Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Ashok Leyland
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
4QFY11 3,848 508 13.2 298 % chg (yoy) 12.0 (7.5) (230)bp (13.2) Angel est. 4,298 464 10.8 253 % diff 0.3 1.2 10bp 2.4
`26 `33
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported an in-line results for 4QFY2012 led by a strong volume growth of 20.2% yoy (53.7% qoq) aided by increasing contribution from the recently launched light commercial vehicle (LCV) Dost, ~14% of total volumes in 4QFY2012. Due to attractive valuations we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. In-line results for 4QFY2012: For 4QFY2012, AL reported an in-line revenue growth of 12% yoy (48.5% qoq) drive by a strong 20.2% yoy growth in volumes, which was partially offset by 6.8% yoy (3.4% qoq) decline in net average realization. While volume growth was supported by the incremental volumes from Dost; net average realization declined led by adverse product-mix (higher contribution from lower priced Dost) and higher level of discounts. EBIDTA margins came in at 10.9% (down 230bp yoy and up 366bp qoq) impacted on account of weaker product mix and high other expenditure. Other expenditure increased primarily on account of increase in advertising and brand building expenses (`6cr) and higher R&D spends (`10cr) during the quarter. Further, AL also incurred a MTM loss of `15cr on forex liabilities. As a result, operating profit declined by 7.5% yoy to `470cr. Net profit, however, declined by 13.2% yoy to `259cr led by higher interest (up 32% yoy on higher working capital requirements) and depreciation expense (up 24% yoy) . Outlook and valuation: At `26, AL is trading at attractive valuations of 8.8x its FY2014E earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `33, valuing the stock at 11x its FY2014E earnings. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 38.6 20.1 30.6 10.7
3m (11.6)
1yr
3yr 34.1
(10.3) (11.9)
4.4 135.4
FY2011 11,177 50.9 631 64.6 10.9 2.4 11.0 2.6 16.5 14.1 0.7 6.7
FY2012E 12,842 14.9 564 (10.6) 9.8 2.1 12.2 2.4 13.8 12.8 0.6 6.2
FY2013E 14,798 15.2 645 14.3 9.6 2.4 10.7 2.1 14.7 13.8 0.5 5.7
FY2014E 16,687 12.8 791 22.6 9.6 3.0 8.8 1.9 16.5 15.0 0.4 4.8
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 4,311 3,026 70.2 247 5.7 183 4.3 385 8.9 3,841 470 10.9 72 96 11 313 (2) 314 7.3 56 17.7 259 6.0 266 1.0
4QFY11 3,848 2,712 70.5 302 7.8 64 1.7 262 6.8 3,340 508 13.2 55 77 16 392 392 10.2 93 23.9 298 7.7 266 1.1
yoy chg (%) 12.0 11.6 (18.2) 184.7 47.1 15.0 (7.5) 32.0 23.8 (30.5) (20.1) (19.7) (40.4) (13.2)
3QFY12 2,903 1,992 68.6 272 9.4 156 5.4 272 9.4 2,693 210 7.2 60 87 9 72 0 72 2.5 5 7.0 67 2.3 266
qoq chg (%) 48.5 51.9 (9.4) 17.1 41.6 42.6 123.4 20.0 10.3 27.0 334.7 336.9 1,000.6 286.7
FY2012 12,842 8,954 69.7 1,020 7.9 507 4.0 1,104 8.6 11,586 1,256 9.8 255 353 40 688 (2) 690 5.4 124 18.0 566 4.4 266
FY2011 11,177 7,899 70.7 960 8.6 273 2.4 831 7.4 9,963 1,214 10.9 189 267 44 802 802 7.2 171 21.3 631 5.6 266 2.4
chg (%) 14.9 13.4 6.3 85.6 32.8 16.3 3.5 35.1 31.9 (9.2) (14.1) (13.9) (27.3) (10.3)
(13.2)
0.3
286.7
2.1
(10.3)
3QFY12 qoq chg (%) 5,625 14,697 403 20,725 2,490 23,215 3,017 55.9 47.9 (26.3) 48.6 96.5 53.7 36.7
Net sales up 12% yoy on 20.2% yoy growth in volumes: AL reported an in-line 12% yoy (48.5% qoq) growth in net sales to `4,311cr, led by strong volume growth of 20.2% yoy (53.7% qoq). Volume performance was boosted by the recently launched LCV Dost, which accounted for ~14% of total sales during the quarter. While volumes in the MHCV goods segment declined by 3.2% yoy, MHCV passenger volumes jumped by 26% yoy. Net average realization, however, witnessed a decline of ~6.8% yoy (down 3.4% qoq), largely on account of higher contribution from the lower priced Dost vehicles and higher levels of discounts.
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
M&HCV passenger
M&HCV goods
Total M&HCV
4QFY12
21.0 25.5 17.8 22.3
23.7
21.1
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
EBITDA margin recovers sequentially to 10.9%: For 4QFY2012, ALs EBITDA margin recovered 366bp sequentially to 10.9% primarily due to higher operating leverage. However, margins witnessed a 230bp of contraction on a yoy basis led by weaker product mix, higher discounts and higher other expenditure. Other expenditure jumped 47.1% yoy (41.6% qoq) on forex loss of `15cr, one time charge on marketing and brand building of `6cr, R&D expenditure of `16cr, and transportation cost of moving vehicles from Pantnagar to Southern India of `25cr. Higher other expenses was partially offset by lower staff cost (down 18.2% yoy and 9.4% qoq), primarily due to actuarial gains and lower bonus provision for FY2012 on account of lower profits. As a result, the companys operating profit declined 7.5% yoy (up 123.4% qoq on higher volumes and margin expansion) to `470cr.
