Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
LouGie Lab
Coal Disadvantage
Coal Disadvantage..........................................................................................................................................................1
***Coal Proper***.........................................................................................................................................................3
Coal 1nc..........................................................................................................................................................................4
***Uniqueness***..........................................................................................................................................................5
2nc Uniqueness Bopper..................................................................................................................................................6
Coal Prices High.............................................................................................................................................................7
US Coal Industry Strong.................................................................................................................................................8
Coal Demand Rising.......................................................................................................................................................9
Now Key Time for US Coal..........................................................................................................................................10
A2: Renewables Now/Coming......................................................................................................................................11
A2: Emissions...............................................................................................................................................................12
A2: High Production Prices Now/Coming....................................................................................................................13
***Links***..................................................................................................................................................................14
2nc Link........................................................................................................................................................................15
Generic Renewables......................................................................................................................................................16
Generic Alternative Energy...........................................................................................................................................17
Solar Power...................................................................................................................................................................18
Wind..............................................................................................................................................................................19
Nuclear Power...............................................................................................................................................................20
RPS................................................................................................................................................................................21
Carbon Tax....................................................................................................................................................................22
Emissions Trading.........................................................................................................................................................23
***Impacts***..............................................................................................................................................................24
Economy: Coal Key......................................................................................................................................................25
Economy: Coal Key......................................................................................................................................................26
Railroads Module..........................................................................................................................................................27
Hegemony Module........................................................................................................................................................28
Coal Mining Good: Jobs...............................................................................................................................................29
***Clean Coal***.........................................................................................................................................................30
Clean Coal 1nc..............................................................................................................................................................31
***Uniqueness***........................................................................................................................................................32
Clean Coal Coming.......................................................................................................................................................33
A2: Clean Coal Not Possible........................................................................................................................................34
Coal Industry Expanding..............................................................................................................................................35
***Links***..................................................................................................................................................................36
Renewables Destroy Coal.............................................................................................................................................37
RPS Links.....................................................................................................................................................................38
Nuclear Power...............................................................................................................................................................39
***Impacts***..............................................................................................................................................................40
2nc Transition................................................................................................................................................................41
Clean Coal Solves Warming.........................................................................................................................................42
***Affirmative Answers***.........................................................................................................................................43
Alternative Energy Not Hurt Economy.........................................................................................................................44
Coal Industry Collapsing..............................................................................................................................................45
Transition From Coal Now...........................................................................................................................................46
Transition From Coal Now...........................................................................................................................................47
Coal Bad Warming........................................................................................................................................................48
Coal Bad: Environment.................................................................................................................................................49
Coal Bad: Mining- Generic...........................................................................................................................................50
Coal Bad: Mining- Underground..................................................................................................................................51
Coal Bad: Mining- Mountain Top.................................................................................................................................52
No Clean Coal: Politics.................................................................................................................................................53
No Clean Coal: Technology..........................................................................................................................................54
1
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
2
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Coal Proper***
3
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Coal 1nc
Coal prices are guaranteed to rise over the next few decades
Garry White editor of financial newsletters, 6/4/2008 ,Coal Price Guaranteed to Soar
[http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/coal-price-guaranteed-to-soar/2828
Demand for coal is through the roof. And I believe the price of a ton of the stuff is almost guaranteed to rise in the
years ahead. Currently, two-thirds of the world’s coal is used to generate electricity. The rest goes into steel and concrete production. The
US Department of Energy says China and India will account for 70% of the increase in world coal consumption over the next two decades. And
consider China’s plans for the next five years… they’re planning to build the equivalent of ten New York Cities, said a Canadian chief
executive and financier at the mining conference I attended yesterday! This will need unimaginable amounts of coal for steel production,
concrete production and energy generation. China used to be the largest coal producer in the world, but it is now a net importer. As the
communist Republic continues to develop, it will have to import more and more coal. There are no realistic alternatives. And that
will continue to boost the coal price. It’s great news for one brilliant investment. More on that in a moment.
4
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Uniqueness***
5
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
6
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Coal prices are guaranteed to rise over the next few decades
Garry White (editor of financial newsletters) Jun 4 2008 “Coal Price Guaranteed to Soar”,
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/coal-price-guaranteed-to-soar/2828.
Demand for coal is through the roof. And I believe the price of a ton of the stuff is almost guaranteed to rise in the
years ahead. Currently, two-thirds of the world’s coal is used to generate electricity. The rest goes into steel and
concrete production. The US Department of Energy says China and India will account for 70% of the increase in
world coal consumption over the next two decades. And consider China’s plans for the next five years… they’re
planning to build the equivalent of ten New York Cities, said a Canadian chief executive and financier at the
mining conference I attended yesterday! This will need unimaginable amounts of coal for steel production,
concrete production and energy generation. China used to be the largest coal producer in the world, but it is now a
net importer. As the communist Republic continues to develop, it will have to import more and more coal. There
are no realistic alternatives. And that will continue to boost the coal price. It’s great news for one brilliant
investment. More on that in a moment.
7
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
8
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
9
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
10
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
11
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
A2: Emissions
Threats of emissions caps aren’t enough to hurt the coal industry.
The Economist. November 15 2007 Still going strong
http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10145492
But poor and fast-growing places are not the only ones with a hunger for coal. In America, more coal-fired generation is being
built than at any time in the past seven years, despite the threat of emissions caps, according to the Department of Energy.
In Europe, several power companies are building new coal-fired plants, even though every tonne of carbon dioxide that they emit will require
an expensive permit. For example, RWE, a German utility, plans to spend €6.2 billion ($9.1 billion) on three new coal-fired plants by 2012.
One of them is already under construction. All this has helped to push the price of coal steadily upwards in the past few years. Nonetheless, it
has risen less quickly than that of oil or natural gas. Coal is now by far the cheapest of the common fuels for power stations relative to the
amount of heat it generates when burnt (see chart). At the very least that is encouraging utilities to run their existing coal-fired plants flat out.
