Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Wewt
Wewt............................................................................................................................................................................................................1
Prolif Now – Kinshasa.................................................................................................................................................................................3
Prolif Bad Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................................................4
Prolif Bad Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................................................5
Prolif Bad Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................................................7
Prolif Bad Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................................................8
Prolif Bad Frontline...................................................................................................................................................................................10
Prolif Bad Frontline...................................................................................................................................................................................11
Ext. Miscalculation Inevitable...................................................................................................................................................................12
Ext. Miscalculation Inevitable...................................................................................................................................................................13
Ext. Miscalculation Inevitable...................................................................................................................................................................14
Ext. Military Pre-emption.....................................................................................................................................................................15
AT: Small Arms Races...............................................................................................................................................................................16
Safety Problems….....................................................................................................................................................................................17
Safety Problems.........................................................................................................................................................................................18
Safety Problems.........................................................................................................................................................................................19
Safety Problems.........................................................................................................................................................................................20
Safety Problems.........................................................................................................................................................................................21
Safety Problems.........................................................................................................................................................................................22
Safety Problems.........................................................................................................................................................................................23
Safety Problems.........................................................................................................................................................................................24
Prolif Good Frontline.................................................................................................................................................................................25
Prolif Good Frontline.................................................................................................................................................................................26
Prolif Good Frontline.................................................................................................................................................................................27
Prolif Good Frontline.................................................................................................................................................................................28
Prolif Good Frontline.................................................................................................................................................................................29
Prolif Good Frontline.................................................................................................................................................................................30
Prolif Good Frontline.................................................................................................................................................................................31
Prolif Good Frontline.................................................................................................................................................................................32
Ext. Deterrence..........................................................................................................................................................................................34
Ext. Deterrence..........................................................................................................................................................................................35
AT: Small States Can’t Deter Big States....................................................................................................................................................36
AT: Small States Can’t Deter Big States....................................................................................................................................................37
AT: Small States Reckless..........................................................................................................................................................................38
AT: Small States Reckless..........................................................................................................................................................................39
AT: New Prolif Won’t Be Opaque.............................................................................................................................................................40
AT: New Prolif Won’t Be Opaque.............................................................................................................................................................41
AT: Preemption..........................................................................................................................................................................................42
AT: Preemption..........................................................................................................................................................................................43
AT: Time to learn.......................................................................................................................................................................................44
AT: Prolif Arms Races..........................................................................................................................................................................45
AT: Prolif Arms Races..........................................................................................................................................................................46
AT: Prolif Arms Races..........................................................................................................................................................................47
AT: Prolif Arms Races..........................................................................................................................................................................48
AT: Crazy Leaders.....................................................................................................................................................................................49
AT: Crazy Leaders.....................................................................................................................................................................................50
AT: Crazy Leaders.....................................................................................................................................................................................51
AT: Crazy Leaders.....................................................................................................................................................................................53
AT: Crazy Leaders.....................................................................................................................................................................................54
AT: Crazy Leaders.....................................................................................................................................................................................55
AT: Military Control Bad...........................................................................................................................................................................56
AT: Military Control Bad...........................................................................................................................................................................57
AT: Blackmail............................................................................................................................................................................................58
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
AT: Prolif Escalation / Miscalculation..................................................................................................................................................59
AT: Prolif Escalation / Miscalculation..................................................................................................................................................60
AT: Nuclear Multipolarity bad / Hostile Pairs...........................................................................................................................................62
AT: Terrorists Steal.....................................................................................................................................................................................63
AT: Terrorists Steal.....................................................................................................................................................................................65
AT: Just Waltz Advocates...........................................................................................................................................................................66
Flawed Logic.............................................................................................................................................................................................67
Terrorism Frontline....................................................................................................................................................................................68
Terrorism Frontline....................................................................................................................................................................................69
Terrorism Frontline....................................................................................................................................................................................70
Terrorism Frontline....................................................................................................................................................................................71
Ext. No Nukes............................................................................................................................................................................................72
Ext. No Attack – Self-interest....................................................................................................................................................................73
Ext. No Attack – Self-interest....................................................................................................................................................................74
AT: Russia..................................................................................................................................................................................................75
AT: Other Explanations..............................................................................................................................................................................76
KILL TURNER!
Prolif good – only way to solve east asian nuclear war
Layne 98 – search Charles Olney’s cites
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Given the details that have unfolded thus far regarding the current allegations of uranium smuggling from the DRC, there is reason to
question whether the arrested individuals were, in fact, involved in illicit uranium procurement activities. However, these cases do call
attention to the continued risk posed by imperfect controls over nuclear material in the DRC. The fact that Congolese officials could
not readily determine whether uranium fuel rods were missing from the Kinshasa Center for Nuclear Studies suggests that nuclear
accounting measures at the site are less than optimal. Although it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the theft from the facility
of uranium fuel enriched to less than 20 percent might contribute to the development of a nuclear weapon, irradiated spent fuel is a
radioactive material potentially usable in a dirty bomb. The illicit acquisition of uranium ore could also provide countries seeking
nuclear weapons that are subject to monitoring by the IAEA with a source of uranium that might elude the agency’s inspection system.
