a long period of time. For example, the initial threat may pass, but another threat may appear a year later.
Initiating the Process

Before beginning a new contingency planning process, a review of existing plans and processes is necessary. You will need to assess the situation and adapt your planning process accordingly. Contingency planning is usually initiated by the agency that intends to facilitate the on-going planning process. It will be helpful to brief participants before the first meeting to promote a larger and more considered response. The issues that may be dealt with at the first meeting include: o Implementation of the contingency planning process itself o The scenarios which are to be planned for, specifying numbers or other details as closely as possible o The overall objectives and standards to be met o The timetable for the contingency planning process, including the next meeting o Any general policies for the contingency planning process
How long should it take to produce the first draft of the contingency plan?
29
EP 01
It may be possible to produce an initial draft in less than a week if many of the component plans are already available. Two weeks to one month, however, is probably a more realistic estimate. Planning participants must be able to see the results of their investment in the contingency planning process. If the process does not produce desirable results within a reasonable time frame, frustration may set in. Furthermore, the planning process itself should be part of a longer-term or sustainable process to develop agency capacities and interagency relationships. Careful attention to structuring the process in the beginning will lead to a more sustainable planning process.
What approaches might help to make a planning process sustainable?
While sustainability depends on the outlook of the participants, the level of threat, and other factors, processes that are routine are more likely to be sustainable. Several approaches may help participants perceive that their investment in the process is worthwhile. One approach is limiting the investment needed by incorporating contingency planning into existing processes. Another is to have a flexible process that allows partners to participate only in areas of interest. Some possibilities for insuring the sustainability of the planning process: o Contingency planning is more likely to be successful if it is supported and/or initiated at the highest level. In UNHCR, the sponsor for the contingency planning process is a senior member of staff, usually the UNHCR Representative or the Senior Programme Officer. o Developing the initial contingency plan is a great deal of work. Meetings should allow enough time for all the issues to be considered. o A relatively flexible timetable for meetings is recommended so that the contingency planning process is not long and drawn out. o Review of the plan can be undertaken through more routine or normal channels, or groups outside the core planning group. This two-stage approach may allow the immediate development of a contingency plan and greater participation in its refinement.
Maintaining the Plan

After the contingency plan is prepared, a continuous review process is needed to maintain and update it as necessary. Some aspects such as scenarios, underlying policy, and information sources may change significantly. Two approaches may be used for on-going review of the contingency plan. The first is requesting comments on the existing draft. The second approach is review meetings with partners, which also allows the contingency planning process to be maintained through on-going dialogue.
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Chapter 3
EP 01
Requests for Written Comments

Holding review meetings is preferable to requesting written comments as written comments are less likely to contribute to consensus building. Can requesting written comments on the draft be useful?
Even though review meetings are better from a process viewpoint, the written review process is useful as it: o emphasises that the plan is always subject to revision. o broadens participation by allowing those who cannot participate directly (for geographical or other reasons) to make an input. Written comments are often the easiest way for agency headquarters to comment on a draft. o encourages the continuing debate that is part of an effective contingency planning process. Comments can be requested 1) on the first page of the contingency plan 2) in the letter accompanying the plan 3) on a regular basis through letters to partners 4) in the agenda for meetings
Review Meetings
Review meetings are the most effective mechanism for maintaining contingency plans. Review meetings promote the spirit of co-operation and open exchange. Review meetings should start immediately after the first draft of the plan is circulated. Although at this stage there may be very little to update, there will be points that need correction in the next draft. The review process should be similar to the one used to draft the plan. As with the entire planning process, the schedule for review meetings varies with the urgency of the situation. In critical situations where events may radically alter the scenario, the contingency plan should be reviewed more frequently. A review meeting timetable should be established on a monthly, quarterly or annual basis.
Encouraging Continuing Participation

Contingency plans may initially be prepared in the context of a specific, threatened emergency. Under such a threat it may be relatively easy to mobilise partners to participate in the planning process. It may be more difficult to interest partners in future processes once the initial threat has passed.
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EP 01
How can continuing participation in the contingency planning process be facilitated?
There are several ways to facilitate continuing participation. o Promote flexible participation. Partners may only need to deal with the aspects in which they are interested. This can be achieved by considering sectors separately. o Promote listening and consideration of all comments. o Integrate the contingency planning process with regular co-ordination meetings. This could be achieved by having a regular meeting with contingency planning as its only topic. This avoids the not another meeting! complaint, or the need for participants to travel to several meetings. It can also be integrated by programming a special meeting to tie in with a regular programme meeting. o Provide resources (i.e. training, updates on manuals etc.) to participants. Dedicated professionals often place great value on training and professional development opportunities. o With their approval, credit all agencies for their contributions, for example, at the front of the contingency plan draft. Local offices may send copies of the plan to their headquarters, thereby increasing support for the contingency planning process.
Maintaining the Planning Team

Some of the ways in which participation is encouraged are similar to the techniques for team building such as effective information sharing and feedback. Much of the contingency planning process is designed to build and maintain a team that can respond quickly in an emergency. One of the problems in maintaining the planning team is the rate of turnover of key players. New members are constantly being introduced into the team and learning its particular and evolving dynamic process as old members move to new assignments. The process manager or focal point (the member of staff assigned to manage the contingency planning process) must ensure that details of such changes are kept up to date. It may also be useful to inform new arrivals in critical posts of the existence of the contingency plan and the date of the next planned review.
Using Emergency Management Training as a Forum for Contingency Planning

In one emergency-prone region, the political sensitivities of governments ran high concerning contingency planning. A number of authorities acknowledged the need for greater emergency preparedness, but feared that contingency planning for a particular event might actually send the wrong signal to the neighbouring country and might be used by the media to embarrass the government. In an attempt to respond to this sensitivity, the UN country team designed a workshop that dealt broadly with issues of emergency management, including contingency planning as an integral part of the workshop materials. During the emergency management exercise, participants were asked to elaborate scenarios for a fictional situation. Somewhat surprisingly, government representatives built a scenario that exactly mirrored the actual situation.
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Chapter 3
EP 01
Planning Team Processes

Contingency planning may take place in many forms and forums, utilising anything from simple to complex planning teams and methods. Promoting creative combinations of people, agencies and ideas may help to address unique situations and needs, while, on the other hand, imposing limitations or tight structures on the planning process may be counterproductive. All planning teams and processes, however, have to proceed in light of existing organisational structures, local norms and sensitive issues. Some possible ways to implement the planning process are discussed below.
Use of Existing Processes

Use of existing administrative structures and processes can result in excellent and sustainable plans. This approach should be handled with care, however, so that contingency planning does not become just another agenda item, or its importance reduced in light of other issues. Use of existing mechanisms, while ultimately more sustainable, can often be slower than creating special working groups. Starting Simply
Even for complex emergency operations, contingency planning is best initiated with a simple start. In a recent on-going emergency where a spontaneous repatriation seemed imminent, a small team of staff with rich experience of the situation and the area launched a contingency planning process by drafting a concise (but comprehensive) action plan for return. The brief plan was useful in that it was widely distributed among the humanitarian community and provided the overall framework needed to guide the process as it was expanded to include other agencies. Though this first plan evolved considerably, it served as a first building block for the process.
Creation of Special Working Groups

Creation of a special or temporary group and process highlights the purposes for planning especially if a new plan is being created, or in a situation of urgency. Some possible supporting arrangements are roundtables, working groups, sectoral teams, core teams and secretariats, all of which are described below. Use of the roundtable process The concept of the roundtable promotes exchange among the members of a planning team. The roundtable may have broad representation and the number of participants may be too large to discuss the details of the operation. The roundtable is ideally suited to deal with some of the bigger policy issues and may also review the first draft and oversee the whole process. An Inter-Agency Roundtable
In one complex emergency operation that involved over six separate nations and over 30 different agency offices, an inter-agency roundtable was established at HQs to synthesise and harmonise the various results that emerged from the field during the on-going planning process. Importantly, the roundtable members were able to identify weaknesses and inconsistencies in the overall planning that were not readily apparent at the field level and clarify policy on a number of outstanding points.
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EP 01
Working Groups The working group may consist of roundtable participants who are directly involved in the detailed sectoral planning and possibly the core team as well. One function of the working group may be to ensure consistency between different sectoral plans, and to familiarise all sectors with the planning assumptions. Sectoral Teams Sectoral teams develop relevant plans for each sector. Responsibility for organising and managing the team may go to the agency that would have to execute specific sectoral operational tasks in an emergency. Emergency operations often falter because of small, seemingly insignificant details that may have been overlooked in planning. These details can be something as small as a syringe for vaccinations to larger equipment needed to offload humanitarian cargo from aircraft. For a core team managing the planning process in complex operations, it is virtually impossible to cover every detail. Therefore, it is advisable for managers/planners to establish multi-sectoral teams that can ensure co-ordination with the proper specialists who are best suited to verify the detailed planning. Core Team Core team members may mobilise the process and write the draft. The core team may have only 2 to 5 members, for example, with each member liaising with a number of sectors to ensure that the preparation of sector plans is on track. When a plan needs to be drafted or revised urgently, core team members should be released from other responsibilities so they can concentrate on the contingency planning process. A process manager may be appointed from the core team to take overall responsibility for managing the contingency planning process. The diagram shows a highly developed organisation for a multi-sectoral, interagency contingency planning team. While many arrangements are possible, this model shows all of the components likely to be needed for co-ordinating a fairly complex plan. The contingency planning structure is shown as concentric circles, with the core contingency planning team at the centre. The addition of the sectoral teams makes up the working group. This working group is part of the still larger Roundtable at which all partners in the process are represented.
l e Con s u l t a Tab t iv e o r k i ng Gr o ou eW h T
d un
u ro
Th
Core Team
Secretariat The contingency planning process will collect and generate a great deal of documentation that will also be important if the plan is revised, or if an emergency occurs which is different from the planned scenario. It may be necessary to appoint permanent administrative support person(s) as a secretariat for the contingency planning process. One of the tasks would be to index and archive all of the reference material used in preparing the contingency plan.
34
Se c Te tora am l s
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Summary
Contingency plans, once written, may become less relevant each day. They need to be reviewed regularly; both to make them useful and to maintain the planning team. The same techniques that are used to build teams can be used to encourage participation in the review process and build and maintain the contingency planning team. Review of the contingency plan should take place both through requests for written comments and through regular review meetings. The planning processes that should be used for contingency planning depend on the situation. Specialised structures or planning groups may promote more rapid development (and higher profile) of plans but may be less sustainable. Contingency planning arrangements may take many forms. Highly developed contingency planning structures may include consultative roundtables, working groups, sectoral teams, core teams, and secretariats.
35
EP 01
36
Chapter 3
EP 01
1. Careful attention paid to structuring contingency planning will lead to better results. 2. The proportion of planning done by special rather than existing structures increases as the urgency increases. 3. Crediting partners for their contribution to contingency planning is one way of encouraging continued participation. 4. Contingency plans, once written, must be regularly reviewed in order to remain relevant. 5. One of the tasks of the contingency planning focal point or process manager is to make sure that changes and modifications are reflected in the plan.
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. The contingency planning process is more likely to be sustainable if A s B s C s D s It has a rigid structure Participants perceive that their investment in the process is worthwhile Partners are paid to participate All of the above
7. The functions of the contingency planning secretariat include A s B s C s D s Managing the core team Indexing and archiving reference material Ensuring that the sectoral teams meet their targets All of the above
8. All of the following contribute to a sustainable contingency planning process except: A s B s C s D s Routine processes Frequent meetings A flexible process that encourages involvement based on areas of interest Support from the highest levels in an organisation
37
EP 01
9. Written review comments: A s B s C s D s Are a waste of time as they do not add to the process Emphasise the status of the plan as being subject to revision Should only be accepted before the plan is finalised All of the above
10. Problems that make maintaining the plan difficult include: A s B s C s D s The rate of staff turnover among key players Other time pressures in an emergency The fact that plans get out of date All of the above
Exercise A You are working in a country where there are regular inter-agency meetings attended by all partners. The inter-agency committee prepared a contingency plan some years ago and it is revised once a year. The country is now threatened by a refugee influx from a neighbouring county that was always regarded as very stable and unlikely to be a source of refugee flows. The existing contingency is focused on operations at the other end of the country where conditions are completely different. You need to urgently revise the contingency plan or develop a new one for the new scenario. The next meeting of the inter-agency committee is in two weeks, but the influx may start before then. What structure would you use for planning?
What will your first step be?
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Chapter 3
EP 01
Exercise B Contingency plans are sometimes directly written, rather than facilitated, by outside experts. Clearly, this does not build the planning team or generate the process that is advocated in this course. Suggest one major problem that may develop with such plans even where the experts have detailed knowledge of the country and affected populations, made detailed interviews, and produced technically sound plans. Comment on the likely problems of the plan itself rather than problems with the process used to develop it.
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EP 01
T T T T T
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
B B B B D
Exercise Answers A You have a difficult choice here. While an emergency structure would allow a contingency plan to be developed very quickly, the existing inter-agency process not only has experience with contingency planning, but also has successfully maintained the plan which was originally developed. One useful approach might be to use the inter-agency meeting to set up the working group. Again, this depends on the exact circumstances and your personal preferences. You could call for an immediate emergency meeting of the inter-agency committee in order to set up the working group. You should also remember that while contingency planning is ideally done through such structures, sectoral planning can also take place independently within each agency, although this may involve some reworking later when plans are tied into each other. When advising partners of the emergency meeting, it would be useful to ask them to begin their internal planning process and inventories of the resources that they could use for the emergency. B One major problem with such plans is that, although they may be excellent on the day they are presented, they then become more and more out of date, and therefore less relevant, with no mechanism to review them and keep them current.
40
U ni 2 t
Refugees from Afghanistan in Shauindad Refugee village, Kohat district, being registered for food distribution. Pakistan, UNHCR photo, A. Hollmann, 1990
Contingency Planning Tools
UNHCR
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EP 01
42
U ni 2 t
PRETEST Contingency Planning Tools
T F s s T F s s T F s s
1. The choice of possible scenarios for a contingency plan is limitless. 2. The scenario developed for a contingency plan should be as specific as possible. 3. Contingency planning should consider every UNHCR budget sector, regardless of whether the sector is likely to be critical in the planned for emergency. 4. When an emergency happens, there will be an immediate need for both resources and information on resource availability. 5. The timelines used for needs projection, resource assessment and service gap identification should be the same as the scenario timeline. 6. Sensitivity about scenarios can be addressed by removing sensitive elements, granting the government observer status to the process, scenario-less planning, and training. 7. The nominal group method can be used with groups of more than 30. 8. Each emergency is unique. This prevents planning for one being used for another. 9. Scenario assumptions must be tested. 10. Physical resource inventories are typically prepared by the roundtable. 11. All data must be verified. 12. Data processing for contingency planning requires sophisticated computer software. 13. Contingency planners do not need to verify published information. 14. In an emergency, human resources are often more difficult to secure than physical resources. 15. Lack of funding is the only constraint that organisations face with regard to increasing human resource capacity in emergencies.
T F s s T F s s
T F s s
T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s
43
T F s s T F s s
16. Lack of standardisation of human resources makes cataloguing difficult. 17. When agencies execute their present tasks well, you can be sure that they can handle more responsibility without problems. 18. Gap identification helps focus management attention on critical areas. 19. Gap identification sheets are one element of contingency planning that do not need to be considered on a timeline. 20. Filling physical resource gaps without filling the human gap at the same time may sometimes be the only responsible course of action.
T F s s T F s s T F s s
ni
44
Pre-test Answers
6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
T T T F F T
13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8.
F F T F
20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15.
T F T F T F
Pre-test Answers
7.
14.
te ap Ch
r
Contingency Planning Scenarios and Projecting Needs
s How to expedite the process of

generating contingency planning scenarios
s How to assess potential needs

in an emergency
s About typical needs for

emergency-displaced populations
s Three different ways to generate

scenarios for contingency planning
s How to test the assumptions

made in the plan
Contingency Planning Scenarios

Scenarios are visions of a future situation and are used as the basis for contingency planning. Scenarios should be as realistic as possible to promote realistic plans. If they are not, they may lead to inappropriate plans.
Which Scenario?
The choices of possible scenarios are limitless. For example, a scenario may range from: 50,000 refugees will cross the border to 5,000 refugees cross the border at kilometre 56, 6,000 at kilometre 60, 7,000 at kilometre 64, and so on. Scenarios should provide only the degree of specificity useful for planning. Using specific numbers based on projected estimates, however, is usually more desirable than using a broad range.
How can planners limit the scenarios to a reasonable number?
45
EP 01
Scenarios may be limited to a workable number: o By limiting the detail in the scenarios. It may be most useful to develop one scenario for 50,000 to 100,000 refugees, rather than separate scenarios for 50,000, 55,000, or 60,000, for example. Similarly, a scenario which covers a general geographical area may be more useful than trying to specify exact locations. o By combining a number of slightly different scenarios into one broader one. o By dealing with probable scenarios rather than all possible scenarios. The last point is important. Planners are sometimes tempted to develop a plan for the worst-case scenario, believing that all possibilities will be covered. For example, a plan might attempt to cover simultaneous influxes from all bordering countries. Unless such an influx was regarded as reasonably likely, however, donors or participants would not take the contingency plan seriously. Scenarios, therefore, should be developed for the contingency considered most likely.
How Detailed Should the Scenario Be?

