Market Outlook 14th May 2012

Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Dealers Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open flat to positive tracking mixed opening
in Asian markets. Most of the Asian markets fell for third consecutive session on
Friday as Chinese industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment
confirmed bearing expectations about demand outlook. Also, JPMorgans warning
of US$2bn trading loss fueled risk aversion.
Domestic Indices
U.S markets mostly fell on Friday to a second weekly decline as a rise in consumer
sentiment failed to outweigh JPMorgan Chase & Co.s US$2 billion trading loss.
Also, in Greece lawmakers struggled to form a coalition government and appear
poised for a new round of elections. The negative sentiment was partly offset by a
report from Reuters and University of Michigan showing that their consumer
sentiment index for May rose to 77.8 from the final April reading of 76.4.
Meanwhile, Indian markets extended losses for a fourth consecutive session on
Friday after government data showed the nation's IIP unexpectedly contracted in
March, with production shrinking 3.5%. Markets would now watch out for domestic
inflation data for March 2012 (Bloomberg estimate 6.7%) to be released today.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,325 / 4,937 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,416 16,538 / 4,968 5,007 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,325 / 4,937 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,202 16,111 / 4,898 4,867 levels.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.8) (127.1) 16,293
Nifty
(0.7)
(36.8)
4,929
MID CAP
(0.8)
(49.6)
5,949
SMALL CAP
(0.9)
(58.8)
6,395
BSE HC
(2.0) (132.4)
6,574
BSE PSU
(1.0)
6,711
BANKEX
0.0
AUTO
0.6
(68.5)
1.9 10,836
56.8
9,779
METAL
(1.2) (120.1) 10,107
OIL & GAS
(0.5)
(37.2)
7,548
BSE IT
(1.1)
(58.3)
5,482
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Dow Jones
Chg (%)
(0.3)
(34.4) 12,821
NASDAQ
0.0
0.2
2,934
FTSE
0.6
31.6
5,576
Nikkei
(0.6)
(56.3)
8,953
Hang Seng
(1.3) (262.7) 19,965
Straits Times
(0.6)
(16.6)
2,886
Shanghai Com
(0.6)
(15.3)
2,395
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
$43.7
Indian ADRs
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
INFY
(1.6)
(0.7)
SENSEX
16,111
16,202
16,325
16,416
16,538
WIT
(1.1)
(0.1)
$9.1
NIFTY
4,867
4,898
4,937
4,968
5,007
IBN
(0.2)
(0.1)
$30.7
HDB
(1.2)
(0.4)
$31.2
News Analysis
IIP shrinks in March by 3.5%

4QFY2012 Result Reviews Dr. Reddys Lab, Bhushan Steel, Indian Bank,
Federal Bank, Thermax, JSW Ispat, Graphite India, Goodyear India, CCCL
4QFY2012 Result Previews L&T, JSW Steel, Ashok Leyland, IVRCL, Orchid
Chemicals
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
919
427
1,850
1,010
110
70
Declines
Unchanged
Net Inflows (May 10, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
1,933
1,591
342
(129)
43,332
BSE
1,924
(474)
(6,575)
NSE
9,264
MFs
FII Derivatives (May 11, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,452
1,831
(379)
10,951
Stock Futures
1,269
1,318
(49)
20,767
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Manappuram Finance
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
23
14.4
IRB Infra
105
(13.4)
1,131
7.7
Indian Bank
180
(8.5)
63
4.1
India Cements
79
(6.0)
Bajaj Auto
1,555
3.5
JSW Ispat
10
(5.7)
Bata India
853
3.0
JSW Steel
627
(5.2)
Jubliant Foodworks
Jaiprakash Asso
www.angelbroking.com
Volumes (` cr)
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
IIP shrinks in March by 3.5%

Industrial production (IIP) growth contracted in March, declining by 3.5% yoy, well
below Bloomberg consensus estimates of 1.7% yoy growth. The 12-month rolling
industrial production growth, which has been on a declining trend since November
2010 (9.9%), slipped further to 2.8% yoy.
Manufacturing index, which has witnessed continued sluggish growth over the last
year, contracted by 4.4% in March. Only 10 out of 22 industry groups in the
manufacturing sector registered above zero growth during March 2012. Mining
activity index, which had recorded expansion for the first time in the last eight
months in February, contracted again by 1.3% in March. Growth in electricity
production, after reviving in February, again moderated down to 2.7% in March
2012
As per use-based data, capital goods index disappointed the most (contraction of
21.3%), followed by intermediate goods (contraction of 2.1%). Rest of the indices
could only achieve marginal growth, with basic goods witnessing the highest
growth at 1.1%.
Result Reviews
Dr. Reddys Lab (CMP: `1,662 / TP: - /Upside: -)
Dr. Reddys Lab (DRL) Lupin reported better than expected sales, while the net profit
came in below expectations. For the quarter, the company posted sales of
`2,658cr, a rise of 31.8% yoy. The growth on the sales front was lead by the US
and the Russian markets. The US markets grew by 36% yoy (in US$ terms), while
Russia, grew by 23% yoy in local currency. Indian markets also grew at an 11%
yoy. On the operating front, the Gross and Operating margins came in at 52.6%
and 22.7% respectively. On yoy the gross margins declined by 172bps, while the
OPMs expanded by 229bps, mainly on back of reduction in SG&A expenses.
However, a higher tax burden during the quarter lead the adj. net profit come in
`431cr, a yoy growth of 28.9%.We remain neutral on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
9,183
25.7
1,550
92.1
22.8 18.0
3.9
12.2
3.2
FY2014E
10,063
25.1
1,513
89.9
18.8 18.5
3.5
11.5
2.9
Bhushan Steel (CMP: `438 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Bhushan Steel reported its 4QFY2012 results. Net sales grew by 44.3% yoy to
`2,837cr which would be mainly on account of higher sales volumes in our view.
EBITDA increased 49.0% yoy to `898cr, representing EBITDA margin of 31.6%.
Depreciation expense increased 140.5% yoy to `166cr on account of increased
capacity, while interest expense increased 125.6% yoy to `299cr as it had
capitalized phase II. Consequently, net profit increased by 14.9% yoy to `331cr.
We recommend Neutral on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
9,182
30.8
850
40.0
11.6 10.9
1.2
10.4
3.8
FY2014E
13,487
31.1
1,244
58.6
14.9
1.0
7.1
3.0
7.5
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Indian Bank (CMP: `180 / TP: `218 / Upside: 21.6% )

