MACRO RESEARCH

F/X Update

UKRAINIAN ECONOMY

May 7, 2012

Positive F/X News Conducive to New Sovereign Issuance

UAH:USD Forecasts (e-o-p)
Spot (May-04)
8.04

2Q12
7.97

3Q12
8.00

4Q12
8.00

UAH:USD Dynamics
7.85
7.90
7.95
8.00
8.05
8.10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12

f The NBU announced today its reserves rose by 1.7% m-o-m or $532m in April, to
$31.7bn (still down 0.4% YTD). The increase resulted mostly from the central
banks F/X purchase interventions as the effects of the revaluation of non-USD
denominated reserves, change in the gold holdings and volume of government
F/X operations were relatively small. The NBUs 2011 financial statement suggests
USD-denominated assets accounted for approx. 50% of its year-end reserves of
$31.7bn, with another 29% attributed to EUR, 6% to GBP, 4% to monetary gold and
the remainder to other currencies. As the EUR:USD and GBP:USD rates changed
little in April, currency revaluation had virtually no impact on NBU reserves last
month. The Bank increased its gold holdings by a minor $74m m-o-m, to $1.6bn,
while the government raised an equivalent of $168m from sales of F/X
denominated domestic bonds (vs. $520m in March) and repaid an est. $50m in F/X
debt interest, implying a net inflow of $118m.
f The NBU thus purchased an est. $300-350m from the F/X market last month,
potentially marking its largest positive intervention in a year. We think that
export proceeds, namely steel and grain sales, along with lower (or no) F/X
demand from oil and gas monopoly Naftogaz Ukrainy were the major contributors
to Aprils F/X surplus, while demand for foreign cash an important driver of the
domestic F/X market likely remained low. As reported, Naftogaz attracted a
$2bn 7-year loan from Russian Gazprombank in late March and likely used some
of it to settle its monthly gas bill in early April (est. $560m net of transit fees).

Real Effective Exchange Rates

1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8

Russia

Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12

Ukraine

f The hryvnias gradual real devaluation on the back of record low domestic inflation
probably also contributed to improving Ukraines non-energy trade balance. The
hryvnias real effective exchange rate declined by an est. 5% YTD as CPI slowed to
0.6% y-o-y in April, a nine-month low, while PPI remained close to 7%, the lowest
level since 2009, implying a comparable gain in external price competitiveness.

NBU International Reserves ($bn)

Gross Reserves

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12

f Positive F/X developments along with a recent sovereign rally provide a

favorable backdrop for the government to tap the Eurobond market. Five-year
benchmarks Ukraine 16s and 17s have added 2-3 points in the past two weeks and
are currently yielding 8.5-8.8%, or close to the governments targeted level.

Net Reserves

f We thus stick to the view that NBU reserves and F/X market dynamics will
remain positive in 2Q12 thanks to still strong exports of metals and grain,
availability of F/X loan proceeds for Naftogaz, seasonal growth in F/X cash supply
during the vacation season, one-off export inflows of est. $300-400m related to the
Euro 2012 football championship and possible government F/X borrowings.

UAH:USD NDF Curves

10.5

Latest (May 7, 2012)

10.0

f We, however, think that pressures on the currency will reappear later this year and
the NBU will need to restart foreign currency sales to support the hryvnia. Aside
from the usual threats posed by lower steel/higher oil prices, risks to the currency
may stem from a potential spike in household F/X demand being triggered, for
example, by expectations of post-election devaluation. We forecast end-2012 NBU
reserves at $25bn or 3.0 months of 2012E imports. This suggests a $6.7bn (21%)
decline from the current level, including $2.0bn of NBU repayments to the IMF.

