TomT Stock Market Model 2012-05-20

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators
Over 50 mid-term market timing guides that might be helpful
May 20, 2011
Overview
The Next Months: Rough start then probably fairly good -- unless Europe falls apart. (Forecast 6/30/2012)
My econometric models of the stock market are based on just a few basic macroeconomic variables tied to the U.S. economy and stock markets. They are far from omniscient. The models forecast a better-than-normal 10% gain for the broad stock market from now through the end of October. Personally, I think a 6% gain is a more realistic bet since the models do not directly factor in anything about sovereign debt fears for Europe. This isnt a forecast to get very excited about, but it is still a better than average return, especially considering that the summer period is statistically a time of weak performance. As long as the economy remains below par, there will be room for growth. The models give about 4 out of 5 odds that there will at least be some net stock price gain over the period. On the negative side, the models show better-than-even odds of a setback of at least 8% somewhere along the way. (I am guessing sooner rather than later.) In short: sell in May likely will hold true, at least for the start of the summer. A late summer - early fall rally would then be probable. The economic case for more stock market gains is believable and valuations have room to increase. These good prospects, however, could be destroyed quickly by panic (crisis in Europe) or euphoria (more monetary stimulus here, in Europe, or in China). While I have been terrifically optimistic about the market since November, 2008, I am more restrained now. The market has recovered the lions share of its recession losses so there is less force now pulling prices back to their long term trends. My hope is to be able to buy a significant summer market dip. Market Valuation Measures Several measures see the stock market as somewhat undervalued. However, the indicator Warren Buffet likes best says it is slightly overvalued. I favor the undervalued argument for the next six months. Economic Indicators Only about 15% of U.S. economists expect a second round of recession in the U.S. Most Composite Leading Economic Indicators anticipate slow growth rather than recession for the U.S.. Business profits should continue to be high as debt costs are at the lowest relative levels in several hundred years and businesses already are lean. Though profits may stay high, there isnt much room for quick expansion. Too bad, thats what the market likes. Trader Signals - Fast I have finally found a couple of indicators that appear to lead the market by a month or so. No guarantees. The market is falling as I write this. By the time you read this, these short term signals may give an entirely different picture. Trader Signals Slow The long running Second Great Contraction will likely continue to play out as a decade long disappointment much like the 1930s. Sell in May is statistically valid and it governs the summer months. International View Tough economic times and below-normal growth span most of the world. Growth estimates generally are below normal. Emerging economies will probably have faster growth than major developed nations. The greatest fears are for sovereign defaults in Europe or a hard landing in China. The kind of sovereign debt crisis that faces the world is nothing radically new. Historically, the only path out (lasting several years) is heavy inflation. Germany is blocking that path for Europe so collapse remains a possibility. Econometric Models Most number crunchers, my aspiration, conclude that the economy is still bad enough that it will likely keep getting somewhat better sooner or later... Reversion to the mean is working in our favor times are tough so eventually they are likely to improve. The pull back toward the mean, however, is not as strong as it has been for the past two years.
How did my forecasts do over the past half year? Meh.

Last October my models were very optimistic, but lingering fear of European sovereign defaults held my personal optimism somewhat in check. Im glad it did. I published a forecast of 12% to 15% gains in the Value Line Arithmetic Average, my main market gauge. By 5//1312 the market rose 10%. Fairly close. .
Copyright 2011 Tom Tiedeman, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. This private letter tries to provide somewhat objective research, not investment advice.

Still more than fully invested. (Margined) Select to view: Overview Market Valuation Measures Economic Indicators Trader Signals - Fast Trader Signals Slow International View Econometric Models About This Forecast
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Market Valuation Measures
If there was any real agreement on how to accurately value stocks, prices wouldnt go up and down as much as they do. The never ending stream of world news, economic, business and company developments with largely unknowable consequences, however, make business valuation an approximate art rather than a clear science. The measures here gauge only roughly -- whether the stock market as a whole is priced reasonably. My favorite is the Morningstar Market Valuation Graph below. Morningstar.Com Market Valuation Graph (Click to the Max. time period view of the chart.) Status: Valuation is 12% below fair value. Viewing the graph at the Max setting, it appears that if the market follows a typical, ragged, recovery pattern, prices could climb another 15% - 20% from here. About the indicator: This graph is a fundamental financial analysis / accounting calculation based on net present value calculations of long-term projected profits for the thousands of stocks Morningstar tracks. It is a basic check to see if the stock market pricing makes sense. S&P-500 to Book Value (Bloomberg.com) Status: The current market price-to-book value of about 2.06 is well below the typical historical market peak valuation ratio of approximately 3. At the pit of the 20082009 crash the ratio sank to 1.5. About the indicator: Book Value is the money you would get if you closed a business and sold off all of its physical plant and inventory. Its one of the most basic valuation tools for stocks. On its own it doesnt mean too much since valuations can be quite debatable. However, reasonable book value levels confirm that stocks are not wildly overpriced today and that room remains on the upside. Total Market Valuation vs. GNP (GuruFocus.com Free registration required. The linked page is a good primer on valuation.) See also Discounted Cash Flow Valuator for individual stocks Status: According to this ratio, at 90% the market is right at the upper bound of fairly valued. Using this
factor and interest rates, GuruFocus.com calculates that the market is likely to produce a below normal annual return of 4.2% going forward. About the Indicator: In a mildly famous 2001 Fortune magazine article Warren Buffet wrote that despite some limitations, the ratio of total stock market valuation to Gross National Product is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. At 55% stocks would a fantastic buy. At 110% it would be time to think seriously about selling . S&P-500 Price Earnings Ratio and S&P 500 Earnings (The link above is to www.multpl.com, courtesy of Josh Staiger). Source data available online courtesy of Robert Shiller and S&P) Status: If you judge by forward looking earnings, the SP 500 is now a bargain by historical standards. But, going by an average of 10-year past earnings, the S&P is still pricey. I side with the forward-looking view because the past decade has contained two very nasty recessions skewing the average. About the indicator: Intuitively, the ratio of a stock's price to the company's earnings should be the key objective tool for judging if a stock is properly valued and for comparing multiple stocks. High Price-to-Earnings ratios should make investors worry that a stock is overpriced. Likewise, low P/E ratios should help to flag bargains. Unfortunately, as indicated in this Mark Hulbert article, P/E ratios have negligible value in predicting either one-year or even 10-year stock price moves. As discussed in the Fed Model (below) my own statistical analysis does not find any validity in using P/E ratios for 6-month stock market analysis. The Fed Model (Wikipedia.org explanation) Source data for S&P Earnings and long interest rates made available courtesy of Robert Shiller. Status: Today you can read this measure as saying either that the market is overpriced or that it is underpriced. The interpretation mainly depends on how long an historical average of earnings you want to consider. (Given the current long T-Bond rate of 2.7%, and based on experience since 1960, a regression 2
Copyright 2012 Tom Tiedeman, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. This is research, not investment advice.
model predicts that the S&P 500 P/E should be approximately: P/E = 1/ (0.808 T +0.010) P/E = 1/ ( 0.808 (0.03) + 0.010) = 39!!!!!. The current S&P-500 P/E based on 10-year trailing earnings is roughly 21. About the indicator: This popular classic stock market valuation model starts from the simple premise that the earnings to price ratio (E/P) of basket of quality stocks like the S&P 500 index and the yield from long term quality bonds should be just about the same, with the stocks having a little higher return to reflect their higher inherent risk. This Mark Hulbert (MarketWatch.com) article says there is not much predictive value to the indicator. My own analysis finds no statistical link in the 6-month time frame between P/E ratios and the S&P-500 average. Value Line Dow Jones Annual Forecast Status: At todays (3/30/2012) 1,2481 level, the DJ-30 is amazingly close to Value Lines average price target of 12,900 for 2012. They were right on for 2011, predicting a flat year overall. For 2012 VL forecasts a probable range for the DJ-30 from 10,330 to 16,140. About the Indicator: At the close of every year since 1980, the Value Line Investment Survey has published a forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the coming year. The model, originally created by Samuel Eisenstadt, is a straight-forward statistical model with just 4 variables for the combined 30 Dow stocks: current DJ-30 price, earnings per share, dividends per share, and Treasury bond yields. In each case the values used are Value Lines staff forecasts of changes for the coming year. The forecasting results of this model have been impressive as discussed in this 2006 research paper. VL notes that considerable deviation from their forecast over the course of a year is to be expected.

