Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Abigail Corcoran
MBA 2008
Richard Pzena, Founder and Co-Chief investment Officer of Pzena Asset Management
David Kessler
MBA 2008
shares to drop. The question Pzena and his team try to answer is whether the
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Students at Columbia Business School have the unparalleled advantage of learning from value investing luminaries including Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Capital and Bruce Greenwald
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But be careful which family you get into bed with. Asked how an investor can distinguish families that are running public companies for the benefit of all Keynote Speaker Thoshareholders, from those who mas A. Russo, Partner, view the assets of the compaGardner Russo & nies they control as their own Gardner private piggy bank, Russo replied that the familys ability to Russo advised attract and maintain high-quality manageyoung investors ment is an important indicator. He also starting out to suggested focusing on potential conflicts of think and act interest, providing the example of the Rigas globally, remain family ownership of cable systems outside generalists, and of the holdings of AdelDean Glenn Hubbard and Professor phia as a situation that to concentrate Bruce Greenwald raises a red flag. Clearly Russo absorbed both their portfolios. lessons. Not only is his invest- Russo advised young investors ment style characterized by a starting out to think and act long-time horizon and low globally, remain generalists, and portfolio turnover, he has also to concentrate their portfolios. taken positions in several fam- He also told the audience of ily-run businesses over the students, alumni and other years. He observed that fam- investors to stay mindful of the ily-run businesses didnt seem fact that, even for value investo get the same valuation as tors, growth is required for Walter Schloss and Ben Grasimilar franchises, yet reasoned good returns. ham Jr. at this years Graham that family-run businesses The Graham & Dodd breakfast, and Dodd Breakfast might actually be less prone to a long standing tradition at the engage in foolish behavior. school attracted over 300 inRusso felt that if a family was vestors in New York and was truly focused on running the telecast to London to an audibusiness to maximize long-term ence of about 50 people, gains that they would be less hosted by GAMCO Investors apt to grant large option grants at the Dorchester Hotel. that would dilute their equity,
-G&Dville
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Just read the research: Were changing the buy to a sell because were expecting the quarter to be weak. Theres a lot of that going on out there. People are overly sensitive to short-term results.
If youre running a business where if you have a bad year half of your business will go away, youd be very focused on the short-term, even if youre a long-term oriented kind of person. Its hard not to be. Better to run a business where you promise your clients youre going to have bad years, which is what we do, we promise them. If they ever ask us, What about investing in value traps
Columbia Business School is a leading resource for investment management professionals and the only Ivy League business school in New York City. The School, where value investing originated, is consistently ranked among the top programs for finance in the world.
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My favorite story is I sat down across the table from somebody who said to me, My grandmothers a better investor than you. This is very easy. She gets it, you dont. All you have to do is buy Cisco. How come you wont buy Cisco? How does my grandmother know this, and not you?
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Edwin Schloss
and
Walter
Columbia Business School would like to wish longtime friend Walter Schloss a Happy 90th Birthday. Walter, a former colleague of Benjamin Graham, was recently honored by New York Society of Securities Analysts. Visit the public section of the Schloss Archives for Value Investing to read the 2003 Bottom Line interview with Walter and Edwin Schloss by Eli Rabinowich (04).
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Quest Diagnostics Inc. (DGX - NYSE) Price: 52 Week Range: 52.26 (12/16/06) 48.09 64.69 Market Cap: Sector: 9.99 billion Healthcare
We have that ranking system, in large cap theres 500 stocks, and if it gets ranked 250 or below we have to sell it. Period. That discipline is so important, because otherwise the emotions rule and you say, I think Im going to ride this for another week because its got great momentum, I love the management team, this guy from Goldman Sachs is about to publish a positive report. This is the kind of stuff that goes on in peoples head, and we just take that out of the process. So once its at fair value, ranked 250 out of 500, its a sell. And well start to trim it as it gets close to that if we have something more attractive to put the money into. Because if youve got all your money invested and you come up with another idea, you have to sell something. So we sell whatever is getting close to that fair value point.