End-2011

9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

Key F/X Market Statistics

April
UAH:USD (market; e-o-p)
UAH:EUR (official; e-o-p)
NBU Gross Reserves ($bn)

8.04
10.57
31.7

Chg.
Chg.
Chg.
(% m-o-m) (% y-o-y) (% YTD)
(0.1%)
(0.9%) 0.1%
0.3%
11.5% (1.2%)
1.7%
(17.4%) (0.4%)

April
Interbank Market Turnover ($bn)
F/X Market Interventions ($bn)*
Net F/X Cash Market Flows ($bn)

16.0
0.3
na

Chg.
(% m-o-m)
(9.0%)
98.7%
na

Chg.
(% y-o-y)
39.3%
nm
na

4M12
61.0
(0.6)
(2.0)**

Chg.
(%, y-o-y)
56.4%
nm
(21%)

Note: *estimated data; **1Q12 data. Sources: NBU, Dragon Capital

Analyst: Olena Bilan

(+380 44) 490 7120

Email: research@dragon-capital.com
www.dragon-capital.ua

May 7, 2012

UAH:USD (market; lhs)

UAH:EUR (official; rhs)

7.8
7.9

8
9
10

8.1

11

8.2

12

m-o-m

UAH:USD and UAH:EUR Dynamics

2011 Imports: $83bn

Other

YTD

BRL
INR
RON
ZAR
PLN
MXN
CZK
SKK
BGN
ARS
IDR
RUB
UAH
HKD
KRW
THB
CNY
ISK
MYR
TWD
PEN
COP
TRY
SGD
PHP
HUF

Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12

8.0

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
(2%)
(4%)
(6%)

EM Currencies vs. USD in April

2011 Exports: $69bn

CIS
Europe

RUR

Exports
Imports

Asia

EUR

The Americas

USD

Africa and others

50%

75%

Currency Structure of Trade Flows (% of total; 9M11)

100

Devaluation pressures
Apr-12

Jan-12

Exchange Market Pressure Index*

Ukraine (2011) Em. Markets (2011)

USD

Dev. Markets
(2011)

Currency Composition of International Reserves****

Kazakhstan

Romania

Bulgaria

Poland

Belarus

Russia
2012E***

57%

2011

52%

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010

EUR

66%

2009

GBP

30
25
20
15
10
5
0

IMF Loans ($bn; lhs)

Net Intl. Reserves* ($bn; lhs)
Gross Intl. Reserves (m. of imports; rhs)

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

2008

Other

2004

30%

23%

27%

75

Gross Intl Reserves: Ukraine vs. Peers (end-March)

NBU Interventions and International Reserves ($bn)

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%

60

$bn (lhs)
Months of current merch. imports (rhs)

300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Hungary

Gross Int'l Reserves (rhs)

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12

F/X Interventions (lhs)

Net Int'l Reserves** (rhs)

45

F/X Flows & NBU Interventions ($bn)

Turkey

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

90

6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)
(6)

30

Net F/X Cash Flows

Cross Border Flows
NBU Intervention

3
2
1
0
(1)
(2)
(3)

2007

95

15

Geographical Breakdown of External Trade ($bn; 2011)

Appreciation pressures

105

Ukraine

25%

2006

0%

Czech Rep.

25%

2005

50%

Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12

75%

NBU Reserves Annual Dynamics

Notes: *EMP is a weighted index of m-o-m changes in the UAH:USD market rate and net NBU reserves due to market interventions; 100 means no change
**equals gross intl reserves net of IMF loans, thus showing the central banks own reserve; ***current gas contract/no IMF funding scenario; *****for emerging and
developed markets the reserve volume is shown that the IMF managed to allocate to currencies (55.4% of the worlds total reserves). Sources: NBU, IMF, Bloomberg,
Dragon Capital estimates & forecasts

Ukrainian Economy: F/X Market Update

May 7, 2012
CURRENT TRENDS
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Real Sector
Real GDP (% y-o-y)
Household Consumption (% y-o-y)
Gross Fix. Cap. Formation (% y-o-y)
Nominal GDP (UAH bn)
Nominal GDP ($bn) 1)
Real Ind. Output (% y-o-y)
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)
Core Inflation Index (e-o-p.; y-o-y %)
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)

5.4%
13.8%
2.1%
264
33
10.3%

3.8%
15.3%
5.2%
316
40
8.4%

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2012

Dec

6.6% 4.6% 1.8%

17.8% 12.8%
11.0% 16.9%
388 349
49
44
9.3% 3.0% 0.9%

8.0% 4.9% 8.6% 8.9% 8.7% 9.6% 6.4% 4.7% 3.8% (0.5%)