Previous uranium procurement activities, however, have been focused on the acquisition of milled uranium, rather than natural
uranium ore. [17]
Although IAEA assistance has facilitated improvements in nuclear safety and security in the DRC since the end of the country’s civil
war in 2003, the DRC is facing the dual challenge of needing new capacity to meet internationally recognized nuclear security
standards, at a time when further development of its nuclear regulatory infrastructure is receiving a low priority domestically. Given
the nature of the agreements with Brinkley Mining, it appears that the British firm may be in a position to assist in building that
capacity. In addition, continued participation in IAEA initiatives, cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy with regard to the
return of spent fuel, and obtaining international assistance to help Kinshasa implement UN Security Council Resolution 1540
(requiring all states to adopt effective measures to protect nuclear materials) are all steps that can help alleviate some of the recurring
concerns regarding the security of the DRC’s nuclear resources. [18]
Terrorists are already going in to steal uranium from the Kinshasa reactor.
Reuters, 3/08/07, Joe Bavier, "Congo scientist planned to export uranium-minister,"
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L0845529.htm
A government minister in Congo on Thursday accused the country's top nuclear research official, arrested earlier this week, of
belonging to an international network set up to mine and export uranium illegally.
Professor Fortunat Lumu, Commissioner General for Atomic Energy in Democratic Republic of Congo, was arrested this week with
another official after a Kinshasa newspaper reported that uranium had gone missing from an atomic institute in the city.
Minister of Scientific Research Sylvanus Mushi, who was recently appointed to Congo's new government, said Lumu and a colleague
had illegally negotiated partnership deals with foreign companies without proper government authorisation.
"It was a group of people coming from all over the world, from Europe, from South Africa, from the Seychelles, who completely
ignored Congolese authority and law with the goal of getting their hands on very sensitive material: uranium and other radioactive
minerals," he told reporters.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
WMD terrorism against the U.S. ends the world – It collapses the economy and triggers nuclear war with
Russia, China and North Korea
Jerome Corsi, PhD from Harvard, 2005, Atomic Iran, 176-178
The
In the span of less than one hour, the nation's largest city will have been virtually wiped off the map. Removal of debris will take several years, and recovery may never fully happen.
damage to the nation's economy will be measured in the trillions of dollars, and the loss of the country's major financial and business
center may reduce America immediately to a second-class status. The resulting psychological impact will bring paralysis throughout the land for an indefinite period
of time. The president may not be able to communicate with the nation for days, even weeks, as television and radio systems struggle to come back on line. No natural or man-made
disaster in history will compare with the magnitude of damage that has been done to New York City in this one horrible day. The United States retaliates:
'End of the world' scenarios The combination of horror and outrage that will surge upon the nation will demand that the president retaliate for
the incomprehensible damage done by the attack. The problem will be that the president will not immediately know how to respond or against whom. The perpetrators will
have been incinerated by the explosion that destroyed New York City. Unlike 9-11, there will have been no interval during the attack when those hijacked could make phone calls to loved ones
telling them before they died that the hijackers were radical Islamic extremists. There will be no such phone calls when the attack will not have been anticipated until the instant the terrorists
detonate their improvised nuclear device inside the truck parked on a curb at the Empire State Building. Nor will there be any possibility of finding any clues, which either were vaporized
instantly or are now lying physically inaccessible under tons of radioactive rubble. Still, the president, members of Congress, the military, and the public at large
will suspect another attack by our known enemy – Islamic terrorists. The first impulse will be to launch a nuclear strike on Mecca, to
destroy the whole religion of Islam. Medina could possibly be added to the target list just to make the point with crystal clarity. Yet what would we gain? The moment Mecca and
Medina were wiped off the map, the Islamic world – more than 1 billion human beings in countless different nations – would feel
attacked. Nothing would emerge intact after a war between the United States and Islam. The apocalypse would be upon us. Then, too, we
would face an immediate threat from our long-term enemy, the former Soviet Union. Many in the Kremlin would see this as an opportunity to grasp the victory
that had been snatched from them by Ronald Reagan when the Berlin Wall came down. A missile strike by the Russians on a score of
American cities could possibly be pre-emptive. Would the U.S. strategic defense system be so in shock that immediate retaliation
would not be possible? Hardliners in Moscow might argue that there was never a better opportunity to destroy America. In China, our
newer Communist enemies might not care if we could retaliate. With a population already over 1.3 billion people and with their population not concentrated in a few major cities, the
Chinese might calculate to initiate a nuclear blow on the United States. What if the United States retaliated with a nuclear counterattack upon China? The Chinese
might be able to absorb the blow and recover. The North Koreans might calculate even more recklessly. Why not launch upon America the few
missiles they have that could reach our soil? More confusion and chaos might only advance their position. If Russia, China, and the United States
could be drawn into attacking one another, North Korea might emerge stronger just because it was overlooked while the great nations focus on attacking one another. So, too, our