And the same thing is true when you blow it. We use the same ranking system, but instead of the stock price going up to get to a higher P/E ratio we cut the earnings estimates and decide we just got this wrong. Tenet didnt have $2/ share of earnings power, it had $1/share of earnings power, so at $15 we thought it was cheap but now we think its fully priced, so we got out. Question: Can you discuss the best investment youve made in your career, and whether you realized the upside potential at the time you made it? Pzena: The best in terms of percentage terms was one where I didnt realize the upside. But I think the best and the worst are rare. For me, making 10 times my money is rare, and losing all of my
(Continued on page 11)
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I offer this advice whether youre going into i n v e s t m e n t management or not. Find something that you really like doing because, if youre forcing yourself to go into something that youre really not turned on by then its not going to work, even if you get paid a lot of money or its prestigious.
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International Coal Grp (ICO - NYSE) Price: S/O: Market Cap: Net Debt: 4.20 152m $642m $108m
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An important element in this valuation is that the company has the second longest reserve life in the industry, is transitioning towards higher priced met coal, has no significant pension and union liabilities, and has several potential mines and opportunities for production growth. The company, behind the backing of WL Ross has committed to invest approximately $850m (following the Q3 call this was scaled back down to $665m) in capex over the next four years, which is greater than the entire current market capitalization of the company. With WL Ross (owns 16% of the s/o) as chairman I believe this capex adds a free call value in the sense that given his financial acumen investors can have confidence that the present value of these projects are greater than repurchasing shares at this level (and thus creating opportunities for current investors). Risks As with any commodity product, the risk is in future coal pricing and concurrently the high raw material costs (such as diesel fuel, excavation equipment) that have compressed margins this past summer. Furthermore, the company has significant unpriced production (45% compared to peers between 20%) for 2007, and a concentrated customer base (with 65% of production going to the top five customers). As well, the company has had production problems including the tragedy at the Sago mine in January (determined to be due to natural causes which cost the company $15m), and the fire at the Vindex mine in Illinois. Lastly, from a financial markets perspective Wall Street has no faith in current management due to the consecutive downgrades in future guidance. As WL Ross is the chairman and current equity prices are near his purchase price, I believe he will provide appropriate stewardship to realize significant capital appreciation for shareholders. Summary At current prices, ICO offers investors a significant margin of safety based on the value of its reserve base, which I estimate to be worth at least $6.50/share. Looking forward, I think that the delta of production growth will be on the upside, as the company spends $650m in capex to build out its existing reserve base and transitions towards producing higher priced met coal (the company estimates 2010 production to be about 4m tons of met coal compared to 100K in 2006). As the company executes its production plan I believe it is reasonable to project 2008 EBITDA at 228m, which represents a current valuation of 3.3x EV/EBITDA. The catalyst going forward to recognize this value is twofold: first is simple execution, as Wall Street regains confidence in the company and quality of its reserves the equity should be valued in line with peers. Secondly, with the Beckley and Tagart mines producing, tons sold per year should increase substantially from 17m to 20m and 23m, which will more than double EBITDA. Q3 Follow-Up Following the third quarter earnings report, ICO equity increased to approximately $5/share as the company was able to meet EBITDA estimates and boost fourth quarter guidance by 5m. Furthermore, the company announced reduced capex plans for the next four years from approximately $850 to $650m by deferring investments in some higher cost mines. My sense is that investors simply rewarded the company for meeting their target and applauded the companys prudence in investing in higher margin projects going forward. Lastly, natural gas prices have moved upwards in the past two months (from the mid
Eastern Coal Producers Reserves
Price $ 21.7 Market Cap Enterprise Value $ 1,781. $ 2,608.
NAPP
At current prices, ICO offers investors a significant margin of safety based on the value of its reserve base, which I estimate to be worth at least $6.50/share.
Company Massey
Alpha Natural ReJames River Coal
0 19 0
CAPP 100
Other
Total
0 0 25
2,25 49 24
2007 47 37 8 0 16
EV/EBITDA 5.5x
$ $
15.3 13.1
$ $
1,059. 394.