Indian Bank reported a dismal performance for 4QFY2012, both on the
operational and asset-quality front. The bank reported a decline in its NII by 2.6%
yoy to `1,083cr. Non-interest income increased by 13.0% on a yoy basis to
`307cr. Operating expenses increased at a much higher pace of 23.5% yoy to
`592cr, which resulted in an 11.7% yoy decline in pre-provisioning profit to
`797cr. Net profit declined by 21.3% yoy to `345cr (despite being aided by
`110cr of negative tax expense for the quarter as against tax expense of `337cr in
4QFY2011), on the back of a substantial increase in provisioning expenses by
343.1% on a yoy basis to `562cr. The banks asset quality deteriorated
considerably during the quarter, with both gross and net NPA ratio increasing on a
sequential basis by 68bp and 53bp, respectively, and PCR declining by 637bp qoq
to 70.1%. At the CMP, the stock is trading at attractive valuation of 0.6x FY2014
ABV. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price
of `218.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
6,469
3.5
1,954
45.5
253.5
1.3
19.6 4.0
0.7
FY2014E
7,244
3.3
2,099
48.8
291.3
1.2
18.2 3.7
0.6
Federal Bank (CMP: `414 / TP - / Upside: -)

For 4QFY2012, Federal Bank reported 38.4% yoy (17.7% qoq) growth in its net
profit to `238cr, in-line with our estimates. While the bank witnessed sequential
moderate growth in its operating income (10.7% qoq), lower provisioning
expenses (down by 80.5% qoq) propped up profitability growth to 38.4% qoq.
The banks asset quality improved during 4QFY2012 as well with absolute gross
and net NPAs decreasing by 4.6% and 18.3% sequentially, respectively. Gross
NPA ratio improved by 62bp qoq to 3.4%, while net NPA ratio improved by 21bp
to 0.5%.
At the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 1.0x FY2014E ABV. Considering
the deregulation of NRE FD rates (NRE deposits comprise ~12% of its total
deposits) and that mid-size PSU banks with similar earnings outlook are trading at
valuation of 0.5-0.7x, we remain Neutral on the stock.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
2,766
3.4
846
49.5
372.9
1.3
14.0 8.2
1.1
FY2014E
3,163
3.3
979
57.2
417.9
1.3
14.5 7.1
1.0
Thermax (CMP: `418/ TP: - / Upside: -)

Thermax announced a muted set of numbers for 4QFY2012, which were more or
less in-line with our estimates. The companys top line declined by 4.5% yoy to
`1,687cr (`1,767cr), which was 5.7% lower than our estimates. The decline in
total revenue was mainly on account of a 7.6% yoy dip in the energy segments
revenue, with the environment segment growing by 10%. The companys EBITDA
margin expanded by 39bp yoy to 11.0% on account of falling raw-material cost
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
(as a percentage of total income), which was partially able to offset the declining
revenue, with EBITDA coming at `185cr (`187cr). PAT for the quarter stood as at
`130cr, increasing by 2.6% yoy. Owing to the tough macro environment,
especially in the power sector, the companys order backlog declined by 25.1%
yoy to `4,828cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
5,473
8.6
536
30.4
20.5 13.8
2.6
8.1
0.7
FY2014E
5,497
8.2
506
28.7
16.9 14.7
2.3
7.8
0.6
JSW Ispat
JSW Ispat, an associate of JSW Steel, reported its 4QFY2012 results. JSW Ispats
net sales grew by 6.1% yoy to `2,783cr in 4QFY2012. However, the companys
EBITDA declined by 40.7% yoy to `195cr mainly due to higher costs and technical
problems in its blast furnace operations. Further, it reported PAT loss of `141cr,
compared to a PAT of `70cr in 4QFY2011 due to higher interest. We maintain our
Neutral rating on JSW Steel.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
39,161
17.8
1,736
72.1
10.1
9.9
0.9
4.0
0.7
FY2014E
43,958
17.9
2,162
89.5
11.4
8.0
0.8
3.6
0.6
Graphite India- 1QCY2012 (CMP: `93 / TP: `124 / Upside: 34%)

