Overview of U.S.

NRC PRA Research Activities

Kevin Coyne
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Branch Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

13th Annual Meeting of WGRisk March 7-9, 2012

Presentation Outline Overview of Key Research Projects Emerging Focus Areas p Fukushima Response Recent Publications

Overall PRA Research Goals

Support the reactor oversight and operating experience programs. Using risk-informed approaches to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of regulation. Expand PRA infrastructure to encompass new and advanced reactor concepts and designs. Support continuous advancement in PRA stateof-the-art and state-of-practice.

Supporting Reactor Oversight SPAR Focus Areas in the Coming Year

Other hazard and NFPA-805 fire models. Support system initiating events. Integrated capabilities model. g p
One SPAR model with all modes/hazards/levels that SPAR currently covers.

Confirmatory success criteria analysis

4-loop Westinghouse plant.

Resolution of ASME peer review findings and observations.

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Supporting Reactor Oversight (cont.) Common-Cause Failures (CCF) in Event Assessment

Draft NUREG-XXXX, Common-Cause Failure Analysis in Event and Condition Assessment: Guidance and Research issued for comment Research, (ML111890290). Topics treated in the NUREG include:
Treatment of CCF potential conditioned upon an observed component failure. Limitations of current CCF modeling and issues with alpha-factor estimates. Future research needed for data collection, parameter estimation and casual models.
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Improving Effectiveness: PRA Standards

PRA standards under development:
Level 1 (CDF) and LERF for low power and shutdown conditions addressing both internal and external hazards for operating LWRs. Level 1 (CDF) and LERF for at-power conditions addressing both internal and external hazards for LWRs in design stage (pre-operational). Level 2 for at-power conditions addressing both internal and external hazards for operating and advanced LWRs. Level 3 for all operating modes, all hazards, and both light water and non-light water reactors. Level 1 and Level 2 for all operating modes addressing both internal and external hazards for non-light water reactors.
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Improving Effectiveness: PRA Standards (cont.)

NEI has develop/developing peer review guidance
NEI 00-02/NEI 05-04 addresses Level 1/LERF for at-power conditions for operating LWRs for internal events and internal flood. NEI 07-12 address Level 1/LERF for at-power conditions for operating LWRs for internal fires. p g NEI developing guidance for seismic PRA for Level 1/LERF for at-power conditions.

PRA Standards and peer review guidance endorsed in RG 1.200.

NRC issuing Interim Staff Guidance documents providing interim staff endorsement on updates to the standard until next revision.
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Improving Effectiveness: Fire Research

Fire PRA and HRA
NFPA-805 Support - NRC/EPRI Training (2 classes/year):
July 1620, 2012 (Washington DC Area). September 2428, 2012 (Washington DC Area).

NUREG-1921, Fire HRA, Summer 2012.

Fire Modeling
NUREG-1934, N l NUREG 1934 Nuclear Power Plant Fire Modeling Application G id S P Pl t Fi M d li A li ti Guide, Summer 2012 2012.

Fire and Electrical Systems Circuit Analysis

NUREG/CR-7100, Direct Current Electrical Shorting in Response to Exposure Fire (DESIREE-Fire): Test Results, Summer 2012. Electrical Circuit Phenomena PIRT in progress.

Fire Testing
NUREG/CR-7115, Performance of Metal and Polymeric O-Ring Seals in Beyond-DesignBasis Temperature Excursions, in publication; expected in April. NUREG/CR-7010, Cable Heat Release, Ignition, and Spread in Tray Installations During Fire (CHRISTIFIRE), Spring 2012. 8

Emerging Focus Areas

Investigate risk-informed Emergency Action Levels (NUREG Report under development). Support spent fuel pool limited-scope consequence study. Continued work in dynamic event tree Level 1 and Level 2 PRA. Evaluating options for more holistic riskinformed, performance-based regulatory approach (February 11, 2011 Tasking Memo).
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Spent Fuel Pool Scoping Study

Focus: reexamination of the potential advantages associated with moving older fuel stored in the SFP to dry cask storage in an expedited manner.
Emphasis is given to acquiring timely results for ongoing deliberations and external stakeholder interest. The project is using:
Available information/methods. A representative operating cycle for a BWR Mark I. Past studies to narrow scope.