7.7% 11.9% 5.9% 4.6% 1.9%

7.0% 8.3% 8.1% 6.9% 5.4%
20.3% 20.0% 21.3% 14.2% 6.5%

7.2% 7.7% 9.4% 11.0% 11.9% 10.6% 8.9% 5.9% 5.4% 5.2%
7.1% 7.0% 7.3% 7.8% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 8.1% 7.8% 7.3%
21.4% 20.3% 20.8% 18.8% 20.0% 20.3% 19.9% 21.3% 16.3% 17.3%

External Sector
C/A Balance (cum.; $bn)
(1.3) (2.8) (5.0) (9.0) (1.2)
C/A Balance (cum.; % of GDP)
(3.8%) (4.0%) (4.5%) (5.5%)
Merch. Trade Balance (cum.; $bn)
(3.1) (5.4) (9.3) (13.8) (2.7)
Goods Exports (cum.; $bn)
15.6 33.3 50.7 69.4 16.4
Exports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y)
49% 43% 38% 33% 5%
Goods Imports (cum.; $bn)
18.7 38.6 59.9 83.2 19.1
Imports Growth (cum.; % y-o-y)
60% 53% 44% 37% 3%
Services Trade Balance (cum.; $bn)
1.0 2.2 3.9
4.9 1.0
Net Income Balance (cum.; $bn)
(0.3) (1.6) (2.6) (3.7) (0.1)
Net Current Transfers (cum.; $bn)
1.0 1.9 2.9
3.7 0.7
Cap. & Fin. Accounts Balance (cum.; $bn)
2.1 3.8 4.8
6.3 0.6
Net FDI Inflow (cum.; $bn)
0.9 3.3 5.4
7.0 1.4
Gross Ext. Debt ($bn)
121 123 123 126
Public Finances
Central Budget Revenues (cum.; UAH bn)
66 139 227 315
77
Central Budget Revenues (cum.; % y-o-y) 28.5% 24.3% 26.6% 22.5% 16.3%
Central Budget Expenditures (cum.; UAH bn)
67 150 235 338
76
Central Budget Expend. (cum.;% y-o-y)
17.8% 8.0% 9.0% 10.9% 13.3%
Central Budget Balance (cum.; UAH bn)
(0.9) (10.4) (8.2) (23.4) 1.0
General Govt Balance (cum.; UAH bn) 2)
(6.3) (18.7) (14.0) (36.2) (4.4)
Total Public Debt ($bn)
56.4 60.2 58.4 59.2 60.5
Total Public Debt (% full-year GDP)
34% 36% 35% 36% 33%
Domestic Public Debt ($bn)
20.3 21.9 20.4 21.7 23.5
External Public Debt ($bn)
36.1 38.2 38.0 37.5 37.0
Debt to IMF ($bn)
16.7 16.7 16.7 16.2 15.8
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (e-o-p; UAH bn)
Monetary Base Growth(% y-o-y)
Money Supply (M3; e-o-p; UAH bn)
Money Supply Growth (M3; % y-o-y)
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn)
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y)
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn)
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y)
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)
Forex
NBU Intervention ($bn)
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn)
Gross F/X Reserves (m. of imports)
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p)
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.)

2011
Mar Apr

224
13.7%
621
25.7%
743
6.7%
439
30.0%
13.1%
6.5%

228
3.9%
652
22.3%
765
9.8%
461
26.8%
14.0%
6.4%

234
8.1%
662
16.4%
793
10.1%
469
19.3%
15.5%
7.2%

0.5 (0.3) (1.9)

36.4 37.6 35.0
4.5 4.6 4.3
7.98 7.99 8.00
7.96 7.99 8.00

(1.3) (1.7) (2.6) (2.8) (3.3) (4.3) (5.0) (6.4) (7.9) (9.0)
(3.8%)
- (4.0%)
- (4.5%)
- (5.5%)
(3.1) (3.8) (4.8) (5.4) (6.5) (8.0) (9.3) (11.1) (12.5) (13.8)
15.6 21.3 27.0 33.3 38.7 44.6 50.7 56.5 62.9 69.4
49% 45% 43% 43% 40% 40% 38% 36% 34% 33%
18.7 25.0 31.9 38.6 45.3 52.6 59.9 67.6 75.4 83.2
60% 54% 54% 53% 49% 46% 44% 42% 40% 37%
1.0 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.9
(0.3) (0.7) (1.2) (1.6) (1.8) (2.2) (2.6) (2.7) (3.3) (3.7)
1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.7
2.1 3.5 4.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 4.8 4.7 5.2 6.3
0.9 1.8 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.7 5.4 5.7 5.9 7.0
-