GIL reported strong sales growth in 4QFY2012. The companys revenue increased
by 48.6% yoy to `452cr. The graphite segment, which contributed around 85.3%
to the companys total revenue, registered strong growth of 52.9% yoy to `386cr,
while the steel segment managed a whopping 150% yoy increase to `24cr. The
companys OPM declined by 142bp yoy to 18.3% due to increased raw-material
cost, which grew to 51.2% as a percentage of sales in 4QFY2012 vs. 50.5% as a
percentage of sales in 4QFY2011. PAT increased by 131% yoy to `103cr, largely
due to forex gain of `30cr and other income of `22cr during the quarter. Adjusted
for other income and forex gain, PAT increased by 77.7% yoy. PAT margin also
expanded significantly by 813bp yoy to 22.8% due to the above reason and priorperiod tax adjustments resulting in lower tax rate. Tax rate declined to 12.5% of
PBT in 4QFY2012 vs. 29.3% of PBT in 4QFY2011. We maintain our Buy view on
the stock with a target price of `124.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
FY2013E
2,158
18.1
243
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
12.4
14.0
7.5
1.0
5.1
FY2014E
2,406
18.9
274
14.0
0.9
14.3
6.6
0.9
4.0
0.8
Goodyear India (CMP: `332, TP: `372, Upside: 12%)

For 1QCY2012, Goodyear reported a disappointing set of numbers. The company
reported top line of `331cr, 13% below our estimates of `380cr and a decline of
1.6% yoy from `336cr in 1QCY2011 mainly due to suppressed demand for
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
tractors and muted growth in the passenger vehicles industry. The companys
EBITDA margin contracted by 125bp yoy to 6% during the quarter and PAT
declined by 21% yoy to `11cr. We expect the companys revenue to post a 7.5%
CAGR over CY2011-13E; however, its EBITDA margin is expected to expand by
116bp due to stability in rubber prices, thus leading to a PAT CAGR of 23.1% over
CY2011-13E. We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a target price
of `372.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
CY2012E
1,571
7.2
69
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
29.8
20.2 11.1
2.1
3.9
0.3
CY2013E
1,753
8.6
98
42.4
24.3
1.7
2.5
0.2
7.8
CCCL (CMP: `14 / TP: - / Upside: -)

CCCL posted a mixed set of numbers for the quarter. Revenue came in-line with
our expectations but the company gave a positive surprise at the EBITDA level,
which led to higher-than-expected profit for the quarter. The top line of the
company declined by 8.4% yoy to `589cr, against our estimate of `572cr.
However, the positive surprise came on the margin front, as the company posted
significantly higher-than-expected EBITDA margin of 9.5%, a jump of
600bp/490bp on a yoy/qoq basis, against our expectation of 4.4%. The main
reason for the improvement in margins was lower cost of material and
subcontracting charges as a percentage of sales. Interest cost came in at `29cr, a
jump of 142.8%/59.4% on a yoy/qoq basis. On the bottom-line front, the
company posted profit of `25cr in 4QFY2012 vs. `2cr in 4QFY2011 and against
our expectations of `1cr profit mainly on account of improvement in margin.
CCCL had an order inflow of `3,114cr during the year, taking its outstanding
order book to `5,916cr. Although, CCCL has reported better-than-expected
performance in this quarter, the company has disappointed on the earnings front
and posted erratic margins since the last few quarters. Hence, we maintain our
Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
2,526
34
1.8
5.6
7.6
0.4
5.6
0.3
FY2014E
2,792
52
2.8
8.2
4.9
0.4
5.0
0.3
Result Previews
L&T
We expect L&T to record revenue of `18,944cr, registering 23.1% yoy growth, for
4QFY2012. This growth can be attributed to the companys large order book
(~`1.4trillion). On the EBITDA front, we expect the companys margin to witness a
decline of 150bp yoy to 13.7%. We project the companys net profit to come in at
`1,862cr, reporting yoy growth of 10.4%. We believe the company would end the
quarter with a total order inflow of ~`26,000cr.
At the CMP of `1,139, the stock is trading at 14.9x FY2014E earnings and 2.1x
FY2014E P/BV, on a standalone basis. We have used the SOTP methodology to
value the company to capture all its business initiatives and investments/stakes in
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent business on a P/E basis
and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap basis, our target price
works out to `1,641. We recommend Buy on the stock.
JSW Steel
JSW Steel is slated to announce its standalone 4QFY2012 results. The companys
net revenue is expected to grow by 19.5% yoy to `8,406cr mainly on account of
increased sales volumes as well as realizations. However, operating margin is
expected to contract by 708bp yoy to 16.4% on account of higher costs of iron ore
and coking coal. Hence, net profit is expected to decrease by 48.1% yoy to
`432cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Ashok Leyland
Ashok Leyland (AL) is slated to announce its 4QFY2012 results. The companys top
line is expected to grow by healthy 12.3% yoy to `4,298cr, led by ~19% growth in
volumes. We expect net average realization to decline on account of higher
contribution from lower priced vehicle, Dost. On the operating front, EBITDA
margin is expected to witness a ~250bp yoy contraction to 10.8%. As a result, the
companys bottom line is expected to decline by 15% yoy to `253cr. The stock
rating is under review.
IVRCL
We expect IVRCL to post poor numbers for the quarter. On the revenue front,
IVRCL is expected to post a yoy decline of 18.0% to `1,682cr on the back of
slowdown in execution. On the EBITDA margin front, we expect a dip of 70bp yoy
to 8.0%. On the earnings front, we expect a decline of 56.6% yoy for the quarter
to `27.9cr, primarily on account of higher interest costs for the quarter. We
maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `79.
Orchid Chemicals
For the 4QFY2012, Orchid chemicals is expected to post a net sales and profits of
around `528cr and `36.3cr. While the net sales are expected to be flat, while the
net profit is expected to dip by 43.1%. On the operating front, the margins are
expected to dip by 160bps to end the period at 24.5%. We maintain our buy on
the stock with a target price of `207.
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd - (14/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
680
421
62
588
16
EBITDA
464
310
50
411
13
EBITDA margin (%)
68.2
73.6
Net profit
318
228
69.9
39
273
16
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Ashok Leyland Ltd - (14/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
4,224
3,829
10
2,880
47
EBITDA
475
510
(7)
210
126
EBITDA margin (%)
11.2
13.3
Net profit
263
298
Net sales
7.3
(12)
67
293
JSW Steel Ltd - Consolidated (14/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
8,869
7,210
23
8,405
EBITDA
1,592
1,016
57
1,317
21
EBITDA margin (%)
18.0
14.1
Net profit
561
292
92
(48)
(1269)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
18,468
15,078
22
13,999
32
2,547
2,341
1,343
90
13.8
15.5
1,652
1,686
(2)
992
67
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
1,086
1,010
971
12
EBITDA
188
185
179
EBITDA margin (%)
17.3
18.3
Net profit
145
144
15.7
Larsen & Toubro Ltd - (14/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
9.6
Cummins India Ltd - (15/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
18.4
0
141
Unitech Ltd - Consolidated (15/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
611
1,054
(42)
514
19
EBITDA
135
168
(20)
107
26
EBITDA margin (%)
22.1
16.0
86
103
Net profit
20.9
(17)
Economic and Political News
Disappointing March IIP numbers, output falls by 3.5%