supposed allies in Europe might relish the immediate reduction in power suddenly inflicted upon America. Many of the great egos in
Europe have never fully recovered from the disgrace of World War II, when in the last century the Americans a second time in just over two decades had been
forced to come to their rescue. If the French did not start launching nuclear weapons themselves, they might be happy to fan the diplomatic fire
beginning to burn under the Russians and the Chinese. Or the president might decide simply to launch a limited nuclear strike on
Tehran itself. This might be the most rational option in the attempt to retaliate but still communicate restraint. The problem is that a strike on Tehran would add more nuclear devastation to
the world calculation. Muslims around the world would still see the retaliation as an attack on Islam, especially when the United States had no positive proof that
the destruction of New York City had been triggered by radical Islamic extremists with assistance from Iran. But for the president not to retaliate might be
unacceptable to the American people. So weakened by the loss of New York, Americans would feel vulnerable in every city in the nation. "Who is going to be next?" would be
the question on everyone's mind. For this there would be no effective answer. That the president might think politically at this instant seems almost petty, yet every president is by nature a
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
politician. The political party in power at the time of the attack would be destroyed unless the president retaliated with a nuclear strike against
somebody. The American people would feel a price had to be paid while the country was still capable of exacting revenge.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Asian rearm causes accidental war that draws in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Russia, triggering global
nuclear conflict
Joseph Cirincione, director of non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 2K
“Nuclear Chain Reaction” Foreign Affairs
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Sagan uses organizational theory to reinforce this position by demonstrating the failures of both man and machine in Cold War crises
that could have inadvertently caused a nuclear war.11
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Safety Problems…
Many safety problems…underline it yourself
Scott Sagan, professor of political science at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford's Center for
International Security and Cooperation, won three teaching awards for his undergraduate lecture courses
at Stanford, 2003, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate”
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Safety Problems
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Safety Problems
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Safety Problems
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Safety Problems
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Safety Problems
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Safety Problems
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Safety Problems
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
2. Nuclear umbrella fails in Asia – other powers doubt the US’s security commitment, causing them to test
its resolve which escalates to nuclear war.
Christopher Layne, fellow of the Center For Science and International Affairs at Harvard, "Minimal Realism
in East Asia," The National Interest, Spring, 1996
Extended nuclear deterrence has always been a difficult strategy to implement successfully because deterring an attack on one's allies
is harder than deterring an attack on oneself. This is doubly true when the potential aggressor is a nuclear power because, as Charles
de Gaulle reasoned well, rational states will not risk suicide to save their allies. For both protector and protected, extended nuclear
deterrence raises constant and ultimately insoluble dilemmas of credibility and reassurance.
The conditions that contributed to successful extended nuclear deterrence in Cold War Europe do not exist in post-Cold War East Asia.
Unlike the situation that prevailed in Europe between 1948 and 1990 -- which was fundamentally stable and static -- East Asia is a
volatile region in which all the major players -- Japan, China, Korea, Russia, Vietnam -- are candidates to become involved in large-
scale war. There is no clear and inviolable status quo. The lines of demarcation between spheres of influence are already blurred and
may well become more so as Chinese and Japanese influence expand simultaneously, increasing the number and unpredictability of
regional rivalries. The status of Taiwan, tension along the 38th Parallel in Korea, conflicting claims to ownership of the Spratly
Islands, and the Sino-Japanese territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands are only a few of the flash-points that could ignite a great
power war in East Asia. Washington will clearly exercise far less control over the policies of East Asian powers than it exercised over
America's European allies during the Cold War. Hence, the risk of being chain-ganged into a nuclear conflict are much higher for the
United States in post-Cold War East Asia if it maintains or extends nuclear guarantees to any of the region's major states.
Even more important, post-Cold War East Asia simply does not have the same degree of strategic importance to the United States as
did Europe during the Cold War. Would the United States risk a nuclear confrontation to defend Taiwan, the Spratlys, or Senkaku?
Knowing that they would not constitute the same kind of threat to U.S. interests that the Soviet Union did, future revisionist East
Asian powers would probably be more willing to discount America's credibility and test its resolve. The presence of American forces
in the region may indeed have the perverse effect of failing to preserve peace while simultaneously ensuring the United States would
be drawn automatically into a future East Asian war. They could constitute the wrong sort of tripwire, tripping us rather than deterring
them. Notwithstanding current conventional wisdom, the United States should encourage East Asian states -- including Japan -- to
resolve their own security dilemmas, even if it means acquiring great power, including nuclear, military capabilities.