Contingency planning scenarios should be as detailed as possible relative to the likelihood of the event. The more detailed the scenario, the more detailed the contingency plan must be. Detailed scenarios force the examination of many assumptions and reveal linkages that might otherwise have been overlooked. On the other hand, greater detail makes plans more situation-specific and less adaptable. Detailed scenarios are appropriate as the likelihood of a specific emergency event increases.
The Scenario Timeline

Every scenario should contain a timeline. The timeline should show the expected refugee flow including the cumulative level of arrivals. Time intervals may be shorter when planning for the first weeks of a massive influx of refugees and longer for the period following the initial influx emergency. The selection of scenario timeline scales should be carefully considered as the timeline will be used as the basis for needs projections, resource assessment, and service gap identification. Timelines are normally developed in terms of days from the start of the emergency. A scale of 1, 2, 4, 7, 10 and 14 days is the most useful. In many scenarios this may continue to 21, 28, 60 and 90 days. The timeline should match the detail required in the planning. In some plans, a timeline of week 1, week 2, month 1 and month 3 may be adequate. In others only the first few days will be important. Assumptions about the possible timeline are critical in the contingency planning process. The following example, based on a fictional country (Ruritania), is presented in the form of a table. The first column is the timeline, measured in days, with each day presented as a chronological count from the first day of the emergency. The second column presents the estimated scenario of how many families will cross the border on a cumulative basis. The third column presents comments about what is expected to happen, and why. These comments support the number estimate provided in the second column.
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Scenario for refugee influx from Ruritania
Day 1 2 4 7 10 14 21 28 60 90
Families 200 800 2,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200
Comments Contingency plan implementation Approximately 600 families per day expected for days 2-5
Influx will slow down during second week
Number will stabilise after three weeks
No change is expected in numbers for first three months
Sensitive Scenarios
In some countries and cultures, planning for a neighbours misfortune is not culturally acceptable. Contingency plans to deal with refugee influxes resulting from problems in a neighbouring country may have political repercussions. It may even be feared that such planning may trigger population movement. The national government is the most likely partner to be affected by these sensitivities.
Can you suggest any way of encouraging government participation in sensitive cases?
Dealing with government sensitivity to scenarios may be attempted in several ways, including: o Removing politically sensitive elements of scenarios. For example, the scenario does not have to state the specific reasons for flight such as human rights abuses by the military. o Approaching the government through donors, embassies, etc. o Agreeing that while the government observes the process, no formal reference will be made to its participation in the draft contingency plan. o Scenario-less or multi-hazard contingency planning, where planning takes place as a generic exercise. The exercise might be expanded to include emergencies such as floods, drought, or other natural disasters. o Conducting an emergency management training course to help build the participants into a team, and to generate a local consensus on how emergencies are to be handled. 47
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Multi-Hazard Contingency Planning

In one country, the government threatened a refoulement of tens of thousands of refugees while the region stood on the brink of a natural disaster. The team that undertook contingency planning adopted a broad, multi-hazard approach that combined elements of both scenarios. While there were obviously some fundamental differences, the scenarios nevertheless shared much in common: equivalent numbers of affected persons, chaotic spontaneous movement on foot, limited access to persons of concern, heightened insecurity for humanitarian personnel, and interruptions of the delivery of basic assistance. The contingency plan that emerged broadly met the needs of both scenarios and overall contributed to a heightened level of emergency preparedness.
Generating Scenarios
The best approach to generating scenarios will depend on the situation and the resources available. Techniques which generate several scenarios and then select the best one are the most useful. The two techniques suggested below work best in small- (6-10) to medium-size (10-15) groups. Larger groups such as Roundtables or Working Groups can use the same techniques if they break into smaller sub-groups.
Brainstorming
Brainstorming is a technique in which a group generates several ideas without concern for criticism or negative feedback. In the first stage of the process, all ideas are written down without any restrictions. The uninhibited flow of ideas helps to generate creative scenarios. In the second stage of the process, the scenarios are refined and selected through group discussion. Brainstorming is appropriate where there is great uncertainty about future events. Careful leadership is required in brainstorming sessions to keep the group focused on creative scenario building rather than being critical about ideas generated. It is difficult to use brainstorming effectively in groups of more than 6 or 7 people.
Nominal Group Technique

While brainstorming helps promote creative ideas, a more structured approach is sometimes required. The nominal group technique focuses on individual generation of ideas. In this technique each participant has time to write his or her ideas about the likely scenario. Each person then describes these ideas to the plenary. The advantage of this approach is that the ideas are written down before the group interchange and therefore are not influenced by group think. The nominal group approach is probably the best method of generating quality scenarios. It can be used effectively in larger groups than brainstorming, but is better if limited to 10 or 15 people. The quality of the input will be improved if participants are informed beforehand that they will be asked to contribute scenarios. Generating Scenarios
In the midst of a large, on-going and complex emergency, the team was faced with the need to urgently prepare a contingency plan. In an informal meeting among colleagues, a number of scenarios were thrown onto the table for discussion. The Senior Programme Officer took notes from the meeting and eventually produced three of the most likely planning scenarios, describing the number of affected persons, the security situation, the extent of access to
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concerned populations, the security environment, the feasibility of travel, the expected condition of people, and the speed of onset of the emergency. Key words and phrases were used to describe the scenarios rather than narrative text. All scenarios were presented on one page for quick, easy assimilation by readers. These same scenarios eventually served as the basis for more comprehensive sector-level planning. As it turned out, one of the scenarios, with small differences, unfolded almost exactly as predicted during the informal gathering.
Screening and Selecting

Whatever method is used to develop the contingency planning scenario, it is quite common to end up with a number of different scenarios. These should then be screened for feasibility and the most likely scenario selected.
What if all the scenarios seem equally feasible or likely?
This would be unusual but the scenarios could be limited by: o Combining all of the specific scenarios into a more general scenario. Instead of choosing between two potential influx sites, you could plan for a general influx. Planning can then become more specific when it is clear which is the more likely site. o Choosing one scenario as the most likely, but including the other as an alternative for sectoral consideration. o Submitting the scenarios to a larger group or roundtable process for consideration and a decision.
Projecting Needs
Once a scenario is selected, the next step in the contingency planning process is projecting needs. Making estimates of needs for assisting the affected population is a major part of contingency planning. The estimates made during the contingency planning process will be modified through on-the-ground needs and resources assessment as one of the first tasks should the emergency occur.
Similarities and Differences Among Emergencies

The characteristics of emergencies differ from one to the next. All emergencies involve different populations, or perhaps the same populations in different circumstances. There may also be other differences that are not immediately obvious. Planning, therefore, should be people-oriented to ensure that actual, rather than assumed, needs of those at risk are met. At the same time there are many similarities between emergencies that allow broad planning to be useful.
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In what ways are all emergencies similar?
The basic needs of all human populations for security, food, and shelter are similar, although they require modification relative to physical and cultural factors.
What might a volcanic eruption and a cholera outbreak have in common?
A volcanic eruption and a cholera outbreak require some form of medical services and transport of materials to the emergency site. Clean water may be required to prevent the spread of cholera, and the eruption victims may need new water supplies to replace those that have been damaged. One key similarity is that, like all emergencies, both will need a co-ordinated response.
UNHCRs Budget Sectors

A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. L. M. N. O. P. Food Transport/Logistics Domestic Needs/ Household Support Water Supply Sanitation Health/Nutrition Shelter/Other Infrastructure Community Services Education Crop Production Livestock/Animal Husbandry Fisheries Forestry Income Generation Legal Assistance/ Protection Agency Operational Support
Using Sectoral Lists

The best way to estimate needs of any emergency population is to consider each technical response sector separately. Planning team members can either develop their own sectoral checklists or use those presented in the UNHCRs Handbook for Emergencies. Using ready-made lists is an excellent approach when the lists are supplemented or amended to reflect the unique emergency scenario. Any points added to checklists should be included in an annex to the contingency plan so that they will also be considered in the needs assessments as part of the emergency response. Projected needs should be outlined on the basis of UNHCRs budget sectors, as shown at right, and in the example table of contents on the next page. The budget sectors provide a consistent basis for planning for refugee emergencies and allow a rapid development of budgets. The contingency planning process can be used to increase the familiarity of local NGOs and others with the structure of UNHCR budgets.
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Contingency Plan Table of Contents
Part One Part Two Part Three B.
Planning Scenario Overall Policy Objectives Sector Objectives and Activities
A. Management and overall programme co-ordination Protection, reception and registration C. Food D. Logistics and transport E. F. Shelter and other infrastructure Domestic needs and household support
G. Water H. Environmental sanitation I. J. Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 Annex 5 Annex 6 Health and nutrition Community services and education Acronyms Agency Profiles Members of the Inter-agency Group Participants of Inter-Agency Meeting UNHCR Registration Form Country Map
Sub-Committee and specialised reports Annex 7: Annex 8: Annex 9: Annex 10: Annex 11: Annex 12: Annex 13: Reports by Sub-Committee No. 1: Site location/identification, movement and protection of refugees Reports by Sub-Committee No. 2: Food, non-food items, transport and logistics for relief items Reports by Sub-Committee No. 3: Co-ordination of communication, personnel transport capabilities Reports by Sub-Committee No. 4: Health, sanitation and water Reports by Sub-Committee No. 5: Staff security Reports by Sub-Committee No. 6: Management/administration of refugee locations, settlements/camps Reports by Sub-Committee No. 7: Community services and educationDeveloping the Needs Table
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Developing the Needs Table

Projected Needs Over Time
The needs of the target populations will change throughout the emergency scenario. One way of reflecting these changes is by preparing a needs timeline. The needs timeline is based on the scenario timeline discussed in the last lesson, and has a similar level of detail. The example below is based on the fictional country Ruritania.
Needs Timeline for the Community Services Sector

The percentage of unaccompanied children (UAC) expected from Ruritania will be approximately 0.4% of the total refugee population. The average family size is 5, so there would be 2 UACs for every 100 families. It is assumed that 75% of the UACs will be re-unified with their families within 3-4 days. The following needs projection is based on the refugee flows described in the scenario on page 47. Day numbers in the first column are listed chronologically since the beginning of the emergency, the number of families estimated to arrive by each day are cumulatively listed in the second column, and the estimated cumulative number of unaccompanied children appears in the third column.
Day 1 2 4 7 10 14 21 28 60 90
Families 200 800 2,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200
UACs 4 16 40 60 70 80 84 84 84 84
Reunified 2 30 45 51 60 63 63 63
In care 4 16 38 30 25 29 24 21
Comments Who will identify them? Who will care for them?
Foster care ends. What plans are in place for children who have not been reunified?
The needs timeline helps to provide a more realistic picture of projected needs. For example, it may be impractical to establish a UAC centre since the number of expected UACs is relatively low. The timeline shows that whoever is dealing with the UACs should be operational by day 2 at the latest. Using the scenario timeline enables us as planners to visualise both the scale of the probable needs and when they are likely to be most critical.
Identifying Critical Needs

While the affected population will need a range of services, only some of the needs are likely to be critical in the initial stage of the emergency. It is important that the contingency planning process focus on the immediate critical needs. Critical needs can only be identified with confidence when all sectors are considered.
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Longer-term needs are dependent on the specific capacities of the population and should be identified after the emergency, rather than projected beforehand. Planning for longer-term needs will be more effective if the refugee community is fully involved. Planners, however, should consider the possible long-term impact of the chosen inputs and actions to meet the immediate needs. Contingency PlanningFood & Non-Food Items Rough Estimates
Assumptions: 15,000 refugees arriving per day 5 individuals/family Indicative estimates only
ITEM Food Pulses (50 g/day/person) Cereals (350 g/day/person) Oil (40 g/day/person) Salt (5 g/day/person) High-protein biscuits (50 grams) CSB/oil/sugar/DSM (estimated at 11% of population) (100 g/day/person) MREs for staff Humanitarian Daily Rations (1/d) (HDRs) for two weeks
200,000 returnees 10 70 8 1 10
250,000 refugees 13 88 10 1 13
TOTAL required 23 158 18 2 23 tons/day tons /day tons/day tons/day tons/day
20 3,000,000
25 3,750,000
45 tons/day 9,300 pieces/month 6,750,000 pieces 2 wks
Transport/Logistics People-transporting vehicles Assistance-transporting vehicles Feeder road maintenance Light vehicles Prefabricated warehouses Fuel (35 litres/100 kms)
Domestic items
20
25
45 per day 52 in first mo. 20 18 5,430 litres/day
1-2 litre jerry cans (1 per family) 20 litre jerry can (1 per family) Blankets (2 per family) Kitchen sets (1 per family) Kerosene stoves (1 per family) Kerosene (20 litres/mo/family) Water Water tankers Portable pail tanks Bladders Portable tap stands Piping
40,000 40,000 80,000 40,000 40,000 800,000
50,000 50,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 1,000,000
90,000 90,000 180,000 90,000 90,000 1,800,000 litres/month 9 9 124 124 ???
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ITEM Health Essential drug kits @ pop 10,000 Hospital tents Solar refrigerators EPI kits @ pop 10,000
200,000 returnees
250,000 refugees
TOTAL required
20 18 9 2
Shelter Plastic sheets (1 per family) Cardboard pole set Plastic sheets (camp admin) Tents (for vulnerables, estimated @ 10% of population) Multi-purpose tents for camp administration Admin Support Codan HF radios VHF walkie-talkies Repeaters Satellite telephones Generators Fuel (1.7/10 km vehicles) and (5 litres/hr for generators)
36,000 36,000
45,000 45,000
81,000 81,000 2,000 9,000 27 15 40 5 4 10 1,929 litres/day
4,000
5,000
Which of the UNHCR sectors listed in the text above are likely to be critical in the initial stages of an emergency?
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While the relative importance of the different sectors will vary with each emergency, it is likely that the following sectors with key questions will be critical: Food: What is the nutritional status of the refugees? What food are they likely to have? What is available locally? What do they traditionally eat? Transport/Logistics: What is the total tonnage that will need to be transported? Will there be a need for reinforcing existing capacity for ports, roads, warehousing, or transport? Domestic Needs/Household Support: What items are needed? Water Supply: What is the availability of water in the area? Will water be the chief criteria for site selection? Sanitation: What are current sanitary practices? What sort of latrines is culturally accepted? Will other sanitation services be needed? Health/Nutrition: What health problems are the refugees likely to have? Will special facilities be needed for supplementary or therapeutic feeding? Are the refugees moving into a different ecological area? Are particular diseases (TB, drug resistant diseases) going to be a problem? Shelter/Other Infrastructure: Will refugees bring their own shelter? What sort of shelter is both appropriate for these conditions and culturally acceptable? What additional infrastructure (e.g. transit centres) will be needed? Community Services: How many unaccompanied children are there likely to be? Which vulnerable groups (wounded or handicapped, elderly, unaccompanied women) are likely to be in the population? Legal Assistance/Protection: What special protection problems will occur? Are there groups that will require special protection? Agency Operational Support: What extra resources will UNHCR and partners need in the initial stages of this emergency? While Education, Crop Production, Livestock/Animal Husbandry, Fisheries, Forestry, and Income Generation are very important sectors and may even be critical in some emergencies, they are more likely to be carried out after a situation is stabilised.
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Testing the Assumptions

After the needs assessment has been prepared, the assumptions made in the scenario should be tested. This may be done by changing the assumptions and examining the effect of the changes on projected needs. Major assumptions to be tested include: o o o o o Number of refugees Time of year Location of entry points Speed of occurrence (slow onset or sudden onset) Level of funding available
Give an example where alternating the time of year would have a major impact on the projected needs.
Changing the time of year at which an emergency occurs in the scenario can affect a whole range of expected needs. In particular, these would include the primary needs for food and water. If an emergency occurred before the harvest rather than after, additional quantities of food could be needed. If it occurred late in the dry season, more water resources might be necessary.
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Summary
Scenarios for contingency plans should be grounded in reality. The detail in a scenario should match the urgency of the situation. Limiting detail in the scenarios to the essentials will make the contingency plan applicable to more situations. Removing sensitive elements, granting observer status, scenario-less planning, or training can address sensitivity about scenarios. Brainstorming and nominal group techniques can help to generate scenarios. Each method has advantages and disadvantages and is suitable for different situations. Although each emergency is different, basic human needs allow many of the emergency needs to be projected in advance. It is useful to base lists of needs on UNHCRs standard budget sectors. Contingency planning should focus on the expected critical emergency sectors. Scenario assumptions should be tested to see how sensitive the projected needs are to the assumptions made.
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1. Contingency planning is not always welcome. 2. Every possible scenario should be planned for. 3. In the nominal group process, the group nominates an individual who then speaks for the group. 4. Projecting needs before an emergency means you dont need to assess them once the emergency happens. 5. Using ready made sectoral checklists is the best approach when they are supplemented by additional points specific to the population or emergency in question.
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. Which of the following is a very ineffective way of generating scenarios? A s B s C s D s Brainstorming Group interaction Focusing on the worst possible event that might possibly occur Nominal group technique
7. Which of the following is not true of the nominal group method? A s B s C s D s It produces a lot of high quality ideas Participants tend to be committed only to their own ideas It combines the advantages of individual and group ideas It can be used with groups of 30 or more
8. Which of the following is not true of needs projection A s B s C s D s All emergencies are unique Needs may be broadly similar in different emergencies We do not need to be people oriented if we know the likely needs All emergencies require a co-ordinated response.
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9. Which of the following sectors is unlikely to be critical in the initial stages of an emergency? A s B s C s D s Water Supply Legal Assistance/Protection Crop Production Community Services
10. Needs projection for contingency planning should: A s B s C s D s Focus on immediate, critical needs Cover every possible sector Cover every possible scenario Cover the long term as well as the immediate needs
You are working in a country where you feel there are clear signs that a spontaneous repatriation is imminent. There is disagreement among the different agencies and planning partners, many of whom have a long history of working in this region, about what proportion of the refugee population will repatriate this year. What technique would you use to generate the most likely figure for refugee repatriation? Justify your choice.
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T F F F T
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
C B, D C C A
Exercise Answer The nominal group method would be preferable to brainstorming since each member can write out their own idea separately, and then bring it to the larger group for comparison and discussion. It may be that, if each person is allowed to present his/her idea independently, several may be quite similar. Brainstorming may not be the best choice since the members of the planning group are very experienced and therefore already firm in their opinions about this particular question. Rather than a creative session of generating new ideas, a more careful analysis of each members viewpoints is required.
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Resource Assessment
s What resource inventories are s How to prepare physical

resource inventories
s About the problems associated

with assessing human resources
s A method for cataloguing human

resources
s Two types of human resources
Resource Inventories
Resource inventories are an essential part of any contingency plan. They are simply lists of resources that can be accessed and used in an emergency. There are two types of resource inventories: o Physical resource inventories are inventories of physical items, funds, and infrastructure. o Human resource inventories are lists of resource people and documents, together with the skills which different agencies can offer in an emergency.
Why should resources be catalogued?
For the emergency response, there will be an immediate need for both resources and information on their availability. While some of the information will change, such as current stock levels of relief items, much of the information remains the same over long periods such as port handling capacity. As discussed later in this chapter, since human resources are subject to more constraints, cataloguing them is more difficult than cataloguing physical resources. Nonetheless, the cataloguing process is similar for both physical and human resources and is an essential part of building a database of information that is necessary in an emergency.
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Resource Inventories and the Planning Process

