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Elections Updates
Elections Updates..........................................................................................................................................................................1
***AFF*** ...................................................................................................................................................................................2
OBAMA LOSE 2AC ....................................................................................................................................................................2
Ohio 2AC.......................................................................................................................................................................................3
Michigan 2AC...............................................................................................................................................................................4
No Link – Michigan Specific........................................................................................................................................................5
Colorado 2AC................................................................................................................................................................................6
Prefer State Specific Arguments 2AC...........................................................................................................................................7
Obama Lose – General Trends – 1AR...........................................................................................................................................8
Obama Lose – Michigan 1AR ......................................................................................................................................................9
McCain Win.................................................................................................................................................................................10
AT: Republican Turnout...............................................................................................................................................................11
Obama Will Strike Iran................................................................................................................................................................12
2AC – No Internal Link...............................................................................................................................................................13
***NEG*** ................................................................................................................................................................................14
1NC UNQ....................................................................................................................................................................................14
Obama Wins – Unq Wall ............................................................................................................................................................15
Obama Good 1NC Link...............................................................................................................................................................16
Energy Key Issue / AT: McCain Won’t Get Credit......................................................................................................................17
AT: Economy Outweighs.............................................................................................................................................................18
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
***AFF***
Election is too close to call – it will turn on issues closer to the election
The Washington Quarterly Summer 2008 lexis
In the face of all of this, it
is remarkable that McCain runs even in the national polls with Obama and Clinton. State-by-state electoral
college rundowns similarly show a general election that is too close to call, likely to turn on events that have not yet occurred
and circumstances that have yet to develop.
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
Ohio 2AC
McCain is winning Ohio –polls
Rasmussen Reports 7/22/08
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election
John McCain has opened a modest lead over Barack Obama in the key swing state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone
survey in the Buckeye State shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month and the month before
McCain held a insignificant one-point lead over Obama.
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
Michigan 2AC
McCain is gaining ground in Michigan
Grand Rapids Press 7/25/08 lexis
LANSING -- Republican John McCain has narrowed the gap between himself and Democrat Barack Obama in Michigan, gaining
among independents, according to a poll released Thursday.
Forty-six percent of those polled say they would back Obama if the presidential election were held now, while 42 percent would
support McCain. Nine percent were undecided. A month ago, Obama held a 48 percent to 42 percent lead over McCain in a
Quinnipiac poll.
Michigan key
CNN, 6/16/08 (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/16/obama.michigan/)
(CNN) -- There might be a lot of routes to the White House for Sen. Barack Obama, but just about every one of those
electoral roads runs through Michigan.
That's probably one reason Obama is in Michigan on Monday and Tuesday as he continues a two-week campaign swing focusing on the economy.
"It's good to be here with so many good friends," Obama told the crowd at his rally in Flint, Michigan, on Monday. After a primary controversy that left
some bad blood among Democrats, Obama is hoping that Michigan is still his friend.
Michigan's a battleground -- or swing -- state, one that both political parties will fight for in the presidential election.
"It will be hard for Democrats to win without Michigan. They've only done it once in the past 50 years. That was in 1976, when
Michigan voted for native son Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter. But Carter made up for it in the South," CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider said.
Michigan voted for the Democrats in the last four presidential contests, but it's been close this decade. Former Vice President Al Gore won the state by 5
percentage points in 2000 and Sen. John Kerry came away with a 3-point victory in 2004.
The Obama campaign has its eyes on Florida and Ohio, the two crucial states that put President Bush over the top in 2000 and 2004, but it's also exploring
other strategies for an electoral victory.
Just about every map to victory appears to include keeping Michigan and its 17 electoral votes in the Democratic camp. But
there could be a kink in that plan -- Michigan and Florida broke party rules by moving their primaries up into January. None of the major Democratic
candidates campaigned in either state during the primaries and Obama removed his name from the ballot in Michigan.
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
Colorado 2AC
McCain is winning Colorado
Denver Post 7/25/08 lexis
Sen. John McCain pulled slightly ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in a new poll of likely Colorado voters, erasing a five-point lead
the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee had a month ago.
If the election were held today, 46 percent in Colorado would pick the Republican nominee versus 44 percent for Obama,
according to the poll, released Thursday by Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University with The Wall Street Journal and Washingtonpost.com.
Though the margin is a statistical tie, McCain has gained since June, according to the survey. Obama led in Colorado 49 percent to
McCain's 44 percent a month ago.
"Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac
University Polling Institute. "It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain."
Colorado key
Denver Post, 6/30/08
Brimming with individualistic, self-reliant, libertarian-leaning voters, the Rocky Mountain West will play a pivotal role in a year when
independent voters are expected to make or break John McCain's and Barack Obama's presidential bids.
Voters here in recent elections have backed individual candidates regardless of political affiliation and have responded to messages emphasizing economic
populism, fiscal discipline and the balance between individual rights and governmental protections.
Already, McCain is emphasizing his 22 years as a Western senator sensitive to the region's issues and personality, and touting his record of standing up to
both political parties. Obama is portraying himself as a reformer, someone who won't engage in Washington-style politics and is committed to taking the
country in a better direction.
While voters have elected Democrats for state and federal offices in these states, those candidates have been moderates or conservatives, many of them more
comfortable in cowboy boots and a bolo tie than a Washington, D.C.-style suit.
With the exception of former President Bill Clinton's election in 1992 (largely due to the impact of third-party candidate Ross Perot) and reelection four
years later, a Democratic candidate has won only one state in the eight-state region since Lyndon Johnson nearly swept it in 1964.
"The question is whether the national Democrats are finally in a position to appeal to Western voters," said Dan Kemmis, former speaker and minority leader
of the Montana House of Representatives and director of the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West. "Can they address and be sensitive to Western
issues?"
The stakes couldn't be higher. If just Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico had cast their electoral votes for John F. Kerry in 2004, he'd be president
now.
Here's the second half of an in-depth look at four states that could prove pivotal in determining our next president. Colorado and New Mexico
are below, and Nevada and Montana can be found here.
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
EXTEND 2AC #1 - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EVIDENCE – McCain is gaining ground in
all the key battle ground states – even Obama’s leads are minimal and trends show increasing
support for McCain
EXTEND 2AC #2 – THE WASHINGTON TIMES EVIDENCE – Obama’s flip flops and post
nomination strategy have shifted the tides of public opinion – the candidates are tied in overall
numbers – but McCain has momentum – he’s the only one gaining ground – more evidence
LA Times 7/25/08 lexis
Even as his turn on the global stage hit an emotional peak Thursday with a speech before a cheering crowd of more than 200,000 in Germany, Barack
Obama faced new evidence of stubborn election challenges back home.
Fresh polls show that he has been unable to convert weeks of extensive media coverage into a widened lead. And some prominent
Democrats whose support could boost his campaign are still not enthusiastic about his candidacy.
Several new surveys show that Obama is in a tight race or even losing ground to Republican John McCain, both nationally and in two
important swing states, Colorado and Minnesota. One new poll offered a possible explanation for his troubles: A minority of voters see Obama as a familiar
figure with whom they can identify.
Republicans are moving to exploit this vulnerability, trying to encourage unease among voters by building the impression that
Obama's overseas trip and other actions show he has a sense of entitlement that suggests he believes the White House is
already his.
PREFER THESE UNIQUENESS ARGUMENTS – They subsume their arguments and are
predictive - their evidence only speaks to current polls – our evidence talks about trends and
momentum which is a more accurate way to decide who will win in November
EXTEND 2AC #3 – The WASHINGTON QUARTERLY EVIDENCE – they should get little to no
weight to their disad – the election is too close to call and will hinge on some future action – EVEN
IF they win their link arguments we’ll win that other issues would tip making the link inevitable
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
EXTEND 2AC #1 – THE GRAND RAPIDS PRESS EVIDENCE – McCain is gaining ground in
Michigan – even if they win that Obama is ahead now you should prefer our evidence because it is
indicative of future trends
EXTEND 2AC #2 – THE GRAND RAPIDS PRESS EVIDENCE - McCain is ahead with
independents – the newest polls show that independents have flipped their votes he’s ahead 44% to
41%
PREFER THIS EVIDENCE – it cites a poll which was taken AFTER the poll that all their
evidence cites – only we read accurate numbers
AND – Michigan Key extend CNN evidence – all roads to the white house must run through
Michigan – if Obama can’t win there he’ll lose the election
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
McCain Win
McCain winning
AFP 7/25/08 lexis
Another poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed McCain had cut Obama's lead in the key battleground
states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and overtaken Obama in voter support in Colorado.
"It's been a good month for McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we
are seeing in the national polls," said Peter Brown, the institute's assistant director.
"The good news for McCain is that he has improved his standing in Colorado and Michigan, two states that are critical to
each man's strategy," Brown said.
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
***NEG***
1NC UNQ
Obama will win – independents and Bush’s popularity
Washington Post 7/24/08 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/07/24/ST2008072401398.html
The national political environment -- as reflected in these four statewide polls -- also seems to suggest major hurdles for McCain in the
fall. President George W. Bush remains a decidedly unpopular figure to the general public with no more than 31 percent in any of the four
states approving of the job he is doing. The numbers are even more daunting among self-identified independents who typically make up
the swing vote in a presidential election. In Colorado, where independents have traditionally leaned toward Republicans, seven in ten unaffiliated
voters expressed disapproval with the job Bush is doing. Those numbers are nearly identical in each of the other three states.
The polls also reveal widespread pessimism about the future of the country -- never a good sign for the candidate running
under the party banner of the incumbent. In Minnesota, just one in five voters called themselves very or somewhat satisfied with "the way things
are going in the nation today" while a whopping 77 percent pronounced themselves dissatisfied. The outlook was even worse in the other three states, with
dissatisfied voters at 78 percent in Colorado, 81 percent in Wisconsin, and 84 percent in Michigan.
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
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SDI 2008 Elections Updates
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