Plan finalized in July 2011. Study to be completed by Summer 2012.

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Site Level 3 PRA

Commission directed the staff to perform a fullscope comprehensive site Level 3 PRA for an operating plant.
Staff engaged nuclear industry; Vogtle, Units 1 and 2, volunteered for study (4-Loop Westinghouse PWR).

Objectives:
Reflect technical advances in PRA modeling and improvements in plant operations, safety, and security. Enhance PRA scope and capability. Extract new insights to enhance regulatory decision-making. Evaluate feasibility and cost of Level 3 PRAs.

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Site Level 3 PRA (cont.)

In general, based on current state of practice. Scope includes main site radiological sources, all internal and external initiating events, and all modes of operation. Th study will b f a single multi-unit site (V tl The t d ill be for i l lti it it (Vogtle, Units 1 and 2). Study to be completed over a 4-year period. Currently developing project plans, securing contractor support, collecting and assessing information on current state-of-practice.
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Fukushima Follow-Up: Key Documents

SECY-11-0093 (July 12th) and SRM (August 19th), Near-Term Report and Recommendations for Agency Actions Following the Events in Japan. SECY-11-0117 (August 26th) and SRM (October 19th) Proposed Charter for the Longer-Term Review of Lessons Learned from the March 11, 2011, Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami. SECY-11-0124 (S SECY 11 0124 (September 9th) and SRM (October 18 h) b 9 h) d (O b 18th), Recommended Actions to be Taken Without Delay from the Near-Term Task Force Report a.k.a. the 21 day paper. SECY-11-0137, October 3rd, Prioritization of Recommended Actions to be Taken in Response to Fukushima Lessons Learned a.k.a. the 45 day paper. SECY-12-0025, Proposed Orders and Requests for Information in Response to Lessons Learned from Japan's March 11, 2011, Great Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami.
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Fukushima Follow-Up
SECY-11-0137 contains staffs prioritization of the NTTF recommendations.
Tier 1 Start without delay. Tier 2 Start in the near term. Tier 3 Longer term actions.

SECY-12-0025 contains draft orders and response to previous Fukushima items.

Draft orders on Mitigating Strategies for Beyond-Design-Basis External Events, Hardened and Filtered Vents (Mark I and II BWRs), and Spent Fuel Pool Instrumentation. Draft 50.54(f) letter - External Hazards Reevaluation.

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Recently-Issued Reports NRC Staff Reports

NUREG-1935, State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) Report, Draft for Comment (comment period ended March 1, 2012). NUREG 1953 Confirmatory Thermal-Hydraulic NUREG-1953, Confirmatory Thermal Hydraulic Analysis to Support Specific Success Criteria in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk ModelsSurry and Peach Bottom, September 2011. NUREG-2115, Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities, January 2012.
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Recently-Issued Reports (cont.) NRC Contractor Reports

NUREG/CR-7004, Technical Basis for Regulatory Guidance on Design-Basis Hurricane-Borne Missile Speeds for Nuclear Power Plants, November 2011. NUREG/CR-7005, Technical Basis for Regulatory Guidance on Design-Basis Hurricane Wind Speeds for Nuclear Power Plants, November 2011. NUREG/CR 7110 State of the Art Reactor Consequence Analyses Project NUREG/CR-7110, State-of-the-Art Conseq ence Anal ses Project, January 2012. NUREG/CR-7114, Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA, Draft for Comment (comment period ended March 1, 2012). NUREG/CR-7039, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Version 8: Technical Reference, June 2011. NUREG/CR-7046, Design-Basis Flood Estimation for Site Characterization at Nuclear Power Plants in the United States of America, November 2011.

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Recently Issued Regulatory Guides

RG 1.174, An Approach For Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment In Risk-Informed Decisions On Plant Specific Changes To The Licensing Basis, May 2011. RG 1.177, An Approach For Plant-specific, Risk-informed Decision-Making: Technical Specifications, May 2011. RG 1.221, Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants, October 2011. DG-1278, proposed Revision 3 to RG 1.160, Monitoring the Effectiveness of Maintenance at Nuclear Power Plants, issued in September 2011, comment period closed, soon to be issued as final.

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