Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Highlights
EIAscurrentforecastoftheaverageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilin2012is
$110perbarrel,whichis$2.50perbarrellowerthaninlastmonthsOutlook,butstill
about$8perbarrelhigherthanlastyearsaverageprice.EIAexpectsthepriceofWest
TexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoiltoaverageabout$104perbarrelin2012,about$2
perbarrellowerthantheforecastinlastmonthsOutlook,but$9perbarrelhigherthan
the2011averageprice.EIAexpectscrudeoilpricestoremainrelativelyflatin2013.
Withfallingglobalcrudeoilpricesoverthepastmonth,EIAhasloweredtheaverage
regulargasolineretailpriceforecastforthecurrentAprilthroughSeptembersummer
drivingseasonto$3.79pergallon,16centspergallonbelowthelevelintheprevious
Outlook.EIAexpectsregulargasolineretailpricestoaverage$3.71pergallonin2012
and$3.67pergallonin2013,comparedwith$3.53pergallonin2011.TheSeptember
2012NewYorkHarborReformulatedBlendstockforOxygenateBlending(RBOB)futures
contractaveraged$2.99pergallonforthefivetradingdaysendingMay3.Basedonthe
marketvalueoffuturesandoptionscontracts,thereisa22percentprobabilitythatthe
RBOBcontractpriceatexpirationwillexceed$3.30pergallon,consistentwithan
averageregulargradegasolineretailpriceexceeding$4.00pergalloninSeptember.
EIAexpectsU.S.totalcrudeoilproductiontoaverage6.2millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)
in2012,anincreaseof0.5millionbbl/dfromlastyear,andthehighestlevelof
productionsince1998.Forecastlower48onshorecrudeoilproductionin2012
averagesover4.3millionbbl/d,reachingitshighestlevelsince1993.ProjectedU.S
domesticcrudeoilproductionincreasesto6.4millionbbl/din2013,drivenprimarilyby
growthinlower48onshoreproduction.
Verymildweatheroverthepastwintercontributedtonaturalgasworkinginventories
thatcontinuetosetnewrecordseasonalhighs,withApril2012endingatanestimated
2.61trillioncubicfeet(Tcf),about46percentmorethanthesametimelastyear.EIAs
average2012HenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceforecastis$2.45permillionBritish
thermalunits(MMBtu),adeclineof$1.55perMMBtufromthe2011averagespot
price.EIAexpectsthatHenryHubspotpriceswillaverage$3.17perMMBtuin2013.
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
EIAexpectselectricitygenerationfromcoaltodeclinebyabout15percentin2012as
generationfromnaturalgasincreasesbyabout24percent.EIAforecaststhatelectricity
generationfromcoalwillincreasebyabout4percentin2013,asprojectedcoalprices
fallslightlywhilenaturalgaspricesincrease,allowingcoaltoregainsomeofitspower
generationshare.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.EIAexpectsthatglobaloilmarketswillcontinueto
remaintightin2012,althoughmarketshaveeasedsomewhatsincemidMarch.Yearoveryear
supplygrowthin2012shouldsignificantlyexceedtheprojected1.0millionbbl/drisein
consumption,andweexpectglobalcommercialstockstobuildfollowingthesignificantdraws
during2011.Theoilproductiongainscontributedtoacounterseasonalstockbuildduringthe
1stquarterof2012andamoderatereductioninbackwardationincrudeoilprices.However,EIA
doesnotexpecttheselargecounterseasonalstockbuildstocontinuethroughouttheyear,and
bothglobaloilinventoryandspareproductioncapacitylevelsareprojectedtobetightenough
tosupporthigheraveragecrudeoilpricesin2012thaninthepreviousyear.Theprojectedoil
marketbalancereflectstheimpactsfromprevioussanctionsagainstIran,butthepotential
impactsofthemorerecentsanctionssettotakeeffectthisyeararenotaccountedforinthe
currentOutlook.