But it is also prompting some to convert oil-fired plants to run on coal instead. Enel, Italy's former electricity monopoly, has already performed
one such refurbishment, and has two more under way, at a cost of €3.8 billion. Leonardo Arrighi, who supervises the firm's investments in
generation, says it would like to build “more and more” coal-fired plants. In theory, the carbon price (in Europe) and the threat of
one (in America) should dent this enthusiasm for coal. But in practice many utilities are betting that the disparity in
fuel prices will outweigh the cost of extra permits to pollute. At the moment such permits cost pennies in Europe, because
governments handed out too many of them. Although there should be more of a shortage starting next year, the futures price would have to rise
from the current €22 per tonne of carbon to over €30 per tonne to prompt a significant switch away from coal over the next two years,
according to Henrik Hasselknippe of Point Carbon, a consultancy.
12
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Our evidence subsumes your warrants – new costs and high prices will not effect the
industry – they will take the necessary steps
Business Wire June 4 2008 “Fitch: Muted Supply Response to Strong International Coal Demand for U.S. Coal
Industry”, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2008_June_4/ai_n25476070?tag=content;col1
NEW YORK -- U.S. coal producers are benefiting from tight global markets for both steam and metallurgical coal
which is diverting imports from the United States and providing export opportunities for domestic producers,
according to a Fitch Ratings report. The supply response to improving price conditions should be measured, given high
operating and materials costs. Fitch expects only modest growth in U.S. coal production following a 1% contraction in 2007.
Constraints to building new mines include high capital costs, the need for sales contracts covering a high portion
of the new tonnage for a period of time, and a lengthy permitting process. While some producers are announcing new
projects, these have more than two years lead-time and may only replace declining production at existing mines. 'High consumables prices and
labor costs will constrain earnings growth over the next few months,' said Monica Bonar, Director, Fitch Ratings. 'Mining in new or
challenging regions can amplify already high maintenance and capital costs.' Capital raising for the industry has
been fairly active of late both for expansion capital and to improve weak capital structures. Fitch expects major coal
producers will continue to balance capital spending with free cash flows. Fitch notes that companies with weaker
capital structures are selling common stock or converting debt to common stock and taking other steps to shore up
liquidity.
13
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Links***
14
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
2nc Link
US coal industry is growing now, increase renewable expansion or emission regulations and
it will collapse the coal industry, which is key to US electricity supply
Kirby Davis March 12 2008 Journal Record
Alliance Resource Partners will invest $600 million over the next three to four years to bring three new coal mines
online, bringing its inventory to 11. That move reflects anticipated long-term growth for both U.S. and world demand for
coal, driven by increased electrical generation needs, President and Chief Executive Joseph W. Craft III told a sold-out University
of Tulsa Friends of Finance audience Tuesday. But investments such as Alliance plans come with increasing risk, as scientists and
politicians debate potential carbon emission regulations, said Craft. The head of the nation's fourth largest coal production
operation warned that those environmental steps, if taken without regard for existing technological capabilities and
increased research, could have drastic impact on U.S. and world economic growth by reducing usage of the key component to
cheap power. "The cost of electricity is driven by a large part on the percent of coal used to generate it," said Craft,
defending his industry's performance and interests while linking future gross domestic product growth to a continued abundance of
inexpensive electricity. "Coal remains the low-cost alternative." Craft said electrical power generation by coal-fueled plants rose 50
percent last year to 3.9 billion kilowatts per hour. Federal government projections estimate that will grow to 4.9 billion kilowatts by 2030, with
improved sulfur removal technologies allowing the coal-fired market share to hit 57 percent. Coal usage is projected to rise 48
percent over that period, he said, comprising the majority of power generation. Renewable sources would increase 60 percent, he said, while
nuclear power generation would climb 19 percent and petroleum sources 9 percent. Natural gas projections call for a 24-percent drop due to
insufficient production and forced imports of liquid natural gas. But Craft warned carbon emission regulations could skew those
projections. Craft did not urge regulators to turn away from alternative power sources. He said he embraced increase usage of renewable,
nuclear, natural gas and other electrical power generators. "The question's going to be, 'How are we going to generate that
electricity?'" he said, with the answer helping determine not just future U.S. economic performance but its place in a competitive world
environment. Renewable sources, he said, can not be developed in a scale necessary to replace the electricity generated
by coal-fired plants. The sources also remain plagued by intermittent availability and continued storage problems. Craft said the nation
now has 104 nuclear power plants, the last ones built in the 1980s. Only five are now under construction for an industry that needs to build 40
just to maintain its market share. As for natural gas, Craft said the inability for domestic production to meet rising demand has not only driven
natural gas prices higher but forced importation of LNG. As a result, Craft said states paying the highest electrical rates are those that draw the
smallest percent of their power from coal-fired plants. While natural gas prices rose, Craft said coal prices remained relatively stable until
recent times, when rising international demand spurred a spike not just in the U.S., but with export leader Australia and other sources. But he
suggested that could aid the U.S., since it retains an abundance of coal despite a century of mining. Even with rising consumption, Craft
presented data suggesting the U.S. retains more than a 200-year coal supply, comprising 95 percent of the nation's energy reserves. Only the
current low value of the U.S. dollar cast a shadow on rising coal exports, which he said have tripled since 2005. Craft warned that the
environmental debate has slowed more than the construction of nuclear power plants. He said utilities have not moved fast enough to refurbish
or replace many coal-fired plants built in the 1980s. Across the nation, Craft said utilities have 28 coal-fired electrical plants under
construction, six starting construction and 13 permitted. Those 47 plants promise to generate 42.39 megawatts. Another 67 plants are in the
early planning stages, promising 65.56 megawatts capacity. That compares to plant construction promising 96 gigawatts underway in China.
With electrical capacity playing a key role in GDP growth and standards of living, Craft worried that U.S. electrical capacity may soon not be
able to keep pace with peak usage demands. He urged leaders to increase spending on research to solve these environmental and electrical
generation issues while providing another technology for the U.S. to export. "I hope we just think it through so that if we do have a cost, we do
have a benefit," Craft said of new environmental regulations. "We should try not to create one crisis by trying to solve another
crisis. "I'm going to do my best to try to educate them," he said of politicians. "Whether they listen or not is not my decision, because more
often than not all they want is more money."
