Forecasting

Regression analysis is most often used for prediction. The goal in regression analysis is to create
a mathematical model that can be used to predict the values of a dependent variable based upon
the values of an independent variable. In other words, we use the model to predict the value of Y
when we know the value of X.

y =mx+b
Where
y = how far up
x = how far along
m = Slope or Gradient (how steep the line is)
b = the Y Intercept (where the line crosses the Y axis)

Slope = m

n xy x y

Intercept b

y m x

Here,

n x 2 x

means "the sum of." Thus

xy = sum of products = x1y1 + x2y2 + . . . + xnyn
x = sum of x-values = x1 + x2 + . . . + xn
y = sum of y-values = y1 + y2 + . . . + yn
x2 = sum of squares of x-values = x12 + x22+ . . . + xn2

x (year)

y (container/year)

1 (2004)

3500100

2 (2005)

4200100

3 (2006)

4700100

4 (2007)

5500100

5 (2008)

5594362

6 (2009)

6016451

7 (2010)

6500000

8 (2011)

7540000

Table above is data collected from annual report from year 2004 to 2011. Number of year will be
x and container throughput per year will be y. to match with equation, table above will add xy
and x2. Result is show below.

total ()

xy

3500100

3500100

4200100

8400200

4700100

14100300

5500100

22000400

16

5594362

27971810

25

6016451

36098706

36

6500000

45500000

49

7540000

60320000

64

36

43551213 217891516 204

8217891516 3643551213

8204 36
175288460
m
336
m 521691.85

43551213 521691.8536
8
24770306.4
b
8
b 3096288.3
b

When m=521691.85 and b=3096288.3

y 521691.85x 3096288.3 is regression line equation

For x=1
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.851 3096288.3
y 3617980

For x=2
y 521691.85x 3096288.3
y 521691.852 3096288.3
y 4139672

For x=3
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.853 3096288.3
y 4661364

For x=4
y 521691.85x 3096288.3
y 521691.854 3096288.3
y 5183056

For x=5
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.855 3096288.3
y 5704748

For x=6
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.856 3096288.3
y 6226439

For x=7
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.857 3096288.3
y 6748131

For x=8
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.858 3096288.3
y 7269823

For x=9
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.859 3096288.3
y 7791515

For x=10
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8510 3096288.3
y 8313207

For x=11
y 521691.85x 3096288.3
y 521691.8511 3096288.3
y 8834899

For x=12
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8512 3096288.3
y 9356591

For x=13
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8513 3096288.3
y 9878282

For x=14
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8514 3096288.3
y 10399974

For x=15
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8515 3096288.3
y 10921666

For x=16
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8516 3096288.3
y 11443358

For x=17
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8517 3096288.3
y 11965050

For x=18
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8518 3096288.3
y 12486742

For x=19
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8519 3096288.3
y 13008433

For x=20
y 521691.85 x 3096288.3
y 521691.8520 3096288.3
y 13530125