CrudeoilpriceshavedeclinedafterincreasingthroughmidMarch,asgloballiquidssupply
outpacedconsumptionby0.6millionbbl/dinfirstquarter2012,whichledtoglobalinventory
builds.TheeasinginthebackwardationofwaterbornelightcrudepricesnotedinEIAsApril
27threport,TheAvailabilityandPriceofPetroleumandPetroleumProductsProducedin
CountriesOtherThanIran,hasalsocontinuedinrecentdays.Whilepricetrendsandreduced
backwardationsignalsomemarketeasing,thecontinuingpremiumoncontractsfornearterm
deliveryandapricelevelthatremainselevatedrelativetothefourthquarterof2011isstill
indicativeoftightnessinworldoilmarkets.
Thereareseveraluncertaintiesthatcouldpushoilpriceshigherorlowerthanprojected.A
numberofcountriesoutsideoftheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)
arecurrentlyundergoingsupplydisruptions,asdiscussedinEIAsApril27threportThe
AvailabilityandPriceofPetroleumandPetroleumProductsProducedinCountriesOtherThan
IranandtheApril18editionofThisWeekinPetroleum.Oilpricescouldbehigherthan
projectedinthisOutlookifrecoveriesfromsupplydisruptionsareslowerthanforecast,
additionaldisruptionsoccur,orsupplygrowthislowerthanexpected.Additionally,although
theeffectsoftheimpendingEuropeanUnionembargoandothersanctionstargetingexportsof
Iraniancrudeoilandtheirassociatedpaymentsarestilluncertain,heightenedmarketanxiety
surroundingapotentiallysignificantsupplydisruptioncouldbolsteroilprices.Onthedemand
side,economicgrowthbelowcurrentexpectationscouldresultinreducedoildemandandlower
prices.
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.Worldliquidfuelsconsumptiongrewbyan
estimated0.8millionbbl/din2011.EIAexpectsconsumptiongrowthof1.0millionbbl/din
2012and1.2millionbbl/din2013,withChina,theMiddleEast,CentralandSouthAmerica,and
othercountriesoutsideoftheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)
accountingforessentiallyallconsumptiongrowth(WorldLiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).
OECDliquidfuelsconsumptionisprojectedtodeclineby0.4millionbbl/din2012,withEurope
and,toalesserextent,theUnitedStatesaccountingforalmostallofthedecline.In2013,
forecastOECDliquidfuelsconsumptionisexpectedtoremainessentiallyflat.
NonOPECSupply.EIAexpectsnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproductiontoriseby0.7
millionbbl/din2012andbyafurther1.1millionbbl/din2013.ThelargestareaofnonOPEC
growthwillbeNorthAmerica,whereproductionincreasesby680thousandbbl/dand260
thousandbbl/din2012and2013,respectively,resultingfromcontinuedproductiongrowth
fromU.S.onshoreshaleandothertightoilformationsandCanadianoilsands.InBrazil,output
isprojectedtoriseannuallybyanaverageof130thousandbbl/doverthenexttwoyears,with
increasedoutputfromitsoffshore,presaltoilfields.EIAexpectsthatKazakhstan,whichwill
commencecommercialproductionintheKashaganfieldnextyear,willincreaseitstotal
productionby160thousandbbl/din2013.ProductionalsorisesinChinaandColombiaoverthe
nexttwoyears,whileproductiondeclinesinMexicoandtheNorthSea.
SeveralnotabledisruptionstononOPECproductioncommencedorintensifiedsincethe
beginningofthisyear,asdiscussedinboththeApril27threportTheAvailabilityandPriceof
PetroleumandPetroleumProductsProducedinCountriesOtherThanIranandintheApril18
editionofThisWeekinPetroleum.UnplannedoutagestononOPECproductiontotaledover1.2
millionbbl/dinMarchandareestimatedtoremainatanelevatedlevel.