Select to view: Overview Market Valuation Measures Economic Indicators Trader Signals - Fast Trader Signals Slow International View Econometric Models About This Forecast
Economic Indicators
Despite all of its semi-random craziness, eventually the stock market reflects corporate profits which in turn reflect the economy and especially interest rates. Usually the stock market nervously anticipates ( and over-reacts to) economic conditions by several months. (An old adage says that since 1948, the stock market has predicted 20 of the last 10 recessions.) The indicators here are my favorites for looking ahead for the economy 6 months to a year. Economic Cycles Research Institute U.S. Leading Indicator (Scroll down on the linked page) U.S. Leading Economic Indicator ( e-forecasting.com See bottom of linked page.) Philly Fed 6 Month Leading Indicator (YCharts.com) Conference Board Leading Economic Index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Status: Most composite leading economic indicators are up, predicting muted growth for the U.S. Highly regarded ECRI is warning of very slow economic growth. About the indicators: These are just a few of the groups that compile and aggregate statistics of several economic factors that tend to lead the economy both up and down. Stock market performance is typically part of the group of measures that makes up a leading economic indicator, so by definition, that part of the leading indicator cannot lead the stock market. Other parts of a LEI, however, can lead the stock market. Changes and directions of the leading economic indicators are worth paying attention to. As pictured below, there is a strong long term linkage between composite leading indicators and periods of recession.
Anxious Index for Recession Probability (Philadelphia Fed. xls file) Status: The gurus on economics have eased off their fears of a near-term recession. A panel of 54 economists polled by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve sees about a 13% chance of another recession in the coming half year, down from last Septembers 20% level. Interestingly, at the you-can-bet-on-anything-site Intrade.com on 5/18/2012 betting agreed, putting a 18% probability on a U.S. recession in 2012, way down from a 42% probability back at the end of October. (Next Anxious Index release August10.) About the indicator: This article by David Leonhardt in the NY Times in February, 2008 coined the popular name for this index. The noted this Survey of Professional Forecasters maintained by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve hasn't missed calling a recession or called a false positive in all the years since 1968 when it was started. This Anxious Index is the successor to the earlier Livingston Index a personal project of a Philadelphia journalist. Effective Federal Funds Rate (from St. Louis Federal Reserve) Status: The Fed is charging banks next to nothing, less to borrow than the inflation rate. In essence the Fed is paying banks to borrow! Eventually rate cuts will stimulate the economy. But, because of lag times, for now it remains a contrary reminder of just how worried they are at the Fed About the indicator: The Federal Reserve largely
controls interest rates. Interest rates largely determine business profitability. And profitability controls the stock market. Enough said. MarketWatch.com forecast of interest rates Probability of Recession Predicted by Interest Rate Spread (NY Federal Reserve Go to linked page or use your browser zoom on the chart below.)
beating consensus. The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three-month window. The weights of economic indicators are derived from relative high-frequency spot FX impacts of 1 standard deviation data surprises. The indices also employ a time decay function to replicate the limited memory of markets. If an economic forecast is actually objective, (debatable) then any deviations from the forecast should, theoretically, be random This indicator tracks the actual positive and negative deviations that occur in the Bloomberg surveys of economists and clearly shows that economic surprises are not random and follow definite trends. The bottom line is that this indicator tracks the sentiments of economic forecasters. To my eyes, it appears that the chart is actually rather cyclic, with a distinct drop-off at roughly October to November of each year. Long Treasury Bond vs Discount Rate (InvestmentTools.com) Status: As the subprime mortgage financial panic and subsequent recession hit, the Fed dramatically lowered short term lending rates to near-zero, creating a major stimulus to try to pump up the economy. The difference between the short and long rates is seldom greater than it is now. About the indicator: Interest rates are a prime determinant of profitability and of economic activity. This is a major long term telltale of where the market will go next. Long-term interest rates have been falling almost steadily since 1980, corresponding with overall stock market growth over the same period. Federal Reserve actions moving the discount rate, however, are a primary factor in short-term business profits and therefore stock market prices. For now the big question is when will the Federal Reserve raise rates? Unfortunately, the flip side of this is that low rates like we now have are a direct statement that the Fed remains deeply worried about the economy. TED Spread (StockCharts.com) Status: After 6 months of steady rise, the TED spread started to fall in January. Good. Despite this, recent ups and downs of the TED spread have all been mild in comparison to the world-wide financial panic that ran from late 2007 to early 2009. The interest rate for banks lending to one another, LIBOR ) is climbing slightly, but overall it is fairly low. Major banks do not seem to be seriously worried about other banks failing in the near future. About the indicator: Credit markets only become interesting when they fall apart. Lack of credit then brings the economy to an abrupt stop. This indicator tracks the difference between the 3-month Treasury rate and the 3-month LIBOR -- the interest rate at which banks loan to one another. Normally these two banking insider rates should be close.
Status: With short term interest rates near zero, this indicator says that there is a negligible 4% probability of being in recession next November. About the indicator: When the Federal Reserve raises short term interest rates high enough the economy quiets down -- and possibly goes into recession. When the Fed lowers interest rates it supplies a major economic stimulus. This well documented indicator from the New York Federal Reserve is an econometric model of the probability of economic recession based on the difference between short term interest rates and the rate on the 10-year Treasury Note. Raw data Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (Bloomberg.com chart) Change to the 5 year view on the interactive chart in order to gain a longer term perspective.) Status: This leading index has topped and is dropping sharply. Its fall last April was over a month ahead of the markets actual tailspin. Corporate profit growth is expected to be weak this quarter. About the Indicator: The stock market reacts strongly to unexpected news. This indicator is new to me, but there might just be a chance that this leads the market. The Bloomberg.com description of the chart says: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises (actual releases vs. Bloomberg survey median). A positive reading of the Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance
As the credit crisis started to hit in mid October, 2008 the banking panic froze the credit markets and caused the LIBOR to skyrocket despite falling Treasury rates. The TED spread had never been higher. Now, the situation has calmed tremendously. Bond spreads also continue to improve with continuing declines in perceived risk. Money Supply (M1 y/y Federal Reserve) (MZM y/y Federal Reserve) Status: Money expansion remains high. About the Indicator: The economic theory is that increasing the money supply should raise asset prices and lower interest rates. Im not an economist so Ill avoid this debate. Building Permits and Housing Starts (St. Louis Federal Reserve) Status: They may be slowly starting to move up from the pits, but home building is still at depression levels. About the indicator: Housing and construction are important economic indicators, usually leading the stock market by about a year. Housing construction itself is just about 2% of the economy, but when all related factors such as new appliance purchases housing constitutes a larger slice. These linked charts from the St. Louis Federal Reserve show clearly that if you have several years of over-building then payback in the form of a dead market for new construction must eventually follow. How likely is another housing bubble to start up soon? According to this article by Robert Shiller (NY Times, free subscription required), Housing Bubbles Are Few and Far Between. Dollar Index (MarketWatch.com) Dollar Index (StockCharts.com) Status: Financial fears from Europe drove the Dollar up beginning in early 2011. The U.S. MUST reduce its balance of payment deficit, (Paul Krugman, NYTimes, 10/3/2011) and the main way available is with a weaker dollar. The problem is that other countries dont want to lose their competitive edge so they are inflating their currencies as well. About the indicator: Watch the dollar slide as Steven Pearlstein wrote in the Washington Post (4/24/2011) the long decline of the Dollar is both inevitable and economically desirable. Or, as Cristina Romer dared to write the truth that must not be spoken in this (5/22/2011) NY Times piece: in a depressed economy, it isnt so clear that a strong dollar is desirable. The gradual slide of the dollar is good for the stock market and rebalancing the U.S. economy, but it can be bad for your personal wealth if all your wealth is held in dollars. The flow of dollars from the U.S. is at flood stage. To try to bring the U.S. balance of payments at least a little bit under control the Bush administration set the value of the U.S. dollar on a big long slide while pretending in