$ $
1,539. 660.
81 75
4.1x 8.3x
International
4.2
641.
750.
60
32
8 WAV
91
0.82x $ 1.85x
4.5x 5.3x
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BUY at $42
Price:
$46.69
Summary Thesis Strattec Security Corp. (STRT) is a great business in an out of favor industry. Concerns over declining sales; dependence on the big 3 U.S. auto manufacturers; bankruptcy of an important customer; increasing raw materials cost; and unfavorable industry dynamics have driven down the stock price, creating an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors. STRT is trading at less than 7x depressed LTM operating income and at 1.4x tangible book value. In very difficult times, STRT is still quite profitable (LTM EPS equals ~70% of peak earnings); generates $15-$20 mm in cash per year (12% LTM FCF yield); and produces high returns on capital (32% ROTC and 20% ROIC, LTM). The Company has a solid balance sheet with no debt and $64 mm in cash (~40% of current market cap). There is a clear turnaround strategy, which is starting to present results. STRT has repurchased 49% of issued shares and patient investors will be rewarded once the business recovers. Should my conservative assumptions materialize, and STRT continue to use its cash wisely, the stock could trade or $58 three years from now, yielding a 12% annual return. Background STRT was spun off from Briggs & Stratton in 1995. Its traditional products are mechanical and electronic locks and keys for cars and light trucks. STRT also produces ignition lock housings (mating part for ignition locks and typically part of the steering column), and markets latches made by Witte, a German parts supplier. These latches are used in several car parts: trunk, liftgate, tailgate, hood and side doors. The Companys main customers are DaimlerChrysler (32% of FY 2006 sales), GM (18%), Ford (15%), and Delphi (15%). Export sales (primarily to auto manufacturing plants in Canada and Mexico) represent ~20% of total revenues. STRT has been one of the worlds largest producers of automotive locks and keys since the late 1920s, and currently has a 46% share of the North American market. In FY 2006, STRT supplied 93% of DaimlerChryslers production, 52% of GMs and 66% of Fords. Direct competitors include Huf North America, Ushin-Ortech, Tokai-Rika, Alpha-Tech Valeo, Methode, Shin Chang, and Pollak. STRTs main manufacturing facility and headquarters is located in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Finishing and assembly take place at the Companys other two plants, located in Juarez, Mexico. Detailed Thesis The key issues are: 1) Will STRT be able to replace lost revenues and sustain current businesses? 2) Can the Company adjust prices to offset increases in raw materials cost? 3) What is STRT going to do with the cash? These are my answers: 1) JVs, new products, new contracts, and geographical diversification can offset the two causes of revenue decline: Big 3 market share losses; and de-contenting (lower number of locks per car) VAST China can generate ~$18 mm in additional revenue: STRT teamed up with Witte and ADAC Plastics to create VAST (Vehicle Access Systems Technology). This partnership is the only true global one-stop shop for lock products (Ushin and Methode do not have a presence in Latin America; Tokai does not offer latches nor handles). Automakers are looking increasingly to buy parts from fewer, larger suppliers that are capable of shipping components to factories anywhere in the world. The alliance enables companies to bundle together locks and keys made by Strattec, latches made by Witte, door handles made by ADAC and a keyless entry system developed by STRT and Witte. The partnership can support global automakers from 11 locations around the world. Strattec and Witte each own a 40% stake in the alliance, while ADAC holds the remaining 20%. See pages 10 and 11 of STRTs 2006 annual report for details on the partnerships structure. VAST JVs in China yielded ~$12 mm of business in 2006 (year-to-date) with Volkswagen, GM and Ford. Management expects VAST China sales to exceed $30 mm by 2009.
