Singapore

THE REAL DEALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

Watercolours Make a Splash
Located in close proximity to Pasir Ris Park, Executive condominium (EC) Watercolours opened for applications on Labour Day. In 2011, the site was heatedly bidded for, receiving a total of 11 bids. A consortium comprising Ho Lee Group, EVIA Real Estate, UE E&C, and GPS Alliance scored the winning bid with SGD122.2m that translates into a land price of SGD291 psf ppr and an estimated break-even price of SGD560 psf. The indicative selling prices range from SGD680720 psf, approximately 15% cheaper than the recently-launched Ripple Bay by MCL Land and 24% lower than Far Easts Seastrand that was launched last May. However, the latter two projects are full-fledged condominiums and not ECs. Watercolours comprising 416 dwelling units has already received a staggering 400 online applications. Another EC, One Canberra, was launched last week by developer MCC Land. The site features 650 units with a total GFA of 730,700 sq ft, and is situated next to Far Easts Eight Courtyards, a private condominium. We expect the selling price to average SGD700 psf, around 15% below Eight Courtyards average selling price of SGD826 psf. With the ECs priced so competitively compared to the private condominiums, we expect both ECs to be oversubscribed. The government has recently tweaked its EC policy to substantially increase the units allocated for 2nd-timers from 5% to 30%. We expect many second-timers to try their luck, drawn by the relatively attractive prices. If this round of EC launches is not to your taste, dont fret, as three more ECs will be launched within this year or the next. Since 2010, 16 EC sites were sold under the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme and 13 have been launched by developers. As of 1Q12, the stock of completed EC units stands at 10,430 units. Currently, 7,139 units are in the pipeline, while another 2,900 units are expected to be released by GLS by year-end. In 1Q12, developers launched 1,864 EC units and sold 1,557 units, compared to 432 in 4Q11.
Sites zoned for ECs since 2010 Watercolours

Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012

3 May 2012

One Canberra

EC sites 2011 EC tender awarded & launched EC sites recently sold

Source: onemap.sg

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

THE REAL DEALS

Trending ECs
Project name Address Developer District Est. breakeven price Selling price Total units Neighbouring new launches Avg. new sale price District median rental
Source: onemap.sg Neighbouring resale prices 1000 Yishun Sapphire 800 600 400 200 Jan-04 Source: URA May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Yishun Emerald

One Canberra Yishun Avenue 7/Canberra Dr MCC Land 27 SGD570 psf Est SGD700 psf (approx. 15% discount to private new launches) 665 Eight Courtyards, Canberra Residences SGD826 psf SGD2.31 psf pm

One Canberra TOP: 2016

Eight Courtyards Dev: Far East TOP: 2014 Latest ASP: $788psf Land price: $193.1psf

Yishun Sapphire and Yishun Emerald are located just north of Eight Courtyards. Both projects that were completed in 2002 are on a 99-year leasehold. Together, they hold 816 units. The average resale prices in 2011 are around 15 20% below the new sale prices observed at Eight Courtyards. From the current rental listings, landlords are asking for rental prices in the SGD2.73 psf pm range, implying a yield of between 45%.
Project name
Sea Esta (to be launched) Dev: Hoi Hup, Sunway, Straits Construction Ripple Bay Dev: MCL Land TOP: 2016 Latest ASP: $808psf Land price: $402 psf

Watercolours Pasir Ris Drive 3/ Pasir Ris Link Ho Lee Group Pte Ltd & Maxdin Pte 17 SGD560 psf SGD680720 psf (approx. 15% discount to Ripple Bay) 417 Ripple Bay, Seastrand SGD850 psf SGD2.51 psf pm

Address Developer District Est. breakeven price Selling price Total units Neighbouring new launches Avg. new sale price District median rental

Watercolours TOP: 2016

Seastrand Dev: Far East TOP: 2014 Latest ASP: $925 psf Land price: $335 psf

Source: onemap.sg Neighbouring resale prices 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Sep-02 Source: URA Jan-04

Celadon View

Coastal Breeze Residences Coast Breeze Residences

JLB Residences

May-05

Oct-06

Feb-08

Jul-09

Nov-10

Apr-12

Other than new launches such as Ripple Bay and Seastrand, along Jalan Loyang Besar are a clutter of small private projects such as Celadon View, Coastal Breeze Residences and JLB Residences.

