Sudan Climate Change - Balgis Elasha

January, 2009
Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha
By
Photo: by Dr. Mohamed El Gamri /Sudan UniversityKhartoum
January, 2009
Table of contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.....................................................................................................................................5 1 STATE OF ENVIRONMENT IN SUDAN ......................................................................................................12 2. CURRENT SCIENCE ......................................................................................................................................15 2.1 CURRENT VARIABILITY AND VULNERABILITY TO VARIABILITY ..................................................................15 2.2 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE .......................................................................................................................19 3) PHYSICAL AND SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACTS & IMPLICATIONS .................................................23 3.1 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY .................................................................................................23 3.2 HUMAN HEALTH .........................................................................................................................................26 3.3 WATER RESOURCES AND NILE ECOSYSTEM ....................................................................................28 3.4 IMPLICATION FOR CONFLICTS AND MIGRATION TRENDS .........................................................31 4) ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................................................35 4.1 ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (AICC-AF14) PROJECT ..............................................................................................................................................................36 5. EARLY WARNING AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING .....................................................................37 6. SHORT TERM RELIEF VERSUS LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT .......................................................42 7) CONCLUSIONS ...............................................................................................................................................45 8) RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................................49 9. ANNEXES .........................................................................................................................................................54 1 UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH DATA ............................................................................................................ 58 2. UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH USE OF SCENARIOS 58 2.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................................ 58 3. UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE USE OF IMPACT MODELS....................................................................... 60
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January, 2009 Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha 5. SUMMARY OF THE SUDANS FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS REPORT ........................72 5.1 BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................................................72 5.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE SUDAN'S NC ........................................................................................................72 5.3 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT.........................................................................................74 5.3.1 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................................75 5.3.2 USE OF SCENARIOS .................................................................................................................................76 5.3.3 V&A ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY PRODUCTION ............................76 5.3.4 WATER RESOURCES ....................................................................................................................................... 78 5.3.5 HUMAN HEALTH ....................................................................................................................................79 5.7. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES/ WHAT IS NEEDED TO IMPROVE THE UTILITY OF FNC? .......................................80 6. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE-RELATED INITIATIVES (SEE TABLE 4 FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF RELATED INITIATIVES) .................................................................................................................81 6.1 AIACC-AF14 ...................................................................................................................................................81 6.2 SUDAN NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN OF ACTION (NAPA) ........................................................................81 7. REGIONAL INITIATIVES .............................................................................................................................82 ANNEX (16) ...........................................................................................................................................................84 8. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................84 ANNEX (18) ...........................................................................................................................................................94 TABLE (4) LIST OF CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED INITIATIVES IN SUDAN ...................................94
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Acknowledgements
This work was funded under DfID contract and TOR. The views expressed in this paper are the sole opinion of the author who takes full responsibility for errors and omissions.
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Executive Summary
This report aims to provide information on climate change impacts and adaptation in Sudan, based on the findings of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Study under the Sudan's 1st.. National Communication (2003), The Sudan AIACC1-AF 14 project (Environmental Strategies to Increase Community's Resilience to the Impacts of Climate Change) and the National Adaptation Program of Actions (NAPA). It also aimed at reviewing other relevant literature and reports from local regional an international sources on Sudan, in addition to post 2003 reports in Africa focusing e.g. on IPCCAR4, and TAR Climatic pressures Like many of the sub-Sahara countries, Sudan is a country of inherently fragile ecosystems, high climatic variability, frequent droughts and floods and ongoing desertification. Climatic records and literature pointed out the fact that historically Sudan has faced a number of climate extremes that have increased the fragility of its ecosystems and in turn livelihoods. Of its diverse ecological zones, more than half the country can be classified as desert or semi-desert, with another quarter, arid savannah; much of the countrys land area is considered highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.. Beside major drought events that have engulfed the whole country, Sudan has also experienced a series of localized droughts, often every two years, mainly in western Sudan in Kordofan and Darfur regions and parts of the central Sudan. These are widely known to have contributed to fuelling of the prolonged civil conflicts that have had a devastating effect on the rural population. The results extracted from climate scenarios for Kordofan region in Western Sudan indicated that average temperatures are expected to rise significantly relative to baseline expectations, e.g. by 2060 a warming is projected in the range of 1.5C to 3.1C, during August to 1.1C to 2.1C during the month of January. Projections of rainfall under future climate change conditions also shows sharp deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of the models show average rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season. However, there is still much uncertainty implicit in the choice of GCM and greenhouse gas forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the additional complications
Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors 1 5
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introduced by downscaling. These uncertainties need to be addressed through the use of regional circulation models and to develop national capacities in relation to generation and use of climate models. It is evident that, the effects of climate variability and change are real with impacts already affecting Sudan's ecosystems and human health. The negative impacts associated with climate change are also compounded by many factors, including widespread poverty, conflicts and human diseases. Under the previously-mentioned projected climate change, changes in temperature and precipitation could further affect the productive capacity of rainfed agriculture, and thus, in the security of the nations food supply. Sudan is thus faced with a pressing challenge of addressing the national priorities of food security, water supply, and public health.. The ability for long term projection as well as short term anticipation of how climate will change from one year to the next will lead to better management of agriculture, water supplies, and other resources. Moreover, by incorporating climate change into management decisions, human livelihood systems would become better adapted to the variability and changing rhythms of climate.
.Non- Climatic pressures Significant pressure are been excreted on Sudan's fragile urban environment resulting from a rapidly growing urban population in the absence of national land use planning and development, weak infrastructures and increasing un-employment and poverty rates. Furthermore, the increasing rural-urban migration resulted in abandoning of agricultural land, declining agricultural productivity and threatening food security and rural livelihoods. This situation is exacerbated by the increasing number of IDPs due to civil strife and conflicts in the south and Darfur.
Key findings A range of risks associated with climate change are expected to affect the livelihoods of people in Sudan. These include both direct and indirect ones resulting from the rising temperature, the expected decrease in rainfall and related problems. The livelihoods of poor communities living in fragile environment are likely to be most affected by changes in the frequency of extreme climate events particularly floods, droughts and high temperatures.
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The increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall is expected to lower the quality of traditional rangelands, resulting in reduced productivity of pastures for grazing livestock. In addition, large areas of rainfed agricultural land would suffer these changes. A southward shift of the Gum arabic belt (Acacia senegal trees) has also been observed indicating a prevalence of a dryer condition northward. It is evident that many knowledge gaps exist in relation to projection of impacts in the different regions of the Sudan and the different sectors. This emphasized the need for further assessment of potential impacts on e.g. irrigated agriculture, urban and rural livelihoods as well as for identifying options to decrease vulnerability to climate change in a holistic and integrated manner.
Climate change vulnerability analysis Different national and regional V&A studies in Sudan and Africa (UNFCCC, 2006, IPCC, 2007). 1st.National communication and the Sudan's National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) study (NAPA, 2007), have shed light on the link between climate and livelihoods in Sudan. They have also identified water resources, food security and human health as major climate change-related concerns for the country. The First National Communications of Sudan (NC, 2003) offers a more detailed picture of local vulnerability, using future scenarios of temperature and precipitation to model impacts on agriculture. It represented the first attempt to explore the relation between the observed impacts on natural and human systems and past and current climate variability, as well as exploring the potential impacts of future climate change on the different sectors over one of the most important regions of Sudan.-Kordofan- as an area depending mainly on rainfed agriculture, with the traditional farmers and pastoralists being the most vulnerable and the least resilient groups to climate-related variability and shocks In this key agricultural region, production of sorghum and millet food crops - critical to food security - was found to decline significantly by the years 2030 and 2060.2 Clearly, both the challenges and the urgency to identify adaptation options for reducing adverse effects, highlight the linkages between the impacts on different natural resources sectors and other environmental, socio-economic consequences of climate change.
Government of Sudan (forthcoming) (2002) First National Communications under the UNFCCC. 7
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Some studies projected a reduction of Nile water flows by as much as twenty five percent from climate change over the next twenty to forty years. In such case, serious security implications .could be expected on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation scheme (one of the largest in Africa) in central Sudan, and the Nile Reverie agriculture in the Northern states of Sudan.. Scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with
economic development and increases in population, may also trigger conflict between the different countries sharing the basin. The growing threat to vulnerable communities is particularly vital in the face of declining development assistance. Responses by governments and organizations to climate variability have tended to be reactive in nature, and the types of options considered have tended to depend on relief and post disaster mitigation rather than planned adaptation measures. It is found that inspite, of more than 20 years of relief and emergency food in the region of eastern Sudan, still the region faces a very high malnutrition rates (the highest in the country) indicating a lack of real improvement in the state of chronic livelihoods vulnerability that characterizes peoples of the regionparticularly pastoralists. It also indicates that the provision of free food aid is not an adequate strategy to address the needs either of the refugees, or of the other vulnerable communities. Local community groups started to view this approach as unsustainable, undermined their traditional coping capacity and contributed to the creation of relief dependent groups highlighting the needs for adopting a more developmental approach.
The increasing climate variability and change (drought and land degradation), and the consequent impact on the overall agricultural productivity and food security resulted in serious competition over the resources and conflicts which have mostly been triggered by resource- related rivals and disputes over water and fodder, cattle theft, access to land, and grazing fields. It is moreover, obvious that the on-going conflict in Darfur is increasingly impacting food supply and access to food insecure areas in the region. The result is more migration and displacements. A situation that is expected to worsen under climate change, triggering a more movement across the country and between boundaries.
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Coping capacity A number of studies revealed that some options (coping strategies) proved successful in increasing the adaptive capacity of the local communities in the face of climate variability. They have also contributed to improving their abilities to manage their livelihood assets and gaining a number of positive and tangible outcomes. The options identified include;
improved water harvesting and storage, diversification of livelihoods, creation of alternative income sources, increased savings and purchasing power, better grain production and storage facility, and access to markets. The findings from different adaptation studies e.g. AIACC study could help influence Sudans key decision-makers toward adopting practical means of adaptation to adverse climatic conditions mainly drought- and demonstrate the essence of integrating climate adaptation with broader development policies. However, a more integrated approach is needed if these options for addressing climate change impacts are to be integrated with other national and sectoral development policies and work programmes
Climate prediction and early warning: In the past 20 years considerable progress has been made in improving systems for providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events, which allows timely action to be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is also a need for information systems to support longer-term risk assessment and monitoring. Many gaps related to the accessibility, content, language and format of information have been identified and need to be addressed. There is also a need to improve the preparedness and ability to response in a more timely manner.
Recommendations There is an urgent need to address current vulnerability to climate variability in Sudan. Policy makers from national governments and donor organizations should not to be discouraged by the many uncertainties linked to projections of future climatic changes. Practical actions are urgently needed to address emerging adaptation needs of vulnerable communities and sectors. Actions to be implemented should support a broad-based resilience building with no-regret interventions. Climate variability and change need to be factored into all aspects of development planning, by government and donor organizations. This would contribute to achievement of societal and
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environmental .resilience as well as the achievement of important sustainable development goals (e.g. MDGs). It is also important to involve different stakeholders in all efforts and programs aiming at addressing climate change impacts and adaptation at the different levels. Of particular importance is the facilitation of NGOs participation in national and international climate change activities, policy forums, education and training, and dissemination of public information. A new policy is required by donor communities and relief organizations for disaster mitigation and for tackling recurrent food emergencies through linking relief resources with development interventions. Reducing peoples vulnerability to expected climatic hazards and to increase their coping capacity should be considered as one of the main objectives of any development planning. The direct link between resource use, climate variability and conflicts calls for strategies that aim at achieving peace and security through tackling the root causes and addressing environmental and social pressures instead of the ineffective military solutions that only deals with the symptoms and disregards the many contributing factors. One way to achieve a sustained stability could be through factoring in climate change implications into conflict resolution and peace building processes Efforts should also be made to create an enabling environment for a more targeted regional and international cooperation in climate-related transboundary issues e.g. the increasing pressure on water resources calls for the development of international cooperative mechanisms to manage shared water resources such as. the Nile Basin Initiative. Climate variability and change could trigger additional resource-based conflicts and disputes. This could adversely impact the number and distribution of refugees and Infernally Displaced People (IDPs), the delivery of humanitarian assistance as well as any proposed new recovery and development programmes. It is therefore, important to integrate climate change into multi-donor planning processes such as UN Workplan / (UN, 2007), and partners in Sudan MDTF- WFP. Efforts need to be made to disseminate available information on potential adaptation options identified under different climate change- related studies. Practical adaptation options successful experiences could then be replicated/ up-scaled to other regions of the country particularly highly vulnerable poverty-laden parts.
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There is a need for national governments and donor organizations to adopt a coordinated risk assessment approach, that assess the risk, identify the vulnerability and develops a longer term strategy that incorporate disaster prevention and management in the development planning process rather than simply reacts to offset negative impacts after they occur.
Given the intimate link between climate and sustainable development, there is a need to improve seasonal forecasting on time scales from months to a year and the provision of probabilistic climate information. Moreover there is a need to broaden the public understanding of climate change (impacts and responses) in Sudan, and to provide adequate resources and expertise in handling climate issues within the country. It is equally important to improve the technical capacity of national institutions -producers and usersof climatic forecasts and early warning information, in order to enhance the output, uptake, and use of climate products. Additionally, there is a need to develop an improved system of information and product dissemination and feedback between the national, sub-regional and regional partners.
Resources are needed to address the methodology and data gaps identified by previous assessments and studies, and to develop the technical capacity and skills necessary to undertake vulnerability and adaptation assessment using sophisticated modeling and remote sensing techniques. Special emphasis should be given to these important research areas on economic implications of climatic impacts as well as and evaluation of adaptation options in terms of e.g., cost- effectiveness, applicability and accessibility.
Financial and technical support is needed for human as well as institutional capacity building to access international funds though e.g. preparation of fundable proposals that could attract donors' investments in climate change projects.
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1 State of Environment in Sudan