public ("Strong Dollar" ) that it had nothing to do with the slide. The Obama administration continues that policy, as it must. The only alternative means to restore some semblance of a trade balance would have been to cut use of foreign oil or resurrect the old strong array of trade barriers and tariffs. The primary difficulty in reducing the value of the Dollar is that other countries will also inflate their currencies in order to maintain their relative trading advantage. The race to the bottom for world currencies is now at high pitch as illustrated by this Bloomberg.com story on the October, 2010 G20 meeting. Household Net Worth (Federal Reserve, see Line 42) Status: Improving overall, but still down $7 trillion from 2007! Thanks mainly to the rebounding stock market, Americans have gained back more than half of the wealth lost during the Great Recession, but the capitulation of the housing market sent all the rest of the wealth off to money heaven. (MarketWatch.com commentary by Rex Nutting) Its still no time to celebrate a successful economic recovery; and its no surprise that Treasury and the Fed are still doing everything possible to block further drops in house prices and to increase business profitability by reducing borrowing costs. Economists are concluding that all the intervention has helped to avert deflation (Bloomberg) and total economic destruction. But, the economy is still far from normal. About the indicator: Net worth is the score that counts. Personal wealth fell by an incredible 18 trillion dollars during the Great Recession, equivalent to a full year of GDP, and it could have been much worse. All that would have been needed for a complete collapse would have been for cascading bank, business and personal wealth failures to get rolling in a domino sequence as they did in the Great Depression. The couple of trillion dollars that the Government threw down as part of the TARP and stimulus efforts looks like a smart investment if it saved us from what could have been another ten or twenty trillion dollars of damage. U.S. Federal Deficit (St. Louis Federal Reserve) Status: Watch the knife fall! They are going to have to shift the axis on the graph because the deficit will never have been as bad as it is going to be! This 5/1/2011 article by Lori Montgomery (Washington Post, free subscription required) is the best summary of the deficit problem that I have read recently. About the indicator: A lot of investors make a lot of noise about the deficit, but the deficit does not correlate very well with changes in the stock market. Still, fear of the rising deficit has stopped any chance of further stimulus from Congress. So a very slow and faltering recovery is almost certain.
U.S. Balance of Payments (Federal Reserve link) Status: The balance of payments just keeps getting worse. About the indicator: The worsening Balance of Payments probably means little in the short term, but is a major negative long term problem for the U.S. The persistent balance of payments deficit is the central issue in the current round of competitive currency devaluations underway around the world. (WashingtonPost.com, free subscription required) Shipping & Transportation Sector Strength Baltic Dry Index BDI (StockCharts.com) HARPEX (Harper Peterson Container shipping index) Transportation Stocks USDOT Transportation Services Index Status: Taking a long term view, the USDOT Transportation Services Index (a fairly good leading economic indicator) points to continuing growth. Shipping rates appear to have bottomed, but their continuing weakness, signals a slow recovery. Container shipping rates covered by the HARPEX more closely related to expectations of retailers remain below historically-average levels. The Dow Jones Transportation Index (StockCharts.com) took a bad hit this summer like most everything else, but has been recovering. About the indicator: Shipping rates and pricing of transportation industry stocks are much followed and basically believable long-lead economic indicators. The reasoning is simple; if a lot of goods are being shipped then the economy must be improving. The Dow Theory (Wikipedia), for example, one of the oldest and most followed technical indicators is based on the relative strength of the Dow Jones Industrial Average versus the Dow Jones Transportation Index. The Baltic Dry Index (Wikipedia), The Best Economic Indicator You've Never Heard of tracks the cost of moving materials by sea. A higher value indicates rising shipping levels and therefore points to economic expansion. This Wall Street Journal article and this Bloomberg article (1/10/2011) say that the Baltic Dry Index and most other shipping indexes may give a fuzzy indication of world economic activity this year because of an unusually large number of new ships this year. Inflation Rate (Consumer Price Index, Rate of change, Federal Reserve) Status: The Federal Reserve has finally set an inflation goal of 2%. Excellent! It is pretty hard to get scared about the inflation boogeyman after you see this graph. This is about as low as inflation has been in our lifetimes. In the U.S. and other developed economies inflation is very low deflation still remains the greater worry. If U.S. inflation resumes, dont worry until it reaches 4% annually (see below). The inflation situation is quite different in developing economies (MSN Jim Jubak 1/21/2011) where inflation is already at worrisome levels. How is it that developing nations can have high
inflation while the Dollar is crashing? The falling Dollar should be causing U.S. inflation to skyrocket. The answer is that developing nations are trying to maintain their favorable trade balances by inflating their currencies faster than we sink ours. About the indicator: High interest rates whether caused by inflation or central bank policy tend to precipitate stock market declines and recessions. As discussed in this Mark Hulbert MarketWatch.com article, (1/18/2011) rates of inflation greater than 4% tend to coincide with poor market performance. (Chart below is from Mark Hulbert article.)
S&P 500s average When trailing 12-month monthly return since inflation is... 1871 is... Below 0 0.61% Between 0% and 1% 0.50% Between 1% and 2% 0.40% Between 2% and 3% 0.96% Between 3% and 4% 0.53% Between 4% and 5% -0.23% Above 5% -0.05% % of months falling into this category 28% 5% 13% 15% 10% 6% 22%
Current National Financial Activity Index (CFNAI) (Source: Chicago Federal Reserve) Status: This index has hovered around zero for nearly 2 years now, more evidence of the Second Great Contraction. This expects economic growth to stagnate for the next couple of months which, at least, is a lot better than truly rotten. About the Indicator: The Current National Financial Activity Index is a weighted measure of total national business activity compiled monthly and based on 85 economic indicators. Though developed primarily as a tool for forecasting inflation, some believe that it is a better indicator than GDP of short term actual economic performance.
GDP: Potential GDP vs. Real GDP (Data link at Federal Reserve )
quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990. The Survey of Professional Forecasters' web page offers the actual releases, documentation, mean and median forecasts of all the respondents as well as the individual responses from each economist. The individual responses are kept confidential by using identification numbers. Commodity Research Bureau Index (InvestmentTools.com) (CRB site chart) Status The CRB Index has been fairly stable so far this year. No one likes higher gas prices, but rising gas prices generally indicate that people are driving more a good sign. About the Indicator: If the stuff we make things with costs more, thats probably a good sign that at least people are trying to make things. The Commodities Research Bureau (CRB) Index (Wikipedia description) represents a market basket of futures prices for major world commodities. According to CRB: The
commodities used are in most cases either raw materials or products close to the initial production stage which, as a result of daily trading in fairly large volume of standardization qualities, are particularly sensitive to factors affecting current and future economic forces and conditions. Highly fabricated commodities are not included for two reasons: (1) they embody relatively large fixed costs which fact causes them to react less quickly to changes in market conditions; and (2) they are less important as price determinants than the more basic commodities which are used throughout the producing economy. The CRB Index measure is further influenced by the fact that it is measured in U.S. Dollars so a fall in the Dollar will automatically make it appear that world commodity prices have shot up.
(Use your viewers magnification/zoom setting to be able to read the graph. No, you really should do it the gap shown in the graph is amazing.) Status: Four years later, inflation-adjusted GDP is just getting back to where it was in 2007- 2008. It is still far below potential providing room for significant growth. About the indicator: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office maintains a database and econometric model of Potential GDP which is the GDP that could result if the workforce was fully employed. The graph above shows both Real GDP and Potential GDP, all in constant chained 2005 dollars. If you really zoom-in on the graph you will see that since the late 1940s periods where the economy is booming and Real GDP is higher than Potential GDP tend to end badly the Federal Reserve takes away the punch bowl and the party ends with a crashing stock market followed by a recession. Currently the opposite situation exists and the Fed will continue to do all that is possible to get the economy performing better. Professional Economists Survey of Forecasts for Inflation, GDP, Unemployment, and Long Term S&P 500 Gains and Cong. Budget Office Economic Outlook Status: The 1st quarter 2012 forecasts by a survey of professional economists are weaker than last quarter: weak GDP gains (2.3% annual rate for 2012,); modest inflation (2% headline for 2012); continuing high unemployment (8.4%, an improvement, and only going down to 8.1% by 2013) and normal 10-year average expected gains for the S&P 500 (6.8%), but down from the previous survey. All of which point to continuing modest economic growth. The high lingering unemployment is tough for people, but has little relation to near term stock market moves. The CBO forecast has similar conclusions. About the indicator: Next release May 10. The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest
Corporate Profits (line 17) Undistributed Corporate Profits (line 21) (Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarterly Gross Domestic Income) S&P 500 Earnings (data courtesy Robert Shiller, site hosted by Josh Staigner) Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey of Professional Forecasters Status: Corporate profits are nearly back to prerecession levels. Undistributed profits are back up as well there is corporate money still on the sidelines. Now that profits have returned, the forecasted annual rates of profit growth are down to normal levels. About the Indicator: Rising corporate profits is what stock market investing is all about. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis posts quarterly results of U.S. economic performance. Here is a primer on the BEA National Income and Product Account data. 8
Six-Month Stock Market Indicators C