OPECSupply.EIAexpectsthatOPECmemberswillcontinuetoproduceslightlyover30million
bbl/dofcrudeoiloverthenexttwoyearstoaccommodatetheprojectedincreaseinworldoil
demandandtocounterbalancesupplydisruptions.ProjectedOPECcrudeoilproduction
increasesbyabout1.0millionbbl/din2012andthenfallsby0.3millionbbl/din2013asnon
OPECsupplygrowthincreasesandstocksremainflat.OPECnoncrudepetroleumliquids
(condensates,naturalgasliquids,coaltoliquids,andgastoliquids),whicharenotcoveredby
OPECsproductionquotas,areforecasttoincreaseby0.2millionbbl/din2012,andby0.1
millionbbl/din2013.
EIAexpectsIranscrudeproductiontofallbyabout500thousandbbl/dbytheendof2012and
byanadditional200thousandbbl/din2013,fromitspreviousoutputlevelof3.55millionbbl/d
attheendof2011.Iransoutputdeclinebegantoaccelerateduringthelastquarterof2011
andhascontinued.EIAbelievesthatthisaccelerationreflectsalackofinvestment,whichis
neededtooffsetnaturalproductiondeclines.Anumberofforeigncompaniesthatwere
investinginIransupstreamhavehaltedtheiractivitiesasaresultofprevioussanctionsagainst
Iranthathavemadeitdifficulttodobusinesswiththecountry.EIAexpectsthattheforecast
declineinIransoutputwillbeoffsetbyincreasedproductioninotherOPECmembercountries.
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
EIAsforecastofmarketbalancesdoesnotfactorinanypotentialeffectsofthemorerecent
sanctionstargetingIranscentralbankandtheimpendingEuropeanUnionembargoonIrans
crudeoilproduction,ortheirpossibileimpactontheproduction,sparecapacity,orinventories
ofIranandotherOPECmembercountries.AsnotedinEIAsApril27threport,thereare
indicationsthattheU.S.andEUsanctionsarealreadyaffectingsalesofIraniancrudeoil.
CurrentandcontinuingdifficultiesinplacingexportvolumesfromIrancouldresultinabuildup
ofIranianoilinstorage,whetheronshoreoroffshore.AnincreaseinIraniancrudeoilstorage
woulddriveanincreaseinglobaloilinventories.However,insofarasinventoriesheldbyIran
arebuildingduetotheeffectofsanctionsonitsabilitytoselloil,thosevolumeswouldnotbe
availabletoconsumersinthesamewayastraditionalinventories.
Moreover,ifIransdifficultiesinfindingmarketsforitsoilpersistorintensify,oroutstrip
availablestoragecapacity,Iranmayhavetoshutinproduction.EIAexpectsthatanyvolumes
thatareshutincouldbereplacedbyincreasedproductionfromsparecapacityheldbyother
OPECmembercountries.Insuchascenario,theshutinproductioncapacityinIranmay
technicallybecountedasnewsparecapacity,butlikeinventoriesthataccumulateforsimilar
reasonswouldnotbereadilyavailabletoalleviatemarkettightnessinthesamemannerthat
regularsparecapacitynotforcedbysanctionstypicallywouldbe.
OPECmembersserveastheswingproducersintheworldmarketbecauseonlyOPECproducers
possesssurplusorspareoilproductioncapacity.EIAprojectsthatOPECsurplusproduction
capacitywillaverage2.8millionbbl/din2012andrisetoanaverage3.5millionbbl/din2013
(OPECSurplusCrudeOilProductionCapacityChart).However,asdiscussedabove,marketsmay
becloselywatchingthecompositionofOPECsparecapacity,aswellasitsaggregatelevel,asthe
situationwithrespecttoIranevolves.Underplausiblecircumstances,themarketmaydiscount
aportionofOPECmembersaggregatesparecapacity.
OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAestimatesthatOECDcommercialoilinventoriesended2011
at2.59billionbarrels,equivalentto56.1daysofforwardcover(DaysofSupplyofOECD
CommercialStocksChart).ProjectedOECDoilinventoriesincreaseto2.64billionbarrelsand
57.3daysofforwardcoverbytheendof2012.AlthoughtheforecastDecember2012inventory
isslightlylowerthanthe2.66billionbarrellevelattheendofDecember2010,thedaysof
forwardcoverarestillamongthehighestendofyearlevelssince1991becauseofthedeclinein
OECDconsumption.
CrudeOilPrices.EIAhasloweredtheforecast2012averageU.S.refineracquisitioncostof
crudeoilby$2.50perbarrelfromlastmonthsOutlookto$110perbarrel,stillabout$8per
barrelhigherthanlastyearsaverageprice.EIAexpectsthepriceofWTIcrudeoiltoaverage
about$104perbarrelin2012,about$2perbarrellowerthanlastmonthsOutlook,but$9per
barrelhigherthanthe2011averageprice.EIAexpectscrudeoilpricestoremainrelativelyflat
in2013,withWTIandtheU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilaveragingabout$104per
barreland$108perbarrel,respectively(WestTexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).The
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
projectedWTIpricediscounttotheaverageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilnarrows
overtheforecastfromabout$6perbarrelinthesecondquarterof2012to$4perbarrelbythe
fourthquarterof2013,astransportationbottlenecksdiminish.
Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).WTIfutures
forJuly2012deliveryduringthe5dayperiodendingMay3,2012averaged$105perbarrel.
Impliedvolatilityaveraged23percent,establishingthelowerandupperlimitsofthe95percent
confidenceintervalforthemarket'sexpectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinJuly2012at
$90perbarreland$123perbarrel,respectively.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforJuly2011
deliveryaveraged$110perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged29percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$91perbarrel
and$133perbarrel.
U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionfell340thousandbbl/d(1.8percent)last
year.Motorgasolineconsumptionaccountedforthebulkofthatdecline,shrinkingby260
thousandbbl/d(2.9percent).Inthefirstquarterof2012,totalconsumptioncontinuedto
displayweakness,fallingby670thousandbbl/d(3.5percent)fromthesameperiodlastyear
(U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).Higherretailgasolinepricescontributedtothe150
thousandbbl/d(1.7percent)declineinmotorgasolineconsumptionduringthefirstquarter
2012fromtheyearbefore.Distillatefuelconsumptionalsoshrankby150thousandbbl/d(3.7
percent),largelyduetounusuallywarmweather.Fortherestof2012,EIAexpectsmore
moderateyearoveryeardeclinesinmotorgasolineconsumption,averagingabout30thousand
bbl/d.Incontrast,projecteddistillatefueloilconsumptionrecoversfromtheverywarmwinter
withyearoveryeargrowthaveragingabout80thousandbbl/d,boostedbycontinuedgrowthin
manufacturingproduction.
DespiteassumedgrowthinU.S.realdisposableincomeof1.9percentnextyear,forecastmotor
gasolineconsumptioncontinuestodeclineby30thousandbbl/d(0.3percent)in2013.This
Outlookreflectshighgasolineprices,slowinggrowthinthedrivingagepopulation,andthe
improvingaveragefueleconomyofnewvehicles.Distillatefuelconsumption,ontheother
hand,increasesby90thousandbbl/d(2.4percent),buoyedbyanassumednearnormalwinter
andcontinuinggrowthinmanufacturingoutput.
U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproductionincreasedbyanestimated
190thousandbbl/d(3.4percent)to5.66millionbbl/din2011.Anincreaseof450thousand
bbl/dinlower48onshoreproductionin2011waspartlyoffsetbya30thousandbbl/d
productiondeclineinAlaskaanda230thousandbbl/dproductiondeclineintheFederalGulfof
Mexico(GOM).