Reconfiguring American security policies anywhere in the world in ways that, in effect, encourage nuclear proliferation is widely seen
as irresponsible and risky. This is not necessarily the case. Nuclear proliferation and extended deterrence are generally believed to be
flip sides of the same coin, in the sense that providing the latter is seen to discourage the former. Nearly all maximalists are
simultaneously proliferation pessimists (believing that any proliferation will have negative security implications) and extended nuclear
deterrence optimists (believing that extended nuclear deterrence "works"). But this formulation comes apart from both ends in East
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Asia: Potential nuclear powers in the region are unlikely to act irresponsibly and, as suggested above, the U.S. nuclear umbrella is of
uncertain credibility in post-Cold War circumstances in which the Soviet Union no longer exists and strains in the U.S.-Japanese
relationship are manifest.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Prolif is inevitable.
Channing Lukhefar, Associate Defense Analyst, CATO institute. 7/14/91. CATO Foreign Policy Briefs.
More than 20 years of experience with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty has demonstrated that the international arms market win
find a way to circumvent even the most elaborate controls and restrictions. Moreover. A fundamental shift in the world arms trade is
gradually taking place. The Soviet Union and the United States are slowly but inexorably being eclipsed by China and other nations as
the primary purveyors of basic missile technology. That shift makes the market even less sensitive to the types of penalties any formal
or informal international control regime can impose. Barring the emergence of “new world despotism," no international agency or
coalition will be effective in baiting the spread of nuclear and missile technology.
Such a conclusion will surely be unpalatable to those officials and policy experts who long for the creation of a New World Order
presided over by a revitalized United Nations. But ballistic missile proliferation is and will continue to be a such a troublesome reality.
In such a threatening international environment, the responsibility for protecting the American people from missile attacks rests with
the US government. The virtual inevitability of proliferation also demands that the United States seriously pursue the development and
deployment of antiballistic missile (ABM) systems.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Forward basing in Japan key to logistical support for key military operations throughout the Pacific and
reassures all allies.
Global Security, 2005 (U.S. Army in Japan. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/usarj.htm)
The strategic geographic location of Japan provides the U.S. an excellent location for forward-basing, enabling power projection
forces in the event of contingencies. Combined with the current agreements the U.S. has with Japan for basing rights for both air and
sea forces, the U.S. Army in Japan is capable of a greatly expanded logistical support role throughout the Pacific theater. Japan
occupies a key strategic location in the Pacific, which is vitally important to the U.S. both economically and militarily. U.S. forward
presence in Japan is vital to ensuring access to this strategic location. The U.S. Army's forward presence in Japan enables it to meet
U.S. bilateral engagement responsibilities under the Mutual Security Treaty and the Defense Guidelines to defend Japan from outside
aggression in wartime, and to provide deterrence and stability in peacetime. It also demonstrates the U.S. commitment to other allies
and friends in the Pacific. Being in Japan, approximately 5,000 nautical miles closer to potential trouble spots than the West Coast of
the U.S., means USARJ & 9th TSC can respond to crises and support regional contingencies as a strategically located base and staging
area.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Prolif Good Frontline
Asian rearm causes accidental war that draws in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Russia, triggering global
nuclear conflict
Joseph Cirincione, director of non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 2K
“Nuclear Chain Reaction” Foreign Affairs
Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies at King's College, "Great Powers, Vital Interests and Nuclear
Weapons," Survival, v36 n4, Winter, 1994
For all these reasons, nuclear non-proliferation remains an important
Western policy objective. The spread of nuclear weapons, in terms of political
control as much as absolute numbers, encourages strategic disengagement
and thus a loss of influence in regions where important, if not quite
vital, interests are involved. More seriously, if nuclear weapons are detonated,
through accident or design, then the consequences will be profound
and more than enough to be considered a vital interest. Thus, proliferation
feeds on and then reinforces an existing tendency to reduce the security links
between the declared nuclear powers and those parts of their 'far abroads'
that are not covered by a well-established alliance. Yet as this process
continues, and simply because of the impossibility of containing the effects
of nuclear detonations, the overall stake in the prevention of conflicts grows
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
to the point where a vital interest is created that is as substantial as any
which went before, even though it is a very different kind of vital interest.
It has been argued that the declared nuclear powers can use their residual
nuclear capability to underpin their general efforts to promote a more orderly
world, but this may be too optimistic about regional patterns and Western
influence.39 A case can in principle be made for a concert of established
nuclear powers enforcing basic international law, but this is a theoretical
construct and not a practical one given the ambiguity of many breaches of
international law, the differential interests of and the remaining divisions
between the nuclear powers and the sheer irrelevance of external nuclear
arsenals to many localised conflicts.40 Unless a clear link can be forged
between threats to international peace and security and possible nuclear
responses, there are likely to be few pay-offs for international order.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Ext. Deterrence
Prolif deters war – the incentive is too low, states act with more care, and nukes provide adequate security.
Kenneth Waltz, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar
at Columbia University, past President of the American Political Science Association, and a Fellow of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2003, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate”
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Ext. Deterrence
Prolif is crucial to deterring possibilities of war.