Select to view: Overview Market Valuation Measures Economic Indicators Trader Signals - Fast Trader Signals - Slow International View Econometric Models About This Forecast
Trader Signals Fast (well, relatively fast)
None of these short-term tell tales are part of my 6month forecasting model. At best they may help to fine tune a buying or selling opportunity. (i.e. Buy the dip.) Any of my trend guesses here will probably be out of date by the time you read this. For the part-time investor trend following is dangerous you enter the trend too late and miss most of the gains. Then the inevitable crash happens before you can react in time. Using short term trading indicators is a lot like playing a carnival game it looks so simple, but somehow you always lose. But, if you want to look at what is likely for the next couple of months, I like the first two of these indicators best.
uptrend. Longer term investors will mainly pay attention to the Weekly view lower on the page Consumer versus Cyclical Stocks (StockCharts.com) Status: Cyclical stocks are relatively weak not particularly encouraging. About this indicator: In this MSN MoneyCentral article (11/18/2011) Anthony Mirhaydari makes a case that clylical stocks beating consumer staples is a sign of a bull market and vice versa Bonds versus Stocks Status: Relative to stocks, the bond index is super meaning stocks are tanking. This indicator says to shift to Treasuries, or at least get out of stocks for a while. About this Indicator: In theory, over the long haul holding bonds should give about the same yield as holding stocks. This chart shows how a bond fund is faring against a stock fund. % Stocks Trading Above 50-Day Average
(StockCharts.com) Broader Market (Barchart.com covers
Follow What Happens in the Real World