15
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Generic Renewables
Sun Wind and water reduce our dependency on coal.
Eric McLamb 2008 The Union of Concerned Scientists, “Fossils Fuels vs. Renewable Energy
Resources:Energy's Future Today”
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:sDC7iU5crh4J:www.ecology.com/features/fossilvsrenewable/fossilvsrenewab
le.html+increase+in+solar+power+will+decrease+our+dependence+on+coal&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us.
7/24/08$
The oil, coal and natural gas companies know these are serious problems. But until our renewable energy sources become more
viable as major energy providers, the only the alternative for our global population is for these companies to
continue tapping into the fossil fuel reserves to meet our energy needs. And, you can pretty much count on these companies
being there providing energy from renewable sources when the fossil fuels are depleted. Many oil companies, for example, are involved in the
development of more reliable renewable energy technologies. For example, British Petroleum Company, today known as BP, has become one
of the world's leading providers of solar energy through its BP Solar division, a business that they are planning on eclipsing their oil production
business in the near future. Sun, wind and water are perfect energy sources...depending on where you are. They are non-polluting,
renewable and efficient. They are simple: all you need is sunlight, running water and/or wind. Not only do the use of renewable energy
sources help reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, but they also add some much-needed flexibility to the energy resource
mix by decreasing our dependence on limited reserves of fossil fuels.
16
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Alternative energy sources trade off with the coal industry – this leads to industry collapse
Mark Clayton (Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor) March 4 2008 “U.S. coal power boom suddenly
wanes”, http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0304/p01s07-usec.html
The federal Energy Information Administration forecasts a need for only 4,000 megawatts of additional capacity by the same date. Bruce
Nilles, who organizes grass-roots opposition to coal power plants for the Sierra Club, an environmental group, says power-demand projections
are soft. "There's not going to be a big need for more coal," he says. "There are plenty of alternatives coming." In
fast-growing areas of the country like Texas, regulators worry that demand will outstrip power supplies. The big
Texas utility TXU last year canceled eight of 11 coal-fired power plants it had on the drawing boards. Yet Texas now
leads the nation in wind-power generation and is aggressively building more. The state also holds potential to lead the
nation in sequestering carbon emissions from power plants in old oil fields and saline aquifers. Tenaska Inc., a power company based in
Omaha, Neb., announced last month it was planning the nation's first new conventional coal-fired power plant to capture 90 percent of its
carbon-dioxide emissions. It aims to sell the CO2 to oil companies, who would pump it underground to boost oil production. Mr. Sergel's
organization has warned Texas it could have reliability problems if it doesn't build more power soon. Others in the coal-power industry
are adamant, too. "If they don't start building coal plants, it's going to be an economic prosperity problem for the
country," says Richard Storm, CEO of Storm Technologies, an Albemarle, N.C., company that specializes in optimizing coal-fired power
plants. "We need coal. Coal is a national treasure."
17
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Solar Power
Solar Power Decreases coal consumption
Stewart Somerville 2008 “The United States gets 49% of its electricity from coal”APS.
http://www.utsolar.org/documents/Somerville%20Solar%20Paper.pdf
If a resource’s consumption increases exponentially it is not important how much is left. It will be consumed much faster than one can imagine.
On the other hand, if annual consumption is decreased exponentially it will last forever. To replace an increase of 5% of oil and coal
consumption growth, we need to increase renewable energy by 245% a year. This is just to offset the growth. This is not
possible. We need to increase the efficiency of the energy we use. If we could decrease the use of oil by 10% per year and increased
renewable energy by 10%we would effectively reduce our dependence on oil. An acceptable growth rate for renewable energy needs to be
increased to 25% per year. Production of renewable energy would double every 3 years. In 1983, we used 3quadrillionBTUs less energy than in
1973 due to our more efficient use of energy. That is a big change. What if we built smaller houses and made them net zero energy? Could we
effect an even larger savings? Solar can provide energy at the daytime peak. It is the peak demand that is really the problem for power
plants. If we could offset the peak, our power plants would have more capacity for normal demand. Solar costs are fixed once installed but
conventional power costs are going upand will never come back down. The cheap oil is gone. By building net zero energy homes and electric
cars, we could easily decrease our oil and coal consumption by 5% or more. By also increasing our renewable energy
production by 25%, we would decrease oil and coal consumption by another 7.35%. In a short time, we could be free of our
dependency on oil and coal.
18
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Wind
Wind energy disrupts the coal market by competing with potential coal mines
The Bismarck Tribune July 24 2008 Coal vs. wind: It's about land, Jul 24, 2008 - 14:05:13 CDT Earth and sky
-- there is energy to be had from both
http://www.bismarktribune.com/articles/2008/07/24/news/opinion/editorials/doc4888876dd5c6a842921341.txt
Coal mines always have been big business. Wind farms are getting to be. And when heavy-hitting companies such
as North American Coal Corp., Minnesota Power and Florida Power and Light are eyeing an area of real estate,
you bet it's consequential. The real estate isn't paltry; it's a lot of acreage in Oliver and Morton counties. Minnesota Power and
FPL want to build separate wind farms. But the coal company says, "Wait a minute, we may want to mine where you guys
are talking about putting up wind turbines. That won't work." The companies should negotiate and not leave it to the Public
Service Commission to be King Solomon. Complicating matters is that the electric utility is a member of a corporate family that includes a coal
mining outfit that could offer a site for a wind farm, reclaimed land where the coal is gone. That's what the CEO of the parent company, Allete,
assumed. It sounds as if there have been a good many people doing a bunch of assuming rather than communicating.
19
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Nuclear Power
Nuclear power kills the coal industry.