Government disburses `4.76lakh cr farm credit in FY2012
RBI expects mild recovery in economic growth for 2012-13
Corporate News
Ashok Leyland cuts vehicle prices by 1%

ONGC Videsh may buy 25% in South Atlantic sea block
SAIL inks pact with Mongolia to explore steel, mines space
TCS to manage Lakshmi Vilas Bank's back-office operations
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
55
55
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 15, 2012
Larsen & Toubro, Mundra Port, JSW Steel , Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas, Areva, Monnet Ispat, Orchid Chemicals,
IVRCL Infra, Abbott India
Cummins India, Unitech, Patel Engg., Dishman Pharma, JK Tyre
May 16, 2012
Blue Star, J K Lakshmi Cements
May 17, 2012
Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam
May 18, 2012
Coal India, St Bk of India, Tata Steel, HT Media
May 19, 2012
Force Motors
May 20, 2012
May 21, 2012
Adani Enterp., Adani Power, Nalco, Zee Entertainment, Tata Comm
May 22, 2012
Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn.
May 23, 2012
Rural Elec.Corp., Tata Global, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories
May 24, 2012
GSPL, TVS Motor, Madras Cements, Hitachi
May 25, 2012
NHPC, BPCL
May 26, 2012
May 27, 2012
May 28, 2012
Motherson Sumi, Britannia, Amara Raja Batteries, Subros
May 29, 2012
Tata Motors, GMR Infra., Aurobindo Pharma
May 14, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
May 14, 2012
India
May 15, 2012
US
Monthly Wholesale Prices

YoY%
Consumer price index (mom)
Euro Zone
Germany
Euro Zone
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
% Change
Mar-12
6.89
6.67
% Change
Mar-12
0.30
--
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
Dec-11
(0.30)
(0.20)
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
Dec-11
1.50
0.90
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Mar-12
2.70
2.60
US
Industrial Production
Mar-12
--
0.60
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Mar-12
654.00
685.00
US
Building permits
Thousands
Mar-12
764.00
728.00
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Mar-12
3.60
5.00
May 17, 2012
US
Thousands
05-May-12
367.00
365.00
May 22, 2012
Euro Zone
Value
Apr-12
(19.90)
--
UK
Initial Jobless claims

Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
3.50
--
May 16, 2012
US
Existing home sales
May 23, 2012
US
New home sales
Millions
Mar-12
4.48
4.60
Thousands
Mar-12
328.00
335.00
May 24, 2012
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Apr-12
52.20
--
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Apr-12
46.20
--
UK
GDP (YoY)
Mar-12
--
--
May 29, 2012
US
Consumer Confidence
Apr-12
69.20
70.00
May 31, 2012
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
% Change
S.A./
1985=100
Thousands
Apr-12
19.00
--
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
Mar-12
2.20
1.80
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
6.10
--
Market Strategy
May 14, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