Status: I got slammed by the recession that didnt happen from the Greek default. I trusted my model too much and was seriously leveraged. Recovering since October, but the market has faltered in April.
approximately 5,000 stocks) Status: Low and falling but probably near a bottom. Almost time to buy. About the indicator: This is a very short term indicator for whether the market is overbought or oversold. The worry point is above 80%. The turn-around point is at around 20% to 30%. MACD S&P 500: Moving Index Average Convergence / Divergence Status: The fast moving average is below the slow average bad. About this Indicator: Fidelity Investments has a good article on back- testing various MACD strategies here. After all is said and done, Im afraid that all of it sounds like both mumbo and jumbo. Moving averages are plots of the arithmetic or exponential mean of prices for some period of time in the past. The one shown in the link is the S&P 500, the 10
NYSE New Highs minus New Lows (StockCharts.com) Status: The Daily chart has gone from horizontal to up
good. About the indicator: I like this short term indicator of the broad stock market as it is really easy to read, changes infrequently, and tends to lead the market averages. A bullish signal occurs when the ratio is in an
most commonly followed average for MACD charts. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is a plot of two moving averages; a slow moving average that includes more days than the second fast average. A positive divergence occurs when the fast average has risen above the level of the slow average. I am not really a big fan of these moving averages. If you use very long time periods for your MACD then it generates buy and sell signals too late to be of real value. Using shorter periods for your MACD graph generates many more false buy and sell signals. NYSE Daily - Weekly Advance Decline Line (StockCharts.com) Status: Turning up. Ready for some good news. About the indicator: Often market breadth (A simple ratio of how many stocks go up vs. down.) leads actual swings of index prices. These charts are only for traders or for picking an auspicious moment to buy or sell. The initial view of this short term indicator is daily Advances-Declines -- Do a good few days follow a bad few days or what? Reset the chart to see a weekly view, again using the line view Type rather than the "candlestick: view. Every few weeks the market tends to get overextended creating a relatively good time to trade. Buy when the weekly line has plummeted and starts to rise; sell when it hits a dangerous peak and turns down. VIX - Implied Market Volatility (StockCharts.com.) Status: Volatility has been dropping since October a favorable sign. But, at a 54-month low it has gotten low enough to signal a probable market turn for the worse. About the indicator: The CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) Volatility Index (VIX) measures market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices. According to the CBOE "since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility". When the VIX shoots up you are in the midst of a crisis - if you didn't know that already from the rapidly crashing stock market. In this August, 2011 MarketWatch.com article Mark Hulbert describes a very simple VIX strategy: avoid the stock market for the coming month if the VIX reading is above, say, 20 which he notes is approximately the median VIX level for the last two decades. Hopefully the VIX signal will come early enough to help avoid developing market crashes. The negative side is that it will also lead to missing sharp market rebounds. For example, following it would have led to missing nearly the entire market rebound from the crash of the winter of 2008-2009, Historically, this VIX strategy performs slightly better than a buy-and-hold strategy.
months a risk off attitude. Small have been doing best. Emerging markets have been the weakest link About the indicator: The Dow-30 and the S&P-500 are what most people usually thing of as 'The Stock Market.' Take a look at some of these other long term graphs. I prefer: Value Line Arithmetic Index (VAY) (My preferred stock market index. Status: The long fearful summer appears to be finally over. A low was reached in December and it has grown considerably since then. About the indicator: Taking a many-year view, this remarkably consistent index appears to have nearly caught up with its long term trend -- making the slingshot rebound from the crash of 2008-2009 weaker The Value Line Arithmetic Average includes the top 1700 companies in the U.S. -- all weighted equally. (Similar equal weight ETFs are EWRI and RSP) Historically, the arithmetic index it has had an amazingly consistent growth pattern, much steadier than the Dow 30, S&P 500, or NASDAQ Composite indices. Because of the equal weighting, portfolio rebalancing is built-in. As a result, besides being more predictable, the equal weight index will regularly outperform a conventional index of the same stocks. Until recently it was not possible to buy an equal weight EFT, but now a number of equal-weight index fund ETFs such as EWRI and RSP have been introduced. They have only been around a few months, but so far they appear to have very similar tracks to the Value Line Arithmetic Index. Good news! EEM The MSCI Emerging Markets Fund represents valuations of the markets that have the greatest potential for growth. Emerging markets have been at a plateau since early 2010. Profits need to grow, but this average still is well below trend. A new equal weight emerging market ETF is EWEM.
Viewing Multiple Stock Markets (Click to the maximum time frame view) Status: Everything seems to be going up for the past 6 Copyright 2012 Tom Tiedeman, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. This is research, not investment advice. 11