ForecastU.S.totalcrudeoilproductionincreasesto6.17millionbbl/din2012,anupward
revisionof150thousandbbl/dfromlastmonthsOutlook,andthehighestlevelofproduction
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
since1998.Growthinlower48onshorecrudeoilproductionof560thousandbbl/din2012
overshadowsdeclinesaveragingabout30thousandbbl/dinAlaskanoutputand20thousand
bbl/dinGOMproduction(U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsProductionChart).Therisein
productionisdrivenbyincreasedoildirecteddrillingactivity,particularlyinonshoretightoil
formations.ThenumberofonshoreoildirecteddrillingrigsreportedbyBakerHughes
increasedfrom777atthebeginningof2011to1,355onMay4,2012.
TheshareoftotalU.S.consumptionmetbytotalliquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoil
andproducts)hasbeenfallingsince2005,andaveraged45percentin2011,downfrom49
percentin2010.EIAexpectsthatthetotalnetimportshareofconsumptionwillcontinueto
declineto43percentin2012andto42percentin2013.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.Regulargradegasolineretailpricesaveraged$3.53pergallonin
2011,$0.74pergallon(27percent)higherthanthe2010average.Thepriceincreasein2011
largelyreflectedhighercrudeoilcosts($0.60pergallon)andhigherrefinerygasolinemargins
($0.10pergallon).EIAexpectstheregulargradegasolineretailpricetoincreasetoanaverage
of$3.71pergallonin2012,primarilyduetohighercrudeoilcosts(U.S.GasolineandCrudeOil
PricesChart).Regulargradegasolinepricespeakedat$3.90pergalloninAprilandare
projectedtoaverage$3.79pergallonduringthesummerseason(AprilthroughSeptember)
comparedwithlastsummersaverageof$3.71pergallon.Forecastregulargradegasoline
pricesdeclinetoanaverageof$3.67pergallonin2013.
EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$3.84pergallonin2011,
willaverage$4.06pergallonin2012,down9centspergallonfromlastmonthsOutlook.In
2013,dieselfuelretailpricesareprojectedtodeclineto$4.03pergallon,8centspergallon
lowerthanthepreviousOutlook(U.S.DieselFuelandCrudeOilPricesChart).
Becausetaxesandretaildistributioncostsaregenerallystable,movementsingasolineand
dieselpricesaredrivenprimarilybychangesinbothcrudeoilpricesandwholesalemargins.The
retailpriceprojectionsreflecthigherpricesfortheaveragerefineracquisitioncostofcrudeoil,
whichaverages$110perbarrel($2.61pergallon)in2012,comparedwiththe$102perbarrel
($2.43pergallon)averagefor2011.EIAexpectswholesalegasolinemargins(thedifference
betweenthewholesalepriceofgasolineandtherefineracquisitioncostofcrudeoil)will
average42centspergallonand41centspergallonin2012and2013,respectively,whichare
slightlyhigherthantheprevious5yearaverageof40centspergallon.Incontrast,wholesale
dieselmarginsarerobustduringtheforecastintervalduetostrongworldwidedemandforthe
fuel.In2012,thosemarginsaverage60centspergallon,similartothe2011averageandhigher
thantheprevious5yearaverageof52centspergallon.Thedieselwholesalemarginfor2013
remainswide,averaging59centspergallon.
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
NaturalGas
U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.EIAexpectsthatnaturalgasconsumptionwillaverage70.2
billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2012,anincreaseof3.4Bcf/d(5.1percent)from2011andan
upwardrevisionof0.6Bcf/dfromlastmonthsOutlook.EIAexpectsthatlargegainsinelectric
powerusewilloffsetdeclinesinresidentialandcommercialuse.Becauseofthemuchwarmer
thannormalwinterthisyear,EIAexpectsbothresidentialandcommercialconsumptiontofall
byover6percentin2012,reflectingadownwardrevisioninprojectedconsumptionfromlast
monthsOutlook.Thedownwardrevisionsinresidentialandcommercialconsumptionreflect
thedeclineintotalprojected2012heatingdegreedaysasreportedbytheNationalOceanicand
AtmosphericAdministration.