(%)
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)
9.8
10.0
12.0
9.4
9.0
8.0
7.5
8.3
7.8
7.6
7.4
8.0
7.7
6.9
5.8
5.3
6.0
7.0
6.0
4.0
6.1
5.9
6.2
3.7
4.1
3.4
2.7
2.5
1.1
2.0
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Mar-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.0
56.0
6.9
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
48.0
Sep-11
0.0
Aug-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
May-11
52.0
Apr-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
Feb-12
(5.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
(%)
Jan-12
(3.5)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
12.0
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
3QFY09
(4.0)
May-11
(2.0)
5.0
Jun-11
Apr-11
6.0
9.5
10.0
8.5
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
4.00
Apr-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
125
2,430
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
17.9
15.6
3.8
3.2
22.8
22.3
1.7
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
119
183
5,497
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
7.0
6.5
1.1
1.0
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
297
345
2,540
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
10.1
9.1
2.4
1.9
26.5
23.6
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
83
100
4,171
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
6.8
6.2
1.2
1.1
19.7
18.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
27
37
7,131
15,008
16,906
9.5
9.5
2.6
3.1
10.4
8.7
2.2
1.9
15.5
17.0
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle
Neutral
496
749
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
9.9
8.7
2.5
2.0
27.8
25.7
0.7
0.6
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,555
1,811
45,002
21,966
24,774
19.8
19.0
111.7
120.7
13.9
12.9
5.4
4.3
43.1
37.1
1.6
1.4
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
324
372
7,548
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
14.5
12.2
2.8
2.4
21.0
21.0
1.1
1.0
Bosch India
Neutral
9,006
28,278
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.4
19.1
5.0
4.2
23.3
21.8
2.7
2.3
CEAT
Buy
98
164
336
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.5
2.4
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
121
146
10,315
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
17.1
13.6
3.0
2.6
18.6
20.3
1.4
1.2
FAG Bearings
Accumulate
1,501
1,594
2,495
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
12.7
11.3
2.8
2.3
24.0
21.9
1.4
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Buy
1,843
2,280
36,808
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
13.1
12.5
6.2
4.8
54.8
43.3
1.1
0.9
JK Tyre
Buy
77
113
318
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.1
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
655
802
40,225
35,095
40,213
10.7
10.5
44.6
48.7
14.7
13.5
2.6
2.3
18.8
18.1
0.8
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,234
1,510
35,652
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
14.3
12.3
2.0
1.8
15.3
15.5
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
169
216
6,547
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
14.9
11.8
3.2
2.7
23.3
24.7
0.7
0.6
Subros
Neutral
30
182
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.3
6.1
0.7
0.7
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Accumulate
297
328
80,047 191,183 213,150
12.6
12.6
38.7
42.9
7.7
6.9
2.7
2.1
39.8
33.9
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
35
55
1,682
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
7.1
6.4
1.3
1.1
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
721
503
15,276
8,926
10,220
7.7
7.5
18.6
20.9
38.7
34.4
5.3
4.7
14.5
14.5
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Reduce
295
274
2,128
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
10.9
9.7
1.8
1.6
17.3
17.4
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
221
54,129
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
9.4
9.2
1.9
1.6
21.3
18.9
1.0
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
184
221
1,654
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
14.8
11.7
3.0
2.6
21.2
23.8
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
117
164
7,515
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
10.8
10.0
1.9
1.6
18.4
17.3
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
39
67
320
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.6
2.9
0.4
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
52
73
1,333
6,686
7,200
7.7
7.9
10.6
12.2
4.9
4.3
0.9
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,544
2,609
1,739
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.3
7.1
1.7
1.5
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.1
Thermax
Neutral
420
5,007
5,473
5,497
10.1
9.8
30.4
28.7
13.8
14.7
2.6
2.3
20.5
16.9
0.8
0.7
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,168
21,922
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
16.5
14.4
2.9
2.6
18.0
19.0
1.7
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
144
22,106
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.2
13.6
2.8
2.5
18.5
19.4
1.8
1.5
India Cements
Neutral
79
2,434
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
8.0
6.3
0.7
0.6
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
61
79
746
1,880
2,201
19.0
22.6
12.2
16.4
5.0
3.7
0.6
0.5
11.9
14.3
0.6
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
145
3,440
3,434
3,777
25.5
26.1
14.1
18.1
10.2
8.0
1.5
1.3
15.2
16.9
1.6
1.4
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,671
9,305
5,552
6,193
25.7
26.0
130.3
182.0
20.5
14.7
4.2
3.6
19.1
22.3
1.4
1.0
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,363
37,365
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
16.6
14.0
2.6
2.3
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.7
193
302
1,016
2,014
2,294
22.4
22.4
28.4
30.8
6.8
6.3
0.9
0.8
14.1
13.3
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
259
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.6
4.9
0.4
0.4
5.6
8.2
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
19
1,137
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(10.5)
(24.0)
1.1
1.2
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
105
166
3,496
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
7.0
6.2
1.1
0.9
16.1
15.8
2.5
2.3
ITNL
Buy
165
265
3,199
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
7.5
6.2
1.1
0.9
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
51
79
1,366
5,758
6,860
9.2
9.2
4.7
6.0
10.9
8.5
0.6
0.6
6.0
7.3
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
63
104
13,365
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
15.0
12.5
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.7
2.1
1.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,139
1,641
69,743
60,258
69,900
12.1
11.5
70.7
76.3
16.1
14.9
2.4
2.1
16.1
15.2
1.3
1.1
Madhucon Proj
Buy
47
84
348
2,503
2,903
10.7
10.7
5.8
6.6
8.1
7.2
0.5
0.5
6.6
7.0
0.7
0.6
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
36
76
917
5,790
7,022
9.2
9.5
3.5
5.4
10.3
6.6
0.4
0.4
3.7
5.6
0.8
0.8
Patel Engg.
Neutral
92
641
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.6
6.3
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
45
1,494