4QFY12
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
Net profit down 13.2% yoy: Net profit at `259cr (down 13.2% yoy) was in-line with our estimates benefitting from lower tax rate led by higher R&D spends. However increase in interest (up 32% yoy on higher working capital requirements) and depreciation expense (up 24% yoy) impacted the companys bottom-line performance. Sequentially, net profit increased 286.7% yoy led by sharp improvement in operating performance and high other income.
4QFY12
Investment arguments
Volume growth to benefit from easing of interest rates and recently launched Dost: MHCV demand has witnessed a slowdown in recent times due to high interest rates and slowdown in industrial activity; however, we believe MHCV demand is near its trough. With easing of interest rates we expect pick-up in industrial activity, leading to a rebound in MHCV sales. Further, recently introduced LCV - Dost (through JV with Nissan) have been received well by the markets and AL expects to ramp-up the production in FY2013E. As such we expect AL to register a strong ~20% volume CAGR over FY2012-14E. EBITDA margin pressures to persist due to change in product-mix: While the raw-material prices have stabilized and AL continues to benefit from the ramp-up in production at Pantnagar facility (profitability estimated to be ~25% higher due to cost savings of ~`35,000/vehicle); the product-mix is set to change due to increasing proportion of lower margin LCV Dost (contribution to total volumes to increase from ~7% in FY2012 to ~23% in FY2013E). AL has indicated that it earns marketing/distribution fees of `15,000-`18,000/vehicle on Dost sales and expects margins to be impacted by 50-100bp going ahead.
Dec-05
Apr-03
Jan-05
Jun-10
Feb-04
Nov-06
Oct-07
Sep-08
May-11
Apr-12
Jul-09
Feb-11
Aug-05
Mar-06
Aug-08
Jun-07
Jan-08
Apr-09
Jun-10
Oct-06
Jul-05
Jul-08
Jan-04
Jan-07
Apr-03
Apr-06
Apr-09
Jan-10
Jul-11
Oct-04
Oct-07
Oct-10
Apr-12
Jul-06
Jul-07
Nov-09
May-10
Dec-07
Dec-08
Jun-08
Jan-06
Aug-05
Jan-07
Jun-09
Nov-09
Nov-10
Apr-12
Apr-12
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 4,939 1,540 3,399 998 264 3,166 88 790 2,288 2,141 1,025 10 5,695 6,019 1,769 4,250 561 326 4,152 519 973 2,660 2,961 1,191 5 6,334 6,692 2,058 4,634 358 1,230 4,367 180 794 3,394 3,528 839 4 7,065 7,498 2,411 5,087 375 1,534 4,915 33 1,336 3,547 4,818 97 4 7,097 8,086 2,791 5,295 404 1,534 5,595 202 1,480 3,914 4,902 693 4 7,931 8,385 3,189 5,197 419 1,534 6,472 390 1,669 4,414 5,466 1,006 4 8,161 133 3,341 3,474 1,958 263 5,695 133 3,536 3,669 2,280 385 6,334 133 3,830 3,963 2,658 444 7,065 266 3,942 4,208 2,399 490 7,097 266 4,276 4,542 2,899 490 7,931 266 4,756 5,022 2,649 490 8,161 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 0.5 3.5 1.7 0.4 1.9 5.5 0.3 1.0 5.0 0.2 0.7 3.5 0.3 0.8 3.6 0.1 0.5 4.5 1.5 76 40 114 33 1.4 73 49 110 40 1.8 63 36 92 22 1.8 63 35 105 10 1.9 62 35 109 7 2.0 62 35 109 12 6.2 6.5 6.4 9.2 12.4 10.7 14.1 17.0 16.5 12.8 15.7 13.8 13.8 16.2 14.7 15.0 18.6 16.5 4.6 0.9 1.7 7.1 10.2 0.3 6.3 7.5 0.8 1.7 9.7 3.7 0.4 12.2 8.5 0.8 2.2 14.8 6.0 0.4 17.9 7.0 0.8 2.3 13.1 8.3 0.3 14.3 7.0 0.8 2.4 13.8 8.9 0.2 15.0 7.2 0.8 2.6 15.0 7.7 0.2 16.4 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.5 7.9 1.4 1.4 2.2 0.8 8.8 2.4 2.4 3.4 1.0 10.0 2.1 2.1 3.5 1.0 10.9 2.4 2.4 3.9 1.0 12.2 3.0 3.0 4.5 1.0 14.0 38.8 18.8 3.3 1.9 1.3 18.7 1.5 18.1 11.8 3.0 2.9 1.0 11.0 1.3 11.0 7.7 2.6 3.8 0.7 6.7 1.2 12.2 7.5 2.4 3.8 0.6 6.2 1.1 10.7 6.8 2.1 3.8 0.5 5.7 1.0 8.8 5.8 1.9 3.8 0.4 4.8 0.9 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Ashok Leyland No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11