To develop resource inventories, participants must be willing to discuss the resources that they have. Sharing resource information is an important part of the relationship building that is fostered through the contingency planning process. If sharing agency-specific information is problematic, agency resources may sometimes be included in the contingency plan without identifying the agency.
How to Prepare Resource Inventories

The sectoral planning teams must collect and process data to prepare resource inventories. While it is interesting to know every detail of every resource needed in an emergency, this is not appropriate for contingency planning.
Why is collecting extremely detailed lists of resources not appropriate for contingency planning?
The process of gathering and processing information also consumes resources. Gathering and processing more information than is needed is a waste of resources. Contingency planning is an overview process in which the emphasis should be on the big picture. Too much emphasis on detail may make the plan less useful if the actual events differ significantly from the scenario. The golden rule for data collection is to collect only the data that you really need. Each sectoral team can be asked to identify: o The data needed for planning in their sector o Where this data can be found o How it is to be processed The data collection goals of the sectoral team can be moderated by asking them to both collect and process the data. Data processing in this context does not necessarily refer to processing data with a computer, but to transforming raw data into the information to be presented in the contingency plan draft.
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Information Sources
Most of the information you will need is probably already available. Data gathering may include any of the following activities: o Search for internal data sources Previous drafts of contingency plans or mission reports may have the information that you need. o Use sources that are publicly available It would be unnecessary to hire a cartographer to produce maps if there are suitable maps at the Surveyor Generals office. o Look for reports held by partners Sectoral studies, development plans, and consultants reports will be useful. Working or sectoral groups may also be able to locate internal documents. o Collect any information that is still needed. o Verify that the information is correct This applies whether the information is from published or private sources.
Physical Resource Inventories

Physical resource inventories contain detailed information on contingency stocks of relief items. Once this information is collected, it must be processed. The simplest way is to prepare a table showing the total present stocks of each item. This may be broken down by region and include stocks expected to arrive in the next month. More detail could eventually be added, such as a timeline of deliveries. To facilitate data collection, the format used should be easy to process. For physical resources, a form might be prepared showing types of items likely to be needed and requesting partner agencies to fill in quantities available. All of the data collected regarding the potential physical resources will constitute an important informational resource in its own right, since information that resources exist can be as important as the resources themselves.
Contingency Plan Water Supply Resources
Element Lake Kivu Pump Station

Pumps
Unit
Each
Number
4
Location
Ave. Comiche
Agency
ODA
Remarks
Water Tankers
Operational (1 Sept. 95) American tankers DAF ODA ERF UNHCR Mercedes UNICEF Volvo *** (A. Selemani) *** (A. Selemani) Under repair American tankers 23m3 7m3 19m3 12m3 13m3 55m3 30m3 23m3 1 3 4 14 1 5 3 3 Ave. Comiche ODA
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Pumps
P4 P3 P2 4-in 3-in 2-in Metres 95 m3 70 m3 70 m3 45 m3 10 m3 6 m3 30 m3 15 m3 3 m3 2 m3 Each Each 5 4 4 700 1140 1450 0 0 0 400 9 2 3 9 20 1 6 2 10 7 108 483 OXFAM Stores OXFAM Stores Ave. Comiche OXFAM Stores Accogenoki OXFAM Stores Accogenoki OXFAM Stores OXFAM OXFAM ODA OXFAM UNHCR OXFAM UNHCR OXFAM
Pipe
90 mm MDPE 180 mm MDPE 32 mm MDPE 90 mm PVC 90 mm FLEX 100 mm FLEX Canvas firehose
Storage Tanks
T-95 T-70 T-70 T-45 T-10 Black Plastic Tanks Bladder Tank Bladder Tank Bladder Tank Bladder Tank
Tapstands
Tapstands Taps
Consumables
Fuel OXFAM ODA UNHCR Chlorine OXFAM ODA UNHCR Litres Kgs 4000 20000 0 3000 100 4000 OXFAM Stores Ave. Comiche AGIP OXFAM Stores Ave. Comiche Accogenoki OXFAM ODA UNHCR OXFAM ODA UNHCR
No reserves
Time and Physical Resources

Physical resource inventories should clearly identify the time assumptions implicit in them. While 1,000 blankets may be in stock in the central store initially, and 10,000 available on call from the regional contingency stock, it will take time to call the regional stocks forward when needed. A resource table for blankets in stock and expected delivery times is shown below. Note that the figures are cumulative rather than daily. For example, UNHCR expects to receive 10,000 extra blankets by day 7 to add to the 1,000 already in stock.
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Domestic
Item Blankets
Stocks available at the capital

Day 1 2 4 7 10 14 21 28 UNHCR 1,000 1,000 1,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 ICRC 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 UNICEF 5,000 NGO 1 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 NGO 2 500 500 500 Total 2,500 2,500 2,500 12,500 16,500 17,000 17,000 22,000
These figures show availability at the capital city, not at the refugee sites. As always, the level of timeline detail should be appropriate for the level of planning. The time intervals should be based on the scenario timeline. The scenario timeline can be consolidated and simplified by skipping intervals during which no change is foreseen. For example, the above timeline can be simplified by skipping intervals with no estimated likely change.
Domestic
Item Blankets
Stocks available at the capital

Day 1 7 10 14 28 UNHCR 1,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 ICRC 1,000 1,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 UNICEF 5,000 NGO 1 500 500 500 500 500 NGO 2 500 500 Total 2,500 12,500 16,500 17,000 22,000
Human Resource Inventories

Dynamic human resources include people, agencies, organisations and teams. Static human resources are written records of the information or knowledge of the individuals or teams. While an expert on a particular country is a dynamic resource, the book that he or she writes on the country is a static resource.
How would you classify: (a) the contingency plan, (b) the contingency planning process in terms of static and dynamic human resources?
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The contingency plan is a static human resource. The planning process itself, carried out by the contingency planning team, is a dynamic human resource. In addition to physical inventories, UNHCR manages an inventory of dynamic and static human resources for emergencies. Emergency Preparedness and Response Officers and the Emergency Response Teams are dynamic resources. Static human resources include texts like the Handbook for Emergencies, the Guidelines on Contingency Planning, and this course. Many of UNHCRs partners also maintain human resource inventories such as rosters of key staff. In emergencies, human resources are often more critical than physical resources.
Why are human resources more critical in emergencies?
Human resources often take longer to develop and are harder to secure than physical resources. It may be easier to purchase some types of physical resources than to find a management team. Even when staff are available, it is likely to take some time before they reach their full potential as a team.
Problems in Cataloguing Human Resources

Although the process that sector teams follow for developing human resource inventories is similar to the process for physical resources, the chief constraints in cataloguing human resources are sensitivity, staff turnover, and the lack of standardisation. In cataloguing human resources, judgements must be made about the effectiveness of individuals, organisations, and teams. Agencies may be sensitive to these judgements, especially if they are negative. Problems can be avoided by adopting an approach under which no one is excluded. One agency may become the lead agency for a sector and other agencies can negotiate their roles with the lead agency. Another approach is to pair agencies. For example, an international agency with strong logistics skills may be paired with a national agency with local knowledge. Staff turnover is often relatively high for the international staff of relief agencies. Contracts of six months, twelve months or two years are common. This turnover rate means that field staff characteristics can change quickly, and that an agencys competency (or willingness) to carry out a particular task can also change. These changes pose a particular problem for contingency planners, as human resources can change from one day to the next. Staff turnover is an even bigger problem for agencies relying on international staff. National staff turnover tends to be slower and the local human resource base more durable. The third major problem with cataloguing human resources is the lack of standardisation. It is relatively easy to specify standards for medical supplies but requirements to staff a health agency may be more difficult to specify. The requirements for an emergency response team are even more difficult to describe as the exact working context will not be known beforehand. An emergency response team from Agency A may also be completely different from that of Agency B.
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Constraints on Increasing Human Capacity

Emergency interventions often depend on the ability of partner agencies to increase their emergency response capacity. Physical resource capacity can be increased if funds are available, but human capacity is much harder to expand rapidly. For example, the staff and skills required to manage a fleet of five trucks is considerably different from that required to manage a fleet of 100 trucks. Limitations in human resource capacity are often a bigger constraint than limitations in physical capacity and can be the cause of delays between the delivery of physical resources and their effective use. Contingency planners need to consider the effects of such constraints.
What factors might constrain partners from increasing human resources?
There are many factors but the principal constraints to human resource capacity are: staff availability, funding, policy, and other commitments/demands on staff. The availability of experienced and effective personnel is the biggest constraint in any emergency. Many agencies now maintain emergency rosters to deal with the initial phases of an emergency. While such rosters are helpful, staffing problems tend to persist. Training is one way of reducing the staffing problems. UNHCRs Emergency Management Training Programme (EMTP), Workshop for Emergency Managers (WEM), and other training initiatives are major means of increasing the pool of effective emergency staff.
UNHCRs Emergency Response Team Roster

Since 1992, UNHCR has maintained an Emergency Response Team roster of fulltime personnel available for emergency deployment within 24-72 hours notice. The some 30 staff on the roster are drawn from various duty stations in the field and HQs and serve as UNHCRs reserve where either existing capacities are not available or are unable to cope. ERT members are selected every six months, undergoing a 7-10 day intensive emergency management training before being included in the roster. ERT members serve on the roster for six months and may be called upon anytime for an emergency deployment of up to 60 days. Since its creation, almost 200 staff members from UNHCRs Emergency Response Team have been deployed to respond to emergencies in over 30 countries around the world. These teams have often arrived within hours of the onset of emergencies, providing the crucial initial assessment and response to the unfolding emergency. This response mechanism has been at the foundation of UNHCRs emergency preparedness and response capability.
Current funding levels and uncertainty about future funding also tend to limit the expansion of human resource capacity. While constraints in current funding can restrict hiring and purchasing, uncertainties about future funding constrains the development of organisational capacities. Increasing capacity involves investments in hiring and training staff and securing other resources.
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Agencies will be reluctant to increase the size of their organisations if there is a high risk that they will be forced to reduce their size in the near future. Constraints on agency capacities due to internal or external policy decisions occur in nearly all emergency operations. An agencys policies or mandate, for example, may limit its ability to expand into new, but needed, areas. Internal constraints may include arduous hiring processes to ensure fairness, or a policy of centralised decision making, leading to inflexible and slow response. All actors in an emergency can be subject to complex political processes which may result in decisions to: o Close the programme in the country o Restrict growth (leaving the agency unable to meet suddenly increased demand) o Not work with a particular group o Stop working in some sectors and concentrate in others Another frequent constraint on human resource capacity is the existence of other commitments. While agencies that perform well are more likely to be selected for an expanded role in an emergency, they may not be able to continue to meet both the requirements of their present roles and the expanded role. Contingency planners should take the level of existing agency commitments into account when considering agencies for specific roles. Agencies may be able to execute each of the tasks that they are allocated in the plan; however, they may not be able to execute all of them simultaneously. A realistic appraisal of capacities is more feasible when all partners are involved in contingency planning.
Human Resources and Timelines

