Fluctuations: Big eruptions also translate into various energy particles that are transforming at the surface of the

earth and energy changes at the surface of the earth; so it is possible that solar energy activities can have some influence on the temperature of the earth. Image: Looking at fluctuations of temperature from a base line In 1500s there were only astrologists; looking at the stars and they were recording major events and these lack of records were interpreted as lack of sun spots. If a little bit later delta C14 was established and connected to the mechanism of the sun; the mechanism of it forming on the surface of the earth is associated with the arrival of charged particles from the sun. Increase in C14 is matching increasing solar activity in terms of sun spots. Past records started to match the observations of the solar activity; good correlation; low C14 (periods with no sun spots recorded) and high C14 with the sun spots

Showing that the solar activity can have an influence on the temperature; the buffering capacity of the ocean/solar atmosphere wont lead to changes right away It is not immediate changes; if over decades the sun activity is fairly high this will translate in some changes of the temperature. Medieval ice age periods Now we are living in a period with temperatures seem to be a little bit higher. Very small changes over time in 2 years. Yes human and human activity is not the only reason that climate and temperature is changing but there are natural basis for these changes.

**Influence of the suns activity** 1. can translate into decades of shifts of temperatures 2. Sun is emitting the same amount but the Earth is moving; the axis around which the earth is rotating/spinning is changing

Fluctuations Milankovitch cycles o Fluctuations that are occurring the earth is changing its orbiting around the sun changing at the level of insulation o When the earth is closest to the sun and when it is farthest away from the sun on this elipse. o Questions: What is the relation between the Aphelion and Perihelion? Is there a direct relation between the Solstice and Perihelion?

What controls the Solstice; the way that the axis is pointing towards the sun When the winter solstice is occurring (northern hemisphere) axis is pointing away from the sun; but at the same time the Earth is at the Perihelion (closer location to the sun) => Close to the sun will warm up things ; warm winters The earth and inclination of the axis will change over time; will migrate There are periods where the winter solstice with happen at the Aphelion (adding affect; particularly cold winter) Servian mathematician, Milutin Milankovitch) In the Earths orbit

Image: Cycles of the Earth

Three major cycles: Eccentricity cycle: controlling how elongated the elipse is on which the earth is circulating on (elipse will fluctuate; become more or less elongated; will recover every 100,000 years) * When Earth is at perihelion and eccentricity cycle the sun will be really far away. Every 50,000 years when the Earth is at the perihelion; the cooling will be more pronounced than in the situation when the orbit is getting rounder. * *Less elongated; earth as it is turning will be relatively closer on both sides*

Influence the amount of solar radiation Small changes will increase to the square of the radiation of the suns affect on the earth Obliquity Cycle: the angle between the axis around which the earth is spinning; the axis is more or less tilted every thousand years; *when very tilted/slanted; the difference between winters and summers will be much more accentuated (northern hemisphere; everything in the mirror for southern hemisphere) The tilted axis; the pole will be hidden away from the sun for longer periods of time. *if this rotation axis becomes almost perpendicular; the difference between winters and summers will decrease a lot; much more buffered; milder winters and milder summers Precession of the Equinoxes: Gyroscope will make a complete turn around its vertical axis; *in 20,000 years is the time that it takes for the earth to recover the position it is at now *in 10,000 years the earth will be at the aphelion and have colder winters;; will change from having winters at perihelion to winters at amphelion

Insolation = (INcident SOLar radiation) sun is perpendicular; the insolation is 100% of the amount of sun energy arriving on the surface of the earth Changes in Insolation due to the rotations and tilting of the planet; is leading to major changes in the climate of the Earth

At different latitudes Calculated by Berger (1991) and Laskar (1993) In the Northern Hemisphere peak summer insolation occurred about 9,000 years ago The last of the large ice sheets melted Since that time Northern Hemisphere summers have seen less solar radiation

Fluctuations: The phase difference between the two paleoclimatic time series

Images with waves: the impact or the influence of the red to blue will be cumulative. (in phase) The impact of the out of phase waves will cancel out the changes (out of phase) The impact of the slightly out of phase waves *Graph Image* a very good periodicity in the major changes of temperatures of the Earth; linked to the realtion between the Earth on the orbit and the sun. concentration of CO2 and the increasing temperatures over very short periods of time; short period of time has not been seen before; ecological perspective = lack the time to adapt! Wont have time to re-establish new populations; re-location/re-adaptation; will lead to faster extinction March 9th 2012 Isotopic dating Icecaps can remain in place and not exchange gases with the atmosphere; this makes them good indicators of past atmospheric conditions

Isotopic dating and Paleoclimate Oxygen delta 18 O oxygen comes into isotopes; naturally occurring; the ratio between these two isotopes can be either found in ice traps, molecules, packages of air Or we can find them in analyzing the ratio of molecules found in the tiny shells of forminifera Biogenic sediments The most important of these animals: foraminifera these use carbonates from the water; has the same oxygen signature (ratio b/w O18 & O16) as long as this CaCO3 is not dissolved it will preserve the relationships between the two isotopes forever. Tiny shells of CaCO3 The dating of specific layers can be fairly easily inferred by looking at the specific formula for foraminiferas in a specific sample; helps to determine the age of the species; then you can analyze for the stable isotopes of the oxygen Time the specific deposit was formed Fact that 18O is heavier; is instrumental in using it to estimate past temperatures Will tend to evaporate less easily and will precipitate faster