Sudan has a total area of approximately 2,505,810 square kilometers (967,499 sq mi), including desert and water bodies.), making it the largest country on the continent of Africa. This area lies between 4-22N and 22- 36E. The span over 18 degrees of latitude has given Sudan its characteristic variety of environments, hence diverse ecosystem and biological life. It is endowed with vast natural resources extending from desert in the north to tropical rain forest in the South. The country borders the Red Sea, Eritrea and Ethiopia to the east; Kenya, Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo to the south; the Central Africa Republic and Chad to the west; and Libya and Egypt to the north. The land area is comprised primarily of flat plains, rising in the East and West to mountain ranges, with the Nile River and its tributaries comprising most of the hydrology of the country. (See annex 9 map of Sudan). Water resources is one of the most critical issue in many parts of the country specially the Western and Eastern parts. More than 40%, of the people suffers from a shortage of good quality water for drinking, and sufficient quantity for farming. This water deficiency is the result of natural factors such as erratic rainfall and drought as well as lack of rural development and consequently a key driver for poverty, poor health and rural-urban migration. The government development project in the water sector focused on exploitation of ground water through artesian wells and the utilization of rivers water through the
establishment of large scale dams. Both programs need a systematic evaluation to ensure that this development is environmentally sustainable and the impacts on the livelihoods of local communities are taken into consideration. Climatic records and literature pointed out the fact that historically Sudan has faced a number of climate extremes that have increased the fragility of its ecosystems and in turn livelihoods. The climatic variability has been particularly evident in the wide fluctuations in precipitation patterns and other related environmental hazards that prevailed over the past several decades leading to soil erosion and desertification problems. . Severe droughts have already lead to serious degradation in the arid land of northern Sudan, estimated at fifty one percent (about 1,259,440 square kilometers)3 between latitude 10 to 18 degrees north. This zone is characterized by extreme arid conditions continuously fed by
Sudan National Action Plan to Combat Desertification (SNAP), p. 15 12
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recurrent drought, land degradation, deforestation, soil nutrient loss. This was illustrated by a study conducted by the National Drought and Desertification Unit (NDDU), which showed a gradual shift of the rainfall isohyets during the period 1930-1990 from north to south, indicating the southward expansion of arid condition and the subsequent decline in crop production and natural vegetation cover (forests and rangeland), (NDDU, 2006). The severity of impacts resulting from these climate-related incidents could also be attributed to the multiplied effect of many other non-climatic factors, including the general, low level of economic development, and the lack of alternative income generating opportunities especially for rural people who largely depends on natural resources for their livelihoods, in addition to the lack of adapted technologies (Osman-Elasha, 2007). Other human-induced vulnerability includes; the poor management and over exploitation of the natural resources, institutional and policy failure. With the main drivers being; the accelerated population growth, rural poverty, insufficient knowledge and awareness of environmental issues; disruption of socioeconomic systems and the increasing number of refugees and IDPS due to past and on-going conflicts. In many areas of Sudan forests resources have been severely depleted, due to heavy dependence on fuelwood, charcoal and log timber in addition to expansion of mechanized agriculture. Deforestation rates across the country have been calculated at greater than 1.8% per annum and cumulative losses exceed 70% in central, north and east Sudan. The net result is large-scale deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion. These factors have contributed to rural poverty in the marginal dry-land areas leading to large scale migration Without major actions on halting the wave of degradation and restoring the productivity of the land, the natural resource base will simply continue to deteriorate whilst demands grows. If this occurs, much of the Sudan would be expected to face a state of chronic poverty and conflicts, such as the one occurring now in Darfur. (HCENR/UNEP, 2007). Agriculture in Sudan is a combination of subsistent farming and production of cash crops. The latter is generally characterized as market-oriented of irrigated or rainfed large scale farms. Agricultural production remains the country's most important sector, accounting for an output of more than 70% of all non-oil exports over 2001-2005 periods. With around 32 million feddans of arable land (4.4 million fed irrigated), the sector provides employment for approximately 80% of the work force and contributing to 39% of GDP. Rainfed farming
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accounts for 70 % of all agriculture, farming basically based on shifting cultivation and animal husbandry. The rainfed sector is characterized by low productivity and vulnerability to climate variability. This vulnerability is expected to adversely affect all prospects for future food security. With more than 137 million animal heads, livestock represent an important component of the agricultural sector. Livestock production is mainly based on traditional pastoral systems (90 percent of the livestock in the country belong to the traditional pastoral production systems). Pastoral societies particularly in western Sudan have always been relatively vulnerable climate variability particularly erratic rainfall and drought which frequently lead to big losses on their animals and subsequently their livelihoods. Traditionally, those pasturalists stick to some social values and norms which give more appreciation and respect to people with large number of animals. This repeatedly particularly during periods of good rainy season- has resulted in increasing livestock population beyond the carrying capacity of the pasture land. The resultant land degradation and desertification have commonly triggered competition between pastoralists and farmers over the already declining resources, which in many times had turned into local disputes and conflicts. The conflicts, drought and rural poverty had created a huge number of displaced people, totaling approximately five million. This have created a range of environmental impacts including the generation of random settlements and urban slums, water shortage, lack of basic services, environmental sanitation problems, deforestation and environmental degradation surrounding settlements and tree removal leading to deforestation. 94% of Sudans population is considered below the poverty line. The human Poverty Index (HPI) value for Sudan is 32.4%, ranks the 59th among 103 developing countries for which the index has been calculated.4 (Yale, 2005). Liberalization of the economy without the necessary social safety nets is blamed for this high level of poverty. This was further justified by (Bior, 2000), who noted that the fruit of economic growth has benefited only a few minority leaving the majority languishing in poverty. However, poverty has always been linked to climate-related factors particularly drought, a fact documented in both historical and contemporary records of famines in Sudan and other neighbouring countries. The records explained that environmentally degraded areas, where the poor mostly live have always been
4
Human Development Report 1997 introduced the human poverty index (HPI), which focuses on the proportion of people below a threshold level in basic dimensions of human development - living a long and healthy life, having access to education, and a decent standard of living, much as the poverty headcount measures the proportion of people below a certain income level. The HPI-1 measures human poverty in developing countries
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the most vulnerable areas to natural disasters, particularly droughts, sand storms and crop failures, and their subsequent impacts which range from hunger to severe famine and death. It worth mentioning here that, many other non-climatic factors had persistently contributed to increasing the vulnerability and suffering of people living in these areas, including; the low coping capacity, poor livelihood capitals, limited access to modern agricultural inputs and alternative income sources. A study conducted by (Ali., (2002), noted that to achieve the MDG on poverty Sudan's GDP needs to grow by an annual rate of 7.2 per cent, requiring an investment rate ranging from 35% to 42% of GDP. It further concluded that a reasonable horizon for reducing Sudan's poverty by half would be 28 years starting from 2001, i.e. almost double the horizon implied by the MDGs. According to the Environment Protection Law, 2001, all newly proposed development project are mandated to undertake an environmental impact assessment (EIA). However, this is not always the case as many large development projects tend to escape this process, specially those which have the political support and government blessing (e.g. oil exploration and refining), and consequently, the social and environmental impacts of such investment are not usually considered. Moreover, and due to many factors including technical, institutional, and financial constraints, the reinforcement of the law is still constrained.
2. Current scientific knowledge

2.1 Current variability and vulnerability to variability Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change as the majority of its land is quite vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation as well as to extreme climatic conditions such as floods and droughts that have occurred throughout its recorded history. The 2nd. Half of the 19th. Century has particularly witnessed a pattern of declining rainfall culminating in the wide-spread 83-84s drought. However, the observed declining trends of rainfall over Sudan could be attributed to many factors ranging from an irregular pattern of climate variability, occurring naturally or due to human induced factors -e.g. over exploitation of natural resources- to a strong signal of global and regional climatic changes.
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Climate variability in Sudan mainly drought- have tended to concentrate in the arid and semi-arid zones of the west and northeast, where the rainfall is erratic, agricultural environment is marginal, the resource base poor, and the income and asset base of the population are thin and variable (Osman, 2007). The country's inherent vulnerability may best be captured by the fact that more than 70% of its population is directly dependant on climate sensitive resources for their living with their food security mainly determined by rainfall. Between 1961 and 1998, a number of drought episodes have inflicted Sudan with varying severity and impacts. The most severe droughts have always known by their devastating impacts on people's livelihood as well as their wide scars in the face Sudan's economy. Examples are the droughts of the early mid 1970s and ten years later of the early mid 1980s, which have brought about a number of strikingly negative impacts, ranging from the loss of lives and property to the break down of social fabric and traditional tribal structures, and ultimately the mass migration of rural population to urban areas. Table 1 below shows the vulnerability situation in the different geographical areas of Sudan.
Beside major drought events that have engulfed the whole country, Sudan has also experienced a series of localized droughts, often every two years, mainly in western Sudan in Kordofan and Darfur regions and parts of the central Sudan. The meteorological records show an increased degree of variability over these particular parts. For example, in western Sudan variability of annual rainfall increased from 16 percent in the 1960s to 21 percent in the 1970s and 32 percent in the.80s. These observed changes could likely be attributed to the relatively slight global warming of the late 20th century, (IPCC 2001b). Due to the high vulnerability of these regions, in many cases drought has been followed by famine. The two greatest famines since 1684, when the historical record begins, are those of 1888-89 and 1984-85. Both were triggered by consecutive years of poor rain that led to massive crop. Failure. (See annex 2 and annex 7 for rainfall variability).
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Table (1)
Vulnerability situation and priority areas for interventions across Sudan (2007)
Source: Adapted from WFP, 2006 Sudan Annual Needs Assessment/ Food Security Report and a meeting with WFP staff (annex 11 ) Area Climate related Climate change Other factors contributing to Priority areas for stress trend/trajectory vulnerability Interventions (Gov or NGO) A sub-Sahara Climate change is Chronic war over the last century National development Countrycountry which is expected to have a High dependency on agricultural programmes wide highly negative impact on major sector with unstable performance. Awareness on climate vulnerable to economic sectors and Wide-spread poverty(more than change impacts climate systems exacerbating 50%of the population have income Integration of Climate variability and the vulnerability of the below the poverty thresholdofUS$1.8 change into key change whole country and calls per day (WFP, 2006) national programmes for immediate actions to Large outstanding debt and limited such as roads, health improve adaptation access to concessional financing (units, vaccination (IMF estimated the debt at $27 etc..) billion) Climate Although no climate Long term war and lack of security Basic services Southern variabilityprojection has been Weak institutional structures e.g. no health, education, Sudan shifts between developed for S. Sudan evidence of local level or Civil provision of water droughts and but the projection for Sub- society organizations risks of further supply esp. in newly floods Sahara Africa indicates a conflict from pressures. populated villages. likely increased frequency Returnee influx in the context of the Support the return of extreme climatic peace agreement (livelihoods) of the events ( drought and Lack of infrastructure- particularly IDPs to their original floods) (IPCC, 2007) transport villages which will largely High transaction costs for trade from Agric. And veterinary hamper the on-going surplus to deficit areas services development programs , Localized crop failures in Northern causing additional Bahr-el Ghazal and Eastern suffering to the people, Equatorial more displacement Potentially increased Lord Resistance ,famines and the need for Army (LRA) activities more relief . Chronic conflicts over natural Humanitarian Darfur Drying trend The declining rainfall resources operations camp over decades, trend is projected to Scarce sources of water resources management and food localized continue in the Western Declining human health aid droughts and parts of Sudan (Darfur Heavy pressure on degraded Provision of basic flooding and Kordofan) with landscapes including pasture, land, services (water, health increasing variability. water, fuelwood and education) Hence, further Risks of vector borne disease deterioration of people's malaria / livelihoods, impairing Further escalation in the conflict peace efforts and have a Decline in funds for humanitarian -ve impact on the long assistance term development plans Risk of cross-boarder conflicts by government and Lower cereal harvest international community. Further curtailment of access /mobility Potential increase in camp based population 17
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Eastern States (Kassala and Red Sea States) Erratic rainfall Frequent drying Increased dust storms (Hababay) Frequent floods from El Gash River in Kassala Current climate variability is expected to continue in the future this coincide with the IPCC findings which indicates the increasing probability of extreme climatic conditions in terms of frequency, intensity and duration (IPCC, 2007). The heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands and Gash floods during this year is a live picture of the vulnerability of this region to climatic changes.

Chronic food insecurity due to serious structural failure- Red Sea State Limited livelihood options for IDPs and weak service infrastructure chronic poverty spread of TB diseases particularly among children Politically charged and volatile conditions in Hoomesh KoreibPotential refugee influx due to tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia (currently Kassala state host 75000 Eritrean refugees and the Red Sea host 95000 IDPs. Decline in urban labour employment opportunities due to mechanization in Port Sudan - Higher consumer prices due to inflammatory effect and unstable market difficulties in procurement and logistics of supply Increased food insecurity (seasonality), Heavy dependence on rainfall (agric.& pasture) IDPs from Bahr Alghazal State Decreased numbers of livestock due to distress sales and animal diseases Depleting household assets, loss of traditional income sources. Increased poverty Security problem in the south west (neighboring Darfur High % of out migration and women headed households improved access to water , food aid and improved security Rehabilitation of villages, improved access to health and education services and restoration of livelihoods. Agricultural inputs and general development programming
North Kordofan
Arid land erratic distribution of rain Repeated localized droughts, Pest and crop diseases
The results of the climate and socio-economic scenarios, indicated that the Kordofan regions is going to experience more climate variability e.g. erratic rainfall, frequent droughts and dust storms ( see Annex 15 summary of the NC and annex 18)- This would have severe implication on important sectors such as the water, agriculture and pastures. Same as above
Food aid (WFP) Water and sanitation Human health service (esp. child and maternity health) Basic education services Veterinary services Agricultural and pasture extension Regular monitoring of the food security situation
Southern Kordofan
Climate variability localized recurrent drought
Conflict zone- Nuba mountain for more than two decades High percent of women-headed households High percent of IDPs Reduction of livestock from raiding
Food aid Health services and water sanitation Education facilities Water points along the migratory routes of livestock Restocking of livestock Veterinary services Provision of agric. Inputs Provision of water in newly populated areas Basic education and health services Veterinary services Health services and
Abyei
Blue Nile
Occasional dryness Bird attacks for sorghum fields Insect infestation on water melon fields Localized heavy
Current climate variability is expected to continue in the future increasing probability of extreme climatic conditions in terms of frequency, intensity and duration (IPCC, 2007). Increasing variability is
Conflict over land and pasture between the Messeria and Dinka tribes Returnee influx in the context of the peace agreement Potential conflict associated with delimitation of boarders and right issues- nomadic and sedentary Host 165,000 IDPs and refugees 18
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rains expected over the region of East Africa including Ethiopian highlands- this will lead to increasing number of IDP and refugees. Increasing climate variability in different parts of Sudan would negatively impact Khartoum leading to more disasters (floods, contamination, health problems, etc.. and more influxes of IDPs. The projected increase in temperature and the irratic pattern of Nile water levels would negatively impact the crop production (wheat, beans and dates)-The expected variation of the Nile flow could also increase the frequency of floods over the villages and islands. Livestock theft/looting Spread of epidemics e.g. lechmania and hepatitis

vaccination Education Water sanitation Agricultural extension and veterinary services Planning of IDPs settlements and the provision of : Health services and vaccination Education Water sanitation
Khartoum
Arid land Erratic rainfall Seasonal floods
Encroachment of urban settlement over flood-prone areas and agricultural land along the Nile Expansion of shanty towns and settlements Increasing number of refugees and IDPs
Northern States(El Neil and Northern States)
Repeated localized floods Frequent sand storms and sand encroachment over fertile soil
food insecurity Out migration due to limited livelihood options Lack of basic health service lack of landuse plan Erosion of the Nile Bank (hadam)
Rehabilitation of villages, improved access to health and education services and restoration of livelihoods. Agricultural inputs and general development programming - Flood control
2.2 Projected climate change Future changes in Sudan's climate variables (rainfall and temperature) still need to be modelled, as very few related assessments have been conducted so far. According to Hulme, 1989) results obtained from a range of future climate scenarios revealed that only one of a total of ten developed scenarios indicated a regenerated rainfall, the other nine scenarios are heavily weighted towards either maintenance of the current declining trends in rainfall or else a further decline, (see annex 2 for the sensitivity to rainfall). He concluded by disclosing that "in view of this output and until our understanding of current drought mechanisms and modelling of the effects of global warming improves, it would seem prudent for Sudan to assume a continuation of the current depleted rainfall resource into the twenty-first century "(Mike Hulme, 1989). Undertaking impact assessments (in relation to agriculture, water and malaria) is contingent on available climate- scale scenarios at time and space scales of relevance to the regional levels. The Global Climate Models (GCMs) is considered as the principal tools for deriving climate change scenarios. Sudan employed the scenario approach in the V&A assessment conducted under the 1st. National Communication (HCENR, 2003). The assessment covered Kordofan region in the western part of Sudan. This region being part of Africa Sahel could be considered
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as representative to most of the arid areas of Sudan (more than 70%). It is characterized by highly arid climate which is already vulnerable to natural variability and extreme climate e.g. erratic rainfall and frequent dust storms. The vulnerability of the region is illustrated mainly by using climate scenario analyses. Two climate change projections were considered under the impact assessment; one with the expected climate change likely to take place by the year 2030 and the other which is likely to occur by the year 2060. This approach serves to provide an initial overview of the potential climate change in the region. The results extracted from climate scenarios indicated that average temperatures are expected to rise significantly relative to baseline expectations. By 2060, projected warming ranges from 1.5C to 3.1C, during August to 1.1C to 2.1C during the month of January. Projections of rainfall under future climate change conditions also shows sharp deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of the models show average rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season.
Using FAO Impact Model, the simulation tested several GCM scenarios. The results revealed that, drought would become more pronounced with a number of impacts on livelihood systems projected. (See the table below for a summary of projected climate change scenarios). However, it is evident that for climate change issues, there is still much uncertainty implicit in the choice of GCM and greenhouse gas forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the additional complications introduced by downscaling. It is important to address this issue of uncertainty through the use of regional circulation models and to develop national capacities in relation to generation and use of climate models. There is also a need to develop climate change scenarios for the different regions of Sudan, and to making climate projections readily available to those who have need of them for planning purposes.
Projected climate
change as derived from different scenario