Trader Signals Slow Moving
Several of these slow moving trading indicators may seem far-fetched, irrational or bizarre. None the less, a few are probably the most helpful market timing tools for a part-time investor. The old adage of Sell in May leads the pack with a documented track record going back several hundred years. The Second Great Contraction (link to This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly at Amazon.com) Status: The world still teeters at the edge of an economic abyss that threatens to come from credit disruption. The U.S. and the rest of the world are only mid-way through the world-wide economic debt collapse that began in 2007. Typically, economic pains from credit destruction last much longer than ordinary recessions (Ezra Klein, Washington Post 10/9/2011) . Slow growth is the best that can be expected for years to come. (IMF) Risk remains that cascading debt defaults, especially from sovereign debt collapse in Europe, can cascade into a world-wide economic collapse. Unfortunately, mistakes by any number of fairly independent players still can bring on the nightmare at most any time. About the indicator: Reinhart and Rogoff powerfully demonstrate in This Time is Different the current economic trauma is more like the Great Depression than any of the comparatively short-lived recessions that occurred since then. The resolution of our Second Great Contraction, as Rogoff calls it, will most probably take several more years. Because of government-created incredibly low interest rates, the worst may already be over for stocks. Since borrowing costs will remain abnormally low for years, corporate profits may remain strong despite continuing economic pain. This is not a market for the faint of heart, but it may also be seen as the early stages of a tremendous long term growth market.
Sell in May Indicator Status: It looks like the summer downside may have kicked in early. About the indicator: If you had to pick just a single stock market timing signal, this old and crazy-seeming one might well be the best. Statistically, performance of stock markets worldwide during the summer months is not as good as during the winter. When the market crashes it usually is during September and October. The summer - winter trading pattern has been shown to occur in many markets world wide for the past several hundred years. This Mark Hulbert article from MarketWatch.com cites a definitive study showing that the pattern has been valid for at least 317 years in the U.K. This MarketWatch column by Sy Harding summarizes his variant on the approach which includes also being invested on holidays. My own analyses show that the Sell in May or Halloween effect is greatest when the economy is heading into a recession. On the other hand, when coming out of a recession the effects of a rising economy overpower the semiannual pattern. According to a Charles Schwab report (5/14/2012) there appears to be a distinct split among sectors in seasonality as shown in the table below.
Investor Sentiment (AAII Investor Sentiment Guide) (Barrons.com Investor Sentiment page) Status: Some people pay serious attention to these indicators. I dont. About the Indicator: Investor sentiment tends to be a contrarian indicator. When there are vastly more Bulls Copyright 2012 Tom Tiedeman, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. This is research, not investment advice. 12
than Bears, it is time to worry! When you have a bad sinking feeling in your gut, you probably should be a buyer of stocks. Retail investors follow trends, but they dont lead them. As a result, they are usually late to the party. When too many people get to any party, the police usually come to bust it up. Peaks in investor sentiment usually lead the market by a few months. As Brett Arends, a writer for the Wall Street Journal notes in this MSN article on Why Market Timing Works our feelings are terrible guides. The American Association of Individual Investors publishes a weekly survey of member sentiment (bullish / bearish / neutral. According to AAII, the current historical averages are bullish 39% (standard deviation of 10.7 percentage points), neutral 31% (standard deviation of 9 percentage points) and bearish 30% (standard deviation of 10 percentage points). This article at the AAII website covers a statistical analysis that verifies the sentiment survey as a solid contrarian indicator: danger lies ahead if investors get too bullish. Fourth Year of the Preidential Election Cycle (Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch.com) 3rd Year of the Presidential Cycle (Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch.com) 3rd article by Hulbert. Status: It depends which stock market average is reviewed and for what historical period, but overall, the fourth year of the presidential cycle tends to produce positive, but modest stock market returns equal to or less than average. But, the fact that this year an incumbent is running may help with typical gains in the 9% range. (Howard Gold, MarketWatch 11/11/11) The fact that we are in a major long term financial crisis, however, probably trumps this cyclic indicator as the Federal Reserve still is pushing the economy up with historically low interest rates. About the Indicator: According to Mark Hulbert's statistical calculations of the Dow Jones Industrials since 1896 there is statistical validity at the 95% confidence level that year 3 of the presidential election cycle yields outsize gains. Year 4 should also produce some gains. Year 2 typically yields nearly zero.
were 9% in the next six months versus only 6% gains when Index value was ABOVE the moving average. At those times when the Index was below its 200-day moving average it was right 2 out of 7 times not very good. My conclusion: Most of the time (80%) this indicator gives a positive reading which has little predictive value, but in the few instances when the Index is significantly below the moving average, a market panic is probably in full swing and you should be starting to think about buying again!
Stock Market Slow Moving Average (StockCharts.com 12 month SP-500 moving average) Status: The S&P is still above its slow moving average. Falling below that line would be a bearish indication to many investors. About the indicator: In my analysis, the moving average indicator had a poor track record for my favorite market average, the Value Line Arithmetic Average Index, in the years between 1985 and 2010 it was usually better to bet against the long term moving average indicator! Since 1985 at my 6-month decision points (October and May) where the Index price was BELOW the 200-day moving average the average gains Copyright 2012 Tom Tiedeman, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. This is research, not investment advice. 13
% Stocks Trading Above 200-Day Moving Average (stockcharts.com covers S&P-500 stock) Status: The S&P 500 is 51% and falling fast from an overbought 86%. The knife is still falling. When it gets to 30% or 20% the indicator signals a buy. About the indicator: As a general rule, when a stock's price is above its 200-day moving average, the stock has been in a long-term price rise. So, an increasing percentage of stocks priced above their 200-day moving average is generally a good sign. However, when 80% to 90% of stocks are trading above their averages it is usually a signal that euphoria has gotten out of hand and a market correction is due. Similarly, when only 20% to 30% of stocks are trading above average, a sharp bullish upswing becomes very likely. NYSE Advance -Decline Line (cumulative) (Bloomberg.com, Use the 5 year view) Status: Using the 5-year view, maybe a large rounded top is forming? Or not. Depends how you squint. ;o) About the indicator: The indicator is a cumulative count of advances on the NYSE minus declines since 1996. Click to the 5-year view. This good MID-TERM indicator tends to form a rounded top before falling as part of a broad Bear Market TomTs Post - 2000 Anomaly Status: Since the crash of 2000, the bigger and better known U.S. stocks in the Dow 30 and the S&P 500 have fared worse than the run of the mill stocks that dominate the NASDAQ composite, or especially, the Value Line Arithmetic Index. That is different than previous decades when the averages followed more similar tracks. About the indicator: As shown in this Yahoo.com chart reproduced below, something strange has happened in the U.S. stock market since the crash of 2000. From 1984 through the S&P 500 (red), the NASDAQ (green) and the Value Line Arithmetic Index followed very similar paths. In the DotCom bubble, NASDAQ shot up, and the S&P500 rose appreciably, but the Value Line was remarkably untouched. Since the crash the popular stocks of the S&P500 and the NASDAQ have floundered while the Value Line has gone on almost undeterred. Does this signify a massive shift in markets? Or, is this actually a massive negative stock market bubble that will soon send the popular market averages soaring as retail investors flock back to stocks?
Rolling 10-year S&P 500 Total Return (Article by Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money Central) Status: This chart practically guarantees a multi-year significant increase in stock investor enthusiasm, with a big boost over the next year or so, that corresponds to the 10-year anniversary of the pit of the Dot Com market crash. Read below for the reason.
About the Indicator: Most financial advisors tell their clients to take a long term view of owning stocks. Thats what the chart above shows 10-year rolling returns of the S&P 500. Right now the picture implies that we have gone through a terrible decade of stock performance, so now things most likely will get better. Thats clearly what typically happens. But, this simpleseeming chart is largely an illusion. Ten years to most people is what long-term investing means. (The lazy Law of Round Numbers leads people to choose 10 years as opposed to something irregular like 17 years.) Because we already know what happened 10 years ago (an historic boom followed by a terrible crash), we already know that in a couple of years this chart will show a much rosier picture. (Comparing the current market to the peak of the Dot Com bubble looks a lot worse that comparing it to the low point of the ensuing crash.) As a result there is an incredibly high probability that for several years to come, thousands of financial advisors will be showing their clients that the stock market actually gives excellent long-term rewards! A gradual, but long-running increase of investor enthusiasm is almost certain. For the simple reason that long-term means 10 years to most people!
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International View
I.M.F. World Economic Outlook Update for World 4/2012 Status: IMF sees a slowing of growth for the next couple of years: just 1.1% for the U.S., next to nothing for Europe and an uninspiring 4.7% for the globe as a whole. This is a disappointment. About the indicator: All you have ever read about World growth trends becomes clear in this customizable chart from the International Monetary Fund. Going back to 1980 you can see the development of major regions of the world and projections for the future -- all in constant currency units. (The zoom feature is super! Also, at the very bottom of the chart the button "Play Time" runs an animated history of world growth patterns.) The 'take home' from this chart is that for the past several decades the rest of the world has been playing catch up with the developed economies. As a result, other economies have consistently been growing at faster rates than ours. For an investor growth RATE is what counts. Sovereign Public Debt Ratio (Wikipedia) Status: U.S. debt equals 102% of GDP and is climbing fast. This if well above the world average level of between About the indicator: This chart ranks nations by their Debt-to-GDP ratios. The worst off states serve as bell weathers for the others. CIA raw data
The world keeps getting smaller. For the next several decades most of the best market investment opportunities probably lie outside the U.S. The reason is simple: it is easier to increase wealth in percentage terms if you are poor rather than wealthy. And percentage growth is what investing for profit is all about. U.S. growth will probably average 2% to 4% for the next decade while China will probably have growth in the 8% to 10% range 3 to 4 times higher! Case in point: U.S. housing construction is struggling to get back to the 1 million units per year level. China, on the other hand, has just announced plans for a crash program to build an additional 10 million housing units for each of the next several years. Commodity prices may well skyrocket. Multinationals based in the U.S. may well perform much better than the overall U.S. economy. The long overdue growth of emerging nations creates a double sided situation. On side provides immense growth opportunities for business, and the low cost of overseas labor means U.S. inflation probably will be contained for many years. The other side of the situation constrains U.S. worker incomes it is hard for many working people to seek higher incomes when they are directly competing against overseas workers making 1/10th as much money. It is easy to sit back and be philosophical about all of this until your particular field is hit with devastating competition that destroys your business and your life. Believe me, I know. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Status: OECD predicts spotty world-wide economic growth with some recessions. The index for the U.S. points to slightly negative growth. About the indicator: There are many reasons to take international comparisons with a heaping tablespoon of salt I can speak from personal experience having prepared some international statistical publications. A number of countries consider economic data to be state secrets and the data they provide to international organizations may have little to do with reality. None the less, it is worthwhile checking these estimates now and then. The rates of change are what count.
15
U.S. Versus International Focus (Click to the 5 year view.) Status: For the past few months emerging markets have started to catch up. They had fallen much more than the U.S. in the second half of 2011. Emerging market long term GDP growth rates are again far ahead of the U.S. and other developed countries. About the indicator: The link is to a plot of U.S. stocks (the SP-500 index) versus a few emerging market favorite ETFs. Big Mac Index(2012) Big Mac Index (2010) (Economist.com, subscription required) Status: Is the Argentine government manipulating the countrys ranking in the Big Mac Index? Maybe so according to the NY Times last November and the Washington Post this May (yglesias). It appears that the Argentine government has strong armed McDonalds to keep the Big Mac price artificially low in order to make the Peso appear stronger than it really is. It is all smoke and mirrors, of course the stores just push other burgers and dont show the Big Mac on their actual menus. This indicator doesn't say anything about the stock market. I just think it is fun! The Economist says the chart shows that the Chinese Yuan and several other Asian currencies are drastically undervalued -- great bargains on Big Macs in Asia! On the other side of the chart, if you are in Switzerland it sure looks like you should learn to enjoy small portions of local cheese -$6.78 for a Big Mac! Gimme a break!
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Six-Month Stock Market Indicators Tom Ts Stock Market Forecast