How to calculate delta 18O:

Why minus 1? Positive when 18O is higher than in the standard => positive values Delta 18O is going to be directly related to high values of 18O in the sample 16

O evaporates more readily Enriched in ice Leaves ocean relatively enriched in 18O (higher values of delta 18O) when there is a lot of ice

the water vapours will be transported and precipitate stuff that will be higher in 16O; will trap the lighter water (16O) and leave behind heavier water (18O)
18

O and 16O are naturally occurring; their ratio can serve as an indicator of past temperatures Image of evaporation of Oxygens:

Have an increase in O18 in the sediments because the O16 is trapped in the ice and will leave high O18 in the ocean Glaciations will be identified in a profile of high delta O18 in sediments and high delta O18 in the oceans Ratio is going to drop

 Mechanism can give us a fairly good indication of the past temperatures 0.2 parts per million decrease for each degree of temp increase

Complication delta 18O: Temperature, evaporation, rainfall, and indeed the amount of glacial ice Important to understand the changes of climate in the Earths history Other factors such as pollen grains; (at level of ice caps) can travel for very long distances and arrive at the ice caps and are trapped; studying the anatomy of pollen grains can give us insight into what type of vegetation was dominant at that time on the surface of the earth deposits (ice shields when they are retreating leave certain deposits) can give us a good indication of when glaciers were present and when they retreated Delta 18O, diff types of pollen accumulates, other biological indications of past climates allow insight into past temps, climates, etc. Climate Change in Historical times: Phil Jones : Time series graph shows the combined global and marine surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. According to the method of calculation used by CRU, the year 2011 was the twelfth warmest on record.

Berkeley Earth Team: Berkeley Earth Temperature Averaging Allows one to include short and discontinuous temperature records Weighting method for quality and consistency This permits data with varying levels of quality to be used without compromising the accuracy Temperature reconstruction form 1800 to present Global and mean temperature has increased by 0.911 +/- 0.042 C since the 1950s Consistent with global land-surface warming results previously reported, but with reduced uncertainty

Human Influence on the Climate system Combustion of fossil fuels Introduces carbon that was taken out of the system in its reduced form Biomass burning

Production of greenhouse gases

We are living in a 20% oxygen atmosphere; the same amount of CO2 emitted and O2 consumed will have much more impact on the CO2 reservoir than the O2 one Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) measures the climate changes; they are not producing data but they compile the information from already-peer review literature Land-Use change: Deforestation Urbanisation Forestry Agriculture

Carbon not utilized by decomposers because it is sinking to the bottom of the ocean getting buried into a vast reservoir which is the ocean After the industrial Revolution; the amount of CO2 increased by more than 30%, or 0.4% / year CH4 and N2O also increased due to industrial and agricultural processes

Where is the accumulation of CO2 coming from? Deforestation and fossil-fuel use! Massive development in Eastern Asian countries which increases their contributions to pollution Energy related CO2 emissions: Electricity is the highest (comes from two major sources; fossil-fuels and nuclear energy) If we stop the production of CF4 when do you think we will see a positive effect? After more than 50,000 years. Its a combination between the residence time of specific cmpd, amnt in atmosphere (concentration), and its capacity to store energy. Sources of the methane: Rice patties (thermophilic methanogens) Ruminants: 6 Mtons CH4 Burning methane: converting methane to CO2; at least release it as CO2 into the atmosphere

Negative Feedbacks in the Earth System: 1. Increase of water vapour in the atmosphere cloud formation

Reduce transmission/absorbance Increase reflection Decrease Temperature

2. Warmer temps; more algae in the oceans less CO2 in the atmosphere 3. More CO2 more plants less CO2 in the atmosphere 4. Warm air more moisture polar regions receive more precipitation snow; less heat absorbed by the increase in the coverage of the reflective surface can also function as a positive feedback system; also melting the ice; diminishing the surface covered by ice; the more it melts the more energy will trapped by the earth and the warmer it will get Ice shield is a dynamic feedback system Positive Feedbacks: 1. Increase of water vapour in the atmosphere (loss of snow and sea ice) less reflective Glacier decline 2. Increase of water vapour in the atmosphere
higher air and ocean temperatures

3. Melting of permafrost Boreal regions Release of CH4, CO2 With melting of permafrost ; decomposed into CO2 and also methane more permafrost is melted more methane and CO2 are released; warmer it gets More permafrost that is melted

Image: Overall implications of the budget of the earth is going to be very limited; 2002 ; amount of ice melting; enter into the positive feedback systems; a lot of energy is stored and trapped by artic ocean; expose the normal permafrost to the sun