Kenneth Waltz, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar
at Columbia University, past President of the American Political Science Association, and a Fellow of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2003, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate”
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
AT: Preemption
1. No risk- uncertainty prevents a preemptive attack due to fear of a second strike.
Bradley Thayer, Fellow for the Center of Science and International Affairs @ Harvard, 1995 [Security
Studies, Autumn]
The system level. Concerning the first of the three dangers captured by the systemic level of analysis, the incentive for preventive war
may be mitigated by two factors. First, there is a tradeoff between knowledge of the program and the threat that it poses. When the
program is most vulnerable, knowledge about it is likely to be ambiguous. As time passes, knowledge grows, but becomes less
vulnerable to preventative war because the risk of retaliation for a preventive attack increases. Philip Zelikow notes, 'As a state's
nuclear...capability becomes more threatening, it becomes less vulnerable to military action by an outside power.” Second, the
uncertainty of the success of either counterforce or counter control attack dampens the incentives for a preventive attack. Waltz is right
to argue that “uncertainty about the course that a nuclear war might follow, along with certainty that destruction could be immense,
strong inhibits the use of nuclear weapons” (Spread, 108). The attacking state could never be certain that it would escape unacceptable
damage in retaliation. The defender must manipulate the attacker’s fear that some the defender’s arsenal will survive into order to
deter a premeditated attack until the defender’s arsenal grows and becomes survivable.
2. Pre-emption fails – occupation is the only way to permanently prevent prolif and no one wants to occupy.
Kenneth Waltz, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar
at Columbia University, past President of the American Political Science Association, and a Fellow of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2003, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate”
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
AT: Preemption
4. Preemptive attacks are empirically disproven.
Dean Haggerty, lecturer of International Politics at the University of Illinois, The Consequences of Nuclear
Proliferation: Lessons of South Asia. 1998.
The Preventitive War Argument. Analysts persuaded by the logic of nonproliferation worry that Third World states will be subject to
preventative strikes, either conventional or nuclear – during their precarious transition to nuclear weapons. Those convinced by the
logic of nuclear deterrence believe that preventative strikes, especially nuclear ones, will be a highly unlikely feature of new nuclear
rivalries. Here again, the South Asian experience provides compelling support for the 1ogic of nuclear deterrence Throughout the early
1980s, media reports suggested that India was seriously considering launching a preventive attack against Pakistan's nascent uranium
enrichment plant at Kahuta. Short flight time would have made such an operation fairly easy, especially before the delivery of US
F16s to Pakistan in 1983. Still, Indian leaders refrained from ordering preventive strikes for the reasons described in Chapter 3, the
most important of which was the ease with which Islamabad could have retaliated against India's own nuclear installations. Later, in
1986-87, New Delhi could well have used the Brasstacks crisis as an excuse to destroy Kahuta and other Pakistani nuclear facilities;
again, though, India chose no such course. All in all, then, the subcontinent’s nuclear history buttresses the logic of nuclear deterrence
in the area of preventative imperatives.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
2. Arms races are irrelevant – deterrence is not about the number of weapons but just the policy – our 1NC
evidence provides specific reasons why even a couple nukes constitute unacceptable losses.
3. Prolif slows down arms races between unstable states, and they can’t make nukes anyway.
Kenneth Waltz, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar
at Columbia University, past President of the American Political Science Association, and a Fellow of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2003, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate”
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
4. Huge nuclear arms races are illogical and wasteful, especially for smaller proliferators.
Kenneth Waltz, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar
at Columbia University, past President of the American Political Science Association, and a Fellow of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2003, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate”
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Soviet nuclear competition." As one Pakistani general said regarding the "requirements" for survivable second-strike nuclear forces,
"this is not our issue. It is your concern.-"
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
AT: Blackmail
1. Empirically denied – many proliferating countries prove that blackmail has empirically failed – includes
numerous countries that hate each other.
2. There is no secret launch or blackmailing – identification is easy and nuclear threats are ridiculous.
Kenneth Waltz, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar
at Columbia University, past President of the American Political Science Association, and a Fellow of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2003, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate”
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
3. International powers check regional escalation.
Dagobert L. Brito and Michael D. Intriligator, Prof of political economy, center for international and
strategic affairs, 1983, Strategies for managing nuclear proliferation.
The first nuclear nation in the region may be tempted to use its regional nuclear monopoly, for example, against a regional rival,
particularly if it perceives that the rival is also in the process of developing nuclear capabilities. AN example is the Israeli surgical
strike against the Iraqi nuclear reactor in June 1981. The probability of a war between regional rivals is however, considerably lower
than the probability of such a war between global rivals. In the case of the Israeli strike against the Iraqi nuclear reactor, the strike was
conducted with conventional weapons and did not lead to even a local war with conventional weapons. The presence of major powers
with nuclear weapons and with justified fears of escalation of nuclear war from the regional to the global level means that they could
not remain bystanders to a nuclear war at the regional level. They would become involved, not as belligerents but as active mediators
or negotiators, or, if this role failed, as restraining parties. An example of the type of actions that could be taken by the major powers
was those of the United States and USSR during the Suez crisis of 1956. Thus, although the acquisition of nuclear weapons at the
regional level increases the probability of nuclear war, the overall level of this probability is low because of the potential moderating
and restraining influence of the major powers.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
2. Empirically denied – Cold War politics and Indo/Pak conflict prove – hostile pairs are fully deterred from
launching because they would gain only minimal benefits.