Watthead June 2 2007 “Carbon Backlash: Coal Companies Pitted Against Major U.S. Corporations Pushing for
Climate Regulations”
Murray, whose private company produces about 30 million tons of coal per year, has formed the Coal-based Stakeholders Chief Executive
Officers Group, comprising CEOs of railroads, some coal companies and utilities. It opposes so-called "cap and trade" regulations,
arguing that caps on emissions will devastate the U.S. coal industry which fuels about 50 percent of the country's electricity
generation. Murray said he sent Caterpillar CEO Jim Owens a letter a few months ago telling him he would no longer do business with him - a
decision he said will result in the loss of millions of dollars in business to Caterpillar. He also pointed out power company Exelon Corp's
(EXC) John Rowe, as "one of the biggest enemies of coal for decades because he's got nuclear." Chicago-based Exelon,
which is not a member of USCAP, said in a statement that Rowe is "a leading proponent of moderate and thoughtful climate change legislation
that preserves all technological alternatives." He co-chairs the National Commission on Energy Policy, which has advocated for a variety of
technologies to address climate change, including clean coal and carbon sequestration. "And certainly John is an advocate for nuclear power."
20
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
RPS
RPS would cause a dramatic shift away from coal
Foster Electric Report September 19 2007 “EIA finds that federal 25% rps would cause dramatic shift away
from coal generation,”
Meeting twin 25% national renewable portfolio standards for electricity and transportation fuels by 2025 would
require nearly a 13-fold increase from 2005 levels in non-hydropower renewable generation, and cause a "dramatic shift" away from
coal and natural gas generation, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report released Sept. 11. "This analysis
suggests that, to comply with the twin 25-by-25 mandates, it will be necessary for electricity and motor fuel
producers to dramatically increase their use of technologies that play a relatively small role in today's energy markets," the
report said. For instance, EIA said the 13-fold increase in renewable electricity generation from 2005 levels would be accompanied by more
than a 12-fold increase in the amount of ethanol and biodiesel needed.
21
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Carbon Tax
Capping Carbon emissions destroys the coal industry
Steve James and Timothy Gardner June 27 2007 “Congress wants U.S. coal industry destroyed: exec.”
Reuters. http://www.patchworkfilms.com/shockingfacts.htm
A senior coal company executive on Wednesday lambasted U.S. lawmakers for proposing caps on emissions
blamed for global warming, saying the Democrats were out to destroy America's coal industry. Robert Murray,
chairman, president and chief executive of Murray Energy Corp., also blasted the federal government's mine safety agency for "outrageous"
new fines that he warned could put some miners out of business. Murray, who said he was giving testimony to the Senate's Environment and
Public Works Committee on Thursday, warned that proposed restrictions on carbon emissions would severely hurt the coal
industry, which supplies the fuel for approximately 50 percent of America's electricity generation. Congress is
considering several bills that aim to fight global warming by putting tough limits on greenhouse gases. Supporters say the bills would provide
incentives for companies to invest in technology to cut emissions. "This climate change issue is a human issue," Murray said, paraphrasing
what he said he would tell the Senate committee chaired by Sen. Barbara Boxer, Democrat of California. “The present course of action
that is proposed will result in little environmental benefit, but will destroy the lives of America's working
families."Murray said some studies estimated that reducing coal use would lead to the loss of 3 million to 4 million
jobs in the United States.
22
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Emissions Trading
Regulating carbon emissions massively hurts the coal industry, its community, and the
workers.
Jonathan Rivoli January 20 2008 Bismarck Tribune “The Growing Concern Over CO2”
You can't see it or smell it as it rises from smokestacks into the clear blue sky above the prairie. But to an increasing number of
policymakers around the world, carbon dioxide emissions have become a very tangible concern. CO2 emissions from cars
and coal power plants like the ones in North Dakota are considered by many scientists to be a chief cause of global warming. The science is
complicated, and will be covered in much greater depth later in this series, but the basics are this: as more CO2 is emitted it causes a thickening
of the atmosphere that traps the sun's heat. Now that the problem is becoming more widely understood, the question becomes how to stop it.
The most obvious solution - regulating CO2 emissions - is gaining traction from Brussels, Belgium, to St. Paul, Minn. But both
environmental groups and the coal industry agree that such regulation will hurt the coal business and its customers.
For western North Dakota - where coal mining and power plant jobs are a way of life for some and an indirect
economic boon for all - the decisions made over the next few years could have a major impact.
The coal industry is a major part of the economy; cutting emissions hurts local coal
businesses and workers.
Jonathan Rivoli January 20 2008 Bismarck Tribune “The Growing Concern Over CO2”
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the state gets 93 percent of its electricity from coal - a ratio that,
despite much-hyped alternative energy projects over the last few years, remains unchanged from 1990. In addition to producing
most of its own power, North Dakota uses its coal to send power to neighboring states like Minnesota. The
production of all this coal-generated electricity energizes the region's economy. In Oliver and Mercer counties, the heart of
coal country, the industry accounts for nearly 41 percent of all employment and 66 percent of wages earned, according
to data compiled from Job Service North Dakota and local economic development officials. It pumps more than $43 million in wages
alone into those counties' economies. Indeed, coal is the lifeblood of places like Washburn and Underwood, where the nearby Coal
Creek Station Power Plant and Falkirk mine are at the center of life. For people like Hank Rasmusson, an Underwood resident
who has owned a small gas station near the center of town since the 1960s, decisions made half a continent or half a world away
could have a big effect on life. "It could have a tremendous impact," Rasmusson said. "I could lock up, that's what could
happen." Rasmusson, 66, said many of his customers at R and S Oil Co. work at the nearby mines and power plants. A
contraction in the coal industry means many of them might not stick around Underwood to shop at his store, he said.