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Jean Marie Evilliard and Walter Schloss are among the legendary investors who attend the Heilbrunn Centers Annual Graham and Dodd Breakfast (above)
The Value Investing Program at Columbia gives second year MBA students the opportunity to interact with the worlds top investors such as Mario Gabelli (67) (right)
For additional information contact: Ahmar Ahmad (AAhmad07@gsb.columbia.edu) or Andrew Ewert (AEwert07@gsb.columbia.edu) For the most recent agenda and updated information please visit our website at:
www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/cima/ (click on 2007 Columbia Investment Management Conference)
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Value $56,914,515 $48,779,510 $41,643,308 $35,433,432 $34,400,173 $28,344,050 $26,560,749 $22,680,567 $18,771,246
Last $71.29 $41.71 $20.62 $88.77 $44.85 $50.30 $34.49 $73.71 $49.62
Top Sells Company BECKMAN COULTER INC COM TELKOM PT ADR RPRSNTNG 20 LG PHILIP LCD CO LTD ADR FANNIE MAE COM STK PHILIPPINE LONG DIST TEL C CAREMARK RX COMMON STOCK THE TIMBERLAND COMPANY BALL CORP COM
52 week Hi Lo $62.14 $49.73 $42.26 $20.46 $24.49 $14.67 $62.37 $46.17 $51.90 $31.54 $59.89 $42.40 $37.61 $24.80 $45.00 $34.16
Top Holdings Company RENAISSANCERE HOLDIN GS LTD JOHNSON & JOHNSON COM TELEFONOS DE MEXICO SA NIKE INC CL B COM ST MOBILE TELESYSTEMS SP ADR WELLPOINT HEALTH NET WORKS INGERSOLL RAND CO-A INTL BUSINESS MACHS COM MERCK & CO INC COM STK DAVITA INC COM STK
Shares 2,944,485 2,069,386 4,791,278 1,258,115 2,624,621 INC 1,493,433 2,805,540 1,074,154 2,039,217 1,602,518
Value $165,421,168 $138,669,560 $126,106,435 $121,206,794 $115,220,866 $107,586,915 $107,508,292 $100,164,861 $90,887,901 $84,869,352
Last $56.18 $67.01 $26.32 $96.34 $43.90 $72.04 $38.32 $93.25 $44.57 $52.96
52 week Hi Lo $57.71 $40.56 $69.41 $56.65 $27.52 $17.61 $96.49 $75.52 $45.18 $26.00 $80.39 $65.49 $49.00 $34.95 $94.05 $72.73 $46.37 $27.99 $60.70 $46.70
Share Change 939,720 349,418 939,720 700,765 88,435 112,833 311,848 650,954 154,033 164,028
Data obtained from SEC Form 13F filed for period ending 6/30/06 Pricing Information as of 11/21/06
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52 week Shares 740,000 1,200,000 Value $18,433,400 $0 Last $24.91 Hi $48.88 Lo $21.93
Top Sells Company Shares APPLICA INC 655,200 STANDARD MICROSYSTEMS CORP 236,269 MEDICAL PPTYS TRUST INC 1,418,200 Top Holdings Company Shares FREESCALE SEMI CLB 11,130,350 FREESCALE SEM CL A 9,830,409 AMERIPRISE FINL INC 6,400,000 MICROSOFT CORP 8,900,000 M D C HLDGS INC 4,221,550 MI DEVS INC 4,730,000 HOSPIRA INC 5,971,200 WASHINGTON GROUP INTL INC 2,762,000 NEW CENTURY FINANCIAL 3,494,700 CF INDS HLDGS INC 5,137,400 D R HORTON INC 3,000,000 AMERICAN HOME MTG INVT CORP 1,920,000 FLAMEL TECHNOLOGIES SA 1,547,045 GENWORTH FINL INC 2,576,900 MERCER INTL INC 1,894,830 FIELDSTONE INVT CORP 2,402,250 INTERNATIONAL COAL GRP INC N 2,668,361
Data obtained from SEC Form 13F filed for period ending 9/30/06 Pricing Information as of 11/21/06
52 week Hi Lo $5.95 $1.24 $34.97 $20.36 $15.25 $8.75 Change (shares) -3,383,191 3,301,791 -750,000 0 -208,450 0 879,400 0 0 0 1,000,000 0 0 -200,000 0 0 0
Value $443,210,534 $391,545,208 $346,687,988 $266,020,995 $228,343,640 $200,788,500 $192,451,773 $161,245,563 $127,906,015 $116,207,992 $73,980,000 $67,680,000 $44,570,366 $25,872,076 $20,521,009 $13,260,420 $12,674,715
Last $39.82 $39.83 $54.17 $29.89 $54.09 $42.45 $32.23 $58.38 $36.60 $22.62 $24.66 $35.25 $28.81 $10.04 $10.83 $5.52 $4.75