Future climate change Future climate scenarios Certainty level for the 2060 for the 2030s 0.8 To 1.4 in Elobied 1.1 to 3.0 in Elobied using High confidence, good using GDFL and GDFL and HADCM2 resp. agreement between HADCM2 resp. climate models. Seasonal differences: e.g ElObied 12 ml increase in during August to 6 ml decrease in Sept. (GDFL) 5 - Seasonal differences: e.g Medium confidence, in ElObied 20 ml increase medium agreement bet. during August to 7 ml Climate models t decrease in July and 10 ml decrease in Sept. (GDFL)
Climate parameter
Increasing temperatures
Change precipitation
See the figure below 5 20
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Extreme events Increasing Drought Fluctuations More erratic rainfall and rainfall drought conditions in

Medium confidence
Projected average monthly precipitation difference at El Obeid in 2030 from selected GCMs
15
HADCM2-IS92A
12
GFDL-IS92A BMRC-IS92A
P (mm/month)
0 JAN -3 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
-6
-9
-12
-15
Based on the above scenarios of projected climatic changes, a range of associated risks are expected to affect the livelihoods of people in Sudan. These include both direct and indirect ones resulting from the rising temperature, the expected decrease in rainfall and related problems. The combination of increasing water scarcity and rising temperatures will affect sectors of the economy that are particularly dependent on ecosystem goods and services, for example agriculture, forestry and livestock, lowering peoples vulnerability6. The livelihoods of poor communities living in fragile environment are likely to be most affected by changes in the frequency of extreme climate events particularly floods, droughts and high temperatures. Important services such as electricity (hydro-power generation) will also be affected to some degree by erratic rainfall and drought. The duration of each drought event plays the most important role in characterizing its hazard level, due to the fact that droughts develop slowly and may last over a period of many years. Moreover, drought could have very severe secondary impacts including, famine and health-related problems, conflicts and mass migration. A number of impact studies conducted in Sudan indicated that livelihoods of different stakeholder groups would be impacted at varying degrees by climate variability and
Vulnerability is defined as the people's exposure to hazard and their susceptibility to its impacts which results from climate variability and change. It is therefore, a function of the impacts' magnitude and capacity to anticipate, cope with, and recover from hazard. (IPCC 2001a).. 21
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change (see table 2). UNDP, (2004). Figure (1) below shows the relative vulnerability to drought 1990-2000- with Sudan and Ethiopia being among the most vulnerable countries to its impacts.
Figure (1) the relative vulnerability to drought 1990-2000 Source: UNEP-GRID/Geneva
Furthermore, the studies emphasized the need for assessing the various impacts on livelihoods as well as identifying options to decrease vulnerability to climate change in a holistic and integrated manner (HCENR, 2003, AIACC-AF14, 2006).
Examining Sudan's vulnerability within the context of the Africa Sahel, it is also evident that the projected high variation of rainfall coupled with warming and the absence of irrigation would have a negative implications on water supplies and demands and impacts on the irrigated and rainfed agriculture. The implications expected under such regional and national climate scenarios include; further exposure of the whole region to high risks of food insecurity and a prevalence of human diseases (NC, 2003, Barton D. and Morton
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J., 2003, IPCC, 2007). These issues have been highlighted as key vulnerability concerns in many V&A studies in Africa (UNFCCC, 2006, IPCC, 2007). They also concur with the results obtained from the Sudan's vulnerability and adaptation study under the 1st.National communication (see annex15 and annex 18 on technical gaps in the First National Communication) (HCENE, 2003), and are further supported by the Sudan's National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) study (NAPA, 2007). These studies have shed light on the link between climate and livelihoods in Sudan and have identified water resources, food security and human health as major climate change-related issues for the country. They highlighted the urgent need to develop measures that address sectorspecific problems by the government, international and regional organizations. In this respect it is important to note that, addressing the specific needs of the most vulnerable groups was one of the main objectives of the NAPA. Considering the limited ability of the identified vulnerable groups to cope with the expected adverse effects of climatic changes, they have special need for urgent assistance and a targeted support that would enable them maintains their livelihoods.
3) Physical and Socio Economic Impacts & implications

3.1 Agriculture and food security The Agricultural sector including forestry and livestock sectors are largely influenced by climatic variability and change. Analyses of agricultural vulnerability indicate that the key attributes of climate change are those related to climatic variability, including the frequency of non-normal conditions (Smit et al. 2000). It also indicate that the productivity of agriculture is dependent upon temperatures, the length of the growing season, available soil moisture and climate extremes such as droughts, dust storms and floods. Livestock are particularly sensitive to water availability, temperature, and access to pasture. The observed climatic change in Eastern Africa including Sudan (increased temperature and decrease precipitation) e.g. from 1996-2003 has been accompanied by a decline in the long-cycle crops (e.g., slowly maturing varieties of sorghum and maize) across most of eastern Africa, thereby impacting the available food supply (Funk et al., 2005). Temperature increases have also stressed livestock, leading to reductions in milk production and affecting their health.
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Due to Sudan's inherently climate sensitive agricultural systems, climate variability and change have always affected its agricultural production. Under future climate change and consequently increasing variability, further declining of agricultural productivity would be expected. This has been illustrated by the climate change models for Kordofan State in Western Sudan which showed an unfavourable precipitation scenario (large reductions in precipitation and an increase in temperature (see annex15 in summary of NC, 2003 and annex 18 on technical gaps in the First National Communication). In general terms, this would severely impact the rainfed agriculture- upon which 70% of the population depends-. The study indicated a southward shift in moist agro climatic zones, indicating a shrinking area of crop production coupled with a decline in food crop yield of up to 82% for sorghum and up to 76% for millet. This would reflect negatively on in the availability of food, leading more people to suffer from food insecurity. The increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall will also lower the quality of traditional rangelands, resulting in reduced productivity of pastures for grazing livestock. In addition, large areas of forest land would suffer from the impact brought about by the interaction between temperature and water shortages. It is evident that some biological effects of climate change are already apparent in Sudan, notable is the southward shifts of the Gum arabic belt (extending between 10-14o across Sudan), indicating a prevalence of a dryer condition northward (HCENR, 2003).
In a recent FAO Food Prospect Report, (2007) Sudan was put under the list of countries in crisis, requiring external assistance i.e. countries that are expected to lack the basic resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. In this list the food crises are nearly always attributed to a combination of factors. Moreover, crisis here was characterized as severe localized food insecurity. This is mainly due to the influx of refugees, a concentration of internally displaced persons (see annex 10), as well as areas with combinations of crop failure and deep poverty. (Table 2 shows the number of people in need of food aid in 2007).
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Table (2) Planned number of people to receive food aid in Eastern Africa (As of March 2007)
Country Ethiopia Sudan Somalia Kenya Uganda Djibouti Number of people 8.6 million of which 7.3 million chronic food insecure people 4.6 million (mainly Darfur and Southern Sudan) 1.125 million (expected to increase with new displacements) 3.1 million (including 280,000 Somali and Sudanese refugees) 2.3 million (including IDPs, refugees and vulnerable people) 70,000
Adapted from WWF, 2006 In Eastern region of Sudan, pastoralist groups - (mainly Beja) - have traditionally been practicing mobile pastoralism as a response measure to the regions low and erratic rainfall, the low biological productivity of the soil and cyclical droughts. Over the years these groups have developed flexible responses to address the complexity and the fragility of their environment in ways that are respectful to the natural resource base. However, the increasing frequency and intensity of drought intensified by a set of external forces has progressively undermined the capacity of these groups to survive in this difficult environment (Morton, 1993). The increased inability of pastoralists, particularly the Beja, to cope with and recover from climatic crises was one of the main reasons that the drought that hit the region in the mid-1980s degenerated into a famine of disastrous proportions. Added to that the lack of adequate policies and of investment in services and infrastructure in those areas which have also hampered people's capacities to manage livelihoods in the prevailing challenging environmental conditions.
Drawing on material from recent collection of papers on food security, nutrition, and livelihoods in Sudan. In the special issue of Disasters Journal, edited by faculty at the Feinstein International Center with the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University. It was indicated that despite more than 20 years relief and emergency food in this region of eastern Sudan, still the region faces a very high malnutrition rates (the highest in the country) indicating a lack of real improvement in the chronic livelihoods vulnerability that affects people in the regionparticularly pastoralists (P. Sara, 2006). It has then become increasingly apparent that the provision of free food aid
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is not an adequate strategy to address the needs either of the refugees, or of the other vulnerable communities in eastern Sudan. (Abdelatti, 2003). (See section 4.2 on relief versus development). This persuaded many of the agencies that had participated in the relief operation to become increasingly involved in development activities. In most areas the shift from relief to development interventions was preceded neither by rehabilitative measures aimed at reconstituting productive assets (e.g. livestock), nor by an in-depth analysis of the changes undergone by the Beja livelihoods system and an assessment of which coping or adaptive strategies might more effectively be reinforced. The increasing climate variability and change, and the consequent impact on the overall agricultural productivity and food security situation could be the spark that triggers a state of violence (Tearfund, 2007). Such a situation underlines the fact that the current crisis in Darfur is not only a political conflict but also a fight for increasingly scarce resources, including water and grazing lands. (Annex 8 on humanitarian activities in 2004). It is also obvious that the on-going conflict is additionally impacting the food supply, as insecurity remains a major factor in inhibiting access to food to conflict areas in Darfur regions. According to a report by WFP, 2006, currently, the most food insecure areas are those areas which were most affected by the war and where many impoverished displaced are now returning. (See annex 10 on refugees and IDPs). South Sudan is one of the most vulnerable areas regarding food security. Despite an apparently strong asset-base, pastoralist and agropastoralist communities in southern Sudan are among the most food insecure groups. Their vulnerability relates primarily to a long history of conflict (over nearly 200 years), resulting in a gradual erosion of traditional safety nets and social networks. Superimposed on the persistent conflict were repeated shocks such as droughts, crop pests and animal disease epidemics, and seasonal variations in food availability. The literature on pastoralism, drought and famine in the South doesn't only highlights the linkages between animals, rain and human hunger but also the disproportionate impact of drought on children. Catley A, et al, 2005, noted the fact that pastoralist children are particularly susceptible to interruptions in milk supply because they consume relatively more milk than adults. 3.2 Human health According to the (IPCC 2001a, IPCC, 2007), more extreme weather events, more floods, and more resulting property and ecosystem damage are expected world-wide. Increasing
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number of people are facing climate-related health problems with severe implications. More than a million people a year die from malaria, the majority being in Africa, in addition, 2 million annual deaths result from diarrhea, almost all in Africa and Asia (WHO 2004). The Climate Information for Development Report (GCOS, 2006), noted the high attention given by African scientists to the impacts of climate on nutritional status, economic performance, and diseases such as meningitis and malaria. It has also indicated that unusual rainfall patterns were associated with malaria epidemics among the vulnerable populations of the Sahel and that meningitis outbreak also had a relationship to climate. It is observed that in sub-Saharan Africa, malaria epidemics arise suddenly in mostly remote, disadvantaged settings without effective early warning systems. These findings underline the importance of application of climate information to provide early warning for malaria, cholera, bilharzias and meningitis epidemics. Other health-related vulnerability includes the impact of severe drought on water quantity and quality (diarrhea and cholera), subsequent food security problems and the resultant poor nutritional status of the population. The V&A study conducted in Kordofan on the potential impact of climate change on human health focused on malaria as the most widely-spread disease in Sudan. The assessment- concluded that the potential changes in temperature and precipitation anticipated under climate change would lead to increase in transmission potential, suggesting a change in the current distribution and intensity of malaria incidence in Kordofan as well as in many areas of Sudan e.g. Darfur (for more information see annex 15) . This link was further examined by Checchi F. et al, 2006, who reported that the combination of increased rainfall and higher temperature in desert-fringe areas would signal the beginning of an outbreak of malaria, while excessive rainfall beyond the historical seasonal average would signal the likelihood of an outbreak in arid and semiarid areas of Greater Darfur (the three states of Darfur -North, South and West Darfur). To address the increasing incidence of malaria in Darfur, a malaria preparedness and response plan was prepared by the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) of Sudan, in collaboration with the State Ministry of Health (SMoH) of the three Darfur states. The World Health Organization (WHO) is to provide technical oversight, advice and data management support for the operationalization of the plan in Greater Darfur (El
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Sakka H., 2005) (figure 2 below shows the major components of the malaria preparedness and response plan)
Fig (2) the major components of the malaria preparedness and response plan, (El Sakka H, 2005)
3.3 Water Resources and Nile Ecosystem Past and current challenges to water resources in Sudan have demonstrated the great influence of climate variability and change. A particular challenge for water resources management are extreme events, such as prolonged droughts which reduce water availability, or periodic extreme rainfall events, which result in extensive run-off and increase the risk of flooding.
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Rainfall projections for Western Sudan (Kordofan), generally indicate a decrease in the rainy season. The water deficit in Kordofan is predicted to worsen as a result of climate change in milestone years 2030 and 2060, as compared to the historical baseline (19611990). Interestingly, the decline in rainfall is only part of the story; the effect of rising temperatures and increased Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) may have the most significant impact on people's livelihoods. However, change for the other regions of Sudan is still uncertain due to lack of studies, but it is evident that climate change (e.g. rising temperature) would increase water demand while supply would decrease, highlighting the need to manage water in such a way to increase supply or reduce demand.
Climate change is also expected to influence water demand for irrigation and other uses. Some experts believe that serious threat exist regarding its impact over the next twenty to forty years expecting a reduction of Nile water flows by as much as twenty five percent. However, if the negative projections prove accurate, the basin is likely to experience profound environmental change with serious security implications. This is expected to have serious implications on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation scheme (one of the largest in Africa) in central Sudan, and the Nile Riverine agriculture in the Northern state (confined to a narrow strip of gerf 7 land on either side of the River Nile of the desert). Although the potential irrigable area in Sudan is estimated at 2.8 million hectare but only two third of it is currently utilized. In 2005 only one third was actually cultivated, due to a suite of factors e.g. poor irrigation and drainage infrastructure, accumulation of sediments into the canals and salinization problems. Climate change would exacerbate these pressures adding significant implications to this important sector.
Few other studies have recently attempted to evaluate the impacts of climate change on runoff in the Nile Basin. Conway, 2005, stated with a high confidence that temperature will rise but according to Hume et al, 2001 and 2003, there are disparities between models on rainfall predictions over both the Blue Nile and White Nile. The various mathematical, hydrological and theoretical models and assumptions have produced inconsistent results ranging from a fifty percent reduction in runoff in the Blue Nile Subbasin due to a twenty percent decrease in precipitation, to an increase in water runoff up to the year 2025. This differing assumptions have lead some experts to argue that what is
Fertile soil along the bank of the river 29
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lacking is not just the data and forecasts, but also the capacity in each basin state to analyze the available information and come out with solid conclusions (Yacob, 2005). Nevertheless, temperature rise will lead to greater loss through evaporation placing additional stress on water resources regardless of changes in rainfall. Nine climate scenarios showed decreases in Nile flows from zero to approximately 40 percent by 2025 (Strzepek et al, 2001). Such scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with economic development and increases in population, may trigger conflict between the different countries sharing the basin. Shiva (2002) describes a number of cases where competition over water resources and the displacement of populations as a result of dam building have led to conflict within nations. Where climate change places additional stress on water resources and encourages the building of dams to address increased water stress, such conflicts will be more likely to occur. Example of a related potential conflict is the planned heightening of the Khor Arbaat Dam in Eastern Sudan for the purpose of diverting more water for urban use in the capital city of Port Sudan to alleviate severe water shortage during summer time. The project is expected to reduce the volume of water spillover that supplies the Arbaat community. Potential adverse effects of reduced water supply to Arbaat include reduced cultivated area, displacement of families, spread and invasion of aggressive mesquite trees into fertile agricultural land, and reduced production of food for subsistence and marketing, i.e. inducing maladaptation.. Members of the Arbaat community are petitioning the government through traditional and religious leaders. (Abdelatti, 2003, Osman, 2006). On the other hand, some may argue that enhanced pressure on water resources may encourage the development of international cooperative mechanisms to manage shared water resources. An example is the Nile Basin Initiative, which is a multi-donor supported initiative led by GEF/WB. The initiative regards the regional coordination and cooperation as a basis for improved water resource management under the principle of benefit sharing. The essence of such an integrated regional management approach for shared ecosystems is gaining more national, regional and international attention with the consideration of the additional potential pressures arising from climate change.
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3.4 Implication for conflicts and migration trends Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change. A range of assessments have shown that many of African countries and communities are sensitive and vulnerable to extreme climate events, particularly drought which have continuously contributed to migration in Africa with one third of its people living in drought-prone areas (IPCC, 2007). Drought and conflict are often inextricably linked. These combined effects have been widely felt in many countries of the world, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where they pose the main threat to long-term food security and economic progress. Climate change is likely to lead to food deficits in these regions due to recurrent drought and crop failure. Scarce water and food had always triggered conflicts and civil wars which is one of the main reasons for mass migration and displacement. Migration is expected to intensify in the different regions of Africa with projected increases in the number of environmental refugees those who are exposed to climatic shocks, in addition to war refugees. The recent IPCC report highlighted the impacts of internal and across boarder migration as a response measure to climate induced stresses, and its severe resultant impacts e.g. escalating conflicts, more pressures on natural resources and loss of biodiversity (IPCC, 2007). According to FAO, 2005, repeated food emergencies are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of the affected countries (61 percent) are hosts to civil wars (see figure 4). A situation that reflects the limitation and inadequacy of the recovery and rehabilitation efforts for addressing the problem of chronic food insecurity and vulnerability to drought. Since livelihoods in this region depends mainly on the presence of natural pastures and rain water, then it is more likely that nomadic pastoralists will be heavily impacted, to the extent that they may be forced to undertake large scale movements and trans-boundary migrations which will eventually lead into conflict with settled communities, Magadza (2000).
Sudan had hosted refugees for the last three decades .from neighboring countries. Eastern Sudan used to be the main reception and camp centre for Eritrea and Ethiopian refugees. Sudan also provided asylum to a significant number of refugees from other countries in recent years, primarily from Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda.
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Estimates for 2005 indicate that
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approximately 147,000 refugees were officially recognized in Sudan. The International Displacement Monitoring Centre estimates that two million IDPs now live in Khartoum, accounts for an approximately 40 percent of Khartoums total population. The drought and land degradation followed by conflicts are considered the main factors leading to both migration and displacements. Consequently, this situation is expected to worsen under climate change with more movement across the country and between boundaries. The large influxes of refugees from neighbouring countries to Sudan could have a number of implications including the environmental impacts through indiscriminate clearing of trees for domestic energy and housing. While the increasing numbers of IDPs could lead to the expansion of urban slums and exert continued pressure on the provision of basic services such as safe water, education and health services, as well as threaten food security and increase the urban poverty. It is therefore, important that the organization and donor communities take the expected climate change impacts into consideration when drafting their country relief and development programs. Moreover, it should be considered a pre-requisite for the responsible government institutions to mainstream climate related concerns and implications into all the national plans and strategies. Fig (4) frequency and primary causes of food emergency: Source (FAO, 2007)
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Environmental resources are crucial to livelihoods and cultural identity of Darfur people, who used to maintain food self-sufficiency, except in unusually bad drought years. But, the current crisis of development combined with a history of ecological hardships, and severe famine episodes have excreted a massive pressure on the people and devastated their coping capacities Under such condition of high vulnerability, it becomes evident that any climate variability, in the form of erratic rainfall, short term or long term drought, could lead to a state of production failure leading to hunger and consequently conflicts between different land users (e.g. farmers and livestock herders). With the presence of free arms- evidenced in Darfur- this situation ended up in an armed violence and civil wars. (Fig 5 shows rain fall variability in ElFashir North Darfur). Jeffrey Sachs8 makes a clear connection between climate-induced drought and conflicts. He noted that climate change will increasingly pose security threats across the world, as it causes or exacerbates huge ecological challenges, among them, the looming worldwide water crisis. Taking Darfur as an example, he indicated that since the 1980s drought, Darfur suffered from extreme poverty, which is the undoubted origin of the present conflict in the region. Moreover, he urged the worlds governments to focus their resources to such underlying challenges, and suggests that all governments establish ministries of sustainable development (Sachs, 2006).
.A recent study aiming at developing a National Plan for Environmental Management in Post Conflict Sudan (HCENR/UNEP, 2007), reported that the connections between conflict and the environment in Sudan are both multifaceted and persistent and that historically, a small scale conflicts have mostly been triggered by resource- related rivals, which sometimes escalates into major conflicts. Causes for these conflicts include disputes over water and fodder, cattle theft, access to land, and grazing fields. Many of the conflicts were in part over the use of common and shared natural resources; these same resources are then further undermined by the conflict. The report emphasized the need for understanding the underling causes of historical and current conflicts in Sudan as an essential step towards addressing the chronic environmental problems as well as the resulting conflicts (HCENR/UNEP, 2007)..
Jeffrey Sachs is professor of Economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. 33
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Fig 6 below shows a comparison of the number of local conflicts attributed to competition over land and grazing to that attributed to other administrative or political causes.
Fig (5) shows a variation in rainfall with a declining trend during the same period of Fig (6). Source: Badi, 2005)
Rainfall in ElFashir 1930-2000