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

2.0% 1.6% (1.1%)

3.7% 3.0% 1.9% 0.6%

6.6% 5.9% 5.4%
11.8% 7.5% 6.5% 6.9%
0.4
(0.1)
5.4
14%
5.5
7%
0.4
(0.1)
0.2
(1.3)
0.5
-

(0.9) (1.2)
(1.9) (2.7)
10.4 16.4
10% 5%
12.3 19.1
6% 3%
0.8 1.0
(0.2) (0.1)
0.4 0.7
(0.0) 0.6
1.3 1.4
-

66
28.5%
67
17.8%
(0.9)
(6.3)
56.4
34%
20.3
36.1
16.7

90
20.9%
94
20.2%
(4.0)
(8.7)
58.2
35%
20.9
37.2
17.1

119
26.9%
121
10.6%
(1.6)
(6.6)
57.8
35%
20.9
36.9
16.9

139
24.3%
150
8.0%
(10.4)
(18.7)
60.1
36%
21.9
38.2
16.9

169
23.9%
177
8.2%
(8.6)
(16.4)
-

202
26.2%
207
10.3%
(5.2)
(12.1)
-

227
26.6%
235
9.0%
(8.2)
(14.0)
58.4
35%
20.4
38.0
16.7

252
25.4%
264
9.6%
(12.4)
(20.4)
58.9
36%
20.7
38.2
16.7

284
22.7%
295
10.4%
(11.1)
(21.3)
-

315
22.5%
338
10.9%
(23.4)
(36.2)
59.2
36%
21.7
37.5
16.2

22
52
77
18.3% 15.9% 16.3%
20
47
76
5.0% 16.1% 13.3%
1.5 4.7 1.0
(0.2) 1.5 (4.4)
59.5 59.2 60.5
33% 33% 33%
21.8 22.0 23.5
37.7 37.2 37.0
16.4 15.9 15.8

233
4.3%
688
10.8%
792
6.6%
497
13.2%
15.9%
9.7%

224
13.7%
621
25.7%
743
6.7%
439
30.0%
13.1%
6.5%

230
14.7%
638
25.0%
752
7.8%
450
28.8%
13.0%
6.0%

228
12.1%
636
22.1%
758
8.9%
448
25.2%
13.4%
6.4%

228
3.9%
652
22.3%
765
9.8%
461
26.8%
14.0%
6.4%

236
5.4%
657
19.3%
770
9.1%
459
22.4%
13.9%
6.3%

240
8.8%
664
19.5%
781
10.1%
467
22.8%
14.9%
6.5%

234
8.1%
662
16.4%
793
10.1%
469
19.3%
15.5%
7.2%

234
5.7%
666
15.7%
800
10.3%
475
18.7%
18.7%
10.4%

231
7.1%
654
13.8%
794
9.2%
466
16.7%
18.9%
11.5%

240
6.3%
686
14.7%
793
9.6%
489
18.2%
17.2%
11.1%

230
3.7%
675
12.3%
787
9.0%
487
15.2%
15.6%
10.3%

(2.0) (0.9)
31.8 31.2
3.9 4.1
8.04 8.03
8.02 8.03

0.3
36.4
4.5
7.97
7.95

1.1
38.4
4.7
7.96
7.97

0.3 (2.0) (1.5) (0.7)

38.2 35.0 34.2 32.4
4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0
8.00 8.00 8.01 8.02
8.00 8.00 8.01 8.02

0.2
31.8
3.9
8.04
8.02

240
6.3%
686
14.7%
793
9.6%
489
18.2%
17.2%
11.1%

0.1 (1.5) (0.3)

37.9 37.6 37.8
4.6 4.6 4.6
7.98 7.99 8.00
7.99 7.99 7.99

229
5.1%
680
12.3%
790
8.3%
490
15.1%
15.3%
10.5%

233
4.3%
688
10.8%
792
6.6%
497
13.2%
15.9%
9.7%

(0.9) (0.1)
31.4 31.0
4.1 4.1
8.03 8.01
8.04 8.02

0.2
31.1
4.1
8.03
8.03

0.3
31.7
4.2
8.04
8.03

Notes: 1) nominal GDP in U.S. dollars was estimated based on official exchange rate; 2) includes central budget, local budgets and Pension Fund, excludes Naftogaz Ukrainy
and bank rehabilitation costs. Sources: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates

Ukrainian Economy: F/X Market Update

May 7, 2012
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Year

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

2012E

Real Sector
Real GDP (% y-o-y)
Household Consumption (% y-o-y)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% y-o-y)
Nominal GDP (UAH bn)
Nominal GDP ($bn)
GDP per Capita (at F/X rate; $)
Real Industrial Output (% y-o-y)
Real Agricultural Output (% y-o-y)

7.3%
15.9%
21.2%
544
108
2,310
6.2%
2.5%

7.9%
17.1%
20.0%
721
143
3,077
10.2%
(6.5%)

2.3%
11.6%
1.9%
948
180
3,890
(3.1%)
17.1%

(14.8%)
(14.9%)
(50.5%)
913
117
2,549
(21.9%)
(1.2%)

4.2%
7.0%
4.9%
1,095
138
3,013
11.0%
(1.5%)

5.2%
14.0%
9.0%
1,314
165
3,614
7.6%
17.5%

2.2%
4.0%
3.0%
1,450
181
3,982
2.5%
(6.0%)

Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)
Consumer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y)
Producer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y)
GDP Deflator (% y-o-y)

11.6%
9.1%
15.6%
9.6%
14.8%

16.6%
12.8%
23.3%
19.5%
22.7%

22.3%
25.2%
23.0%
35.5%
28.6%

12.3%
15.9%
14.3%
6.5%
13.0%

9.1%
9.4%
18.7%
15.0%
15.0%

4.6%
8.0%
14.2%
18.7%
15.4%

7.5%
6.1%
5.0%
9.6%
8.0%

External Sector
Current Account Balance ($bn)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Merchandise Trade Balance ($bn)
Goods Exports (FOB; $bn)
Exports Growth (y-o-y; %)
Goods Imports (FOB; $bn)
Imports Growth (y-o-y; %)
Services Trade Balance ($bn)
Net Income Balance ($bn)
Net Current Transfers ($bn)
Capital and Financial Accounts Balance ($bn)
Net FDI Inflow ($bn)

(1.6)
(1.4%)
(5.2)
38.9
11.2%
44.1
22.1%
2.1
(1.7)
3.2
4.0
5.7

(5.3)
(3.7%)
(10.6)
49.8
28.0%
60.4
36.9%
2.4
(0.7)
3.5
14.7
9.2

(12.8)
(7.1%)
(16.1)
67.7
35.9%
83.8
38.7%
1.7
(1.5)
3.1
9.7
9.9

(1.7)
(1.5%)
(4.3)
40.4
(40.3%)
44.7
(46.7%)
2.4
(2.4)
2.7
(12.0)
4.7

(2.9)
(2.1%)
(8.7)
52.2
29.2%
60.9
36.2%
5.0
(2.0)
3.0
8.0
5.8

(9.3)
(5.5%)
(13.8)
69.5
33.1%
83.3
37.5%
4.6
(3.7)
3.7
6.5
6.9

(10.3)
(5.7%)
(16.7)
70.0
0.7%
85.0
2.0%
5.6
(3.3)
4.0
6.3
5.0

Gross External Debt ($bn)

Gross External Debt (% of GDP)

54.5
50.6%

80.0
56.0%

101.7
56.6%

103.3
88.2%

117.3
85.1%

128.2
78%

134.0
74%

Public Finances
Central Budget Revenues (% of GDP) 1), 3)
Central Budget Expenditures (% of GDP) 1), 3)
Central Budget Balance (% of GDP) 1), 3)

24.5%
25.2%
(0.7%)

23.0%
24.4%
(1.4%)

24.4%
25.8%
(1.3%)

23.0%
26.8%
(3.9%)

23.5%
27.9%
(4.4%)

23.9%
25.7%
(1.8%)

23.7%
25.9%
(2.2%)

General Government Balance (% of GDP) 2), 3)

Naftogaz Balance (% of GDP) 2), 3)

