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DEVELOPING NIGERIAN OIL AND GAS

PIPELINES USING MULTI-CRITERIA


DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA)

Adewumi Rowland, MSc


SIRAJ Consulting Engineers, Plot 3162b, IBB Way – Maitama,
Abuja
National Engineering Conference and Annual General Meeting
(Gateway 2006): Technological and National Content
Development for Economic Self-Reliance
Introduction
The Nigerian oil and gas industry is, as of today a
century old, with over 5000Km of oil and gas
pipelines…………. However, a look over the oil and
gas pipelines that criss-cross the country clearly
reveals an image of mismanagement and
inappropriate consideration for the local communities.
Practices, such as pipeline explosions put the general
environment, ecosystem, and public health in great
danger.

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a procedure for


evaluating options on conflicting and inter-related
criteria for decision making, and the eventual
combination of the resulting separate evaluations and
options into one overall evaluation design process
(Keeney, et al 1976; Mollaghasemi and Pet-Edwards
1997; Jankowski 1995). MCAD have been used to
solve various route and site selection problems (Badri
AIM AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of this paper is to locate the best


oil and gas pipeline route using multi
criteria decision-making process, by
considering basic, physical,
environmental, political and economic
constraints in the oil and gas producing
area of the Niger Delta.

To use GIS spatial decision-thinking


process to model alternatives pipeline
routes for optimum routes design by
developing a decision support system
using primary survey and GIS spatial
design and Analysis
The study area is
in the Delta state
of Nigeria. This
area lies between
longitudes 5000
and 6045 E and
latitudes 5000 and
6030 N. 15 to 20
per cent of the
entire Niger Delta
lies in Delta State.
The study area
Warri North has a total land
area of 16,842
Warri South km2. Over 70% of
Warri South West
the population
Burutu
Ughelli South
live in rural areas
Patani
Bombadi (Siral International,
2000).
CRITERIA DESIGN
Houses

Roads
Criteria – the pipeline route should…
 Avoid villages/cities/town areas

Sensitive Areas
 Avoid areas that are far from roads
Railways

 Avoid areas within or near sensitive areas

 Avoid railway routes and networks

Avoid areas within or near airports

Avoid networks of streams and rivers

Avoid areas of political warring zones

Avoid areas far from Refinery location


(Berry)
METHODOLOGY

PRIMARY SURVEY
Primary survey implemented used a questionnaire to secure
the participation of the civil society for the development of
weight to prioritise selected criteria.

DATA ACQUISITION
The following ArcGIS shape files were obtained from
publications, research and projects done by SIRAJ Consulting
Engineers.
Criterion weighting: Pairwise Comparison
Method
In this study, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied in
choosing optimal weights for the criteria. This enables criteria
alternatives to be compared.

Overview of Saaty’s approach


Let X = {x1, x2, ...., xn} be a set of elements, priorities for the
elements of X which requires that a number; denoted wij be
assigned to each pair of elements (xi, xj); this will represent
decision numerically, by given a real number between 1
(inclusive) and 10 (exclusive) to rate the relative preferences for
two given criteria
In Saaty’s (1980) procedure, a positive
reciprocal matrix is denoted in one line,
and in one column denoting each element
x1, x2, ..., xn of X. The table is thus filled
by inserting at the intersection of the line
of xi with the column of xj the number
required for each criterion.
Using Malczewiski’s (1999) concept, this step involves, (a) summing
Values in each column of the matrix; (b) divide each element in the
matrix by its column total; and (c) calculating the average of all
elements in each row of “ (b)” above, and diving the sum scores for
each row by 9 (the numbers of criteria).
RESULTS
PRIMARY DATA AND ANALYSIS
Pre-prepared questionnaire was distributed to about 200
decision makers, tradition chiefs, company executives
and individuals. The survey yielded only 48 completed
surveys.
APPLICATION RESULTS

The red areas represent lower values for areas, which are not suitable
for pipeline routes. Pairwise comparison method was used for
weighting the various layers, which was consider the most critical part
in decision support models.
The criteria were standardized to a common numeric range and then
combined by weighted averaging, giving a final map: Red area indicates
absolutely non-acceptable zones, Greenish-Yellow area implying more
suitable zones for routing pipeline.
Discussion
INTRODUCTION
Certain criteria were neglected in selection of
routes for oil pipeline facilities due to lack of
adequate data. These criteria include, impacts
on wild life, geologic faults, groundwater
depth, ecological floodplains, and international
acceptance.

DATA INTEGRATION ISSUES


In developing countries, most secondary
datasets do not have metadata for helpful
determination of appropriate data requirement
for a given task.
CONCLUSION
This paper is a right step towards the utilisation of multi-criteria
decision analysis in studying and planning for oil and gas
pipelines routes in Nigeria.

The recent proposed Trans-Saharan gas pipeline project been


sponsored by Nigeria and the World Bank been laid from the
study area to the north of the country and about 4000 kilometres
to be laid into the European market will enhance local content
development if MCDA are integrated into the project from
inception.

Conducting and implementing MCDA design from inception report


to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for every potential oil
and gas pipeline routes

Another tool can be developed to address the MCDA strategy at


the local level utilising the knowledge of the local resident, silent
and influential political decision makers.
“…although the shape of things to come is not yet
entirely clear . . . there can be no doubt that the
next few years will bring the realisation of new
substantial pipeline schemes, and, consequently, of
further improvements of the transport of petroleum
…”
…..(Margaret 1964)

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