23
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Impacts***
24
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
25
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
26
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Railroads Module
27
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Hegemony Module
Coal use is key to hegemony- key to coal to liquid transitions
James Hannah March 19 2006 “Military's push to turn coal into fuel picking up speed”,
http://www.ultracleanfuels.com/articles/pr_031906.htm
DAYTON, Ohio - The Pentagon is trying to persuade investors and the energy industry to embrace an 80-year-old
technology to turn coal into liquid fuel to power planes, tanks and other battlefield vehicles. Officials have been
crisscrossing the country, meeting with energy companies and state government officials to sell them on the idea. At the same time, military
researchers have been testing fuel produced by the process to make sure it is suitable for military vehicles, especially
older ones. Michael Aimone, an assistant Air Force deputy chief of staff, was in North Dakota last week to discuss a search for sites for a plant
to turn coal into fuel for jets and trucks. He said a study to explore the idea of a plant to make 30,000 barrels of fuel a day from coal is focusing
on North Dakota and Ohio, though other states will be considered as well. The military is worried that political pressure or terrorist acts could
cut the flow of oil from the Middle East or hurricanes or terrorists could destroy U.S. refineries. "We know what the technical challenges are,
but we don't see any show-stoppers," said William Harrison, senior adviser for the Pentagon's Assured Fuels Initiative. "There is still a
level of uncertainty, but it looks like the technology is mature enough." There are roadblocks. Building coal-to-fuel
plants is expensive - possibly up to $5 billion. Investors worry that their money could go up in smoke if the global price of
oil drops, budding government subsidies dry up, or tougher environmental rules are put into place, said Kevin Book, a Virginia-based senior
analyst for Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. Inc. But then there is coal - lots of it. The Middle East has about 685 billion barrels of oil
compared with 22 billion barrels in the United States. However, there is enough coal in the United States to produce 964 billion barrels of fuel,
according to the Pentagon. Montana, with enough coal to produce 240 billion barrels of fuel, leads the pack, followed by Illinois, Wyoming,
West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Ohio. "We have probably 250 years' worth of coal," said Mike Carey, president of the Ohio Coal
Association. "It would have a tremendous impact on the coal industry." The industry is already on the rise. Demand for U.S. coal is expected
to be a record 1.2 billion tons this year, up from 1.18 billion in 2005, according to the National Mining Association. Production is forecast to be
1.16 billion tons, a 3.2 percent increase over 2005. Coal is used mainly to generate electricity and in steel-making. Although experts say the
coal-to-fuel process works, it is being done in just a few small demonstration projects. The Pentagon began looking at coal in 2001 when
Congress earmarked $13 million to investigate the Fischer-Tropsch process in which coal is gasified and then liquefied into fuel. The
technology was developed by Germany in the 1920s and used by South Africa beginning in the 1950s. The military accounts for about 4
percent of U.S. fuel consumption. The process promises to produce a cleaner fuel that gives off more energy per pound
and be less subject to freezing. It would reduce transportation costs and ease logistical headaches by enabling the
military to use one fuel for all its planes and vehicles instead of the more than half dozen different fuels now used.
"See how beautifully clean that fuel is," Harrison said, pointing to a dancing flame inside a large glass tube at a Wright-Patterson Air Force
Base lab. The flame turned from orange to blue as the soot was reduced when the fire began to burn fuel similar to what would be produced
from coal. Harrison, chief of the Air Force's fuels lab at the base, has been trying to light a fire in the private sector. He has spoken to state and
industry officials in Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Montana and North Dakota. Some energy companies are eager to have the
military for a customer. Houston-based DKRW Energy hopes to begin producing coal-based diesel fuel in 2010. The company needs to
complete the permitting process and obtain financing for a $1 billion plant that would produce 11,000 barrels of fuel a day in Medicine Bow,
Wyo. Syntroleum, based in Tulsa, Okla., converts natural gas into liquid fuels and is currently involved in several coal-to-fuel projects.
President Jack Holmes said increasing demand for oil should keep the price high and coal-based fuel attractive. "We think that now's the
time," Holmes said. "If we can get these first few plants built and running and get the acceptability in the government
and industry, there's a big market to do this." Others point out that similar talk in previous years evaporated when Mideast
producers cut the price of oil. Dick Bajura, director of the National Research Center for Coal and Energy at West Virginia University advised
supporters of the coal-to-fuel idea to make sure "the people in OPEC land aren't going to pull the rug out from underneath you." Crude oil is
selling for more than $60 a barrel. In December, the U.S. Department of Energy scrapped its predictions that oil prices would drop to around
$30 a barrel by 2025, saying that costs will persist near or above $50 a barrel for years. As the military evaluates the fuel made from coal, the
Energy Department has funded efforts to refine the process. In January, the department awarded a $100 million grant for the construction of
what may end up being the nation's first commercial coal-to-fuel plant, in eastern Pennsylvania. Private financing is still being secured for the
$612 million plant, which could be up and running by 2009. The risk to Mideast oil supplies was underscored in February when suicide
bombers in explosives-packed cars attacked the world's largest oil processing facility. The attack was the first on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia
and sent world oil prices soaring. Syntroleum's Holmes said that even though a commercial plant would be expensive to build, it could operate
for 30 years or more. "We're not just trying to build a company, we're trying to build an industry," he said. "The acceptance of a new idea is
always difficult. Everybody wants to be the first person to build the second plant."
28
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
29
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Clean Coal***
30
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
31
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Uniqueness***
32
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
33
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
34
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
35
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Links***
36
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
37
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
RPS Links
RPS displaces the expansion of the coal industry
UCS (Union of Concerned Scientists) February 2005 “Increasing the Texas Renewable Energy Standard:
Economic and Employment Benefits”, http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/clean_energy_policies/increase-the-
texas-renewable-energy-standard.html
Currently, Texas relies heavily on fossil fuels and nuclear power for most of its electricity. This reliance on fossil fuels—particularly natural gas
and coal—for electricity generation will increase if Texas continues on its current path. Increasing the existing state RPS would
stimulate additional renewable energy development and help diversify the electricity mix. Under the 20 percent proposal,
Texas would increase its total homegrown renewable power to more than 17,800 MW by 20253 —producing enough electricity to meet the
needs of 4.9 million average-sized homes.4 Texas’ strong wind resources would power the majority of this development, with bioenergy and
solar resources also making significant contributions to the mix. For much of the 20-year forecast period, renewable energy primarily displaces
natural gas generation. In the later years, renewable energy also helps to displace new coal generation.
38
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Nuclear Power
Plan boosts nuke power, making clean coal not cost-competitive
WNA July 2004 "Clean Coal' Technologies", World Nuclear Association,
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf83.htm
The most promising "clean coal" technology involves using the coal to make hydrogen from water, then burying
the resultant carbon dioxide by-product and burning the hydrogen. The greatest challenge is bringing the cost of
this down sufficiently for "clean coal" to compete with nuclear power on the basis of near-zero emissions for base-
load power.
Clean coal and nuke power are replacements for each other
NRC (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission ) May 1996 “Alternatives to License Renewal",
http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1437/v1/part08.html
The United States has abundant low-cost coal reserves, and the price of coal for electric generation is likely to increase at a
relatively slow rate. Even with recent environmental legislation, new coal capacity is expected to be an affordable technology
for reliable, near-term development and for potential use as a replacement technology for retired nuclear power
plants. Another potential alternative to license renewal would be to continue to generate electricity from non-
nuclear plants beyond the original date at which they were scheduled to shut down permanently. This alternative
would have the effect mainly of substituting coal, gas, oil, or hydropower plants for nuclear facilities. In recent years electric
utilities have given considerable attention to the issue of repowering non-nuclear generating facilities. Repowering is the primary process by
which utilities extend the life of their generating plants. It is comparable to refurbishing a nuclear plant. Since the average age of all types of
fossil units is over 30 years, utilities have been exploring repowering older fossil units as a way of avoiding even larger capital outlays for new
plants (Bretz 1994). As of March 1994, about 30 units with a total capacity of 3000 MW(e) had been proposed for repowering. Assuming
regulatory environmental compliance and a successful application of lessons learned from federal clean coal
technology demonstrations, DOE estimates that up to 248 GW(e) of generating capacity could be repowered or
retrofitted with clean coal technologies by the year 2010 (DOE/EIS-0146). In 1991 DOE estimated that 2500 coal-fired plants
were 30 years old or older (making them candidates for repowering) and that this total would rise to 3500 to 3700 in 1998. From a utility's
perspective, not only might repowering be cost-effective; but also environmental goals, particularly improved air quality, could be easier to
accomplish since improved, less polluting technologies would be installed during repowering.
39
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Impacts***
40
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
2nc Transition
Quick transition from coal will sink the US economy- -clean coal allows smooth transition
Tribune Business News April 23 2008 “Advocate: Coal not perfect, but vital”
Apr. 23--Coal industry advocate Joe Lucas likens the country's dependence on coal-fired power to a big liner crossing the
ocean. Some people may think they can change the liner's direction instantaneously. But try to make a quick U-turn, and the ship is
more likely to capsize. A better approach is to slow down, make a calculated turn and then accelerate, he said
Tuesday. Continuing the analogy, Lucas said that rather than junking coal-fired power plants as the primary source of U.S.
electricity in favor of renewable-energy sources, it is wiser to invest more money steadily into clean coal
technologies. Innovations to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions then can be deployed across the industry, in conjunction with the
development of other power sources, to stem global warming without strangling the economy and hurting ordinary people by increasing the
cost of electricity. "There's no perfect energy resource. Coal's not, but neither are the other sources," Lucas, vice president of communications
for the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, said on Earth Day to The Salt Lake Tribune editorial board. "There should always
be a search for continuous environmental improvement, and we think you can do it with coal," he added. "We're not
supportive of coal at the expense of other fuels. We think you should keep all on the table, including coal, because it is the bedrock of our
electrical supply."
41
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
42
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Affirmative Answers***
43
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
44
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Coal industry collapsing – environmental standards, public opinion and lack of financing
Salon.com May 15 2008 “Celebrate clean coal, come on!”
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/05/15/coal_marketing/
These messages and other variations on the coal-is-great theme are flooding the nation courtesy of the coal industry, coal-fueled utilities,
railroads and related industries. The pro-coal marketing campaign -- known by its tag line "Clean Coal" -- has kicked into high
gear as prospects for new plants have turned bleak. Wall Street is tightening financing, leading to what one analyst told
the Christian Science Monitor is a "de facto moratorium on coal power." The expected election of a more
environmentally friendly president may lead to the first federal limits on carbon dioxide emissions. Even red states
like Kansas are now battling the construction of coal-fired plants. Last year, 59 new plants were either canceled or
halted across the nation. When it comes to the threat of global warming, "the coal industry are the last people to get it," says Daniel J.
Weiss, senior fellow and director of climate strategy at the Center for American Progress, a nonprofit, progressive think tank. "That's why
they're fighting so hard. They're on a death spiral right now."
45
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
46
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
47
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
48
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
49
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
50
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
51
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
52
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
There are only two IGCC clean coal plants and there are no plans for more
David Eggert. “New coal-fired power plants generate opposition,” The Associated Press April 14, 2008
http://blog.mlive.com/tricities/2008/04/new_coalfired_power_plants_opp.html
Citing climate change, the state Department of Environmental Quality has asked companies proposing new plants
to consider a new type of coal use: integrated gasification combined cycle technology, or IGCC. Such plants are
considered cleaner because they produce electricity by burning gas made from coal and have the potential to trap
greenhouse gases and store them underground. But only two of the plants exist in the U.S., leading Consumers
Energy to conclude building one near Bay City would be too expensive and unreliable. A 700-megawatt IGCC
plant is in the works in Alma, though Florida-based M&M Energy LLC hasn't yet sought air permits from the
state.
53
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Clean Coal is a myth and will still cause pollution – Real “clean” technology is still decades
away.
GPACE (Great Plains Alliance for Clean Energy) 7/10/08 “Our Energy Economy,” http://www.gpace.org/?q=our-
energy-economy
Coal is not a clean energy source, whether considering pollutants such as mercury, nitrous oxide, sulphur dioxide, or ozone (which
cause illness and premature death, especially among children) or the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. Advances have been made in the
industry to develop and implement scrubbers that remove some of the mercury and other pollutants from coal-fired
emissions, but these processes simply remove those pollutants from airborne emissions and capture them in
sludges or slurries that are then stored at the plants and/or dumped into rivers or groundwater. As for the greenhouse
gas carbon dioxide, there is currently no existing technology that can remove carbon dioxide from coal-fired
emissions and effectively “sequester” it. Most credible experts agree that so-called “clean coal” technologies are
at least ten to twenty years off, if in fact ever feasible at all. Additionally, carbon capture and sequestration technology for
pulverized coal plants uses three times as much water as the coal plant alone – which already uses vast amounts of water.
54
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
55
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
56
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
57
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
58
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
59
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Even the best-performing clean coal plants release huge amounts of pollutants.
Greenpeace January 2005 “Clean Coal” Technology”,
http://www.greenpeace.org.nz/pdfs/CleanCoalBriefing.pdf
Clean Coal” Still Pollutes The industry prides itself on the efficiency of some of its pollution controls. However when you look at the
actual quantities of pollutants emitted the figures are not so impressive. For example, the World Coal Institute uses the Lethabo
Power Station in South Africa as an example of a successful emissions control programme. The plant’s ESPs remove 99.8% of the
fly ash. Nevertheless the plant still emits around 60,000 tons of particulates into the atmosphere every year. Futuregen – what
kind of future? The industry rhetoric sounds very enticing – working towards a zero-emission coal-fired future. The $1 billion dollar Futuregen
project in the USA is based on experimental IGCC technology. Intended to create the world's first ‘zero-emissions’ fossil fuel plant, the project
will take 10 years to complete. It will be even longer before the technology is commercially available.40 In reality however, there can be no
such thing as a zero-emission plant. After being collected by pollution control devices to prevent emissions to the air,
pollutants are merely shifted to another waste stream as solid or liquid wastes.41 Either that, or waste products, which are
contaminated with heavy metals, are sold on for construction use. This results in these dangerous contaminants being released
into the environment.
60
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
61
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Electricity is the backbone to the U.S. economy and stable electricity prices are to generate
sufficient amounts of electricity
NEI (Nuclear Energy Institute) 2004 “Nuclear Energy and the Nations Future Prosperity”,
http://www.nei.org/documents/Vision2020_Booklet.pdf
More than half of the academy’s top 20 achievements depend on electricity. What is more striking, however, is how the diffuse items on the list
interact, in combination with electricity, to power the nation’s economic progress. One prominent example is the
country’s technology-reliant digital economy. Such an economy could not operate, let alone prosper, without
reliable electricity to power computers (ranked eighth), electronics (ranked ninth) and the Internet (ranked thirteenth) that are so basic
to our economic success. In other words, electricity is an economic multiplier—a gateway technology that fosters
economic growth and additional technological progress. The strong historical correlation between electricity
demand and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is powerful evidence that electricity plays an essential role in economic
growth (see Fig.5 ). As the nation’s GDP rises,electricity demand follows with near lockstep precision. Stated differently,increased
availability of electricity spurred wider and more diverse applications of that electricity. This in turn spawned
increasing economic growth as the nation developed new ways to derive increased economic value from electricity and to improve the
overall standard of living. While these supply and demand variables remain in balance, electricity prices remain stable
and economic growth continues. Moreover,the wider application of electrotechnologies results in greater productivity gains and the
more efficient use of this valuable commodity. This can be seen in the measure of electricity intensity—the ratio of kilowatthours per unit of
GDP. As electricity demand increases over time,electricity intensity has fallen since 1974 (see Fig.6 ).
62
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Clean coal incurs huge costs in plant construction and waste disposal. And it doesn’t work.
CNNMoney October 19 2004
But critics say that newer "clean coal" technology, for all its promised benefits, is expensive. And some say that the technology, despite
its positive-sounding name, will create expensive environmental headaches. The need for power "With nuclear and hydro resources
pretty much tapped out, it comes down to a debate between coal and gas," said Mark Morey, director of the Cambridge Energy Resource
Association's North America power group. According to the EIA, coal is plentiful and cheap, with domestic supplies projected to last two
centuries or more. About half the nation's electricity is already generated by coal-fired plants, so there's an infrastructure for coal in place. And
with electricity demand expected to grow sharply in coming decades, proponents say clean coal is the way to go. "Clean coal technology is the
future," said Ohio Coal Association President Mike Carey. Some big companies are betting heavily on the technology. General Electric
(Research) and Bechtel are jointly developing a model for coal gasification plants, which convert coal into a gas. The plants are considered the
most vaunted of the clean coal technologies by the EIA and coal industry leaders. An expensive proposal Clean coal plants aren't cheap to
build, and costs to dispose of their waste are steep. Bechtel said the initial cost to build a coal gasification plant is 25 percent
more than a medium-sized conventional coal-fired power plant. A conventional plant costs about $780 million to build, according to
Bechtel, so a comparable coal-gas plant would cost about $975 million. "There are a lot of parallels between coal and nuclear energy," said
Cambridge Energy's Morey. "The plants are really expensive to build and there's an issue about disposing of large amounts of
[carbon dioxide] waste that could get really costly." While there has never been a law regulating carbon dioxide emissions in the
U.S., many scientists, utility analysts, environmentalists and business executives admit that CO2 emissions are the chief cause of global
warming. "In ways we've looked at pollution in the past, coal has cleaned up. But the bigger problem we face now is carbon dioxide, which
clean coal plants still emit," said Dave Hamilton, the Sierra Club's director of Global Warming and Energy Programs. "Businesses know carbon
dioxide will be regulated in the future and would rather make it part of the cost to build a new plant now rather than wait and have to add
technology," said Morey. "These plants are 40- to 50-year investments." "Many ways of taking care of carbon dioxide are being studied,
particularly carbon sequestration," said Carey. Trapping and holding CO2 is the most popular method of dealing with emissions from coal-gas
plants; and it's part of President Bush's FutureGen initiative to create the world's first zero-emissions fossil fuel plant. But trapping carbon
is expensive. For an average traditional coal-fired plant, which produces some 750 million tons of carbon a year, the annual cost of trapping
CO2 is about $31 million a year, said Stephan Singer, head of European Climate and Energy policy with WWF International, which works
closely with the EU on climate change and energy. Analysts and environmentalists also say there's little evidence to show
this process will ever work. "If it all leaks, then you're right back where you started, plus you've wasted all that money,"
said Hamilton.
Clean coal is billions of dollars and several years away. Once it’s up and running, daily
operating costs are through the roof.
Greenpeace January 2005 “Clean Coal” Technology”,
http://www.greenpeace.org.nz/pdfs/CleanCoalBriefing.pdf
Many of the ‘clean coal’ technologies that industry is currently touting are still in the development stage and will
take hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars and many more years before they are commercially available.
“Clean coal” technologies are also extremely expensive in terms of day to day running costs. The US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) estimates the capital costs of a typical IGCC plant (an experimental low-
emission coal power station) to be US$1,383/kW, $2,088/kW with carbon sequestration. This compares with
US$1,015/kW for a typical wind farm.7
63
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
64
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
65
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
***Peak Coal***
66
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
67
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
68
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
69
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
70
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
71
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Don’t buy any evidence written before 2008 – world coal reserves are being re-estimated
David Strahan, award-winning investigative journalist. “The great coal hole,” The Last Oil Shock/New Scientist
1/17 2008 http://www.energybulletin.net/node/39236
Mine below the surface, however, and the numbers are not so reassuring. Over
the past 20 years, official reserves have fallen by
more than 170 billion tonnes, even though we have consumed nothing like that much. What’s more, by a measure
known as the reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio – the number of years the reserves would last at the current rate of consumption –
coal has declined even more dramatically. In February 2007, the European Commission’s Institute for Energy reported that the R/P
ratio had dropped by more than a third between 2000 and 2005, from 277 years to just 155. If this rate of decline were to continue, the institute
warns, “the world could run out of economically recoverable …reserves of coal much earlier than widely anticipated”. In 2006, according to
figures from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the R/P fell again, to 144 years. So why are estimates of coal reserves falling so fast –
and why now? One reason is clear: consumption is soaring, particularly in the developing world. Global coal consumption rose 35 per cent
between 2000 and 2006. In 2006, China alone added 102 gigawatts of coal-fired generating capacity, enough to produce three times as much
electricity as California consumed that year. China is by far the world’s largest producer of coal, but such is its appetite for the fuel that in 2007
it became a net importer. According to the International Energy Agency, coal consumption is likely to grow ever faster in both China and India.
Another less noticed reason is that in recent years many countries have revised their official coal reserves downwards, in
some cases massively, and often by far more than had been mined since the previous assessment. For instance, the
UK and Germany have cut their reserves by more than 90 per cent and Poland by 50 per cent. Declared global
reserves of high-quality “hard coal” have fallen by 25 per cent since 1990, from almost 640 billion tonnes to less
than 480 billion – again more than could be accounted for by consumption.
72
UMKC SDI 2008 Coal Disadvantage
LouGie Lab
Peak Coal- No
The DOE concludes that we have 200 years of coal reserves
Cathy Booth Thomas. “Is Coal Golden?” Time Oct. 02, 2006
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1541270,00.html?iid=chix-sphere
Over the next 25 years, the Department of Energy predicts the use of coal will provide an increasing portion of our power--up to nearly 60%,
from 52%. Convened by the Secretary of Energy, the National Coal Council (McCall is a member) has laid out an aggressive energy plan using
coal over the next two decades. Coal production is expected to soar from 1.1 billion tons a year to 1.8 billion--mostly
from the West, especially Wyoming's Powder River Basin. New transmission lines, like the $6 billion Frontier Line, will carry electricity
from the coalfields of Wyoming to consumers in California. Peabody Energy, the nation's largest coal company, with 2005 sales of $4.6 billion,
up 28%, and earnings of $423 million, up 140%, is in acquisition mode worldwide. The Bush Administration has put down its own $2 billion
bet, largely by pursuing FutureGen, a next-generation coal- fired plant promising near zero pollution emissions--all in the hope of making the
nation less oil dependent. The U.S. is, after all, the Saudi Arabia of coal. We have more than 200 years of coal reserves at
our current burn rate. There are 440 coal-fired plants across the nation, with proposals to build 153 more in 42 states over the next decade,
at a cost of $137 billion, to provide electricity to 93 million homes and support our energy-guzzling lifestyles.
Their arguments about bias are wrong – coal reserves are well known and accurately
surveyed
Dave Rutledge, Chair for the Division of Engineering and Applied Science at Caltech. “The Coal Question and
Climate Change,” The Oil Drum, 6/25 2007 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2697
Oil reserves are rightly viewed skeptically at The Oil Drum, in large part because of fraud by the OPEC countries. Coal reserves are
compiled by the national geological surveys, and unlike oil reserves, they are honest. However, recently Dr. Werner Zittel
and Jorg Schindler and their Energy Watch Group have written an important paper “Coal: Resources and Future Production” that shows that
there are major problems with the reliability of coal reserves, and indicates that the reserves may be too high. Coal is different from oil,
and much of the intuition that we may have developed about oil from nights pondering TOD posts is wrong for
coal. Finding oil is hard, and we have not found it all yet. In contrast, people knew where the coal was a century
ago. Once oil is found, it is likely to be produced quickly, so much so that discovery history is routinely used to
predict future production. On the other hand, there are large coal fields that are almost undeveloped. As an example,
Montana has larger coal reserves than Europe, Africa, or South America, but it is producing less than 0.1% of that coal each year. Our
estimate of future coal production depends a lot on whether we think that the people of Montana will get into serious
coal production. Finally, in contrast to the situation for oil, the world market for coal is only partially developed. Most coal is consumed in
the country it is produced in, and there are large differences in prices, even in the same country. For this reason, we will analyze production on
a regional basis. I will apply the techniques to coal that are routinely used here for oil, and consider the consequences for future climate change.
People who are interested in more details can get the spreadsheets with the raw data at my web site, with lots of additional figures and source
links.
73