Projectedconsumptionofnaturalgasintheelectricpowersectorgrowsbyalmost21percentin
2012,primarilydrivenbytheincreasingrelativecostadvantagesofnaturalgasovercoalfor
powergenerationinsomeregions.Consumptionintheelectricpowersectorpeaksinthethird
quarterof2012,at31.2Bcf/d,whenelectricitydemandforairconditioningishighest.This
compareswith27.7Bcf/dduringthethirdquarterof2011.
Growthintotalnaturalgasconsumptionslowsin2013,withforecastconsumptionaveraging
71.2Bcf/d(U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionChart).However,unlike2012,growthin2013is
drivenbyconsumptionfromtheresidential,commercial,andindustrialsectors.Aforecastof
closertonormalwintertemperaturesdrivesincreasesinresidentialandcommercial
consumptionin2013of7.1percentand4.2percent,respectively.Theincreaseinconsumption
inthesesectors,aswellasa1.4percentincreaseinindustrialconsumption,morethanoffsetsa
2.0percentdeclineinpowersectornaturalgasburn.
U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.Totalmarketedproductionofnaturalgasgrewbyan
estimated4.8Bcf/d(7.9percent)in2011.Thisstronggrowthwasdriveninlargepartby
increasesinshalegasproduction.WhileEIAexpectsyearoveryearproductiongrowthto
continuein2012,theprojectedincreasesoccurataslowerratethanin2011aslowprices
reducenewdrillingplans.AccordingtoBakerHughes,thenaturalgasrigcountwas613asof
April27,2012,downfroma2011highof936inmidOctober,makingitthelowestrigcount
since2002.EIAsproductionsurveyindicatesnaturalgasmarketedproductionfellby420Bcf/d
fromJanuary2012toFebruary2012.EIAexpectsgrowthinU.S.productionduring2012to
average4.4percent.Decliningproductionfromlessprofitabledrynaturalgasplayssuchas
theHaynesvilleShaleareoffsetbygrowthinproductionfromliquidsrichnaturalgasproduction
areassuchastheEagleFordandwetareasoftheMarcellusShale,andassociatedgasfromthe
growthindomesticcrudeoilproduction.
EIAexpectspipelinegrossimportswillfallby0.3Bcf/d(3.3percent)in2012asdomesticsupply
displacesCanadiansources.ThewarmwinterintheUnitedStatesalsoaddstotheyearover
yeardeclineinimports,particularlytotheNortheast,whereimportednaturalgascanserveas
additionalsupplyintimesofverycoldweather.EIAexpectspipelinegrossimportswillincrease
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
by2.3percentin2013,partiallyduetonearnormalwinterweatherdrivinghigherresidential
andcommercialdemand.Additionally,EIAexpectsincreasedpipelineimportstohelpmeet
continuedhighdemandfornaturalgasforelectricpowergeneration.Pipelinegrossexports
grewby1.0Bcf/din2011,drivenbyincreasedexportstoMexico,andareexpectedtocontinue
togrowataslowerratein2012and2013.
Liquefiednaturalgas(LNG)importsareexpectedtofallby0.3Bcf/d(32percent)in2012.EIA
expectsthatanaverageofabout0.7Bcf/dwillarriveintheUnitedStates(mainlyattheEverett
LNGterminalinNewEnglandandtheElbaIslandterminalinGeorgia)inboth2012and2013,
eithertofulfilllongtermcontractobligationsortotakeadvantageoftemporarilyhighlocal
pricesduetocoldsnapsanddisruptions.
U.S.NaturalGasInventories.Workingnaturalgasinventoriescontinuetosetnewseasonal
recordhighsastheverymildwintercontributedtomuchlowerthannormalinventorydraws.