3. Multipolarity prevents first use of nuclear weapons.
Kenneth Waltz, professor of political science at the University of California. Strategies for Managing Nuclear
Proliferation. 1983.
In the old days, weaker powers could improve their positions through alliance by adding the strength of foreign armies to their own.
Cannot some of the middle states do together what they are unable to do alone? For two decisive reasons, the answer is no. First,
nuclear forces do not add up. The technology of warheads, of delivery vehicles, of detection and surveillance devices, of command
control systems, count more than the size of forces. Combining separate national forces is not much help. Second, to reach top
technological levels would require full collaboration by say, several European states. To achieve this has proved politically impossible.
As de Gaulle has often said, nuclear weapons make alliances obsolete. At the strategic level he was right. States fear dividing their
strategic labors fully- from research and development through production, planning, and deployment. This is less because one of them
in the future might be at war with another, and more because anyone’s decision to use the weapons against third parties might be fatal
to all of them. Decisions to sue the nuclear weapons may be decisions to commit suicide. Only a national authority can be entrusted
with the decision, again as de Gaulle always claimed. Only by merging and losing their political identities can middle states become
great powers.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
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DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
2. Terrorists would never use nuclear weapons
Kenneth Waltz, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar
at Columbia University, past President of the American Political Science Association, and a Fellow of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2003, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate”
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Flawed Logic
Your ev is based on flawed logic – depends on deductive logic and can’t be applied in other contexts.
David Karl, Ph.D. International Relations at the University of Southern California, "Proliferation Pessimism
and Emerging Nuclear Powers," International Security, Winter, 1996/1997, JSTOR
Your ev is biased – counterprolif “experts” are biased to avoid inquiries into their favors.
William Arkin, Policy Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government in the Carr Centre for Human Rights
Policy, Harvard University, has served as an independent consultant and held positions at the Institute for
Policy Studies, Center for Defense Information, Greenpeace, the Natural Resources Defense Council and
Human Rights Watch, "The sky-is-still-falling profession," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, March/April, 1994,
http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/1994/ma94/ma94Arkin.html, EBSCO
Continued nuclear dangers "prove" that nuclear weapons are still needed and must be modernized, that force is crucial, that
conventional war strategies should be embellished. That's what the "counterproliferation" warriors now argue. Without Iraq, and
Korea, and Iran, and Libya, they would face surer declines in budgets, deeper inquiries into their futures. To diplomats, the same
dangers prove that arms control efforts, verification schemes, more treaties, and more negotiations are crucial. To the anti-nuclear
crowd, the same problem proves the need for more absolute controls on testing and nuclear materials, and for complete nuclear
disarmament—even the elimination of nuclear power. The crisis atmosphere advances a set of vastly different agendas. Everyone wins
when the sky is falling. Everyone in the profession, that is.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
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DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Terrorism Frontline
1. Terror attacks will only be small—not huge
Brad Roberts, member of the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses, and Michael Moodie,
president of the Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, July 2002, “Biological Weapons: Toward a
Threat Reduction Strategy, Defense Horizons, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/DefHor/DH15/DH15.htm
The argument about terrorist motivation is also important. Terrorists generally have not killed as many as they have been capable of
killing. This restraint seems to derive from an understanding of mass casualty attacks as both unnecessary and counterproductive.
They are unnecessary because terrorists, by and large, have succeeded by conventional means. Also, they are counterproductive
because they might alienate key constituencies, whether among the public, state sponsors, or the terrorist leadership group. In Brian
Jenkins' famous words, terrorists want a lot of people watching, not a lot of people dead. Others have argued that the lack of mass
casualty terrorism and effective exploitation of BW has been more a matter of accident and good fortune than capability or intent.
Adherents of this view, including former Secretary of Defense William Cohen, argue that "it's not a matter of if but when."
The attacks of September 11 would seem to settle the debate about whether terrorists have both the motivation and sophistication to
exploit weapons of mass destruction for their full lethal effect. After all, those were terrorist attacks of unprecedented sophistication
that seemed clearly aimed at achieving mass casualties--had the World Trade Center towers collapsed as the 1993 bombers had
intended, perhaps as many as 150,000 would have died. Moreover, Osama bin Laden's constituency would appear to be not the "Arab
street" or some other political entity but his god. And terrorists answerable only to their deity have proven historically to be among the
most lethal.