The nature of dynamic human resources makes it difficult to inventory their availability by use of a timeline as can be done with physical resources. Some factors, such as the number of truck drivers likely to be available, can be represented on the timeline, but other resources are more difficult to represent. The next chapter on gap identification suggests an approach to account for variations in human resource capacity over time.
Sectoral Lists
Each sectoral team should develop a complete list of physical and human resources for its own sector. Agencies should be listed under the sectors that they have the capacity to implement effectively. Dynamic human resources should be listed in two ways:
1. A list of the resources for each sector, mentioning the lead implementing partner for whole sectors or parts of sectors. 2. A list of players, contact details, and human resources available (on a timeline). This list should include implementing partners, individual experts, commercial organisations, etc. Static human resources should be presented as: 1. A list of all the reference documents collected and consulted in preparing the plan. This is similar to a list of references for any report. 2. A list of the key resources or guide documents for each sector. This would often specify the procedures to be used, such as food distribution will be made in accordance with UNHCRs Commodity Distribution: a practical guide for field staff or medical screening in accordance with a medical agencys Guide to Rapid Health Screening.
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Partners should be requested to forward copies of useful documents. Experienced staff should also be asked to write reports on their experiences with particular problems for inclusion in a common set of reference materials. In addition, the following listwhich is only a starting pointindicates the information about physical resources that should be presented for each sector.
Food: Local and regional stocks by type, food pipeline situation, sources of highenergy foods, projections of national stocks over the emergency period. Transport/Logistics: Port capacity, total and available; road and rail capacity. Airlift capacity, nationally and regionally; airport capacity. Details of road network, average journey times (by season). Warehousing capacity along the likely logistics chain. Domestic Needs/Household Support: Current in-country stocks of relief items. Availability of regional stockpiles. Details of local manufacturers and their capacity. Water Supply: Likely water sources (surface, spring, shallow wells or deep boreholes) in the project area (from regional water plan). Stocks of emergency water equipment in country. Drilling equipment. Sanitation: Stocks of sanitation materials, tools etc. Sources of latrine platforms and sanitation tools and materials. Health/Nutrition: Stocks of medicines and medical equipment. Referral hospitals. Feeding kits, cooking sets, special food stocks. Shelter/Other Infrastructure: Possible sites, stocks of shelter materials, availability/ condition status of heavy construction equipment. Community Services: Registration cards. Clothing and other resources for unaccompanied minors and other vulnerable groups. Legal Assistance/Protection: Stocks of registration forms, registration cards, and registration materials. Agency Operational Support: Vehicles, radios, handsets, PACTORs, computers, field kits, staff housing. Education: Sources of textbooks and school materials Crop Production: Seed stocks, agricultural tools. Livestock/Animal Husbandry: Stocks of veterinary medicines. Fisheries: Nets, fishing lines, etc. Forestry: Stocks of seedling poly-pots, seedlings, tree seeds. Income Generation: Tools and equipment.
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Resource inventories are lists of resources which can be used in an emergency. Physical resources include cars, trucks, funds, and infrastructure. Mutual trust is needed for partners to share details of their resource inventories. Resource inventories are best prepared by the sectoral planning teams. Human resources are built around the skills and knowledge of people, teams, and organisations. Human resources can either be static (written down or recorded) or dynamic, essentially contained in the knowledge of individuals or teams and therefore likely to change over time. Human resources are much more likely to constrain emergency response than physical resources. Human resources are harder to assess because of sensitivity, staff turnover, and lack of standardisation. Staff requirements, funding, other commitments, and organisational policy all constrain the capacity of partners to expand human resources in an emergency. Only collect the data that you need. Look first internally, then for published information, then from partners and lastly from research. All data must be verified.
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1. Data processing for contingency planning requires sophisticated computers. 2. There is no need to verify information from published sources 3. Organisational policies may limit an agencys ability to increase its human resources. 4. Staff turnover is a bigger problem for national NGOs than it is for international organisations. 5. When agencies execute their present tasks well, you can be sure that they can handle more responsibility without problems.
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. When collecting data you should: A s B s C s D s Collect as much information as possible while you have the chance Only collect what you really need Collect as much detail as possible about the areas of interest Collect all the available information on the areas of interest
7. UNHCRs inventory of human resources for emergencies does not include: A s B s C s D s The Emergency Response Teams Emergency Preparedness and Response Officers Telecommunications equipment and vehicles The UNHCR Handbook for Emergencies
8. Cataloguing human resources is difficult because of: A s B s C s D s The sensitivities involved High turnover of key staff changing an agencys capacity The lack of standardisation All of the above
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9. Which of the following is not a constraint on increasing human capacity? A s B s C s D s Staff Concerns about future funding Agency policies Additional training
10. Methods for overcoming the constraints in cataloguing human resources might include A s B s Requiring staff to sign long-term contracts. Developing standard requirements for potential emergency response team members (that is, specific skills and knowledge that must be mastered before someone is eligible to respond to an emergency). Pairing an international agency with specific sectoral expertise with a local NGO. Asking donors to fund all the necessary positions.
C s D s
Exercise A You are considering an airlift operation as a means of transporting items that would urgently be needed in the event of an emergency. You will probably need to list: o The location of the airstripname, code, grid reference, altitude o Details about the types of planes which could land (runway surface and condition, runway length and width, accessibility in different weather conditions, navigation aids, fuel availability) o What the cargo handling capacity is like (apron capacity, cargo handling equipment, warehousing on site, customs clearance rules, access to road network), and how much of this capacity is now available. o Procedures and rules (flight and landing clearance requirements, landing and other fees). Where should you look for this information?
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Exercise B Refer to the physical resources list on page 69. Now prepare a listby sectorfor some of the key human resources, either static or dynamic. Try to identify at least two human resources per sector (other than the UNHCR Handbook for Emergencies or other general UNHCR resources).
Sector Food Transport/Logistics Domestic Needs/Household Support Water Supply Sanitation Health/Nutrition Shelter/Other Infrastructure Community Services Education Crop Production Livestock/Animal Husbandry Fisheries Forestry Income Generation Legal Assistance/Protection Agency Operational Support
Key Human Resources ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ________________________________________________
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F F T F F
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
B C D D B, C
Exercise Answers A The search for information does not start by ringing the airport and asking questions. This can lead to partial or misleading answers. Unless you are an expert, you will not know all of the questions to ask. Start as always by moving through the information sources: internal, published, partners, and surveys. Always finish by verifying the data you have collected. For the airport list the search might include: o Search for internal data sources. Previous drafts of contingency plans, logistics operations plans, or consultants reports may have the information that you need. Check publicly available sources if you cannot find the information internally. This is often difficult in developing countries, but airport information is often available from standard manuals. If you still do not have the needed information, look for reports held by partners. UNDP, the World Bank, or the Ministry may hold sectoral studies or consultants reports covering the airports. If you still do not have the information needed, contact the airport or the Transport Ministry and ask them for the outstanding information. Specific queries are more likely to be answered than very general ones. In some cases you may have to visit the airstrip, count the operational cargo dollies or even measure the runway yourself.
Finally, you need to verify the information you have collected by cross-checking it. Ask the airport if the figures given in the three-year old sectoral study are correct, for example. Ask regular users of the airport what the problems are etc.
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B Your list may have included some of the following resources. The list leaves out such standard resources as the UNHCR Handbook for Emergencies as this is a human resource for every sector. This is only a partial list as there are many more possibilities. Only some of the resources listed will be relevant in a given emergency. In the list below, agencies refer to NGOs and others with particular skills in the sector.
Sector Food
Key Human Resources WFP, Ministry of Agriculture, FAO, distribution agencies, HQ units, distribution guidelines. Ministry of Transport, clearance procedures, Supply and Transport Section, trucking companies, logistics NGOs, IOM, road maps, road contractors, emergency bridging teams. Standard specifications, distribution guidelines, Supply and Transport Section, distribution agencies, manufacturers, suppliers, Ministry of Commerce, logisticians. Ministry of Public Works, technical support staff, national water plans, national standards, suppliers, drilling companies, agencies with water capacity, equipment suppliers, and water engineers. Agencies, Ministry of Health, national standards, sanitation training materials, latrine programmes, sanitation specialists. Ministry of Health, HQ units, WHO, UNICEF, Health agencies, suppliers of high-energy foods, national standards, nutritionists. Local government, technical support staff, agencies, road contractors, Ministries, physical planners. Ministry of Social Welfare, Ministry for Women, agencies, national policies, residential care units, social workers. Ministry of Education, UNICEF, UNESCO, curricula, sources of school materials, agencies. Ministry of Agriculture, FAO, seed suppliers, agencies, national plan, land data, agriculturalists. Ministry of Agriculture, FAO, national policies, animal disease control units, agencies, national policy, veterinarians, range specialists.
Transport/Logistics
Domestic Needs/Household Support
Water Supply
Sanitation
Health/Nutrition
Shelter/Other Infrastructure
Community Services
Education
Crop Production
Livestock/Animal Husbandry
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Sector Fisheries
Key Human Resources Ministry of Fisheries, net and fishing equipment makers, processing facilities, agencies. Ministry of Forestry, national plan, nurseries, suppliers, UNEP, agencies, foresters. Local NGOs, Ministry, development agencies, market surveys. Conventions, national law, Ministry, security services, UNHCR Protection officers, embassies, screening procedures, prior group determinations. Catalogue of emergency resources, agency addresses, employment agencies, vehicle suppliers and repair workshops, telecommunications equipment suppliers and technicians.
Forestry
Income Generation
Legal Assistance/Protection
Agency Operational Support
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Identifying Service Gaps
s How to apply the previous

lessons on scenarios, projecting needs, and assessing resources to identify critical gaps in emergency response service.
s How to use time-based gap

identification sheets
s How to apply sensitivity analysis

to gap identification
Identifying Potential Gaps

In the previous lessons, you learned about projecting needs based on chosen scenarios and preparing resource inventories. In this lesson, these elements are merged to identify potential critical gaps. Gaps arise where there is a shortfall between needs and the resources available. Why is it important to identify potential gaps?
We want to identify the potential gaps: o To highlight inconsistencies in our planning. o To consider the effect of changing policies to prevent these potential gaps from developing. o So that action (e.g. training or stockpiling) can be taken now to reduce the likelihood of the gap occurring. o To allow management time to be concentrated on the most critical areas in the emergency through prior knowledge of where the gaps will occur.
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Physical and Human Resource Gaps

Service gaps can occur in both human and physical resources. Often it is assumed that if the physical resource gap is filled the human resource gap will be filled simultaneously, but this is not the case.
Can you give an example of filling a physical gap without filling the associated human gap?
There are hundreds of possible examples. Yours may have included some of the following: o o o o Importing material before there is agreement on duty free import Dispatching non-food-items to a site without anyone to receive or distribute them Importing a vehicle fleet before it is clear that there is anyone to operate it Flying in vaccines without a partner to manage the cold chain
In many cases, responsible and experienced emergency managers will fill the physical resource gap even though it is not clear that the human resource gap will be filled. Although this might not seem very sensible, it is often the only responsible course of action to follow.
Why should physical gaps be filled even if human needs are unclear?
Real emergencies are dynamic, chaotic events, unlike planning exercises. Emergency managers have to take risks. One risk is that resources will not always be very efficiently used. The reasons for filling the physical gap even when it is not clear how the human gap is to be filled include: o An unacceptable risk of delay in waiting until everything is clear. o Lead times can be longer for some physical resources than for the accompanying human resources. o The nature of human resources means that they are subject to change. It is not sensible to predicate whole programmes on such variable resources. o The burdensome decision making responsibilities for staff in emergencies make it sensible to deal with each problem as it arises instead of trying to develop a comprehensive solution. o The human resources needed to support physical requirements, such as the distribution of non-food items, may be relatively trivial and the manager may be confident of finding an implementing partner.
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Relief responses can be constrained by human resources

Response in complex emergency operations requires the timely arrival of personnel and equipment. For example, in one large-scale emergency the initial emergency response temporarily faltered when essential telecommunications equipment arrived in a remote field, but the qualified technicians who were needed to install the systems were not immediately available for deployment. In the days that followed, emergency staff were unable to communicate with the main office in the capital who were increasingly uncertain about the whereabouts and security of the emergency team.
If there is good contingency planning beforehand, there will be fewer human resource gaps. In an emergency, it may be acceptable for an emergency manager to fill the physical resource gap when the human resource gap is still unfilled. The same approach is not acceptable during contingency planning when there is much less time pressure. The contingency plan should attempt to identify how important human resource needs are to be filled.
Gap Identification Sheets

Gap identification sheets are used to identify sectors where there is a shortfall of resources to meet expected needs. The sectors or needs are placed in a column on the left and the rows are headed with the names of camps or details of the sectors. Each cell in the grid is then filled in with the status of who will provide each service. This is very useful for highlighting sectors where no one is presently active.
This gap identification sheet highlights areas where agency coverage is needed.
Sector Food Household Water Sanitation Health
Reception Centre WFP / NGO 1 UNHCR/ NGO 1 UNICEF UNICEF NGO 4
Camp A WFP/ NGO 2 UNHCR/ NGO 2 NGO 2 ?? NGO 4
Camp B WFP NGO 1 UNHCR/ NGO 2 NGO 3 NGO 3 NGO 3
In this example, there is no implementing partner for the sanitation sector in Camp A. This is a very simple example and might be used at the initial planning stage. Gap identification sheets that indicate responsible implementing partners against specific tasks are more useful than those covering whole sectors. The next gap identification sheet identifies tasks that still require an implementing agency.
Sector Sanitation Build Public Latrines Support Family Latrines Rubbish collection Sanitation technician Health Education Medical Waste
Reception Centre UNICEF UNICEF Not Applicable NGO 1 ?? UNICEF NGO 4
Camp A ?? NGO 2 ?? ?? Ministry of Health Ministry of Health NGO 4
Camp B NGO 3 NGO 3 NGO 3 ?? Ministry of Health Ministry of Health NGO 3
In this example, no implementing partner has yet been found to establish family latrines in Camp A. Gap identification sheets can be useful in indicating a lack of a service across all sites. They might lead to changes in policy so that a sector is no longer critical, or to a special effort to locate a partner who might fill the gaps. The technique of gap identification can also be applied to physical resources such as food or domestic items.
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During the contingency planning process for the Ruritanian emergency it was decided that one piece of plastic sheeting and two jerry cans would be issued at the reception centre to each family. The scenario projects that 4,000 families are likely to arrive in Reception Centre A. In the planning process, agencies indicated their stocks as shown in the following gap identification sheet.
Domestic Needs
Item Plastic sheeting Jerry cans
Site: Reception Centre A

Need 4,000 8,000 UNHCR 2,000 1,000 ICRC 1,000 1,000 NGO 1 500 Total 3,500 2,000 Gap 500 6,000
In this case the gap identification sheet prepared during the planning process might lead to: o A decision to issue only one jerry can per family in the initial distribution. o A request for a larger contingency stock of jerry cans. One flaw in this example is that it indicates relief supplies without clearly specifying the human resources or responsibilities. The sheet above can be improved as follows:
Domestic Needs
Item Plastic sheeting Delivery Warehousing Distribution Jerry cans Delivery Warehousing Distribution
Site: Reception Centre A

Need 4,000 UNHCR 2,000 Contract Common Common 8,000 NGO 1 NGO 1 1,000 Contract Common Common NGO 1 NGO 1 1,000 ICRC 2,000 6,000 ICRC 1,000 ICRC NGO 1 500 NGO 1 Total 3,500 Gap 500
This gap identification sheet clearly identifies who is going to be responsible for the supply, the delivery and the distribution of the plastic sheeting. The same approach can be applied through all the sectors to identify shortfalls in advance. As mentioned above, it is important to consider agency capacity and commitments for the tasks mentioned on the sheet. The sheeting and jerry cans should be cross checked with those for other sites to be sure they are available.
Timeline Gap Identification Sheets

One weakness of the sample gap identification sheets shown above is the underlying assumption that everything will be needed and available at the same time. This is probably unrealistic. Jerry cans in the central store must be moved to the refugees who may be a long distance away. In emergencies the speed of delivery is critical. Using timeline gap identification sheets allows the vital time factor to be considered in contingency planning.
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Timeline gap identification sheets are similar to the gap identification sheets presented earlier, except that: o All data is given with reference to a time frame. o Data is presented in terms of receipt at the site rather than dispatch from the main stores. The timelines used should match those used for the scenario, needs projection, and resources assessment. Like any other tools, timelines depend on the accuracy of information on which they are based. Timelines can only work when partners provide realistic, rather than optimistic estimates for the time it will take to carry out different actions.
How could partners be encouraged to give realistic estimates in the planning process?
Techniques for encouraging realistic time estimates include: o Asking partners to give optimistic, pessimistic and probable time frames, having considered the other possible demands on their resources at the same time. o Asking everyone in the team to individually estimate how long an activity will take. o Using the above methods and then using group discussion to select a time between the average and the most pessimistic. o Having experienced emergency managers on the team to ensure that estimates are realistic. In order to avoid listing all the human resources separately, they are usually combined with the associated physical resources into total figures. There are two ways of including the human resources: o In the physical inventory timeline. For example, the timeline inventory for relief goods might be based on expected availability at the site rather than at the airport. This would then take into account human resources needed for clearing, loading, transport etc. o By explicitly stating the human resources constraints. For example, when a partner only has the capacity to dispatch 500 tonnes per day from a warehouse, this is stated as a constraint in the timeline. Thus, when the transport capacity rises above 500 tonnes, the total capacity does not automatically rise since it is constrained by the dispatch capacity. Because events rarely happen exactly as planned, timeline gap identification sheets use cumulative timelines rather than daily figures. This means that the figure for day 10 is the figure for everything up to day 10.
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A timeline gap identification sheet for the supply and distribution of plastic sheeting to the refugees in Reception Centre A is shown below. The human resource constraints in the release, dispatch, loading and transport of the sheets to the reception centre are implicit in the quantity shown on site. The human aspects of on-site warehousing and distribution at the reception centre are reflected in the Distribution Capacity column. The total available supply as constrained by either total physical supply on site or the ability to access and distribute it by human resources is under Constrained Supply.
Domestic Needs
Item Day Need
Site: Reception Centre A: Plastic Sheeting

UNHCR ICRC NGO 1 Total Supply Distrib. Capacity Constr. Supply Gap
Overview On Site
0 1 2 4 7 10 14
4,000 200 800 2,000 3,000 3,500 4,000
2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
500 500 500 500 500 500
3,500 500 1,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
500 2,000 4,000 6,000
500 2,000 3,500 3,500
500 200 800 1,500 1,000 500
In this case the number of plastic sheets distributed is governed by both the supply to the site and the distribution capacity at the site. These are the two constraining factors. On day 2, the supply of sheets is 500, but distribution capacity is still nil, so no sheets can be distributed and the constrained supply is nil. On day 14, the distribution capacity is 6,000, but the supply is only 3,500 to date, so the constrained supply is only 3,500. The constrained capacity is the lesser of either the supply or the distribution capacity for the given day. Subtracting the constrained supply from the need gives the gap. This example shows that initially, the distribution capacity on site is a bigger constraint than the supply of plastic sheeting. Timeline gap identification sheets are a key tool in contingency planning. On the basis of the above timeline gap identification, NGO 1, the NGO responsible for warehousing and distribution at the reception centre might decide to speed up the initial distribution by: o undertaking some additional training now o preparing distribution kits in advance o changing the planned distribution mode Alternatively, the sector planners might decide to suggest changing the distribution policy for the reception centre, or change the tasks allotted to NGO 1 to reduce its commitments elsewhere, or suggest the addition of another partner with greater distribution capacity. Including estimates of human capacity is very difficult because of the dynamic nature of human capacities. Realistic estimates of human capacity are far more difficult to get than other capacity estimates. Nevertheless, it is still very useful to use such estimates for planning, particularly when plans are tested by using sensitivity analysis as described below. Timeline gap identification sheets are extremely useful for staff who are implementing the project in the emergency. Realistic estimates of the likely availability of goods on site put staff in a good position to know what short-term emergency measures they may need to take. They also will be better informed and better able to discuss resource availability with refugee leaders.
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Testing AssumptionsSensitivity Analysis

Because of the uncertainties involved in any form of contingency planning, it is essential to test the plans made during the planning process to see how sensitive they are to the underlying assumptions.
Where do we make assumptions in contingency planning?
The primary area for making assumptions is in the scenario we have developed for the plan and in its timeline. The projected needs and the inventories of physical and human resources also contain inherent assumptions.
The following example tests the distribution constraint. We have assumed that NGO 1 (which is responsible for storage and distribution at Reception Centre A) trains distribution teams in advance and prepares distribution kits so that they are ready to distribute on day 2 and be at full speed by day 4.
Domestic Needs
Item Day Need
Site: Reception Centre A: Plastic Sheeting