AsofApril27,2012,accordingtoEIAsWeeklyNaturalGasStorageReport,workinginventories
totaled2,576Bcf,840Bcfgreaterthanlastyearsleveland857Bcfabovethe5year(2007
2011)average.EIAexpectsthatinventorylevelsattheendofOctober2012willsetanew
recordhighat4,096Bcf(U.S.WorkingNaturalGasinStorageChart),althoughtherecordwill
largelybeduetohighlevelsalreadypresentatthestartoftheinjectionseason.Theprojected
increaseof1,623Bcfinworkinggasinventoryduringthe2012injectionseason(fromtheendof
MarchtotheendofOctober)isthesmallestbuildsince2002.Limitsonstoragecapacity,as
wellashighdemandfromtheelectricpowersectorthissummer,willlimittheoveralllevelof
injections.In2013,workinginventorylevelsrecedefromrecordhighs,althoughtheywillstill
remainrobustcomparedwithrecenthistory.
U.S.NaturalGasPrices.Naturalgasspotpricesaveraged$1.95perMMBtuattheHenryHubin
April2012,down$0.23perMMBtufromtheMarch2012averageandthelowestaverage
monthlypricesinceMarch1999,whichalsowasthelasttimetheHenryHubpriceaveragedless
than$2perMMBtu.Abundantsuppliesandlowerwinterheatingdemandthisyearhave
contributedtotherecentlowprices.EIAexpectstheHenryHubnaturalgaspricewillaverage
$2.45perMMBtuin2012,asmalldownwardrevisionfrom$2.51perMMBtuexpectedinlast
monthsOutlook.EIAreviseditsforecastfor2013downto$3.17perMMBtu,from$3.40per
MMBtuinlastmonthsOutlook(U.S.NaturalGasPricesChart).
NaturalgasfuturespricesforJuly2012delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingMay3,2012)
averaged$2.39perMMBtu,andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitybasedonoptionsandfutures
priceswas51percent(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).Currentoptionsandfutures
pricesimplythatmarketparticipantsplacethelowerandupperboundsforthe95percent
confidenceintervalforJuly2012contractsat$1.63perMMBtuand$3.50perMMBtu,
respectively.Atthistimelastyear,theJuly2011naturalgasfuturescontractaveraged$4.65
perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged34percent.Thecorrespondinglowerandupper
limitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.61perMMBtuand$5.98perMMBtu.
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
Coal
U.S.CoalConsumption.EIAforecaststhatelectricpowersectorcoalconsumptionwillbeabout
800millionshorttons(MMst)inboth2012and2013.Pricesfornaturalgasdeliveredtothe
electricpowerindustryfellby7.5percentin2011,whichcontributedtoasignificantincreasein
theshareofnaturalgasfiredgeneration.EIAexpectsthistrendtocontinuein2012,with
electricpowersectorcoalconsumptionfallingby14percent(U.S.CoalConsumptionChart).EIA
expectsthatelectricpowersectorcoalconsumptionwillincreaseby1.2percentin2013,as
projectedpowerindustrycoalpricesfall(4percent)andnaturalgaspricesincrease.
U.S.CoalSupply.EIAforecaststhatcoalproductionwilldeclineby10.2percentin2012as
domesticconsumptionandexportsfall(U.S.CoalProductionChart).Productionforthefirst
threemonthsof2012was22MMstbelowlastyearsvalueforthesameperiod.Annual
productiondeclinesgreaterthan25MMstareexpectedineachofthethreecoalproducing
regions(Appalachia,InteriorandWestern).Despitedeclinesinproduction,EIAprojectsthat
secondaryinventorieswillincreasein2012,withelectricpowersectorstocksexceeding200
MMst,andinventorieswillremainatelevatedlevelsin2013(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoal
StocksChart).
U.S.CoalTrade.EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainstrongbutfallbelowthe107MMst
exportedin2011.ForecastU.S.coalexportsare100MMstin2012and97MMstin2013.U.S.
coalexportsaveraged56MMstinthedecadepreceding2011.