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1930-1939 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000
Years
Fig (6) causes of local conflicts in Darfur 1930-2000 Source: (HCENR/UNEP, 2007)
Causes of local conflicts in Darfur 19302000
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Grazing, water and land Adminstration and politics Causes of conflicts
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4) Adaptation Assessment
Reliant upon ecosystems that are, in many cases, fragile or degraded, the population of Sudan can ill afford the added challenge of increased ecological stress that climate change could bring. This makes adaptation essentially a priority area for Sudan. A vulnerability and adaptation assessment that have been conducted under the Sudan's 1st. National Communication provided a primary indication of the potential impacts of climate change on important sectors (water, agriculture and health). Some response measures have been identified as possible strategies for addressing climate change impacts (decreasing precipitation and rising temperature). They include: crop diversification and the use of drought-resistant varieties; rain water harvesting, conservation and management; public awareness; Government allocation of water use revenues for water infrastructure development, rehabilitation and equipment maintenance; Improved water utility and reduction of loss through introduction of water
conserving technologies in delivery systems and related research programs. water pricing and tariffs, incentives for high efficiency and penalties for wasted water;
Two other adaptation projects were undertaken to assess adaptation o AIACC-AF14 (for more details of the project see annex 6). o The National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) (for more details see Annex 16 )
Both presented an opportunity for Sudan to
undertake a bottom-up assessment of
adaptation and produce a set of highly prioritized coping strategies that could be developed further into adaptation projects suitable for addressing the real needs of the Sudanese people
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4.1 Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AICC-AF14) Project
This project is motivated by the observation that adaptation cannot be effectively undertaken separate from poverty alleviation and sustainable development activities in general, just as poverty alleviation efforts will be short-lived if undertaken without consideration of climate change and improved coping needs. It aims at addressing the knowledge gap and the limited information that exists for adaptation decision making at all the levels. It focuses in Sudan, where drought is a current threat and will continue to be in the foreseeable future potentially worsening under climate change. Under this scenario, activities to improve community and household capacity to cope with drought are of particular importance. Certain environmental management strategies (sustainable development activities) in Sudan whether approached from a poverty alleviation or natural resource management perspective have been quite effective in this regard. The project explored three examples of such experiences, documenting both, the lessons they had to offer and, equally important, a methodology to extracting those lessons and to improve our understanding on how to support community coping capacity.
The project explored the post 80s drought period in Sudan which have witnessed a number of interventions by international development agencies, aiming at reducing the impacts of drought. While most of the efforts focused on the provision of short term relief and emergency food, some attempts have been made to address the root causes of the problem by providing long-term solutions through developmental options. Many of these options involve the implementation of specific interventions by organizations such as the UNDP/GEF, SOS Sahel, OXFAM etc., aiming at increasing the ecological sustainability (water harvesting and conservation, rehabilitation of range lands, shelterbelt, employment of a sustainable management system and the support and encouragement of the application of strict regulations and sanctions over utilization of the meagre resources. The assessment aimed to identify, explore and discuss such strategies in order to make them accessible, readily understandable and useable to the policy-making process. (Osman, 2006, Osman, 2007, AIACC-AF14, 2006).
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The analysis of the conditions after the interventions revealed that some options (coping strategies) proved successful in increasing the adaptive capacity of the local communities in the face of climate variability. They have also improved their managing abilities for their livelihood assets and had gained a number of positive and tangible outcomes (Osman et al, 2006). Productivity and ecological management have evolved favorably and to a great extent sustainable. Part of the interventions are meant to reduce subsistence vulnerability through; diversification of income sources, increased savings and purchasing power, better storage facility, and access to markets. Other important strategies targeted the social capital through the formation of locally based organization (community development committees), and had contributed to solving many past problems associated with lack of skills, commitments, responsibilities and work division which reflected the importance and role of empowerment. The exploration of the three case studies revealed several broad themes, which echo basic principles of sustainable livelihoods and sustainable rural development. AIACC-Af14, 2006.
5. Early warning and short-term forecasting

Climate prediction, early warning and information systems are key tools for mitigating disaster impacts. Forecast and early prediction efforts in many African countries including Sudan, has gone mainly into food security early warning systems, which operate at national level in southern, eastern and Sahelian regions, and are supported by respective regional intergovernmental organizations and the international systems of FAO and USAID. These have become generally effective in providing timely assessments of seasonal conditions for crops and pastures, generating national food balance estimates, and more recently identifying outcomes for different livelihood groups. Their main audiences are governments of affected countries, donors and humanitarian agencies. (DFID, 2004). However, the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) have rainfall patterns that are highly variable temporally and spatially, making the prediction of pasture and water availability for livestock difficult and unreliable, (Matus J., 2006). Residents of ASAL of east Africa are exposed to risks associated with the pastoral production systems which comprise the main economic activities in these areas. They have highly variable rainfall patterns both temporally and spatially making pasture and water availability for livestock unpredictable. Some of these risks usually translate
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into risks of food
shortages and human crisis, because it interact with other risks
originating from multiple factors characterizing these areas such as; the relatively poor infrastructure, communication and information dissemination problems, lack of basic health and extension services. According to Luseno et al, 2003 poor people in these regions rarely benefit from the rainfall forecasts produced by the regional centres because they are often too coarse to be of much use.
Drought early warning systems are expected to help alert communities to potential disaster in Sudan, where the loss of livelihood capitals particularly human and animal lives is the most significant impacts of drought (Osman, 2007). DFID (2004) noted the need for building these early warning systems on the traditional mechanisms, since community-based actions can sometimes be more effective than other top-down centralized approaches. Moreover, they can be directly integrated into local response and risk reduction strategies and could also be coordinated with efforts made by disaster management authorities such as the Civil Defense and other related agencies. Effective communication also needs to be established with a focus on reaching a wide range of stakeholders.
In the past 20 years considerable progress has been made in improving systems for providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events, flood surges and food crises which allow timely action to be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is also a need for information systems to support longer-term risk assessment and monitoring, i.e. a system that focus on long term vulnerability and hazards, as a basis for disaster risk reduction initiatives within a development framework. Overall, it is important to point out that the early warning and information systems in some of the regional centres-often with substantial donor assistance-, have relatively been improved in terms of both information reliability/timeliness and linkages to early response, saving many lives in disasters. Many gaps related to the accessibility, content, language and format of information, have been identified and highlighted by a number of stakeholders in Sudan. (Hamadalla, 2007). (See fig.3 below showing the IRI probability rainfall forecast for Africa for the period July -August, 2007).
Fig (3)
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Source: IRI, 2006 It worth mentioning that this forecast (fig 3) which indicates a high probability of above normal rainfall over all the Sudan, showing a high degree of predictability skill and turned out to be true for most of Sudan. The country is currently witnessing heavy rainfall which exceeds the annual averages over many regions (Kordofan, White Nile, Khartoum, Kassala and Red Sea States) associated with disastrous floods in almost all these areas. However, inspite of the timely issuance of this forecast and related ones by the National Met. Office but very little was done regarding: o The dissemination of forecast information and early warning to targeted stakeholders (particularly those who are going to be impacted most, e.g. people who are living in low areas, along the valleys and near the river banks)). o Protective measures to minimize the impacts e.g. evacuation of high risk areas and temporary resettlement.
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o Preparation of a strategic reserve of grains, tents, etc The result was a devastating situation and major livelihood a loss, making it evident that forecast and early warning systems is in real need to be developed effectively in Sudan. The economic impact also needs to be evaluated and assessed. Moreover, there is need to improve the preparedness and ability to response in a more timely manner. Many constraints are identified to have contributed to this, among which is the lack of awareness particularly among policy makers as to the importance of early warning and preparedness to the sustainability of people's livelihoods including disaster prevention and food security as well as to the national development planning process. The national institutions e.g. Meteorological Authority which is officially responsible for issuing out climatic forecasts, mostly lack adequate technical capacity due to the quick turn over of the qualified staff to international and regional centres. In addition to that they have financial constraints, as they are considered by the Ministry of Finance as commodity and not service provider, so they are expected to generate their own funds. This has resulted in Met. Office assigning high and sometimes discouraging prices to the meteorological data and information. Moreover, the responsibility of early warning is scattered among many different institutions including the Meteorological Authority, the Civil Defense, the Disaster Reduction Department, Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) and the Strategic Reserves Cooperation. (SRC). In addition to some specialized units under the umbrella of different United Nations Organizations such as the UNHCR, WHO, WFP and the other NGOs. The lack of coordination among all the partners and institutions has negatively impacted information generation, utility, and dissemination. Moreover, different types of early warning systems are being employed by different organizations such as:: 1- early warning system (EWS) by WFP for food insecurity-prone areas 2- FAO EWS for crop production, markets, food security, nutrition and humanitarian condition. 3- EWS for epidemic-prone diseases by WHO which is described by Augusto, 2005 as useful for detecting outbreaks and monitoring the number of consultations required to trigger actions, but not for estimating mortality. In addition to that, many regional early warning systems exist, examples are: o IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC),-used to be the Drought Monitoring Centre-Nairobi. It was initiated as a follow-up of a number of projects through USAID/REDSO. Main objectives include: improving the technical capacity of producers and users of climatic information, in order to enhance the input to and
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use of climate monitoring and forecasting products; developing an improved, proactive, timely, broad-based system of information and product dissemination and feedback, at both sub-regional and national scales through national partners; and expanding the knowledge base within the sub-region in order to facilitate informed decision making, through a clearer understanding of climatic and climate-related processes. The centre maintains collaboration with the Meteorological Authority in Sudan and provides technical support to its staff. Moreover, it issues seasonal rainfall forecast for the GHA which proved highly reliable, but had also been criticized of not being informative enough and don't satisfy the specific information needs for a wider group of stakeholders in the region. o Desert Locust Component of the Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases (EMPRES), which aims at strengthening the locust management capacity of locust-affected countries to minimize the risk that desert locust plagues can develop. This is sought to be achieved through welldirected surveys and timely, environmentally sound interventions in order to mitigate food security concerns. Central regions for its work comprise countries around the Red Sea. EMPRES provide various forms of support, to improve the survey and early warning capacity of member countries. A locust information network has been setup in Sudan. http://www.crc-empres.org o Most of these centres receive financial and technical support from international organizations such as USAID, NOAA, IRI, CIDA etc. and so they have a better technical and financial capacity. Sudan has benefited to some extend from the training opportunities provided by some of these centres as well as information on forecast and early warning generated by them. Further on, there is still s good
room for better cooperation between Sudanese national institutions and these centres. Common shortcomings, however, of some of the regional as well as national forecast and early warning centres, are that while they establish the means to generate or acquire large volumes of data, including remote sensing data, their analysis and interpretation doesn't take into consideration demand side and the specific informational needs of e.g. local stakeholders and impacted
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communities. They are also weak in communicating their findings to these stakeholders in a useful form that could lead to action
6. Short term relief versus long-term development