3 May 2012

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Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

THE REAL DEALS

Upcoming EC launches
Upper Serangoon View/Upper Serangoon Road Developer Ho Lee Group & Evia Realty GFA/Units Neighbouring project/Selling price Est. Breakeven price 828,824 sqft/435 units Boathouse Residences/SGD914 psf SGD565615 psf Punggol Central/Edgefield Plains Developer Qingjiang Realty (South Pacific) GFA/Units 427,604 sq ft/395 units Neighbouring Watertown/SGD1,284 psf project/Selling price Est. Breakeven price SGD570630 psf

Fernvale Lane Developer GFA/Units Neighbouring project/Selling price Est. Breakeven price

Peak Living 236,807/770 Seletar Park Residences/SGD1,162 psf SGD566620 psf

Source: URA, HDB

3 May 2012

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Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

THE REAL DEALS

MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent EC resale transactions
Project Nuovo NorthOaks The Esparis The Quintet The Esparis Whitewater Northoaks The Eden at Tampines The Esparis The Quintet The Rivervale The Dew Yew Mei Green Pinevale Summerdale The Quntet The Florida Windermere Woodsvale Nuovo The Quintet The Florida Yew Mei Green Pinevale The Esparis Bishan Loft The Rivervale Yew Mei Green The Eden at Tampines The Rivervale Woodsvale
Source: URA

03 May 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Property Price Indices

Contract month Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12 Apr-12

Size (sq m) 129 116 225 119 225 105 113 115 225 117 116 122 131 120 111 117 129 134 120 227 120 114 161 129 227 128 134 124 121 120 117

Price ($psf) 774 655 657 565 640 750 658 784 676 715 725 754 686 677 741 700 648 624 647 667 697 693 577 654 626 980 714 671 752 726 657

Index SRPI Overall (Mar 12) URA PPI (1Q12) HDB Resale (1Q12)

Level 165.4 206.0 191.0

Change +0.8% -0.1% +0.6%

Government Land Sales (GLS)

Recently Awarded Sites
Site Site area (k sqm) Units Awarded to Land price (S$m) Psf. Ppr

Jalan Lempeng Kovan Road / Simon Road Jervois Road Bedok South Avenue 3 Hillview Avenue Up Serangoon View/ Up Serangoon Rd
(EC)

68.4 35.7 12.5 60.2 35.4

685 360 140 595 370

IOI Corp Hoi Hup consortium Singapore Land Far East/ Frasers/ Sekisui House Kingsford Development Ho Lee Group Pte & Evia Real Estate Qingjian Realty (South Pacific) Peak Living Pte Elitist Development
Site area (k sqm)

408 195 119 346 243

554 507 881 534 638

43.4

435

142

303

Punggol Central/ Edgefield (EC) Fernvale Lane

(EC)

13.2 22.0 32.7

395 770 295

137 245 166

320 296 461

Elias Rd/ Pasir Ris Dr 3

Confirmed List
Site Woodlands Ave 5/ Woodlands Dr 16
(EC) Units Tender Closing

25.8 20.8 56.2 48.7 60.7 22.3 18.3

720 580 600 590 710 670 620

3-May 10-May 17-May 29-May 31-May 5-June 12-June

Tampines Central 7/ Tampines Ave 7/ Tampines Av 9 (EC) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel A) Boon Lay Way (Jurong Gateway) Sengkang Square/ Compassvale Drive Pasir Ris Dr 3 Buangkok Drive/ Sengkang Central

Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.97 CityDev 10.4 Ho Bee 1.355 HPL 2 KepLand 3.15 SC Global 0.995 SingLand 5.99 UOL 4.64 Wheelock 1.79 Wing Tai 1.19 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.95 -40% 3.51 12.4 -16% 7.51 3.18 -57% 2.34 4.39 -54% 2.7 5.77 -45% 3.64 3.6 -72% 1.59 9.82 -39% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.81 -58% 2.47 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -15% 38% -42% -26% -13% -37% -44% -28% -24% -52%

Reserve List (Recently Open for Tender)

Site area (k sqm)

Jalan Jurong Kechil Stirling Road Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) Farrer Dr & Rd Alexandra View Punggol Way/ Punggol Walk (EC) Bishan Street 14 Source: HDB, URA

14.2 88.6 47.9 10.0 41.2 18.7 11.2

Units 240 1045 515 140 455 560 590

3 May 2012

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Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

THE REAL DEALS

03 May 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Take -up rate (%) 73% 26% 82% 99% 95% 47% 28% 30% 50% 87% 41% 61% 87% 47% 92% 57% 51% 58% 51% 48% 24% 68%
100%

Secondary Market
Units sold (Mar) 14 9 54 69 41 34 31 30 25 20 20 18 10 93 83 41 38 27 19 326 102 74 12 369 118 115 98 86 48 45 39 37 28 27 19 18 10 56 56 30 15 153 41 40 14 13
Median

($psf) 2,092 3,265 1,270 1,379 1,242 1,448 1,308 1,735 1,267 1,330 1,100 1,236 1,131 1,074 1,309 1,388 1,330 1,229 1,397 883 860 905 849 725 890 880 1162 1,246 1048 1437 834 695 1,342 1,001 1,282 900 940 738 1334 1,412 704 798 1038 882 869 827

City & Southwest (1-8) Skyline Residences 283 208 Orchard / Tanglin / Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 60 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Thomson Grand 361 296 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Millage 70 69 Levenue 43 41 Smart Suites 72 34 Cradels 125 35 18 Woodsville 101 30 Ness 62 31 Centra Residences 78 68 Riviera 38 102 42 Primedge 36 22 Vacanza @ East 473 410 East Coast (15-16) Archipelago 577 271 East Village 90 83 Sycamore Tree 96 55 The Cristallo 74 38 Flamingo Valley 393 226 The Lush 37 19 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) Ripple Bay 679 326 Palm Isles 429 102 The Palette 892 609 NV Residences 642 642 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Twin Waterfall (EC) 728 625 The Minton 1145 1062 Riversound Residences 590 310 Seletar Park Residence 276 98 Bartley Residences 702 251 The Luxurie 622 322 Casa Cambio 198 192 Parc Vera 452 287 Austville Residences (EC) 540 493 Watertown 992 935 Terrasse 414 382 Cardiff Residences 163 124 Boathouse Residences 493 374 A Treasure Trove 882 820 West (22-24) The Rainforest (EC) 466 408 Natura@Hillview 193 56 The Hillier 528 478 Blossom Residences(EC) 602 505 North (25-28) Tampines Trilliant (EC) 670 338 Parc Rosewood 689 607 The Nautical 435 251 The Miltonia Residences 410 358 Eight Courtyards 654 555 Source: URA

District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA

$psf Feb12 1,347 1,776 1,207 928 977 774 899 793 710

$psf Mar12 1,347 1,743 1,233 990 1,031 802 880 791 743

MoM % change 0.0 -1.9 2.2 6.7 5.5 3.7 -2.2 -0.2 4.7

Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Feb12 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.0 $psf pm Mar12 4.6 4.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 MoM % change -5.2 -1.4 -3.2 -3.9 -2.0 -2.0 1.3 1.4 -12.9

Top 5 Resale Transactions by $psf

Project Helio Residences Marina Collection Nassim 9 The Claymore Grange Residences Source: URA Tenure Freehold 99 Yr (fm 2007) Freehold Freehold Freehold District 9 4 10 9 10 $psf 3,402 2,825 2800 2,674 2,671