UNHCR ICRC NGO 1 Total Supply Distrib. Capacity Constr. Supply Gap
Overview On Site
0 1 2 4 7 10 14
4,000 200 800 2,000 3,000 3,500 4,000
2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
500 500 500 500 500 500
3,500 500 1,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
500 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
500 1,500 2,000 3,500 3,500
500 200 300 500 1,000 500
The results of this are that distribution capacity is no longer a constraint and that instead the slow delivery of goods from the UNHCR warehouse is the constraint. This may suggest that forward stockpiling is necessary or that the present transport contractor should be changed. The use of computer spreadsheets allows rapid testing of timeline gap identification sheets for a wide number of factors. Because of the uncertainties of estimating human constraints, these should generally be tested to see the effect of different assumptions about human capacity. While such tools are interesting, the chief object is not to generate an endless amount of tables like the ones above, but to identify assumptions where minor changes may have large effects on the plan. These are the assumptions to which the plan is very sensitive and it may be appropriate to refer these assumptions back to the wider team to check that they are widely regarded as valid.
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Identifying gaps allows us to focus management attention on critical areas. Physical resource gaps may have associated human resource gaps which are not automatically filled along with the physical gap. Gap identification sheets facilitate the identification of sectors where there is a gap in the overall emergency response. Timeline gap identification sheets add the dimension of time to contingency plans and allow planners to observe how gaps change over time. Timeline gap identification sheets are good tools for testing your assumptions.
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Chapter 6 Self-Assessment Questions Check T or F to indicate whether a statement is True or False T F s s T F s s T F s s
1. Identifying potential gaps allows management action to reduce the risk of a gap. 2. Filling physical gaps without filling the human gap at the same time may sometimes be the only responsible course of action. 3. Gap identification sheets covering whole sectors are more useful than those indicating implementing partners against specific tasks. 4. Timeline gap identification sheets allow the vital time factor to be considered in emergency planning. 5. Sensitivity analysis tests the political sensitivity of contingency plans.
T F s s T F s s
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. Which of the following is not an example of filling a physical gap without filling the associated human gap. A s B s C s D s Flying-in trucks without anyone to operate them Preparing a contingency plan without a consultative process Dispatching non-food-items to a site without having anyone to receive or distribute them. Flying in vaccines without a partner to run the cold chain
7. Filling physical gaps without filling the human gap may: A s B s C s D s Result in a waste of resources Be essential because of the long lead time to obtain physical resources Be done when the human requirement is trivial All of the above
8. Timeline gap identification sheets A s B s C s D s Are similar to traditional gap identification sheets Present data in terms of dispatch from the main stores Use the same timeline as the scenario, needs projection, and resource assessment All of the above
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9. You can get realistic time estimates by: A s B s C s D s Using the most optimistic estimate from partners Using the most optimistic estimate from the group Using the most optimistic estimate from both of the above None of the above
10. Timeline gap identification sheets are A s B s C s D s Excellent for planning, but not much use on the ground A key tool in contingency planning For co-ordination only, with no practical use Unable to take human resource constraints into account
In an emergency operation it is planned to airlift trucks to meet the trucking needs of an operation. The timetable for availability, including the human constraint of airlift (from stock) clearing, registration and delivery to the site is as follows:
Transport
Item Day
Non-food logistics
UNHCR NGO 1 NGO 2 Total Comments
Trucks, 4x4 On Site 1 7 14 21 28 60
2 10 10 20 30 22
6 2 6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 14 18 28 38 30
Initial fleet size NGO working in area Local hire NGO 1other commitments Arrival of airlifted trucks Further airlift batch Release of hire trucks
It is planned that NGO 1 will manage the whole fleet, recruit drivers etc. The projected need for 4x4 (i.e. all-wheel drive) 7 ton trucks is 40 for the first two months dropping to 28 on day 60. Draw up a gap identification sheet allowing for the human constraint of managing the truck fleet assuming that:
o NGO 1, which is to manage the UNHCR trucks, can only manage 20 trucks now o It will be day 28 before this capacity will increase to 30 trucks o NGO 1 will be able to manage 40 trucks by day 60
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Transport
Item Day
Non-food logistics
Need UNHCR NGO 1 NGO 2 Supply Management Capacity Constr. Supply Gap
Trucks, 4x4 On Site 1 7 14 21 28 60
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T T F T F
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
B D A, C D B
Exercise Answer The timeline gap identification sheet is similar to that given in the lesson for plastic sheeting. Here the additional human constraint is the management capacity of NGO 1.
Transport
Item Day
Non-food logistics
Need UNHCR NGO 1 NGO 2 Supply Management Capacity Constr. Supply Gap
Trucks, 4x4 On Site 1 7 14 21 28 60 40 40 40 40 40 30
2 10 10 20 30 22
6 2 6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 14 18 28 38 30 20 20 20 20 30 40 2 14 18 20 30 38 26 22 20 10
This example is typical of real emergencies. Although resources may be flown in immediately, it will be some time before there are human resources to use them effectively. In this case the continuing gap in transport will be a problem. Perhaps NGO 2 could be asked to manage part of the fleet (on separate tasks or in a different camp and more trucks could be hired). Perhaps the projected truck needs are exaggerated and that part of the plan needs revision.
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Refugees from Rwanda awaiting distribution of highprotein biscuits. Zaire, UNHCR photo, J. Davies, 1994
Process and Plan Example
UNHCR
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PRETEST Process and Plan Example
T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s
1. The multi-sectoral teams drive the contingency planning process. 2. Sector objectives and standards in a contingency plan should be measurable. 3. The core team develops a consolidated budget based on budgets prepared by each sector team. 4. The working group is responsible for setting the overall objectives and standards for the contingency plan. 5. The UNHCR Representatives first step when initiating the contingency planning process is to brief headquarters. 6. The position of contingency planning secretariat is a full-time position for one person. 7. Contingency planning must stop if the government does not want to take part. 8. Even a five-year-old contingency plan may contain some useful information. 9. The roundtable should agree on the general scenario, outline the general objectives, agree on the structure and timetable and establish the working group. 10. The roundtable should conduct an annual review of the contingency plan to examine policy issues. 11. Even if there are outstanding points at the final roundtable review, the roundtable can still approve the plan. 12. The process manager is responsible for assigning people to the sector teams. 13. The working group is responsible for developing the detailed scenario, establishing the sector teams, reviewing and integrating the sector plans and reviewing the final contingency plan. 14. The working group establishes the time line that is to be used for the scenario, needs projection, resource assessment, and gap identification.
T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s
T F s s
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T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s
16. Critical sector scenarios are contained only in the sectoral scenarios. 17. Only some of the data that are collected are published in the final plan. 18. Sector teams generate more detailed scenarios specifically for their sectors. 19. The core team is responsible for ensuring the internal consistency of the plan. 20. Contingency plan budgets should be as detailed as possible.
ni
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Pre-test Answers
6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
F T F F T F
13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8.
T F T T
20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15.
F T T T F F
Pre-test Answers
7.
14.
te Ch
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Starting the Proccess and Working with the Roundtable
7
ap
s How to set up the contingency

planning process
s How to conduct the roundtable s How to resolve practical issues

involved in the roundtable process
s How to deal with some of the

practical issues that can arise when setting up the process
Introduction
Like any other complex activity, the contingency planning process needs to be carefully managed if it is to work well. In this regard, management refers to the control of resources for their effective use within the process rather than managing the process to reach a predetermined conclusion. This chapter and those that follow look at one way in which the process can be managed and how the process is reflected in the contingency plan. In order to illustrate these links we will follow the development of a contingency plan in an imaginary country, Ruritania, which is threatened by a new refugee influx. The approach presented here is only one possible approach. This model has been chosen as it illustrates many aspects of contingency planning and a fairly sophisticated structure for analysis. Many simpler models are available and may be appropriate in a variety of situations; however, elements of the overall process and structure depicted here should be useful in almost any situation.
The Scenario
Ruritania is a small developing country that borders the sea as well as the countries of Northland, Southland and Eastland. The UNHCR programme in Ruritania deals with a fluctuating population of 10,000 to 20,000 refugees from Eastland. The refugees first arrived seven years ago and the population has fluctuated in response to a civil war in mid-western Eastland. The refugees are in three camps along the main road from Alpha (the Ruritanian Capital) to Golf, a border town with Eastland.
NORTHLAND
EASTLAND RURITANIA
Alpha
Main
Road
Echo Foxtrot Golf 3 camps
SOUTHLAND
Ruritania and Adjoining Countries
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Early Warning
The new UNHCR Representative in Ruritania is becoming concerned about reports of growing tensions in Northland as elections approach in two months. A leader from Kilo in the Southwest of the country is suggesting that the mineral rich southwest should secede if he does not win the election. Analysts believe that the southwest party is unlikely to capture more than 30% of the vote. They predict that the winner will be a former military governor from Oscar. The Northland army is mostly drawn from the cattle rearing east of the country and is very unsympathetic to the agricultural people of the southwest. There have already been a number of attacks on people from the southwest in Oscar, the capital of Northlands Eastern Province. Communal tension is reported to be growing. The situation is complicated as the people from the southwest of Northland are from the same ethnic group as those from the far North of Ruritania. The Ruritanian government wishes to remain on good terms with the Northland Government. The Ruritanian President and the former Governor from Oscar are personal friends, having fought together against the former colonial government in Southland. Although the Ruritanian Government will probably accept the refugees from Northland, they would not want to be seen as encouraging the secessionist movement. The UNHCR Representative finds that there is no current contingency planning process and that the only contingency plan that exists, apart from one for staff evacuation, is a plan drawn up five years ago for a massive influx from Southland. Much of the plan focuses on special needs of the nomadic herders of the Tango area of Southland taking refuge in the desert in the south of Ruritania. A consultant sent from headquarters drew up the plan with limited local consultation. No review or revision has taken place in the last five years.
Should the Representative use this plan or start a new process?
The plan is out of date and is for a different part of the country. Although some of the more general information may still be useful, most of the specific details would be of little use for a refugee influx in the unique conditions in the north of Ruritania. The Representative decides to initiate the contingency planning process immediately knowing it will be at least a month before an approved plan is finalised. This is fairly typical of contingency planning for a moderate level of threat.
Initiation
The UNHCR Representative, as the initiator of the planning process, draws up a checklist for her first actions. Her first step is to brief headquarters and to make sure that she will not be duplicating anything that might be undertaken regionally. The Representative then calls a meeting of senior staff. After some discussion all agree that contingency planning for a possible influx from Northland is a priority. The Representative then nominates the senior programme officer as the contingency planning focal point. He has just completed a distance learning course on contingency planning.
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In connection with nominating the process manager or focal point, what else should the Representative do?
The Representative should reallocate the focal points previous duties among his colleagues. If there is going to be rapid progress in contingency planning, the focal point will need to focus exclusively on the process. She gives the focal point the go ahead to start work internally on the plan, but tells him not to invite outside agencies until the main partners are on board. She immediately requests a meeting with the Minister of Home Affairs who is responsible for refugee matters in Ruritania.
Heads of Agencies
The Representative takes the focal point to the Heads of Agencies meeting the following day. She informs the group that UNHCR is planning to carry out a contingency planning exercise for a possible refugee influx. She receives their support and also seeks their advice on the likely government reaction. Opinion is divided among the Heads of Agencies, but one long-serving Ambassador from a large donor country believes that the Government will be open to the process, if the approach is sensitive. The contingency plan should not be seen as something that might encourage refugee flows from Northland, or as expressing any lack of confidence in the Government of Northland.
The Government
At the meeting with the Minister, the Minister rejects any suggestion that refugee flows from Northland are likely. While he accepts the concept and validity of contingency planning, he cannot agree that it would be appropriate in this specific case. He explains that the Ruritanian Government could not participate in contingency planning for this case at this time.
What can be done now?
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The Representative believes that the situation is so critical in Northland that waiting is out of the question. She then decides on donor intervention as her first choice. She approaches the long-serving donor country ambassador who had earlier advised her to ask him to approach the Government. He obtains Government agreement to participate in general contingency planning for a refugee influx anywhere in Ruritania, but not for planning specifically for an influx from Northland. He also tells her that part of the reason for the acceptance is that the Government is worried about the situation in Northland.
NGOs
The Representative now telephones the chair of the NGO forum, asking him to inform the NGOs that UNHCR is initiating a contingency planning exercise. She explains that the contingency planning will be for any refugee influx into Ruritania and explains the sensitivities involved. She also explains that no additional resources will be made available to partners at this stage.
Why do you think the Representative contacted the NGO forum chair instead of just inviting the key NGOs?
The Representatives reasons for doing this included: o Controlling possible rumours about the contingency planning process o Building relationships with partner NGOs Rumour control is very important when contingency planning is politically sensitive. Rumours flourish in the absence of information; providing accurate information in advance is the best way of controlling them. Letting the NGOs know in advance what the contingency planning process is about and what the constraints are will avoid wild rumours or speculation that could derail Government involvement in the process.
Start-up Checklist
Brief headquarters Appoint process manager Invite heads of agencies Invite Government Invite key NGOs
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Managing the Process

As soon as he was given the contingency planning assignment, the focal point drew up his checklist of tasks as shown below. Only the first two tasks could be carried out while waiting for approval from the Representative to contact outside agencies. The process manager also put dates against the completion of each task so that he could monitor his own performance against his plan.
Process Management Checklist
Establish secretariat Identify roundtable partners Issue invitations and follow up Prepare for roundtable meeting
Establish the Secretariat

How big should the secretariat be?
The answer depends on the circumstances. The secretariat can range from one part-time support staff to several full-time staff. One staff member working part-time may be appropriate once the initial plan is prepared and pending revisions. In Ruritania, the process manager requested that one full-time support staff member and a national Assistant Field Officer be assigned full time for the duration of the initial planning. The Representative agreed. After getting a space allocated for the contingency planning team, and sorting out desks and equipment, the secretariat was established.
Identify Roundtable Participants

The process manager then held a meeting with the Representative and fellow senior staff to identify the partners that should be invited to the consultative roundtable. The roundtable functions as the owner of the contingency planning process. Ownership means that participants feel that they are able to influence the process. Multi-agency ownership means that the humanitarian community will support the process. It also means that all parties will feel a greater commitment to the outcome of the process.
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The roundtable establishes the ground rules for the contingency planning process. It sets the limits and boundaries for the process. The roundtable should: o Reach agreement on the planning scenario in very general terms o Outline general objectives and policy o Agree on the process structure o Agree on the process timetable o Establish the working group The effectiveness of the roundtable will depend both on good facilitation and a great deal of preparatory work. Large groups can easily get bogged down in details if they have to start from scratch. They are much more effective at working from a developed document.
How big should the roundtable group be?
The size of the roundtable group is a compromise. The bigger the roundtable, the more unwieldy it is and the slower it is to reach any conclusion. The smaller it is, the bigger the risk that important viewpoints may be missed, or that some partners will feel excluded. The number of participants might be between 20 and 40 for a national level contingency plan. In Ruritania, the meeting designated 36 invitees composed of Government, Donor Representatives, UNHCR, other UN, and NGO staff. Of these, about half were expected to participate in the working group. The meeting also decided that as it was already two weeks since the initial decision to start planning, the working group should begin work immediately after the roundtable meeting. A draft agenda for the roundtable was prepared.
Invitations
The invitations were sent out one week before the roundtable meeting, with an apology for the short notice. The invitations included a list of the invitees and a request that participants indicate other potential participants whom they felt were missing from the list. Three additional participants were nominated by the invitees. Invitations to the participants were followed by calls from the Representative or the Secretariat to confirm attendance.
Preparing for the Roundtable

There are two types of preparatory work for the roundtable. The first is the physical preparation, booking a meeting venue, preparing the agenda, arranging meals, etc. The second is preparing briefing packs and basic documents. The focal point delegated the first part of this work to the support staff and started to prepare the other documents with the help of the Assistant Field Officer.
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Conducting the Roundtable

Because many of the roundtable participants are busy, they will probably only be able to devote half a day to the initial meeting. This is typical for the initial roundtable meeting. One way to structure the morning is to have an introduction, and then to split into three groups. The first group considers the planning scenario in very general terms, the second the general objectives, and the third group works on the process structure and timetable as well as on establishing the working group. Each small group works for an hour on their topic(s) and prepares a draft for the plenary session to consider. This will not work in a single morning session if the groups are starting from scratch. They must have drafts which they can edit. Group chairs and reporters need to be carefully selected, and time must be firmly controlled. A final plenary session is usually needed to ensure that there is general agreement with what the drafting teams are proposing for each area. In Ruritania, the welcome and introduction session was used to briefly explain the contingency planning process and for both the UN and the Government to put forward their views. During the introduction, the UNHCR Representative was careful to stress that the contingency process was: o internal to the agencies concerned o not a political comment, but only intended to have the humanitarian community prepared should the worst happen o owned by the entire group and that UNHCRs role was one of facilitation rather than direction. Roundtable Agenda 09:30 10:30 11:00 12:00 13:30 Welcome and introduction Coffee Group Discussions Plenary Close and lunch
The text of the Representatives disclaimer was circulated for discussion and a slightly amended disclaimer was agreed upon. The disclaimer appears on the cover of the plan as shown below.
Cover disclaimer This document is an internal working document of the agencies that are members of the refugee emergency contingency planning roundtable in Ruritania. It is confidential and should not be shared with any persons outside these agencies. The scenarios used have been chosen in good faith to provide an illustrative framework for planning purposes. The scenarios do not imply any judgement or comment on political developments in Ruritania or elsewhere. They do not reflect any political stance of the participants in the planning process. The UNHCR Office in Alpha, Ruritania acts as the facilitator of the roundtable meetings and provides the secretariat for the drafting of the plan.
What is the function of the disclaimer?
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The disclaimer has a number of uses: o It serves to remind users that the document is confidential. Any distortions of the effort by the media would not be helpful. o It tries to avoid possible sensitive issues raised by the planning scenarios. o It emphasises that UNHCR is the facilitator rather than the owner of the process.
The General Scenario

The planning scenario refers to the general scenario for which the plan is being prepared and should be reflected in the plans title. The working group refines the general scenario after the roundtable defines the scenario and its limits. For example, the general scenario might be a refugee influx from Country X or even a refugee influx into Ruritania and the detailed scenario might be 50,000 refugees from Country X in June, crossing at border point Y.
What is the utility of a general scenario?
The general scenario: o Defines the limits of the scenarios which the working group can develop o Allows the roundtable to discuss the scenario without getting bogged down in detail o Emphasises that the plan is useful for emergency response to any similar situation Why is it important that the roundtable define the limits of the scenarios?
The roundtable sets the agreed political limits for the working groups plans. Normally, those representing the Government and others at the roundtable will be more senior than the staff assigned to the working group. It is important that politically sensitive issues, such as the limits of the scenarios and general policy, should be decided in the roundtable. In Ruritania, it was decided by the roundtable that, given the existence of the five year old plan for an influx into the south of the country, the working group should concentrate on a possible influx into the north of Ruritania. The Governments agreement to this focus on the North was a pleasant surprise. The Representative attributed this to increasing concern about the situation in Northland.
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Setting General Policy and Objectives