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
15.5
9.9
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
132
199
1,991
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
13.0
11.7
2.1
1.8
17.6
16.3
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
211
316
1,044
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
7.8
6.0
0.8
0.7
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
148
166
7,400
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.9
3.5
0.7
0.6
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
105
5,859
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
4.7
4.1
0.7
0.6
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
1,001
1,587
41,437
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.6
7.2
1.6
1.4
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
649
925
25,415
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.1
4.3
0.9
0.7
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
318
411
18,226
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.2
4.5
0.9
0.7
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
48
55
2,854
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.2
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
419
522
18,562
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
5.0
4.5
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
78
5,723
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.6
3.8
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Buy
405
504
6,001
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.8
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Buy
85
111
2,967
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
3.6
3.3
0.6
0.5
17.7
17.0
Federal Bank
Neutral
415
7,100
2,766
3,163
3.4
3.3
49.5
57.2
8.4
7.3
1.1
1.0
14.0
14.5
HDFC
Neutral
646
95,438
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
20.4
17.0
4.1
3.6
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
511
567
119,945
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
18.1
14.4
3.5
2.9
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
813
1,201
93,430
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.0
10.0
1.4
1.3
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
92
117
11,761
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.6
3.9
0.6
0.6
13.8
14.9
Indian Bank
Buy
180
218
7,721
6,469
7,244
3.5
3.3
45.5
48.8
4.0
3.7
0.7
0.6
19.6
18.2
IOB
Buy
82
96
6,500
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
5.0
3.8
0.6
0.5
11.5
13.9
J & K Bank
Neutral
846
4,102
2,420
2,792
3.5
3.6
178.0
195.8
4.8
4.3
0.9
0.8
19.5
18.6
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
240
286
12,107
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
9.8
7.8
1.8
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
219
274
6,381
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.0
3.4
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
746
1,066
23,625
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
4.9
4.3
0.9
0.7
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
22
2,500
1,399
1,596
2.6
2.5
3.5
3.8
6.3
5.9
1.1
1.0
18.7
17.5
St Bk of India
Buy
1,852
2,511
124,291
69,568
81,445
3.7
3.7
220.9
269.8
8.4
6.9
1.4
1.2
18.9
19.1
Syndicate Bank
Buy
91
131
5,469
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.5
3.0
0.6
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
68
4,242
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.0
3.8
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
206
276
10,775
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.8
4.1
0.8
0.7
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
58
78
2,110
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.1
2.6
0.5
0.4
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
53
2,496
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.0
4.3
0.7
0.6
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
329
470
11,650
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.7
7.9
2.0
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,619
34,709
10,961
12,773
16.3
16.3
120.3
142.5
30.1
25.4
10.0
7.9
36.9
34.7
3.1
2.6
540
650
6,444
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
24.2
19.1
9.9
7.3
45.2
44.1
1.1
0.9
1,183
16,087
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
31.4
27.8
37.4
30.2
129.4
120.1
5.2
4.6
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
105
18,257
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
25.3
21.3
9.2
7.5
39.3
42.0
3.1
2.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,773
11,661
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
26.9
22.5
8.3
6.7
34.0
32.9
3.4
2.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
519
17,646
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
22.7
19.1
6.2
5.0
31.3
38.4
3.1
2.6
HUL
Neutral
431
93,150
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
30.5
26.3
22.8
17.8
82.7
76.2
3.5
3.0
ITC
Accumulate
234
252
182,795
28,955
33,595
35.9
35.7
9.2
10.5
25.5
22.3
8.2
6.7
34.8
33.1
6.0
5.2
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
178
10,967
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
26.8
21.9
7.2
5.6
30.0
28.8
2.4
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,545
43,816
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.1
30.7
23.3
15.9
73.0
61.6
5.1
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
108
136
6,707
7,011
7,712
9.7
10.0
6.0
7.1
18.2
15.2
1.7
1.6
8.9
10.2
0.9
0.8
HCL Tech
Accumulate
488
560
33,776
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
12.9
11.3
2.9
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.2
Hexaware
Neutral
119
3,529
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.1
11.1
2.8
2.4
23.7
22.5
1.7
1.4
Infosys
Buy
2,312
2,792
132,753
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
14.6
13.3
3.3
2.8
22.5
20.8
2.9
2.4
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
160
177
1,782
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.5
8.6
1.3
1.1
13.6
13.2
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Reduce
112
98
1,986
2,042
2,139
15.2
14.9
9.6
10.9
11.7
10.3
2.0
1.7
19.2
18.0
0.9
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
69
89
8,155
7,142
8,042
15.4
15.0
7.7
8.3
9.1
8.4
1.3
1.1
13.8
13.0
0.8
0.6
Mindtree
Neutral
581
2,356
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
10.8
9.9
2.0
1.7
18.9
17.0
0.9
0.7
Mphasis
Accumulate
386
433
8,112
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
10.0
9.4
1.5
1.3
14.9
13.7
0.9
0.8
NIIT
Buy
41
61
679
1,105
1,200
16.4
16.9
7.5
9.2
5.5
4.5
1.0
0.9
17.6
19.0
0.4
0.2
Persistent
Neutral
362
1,446
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.7
9.0
1.5
1.3
15.4
14.5
1.0
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,232
241,032
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.5
17.4
6.0
4.8
30.5
27.7
4.0
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
639
750
8,142
6,030
6,511
16.3
15.7
81.1
87.0
7.9
7.3
1.6
1.3
20.1
18.0
1.3
1.1
Wipro
Accumulate
401
430
98,547
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
16.0
14.0
3.0
2.6
18.6
18.3
2.0
1.7
D B Corp
Buy
195
274
3,575
1,656
1,869
26.0
26.8
14.0
16.1
14.0
12.1
3.2
2.7
24.8
24.1
2.1
1.8
HT Media
Buy
119
170
2,785
2,255
2,555
17.8
18.3
10.0
12.0
11.9
9.8
1.6
1.4