But this debate cannot be considered settled. Bin Laden and his followers could have killed many more on September 11 if killing as
many as possible had been their primary objective. They now face the core dilemma of asymmetric warfare: how to escalate without
creating new interests for the stronger power and thus the incentive to exploit its power potential more fully. Asymmetric adversaries
want their stronger enemies fearful, not fully engaged--militarily or otherwise. They seek to win by preventing the stronger partner
from exploiting its full potential. To kill millions in America with biological or other weapons would only commit the United States--
and much of the rest of the international community--to the annihilation of the perpetrators.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
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DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Terrorism Frontline
Soft power solves multiple scenarios for conflict
Harold Koh, Yale University, 2004, The Center for International and Comparative Law,
http://law.ubalt.edu/asil/koh.html,
The death penalty, which obviously has been an irritant in the relationship between the United States and European Union in the war
against terrorism. Each of these areas of conflict arose from the fact that, where the Clinton Administration pursued what Strobe
Talbot calls strategic multilateralism and tactical unilateralism, the Bush Administration shifted to a strategy of strategic unilateralism
and tactical multilateralism. This has been self-defeating in two ways. First, the United States has demonstrated a loss of rectitude,
which has led to at least a loss of its soft power, its persuasive, diplomatic power. This power is the only way the United States is
going to, first, rebuild Iraq, second, rebuild Afghanistan, third, fight al Qaeda in a multilateral effort, fourth, address the North Korean
diplomatic crisis, and finally, engage the Middle East peace process—the source of the terrorism problem in the first place.
<<< Koh continues >>>
We never have had a situation in the United States where there is a greater disparity between our hard power and our soft power. Even
as we started bombing Baghdad with unprecedented technological skill, we could not get Mexico and Chile to vote a favorable
Security Council resolution. As the administration was railing against violations of Geneva Conventions against our own soldiers, it
seemed oblivious to the fact that most of the world thinks that we are violating those conventions with regard to detainees at
Guantánamo. President Bush is calling for prosecution of Iraqi war criminals while insisting on opposing the ICC. U.S. officials who
said we do not need the United Nations to launch the attack are saying that the United Nations should help to rebuild Iraq. My point is
this: The United States is taking a Jekyll and Hyde approach. On the one hand it pursues coercive theories of power-based
internationalism, but on the other hand it recognizes the need for norm-based theories of international-law-based internationalism. I
believe that as a nation conceived in liberty and dedicated to inalienable rights, the United States has a very strong impulse not just to
use power but to combine power with principle. We, as lawyers and scholars and activists who care, should do what we can to use
transnational legal process to prod this country to follow the better angels of its national nature.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Terrorism Frontline
3. Only developed nations are capable of creating a nuclear device, any terrorist attempts would be easily
detectable and large enough amounts of uranium are impossible to obtain.
NIDS, Norwegian International Defence Seminar, 10/13/04, “Can terrorists make nuclear weapons?”,
http://www.mil.no/felles/ffi/start/article.jhtml?articleID=85820
Large quantities needed
Today, it is mostly ultracentrifuge plants that are used to enrich uranium. However, they are expensive to develop, build and operate. A
small plant costs hundreds of millions of USD, and the need for natural uranium as a feed material is about 10 tons per nuclear
weapon. Such plants consume vast amounts of electricity, and they require great technological expertise to operate. Such activities
would be easy to detect. Consequently, only developed countries can hope to build and operate such plants successfully.
Selling uranium
So, if the terrorists can’t make nuclear materials, they can steal it, right? Ølgaard thinks not. Most research reactors have converted to
20% enriched uranium. A much higher grade of enriched uranium is required for nuclear weapons than for power reactors. However,
in the military field, highly enriched uranium is used for both nuclear weapons and to fuel nuclear ships. Thus there is a risk that
nuclear material can inadvertently fall into the hands of our enemies. Ølgaard pointed to the fact that there have been a number of
cases where people with connections to the East have tried to sell fissile material in Western Europe. However, in all of these cases,
the amounts were too small to be of relevance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons.
4. Doublebind – the terrorists either don’t care or are too stupid to attack.
John Mueller is Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University, September/October 2006, Foreign
Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060901facomment85501/john-mueller/is-there-still-a-terrorist-
threat.html
But if it is so easy to pull off an attack and if terrorists are so demonically competent, why have they not done it? Why have they not
been sniping at people in shopping centers, collapsing tunnels, poisoning the food supply, cutting electrical lines, derailing trains,
blowing up oil pipelines, causing massive traffic jams, or exploiting the countless other vulnerabilities that, according to security
experts, could so easily be exploited?
One reasonable explanation is that almost no terrorists exist in the United States and few have the means or the inclination to strike
from abroad. But this explanation is rarely offered.
HUFFING AND PUFFING
Instead, Americans are told -- often by the same people who had once predicted imminent attacks -- that the absence of international
terrorist strikes in the United States is owed to the protective measures so hastily and expensively put in place after 9/11. But there is a
problem with this argument. True, there have been no terrorist incidents in the United States in the last five years. But nor were there
any in the five years before the 9/11 attacks, at a time when the United States was doing much less to protect itself. It would take only
one or two guys with a gun or an explosive to terrorize vast numbers of people, as the sniper attacks around Washington, D.C.,
demonstrated in 2002. Accordingly, the government's protective measures would have to be nearly perfect to thwart all such plans.