The general policy is composed of general principles that the working group is to follow in drawing up the plan and may include statements on the need for protection, basic needs, or the need for assistance to the local community. While setting policy objectives, the various agendas of the different players may arise. In Ruritania, there was a great deal of discussion on the role of local NGOs in assistance to the local community. Initial demands from the Government and local NGO representatives that the policy be to provide Ruritanian NGOs with resources was eventually settled as provide with an opportunity. The agreed upon objectives are shown below. Overall Policy Objectives In the event of a refugee influx into Northern Ruritania, the Government, UNHCR, other UN agencies, and the NGOs, seek, through a carefully planned, co-ordinated and transparent approach, to: o Meet the basic humanitarian needs of the refugee population for food, shelter, water, sanitation and health care o Ensure treatment of refugees in accordance with international conventions and the laws of Ruritania, including protection and minimum standards of treatment (such as freedom and security) o Minimise stress and suffering among the refugee community through effective community based programmes, and through respecting their customs and traditions o Source as large a proportion as possible of the assistance to be delivered from within Ruritania rather than importing it o Ensure burden sharing by the international community in meeting the needs of the refugees o Take full account of the needs of the local community affected by the refugee influx o Provide Ruritanian NGOs with the opportunity to participate fully to meet the needs of the refugees o Use the resources available to meet the needs of refugees in such a way as to achieve the greatest long-term benefit to Ruritania o Closely monitor the assistance programme to ensure that resources are used in an appropriate and effective way o Work towards the early voluntary repatriation of the refugees to their place of origin o Minimise the risk of environmental degradation and repair it when it occurs Although many of these points may seem to be more political than directly related to the plan, they create a greater sense of ownership. They also establish the objectives which the working group is expected to meet.
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Agreeing on the Structure

The structure of the agreed upon contingency planning process in Ruritania is shown below. One question that arose was about the number of sectoral teams. As the working group was expected to have only 15 to 20 members, how could they possibly deal with all the different sectors? The Representative replied that the working group and sector teams were free to engage others to assist with the planning work. Despite this suggestion, some sectoral teams would still have more than one sector to cover.
The Structure of the Contingency Planning Process Roundtable

Setting Policy and Objectives
Working Group
Detailed Scenarios and Co-ordinating Sector Plans
Core Team
Managing Process, Editing Draft Plans
Secretariat
Supporting Process
Sector Team
Setting Policy and Objectives
Sector Team
Sector Team
Sector Team
Sector Team
Sector Team
What are the advantages and disadvantages of larger sectoral teams and coverage of more than one sector by a team?
Advantages
Disadvantages
+ _____________________________ + _____________________________ + _____________________________ + _____________________________ + _____________________________
_____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________
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The advantages include:
+ Reducing the number of sector teams, making the process easier to manage. + Increasing the size of the individual sector teams leading to better discussion and a broader perspective within the sector team. + Integrating the planning of complementary sectors (e.g. water and sanitation) instead of the working group having to pull them together afterwards. + Allowing work to be balanced among the teams so that each has an appropriate workload. The disadvantages include: Less attention given to some sectors. Less detailed work on each sector as the sectors are aggregated. Balancing workload among team members often conflicts with working on complementary sectors which often are either both crucial (such as water and sanitation) or both relatively unimportant in the initial stage (such as crop production and livestock/animal husbandry). Some sectors may share common assumptions that are not explicitly stated in the working group scenario. When they are hidden in sector plans, shared assumptions make revision and editing much more difficult. Any assumptions that apply to more than one sector should be explicitly stated in the working groups scenario. It may take longer to develop the plan with larger sector teams as more issues need to be discussed by everyone.
Agreeing on the Timetable

In Ruritania, the draft of the timetable shown below was agreed upon with only a brief discussion. The UNHCR Representative clarified that UNHCR would act as secretariat and facilitate and initiate review meetings. These clarifications were added to the timetable presented in the plan. Contingency Planning Timetable Initial preparation or major revision
Day 1 am Day 1 pm Day 2 am Day 2 pm Day 4 Day 6 & 8 Day 10 Day 12 Day 14 Day 19 Day 20 Day 21 Roundtable meeting: setting objectives and scenario Working group meeting: introduction Working group meeting: developing detailed scenario First sectoral team meetings Working group (WG) meeting to review progress (scenario and integration) WG meeting to review sector team drafts (quality and integration) Final WG review of sector team drafts (quality and integration) Consolidated draft presented to working group for review Draft presented to roundtable for review/approval Deadline for review comments Roundtable meets to approve plan Approved plan distributed
Regular Review (i.e. if no further increases in levels of early warning indicators) Monthly Core team meeting to review details or need for major revision Quarterly Annually As required Working team review meeting to review scenario and resource details Roundtable review meeting to review plan objectives Hold review meetings
Alert Review (called by UNHCR and the Government when early warning indicator levels increase sharply)
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Establishing the Working Group

The final item was the establishment of the working group. There were some concerns about working group membership. These were resolved when the Representative made it clear that any roundtable participant who wished could join the working group even though they had not been specifically invited. She explained that the working group would deal with the plan detail rather than the big issues which the roundtable would deal with. She explained that she herself would not attend the working group, but that the Focal Point would represent her there. It was agreed that, as the roundtable had already run over the scheduled time, the roundtable would delegate the selection of sector team leaders to the working group.
Other Functions of the Roundtable

Apart from the initial meeting to formally initiate the contingency planning process, other roundtable tasks are reviewing and approving the initial draft, and reviewing the plan on an annual basis.
Reviewing and Approving

The timetable presented for the process foresees that the roundtable will meet after 14 days to review the contingency plan and after 21 days to review and approve it. It is expected that any major points will usually be raised in the first of these meetings with only minor points for the second one.
Why have two review meetings?
Any points that are raised in the first review meeting will need to be dealt with before the plan can be approved by the roundtable. The second review meeting will allow readers more time to make suggestions, and therefore will allow a wider range of comments to be made. Hopefully, most of the points will be relatively minor, as most major issues should have been resolved either during the working group review meeting or in the first roundtable review meeting. If major points are raised at the second roundtable review meeting, the roundtable has the following options: o Approve the plan as it stands. o Approve the plan as it stands, subject to the issue in question being resolved in the manner agreed at the review meeting. o Approve the plan as it stands, but note that the issue should be dealt with at the next working group review (after 3 months). o Postpone approval until the issues have been resolved and the roundtable can meet again to review and approve.
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Obviously the last of these is the least attractive as it delays the approval of the initial draft. The second review meeting of the roundtable in Ruritania had two major issues to deal with: o One of the international NGOs that was foreseen as a supplier of logistics services had decided to close its logistics programme in Ruritania and concentrate on community development. The roundtable approved the plan subject to the core team identifying another possible partner for this part of the logistics role. o The Ministry of Transport complained that the plan made no mention of the new road under construction between the towns of Echo and Golf. In two months after the last major bridge was completed, the road would be usable, even though it would not be completely finished for another 18 months. This new road meant that the port and airport at Alpha could then be used for supplying Echo and Foxtrot. After some debate, the roundtable agreed with the UNHCR Representatives proposal. She proposed that as the road was not yet usable, and it would mean major changes in a number of sectors, that this change could be left for the next working group review meeting in three months.
Reviewing the Plan

While the working group will meet every three months to review the contingency plan, the roundtable will meet only once a year. This is a fairly typical meeting schedule. Details of a plan may change quickly, but objectives and underlying policies change much more slowly. If there should be a major change, the roundtable can meet again.
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Summary
Contingency planning takes time. Staff can only devote enough time to contingency planning if they are relieved of their other responsibilities. The roundtable should agree on the general scenario, outline the general objectives, agree on the structure and timetable and establish the working group. The general scenario selected by the roundtable is reflected in the contingency plans title. The roundtable sets the political limits for the working group. The success of roundtable meetings depends on the preparation going into them and how well they are managed and facilitated. The roundtable helps to promote ownership of the contingency planning process by the wider humanitarian community. Roundtable size will vary with the size of the country, the number of operational agencies present and other factors. The important factor to consider is involvement of the key planning partners, without over-burdening the process. Having a smaller number of sectoral teams has both advantages and disadvantages. Annual reviews by the roundtable look at policy issues; quarterly reviews by the working group examine the details.
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Chapter 7 Self-Assessment Questions Check T or F to indicate whether a statement is True or False T F s s
1. Any competent, experienced, and effective process manager should be able to do contingency planning on top of their other responsibilities and get quick results. 2. Contingency planning must stop if the Government does not want to take part 3. The structure for the contingency planning process and the timetable for revision will form part of the chapter on maintenance in the contingency plan. 4. The roundtable ensures that everyone recognises UNHCRs ownership of the contingency planning process. 5. The contingency plan should be released to the press as soon as it is prepared to show that agencies are ready to deal with any emergency.
T F s s T F s s
T F s s T F s s
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. Rumours are best controlled by A s B s C s D s 7. Providing accurate information before rumours start Complete secrecy Forbidding coffee-breaks None of the above
The roundtable group size should be A s B s C s D s As big as possible to include everyone As small as possible to be more effective A compromise between the above Smaller than the Working Group
8. The initial tasks for the contingency planning process manager include A s B s C s D s Establish secretariat Identify roundtable partners Issue invitations and follow up All of the above
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9. The roundtable tasks include: A s B s C s D s Agreeing on the planning scenario in general terms Outlining general objectives and policy Agreeing on the process structure and timetable All of the above
10. The advantages of having sector teams cover more than one sector include A s B s C s D s Integrated planning of complementary sectors More detailed work on each sector Longer development times for plans Smaller sector teams
Consider again the sector list given on page 50. There are 16 sectors. How would you divide these tasks between six sector teams? (Check the columns corresponding to the team number for each sector which you want that sector team to cover.)
Sector Team Number

UNHCR Budget Sector 1 2 3 4 5 6
Food Transport/Logistics Domestic Needs/Household Support Water Supply Sanitation Health/Nutrition Shelter/Other Infrastructure Community Services Education Crop Production Livestock/Animal Husbandry Fisheries Forestry Income Generation Legal Assistance/Protection Agency Operational Support
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F F T F F
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
A C D D A
Exercise Answer
Sector Team Number

UNHCR Budget Sector 1 2 3 4 5 6
Food Transport/Logistics Domestic Needs/Household Support Water Supply Sanitation Health/Nutrition Shelter/Other Infrastructure Community Services Education Crop Production Livestock/Animal Husbandry Fisheries Forestry Income Generation Legal Assistance/Protection Agency Operational Support
Although actual capacities of the sectoral teams (and team members) will dictate the way that the tasks are divided among the teams, the choices made above in the proposed answer attempt to group similar or related sectors together and to divide the workload more or less evenly among the teams. Note that Food, for example, is the only sector assigned to team 1, since that part of the planning is so large. You may have chosen a different allocation, but whatever allocation you chose, all of them have their own problems as well as strengths. In this allocation, for example, three of the sectors that also require a great amount of work (Health, Water, and Sanitation) are all lumped together. The problem with splitting them up is that they are intimately linked together.
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The Working Group and Sector Teams
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ap
s The functions of the working

group and sector teams
s Outputs to expect from the

sector teams
s How to organise and manage

the working group and sector teams
s How to review sector plans for

quality and integration
Functions of the Working Group

The working group is the engine of the contingency planning process. The working group and the sectoral teams handle the details after the roundtable has dealt with the political issues. The functions of the working group are to: Develop the detailed scenario Set up the sector teams Review the sectoral plans and co-ordinate their synthesis into the overall contingency plan Review the final draft and undertake regular reviews This is quite a large task, and the working group has little time to execute it. Like any other group, the performance of the working group can be improved through training. The training required need not be a one or two week workshop, but rather a training session to ensure that all of the working group members have a common understanding of the task in hand. In Ruritania, three hours of the roundtable session were allocated for training. The training session covered five topics: Contingency planningAn overview of the process so that participants understand the basic philosophy and their part in the overall process. Clarification of both the structure and the timetable. ScenariosUses and limits of scenarios, thresholds, and levels of preparedness. UNHCR budget sectorsFor partners who were unfamiliar with UNHCRs budget sectors so that all would be aware which activity would fit in which sector. Overview of tools for planning, needs projection, resource assessment and gap identification Use of timeline gap identification tables, layout of the contingency plan, standard format for resource assessments and activity plans.
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How would you organise this training session?
The working group members will have many years of experience, so this should be tapped to the degree possible. One approach would be to start with a general introduction and then invite group members to give examples to illustrate the points raised. In Ruritania, the training session ended with the announcement that the following days scenario planning would begin with a nominal group exercise session so that people would have time to consider their contributions beforehand. Each of the participants would be expected to give a short presentation (no more than three minutes) on their ideas regarding the scenario.
Develop the Initial Scenario

In Ruritania, the nominal group session placed many ideas on the table which were then discussed by the group. The problem with developing the detailed scenario was the concern about political sensitivity over the situation in Northland. Eventually it was agreed that the scenario would refer to arrivals from Northland for planning purposes only without specifying the reason why they might flee. The scenario development process should take into consideration all of the following: Scenario Chapter Checklist
Indicators Timeline Entry points Refugee profile In-country scenario

Agreement was quickly reached on the thresholds for implementing the plan. The working group agreed that, in addition to physically counting arrivals, a joint analysis of the situation by the Government and UNHCR could also be used to start implementation. This was felt to be particularly important because of concerns about delays in reporting the number arriving along the coast by boat. The agreed upon scenario with indicators was included in the contingency plan shown below. Planning Scenario
The following is the scenario on which planning has been based. It has been assumed that refugees will arrive in northern Ruritania by boat and by crossing the land borders from Northland. This plan will take effect when any one of the following applies: o o o o 1,000 refugees arrive in northern Ruritania 500 refugees arrive over any seven day period 300 refugees enter northern Ruritania in one day UNHCR and the Government of Ruritania determine that the arrival of a large number of refugees is imminent
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Once the threshold for action was set, the next issue to consider regarding the scenario was to establish the timeline and the expected refugee flows. While some NGO participants favoured regarding the whole population of southwest Northland (500,000) as potential refugees, the Government representatives in the working group felt that this was too cynical. It was eventually agreed that it was far more likely that only about 10% were likely to flee to Ruritania. This number was chosen as the planning figure and represented the number of refugee individuals rather than families because it was likely that many families would become separated. Contingency Plan Scenario: Timeline Day 1 2 4 7 10 14 21 28 60 90 Refugees 2,000 3,000 5,000 15,000 30,000 45,000 48,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 Only occasional arrivals after 4 weeks Some spontaneous repatriation because of ease of travel by sea Continuing slow repatriation initially The start of spontaneous camps Peak rate of crossing will be 5,000 per day Comments Mostly accommodated with relatives in Ruritania
Another issue regarding the timeline was the rate at which repatriation was likely to begin, with Government representatives favouring optimistic figures and NGOs and UNHCR arguing for a more conservative approach. It was agreed that although most of the refugees might return home within two months, it was better to plan for a slower return so that resources would be in place in Ruritania. Contingency Plan Scenario: Entry Points
About half the refugees are expected to cross the river forming the land border between Northland and Ruritania at traditional crossing points along its length. The remainder will travel by sea on traditional fishing and trading vessels used along the coast. Most of these are expected to arrive along the coast from Delta to the border with only a small number going further south.
The refugee profile, as shown below, was agreed quickly. Contingency Plan Scenario: Refugee Profile
The refugees are likely to be Muslim farmers and fishermen with strong representation of middle class and community leaders. Average family size is expected to be five. Given the strong tradition of outwork in the southwest (with many men working in the mines near the capital) women are likely to form a large part of the refugee group
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The in-country scenario took up most of the discussion. It was decided that the fine details for the in-country scenario, such as the exact location of camps etc., would be developed during sectoral planning. Contingency Plan Scenario: In-Country Scenario
Initially, most of those arriving will stay with relatives in Ruritania. After about a week, the first spontaneous refugee camps will appear near existing villages inland or on the coast as those with weaker family connections arrive. The middle class and young men will likely try to travel to Foxtrot, Echo or Delta to settle there. Temporary settlement sites will be established about 20 km from Foxtrot (two camps for 10,000 each), and another three of the same size about 30 km up the coast from Delta. Local authorities will be informed so that they can direct refugees there. Assistance will only be provided to registered refugees staying at the settlement sites.
The discussion in the working group will later refine some of the scenario points but the overall layout will stay the same.
Set up the Sector Teams