Select to view: Overview Market Valuation Measures Economic Indicators Trader Signals - Fast Trader Signals Slow International View Econometric Models
Econometric Models
from May was rosy, and the market proceeded to tank. My forecast from May, 2002 to November 2010 was right on target (13% gain forecasted and 12% actual gain), and the last years November to May forecast was for 20% gain, matched by an actual 20% gain in the Value Line Arithmetic Index. . Here are longer term performance numbers. In real world testing, my models appear to point to the basic direction of U.S. stock markets most of the time -- which is their purpose.
Anyone forecasting stock prices deserves your skepticism. Monkeys (trained or not) often beat both forecasters and investment managers. Unfortunately for this October update, most of the published forecasts I could find were New Years predictions and so are out of date. (I find it bizarre that people tend to make forecasts at the turn of the year rather than any other time. It must be just another herd-based round number phenomena.) Countless stock market forecasts are posted by groups and individuals, but there is seldom much performance evidence given to prove their credibility. Some forecasts may be wacky like those based on astrology. Other forecasts actually may be brilliant, but no track record is provided. A few forecasts, however, do have enough of an experience basis so that they can be tested and have some credibility. I have my own econometric forecasting models and have been evaluating them since 2007 so far, with good results. (See next page) I have also included links to a few other models that appear to me to have some merit. Models can be very helpful, but, do not stake your fortune on any of these models including mine.
Value Line 3-5 Year Appreciation Potential Status: As of the end of the year, the VL potential appreciation for the next 3-5 years was 75%. That is a little better than average historically. About the Indicator: As it has for many years, each week the Value Line Investment Survey announces an estimate of the three to five year median appreciation potential for the 1700 stocks they track. The lowest recent appreciation estimate was 35% at the previous market high on 7/13/2007. The highest appreciation potential recorded was 185% at the panic market low of 3/9/2009.
Value Line Dow Jones Annual Forecast Status: See discussion as part of Market Valuation Measures. . Other Econometric Stock Market Models . Mark Hulberts 3/16/2012 update on Sam Eisenstadts model reported a forecast of 8.4% gains for the S&P 500 by from March to the end of August, 2012.. In an earlier update Norman Fosbacks model was reported as anticipating a 17% market gain over the next 12 months. CNN 2012 Survey Status: The consensus forecast of investment strategists for 2011 was for a 7% gain, taking the S&P 500 average to 1351 by the close of 2012. (As of midFebruary the S&P 500 had already met the estimate at 1,361). Last year not a single respondent predicted the slight yearly decline that actually occurred. . About the Indicator: In January 2012 CNN Money surveyed 36 investment strategists and money 17
My statistical models see a bright half-year ahead for the stock market: 10% to 15% gains for the Value Line Arithmetic Average (VAY) between October 31 and June 1, 2012. (Actually, the raw prediction is for a 20% gain, but I am discounting that as probably unrealistic.) There is a greater than 95% probability of at least breaking even. The odds are roughly 50-50 that a temporary correction of at least 8% will occur at some point before June so, the recession recovery road ahead will probably be bouncy. My econometric models of the stock market are based on forecasting the Value Line Arithmetic Average which tracks the 1700 largest U.S. companies and accounts for 95% of U.S. industry. The models focus on a few fundamental economic statistics that tend to foretell stock market moves. How good are they? The forecast
managers. Here are the numbers.. Most of these forecasts appear to be based on some sort of model. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey of Professional Economists 10-Year S&P 500 Forecast Status: For 2012 the median estimate in the survey of economists is for a 6.8% annual appreciation rate for the S&P 500 for the coming decade. About the indicator: The forecasts for the Survey of Professional Forecasters are provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The quarterly survey, formerly conducted by the American Statistical Association (ASA) and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), began in 1968:Q4 and was taken over by the Philadelphia Fed in 1990:Q2. The measure here STOCK10 includes percentage point forecasts for the annual average rate of return to equities (S&P 500) over the next 10 years. While this indicator is a survey rather than an econometric model, it is reasonable to expect that numerous survey responses by professional economists are based on independent econometric models. I have not made an analysis if this indicator has any relationship at all to stock market moves in future 6month periods.
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Select to view: Overview Market Valuation Measures Economic Indicators Trader Signals - Fast Trader Signals Slow International View Econometric Models
My Econometric Models Past Performance Probability of Breaking Even