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Top Sells Company CIA VALE DO RIO DOCE-ADR 11,158,000 COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS CRP 619,846 COPART INC 1,250,520 FIRST DATA CORP 2,465,900 FORD 719,300 HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LTD 1,309,000 RESEARCH IN MOTION 2,342,351 VERTEX PHARMA 495,800 Top Holdings Company BROOKFIELD ASSET MGMT INC GOOGLE INC COMCAST CORP NEW QUALCOMM INC AMERICA MOVIL S A DE C V SCHLUMBERGER LTD SLM CORP APPLE COMPUTER INC ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
Value $630,648,696 $553,539,649 $479,879,309 $427,290,142 $419,739,401 $365,148,512 $299,643,305 $321,952,545 $298,841,531
Last $54.23 $495.05 $40.79 $37.15 $45.08 $63.25 $47.20 $86.47 $37.95
Data obtained from SEC Form 13F filed for period ending 9/30/06 Pricing Information as of 11/21/06
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Additional Upcoming Events (see website for updated dates and times) January Distressed Investing Panel Hedge Fund Panel Party to welcome incoming J-Term students February Mutual Fund Panel Private Wealth Management Panel VP Elections
March
Semester In Review 9/12/06: CIMA Kick Off for 2006 2007 First year students were introduced to the many opportunities of being a CIMA member 9/14/06: Panel Discussion: An Overview of Various Hedge Fund Strategies. Jonathon Fox (03) of Lehman Brothers, David Lichtman (01) of SAC Capital and David Schwartz (05) of Argonaut Capital Management, and Jason Jones who is starting his own firm shared their thoughts on current hedge fund strategies and answered questions from CIMA members. Stock Pitch 101 Second year students Ahmar Ahmad (07) and Matthew Robinson (07) helped eager first years to get an early start on preparing their stock pitches. Mutual Fund Panel Sott Winters (05) an analyst with Oppenheimer Capital, Kathryn Mak (05) an analyst with UBS Global Asset Management and Milu Komer a vice president with Lehman Brothers Investment Management shared their thoughts and answered questions about the industry as well as how to be successful in the recruiting process. 16th Annual Graham and Dodd Breakfast Featuring Thomas A. Russo, Partner, Gardner, Russo & Gardner Golf Outing CIMA teamed up with the CBS Golf Club to enjoy a round at Great George Country Club Fidelity Investments Stock Game Sammy Simnegar (98), Ben Hesse (05) and Vincent Montemaggiore (05) flew in from Boston to guide and challenge CIMA members in preparing a stock pitch. Mutual Fund Trek Twelve members of CIMA traveled to Boston together. Organized by Matt Loesch (08), the group spent the morning with investment professionals from Wellington Management (including Jeffrey Kripke (95)), and met with investment professionals from Fidelity Investments (including Peter Saperstone (95), and Sammy Simnegar (98)) in the afternoon. Stock Pitch 201 Gregory Monahan (05), Vice President of Crescendo Partners gave first year students more advice on preparing stock pitches. Distressed Investing Panel Marc Sole, Head of Distressed Research at D. E. Shaw, Robert Stark, Partner in the bankruptcy practice at Brown Rudnick Berlack Israels LLP, Dan Krueger (02), Adjunct Professor Seminar Distressed Value Investing and Head of Distressed debt at Owl Creek Asset Management, Steven R. Strom, Managing Director of Recapitalization and Restructuring Group, Jefferies & Company shared their views on the distressed markets.
10/10/06:
10/12/06:
10/27/06
10/27/06
11/2/06
11/3/06
11/7/06
11/9/06
Get Involved:
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