The twenty-four participants in the working group agreed to split into six sectoral teams plus the core team. One common problem is that some sectors may be more popular than others among the planning group. Many participants may want to work in the same sectors. How would you deal with the popular sector problem?
Contingency planning can only work if the sector team members are interested in, and have some knowledge of, the sector plans on which they are working. Approaches you can take include: o Set a maximum size for each sector team and let the working group members sort themselves out. o Appoint sector team leaders and let them pick the team they wish to work with. o As the focal point or process manager, assign members to the sector teams. If the working group members all know each other, the first approach is workable. The second process needs to be handled in a sensitive manner. The last approach may be required if there are many who do not know each other. In Ruritania, the working groups participants were asked to select the sectors in which they were interested or could make a contribution. Leaders of the sector teams were then chosen from the group through nomination by the focal point. The focal point and the team leaders selected the teams based on their knowledge of the members and the preferences which people had expressed. The first sector team meetings began on the afternoon of the second day. Each team was free to arrange its own agenda to complete the sectoral draft by day six. 114
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Working Group Review Meetings

One of the key tasks of the working group is to review the sectoral plans. Four reviews were planned during the drafting of the initial contingency plan draft: o Initial progress and integration meeting after two days o Sectoral draft quality and integration review twice during the next four days o Final quality and integration review of sector drafts two days later o Review of consolidated plan after another four days In addition, the working group meets to discuss any major changes, if needed, after review by the roundtable. The initial review meeting focuses on questions about the scenario and the integration of different sectors in the plan. The first review meeting opens with reports by each of the sector teams on progress made and problems encountered. Typically, sectoral teams will propose or seek clarification on scenario detail, as well as information from other sector planning teams with whom they need to integrate. For example, the sector team planning for the Health/Nutrition sector may want to check with the Food and Logistics/Transport sectors on the availability of supplementary foodstuff and the vehicles to transport it. Many of the questions raised will have no single correct answer and will be put to the working group for decision. In this way the group builds up the planning scenario detail by working from practical points. Quality and integration reviews are reviews of the individual sectoral plans. The quality component is meant to ensure that the sectoral plans are of an adequate quality and that they adhere to the agreed scenario. The integration component is intended to ensure that all of the sectors fit together and have complementary assumptions. Quality and integration reviews need to be carefully managed if they are to work. The review takes place during the second meeting rather than the first to allow the sector teams more time to work together. In the review, each sector team is asked to briefly present their draft plan to the whole working group. Other members of the working group are asked to comment on the sector plan with: o Constructive suggestions for improvement. The fact that each of the sector teams knows that its own work will be subject to the same scrutiny tends to control negative comments. When it does not, the process manager or focal point must intervene to remind commentators that they should only make constructive suggestions. o Comments on any assumptions that conflict with assumptions made by another sector team. For example, when the Water sector assumes that existing trucks will be available for fitting with water tanks, and the Logistics/Transport Sector assumes that all trucks will be available for transporting non-food-items. The core team should keep a careful record of the commentators and the comments they make. After all the sectors have been reviewed, the sector teams are given an opportunity to discuss the comments that have been made about the quality of their plans and integration with other sectors. They then have an opportunity to respond, accepting the comments in whole or in part, or rejecting them. The commentators are asked if they accept the response. If they do not, the issue is referred to the whole working group for a decision. The working group meets again to review the consolidated draft after the core team has grouped the various sector plans and added the chapter on co-ordination and the total budget. Some aspects of the sectoral plans may have been changed because of unresolved integration issues. There may be other outstanding issues, such as the need to rework sectors to reduce the overall budget. After all these issues have been dealt with, the working group is asked to approve the presentation of the draft plan to the roundtable.
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The working group will not meet again unless the roundtable calls for major revisions to the plan. If this is the case, the working group will decide the best way to deal with the revisions: whether to refer them to sector teams or whether the core team should prepare the revision and present it. The working group will also meet every three months to regularly review the contingency plan. These meetings are intended to: o Maintain the working group and sector teams. Due to staff changes, some members of the sector teams may no longer be available. One of the tasks of the working group is to enlist new members to replace those who have left in order to maintain the sector teams. o Allow the working group to discuss the scenario o Allow each of the sector teams to briefly review its sector plan (considering recent developments in the sector and any suggested scenario changes) before reporting back to the working group If the scenario needs to be changed, the working group must decide whether the change is so great as to justify calling a new roundtable meeting, or whether the plan can be changed within the present general scenario. Similarly, the working group will decide whether any changes in the level of detail required are so extensive that the revised plan should be submitted to the roundtable.
Functions of the Sector Teams

The sector teams work on one or more sectors to develop the sector plans that are then co-ordinated into the overall contingency plan. The sector teams build on the foundation of the detailed scenario to carry out the following tasks for the sectors they are responsible for: Specification of sectoral sub-objectives and standards Specific sectoral scenarios Needs projection Resource assessment Gap identification Recommended co-ordination mechanism for sectors Task allocation and recommended actions for each sector
Specific Sectoral Sub-Objectives and Standards

The sectoral teams set the objectives and standards for each sectoral plan. As with the scenarios the sectoral objectives are additions to the general objectives outlined by the roundtable. For example, if a general objective is to avoid environmental degradation, this objective will not be repeated in the sanitation sector plan. The standards set will be those generally appropriate for the likely response such as rural refugee camps, accommodation centres in urban buildings, settlement with local families, etc. While the objectives set by the roundtable will inevitably be broad and somewhat vague, the sectoral objectives and standards should be much more specific. These should be SMART: that is, Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Time-bound. In an emergency context the requirement for time-bound objectives is one of the most important conditions. The timeline, the objectives, and the standards should reflect the same constraints.
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Sanitation: Objectives and Standards
Sectoral Objectives
To control the risk of disease through effective and culturally appropriate sanitation measures. To limit demand for curative medical care through effective sanitation. Specifically to limit diarrhoea disease incidence to less than 5% within two months of arrival. To establish an effective public health education presence in the first week with a full network within two months of arrival.
Standards
Initially, one latrine per 50 persons (plus latrines for health centres, markets, etc.) One latrine per family within 4 months. One environmental health technician per 10,000 people, one sanitation mobiliser per 100 families. Vector control to be carried out in line with national guidelines. Soap to be distributed for personal hygiene and laundry at not less than 10 gm per person per day. Special hygiene materials to be distributed to women as needed.
At a quality and integration review meeting in Ruritania, the Domestic Needs/ Household Support team suggested that the first proposal of 20 gm of soap per person per day would be a difficult standard to achieve. After some discussion, the Sanitation sector team accepted the comment and reduced the standard from 20 gm per day to 10 gm per day as shown. Special hygiene materials refer to womens sanitary pads. Because of cultural taboos relating to menstruation, it would have been offensive to make a more direct reference in the contingency plan.
Specific Sectoral Scenario

The next task for the sector teams is to generate a more detailed scenario for each sector. This will appear at the beginning of each sector sub-chapter. While it is possible to use the working group to develop a single detailed scenario with fine detail for each sector, this is not an ideal approach. Why is the best approach to have the sectoral teams rather than the working group generate detailed scenarios?
The most efficient way of developing specific scenarios for each sector is to distribute the work among the sector teams. Each sector has specific considerations that are of little interest to the other sectors. For example, the question of which hospital is used for referral of surgery cases is usually of interest only to the Health/Nutrition sector team (unless there is a protection issue). The sector review meetings ensure that the sector scenarios are in line with the agreed working group scenario and resolve issues in the areas where sectors interact.
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Amending a sectoral plan is easier if the governing assumptions specific to that sector are part of the sector plan. It is much more difficult to amend a sector plan, if any changes in the sector specific assumptions call for an amendment of the working groups scenario. Sector scenarios state the additional assumptions that the sectoral team has made in addition to those already made in the working group scenario. Where a number of different sector scenarios share a common element, this element is no longer sector specific and should be moved from the sector scenarios to the working group scenario. Similarly, when a sector scenario element is a critical factor for that sector, it may be promoted to the working group scenario. Sanitation: Scenario
o Excreta disposal will be through communal pit latrines initially. These are acceptable to the refugee population provided that separate facilities are established for females and males. Households will be encouraged to dig individual family latrines. Individual family latrines are the norm in both southwest Northland and northern Ruritania. The NGOs working in the promotion of improved latrine slabs will be asked to assist with the training of artisans within the camps to produce the latrines. o Given the free draining soils in north Ruritania, drainage will not generally be a problem, except near site access roads and public spaces. The rations are preprocessed to reduce household waste. No large scale rubbish collection will be needed apart from a limited number of public collection points. o The Ministry of Agriculture will carry out vector control for tsetse fly. The Ministry of Health teams will control other vectors as for the local villages. o Each camp will have one Ministry of Health technician to supervise environmental sanitation in the camp and ensure compliance with national standards.
The scenario may need to be changed when more precise information becomes available. In Ruritania, the sanitation team discovered from the director of the NGO Latrines for All, that large parts of northern Ruritania were not suitable for pit latrines. The requirement that sites be suitable for pit latrines also appeared in the Shelter/Other Infrastructure sector, so this scenario element was moved to the working group scenario. Such an important assumption should be moved to the working group scenario, even if it appears in only one sector plan.
Needs Projection and Resource Assessment

Needs projection was discussed extensively in Unit 2. The needs projections do not directly appear in the contingency plan except as part of the gap identification. They are kept on file with the contingency planning secretariat. As with other aspects of the contingency planning process, integrating the information later will be much easier if sector teams are given a standard format for recording needs (similar to those presented in Unit 2). All needs projections should be on a timeline basis. Resource assessment is one of the key contributions that the sector teams can make to the contingency planning database. The assessment begins with human resources (both static and dynamic) because the sector teams may use these in the preparation of the plan. The working group or the sector teams may recruit dynamic human resources to assist in sectoral planning. In Ruritania, the sanitation sectoral team invited the Latrines for All director to assist with the planning. The team may begin by simply identifying the resource documents and other static human resources to use in planning and as standard guides during implementation. These are listed as references (by sector) in the annexes to the contingency plan. The contingency planning secretariat should obtain at least one copy of all the referenced documents and keep it on file. List documents in a standard format (such as the widely used Harvard format shown in the following example).
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Sanitation Published References

Adams, J (ed.) (1996) Sanitation in Emergency Situations: Proceedings of an International Workshop, held in Oxford, December 1995. Oxfam, Oxford. (Overview of issues) Chalinder, A. (1994) Water and Sanitation in Emergencies. Relief and Rehabilitation Network: Good Practice Review 1. Overseas Development Institute, London. (Summary of good practice) Latrines for All (1997) Latrine Slab Production Guide. Latrines for All, Delta. (Technical manual for latrine slab production). Reed, R.A. and Dean, P.T. (1994) Recommended Methods for the Disposal of Sanitary Wastes from Temporary Field Medical Facilities. Disasters, 18(4):355-367. (Good guide for health centre sanitation needs). Ruritania Ministry of Community Development (1994) Guidelines and standards for family latrine projects. MoCD, Alpha. (Guide to organisational aspects of latrine programmes.) Ruritania Ministry of Health (1996) Field Manual for Sanitation Technicians 2nd ed. MOH, Alpha. (Includes Vector Control guidelines) Thomson, M.C. (1995) Disease Prevention through Vector Control: Oxfam Practical Health Guide No. 10. Oxfam, Oxford. (excellent summary of vector control strategies)
The static human resource list should be annotated with short descriptions attached to each of the references to make it easier for future planners or users to find the information they need. The individual sector plans should list the relevant dynamic human resources and indicate the lead agency(ies) for that sector. These are divided into present and potential resources. Sanitation Human resourcesOrganisations and Sources of Expertise
Latrines for Alllead agency for latrine construction The Ministry of Healthlead agency for all other sanitation activities Presently working in this sector: o CARE o Ruritanian Rural Development o Oxfam Ruritania Other organisations interested in working in this sector in an emergency are: o Urban Health Initiative o MSF o IRC Specialist advice can be obtained from: o Programme Technical Support Section at UNHCR Headquarters o Mr Michael Tembo of GTZ worked for 8 years on community based sanitation programmes in southwest Northland. Suppliers o Cement: National Cement Ltd o Sprayers and Chemicals: Rurachem Ltd, Bayer Ruritania Ltd, Patel Trading Ltd. o Latrine slab moulds: GTZ Rural Artisans project o Simba Construction has an auger rig for the rapid construction of borehole latrines o Soap: Washo Soap Ltd is the only national soap manufacturer o Special hygiene needs: Fidelity Cotton Ltd, RuraPharm Ltd, Omar and Sons Ltd.
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Contact details are placed in the Appendix as the same resources may be useful for a number of sectors. Where possible, the contact list should include home numbers so that people can be contacted outside of normal working hours in an emergency. Appendix: Contact Details
Latrines for All, 31 Independence Avenue PO Box 1324 Alpha, Ruritania Phone +333 1 74135 Fax +333 1 74135 email: lfa@ngonet.ru. Jean Shida (Director) (Home tel: +333 1 62134) Fred Moyo (Project Manager) Kofi Malemba (Engineer)
The contact list may be one of the most useful parts of the contingency plan. This section will be useful no matter what sort of emergency occurs. If the contact list is detailed enough, it may even encourage recipients to keep the plan on their desk for the contact list alone. The contingency plan also presents a full list of physical resources identified during the planning. These are listed in an appendix at the back of the contingency plan. A number of key sectors will also show expected physical resources against the timeline in the sector plan.
Appendix: Resource Inventory

Latrine Slab Moulds Latrines for All GTZ Rural Artisans MoCD30 10 15 5 Ready made latrine slabs Latrines for All, Delta Latrines for All, Foxtrot CARE, Echo 300 100 150 50
(Note above are typical stock levels, not guaranteed stocks)
(50% held as reserve stocks for an emergency)
Note that for heavy or bulky items the resource inventory also indicates where the goods are held. The resource list also shows whether the stock levels quoted are typical or guaranteed stock levels.
Why are the resources given in detail while projected needs are not?
Many of the resources listed will be useful no matter what the emergency. Needs are projected during the planning process so that gaps can be identified. The actual needs must be re-assessed once the emergency happens.
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Gap Identification
Gap identification was also discussed in Unit 2. Timeline gap identification tables are prepared for all the sectors aspects, but the gap identification sheets are only presented in the contingency plan if gaps are felt to be critical. Otherwise, a brief mention is made of the possible gaps in the sector plan text. The gaps section also identifies any special sensitivities in the sector. Sanitation Service Gaps
The likely number of public latrines dug will lag behind actual needs for the first three weeks. Borehole latrines, shallow trench latrines, and sanitation patrols will be used in this period while communal latrines are prepared. It will be four months before every family has its own individual latrine. These gaps would grow substantially if there is a shortage of cement or cement transport availability or if the number of refugees becomes greater than 50,000.
Recommended Co-ordination Mechanism for Sector

Co-ordination is the key to success in emergency operations. Every partner must be aware of the co-ordination mechanism currently in force. The use of lead agencies can reduce the need to co-ordinate details at a central level. Details can be left to the lead agency to resolve with the other agencies. At the sector level, each sector team indicates the co-ordination mechanism for that sector. Sanitation Co-ordination
o Sanitation activities at each site will be co-ordinated through the health sector meeting at each site. o All pit latrine construction activity will be co-ordinated through Latrines for All. o All other sanitation activity will be co-ordinated through the Ministry of Healths Sanitation Technician assigned to each site.
Task Allocation and Sector Recommendations

The sector planners also allocate tasks within the sector and indicate if these tasks should be undertaken immediately or only upon implementation of the plan. Sanitation Tasks and recommendations
Purchase 50 latrine slab moulds for contingency stock Assign 5 slab training teams to settlements Assign Sanitation Technicians to settlements. Pay per diem at GoR rate. Review suitability of proposed sites for latrines and environmental health Develop stand-by contract with Simba Construction for borehole latrines Training workshop on camp sanitation
Who
UNHCR LFA
When
Now After event
MoH (UNHCR Funding) After event LFA, MOH UNCHR CARE Now Now Now
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Data Which Are Not Published in the Plan