Emergency food assistance in Sudan has continued for the past several years, throughout the conflict years, covering primarily conflict affected population and chronically food insecure ones in eastern and Central Sudan. Other food aid programmes include the Protracted Relief and Recovery (PRRO) for refugee operation in eastern Sudan. And the World Food Program (WFP) Country Programme which mainly concentrated in the chronically food-insecure and acute water-shortage areas in the north, namely Abyei area, South Kordofan, North Kordofan, Red Sea and Kassala States which are subject to structural constraints and climatic variations that have eroded people's coping mechanisms and weakened their overall asset base. The issue of relief versus development has recently become one of the most controversial issues. Many development practitioners started to question the effectiveness of the traditional approach followed by relief organizations in their response to risks and disasters. This is because donors' got used to the conventional approach which is generally short-term and oriented mainly towards provision of humanitarian assistance. Many appeals have now been made regarding the need for changing this approach to adopt a more development focused approach. A study by Abdelatti, (2003) on the Arbaat area in Red Sea State, indicated that for a long time the short term relief has been employed as the main program to curb the negative impacts of the reoccurring drought and famine conditions characterizing the area. He criticized this approach of being a short term solution that rendered the state heavily dependent on central government support and foreign aid organizations, making long term policies, including that of combating drought, of a low priority. This approach has also been described by the local community as being unsustainable, undermined their traditional coping capacity and contributed to the creation of relief dependent groups (Abdelatti, 2003, Osman, 2006). They indicated that they would prefer instead an approach that support their local capacities and help them maintain a local food production system. A different view was expressed by Atkinson (2006), who argued that it is not food aid that is creating dependency in eastern Sudan, but the failure of the
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government, the donors and international agencies to promote a sustained and holistic development process aimed at supporting livelihoods in the long term. Some organizations and relief agencies attempted to introduce the food for work as a means for getting people to be more appreciative and less dependent on relief. However, this approach is also criticized by Harvey and Lind, 2005, who argued that food for work may itself create dependency because it can distort local labour markets by attracting workers away from vital activities during the agricultural year. Ethiopia presented a National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Management with a new approach for tackling recurrent food emergencies through linking relief resources with Development interventions (DFID, 2004). In relation to this some of the WFP officials pointed out the change in the approach of the WFP from a main focus on humanitarian to the incorporation of rehabilitation and recovery, with the changing political environmentincluding the peace agreement. Additionally, the officials stressed the need for food assistance to be delivered in such a way that supports the resumption and restoration of livelihoods. And that food aid should be part of a coordinated set of broad sectoral interventions that address the root causes of food insecurity and other constraints including health, nutrition and education issues. (see annex 13) for the comparative trend analysis of WFP assistance 2005/2006. The officials mentioned few examples of the current WFP interventions, such as: o Support the provision of basic services (health and education) in the war affected areas in Southern Sudan. o Support the development of early warning through provision of training, statistical models and computer hardware to the staff at the Meteorological Authority. Brian DSilva and Olivia Tecosky (2006) examined the history of food production and productivity in Sudan in their paper on sub-regional integration. They argued that the key to national food security is the integration of markets in areas that are producing food surpluses with other food deficient ones. This is also in line with the conclusion of the AIACC-AF14 study which points out that having appropriate institutional and policy framework in place, is key for improving the adaptation and the overall livelihoods of local communities in disaster-prone areas of Sudan.
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A recent study by Catley A, et al, 2005 suggest that both governments and donors tend to fund disaster relief and rehabilitation assistance by reallocating resources from development programmes. This can be expected to affect the poor disproportionately through adverse effects on poverty reduction efforts. Catley A, et al, 2005 had also pointed to the policy and structural divisions present between the relief and development departments within DFID and other major donors and the incoherence within donors with various levels of policy disconnects.
MDTF-South (MDTF-S) focuses on rebuilding the Southern states of Sudan and providing capacity-building support to the newly-formed Government of South Sudan. As of October 31st, 2006, ten projects have been approved for MDTF-S funding, with an additional one approved pipeline including: umbrella program for health system, rural water supply and sanitation services, agriculture and forestry: support services and livestock & fisheries develop project, all of which could potentially be impacted by climate change and warrant to be examined in this context.
WFP and the Government of Sudan have launched a five-year Country Programme for the period 2002-2006 that covers two interlinked activities: activity 1 provides educational and nutritional support to school children; and activity 2 supports food for work activities in water harvesting and rehabilitation of educational infrastructure. While this five year plan particularly the water harvesting activities could contribute to the adaptive capacity building, but in general terms this plan didn't specifically consider climate change or variability or attempt to mitigate its potential impacts.
The 2007 Work Plan of the United Nations and partners in Sudan (UN, 2007), integrates two broad programming components: o The delivery of humanitarian assistance to vulnerable conflict-affected populations (including host communities) and the; o Introduction of such programmes that will enable the timely transition towards a more sustainable level of national recovery and development.
In addition to that The 2007 Plan has also identified a number of cross-cutting issues, which are to be integrated into all of the sectoral programmes. They are:
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HIV/AIDS National Capacity Building Environmental Sustainability Gender Mainstreaming However, climate change has not been considered among the cross-cutting issues that need to be integrated into all the UN sectoral plans. (See annex 14), for Project Summary by Sector and Assistance Category for National Programmes)
7) Conclusions
Despite all scientific progress in climate scenarios, still many uncertainties surround the magnitude, pace and character of future climate change at both regional and national scales. In addition, the limited amount of studies in terms of depth and coverage to Sudan and the difficulty in drawing out solid conclusions from different climatic scenarios may constrain the ability to formulate a well- founded policy recommendation, targeting government and donor organization. However, all these limitations should not hinder the scientists from communicating the climate change-related information, underlining the need for immediate actions, based on the precautionary principle that; it would be much safer and cost effective if planning decisions take into account climate change concerns now- in the context of current uncertainty- than wait until it is too late. Precipitation scenarios under future climate change over the Nile Basin still show a degree of disagreement and inconsistent results regarding potential impact on Nile flow. However, there is a general agreement that temperature rise will lead to greater loss through evaporation placing additional stress on water resources regardless of changes in rainfall.. Such scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with economic development and increases in population, may trigger conflict between the different countries sharing the basin. It is important that all the regional management plans of the Nile ecosystem take into consideration this potential scenario to put necessary mitigation mechanism and avoid future conflicts over water resources.
Climate change is also expected to influence water demand for irrigation and other uses. A reduction of up to twenty five percent of the Nile water is expected under some. This is
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expected to have serious implications on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation scheme in central Sudan, and the gerf agriculture in the Northern and Nile states. Taking into consideration that the irrigated agriculture in Sudan is already facing a number of problems including poor irrigation and drainage infrastructure, accumulation of sediments into the canals and salinization of water. Climate change will just be an added stress that could lead to a situation of high risk to this important sector.
The climate change assessments in Sudan suggest that, under even modest changes in climate, the country faces significant threats in terms of food security, export crop production (Gum Arabic), human health and water availability. This is expected to aggravate the current climate variability and environmental stresses, further undermining the coping capacity of climate sensitive sectors already suffering from this variability and associated extremes. This situation demands immediate policy responses addressing current variability problems, and in so doing also buffer against longer term adverse climatic change i.e. provide for a win-win- 'no regret options.
Climate change is likely to lead to food deficits in many Sudan neighbouring countries of east and central Africa, resulting particularly from recurrent drought and crop failure. This would increase the number of environmental refugees' crossing the boarders and hence, the need for humanitarian assistance. Moreover, scarce water and food had always triggered conflicts and civil wars which is one of the main reasons for mass migration and displacement. (war refugees) -The recent IPCC report highlighted the potential impacts of internal and across boarder migration as a response measure to climate induced stresses, and its severe social and environmental impacts (IPCC, 2007).
The preliminary findings of the climate-related assessment in Sudan provide a warning signal to stakeholders and decision makers and give a cause for concern for Sudans security in the face of changing climate. It highlighted the need to address vulnerability problems with practical solutions and measures, work in close cooperation with relevant organizations together with the local communities and NGOs to face these future risks; Policy makers, organizations, and local stakeholders must be partners in the identification
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and implementation of community-level adaptations as well as in the Sudans larger response to climate change.
The vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Kordofan provided useful data sets on historical trends as well as projected future climate change (2030 and 2060) which can inform the long term planning process. Key sectors identified as sensitive to climate change include water, agriculture and human health. The implications of the projected high variation of rainfall coupled with warming and the absence of irrigation could exacerbate the exposure of the whole country to high risks of food insecurity and a prevalence of human diseases. The assessments have also highlighted the urgent need for adaptive measures in key economic sectors, and beyond, indicating that the timely assessment of impacts can assist in the planning and development of appropriate long-term mitigation and adaptation strategies for the management of natural resources, (HCENR, 2003). This important assessment could be duplicated in other areas of the country to get a more comprehensive picture on the vulnerability situation in Sudan (vulnerability map).
Several existing socio-economic and natural resource strategies and plans provide an
indirect framework for adaptation to climate change but due to the complex nature of climate change, responsive policies need to comprise a combination of various policy areas. For example, specific policies to address adaptation to adverse impacts of climate change on important sectors such as freshwater, agriculture and food, human health and infrastructure. Moreover, to ensure the sustainability of these adaptation policies and measures, options for addressing climate change impacts should be integrated with other national and sectoral development policies and work programmes. This would not be an easy task for Sudan where fragmented and sectoral approach for development is still dominates, in spite the many calls for integration and mainstreaming. Results from the few climate related studies conducted so far have disclosed the urgent need for including climate change adaptation into the development plans at different levels and scales .(AIACC-AF14 see annex 6 for detailed information on the project) The findings by AIACC study could help influence Sudans key decision-makers toward adopting practical means of adaptation to adverse climatic conditions mainly drought47
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and demonstrate the essence of integrating climate adaptation with broader development policies e.g., through more sustainable rangeland management policies, or through national water resource policies that actively support localized water management, etc. Moreover, the lessons learned can be taken up and applied in other areas of similar setting within Sudan and Africa, as they have reflected the potential to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation planning efforts as well as future development work. One of gaps that have been identified in the V&A assessment under the 1st. National Communication is that it has focused mainly on future impacts of climate change (2030 and 2060) and didn't cover the current vulnerability of Sudan to climate variability or the analysis of priority areas for immediate intervention;. However, this have been effectively dealt with in the AIACC-AF 14 project which focused more on historic climate records and existing climate scenarios and the use of current climate as a proxy for climate change. Another gap identified is the lack of clear plan or outreach strategy for the final report this resulted in a some-what low media coverage and lack of interest among different stakeholders or target groups. This was reflected in the lack of appreciation by the government for environmental issues creating a state of apathy towards all environmental issues including urgent problems related to drought and desertification, loss of biodiversity, expanding poverty and conflicts over resources. Other issues highlighted among the gaps are the lack of adequate coordination and linkage with other conventions (Biodiversity & desertification See Annex (5) the status quo of the MEAs in the Sudan and annex 19 on List of climate change-related initiatives in Sudan). This had consequently led to the inadequate integration of climate change issues into national development strategies and plans and the insufficient policy dialogue (see annex 16).
In the past 20 years considerable progress has been made in improving systems for
providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events, which allow timely action to be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is still a need for information systems to support longer-term risk assessment Different types of early warning systems are being employed by different organizations at regional and sub-regional levels. However, their contribution to improving the coping capacity is still limited,
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this was largely attributed to the lack of coordination between them and the local relevant institutions A situation that have reflected negatively on the generation, communication , and utility, of early warning information to targeted stakeholders.
Forecast and early warning systems in Sudan still need to be developed effectively.
Moreover, there is need to improve the preparedness and ability to response in a more timely manner. Many constraints are identified to have contributed to this, among which is the lack of coordination among national institutions, lack of awareness particularly among policy makers as to the importance of early warning and preparedness to the sustainability of people's livelihoods including disaster prevention and food security as well as to the national development planning process.
The food distribution and post-disaster provision of humanitarian assistance was the conventional approaches that have been adopted by relief and humanitarian organizations to curb the negative impacts of climate related disasters. This approach has been criticized by many as being a short term unsustainable, undermining the traditional coping capacity and contributed to the creation of relief dependent community. Many appeals have now been made regarding the need for these organizations (UN, WFP etc.) for changing this approach and adopt a more development focused approach for tackling recurrent food emergencies through
linking relief resources with development interventions.
Some organizations
started to respond to calls for new approaches by developing
assistance plans which shift from a main focus on humanitarian to the incorporation of rehabilitation and recovery, and restoration of livelihoods. However, the issue of climate change have rarely been considered in their plans. It is important that they incorporate climate change concerns in all sectoral interventions aimed at addressing the root causes of livelihood insecurity and famines.
8) Recommendations
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The presence of many limitations and uncertainties in climate science should not discourage the policy makers from taking actions to address urgent adaptation needs of vulnerable communities and sectors identified in Sudan. Donor organizations as well as national governments must overcome the bureaucratic distinction between adaptation to current climate variability and future climate change and must support broad-based resilience building with no-regret interventions, uniting the development and adaptation communities in the process.
Driven by the need for interventions with a longer-term recovery and development impacts, development planners need to explore alternatives to food-based programming for emergency affected populations a conventional approach practiced by humanitarian agencies A new policy is required for disaster mitigation and for tackling recurrent food emergencies through linking relief resources with development interventions. Reducing peoples vulnerability to expected climatic hazards and to increase their coping capacity. Should e considered as one of the main objectives of development planning.
The strong links between conflicts and climatic stresses is well established in many studies therefore it is important that strategies aiming at peace building tackle the root causes rather than addressing the symptoms. One way to achieve a sustained stability could be through factoring in climate change implications into conflict resolution and peace processes.
Wider support of policies and programs aiming at achieving international cooperation on climate change issues should be encouraged through awareness campaigns targeting policy makers. Efforts should also be made to create an enabling environment for a more targeted regional and international cooperation in climate-related transboundary issues e.g. the increasing pressure on water resources calls for the development of international cooperative mechanisms to manage shared water resources e.g. the Nile Basin
It is important to integrate climate change into multi-donor planning processes such as UN Workplan / (UN, 2007), and partners in Sudan MDTF WFP, taking into consideration that climate change could affect the number and distribution of refugees
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and IDPs, and the delivery of humanitarian assistance as well as any proposed new recovery and development programmes
An information dissemination plan needs to be developed to ensure that use is made of the available information on potential adaptation options that have been identified under the climate change project & related initiatives (AIACC-AF14 and NAPA). This information should be used to inform policy and decision makers, as well as for replication/ up-scaling of successful experiences to other regions of the country. Public awareness campaigns focusing on current and potential impacts of climate change as well as possible adaptation responses should be programmed to cover the whole country, particularly vulnerable communities at the local levels.
More coordination is needed between national and regional organizations in relation to early warning and disaster risk assessment for effective development and dissemination of forecast and early warning to improve the preparedness and ability to response in a timelier manner. There is also a need for undertaking longer term risk assessment to assist the incorporation of disaster prevention and management in the development plans rather than simply reacting to offset negative impacts after they occur. It is equally important to improve the technical capacity of national institutions -producers and usersof climatic forecasts and early warning information, in order to enhance the output, uptake, and use of climate forecasting products and developing an improved system of information and product dissemination and feedback between the national, sub-regional and regional partners to facilitate informed decision making, through a clearer
understanding of climatic and climate-related processes.
The limited consensus and uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of climate change on the Nile Basin underscores the need for undertaking more basin-level research studies to address the knowledge gap in a coordinated approach among the regional partners. Moreover, and due to the sensitivity of the shared water issues among the countries of the basin, it is important to develop an integrated regional management plan and ensure a high level of awareness to future regional disputes over the resources. . There is a need for better understanding of potential climate change impacts on water
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resources before the development of large-scale projects which require large capital investment, as more and more evidences are accumulating on the potential impact of climate change on the performance of the existing and planned water/hydro facilities. To ensure the sustainability of major projects such as new dams or canals it is important to take into consideration the expected impacts of climate variability and change and provide for early warning, prediction and mitigation measures. It is also important to examine the potential change in Nile water flow and its impact on irrigated agricultural projects in Sudan.
One way to address climate change concerns is to mainstream adaptation into the development planning, and consider it during the formulation of economic and sectoral policies and strategies of related institutions Use could be made of the
recommendations by previous studies such as AIACC-AF14 which have underscored the role of sustainable management of natural resources in supporting the broad
improvements in livelihood security and household and community capacity to cope with climate impacts.
Due consideration should be given to addressing the methodology and data gaps identified by previous assessments and studies, and to develop a plan for undertaking a capacity building program that can best serve to equip Sudan with required skills to undertake vulnerability and adaptation assessment using sophisticated modeling and remote sensing techniques. Special emphasis should be given to these important research areas on economic implications of climatic impacts as well as and evaluation of adaptation options in terms of e.g. Cost-effectiveness, applicability and accessibility. Financial and technical support is needed for human as well as institutional capacity building. Skills and capacities are also needed to develop fundable proposal that could attract investments in climate change projects.
It is also important to involve different stakeholders in all efforts and programs aiming at addressing climate change impacts and adaptation at the different levels. Of particular importance is the facilitation of NGO participation in national and international climate change activities, policy forums, education and training, and dissemination of public
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information. Therefore, to ensure the taking up of practical actions for addressing climate change related issues, it is important to develop a climate change implementation strategy, keeping the following issues in mind: Who are the target stakeholders, what are the best means for approaching them, what measures need to be put in place to ensure their involvement and adoption? Etc.
There an urgent need to strengthen national consensus for climate change actions through outreach and institutional building. Effective use should be of the findings of V& A assessment in placing climate change in the proper context of all these other long and short term changes, creating greater awareness among different stakeholders and further expand the capability for quantitative analysis in support of far-reaching national decision-making issues. Outreach activities should be planned in order to provide for: access to national and international climate change information, open dialogues and meetings to help foster a better understanding of climate change; stimulate public discussion on key issues; and catalyze project development efforts in Sudan. Information dissemination on national policies, strategies and international cooperation should also be supported through the maintenance of an internet web site as well as through traditional channels such as journals, press and other media. The outreach approach should emphasize the extensive use of information exchanges as an expert tool i.e., internet, electronic newsletters, expert networks, training courses, roundtables, workshops and seminars to build technical capacity and public support for the Sudans Climate Change program.
A need for more harmonization of the various existing initiatives and the improvement of the coordination and linkages with other conventions (Biodiversity & desertification for adequate integration of climate change issues into national development strategies and plans.
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9. Annexes
Annex (1) Institutions involved in CC Activities: A number of institutions have actively contributed to the climate change project in Sudan; their involvement has been through the participation in the National Technical Committee or in the assessment studies as members of the working groups/study teams. The list of institutions includes:
Department of Planning & Agriculture Economics (DPAE) Engineering society (ES) National Electricity Corporation (NEC) Institute for Technological Research (ITR) Forests National Corporation (FNC) Environment and Natural Resources Research Institute (ENRI) Institute of Environmental Studies (IES) Federal Ministry of Industry (FMI) Department of Range and Pasture (DRP) Energy Research Institute (ERI) Ministry of Energy & Mining (MEM) National Draught & Desertification Unit (NDDU) NGOs & Private Sector National State Ministry of Industry Meteorological Authority (MA) Department of Statistics & Information (DSI) Ministry of Investment and International Cooperation (MIIC) Forestry Research Institute (FRI) Ministry of Transport (MoT) Ministry of Communication (MoC) Petrol & Transport Administration (Khartoum State) Climate Change Project National Technical Committee (NTC) Members
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Relevant National experts Annex (2) Rainfall Sensitivity to Climate Change Sensitivity of Sudan rainfall to global warming is not yet known since the regional detail of precipitation changes resulting from the temperature increase are sill poorly modelled by GCMs . The table below shows the range of scenarios for future rainfall change in Sudan over the next 40 years. Scenarios depend on the cause of recent droughts and the sensitivity of rainfall to global warming.
Cause of recent rainfall Drier Sahel depletion Natural cycles Natural change Stronger+ climatic -
Rainfall change by 2030 AD Wetter due to GHG effect no Sahel change Sahel +0 Weaker ++ 0
Regional -anthropogenic climatic change * Global anthropogenic climatic change Notes:

Much drier - Drier -
N/a
N/a
No change 0
Wetter +
Alternative wet/dry phases +
Assumes no reversal of land degradation (1980s taken as base rainfall level)
In this table four main causes of the recent rainfall depletion are suggested: an irregular cyclical pattern which would naturally see a return to wetter conditions a climatic discontinuity due to some (unknown) natural cause, in which a new stable drier regime is now the norm a climatic change resulting from regional changes in land surface characteristics, namely land degradation and deforestation a climatic change which has been induced by global scale modification of atmospheric composition through the emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG.
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The net outcome from the table is a range of scenarios heavily weighted towards either maintenance of the reduced rainfall yields of recent decades or else a further decline. Only one of the ten scenarios leads to regenerated rainfall.
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Annex (3) Methodology for developing scenarios: The climate scenarios chosen were commonly applied to models of ecosystems, and to a variety of sectoral impact models designed to quantify the magnitude of the physical impacts on vulnerable sectors. Possible options to adapt to those future impacts were identified at the last stage of the assessment. Their use in modeling (see the diagram below), is an effective tool for the analysis of historical data series that provide valuable information in validating and verifying the output of (GCM). FCCC/SBI/2000/INF.9).
Top-down and bottom-up approaches to assessing vulnerability and adaptation. Source: Dessai and Hulme, 2004. Scenarios can be used for addressing questions regarding the key vulnerabilities and potential impacts of climate change, with more focus on the magnitude of the impacts of climate change. However, several constraints have been associated with the use of this framework including the following weaknesses: They generate information which has a highly aggregated nature and cannot reflect local phenomena and trend. They consider vulnerability as an end-point They are not well on representing human interactions and local abilities to adapt. Show difficulty in comparing indicators and indexes assessing different temporal and spatial scales if measurement unit are inconsistent. Mostly limited by the uncertainty inherent in the use of global circulation models used to drive their scenarios.
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Their use is limited to impact evaluation and not to the evaluation of adaptation options.
Nevertheless, -as indicated above- use of scenarios has been useful in terms of providing a base for the long-term adaptation strategies in which the attribution to climate change becomes important. One of the recommendation made at the (FCCC/SBSTA/2004/INF.13), was that, bottom-up approaches should be applied in parallel for adaptation assessment, as these are currently the only reliable mechanism that can guide actions for preemptive/ anticipatory adaptation as well as for strengthening adaptive capacity.
Annex 4 Uncertainties associated with the preparation of the national communication
1 Uncertainties associated with data Data related uncertainties have been widely identified over the different chapters of the report including inventory, V&A assessment and the mitigation analysis.
Availability/incompleteness has been raised as a major problem e.g. (a). incomplete historical record of climate, crop productions, disease incidences, etc. (b)agricultural and water resource data gaps: Gum yield per tree, relations between soil moisture, ground water recharge and other factors influencing recharge Agricultural and water resource data gaps: Gum yield per tree, relations between soil moisture, ground water recharge and other factors influencing recharge. Data formatting: most of the available data is not tabulated according to the standard format which makes it difficult to compare or analyze across sectors. To address these data gaps several measures are being highlighted as important, mainly; the integration of climate change data needs into the normal reporting systems for relevant institutions; the creation and maintenance of a well-designed web-based database to facilitate access to climate change data. In the cases where data could not be made available due to complete lack of information e.g. Southern Sudan, national experts (expert judgement). use was made of the best estimates of
2. Uncertainties associated with use of scenarios 2.1 Socio-economic scenarios: It is already known that there is tremendous uncertainty about future socio-economic conditions. Whether and how much such key variables as
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population, income, technology, income distribution, institutions and the environment will change can have large uncertainties associated with them. In addition, there can be surprises, such as the emergence of epidemic outbreak that can substantially affect socioeconomic conditions. The report highlighted some of these factors as potential constraints, indicating also the fact that scenarios for future socio-economic changes and their effects on the exposure are not well taken into account due to the lack of relevant expertise and methodological constraints. Another gap noted in the report is the lack of baseline socio-economic information mainly due to inadequate consideration of the socio-economic factors in the different sectors. Consequently, the socio-economic scenarios developed didn't really present predictions of future socio-economic conditions rather; they represent some attempts to explore how expected changes in key socio-economic variables can affect vulnerability. In other words, use was made of socio-economic scenarios simply as a tool to identify what socioeconomic variables that were most likely going to increase or decrease the vulnerability to climate changes. 2.2 Uncertainties associated with climate scenarios: For climate change issues, there is much uncertainty implicit in the choice of General Circulation Models (GCMs) which are mathematical representations of atmosphere, ocean, ice cap, and land surface processes based on physical laws and empirical relations (UNEP, 1998), and greenhouse gas forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the additional complications introduced by downscaling. According to ( Hewitson, 2003) , this would exacerbates the uncertainty associated with any derived climate change scenario and reduces the value of any impact assessment intended for developing policy and adaptation strategies. In this regard and according to (UNFCCC, 2004)), it was known that some model simulations of the current and future climates were found to be quite coarse or inappropriate, and GCM outputs used were unable to translate how global warming will affect changes in temperature and precipitation at the national and regional level (see Fig (10) Yon uncertainty explosion, adapted from Roger, 2002).
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Figure (10) Uncertainty explosion (adapted from Roger, 2002).
Uncertainty explosion Emission scenarios Global climate sensitivity Regional variability Biophysical impacts
3 The
Socio-economic impacts
current WMO normal period is 1961-1990 was used to represent the baseline climate
scenario. This period is thought to best define current climate because of its being recent and of sufficient length. One problem with the use of the 1961-1990 periods, however, is that the 1980s were, globally, the warmest decade this century (Jones et al., 1994). Therefore, using 1961-1990 as a base period could introduce a warming trend into the baseline, which could bias the results of some impact assessments. This has also been the observed case in Sudan, where the 1980s was the period marked by anomalous low rainfall and drought. 3. Uncertainties associated with the use of impact models There is also a degree of uncertainty associated with climate model products and impact assessment methods. However, the question how these uncertainties interact in an assessment model received less attention in the FNC. It is known that an improved understanding of the "cascade of uncertainties" provides essential feedback to guide the technical evolution of models and assessment methods associated with climate projections and impact scenarios. Knowledge of uncertainties is also critical in establishing national and international strategies for mitigation and adaptation to future climate variability and change
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Annex (5) the status quo of the MEA in the Sudan Title Status Implementing Institution 1. 2. London Convention 1933 Rome Convention on the Protection of Plants African Conv. On the Cons. Of Nature & Nat. Resources CITES 1973 Regional Conv. For the Cons. Of the Red Sea & Gulf of Eden Environment UNC on the Law of Seas UNFCCC UNCBD 1992 UNCDD 1994 Biosafety Protocol Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) Basel Convention Ratified 1935 Ratified 1971 Ratified 1973 in in Ministry of Interior Min. of Agric. & Forests Min. of Agric. & Forests
3.
in
4. 5.
Ratified 1982 Ratified 1985
in in
Min. of Interior HCENR
6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
Ratified 1985 Ratified 1993 Ratified 1995 Ratified 1995 Ratified 1995 Ratified Ratified 2002 Ratified
in in in in in
HCENR HCENR HCENR Min. of Agric. & Forests HCENR HCENR
in
13.
Ramsar Convention WTO Biosafety Protocol
HCENR & Min. of Agric. & Forests Wildlife Research and the HCENR
14. 15.
Under Ratification Ratified
HCENR
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Annex (6) AIACC-AF14 project- Environmental Strategies to Improve community's Adaptation to Climate variability and change- Lessons for East and North Africa The AF-14 project was motivated by the observation that certain community-based development activities serve to build coping and adaptive capacity in the face of climate-related shocks. In countries like Sudan, where many communities currently lack the capacity to effectively cope with drought, measures such as these can serve to build coping and adaptive capacity and can play a role in emerging climate change adaptation strategies. Indeed, such measures are essential for closing the current deficit in climate coping capacity and providing communities the basis upon which to adapt to climate change. But if, in its adaptation planning process, a country like Sudan wished to prioritize adaptation for certain communities highly vulnerable to drought impacts, it would face the challenge of determining which specific measures to foster. What works at the community scale, in what settings, under what conditions? The methods designed and adapted by the AF-14 project aimed to respond to this challenge. The project explored the hypothesis that a simple set of project impact assessment tools in this case, structured around the sustainable livelihoods (SL) framework can help to fill the practical and conceptual gap that exists between local vulnerability to climate impacts and national adaptation assessment and decision-making processes. The project explored this hypothesis by employing the SL
framework to assess the impact of community-based development activities on community coping capacity. The project developed and adapted existing project impact assessment
methods, and applied these in three communities in which efforts had been undertaken to increase the capacity of households to cope with drought. In participation with the communities, indicators of household coping capacity were developed and knowledge elicitation methods were used to explore the specific nature of this change. The results point to suites of measures that have clear beneficial impact and can be employed in Sudan for building the capacity to cope with current climate variability, and by extension, to adapt to climate change. Of equal value and broader relevance, the success of this community-based assessment process suggests that the methods used, and others like them, have clear applications within the larger vulnerability and adaptation assessment process. The Sudan FNC has outlined key vulnerabilities as well, albeit more in sectoral than human terms. Certain studies anticipate that climate variability and change will have overwhelming impacts on agriculture, the predominant livelihood system in the three case studies, and consequently on food security (Case study reports AF14, 2003). The lack of water, in association
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with high temperatures (up to 45 C at certain periods of the year), is the most limiting factors for agricultural productivity, according to such studies. In light of the rich literature and regrettably current experience of Sudans vulnerability to drought, the AF-14 project sought not to explore impacts and vulnerability in any depth, but to simply recap what is known and to focus instead on exploring drought coping capacity and resilience, with the aim of identifying practical, effective ways of building both current drought resilience and future adaptive capacity. Since the AF-14 project used past and current vulnerability to climate variability as a proxy for future vulnerability under climate change, historical records and literature survey were conducted in order to see the impacts and vulnerability in a historic context. Within this framework of understanding, the project could then use communitys coping and adaptive capacity in the face of current variability and extremes as a proxy for its level of coping and adaptive capacity under climate change. A growing number of sources suggest that the degree to which a sector, community, or system is adapted to todays climate extremes and variability can serve as an indicator of how resilient that system is likely to be to future climate change conditions (see e.g., Elasha et al 2003). The AF-14 project is based on this approach, and on the premise that numerous adaptation lessons are to be gleaned from current experience.
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Annex (7), mean annual rainfall, pattern, seasonal variability and trends in 2000 (Source: Metrological Authority)
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Annex (8) Sudan Humanitarian activities 2004- Source: UN Department of peace keeping
operation, 2003
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Annex (9) detailed map of Sudan - Source: UN Department of peace keeping operation, 2004
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Annex (10) Refugees and IDPs in Africa (UNHCR, 2005)
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Annex (11) Land cover map of Africa (source: Journal of Biogeography, 2004)
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Annex (12) People contacted
Institute World Food Program (WFP)
Name 1. Mr. Abdallah El Shiekh
Address VAM assistant Program Officer/ Khartoum office Tel: +249912179897
Program \officer 2. Mohamed Satti Monitoring and Evaluation Unit e-mail mohammed.satti@wfp.org United Nations Development Program (UNDP) 3. Hanan Abdalla Mutwakil Senior Program Officer GEF National Coordinator e-mail hanan.mutwakil@undp.org Khatoum Office Institute of Environmental Studies Hana Hamadalla Mohamed Senior Researcher PI research on the Use of Rainfall Forecast for Improving the Coping Capacity of Local Communities in Kordofan State e-mail hanahamadalla2@yahoo.com
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Annex (13) Comparative trend analysis of WFP assistance 2005/2006