14.7
15.4
1.0
0.8
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
92
137
2,903
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
12.0
10.1
4.0
3.6
34.6
37.7
1.9
1.7
PVR
Neutral
148
383
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
11.9
9.4
1.9
2.0
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
295
11,635
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
14.2
12.3
3.3
2.8
26.0
25.1
4.4
3.6
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
438
9,299
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.1
7.5
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.2
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
314
351
198,618
65,654
71,756
26.8
27.3
24.0
26.3
13.1
11.9
3.6
2.9
30.4
27.0
2.0
1.7
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
20
27
678
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
7.3
6.0
0.4
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.5
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
119
139
50,260
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
8.0
7.2
1.6
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.1
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
114
21,730
84,652
88,766
9.6
10.5
17.0
18.9
6.7
6.0
0.6
0.6
9.7
9.8
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Accumulate
627
693
13,991
39,161
43,958
17.8
17.9
72.2
89.5
8.7
7.0
0.8
0.7
10.1
11.4
0.6
0.5
MOIL
Neutral
254
4,272
979
1,061
45.7
46.8
24.5
26.6
10.4
9.6
1.6
1.4
16.1
15.8
2.2
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Buy
464
585
2,986
2,986
3,908
22.1
28.9
50.5
83.4
9.2
5.6
1.1
0.9
13.5
19.2
1.9
1.3
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
58
51
14,871
8,276
8,578
12.7
16.4
2.5
3.5
22.8
16.5
1.3
1.2
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.3
169
185
66,825
11,726
12,890
77.8
78.4
18.6
20.6
9.1
8.2
2.2
1.8
26.1
23.8
3.5
3.0
SAIL
Accumulate
Sesa Goa
Buy
89
102
36,824
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
6.8
6.2
0.8
0.7
12.4
12.3
1.1
0.9
179
206
15,561
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.0
4.0
0.9
0.7
23.5
19.5
0.3
Sterlite Inds
Buy
95
123
31,959
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
5.8
5.0
0.6
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.3
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
412
503
39,990 141,358 142,265
11.1
13.7
45.8
58.9
9.0
7.0
0.9
0.8
10.0
11.7
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Buy
316
372
60,369
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.2
6.5
1.0
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.8
2.0
GAIL
Buy
319
392
40,401
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.0
8.6
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
255
319
217,866 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.2
7.6
1.5
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.1
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
697
872
228,334 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
10.6
10.0
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
52
91
975
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.8
5.7
1.9
1.5
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
109
175
3,179
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
7.9
7.4
0.9
0.4
11.4
10.9
0.9
0.8
Aventis*
Neutral
2,083
4,796
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
21.9
20.0
3.9
3.0
18.6
17.0
3.0
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
766
1,016
15,680
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.7
15.1
4.6
3.7
25.4
24.8
2.5
2.0
Cipla
Buy
319
380
25,605
7,006
8,164
20.0
21.2
17.0
19.0
18.8
16.8
3.4
2.9
16.8
18.2
3.7
3.1
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,662
28,163
9,183
10,063
25.7
25.1
92.1
89.9
18.0
18.5
3.9
3.4
22.8
18.8
3.2
2.9
Dishman Pharma
Buy
42
91
339
1,282
1,538
17.9
17.9
10.1
13.0
4.2
3.2
0.3
0.3
8.5
10.1
1.0
0.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,049
17,353
2,788
3,148
35.6
35.2
87.9
96.7
23.3
21.2
7.6
6.3
34.8
32.1
5.4
4.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
460
665
565
685
837
15.2
15.2
55.5
66.5
8.3
6.9
1.3
1.1
16.4
16.9
1.0
0.9
Ipca labs
Buy
358
443
4,501
2,907
3,541
21.5
21.5
32.7
40.6
10.9
8.8
2.8
2.2
27.8
27.7
1.7
1.4
Lupin
Buy
517
656
23,076
8,272
9,929
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.8
17.4
15.8
4.5
3.5
25.0
22.9
2.8
2.3
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
161
270
1,131
2,143
2,508
21.8
21.8
28.3
38.1
5.7
4.2
1.1
0.9
19.3
23.4
1.5
1.2
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
479
20,228
12,023
12,264
19.9
16.9
41.1
36.9
11.7
13.0
2.5
2.2
30.0
17.6
1.4
1.3
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
570
634
58,674
9,272
11,080
40.3
36.3
26.7
28.8
21.3
19.8
4.3
3.7
22.1
20.8
5.6
4.6
CESC
Buy
266
342
3,318
4,927
5,429
23.8
23.9
41.0
46.2
6.5
5.7
0.6
0.6
10.4
10.7
1.2
1.3
GIPCL
Buy
63
98
954
1,557
1,573
28.7
27.5
10.4
10.2
6.1
6.2
0.6
0.6
10.5
9.6
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Buy
148
201
122,321
73,558
84,843
23.4
23.6
12.6
14.1
11.8
10.5
1.5
1.4
13.3
13.6
2.4
2.2
53
78
1,568
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
6.3
4.2
0.4
0.4
6.3
8.9
3.7
2.7
187
31,811
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.6
14.0
1.2
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.7
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
64
115
2,698
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.0
2.5
0.2
0.2
8.4
9.1
3.0
2.2
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
307
116,622
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
17.2
13.9
2.0
1.7
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
82
27,153
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
25.5
17.3
1.9
1.7
7.5
10.0
1.7
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
68
13,963
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
16.0
10.1
0.3
0.3
2.1
3.2
2.1
1.7
199
245
1,982
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
10.9
8.9
2.4
2.0
23.9
24.3
0.5
0.5
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Buy
CRISIL
Neutral
1,075
7,541
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
31.3
26.9
14.2
11.3
50.9
46.9
7.3
6.1
Finolex Cables
Buy
38
60
574
2,341
2,656
8.5
8.8
8.0
10.0
4.7
3.8
0.7
0.6
18.1
20.2
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
93
116
1,812
2,053
2,437
22.6
22.4
13.5
16.3
6.9
5.7
1.0
0.9
15.4
16.5
1.0
0.8
Greenply
Buy
207
298
500
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.1
4.2
1.1
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
3,021
3,369
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
30.3
24.7
17.5
14.0
64.2
63.1
3.7
2.9
Sintex
Buy
59
129
1,601
5,219
5,912
16.5
16.9
15.8
21.4
3.7
2.7
0.6
0.5
14.7
17.1
0.5
0.4
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
254
439
238
1,045
1,173
12.3
12.4
61.5
73.2
4.1
3.5
0.8
0.7
20.2
20.4
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Neutral
27
1,196
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(7.9)
11.4
(11.0)
23.1
0.4
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
58
116
361
322
355
36.3
35.8
8.3
9.6
6.9
6.0
1.0
0.8
14.5
14.9
1.5
1.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 11, 2012
Market Outlook
May 14, 2012