A great deal of the data which are collected are not published in the contingency plan, but are filed away by the planning secretariat, after presentation at the review meetings. Was it a waste of resources to collect data which are not published in the plan?
All of the information collected should have been used to form the conclusions of the plan. Therefore, the collection is not a waste of resources. The discussion of the data by the working group will help to form their final outlook and plans. For example, it is impossible to predict if gaps will arise without carrying out a needs projection. The presentation of gap identification sheets at the review meetings allows the whole working group to determine what is critical and what is not. Non-critical gaps should not be described in detail in the contingency plan. All of the information collected will be available if an influx is imminent and more detailed planning is required.
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Summary
The working group is the engine of the contingency planning process. Working group tasks include: developing the detailed scenario, establishing the sector teams, reviewing and integrating the sector plans, and reviewing the final contingency plan. The working group establishes the time line that is to be used for the scenario, needs projection, resource assessment, and gap identification. The working group reviews sector plans for both their quality and Integration with each other. The continuing tasks for the working group are group maintenance and regular reviews of the contingency plan. The sector teams tasks include developing a sector specific scenario; setting objectives and standards; projecting needs; assessing resources; identifying gaps and making recommendations on co-ordination, tasks and actions. Sector scenarios are specific for that sector. If elements are shared with other sectoral plans, or if the elements are critical assumptions, they should be moved to the working group scenario. Sector objectives should be SMART: that is, Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Time-bound. Human resources are identified first because they may be used to develop the sector plan. Contact details are listed for every dynamic human resource identified. Only some of the data collected are published in the plan.
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1. The working group is responsible for developing the detailed scenario 2. The scenario details should not be changed at all after they are set in the first meeting 3. A roundtable meeting must be called even for minor changes to the contingency plan. 4. The sector teams generate a more detailed scenario specifically for their sectors. 5. Data that are collected but not published in the plan are not a wasted resource.
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. A typical training workshop for the working group will not include A s B s C s D s An overview of contingency planning The use and limits of scenarios Culture and geography of the country Overview of tools for planning
7. Nominal groups work best when A s B s C s D s They have had a good nights sleep People have time to consider their contributions before hand The issue to be discussed is sprung as a surprise The nominal group session follows a regular meeting
8. The most efficient way in which to develop specific scenarios for each sector is for: A s B s C s D s The sector teams to work together in the working group to produce a detailed scenario To distribute the work among the sector teams To have the working group prepare a very detailed scenario before splitting into sectoral teams None of the above
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9. Which of the following is not a SMART criteria? A s B s C s D s Sectoral and Measurable Realistic and Time-bound Achievable and Specific Measurable and Timebound
10. Which of the following is true of resource inventories? A s B s C s D s Resource inventories for heavy items state where the items are held A number of key sector plans will show expected physical resources against the plan timeline. The contact list may be one of the most useful parts of the contingency plan All of the above
Exercise A In the regular review meeting after three months, what questions about the original planning scenario would you have for the working group?
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Exercise B Examine the sample text given for Sanitation Objectives and Standards below. If all of the objectives are both Realistic and Achievable, which of the standards and objectives meets the other requirements to be SMART as described in the text? Sanitation Objectives and Standards
To control risk of disease through effective and culturally appropriate sanitation measures To limit demand for curative medical care through effective sanitationspecifically to limit diarrhoeal disease incidence to less than 5% within 2 months of arrival To establish an effective public health education presence in the first week with a full network within two months of arrival Initially, 1 latrine per 50 persons (plus latrines for health centres, markets, etc) 1 latrine per family within 4 months 1 environmental health technician per 10,000 people, 1 sanitation mobiliser per 100 families Vector control to be carried out in line with national guidelines Soap to be distributed for personal hygiene and laundry at not less than 10gm per person per day. Special sanitary materials to be distributed as needed
Could any of the objectives or standards that are not SMART be improved to make them SMART?
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T F F T T
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
C B B B D
Exercise Answers
A There are several ways in which the working group could be asked to comment on the originally proposed scenario, but the chief questions should probably include: o o Is this still the most likely scenario? Have there been major changes in the last three months that make some portions of the scenarios unrealistic? While the whole scenario may be still the most likely, some components may no longer be valid. Are there other general scenarios outside of the one for this plan that you now consider more likely? Should the general scenario be amended to include the new risks? This would mean referring the planning process back to the roundtable.
(continued next page)
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B One analysis of the compliance with the SMART criteria is as follows
Sanitation Objectives and Standards

To control risk of disease through effective and culturally appropriate sanitation measures To limit demand for curative medical care through effective sanitationspecifically to limit diarrhoeal disease incidence to less than 5% within 2 months of arrival To establish an effective public health education presence in the first week with a full network within two months of arrival Initially, 1 latrine per 50 persons (plus latrines for health centres, markets, etc) 1 latrine per family within 4 months 1 environmental health technician per 10,000 people, 1 sanitation mobiliser per 100 families Vector control to be carried out in line with national guidelines Soap to be distributed for personal hygiene and laundry at not less than 10gm per person per day. Special sanitary materials to be distributed as needed
Some of the objectives could be improved by adding time frames. For example, what does Initially, one latrine per 50 people mean? Does it mean that latrines should be in place before anyone moves to the site, or that latrines should be provided within one week? Other objectives could be improved by making them measurable. To control the risk of disease would be much more useful as an objective if specific target incidence levels were give for sanitation related diseases and a timetable for achieving them.
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The Core Team: Preparing the Draft
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s The functions of the core team s The specific parts of the plan to
be prepared by the core team
s How to prepare the draft of

the plan
Introduction
The core team is the nucleus of the working group. The core team normally consists of the process manager or focal point with one or two other working group members together with the secretariat. The process manager will normally select the other members of the core team, who may be selected for their editing and writing skills. Editing and consolidating the draft is a large part of the core teams work. The process manager may recruit the other members of the core team to help with the preparatory work for the roundtable. The chief functions of the core team are: Ensuring the internal consistency of the plan Integrating (with the working group) the sector plans into a unified whole Drafting the chapter on management and overall co-ordination Preparing the draft budget The core team ensures internal consistency through quality and integration reviews of the sectoral plans by the working group, and through their own editing of the plan. The core team should encourage the sector teams to resolve inconsistencies between sector plans during review meetings. If this does not occur, the core team will have to resolve the issues while preparing the draft. Table of Contents of Contingency Plan
Acknowledgements Table of Contents Chapter One: Introduction and Objectives Chapter Two: Scenario Chapter Three: Management and Co-ordination Chapter Four: Sectoral Plans A. Food B. Transport/Logistics C. Domestic Needs/Household Support
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D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. L. M. N. O. P.
Water Supply Sanitation Health/Nutrition Shelter/Other Infrastructure Community Services Education Crop Production Livestock/Animal Husbandry Fisheries Forestry Income Generation Legal Assistance/Protection Agency Operational Support
Chapter Five: Outline Budget Chapter Six: Activity Matrix Chapter Seven: Physical Resource Inventory Chapter Eight: Static Human Resource Inventory Chapter Nine: Contact List Appendices
Standardisation
Drawing together all of the sector plans to make a single coherent contingency plan can be a huge task. Standardisation is the key to minimising the work of preparing the draft. If all of the sector drafts are in a standard format, it is much easier to integrate them. The core team can use a number of strategiesshown in the Standardisation Checklistto ensure that plans are in a standard format. Standardisation checklist Plan component templates Sample documents Monitor planning Standardised terms Standard forms
s s s s s s s
Needs projection Physical resource availability Static human resources Dynamic human resources Contact details Timeline gap identification Budget estimate
Editing
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Samples for standard plan components are very useful. The core team should distribute these on paper and on disk for the most common word processing programmes. This greatly reduces the amount of editing required to harmonise the appearance of the sector plans. The sample text for sector plans will help the sectoral teams produce the plan in the desired format. The samples distributed should reflect the level of detail and the desired format that will be required for the contingency plan. Contents of Sector Plan
Objectives Standards Scenario Dynamic human resources inventory Gaps (include timeline gap identification sheets if critical) Co-ordination Tasks and recommendations
The chief monitoring mechanism is the series of quality and integration review meetings. These meetings have already been discussed in Chapter 8. In addition, the core team has to carefully read the drafts and other data presented at each review to monitor quality and integration. The terms and units that are used should be consistent. For example, all plan quantities should be in standard metric units. The working group should decide whether the number of individual beneficiaries or the number of families is to be used as the primary measure for counting total beneficiaries. For example, if families are chosen as the primary unit, number of families should be used throughout the plan (for needs projection, gap identification, etc.)
When is it more appropriate to count individuals rather than families?
Sectors with components that focus on assistance to individuals (unaccompanied minors, special needs, some protection issues) will always count individuals rather than families. Other issues for standardisation include names of towns and technical terms (for example, severely malnourished). While it is possible to draw up a standard set of names and terms, it is much simpler to resolve these issues as they arise. The core team should be alert to the need for standardisation Preparing standard forms for recording data and conclusions is a good way to ensure that data is presented in a consistent way across different sectors. The core team should distribute forms, both paper versions and templates for the most common computer spreadsheet programmes. Preparing standard forms in advance also means that time is saved as each group does not have to re-invent the wheel by devising their own forms or data layout.
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Editing the plan ensures internal consistency. Despite all of the efforts for standardisation and integration, there will still be errors and inconsistencies, which can be resolved with careful editing. Editing the draft is the primary role of the core team. In Ruritania, the editing process revealed that different sector plans were based on different assumptions about how long refugees would spend in reception centres before being moved to a camp. One sector team had inadvertently changed the unit from families to individuals without altering their numbers (thus overstating the needs). Even the best contingency plan will contain errors. Any errors found in the published plan should be reported to the core team for correction in the next version.
Specific Components Prepared by The Core Team

In addition to assembling and editing the draft, the core team also prepares: The acknowledgements list of all the individuals and organisations who have had an input into the plan. In addition, the names of the roundtable attendees (and any absences) are also listed. The management and co-ordination chapter (together with the working group) The activity matrix, showing which agency has accepted which tasks in which sectors The outline budget from details supplied by the sector teams. In addition, the Core Team consolidates lists supplied by the sector teams (such as the physical resources inventory and the contact list) into unified lists for all sectors. The activity matrix shows which agency has been allocated specific tasks within the plan. It does not, however, show the names of resource agencies within the sector that have not been allocated specific tasks. The matrix is a useful planning tool for ensuring that agencies do not overcommit themselves. The activity matrix is one of the components prepared by the core team. The activity matrix can also be useful when an emergency is different from the planning scenario. It can then be used to identify agencies that may have capacity problems in the new situation. In Ruritania, one NGO undertook to manage both water supply and the transport of non-food items in the contingency plan. For the emergency response, more transport was needed, and water had to be trucked instead of using wells and boreholes. This meant that the agency was now committed beyond its capacity to manage such a large trucking fleet. This was obvious in the activity matrix and another agency was asked to handle non-food transport for the purposes of the contingency plan.
Management and Co-ordination

Management and co-ordination are key to a successful emergency response. In most cases, management and co-ordination mechanisms already exist in some form. Where possible, existing structures should be used or adapted for emergency co-ordination The chapter on Management and Co-ordination describes the overall co-ordination mechanism as well as the details given for the co-ordination of each sector. The co-ordinating mechanism should fit the culture and existing practice of the country to the greatest extent possible.
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Management and Co-ordination Section

Emergency Co-ordination Emergency co-ordination will be managed by the inter-agency roundtable jointly chaired by the Ministry of Home Affairs and UNHCR. This will meet at the Ministry at 1000 every Saturday during the crisis period to resolve any policy issues that arise. More frequent meetings may be called if required. Operational co-ordination The working group, chaired by the Ministry of Home Affairs and UNHCR, will coordinate operational aspects of the emergency response. The working group will meet each morning at 0830 at the UNHCR offices during any emergency. Meeting frequency will be reduced after the initial stages of the emergency. Local co-ordination meetings will take place every evening at 1900 at operational sites. These meetings will be chaired by UNHCR. The District Commissioner or his representative will attend these meetings.
Budget
The core team consolidates the overall budget from the budgets prepared by each sector team. In order to assist in budget preparation, the core team sets standard rates for common budget elements such as vehicles, staff, etc.
Why does the core team set standard rates for common budget elements?
Standard rates are set partly to demonstrate transparency and partly to speed budget negotiations after an emergency. It is quicker to set standard costs and then negotiate on the number of items required. The budget is stated in very general terms with many items quoted on a lump sum or cost per person basis. Like the rest of the plan the budget should have a level of detail sufficient to balance the likelihood and scale of the event.
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ap
te
Summary
The core team is the nucleus of the working group. The core team ensures the internal consistency of the plan. Writing the plan draft is the key task for the core team. Standardisation reduces the scale of the drafting task. The budget presented should be very general.
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1. The core team ensures internal consistency through reviewing the sectoral plans and through their own editing of the plan 2. Standardisation does little to reduce the work of preparing the draft 3. The working group decides what the standard family size is assumed to be 4. The completed contingency plan will contain no errors 5. Contingency plan budgets should be as detailed as possible
Multiple choice. Mark ALL correct statementsmore than one may apply. 6. The process manager usually selects core team members based on their: A s B s C s D s Knowledge of the country Ability to work with others Writing and editing skill Seniority within the working group
7. The core teams key task is A s B s C s D s To define the overall objectives of the plan To write the draft plan To prepare the budget None of the above
8. The core team writes the following components A s B s C s D s The overall objectives The outline budget The sector plans All of the above
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EP 01
9. Standardisation can be encouraged through A s B s C s D s Plan component templates Monitoring planning Standard forms All of the above
10. The activity matrix shows which agency has A s B s C s D s Been allocated specific tasks within the plan against the sectors Performed best in the previous year The largest programme in the country Previously worked with UNHCR
No contingency plan is perfect. However, many errors can be eliminated in each review cycle. Would it be worthwhile having a special review just before publishing to remove most of the errors? Why or why not?
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Epilogue: What Happened in Ruritania?

The anticipated emergency did not occur and the contingency plan was not used in its original form. The elections in Northland passed with only minor disturbances and there was no refugee influx. At the next meeting of the working group it was decided to recommend to the roundtable that the plan be revised to cover refugee influxes across the whole country as a general preparedness measure. This did not happen either, because the simmering civil war in Eastland suddenly boiled over after an unexpected alliance between two of the main protagonists. Fighting flared up, causing nearly 100,000 refugees to flee to the south of Ruritania in two weeks. Many components of the contingency plan were useful. It was used as a base document for planning the response to the new emergency. The catalogue of resources allowed rapid mobilisation. The contact list alone was said to have saved a day at the start of the operation. The UNHCR Representative said that the close links that the working group had developed during the planning process were more important than anything in the plan itself. The contingency planning process had developed an emergency response team in advance of the influx. The Representative also felt that the planning process itself, with the continual review and refinement of sectoral plans, had a very positive effect on overall emergency preparedness. When we had the influx from Eastland, co-ordination was relatively easy. Everyone already knew what to do, and more importantly, they knew what others had to do. They were aware of each others roles. That prevented a lot of the usual role conflict between agencies.
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T F T F F
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
C B B D A
Exercise Answer Probably not. The aim is to produce a guide for a possible emergency. Much of what actually happens may not reflect the planning scenario. Efforts to achieve perfection in the contingency plan would probably only be a waste of time. Worse, the additional time required for such an exercise might disenchant partners with the process and make them less willing to participate.
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COURSE EVALUATION
COURSE: EP-01 Contingency Planning UNHCR

Date you finished the course: _________________________________________________ What is your present position? ________________________________________________ How many years have you spent in disaster-related work? _______________________ How many years of formal education do you have? s 0 to 6 years s 7 to 12 years s 12 to 16 years s more than 16 years
How was the content level of this course? s too difficult s about right s too easy
Was the course material relevant to your work? s yes s no
How useful were the self-assessment tests to you? s very useful s OK s not useful
How valuable was the total course? s very valuable s of some value s not valuable
Additional comments: ________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________

Please copy and return this form by mail or fax, or send the information via e-mail to: University of WisconsinDisaster Management Center 432 Lake Street Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA Fax: 1-608-263-3160 142 E-mail: dmc@engr.wisc.edu
Disaster Management Center

University of Wisconsin-Madison
Examination Request Form

This exam must be proctored (supervised) just as it would be for a course taken on campus. Generally, proctors do not charge for this service. In all cases the academic department offering the course must approve the choice of proctor. Qualified proctors include university or college registrars, deans or counselors or professors; high school principals or counselors; directors of educational services at universities, other educational organizations, correctional institutions or the armed services; certified librarians in a supervisory position; or the delegated officials at university testing centers. Students residing outside of the United States may also request, as their proctor, a local director of educational services or an officer of the United States embassy or consulate. Please copy this form as needed. Date Submitted Course Title ________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________
Student Information: Name Mailing Address ________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ Proctor Information: Name Title Organization ________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________
Complete Mailing Address (Please provide street address, in case courier service is used.) ________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ Phone Number OR Email Address ________________________________________________________________
Please return this form by mail or fax, or send the information via e-mail to: University of WisconsinDisaster Management Center 432 Lake Street Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA Fax: 1-608-263-3160 E-mail: dmc@engr.wisc.edu

EP01 Contingency Planning

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EP 01

Emergency Preparedness Competency

Emergency Preparedness Competency

Self Study Module

Enrollment, Final Examination and Course Evaluation .................................................. 139

Welcome and Introduction

Learning Objectives for this Course

Organisation of this Course

How to Use this Course

Instant Feedback: Self-assessment questions, exercises and worksheets

Emergency Preparedness Competency

Contingency Planning Principles

PRETEST Contingency Planning Principles

Check T or F to indicate whether a statement is True or False

13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8.

20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15.

Planning for Contingencies

s What contingency planning

s Why contingency planning efforts

s Why you should plan for

s About the connections between

s What events are suitable for

o It prepares planners for the emergency response by defining

o It may include actions designed to prevent an emergency as well

Events Suitable for Contingency Planning

The Process is as Important as the Plan

The Plan is Also Important

The Users of the Contingency Plan

The Emergency Continuum Model

The Emergency Continuum Model

Long-Term Response (Durable Solutions)

Where in the Emergency Continuum would you place Contingency Planning?

Contingency Planning: Part of the Planning Continuum

The Planning Continuum Model

Emergency Response Planning

Differences between Contingency and Emergency Response Planning

The Relationship Between Contingency Planning and Early Warning

Resources used for contingency planning

Increased Early Warning Indicators

The Use of Indicators in Contingency Planning

Immediate Preparedness for Response

Chapter 1 Self-Assessment Questions Check T or F to indicate whether a statement is True or False T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s T F s s

If so, in what sort of situation is this most likely to occur?

What problems might occur in post-emergency contingency planning?

Partners in the Planning Process

Who Should Plan?

Levels of Contingency Planning

Policy input and feedback

Sub Office Regional Plan

Support, advice and feedback

Field Office District Plan

Give examples of contingency plans that may be confidential.

How might the contingency planning team access such documents?

The Benefits of Partnerships in Planning

Acceptance and Commitment

Contingency Planning as Consensus Building

What are some limitations of the consensus building process?

Which Partners Are Involved?

UN and Intergovernmental Agencies

Refugees and the Local Population

Use of Outside Experts

Assembling Planning Partners