Source: adapted from WFP, 2006 Sudan Annual Needs Assessment/ Food Security Report Region 2005 versus 2006 Positive factors Risk factors Darfur Fluid- partial International presence/visibility Further escalation in the conflict improvement Substantial humanitarian Decline in funds for humanitarian assistance assistance Better climatic conditions Risk of cross-boarder conflicts Relatively better cereal Lower cereal harvest production Further curtailment of access /mobility Potential increase in camp based population East improving Better agricultural production Chronic food insecurity due to serious Stable livestock prices and structural failure- Red Sea State stocks Limited livelihood options for IDPs and Increased unskilled labour wage weak service infrastructure rates Politically charged and volatile conditions in Hoomesh Koreib Potential refugee influx due due to tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia Decline in urban labour employment opportunities due to mechanization-Port Sudan - Higher consumer prices due to inflammatory effect South improving Signing of CPA and formation Delays in implementation of the peace of GoNU and GoSS agreement no peace dividend Increased economic Returnee influx in the context of the opportunities with establishment peace agreement of government .institutions Lack of infrastructure- particularly Re-establishment of urban-rural transport linkages with the opening of the High transaction costs for trade from former garrison towns surplus to deficit areas Improved security conditions Localized crop failures in Northern BahrRelatively high agric. Production el Ghazal and Eastern Equatorial Newly opened roads trade Potentially increased Lord Resistance opportunities Army (LRA) activities Improved access to commodities and services The three improving Good agric. Production Returnee influx in the context of the areas Improved security condition peace agreement Increased land under cultivation Potential conflict associated with Newly opened roads trade delimitation of boarders and right issuesopportunities nomadic and sedentary population groups Improved access to commodities and services
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Annex ( 14) UNDP project summary by sector and assistance category for national program
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.
Annex 15. Summary of the Sudans First National Communications Report
1 Background Recognizing the importance of addressing climate change and the need to integrate its environmental and development objectives, Sudan signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in November 1993 and ratified it on March 1994. Pursuant to Articles 4.1 and 12.1 all Parties, both industrialised and developing, are obliged to communicate to the Conference of the Parties in the form of national communications, the following elements of information: an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks, a general description of steps taken or envisaged to implement the UNFCCC, and any other information considered relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention. In 1997, the Climate Change Project was launched to enable Sudans response to the UNFCCC. It was funded by GEF, executed by the National Execution Management Support Unit (NEXMSU) and implemented by the Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (HCENR) with technical assistance from the Stockholm Environmental Institute-Boston (SEI_B). It was agreed by all the project partners that climate change is an important global problem and that Sudan must do its part to address it. 2 Objectives of the Sudan's NC While the project has a long term objective of fostering human resource development in order to effectively deal with climate change and address its global and national consequences and implications., it immediate Objectives including: Improving Sudanese capacity to comply with the UNFCCC; Preparing and institutionalizing the national communication reports and; creating national teams and institutional structures capable of addressing climate changerelated issues. The strategies for achieving the above -mentioned objectives included inter alia; building human and institutional capacities within the relevant institutes and giving more emphasis to issues that are perceived as having environmental importance as well as development priorities. In addition to that, the project undertook several activities ranging from general workshops and awareness campaigns to specialized training and studies involving relevant
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stakeholders including policy makers in the government and Non-government organizations and partner institutions (see annex 1).9 The specialized training covered different areas of climate change related issues such as; inventory of green houses from different sources and sinks using standard IPCC methodology; vulnerability & adaptation assessment and mitigation analysis The Sudans 1st. National Communication has been prepared with the aim of building Sudanese's capacity in order to meet international obligations under the Framework Convention, and to actively reach out and become a key regional player in efforts for reducing the impacts of climate change and developing adaptation capacities, as well as contributing to reduction of GHS emissions through e.g. improvement in sequestering carbon in sinks. It is also hoped that the report can provide guidance on issues related to gaps and priorities in climate change research in such a way to attract further support from donors to Sudan for meeting its environmental goals. The formats of the national communications are standardized across countries party to the UNFCCC to facilitate synthesis and comparison between them. The main ideas realized in the National Implementation Strategy (chapter 5 of the NC), focused on the need for assisting Sudan in making a real contribution to the efforts by international communities to addressing the climate change concerns through: The strengthening of institutions and developing of policies necessary to enable Sudan's response to international commitments on global climate change, by supporting and expanding the current administrative structure within the HCENR, establish a networking mechanisms to coordinate a national climate change program and facilitate the flow of information between relevant sectors and organizations; Assess the vulnerability of different sectors to the impacts of climate change, investigate and assess adaptation capacities and propose actions. Contribute to international community efforts to reduce GHG emissions by creating awareness at different levels and encourage investments in and financing for
environmental technologies and mitigation measures, especially in renewable energy, energy efficiency and forestry management; and
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Increase the involvement of non-governmental actors (e.g., civil society and private sector) in the development and implementation of Sudans climate change strategies and plans.
The production of the First National Communication (FNC) marked the completion of the Climate Change Enabling Project. The report was then presented in a national workshop aiming at achieving the following objectives: Reviewing and discussing of the report (Sudans First National Communication) by all relevant national consultants/ experts and other stakeholders. Providing a platform for exploring and understanding the role of national communications in the current and future development of the UNFCCC. Assisting in elaborating essential requirements and institutional framework for undertaking the activities necessary for preparing future national communication The workshop concluded that the Sudans government should move forward on the issue of developing a national implementation strategy on climate change, prioritize the adaptation options for vulnerable sectors and propose actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and improve & maintain carbon sinks.
To meet these objectives, strategic support is needed that focuses on increasing national capacity for project development to improve adaptation capacities increase human resilience to climate change and promoting promising investments in energy efficient technologies and other measures to reduce GHG emissions.
It is also important that all targeted efforts should build upon existing activities avoiding duplications and giving more room for identifying opportunities for viable investments in funding appropriate adaptation options and contribute to sustainable development. Over time, the intent is for Sudan to identify viable investments in all relevant sectors and geographic areas
3 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR) defines climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment as the practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and beneficial consequences of climate change on natural and human systems, and identifying and evaluating options for adapting to climate change.
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In the face of climate change, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation options is a critical component of Sudans response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).The assessment analyzed consequences for Sudan if certain climate changes occur. It represented the first attempt to find the relation between the observed impacts on natural and human systems and past and current climate variability, as well as exploring the potential impacts of future climate change on the different sectors of the region. (Fig 7) from the IPCC -3rd.Assessment report- 2001, reflects the lack of information on vulnerability in Sudan compared to other African countries up to the time when the first V&A assessment was conducted. Fig (7) Climate Change vulnerability in Africa (IPCC, 2001)
The purpose of V&A assessment was to illuminate the potential impacts of climate change on critically important sectors, specifically it aimed at uncovering the types of challenges that are likely be faced in the not too long future with regard to food security, water resources and human health. Other longer term objectives included; the identification of possible adaptive responses for reducing adverse effects, highlight the linkages between the impacts on different natural resources sectors and other environmental, socio-economic consequences of climate change. 3.1 Study Area
The assessment focused on Kordofan States as the major region depending mainly on rainfed agriculture, with the traditional farmers and pastoralists being the most vulnerable and the least resilient groups to climate-related variability and shocks. The vulnerability of Kordofan to climate change was illustrated mainly using climate scenario analyses. Two climate change
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projections were considered, one with the expected climate change likely to take place by the year 2030 and the other which is likely to occur by the year 2060. The results of the climate and socio-economic scenarios indicated that the Kordofan regions being part of African Sahelian region characterized by high aridity is already vulnerable to natural climate variability e.g. erratic rainfall and frequent dust storms (see Annex 10 - A new land-cover map of Africa for the year 2000) However, the region vulnerability is expected to get higher due to a high degree of projected climatic and socio-economic stresses in addition to other multiple factors, such as poor infrastructure, weak adaptive capacity and the lack of awareness regarding effective response measures The vulnerability and adaptation assessment covered the following issues: 1. Development.of climate and socio-economic scenario 2. Using the developed scenarios to assess the V&A of : agriculture and forestry (sorghum, millet and gum arabic) Water resources. (soil moisture) .Human health (malaria) A top-down approach known as the standard approach is based on climate scenarios derived from general circulation models (GCMs), as well as on some consideration of socio-economic scenarios ( see annex 3 on methodology for developing scenarios). Projections of rainfall under future climate change conditions also shows sharp deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of the models show average rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season. This is illustrated in the two graphs (fig 9 a and b) below for change in rainfall and temperature in 2060 compared to a baseline, and using observations derived from five meteorological stations. 3.3 V&A Assessment of agricultural and forestry Production As mentioned earlier the assessment employed conventional and modern assessment techniques including scenario generation (socio-economic and climate scenarios) and impacts models. Moreover and whenever is feasible it employed the experts' judgment. The assessment of agricultural and forestry production (sorghum, millet, and gum arabic
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production), followed the impact framework which focused on assessing long-term risks from climate change, impacts looking into the future (2030 and 2060, in our case), and are often driven by scenarios of climate change. Baseline yield scenarios were established against which predicted crop and gum yield projections were measured, (representing business as usual i.e. without climatic changes). Then climate change scenarios were developed to test the sensitivity of Kordofans agro climatic zones, and thus crop yield and gum arabic production, to changes in CO2 levels. This comparison is intended to help establish the sectors degree of sensitivity and level of vulnerability. Using FAO Impact Model, the simulation tested several GCM scenarios. The results revealed that, drought would become more pronounced with a number of impacts on livelihood systems projected through this work are strikingly negative, suggesting a significant decrease in Kordofans agricultural productivity and a reduction in its primary cash crop (sorghum and millet, yields from baseline (1980) levels in all seasons and areas, with sorghum, as the most vulnerable crop under a changed climate. It was also noted that, a rise in temperature associated with increased water stress would lower gum Arabic production significantly. The following specific impacts are recorded: A southward shift in moist agro climatic zones is seen, indicating a shrinking area of crop production. Food crop yield for the selected stations showed a decline from baseline yield of between 13% and 82% for sorghum and between 20% and 76% for millet. The exception was Rashad station, where predicted crop yields were roughly equivalent to baseline. Crop yield in the southern part of the region (Kadugli) remained close to historic levels. Of the three exposure units, sorghum is most heavily affected. A shift of the Gum Arabic belt (Acacia Senegal) southward is already been detected and is projected to increase with declining rainfall. This will be accompanied by a reduction in Gum arabic yield, region-wide, between 25% and 30%. (see
fig 8) Shifting of Gum Arabic belt
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Fig (7) southward shifting of the Gum Arabic belt (Source: 1st.National communication, 2003)
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The most heavily impacted areas for both crops are the northern (El Obeid station), western (En Nahud) and Southwestern (Babanusa) parts of the region. Figure (9a& b) shows the crop yield of sorghum in El Obeid and En Nahud stations, indicating a clear decline of sorghum yield in the milestone years.
Figure (9a& b) the crop yield of sorghum in El Obeid and EnNahud