Given the monumental imperfection of the government's response to Hurricane Katrina, and the debacle of FBI and National Security
Agency programs to upgrade their computers to better coordinate intelligence information, that explanation seems far-fetched.
Moreover, Israel still experiences terrorism even with a far more extensive security apparatus.
It may well have become more difficult for terrorists to get into the country, but, as thousands demonstrate each day, it is far from
impossible. Immigration procedures have been substantially tightened (at considerable cost), and suspicious U.S. border guards have
turned away a few likely bad apples. But visitors and immigrants continue to flood the country. There are over 300 million legal
entries by foreigners each year, and illegal crossings number between 1,000 and 4,000 a day -- to say nothing of the generous
quantities of forbidden substances that the government has been unable to intercept or even detect despite decades of a strenuous and
well-funded "war on drugs." Every year, a number of people from Muslim countries -- perhaps hundreds -- are apprehended among
the illegal flow from Mexico, and many more probably make it through. Terrorism does not require a large force. And the 9/11
planners, assuming Middle Eastern males would have problems entering the United States legally after the attack, put into motion
plans to rely thereafter on non-Arabs with passports from Europe and Southeast Asia.
If al Qaeda operatives are as determined and inventive as assumed, they should be here by now. If they are not yet here, they must not
be trying very hard or must be far less dedicated, diabolical, and competent than the common image would suggest.
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DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Terrorism Frontline
5. Terrorism is crucial to establishing a new world order that solves extinction.
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Egyptian Political Analyst, Al-Ahram Newspaper, 8/26/04,
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/ 2004/705/op5.htm
What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of
the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped
up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It
would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to
survive.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Ext. No Nukes
Terrorists don’t have the capabilities to successfully build a nuclear device.
NIDS, Norwegian International Defence Seminar, 10/13/04, “Can terrorists make nuclear weapons?”,
http://www.mil.no/felles/ffi/start/article.jhtml?articleID=85820
Here are some of the reasons terrorist use of nuclear weapons should not be among your major concerns, according to Professor Povl
L. Ølgaard, at Olgard Consult: The manufacture of nuclear weapons requires an enormous infrastructure.
-This infrastructure is not easily accessible to terrorists, said Professor Povl L. Ølgaard, at Olgard Consult. Terrorists don’t have access
to the facilities needed to enrich uranium. Nor do they possess the pure quality of materials required for the correct timing of the chain
reaction. This timing is critical to achieving the explosion.
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Proliferation/Terrorism
William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
Terrorists won’t use nuclear weapons, it would destroy their political base and countries would no longer
supply them for fear of US backlash.
Hillel W Cohen, Assistant professor, Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, Abert Einstein
College of Medicine and Montefiore Medical Center, New York, Victor W Sidel, Professor, Department of
Epidemiology and Social Medicine, Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Montefiore Medical Center, and
Robert M. Gould, President, SF-Bay area Chapter, Physicians for Social Responsibility,
http://www.thedoctorwillseeyounow.com/articles/other/biotb_13/, 2002
It has been suggested that political terrorists would not be motivated to use catastrophic weaponry since such actions would bring
universal condemnation even from those who might otherwise sympathize with their cause. Even if so motivated, it would be difficult
for terrorist organizations, working in secret and without government support, to develop capacities that only a limited number of
states have had the resources to acquire. Any government's putative desire to allow allied political organizations access to such
weaponry would be constrained by reasonable fears of retaliation from targeted states in possession of robust military power.
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DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
AT: Russia
Russian “loose nukes” pose no threat, even if terrorists obtained them lack of maintenance prevents their
usage.
CASR, Canadian American Strategic Review, Canadian Defense Policy, An Assessment of the Threat of
Nuclear Terrorism:
Beg, Borrow or Steal: 'Suitcase' Bombs & Rogue States http://www.sfu.ca/casr/ft-frost4.htm, October 2003
The results of the audit does not automatically mean that unaccounted-for weapons have fallen into the 'wrong' hands. Given the
current state of Russian controls on nuclear material, Lebed may be revealing more about record-keeping and storage procedures than
about the weapons themselves. However, even if terrorists could have obtained such weapons, there would have been significant
obstacles to their using them.
Sokov quotes Igor Valynkin, chief of the 12th GUMO (the Main Department of the Russian Ministry of Defence tasked with handling
all nuclear weapons) as saying that the devices would have had very short maintenance schedules – possibly as little as six months. If
certain crucial components, such as tritium boosters, were not replaced at regular intervals the bombs would go 'stale' and their nuclear
yield could drop to close to zero. Any weapons diverted in the 'bad old days' of the early 1990s would, by now, have missed twenty or
more scheduled services and be at the end of their useful lives.
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William Huang
DDI ‘08
Kernoff/Olney
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