86% 93% 53% 36% 36% 52% 97% 63% 91% 94% 92% 76% 76% 93% 88% 29% 91% 84% 50% 88% 58% 87% 85%

Bottom 5 Resale Transactions by $psf

Project Lakeside Tower Chinatown Plaza Lakeside Apartments Lakepoint Condo Hong Heng Garden Source: URA Tenure 99 Yr (fm 1975) Freehold 99 Yr (fm 1977) 99 Yr (fm 1983) Freehold District 22 2 22 22 26 $psf 460 551 552 557 564

3 May 2012

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Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

THE REAL DEALS

03 May 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank

Tenure 99yr 99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

Unsold Units 545 118 122 203 178 5 150 283 1,517 605 135 451 785 58 97 207 545 5,459 68 620 286 307 234 94 300 1,909

City Dev

Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) Total Unsold Units

KepLand

1 2 4 4 4 4 19

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

CapitaLand

3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26

The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units

99yr Freehold 99yr Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr Freehold

336 39 1,249 55 150 72 509 140 2,550 110 357 467 11 306 317 187 131 248 147 60 20 793 74 84 158

Ho Bee

Sentosa Sentosa

Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units

99yr 99yr

UOL

2 16

Freehold 99yr

Allgreen

2 5 9 12 12 21

99yr Freehold 999yr 999yr 999yr Freehold

Wheelock

9 10

Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units

Freehold Freehold

3 May 2012

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Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

THE REAL DEALS

03 May 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

DEVELOPERS LANDBANK (CONTD)

Developer District 2 10 26 Landbank Guocoland

Tenure 99yr 99yr Freehold

Unsold Units 500 381 36 917 75 55 24 88 221 80 232 80 855 249 197 23 595 97 327 119 47 103 99 1,856 17 64 38 42 157 35 276 629 32 70 65 353 32 520 35 208 23 50 31 347 16,809

Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units

Bt Sembawang

4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 999yr

Frasers Centrepoint

9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27

Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

Wing Tai

3 9 9 10 10 11 23

99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

MCL Land

10 10 15 17 19

Palms @ Sixth Avenue (6 avenue) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units

Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr

SC Global

9 9 9 10 Sentosa

The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

Source: HDB, URA

3 May 2012

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Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

THE REAL DEALS

This report, and any electronic access to it, is restricted to and intended only for clients of Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. ("MAYBANK KERPL") or a related entity to MAYBANK KERPL (as the case may be) who are institutional investors (for the purposes of both the Singapore Securities and Futures Act (SFA) and the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (FAA)) and who are allowed access thereto (each an "Authorised Person") and is subject to the terms and disclaimers below. IF YOU ARE NOT AN AUTHORISED PERSON OR DO NOT AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS AND DISCLAIMERS SET OUT BELOW, YOU SHOULD DISREGARD THIS REPORT IN ITS ENTIRETY AND LET KER OR ITS RELATED ENTITY (AS RELEVANT) KNOW THAT YOU NO LONGER WISH TO RECEIVE SUCH REPORTS. This report provides information and opinions as reference resource only. This report is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial products. The information and commentaries are also not meant to be endorsements or offerings of any securities, options, stocks or other investment vehicles. The report has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Readers should not rely on any of the information herein as authoritative or substitute for the exercise of their own skill and judgment in making any investment or other decision. Readers should independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and are encouraged to seek the advice of a financial adviser before making any investment or entering into any transaction in relation to the securities mentioned in this report. 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Additional information on mentioned securities is available on request. Jurisdiction Specific Additional Disclaimers: THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PRESS OR OTHER MEDIA, AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA, OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY KOREAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PRESS OR OTHER MEDIA, AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO MALAYSIA OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY MALAYSIAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN MALAYSIA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply if the reader is receiving or accessing this report in or from other than Singapore. As of 3 May 2012, Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. and the covering analyst do not have any interest in the stocks mentioned. Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. 2012 Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

Stephanie Wong CEO, Maybank Kim Eng Research

www.maybank-ke.com | www.kimengreseach.com.sg 3 May 2012 Page 8 of 8