(Source: 1st.National communication, 2003)
El Obe id
Sorgum Yield(kg/ha)
HA DCM 2 BM RC GFDL
1988
2030
2060
Sorgum Yield(Kg/ha)
En Nahud
600 400 200 0 1988 2030 2060 HA DCM 2 BM RC GFDL
3.4 Water resources: Water resources in Kordofan State are highly sensitive to climate variation and fluctuating rainfall. To a large extent, the population of Kordofan is dependent on rainfall to provide water for crops, livestock, and household use. Surface water is a necessary supplement to groundwater use in the region. Since Kordofan does not have permanent stream flow, surface water availability is entirely dependent on rainfall, which is sharply constrained by the duration and variability of the rainy season (generally May through October). During the last two decades, Western Sudan (Kordofan and Darfur States) has witnessed severe drought that has caused loss of human life, crop failure, and considerable loss of livestock. The meteorological data had clearly indicated that recent drought cycles are drier, last longer, cover larger areas, and have shorter non-drought intervals (Sudan Meteorological Authority). For these reasons, water resources in Kordofan are considered a priority, and an essential component of the vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The water assessment indicated that:
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Soil moisture declines under future climate change conditions. The water deficit in Kordofan is predicted to worsen as a result of climate change in milestone years 2030 and 2060, as compared to the historical baseline (1961-1990). Interestingly, the decline in rainfall is only part of the story; the effect of rising temperatures and increased Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) may have the most significant impact.
Acute water stress could be experienced in the year 2060. . Of particular note, the results suggest that in the northern parts of the region the soil moisture deficit could be equivalent to the water holding capacity of the soil in 2060 - a situation of extreme water stress.
The study also concluded that in order to maintain the same water consumption ratio in 2060 as today, 1.9 additional bcm per year will need to be harvested from rainfall or seasonal stream-flow in 2060, for an annual total of 3.7 bcm.
3.5 Human health As the most significant public health concern in Sudan, Malaria was selected as the exposure unit for V&A Assessment. However, the assessment of malaria incidence is constrained by a lack of reliable epidemiological data. Historic records of disease incidence are incomplete, making it impossible to create a reliable picture of baseline (non-climate change) prevalence of malaria. Thus, it is not possible to compare baseline disease incidence against disease incidence projected in a climate change scenario. To overcome data limitations and facilitate an impact assessment, transmission potential (TP) - as opposed to actual numbers of cases of malaria was taken as the focus of the analysis. Higher TP in a given area indicates a higher potential for malaria outbreak. These results, generated by the different models, show that TP in 2060 is more than double the baseline TP, suggesting a doubling of the potential for malaria outbreak during the months of December and January. The risk in 2030 is only slightly less. The assessment concluded that the projected increase in transmission potential, suggests that the changes in temperature and precipitation anticipated under climate change could adversely alter the current distribution and intensity of malaria incidence in Sudan. Based on such potential impacts, the question of climate change impact on malaria - and the most suitable adaptation options - warrants far greater investigation. Important areas for subsequent research will be the adverse economic impacts of malaria in Sudan (under
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both baseline and climate change scenarios), as well as the combined effects of climate and socioeconomic factors on malaria incidence. 4. Future perspectives/ what is needed to improve the utility of FNC? According to a report by the United Nations Frame Work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2000) The guidelines for the preparation of initial national communications by Parties not included in Annex I to the UNFCCC, contained in the annex to decision 10/CP.2, do not provide an adequate framework for the assessment of climate change impacts and identification of adaptation options and strategies. Moreover, they don't provide sufficient information on implementing adaptation measures and/or response strategies and on how these measures and/or strategies should be integrated into the national planning process. These gaps need to be considered in any future climate change impacts assessments. The UNFCCC report also highlighted the fact that; most vulnerability and adaptation assessments and studies in Africa including Sudan of course were centred on a single sector, such as agriculture, health and/or water resources. Meanwhile, the UNFCCC report emphasized the need to pursue a cross-sectoral and multi-sectoral approach to impact assessments in subsequent vulnerability and adaptation studies. This should also be considered in future assessments. The NC should provide a clear response strategy to all climate change related concerns. To provide for this, it should contain some key elements which currently are not well covered, including the information on: Development priorities in Sudan,: this will enable climate change experts identify where to focus their efforts that aim at strengthening the linkages between climate change issues and other development plans and hence put climate change among the priority areas: Imitational arrangements: A clear plan on the organizational setup as well as the legal instruments (regulation, laws) required to carry out climate change related activities. This will ensure a real commitment and clear institutional
responsibilities by different actors involved.
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Annex (16) Overview of climate-related initiatives (See table 4 for a complete list of related initiatives) A number of projects that either focus mainly on climate change or involving climate related activities are implemented in Sudan. The most important in terms of having direct links with the NC are: 1 AIACC-AF14
The V&A assessment conducted as part of the FNC didnt include the potential adaptation measures that can potentially reduce the impacts to current and future changes. This information is essential for effective communication of actions necessary to reduce potential impacts, to the public and decision-makers in order to enable the integration of adaptation aspects in the planning process. Hence to fill the gaps and shortcomings of the vulnerability and adaptation assessment conducted in the above enabling activities, a four-year project has been conducted as part of the "Global Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC)" through GEF/UNEP. This project aims at enhancing the scientific and technical information; assessing the impact of climate change and designing cost-effective response measures which are needed to formulate national policy options. The results generated by AIACC-AF14 project is expected to contribute to the national implementation strategy of the Sudans 1st National Communication to the UNFCCC, as well as the provision of practical lessons for adaptation that can contribute to the Sudans National Adaptation Action plan (NAPA). .2 Sudan National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) A UNDP/GEF Project, entitled National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA), established by the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to assist the least developed countries (LDCs) in assessing and communicating their most urgent adaptation needs. Sudan is going to use the NAPA process to produce a set of adaptation projects that address its highest priorities and to propose for international support in the face of climate change, and the urgent need for adaptation. The NAPA activities included the examining of existing practices of communities to find and document proven measures that are yielding benefits today and could act as viable adaptation options under future climate change. It employed a consultative process to develop criteria and evaluation tools to
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identify adaptations that respond to urgent national needs and to prioritize adaptations. Moreover, policies and institutional processes have been identified and analyzed to allow for the identification of barriers and opportunities to sustainable livelihood. These and other related findings can be taken into consideration when conducting the other NC activities and will assist in the Integration of climate change concerns into national development plans.(HCENR, 2007)
3. Regional Initiatives A number of regional initiatives have been initiated to address climate-change related concerns of Africa example: Climate for Development in Africa, (ClimDev Africa): A new programme, represents an important new initiative that has now been endorsed by the Joint Secretariat that represents a common platform for three continental institutions: the African Union Commission, the African Development Bank, and ECA. Additional partners include GCOS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the United Kingdoms Department for International Development. The ClimDev Africa covers a broad spectrum of climaterelated needs representing an end-to-end programme that will address not only climate observing needs but also development of improved climate services, climate risk management, and policy needs, all with a view to mainstreaming climate considerations into development. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET): USAID supports activities to help developing countries lessen their vulnerability and adapt to climate variability and change. These activities are intended to build more resilience into economic sectors that may be affected by climatic stresses, including agriculture, water, and key livelihood sectors in coastal areas. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) operates in numerous countries in Africa. The program provides decision-makers with information to respond effectively to drought and famine threats by analyzing remotesensing data and ground-based meteorological, crop and rangeland observations to identify early indications of potential famine. Linking Climate Adaptation network (LCA) is an effort to help communities, policymakers, practitioners and academicians share knowledge on climate change adaptation and is funded by DFID. The first phase of the project (May 2004 June 2005)
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identified the role of funding and policy mechanisms in supporting successful community-led adaptation. It also identified longer-term research priorities needed to support community led adaptation in the future. Climate Change Adaptation Support Programme for Action-Research and Capacity Development in Africa (CCAA) programme: Currently, the International Development Research Council (IDRC), Canada, is partnering with the Department for International Development (DFID) in the UK to fund a five-year, $65 million CAD Climate Change Adaptation Support Programme for Action-Research and Capacity Development in Africa (CCAA). Its aim is to support African countries in their efforts to address vulnerability, particularly of the poor, to climate change. Building on current activities and experience, the CCAA programme will strengthen efforts to establish and maintain a skilled body of expertise in Africa to support efforts to cope with climate variability and change with a focus on the poor. Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC): AIACC was developed in collaboration with the UNEP/WMO and IPCC and funded by the GEF to advance scientific understanding of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options in developing countries. By funding collaborative research, training and technical support, AIACC aimed to enhance the scientific capacity of developing countries to assess climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations, and generate and communicate information useful for adaptation planning and actions (AIACC-AF14 Sudan project). NAPA Comparative study: This study documents lessons learned by the NAPA teams in Eastern and Southern Africa.. It is a contribution to several efforts on reviewing experience in climate adaptation, commissioned specifically by the European Capacity Building Initiative with funding from GTZ and other donors. The aim of the study and of the ECBI Policy Analysis Programme, is to build analytic capacity through collaboration with between developing country professionals and European experts. The purpose of this NAPA review/comparison is to initiate a learning process and extract lessons from the NAPAs, through interactive mechanisms of discussions and open dialogues with African NAPA teams and stakeholders. ( for information see)10
10
Elasha, Balgis Osman and Downing, T.E. 2007. Lessons Learned in Preparing National Adaptation Programmes of Action in Eastern and Southern Africa. SEI Oxford working paper. Oxford
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Annex (17) References Ali, A.A.G., (2002), Can the Sudan Reduce Poverty by Half by the Year 2015? API/WPS 0304 -26p Atkinson, M. (2004) Food Security Analysis of Red Seas State, North Sudan. Oxfam. Port Sudan. Aubee, E. and Hussein, K. (2002) Emergency Relief, Crop Diversification and Capacity Building: the case of sesame in the Gambia Disasters 26 (4): 368-379 in Longley, C. (2003) From Relief to Food Security? The challenges of programming for agricultural rehabilitation, FAO International Workshop on Food Security in Complex Emergencies: building policy frameworks to address-longer-term programming challenges Tivoli, 23-25 September 2003 Augusto Pinto, Mubarak Saeed, Hammam El Sakka, Adrienne Rashford, Alessandro Colombo, Marta Valenciano, Guido Sabatinelli (2005). Setting up an early warning system for epidemic-prone diseases in Darfur: a participative approach Disasters 29 (4), 310322. Barton D. and Morton J. (2003), Drought contingency planning for pastoral livelihoods , Policy Series 15 - Natural Resources Institute /University of Greenwich Bior I & Ding B, (2000), Some reflections on Economic Liberalization in SudanSudan Economy Research Group Discussion Paper 90p Brooks, N 2006. Climate change, drought and pastoralism in the Sahel Brooks, N. John G. Hulme M. Huntingford C. Kjellen B., Khler J. Starkey K. and Warren R. 2006, Climate stabilisation and dangerous climate change: A review of the relevant issues P64 Catley A. Tim L. and Suzan B., 2005 Policies, Practice and Participation in Complex Emergencies: The Case of Livestock Interventions in South Sudan-A case study for the Agriculture and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization- Alan Shawn Feinstein International Famine Centre/ School of Nutrition Science and Policy-Tufts University Checchi F, Cox J, Balkan S, Tamrat A, Priotto G, Alberti KP, et al. Malaria epidemics and interventions, Kenya, Burundi, southern Sudan, and Ethiopia, 19992004. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2006 Oct [date cited]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no10/06-0540.htm
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DSilva B. and Olivia T. (2006) Sub-regional integration in Sudan: the key to food security and recovery. Dessai and Hulme, 2004 Climate variability, predictability and climate risks: a European perspective. DFID, 2004, Disaster risk reduction: a development concern A scoping study on links between disaster risk reduction, poverty and development Web page http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/disaster-risk-reduction.pdf
DFID (2004c), Climate Change and Poverty making development resilient to climate change, DFID, London Doss, C., J. McPeak, and C.B. Barrett. 2006. Interpersonal, Intertemporal and Spatial Variation in Risk Perceptions: Evidence from East Africa. Working Paper. Yale University.
El Sakka H., 2005, Malaria Preparedness Plan, Greater Darfur Region, Sudan ENTRO, 2006 One System Inventory- Baseline Environmental Information, A consultancy Report prepared by Osman ElashaEos, Vol. 84, No. 35, 2 September 2003 PAGES 337, 341 FAO, 2005, Assessment of the World Food Security Situation- Committee on World Food Security 31st. Session. FAO, 2007, Crop Prospects and Food Situation- No3 FCCC/SBI/2000/INF.9, 2000 Report of the regional workshop of the Consultative Group of Experts on national communications from non-Annex I Parties of the African region
FCCC/SBSTA/2004/INF.13 Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth Stanton , 2006)- Climate Change the Costs of Inaction /Report to Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University
Funk, C., G. Senay, A. Asfaw, J. Verdin, J. Rowland, J. Michaelson, G. Eilerts, D. Korecha and R. Choularton. 2005. Recent drought tendencies in Ethiopia and equatorial-subtropical eastern Africa. Washington DC, FEWS-NET in WWF, 2006 Climate Change Impacts on East Africa- A Review of the Scientific Literature
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GCOS (2006) Climate information for development needs and action plan for Africa report and implementation Strategy --GCOS 108/ (WMO/TD No. 1358) 99p HCENR (2002) Sudan's First National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Climate Change Enabling Project SUD/95/G31
HCENR (2007) National Plan of Action (NAPA) GEF/UNDP UNFCCC Hewitson, (2003.), Developing Perturbations for Climate Change Impact Assessments Hulme, M. (1989)The Changing Rainfall Resources of Sudan Hulme, M. (2001), Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973-1998. Global Environmental Change 11: 19-29.
Hulme, M., Conway, D., Xianfu, L. (2003), Climate change: an overview and its impacts on the living lakes. A Report Prepared for the Eighth Living Lakes Conference. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. 51pp. In Conway, D. 2003.
Hussein, K. (2002) Livelihoods Approaches Compared: a multi-agency review of current practice, study commissioned by DFID, Overseas Development Institute, London (available at http://www.livelihoods.org/static/khussein_NN165.html
IPCC (2001a) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC (2001b) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report; Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by R.T. Watson and the Core Writing Team. Cambridge University Press.
IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the 4th. Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Longley, C. (2003) From Relief to Food Security? The challenges of programming for agricultural rehabilitation, FAO International Workshop on Food Security in
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Complex Emergencies: building policy frameworks to address-longer-term programming challenges Tivoli, 23-25 September 2003 Magadza, C. H. D. 2000. Climate change impacts and human settlements in Africa: Prospects for adaptation. Environmental Monitoring And Assessment 61, 193-205. Matus, J.,(2006), Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan Brief, USDA, MOE & HCENR, 2007, National Plan for Environmental Management in Post Conflict Sudan- European Commission, NILE TEAP and UNEP,108p Morton, J. (1993) Pastoral decline and famine: the Beja case. J. Markakis (ed.) Conflict and the Decline of Pastoralism in the Horn of Africa. MacMillan. London: and ISS. The Hague. Osman-Elasha B. N.G. Elhasssan, H. Ahmed, and S. Zakieldin. (2005).: Sustainable livelihood approach for assessing community resilience to climate change: case studies from Sudan. Working Paper No. 17 (AIACC Project No. AF14) Osman-Elasha B.(2005) Integration of local adaptation measures with national plans to reduce vulnerability / Examples from Sudan 1st.National Communication, and AIACC AF14 Project.-6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research community /University of Bonn, Germany, 9-13 October 2005 Osman-Elasha. B (to be published in 2007), Vulnerability of livelihoods to climate variability and change in the Arid and Semi arid areas / Case study from Sudan Roessig, J. M., C. M. Woodley, J. J. Cech, Jr., and L. J. Hansen. 2004. Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 14: 251-275 in WWF, 2006 Climate Change Impacts on East Africa- A Review of the Scientific Literature Sach j. (2006) War Climates TomPaine http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/hunger/environment/2006/1023sachsclimate. htm Sara, P. (2006) from food aid to livelihoods support: rethinking the role of WFP in eastern Sudan Overseas Development Institute. Journal compilation Shiva, V. 2002. Water Wars. Pluto Press, London. In Brooks, N. John G. Hulme M. Huntingford C. Kjellen B., Khler J. Starkey K. and Warren R. 2006, Climate stabilisation and dangerous climate change: A review of the relevant issues 64 P
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Annex (18) Table (3) technical gaps in the First National Communication
Technical gaps
Data-related
Vulnerability Assessment
and
Adaptation GHG inventory

Data availability, reliability and computability Emission factors & other default values used in GHG inventory Incomplete records Not in the detailed format required by the climate studies Not consistent across sectors Problem of accessibility and data exchange Calculations and reporting of uncertainties related to GHG estimates Default values ( emission factors, activity data) Uncertainty in emission estimates (How to manage and minimize its effect).
Mitigation analysis
Data availability, reliability and computability Incomplete Not in the detailed format required by the climate studies Not considered across sectors Problem of accessibility and data exchange Lack of adequate capacity to process and manage data Question of reliability
Data availability, reliability and computability Incomplete Not in the detailed format required by the climate studies Not considered across sectors Problem of accessibility and data exchange There is no adequate capacity to process and manage data Regional data for comparability is not easily found if not at all ( e.g. data on socio-economic scenario) Question of reliability
Methodological
Capacity skills
and
Limited knowledge regarding climate scenarios (selection of GCMs and downscaling of outputs.. etc) Impact models ( availability and technical knowhow Inadequate knowledge on different types and uses of impact models which is essential for V&A assessment. Selection and testing of GCMs using MAGICC/SCGEN. Downscaling methods for GCMs outputs. Projection of socio-economic and environment factors (selection of socio-economic indicators, modeling tools) Capacities created by the Climate Change Project within the relevant sectors considered insufficient in relation to modeling and use of computer model ( impact, projection)
Inadequate knowledge of long-term projection and scenario development (business as usual, socioeconomic scenario elements and driving forces and Variable considered ).
There is no adequate capacity to process and manage data Available models & software required 92
Capacities created by the Climate Change Project within the relevant sectors considered insufficient in relation to modeling and use of computer model (
January, 2009
Lack of relevant technical expertise ( projection, impact assessment, modeling) Inadequate facilities within the relevant institution. Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited number of trained personnel from within the climate related sectors

more training and understanding Inadequate facilities within the relevant institution. Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited number of trained personnel from within the climate related sectors Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited number of trained personnel from within the climate related sectors impact, projection) Lack of relevant technical expertise ( projection, impact assessment, modeling) Inadequate facilities within the relevant institution. Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited number of trained personnel from within the climate related sectors
Others
Adaptation assessment: Selection ( identification and screening) Assessment (cost effectiveness, applicability) Resources &time limitations Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited number of trained personnel from within the climate related sectors
Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited number of trained personnel from within the climate related sectors
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Project Focus Climate Change/ Mitigation Objectives

Implementing agency State Ministry of Agriculture + committees from Local communities Funding agency UNDP/GEF Geographical coverage Gereigikh Rural Council -Bara province/ North Kordofan State of Western Sudan
Annex (19) Table (4) List of climate change-related initiatives in Sudan

was to implement a simple model of community-based natural resource management to prevent overexploitation and degradation, of marginal lands and rehabilitate rangelands for the purpose of carbon sequestration. It also sought to encourage biodiversity preservation, reduction of dust storms, and reduction of the risks of production failure in this drought-prone area by providing alternatives for sustainable production Fostering human resource development in order to effectively deal with climate change and address its global and national consequences and implications.
Community Based Rangeland Rehabilitation for Carbon Sequestration (1994-2000)
Climate Change Enabling Project (Capacity Building to Enable the Sudans Response and Communication to the UNFCCC) 1998-2002 Expedited Financing of Climate Change Enabling Activities (Phase II) 2002-2003 AIACC-AF14 (Environmental Strategies to increase Human Resilience to Climate Change, lessons for Eastern and North Africa)- 20022006 Barrier Removal to Secure PV Market Penetration in Semi-Urban Sudan 2001-2005 National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)- 2005-2007
Climate Change/ Capacity development
Climate Change Unit at the HCENR and SEI-Boston
UNDP/GEF
National Sudan
project-
Climate Change/ capacity building Climate change/ adaptation
additional financing for capacity Change Unit at the HCENR UNDP/GEF and SEI-Boston building in priority areas
To demonstrate a method for generating information on effective resiliencebuilding activities, and raise the profile of such activities within the climate adaptation and broader development communities. Promoting the use of alternative energies mainly solar energy in semiurban areas in Sudan Serve as a simplified and direct channel of communication for information 94 Climate Change Unit at the HCENR and SEI-Boston GEF, CIDA, USEPAExecuted by UNEP, START, TWAS & IPCC UNDP/GEF
National- Sudan
Climate Change/ Mitigation and adaptation Climate Change/ adaptation
Ministry Mining
of
Energy
and
Climate Change Unit at the HCENR and SEI-Boston
UNDP/GEF
Gedarif State in Eastern Sudan and Kordofan in Western Sudan National- Sudan
January, 2009

related to the urgent and immediate adaptation needs of the Sudan. Multi-focal areas/ Climate change, biodiversity and desertification
National Capacity Self-Assessment (NCSA) for Global Environment Management- 2003-2007
Assess the National Capacity building needs to implement the three environmental conventions ("Climate Change", "Desertification" & "Biodiversity".
HCENR
UNDP/GEF
National-Sudan
95

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January, 2009

Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha

Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha

Photo: by Dr. Mohamed El Gamri /Sudan UniversityKhartoum

Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha

Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha

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1 State of Environment in Sudan

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2. Current scientific knowledge

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Climate variability localized recurrent drought

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Arid land Erratic rainfall Seasonal floods

Northern States(El Neil and Northern States)

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change as derived from different scenario

See the figure below 5 20

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Figure (1) the relative vulnerability to drought 1990-2000 Source: UNEP-GRID/Geneva

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3) Physical and Socio Economic Impacts & implications

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Fertile soil along the bank of the river 29

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Estimates for 2005 indicate that

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Rainfall in ElFashir 1930-2000

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Both presented an opportunity for Sudan to

undertake a bottom-up assessment of

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4.1 Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AICC-AF14) Project

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5. Early warning and short-term forecasting

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into risks of food

shortages and human crisis, because it interact with other risks

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Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha