Global Vision

T H E I N T E R N AT I O N A L M AG A Z I N E F O R B US I N E S S E X E C U T I V E S

number 2 - 2012

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There can only be one!

Can the political platform on which the President will campaign distance itself from the 2008 change agenda which has largely been lost amongst recession and conflict overseas in Iraq and Afghanistan ? FOR THE LIKELy CHALLENGER MITT ROMNEy (REPUBLICAN): At the time of writing, Mitt Romney has not announced a running mate who would assume the role of Vice-President were Mitt Romney to prevail in the November election. Politicians Mark Rubio and Bobby Jindhal both would appeal to southern states and ethnic voters. Mitt Romney is shown to be lagging behind the President in terms of his appeal to women voters. In addition to which his detractors note that the entrepreneurial nature of his message, based on his experience with voters could be a two-edged sword given employment losses in the economy. wHAT wILL BE THE LIKELy OUTCOME OF THE 2012 ELECTION?
PRESIDENT OF THE uNITED STATES, BARACK OBAMA

The uS 2012 election nominations race

BY DR. J E F F R E Y B R A D FO R D

Literally as this issue of Globalvision magazine went to print the contest within the Republican political party to identify the challenger to President barack Obama in the 2012 Presidential election de facto came to a close.

Whilst the nomination, the outcome of state-by-state voting is yet to be ratified at a convention later this summer Mitt Romney, former governor of the state of Massacheussets has achieved an unassailable position with the suspension of the campaign of his closest rival. The race has involved the four main candidates fund raising and crisscrossing the united States to build support for their campaign and to build their brand in the public eye. Campaigning has relied on the classic mediums of public speaking, advertising and of course television. Over several months a series of televised debates between the candidates has been the principal way to follow the development of the candidates style and political agenda. The four lead candidates at the end of March 2012 were Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum (former Senator for Pennsylvania), Newt Gingrich (former speaker of the House of Representatives) and Ron Paul (a long serving Congressman from Texas). uS political candidate expenditures are tracked by the Federal Election Commission and as at the end of February 2012 a total of some $330 million had been raised by candidates for the forthcoming election and is displayed in the graphic below by candidate; Clearly the fundraising machine of the incumbent President is considerably ahead of the Republican front-runner Mitt Romney and this
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will become increasingly important as the election season starts in earnest when the need and resources to campaign across the nation and across media channels becomes essential. What then will be the likely big questions and issues for the election ? Given the certainty as to the principal candidates some of the likely questions to consider include the following; FOR THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (DEMOCRAT): Will the President choose to retain his running mate, Vice-President Joe Biden or consider changing the ticket to include Hillary Clinton ? Secretary of State Clinton who competed with Obama for the 2008 Democrat nomination has proven her competence and political loyalty during the past term whilst her husband, former President Bill Clinton made a substantial effort campaigning in the midterm elections. Including Hillary Clinton on the 2012 ticket would make her the first realistic female candidate for Vice-President and would assist the Democrat Party in securing the Hispanic vote in the Southern states long term admirers of the Clinton Presidency.
FORMER GOVERNOR AND LIKELY REPuBLICAN NOMINEE MITT ROMNEY FORMER uS SENATOR RICK SANTORuM

Whilst it is too early to predict the outcome of the November 2012 Presidential election there are a few indicators as to what to expect. Firstly, the battle between the Republican candidates suggests that the election will have a measure of negativity in its messaging. Second, the crucial issue for both the President and the challenger is to keep the electorate focused on their view of the economy and economic prospects. Secondly, in American politics the incumbent often has the advantage in terms of time to watch his opponent emerge and the prestige which being President offers in terms of leverage for fundraising. In any event the election will prove an important time for reflection on the past four years and the opportunity to change or even perhaps set a new course for the next few years in a country which still by many measures has the power to influence international events.

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