(1.4%)
n/a

(2.0%)
n/a

(3.2%)
n/a

(6.3%)
(2.5%)

(5.7%)
(1.5%)

(2.7%)
(1.6%)

(3.0%)
(1.4%)

Gross Government Debt ($bn) 3)

Gross Government Debt (% of GDP) 3)
External Debt ($bn) 3)
Debt to IMF ($bn) 3)

15.9
14.8%
12.7
0.9

17.6
12.3%
13.8
0.4

24.6
20.0%
18.6
4.7

39.8
34.8%
26.6
12.9

54.3
39.5%
34.8
16.3

59.9
36.4%
38.2
16.3

64.7
35.7%
39.6
12.9

Monetary & Banking Indicators

Monetary Base (% y-o-y)
Money Supply (M2, % y-o-y)
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.)
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn)
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y)
Total Credits (% of GDP)
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn)
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y)
Total Deposits (% of GDP)

17.5%
34.3%
15.1%
7.9%
245.2
71.0%
45.1%
184.4
38.9%
33.9%

46.0%
50.8%
13.9%
8.2%
426.9
74.1%
59.2%
280.2
51.9%
38.9%

31.6%
31.0%
17.5%
10.0%
733.9
71.9%
77.4%
357.8
27.7%
37.7%

4.4%
(5.4%)
20.9%
13.8%
718.0
(2.2%)
78.6%
328.0
(8.3%)
35.9%

15.8%
23.1%
14.7%
10.1%
725.0
1.0%
66.2%
414.2
26.3%
37.8%

6.3%
13.8%
14.9%
7.7%
793.0
9.4%
60.4%
487.0
17.6%
37.1%

15.0%
13.4%
16.0%
9.8%
857.0
8.1%
59.1%
535.0
9.9%
36.9%

22.3
3.7
5.05
5.05

32.5
5.4
5.05
5.05

31.5
3.8
7.85
5.31

26.5
5.7
8.00
8.14

34.6
5.7
7.96
7.95

31.8
3.9
8.04
7.99

25.0
3.0
8.00
8.00

Forex
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn)
Gross F/X Reserves (months of current year imports)

UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p)

UAH:USD (market rate; avg.)

Notes: 1) excluding social security funds, Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; 2) the general government balance includes the central and local budgets, Pension
Fund and (2009 onwards) Naftogaz Ukrainy, but excludes bank rehabilitation costs; 3) SDRs are treated as deficit financing item and included in debt statistics. Sources: SSC,
Finance Ministry, NBU, Dragon Capital estimates and forecasts

Ukrainian Economy: F/X Market Update

May 7, 2012

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SALES AND TRADING

RESEARCH

EQUITIES

FIXED INCOME

Managing Director,
Equities Sales and Trading
Dmytro Tarabakin
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Ivo Suchy
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International Equity Sales
Peter Bobrinsky
bobrinsky@dragon-capital.com
Managing Director, Equity
Sales & Retail Business
Development
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Trading and Domestic Sales
Denis Matsuyev
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Fixed Income Trading

Oleksandr Ublinskykh
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Fyodor Bagnenko
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Kostyantyn Kucherenko
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Strategy
Andriy Bespyatov, PhD, CFA
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Electricity, Oil & Gas

Dennis Sakva, CFA
sakva@dragon-capital.com

Economics
Olena Bilan
bilan@dragon-capital.com

Manufacturing, Real Estate,

Telecommunications
Taisiya Shepetko
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Politics
Viktor Luhovyk
luhovyk@dragon-capital.com
Banking & Insurance
Anastasia Tuyukova
tuyukova@dragon-capital.com
Metals & Mining
Alexander Makarov
makarov@dragon-capital.com
Food & Agriculture,
Chemicals, FMCG
Tamara Levchenko
levchenko@dragon-capital.com
Tatjana Telezko
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Fixed Income
Olena Bilan
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Anastasia Tuyukova
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Editing
Viktor Luhovyk
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Conal Campbell
campbell@dragon-capital.com
Research Assistants
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Nadiya Syhydyuk
syhydyuk@dragon-capital.com

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The opinions, forecasts and estimates in this report reflect our good-faith judgment as of the date of publication, and may change without notice.
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Ukrainian Economy: F/X Market Update