This model estimates the likelihood that the stock market will at least break even in the coming half year. A low probability (say, below 0.60) of break-even means there is a very good chance the market will lose money, while a high probability (between .80 and 1.0) implies that it is highly likely the market will rise in price over the next half year.
Predicted vs. Actual Gain

This chart presents the half-year gains predicted by the model compared with the gains that actually followed
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Tom Ts Stock Market Forecast
About This Forecast
Since 2007 I have been testing in real time -- basic econometric models of the stock market that I have developed. The models give a simplified view of how stocks behave based on a few key economic statistics. This document is my way of tracking the performance of my models hopefully while keeping my eyes open to other factors related to the market. So far, results have been encouraging, but it would be dangerous to put too much trust in any single stock market tool. This document is not intended as investment advice. I have no idea whatsoever of what is best for your particular circumstances. I want to thank the authors of all of the resources that I have linked to. Id appreciate any comments you may have. Please send them to: tomtiedeman@gmail.com
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TomT Stock Market Model 2012-05-20

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Six-Month Stock Market Indicators

Over 50 mid-term market timing guides that might be helpful

May 20, 2011

How did my forecasts do over the past half year? Meh.

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators

Market Valuation Measures

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators C

Trader Signals Fast (well, relatively fast)

Follow What Happens in the Real World

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators

Trader Signals Slow Moving

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators Tom Ts Stock Market Forecast

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators

My Econometric Models Past Performance Probability of Breaking Even

Predicted vs. Actual Gain

Six-Month Stock Market Indicators

Tom Ts Stock Market Forecast

About This Forecast

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