Market Outlook 14th May 2012

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Market Outlook 14th May 2012

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Market Outlook

May 14, 2012

(0.8) (127.1) 16,293

(1.2) (120.1) 10,107

OIL & GAS

(1.3) (262.7) 19,965

IIP shrinks in March by 3.5%

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 10, 2012)

FII Derivatives (May 11, 2012)

IIP shrinks in March by 3.5%

Bhushan Steel (CMP: `438 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Indian Bank (CMP: `180 / TP: `218 / Upside: 21.6% )

Federal Bank (CMP: `414 / TP - / Upside: -)

Thermax (CMP: `418/ TP: - / Upside: -)

Graphite India- 1QCY2012 (CMP: `93 / TP: `124 / Upside: 34%)

Goodyear India (CMP: `332, TP: `372, Upside: 12%)

CCCL (CMP: `14 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

EBITDA margin (%)

Ashok Leyland Ltd - (14/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

JSW Steel Ltd - Consolidated (14/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Larsen & Toubro Ltd - (14/05/2012)

Cummins India Ltd - (15/05/2012)

Unitech Ltd - Consolidated (15/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Economic and Political News

Disappointing March IIP numbers, output falls by 3.5%

Ashok Leyland cuts vehicle prices by 1%

May 15, 2012

May 16, 2012

Blue Star, J K Lakshmi Cements

May 17, 2012

Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam

May 18, 2012

Coal India, St Bk of India, Tata Steel, HT Media

May 19, 2012

May 20, 2012

May 21, 2012

Adani Enterp., Adani Power, Nalco, Zee Entertainment, Tata Comm

May 22, 2012

Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn.

May 23, 2012

Rural Elec.Corp., Tata Global, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories

May 24, 2012

GSPL, TVS Motor, Madras Cements, Hitachi

May 25, 2012

May 26, 2012

May 27, 2012

May 28, 2012

Motherson Sumi, Britannia, Amara Raja Batteries, Subros

May 29, 2012

Tata Motors, GMR Infra., Aurobindo Pharma

May 14, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

May 14, 2012

May 15, 2012

Monthly Wholesale Prices

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)