U.S.CoalPrices.Deliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowerindustryhadincreasedsteadilyover
thelast10yearsandthistrendcontinuedin2011,withanaveragedeliveredcoalpriceof$2.40
perMMBtu(a5.8percentincreasefrom2010).However,EIAexpectsthedeclineindemandfor
coaltogenerateelectricitywillputdownwardpressureoncoalpricesandcontributetothe
shutinofhighercostproduction.Severalcompanieshaverecentlyannouncedthecurtailment
ofoperations,particularlyinAppalachia,whereproductioncostsatsomeolderminesarehigh.
EIAforecaststheaveragedeliveredcoalpricein2012willbe2.8percentlowerthanthe2011
averageprice.EIApredictsthe2013averagedeliveredcoalpricetobe$2.24perMMBtu,or3.8
percentlowerthanthepreviousyearsprice.
Electricity
U.S.ElectricityConsumption.Heatingdegreedaysnationwideduringthefirstquarterof2012
wereatthelowestlevelsincerecordkeepingbeganin1895.Wintertemperatureswere
particularlymildintheSouth,whereamajorityofhomesuseelectricheatpumps.Themild
weathercontributedtoan11percentdeclineinU.S.residentialelectricitysalescomparedwith
thesameperiodlastyear.Forthesummermonths,EIAexpectsU.S.coolingdegreedaysto
average16percentlowerthanlastsummer.Overall,residentialelectricitysalesfallabout4
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
percentduring2012.EIAexpectstotalconsumptionofelectricitytodeclineby0.8percent
during2012andthengrowby1.9percentin2013.
U.S.ElectricityGeneration.Naturalgasfiredgenerationcontinuestoexpanditsshareoftotal
generationattheexpenseofcoalfiredgeneration.Duringthefirstquarterof2012,naturalgas
accountedfor28.7percentoftotalgenerationcomparedwith20.7percentduringthesame
quarterlastyear.Incontrast,coalsshareoftotalgenerationdeclinedfrom44.6percentto36.0
percentoverthesameperiod.Muchoftherecentincreaseinnaturalgasgenerationhas
stemmedfromincreasedutilizationofcombinedcyclecapacity,whichtypicallydoesnotexhibit
asmuchseasonalfluctuationasothertypesofnaturalgasplantsusedprimarilyforpeaking
generation.Thistrendincapacityutilization,alongwithsummerweatherthatisprojectedtobe
milderthanlastyear,shoulddampenyearoveryeargrowthinnaturalgasgenerationduring
thethirdquarter(U.S.ElectricityGenerationChart).
U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.EIAforecastsaverageU.S.residentialelectricitypricestoriseby
0.6percentin2012,andthenfallby2.1percentin2013(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPrices
Chart).Therisingcostsoftransmittinganddistributingelectricitytoretailcustomersoffset
someofthedecliningfuelcosts.
RenewablesandCarbonDioxideEmissions
U.S.Renewables.Aftergrowingby14percentin2011,totalrenewableenergysupplyis
projectedtodeclineby1.5percentin2012(U.S.RenewableEnergySupplyChart).Thisdecrease
istheresultofhydropowerresourcelevelsbeginningareturntothelongtermaverage,with
supplyfallingby0.3quadrillionBtu(10percent).Thedeclineinhydropowerfromthe2011level
morethanoffsetsgrowthinotherrenewableenergysupplies.Renewablessupplydecreases
furtherin2013ashydropowercontinuestodecline(6.7percent)andnonhydropower
renewablesgrowthof2.2percentisnotenoughtooffsetthedecline.
Undercurrentlaw,federalproductiontaxcreditsforwindpoweredgenerationwillnotbe
availableforturbinesthatbeginoperatingaftertheendof2012.Windpoweredgeneration,
whichgrewby26percentin2011,isforecasttogrowanadditional13percentin2012and5
percentin2013.SincethelastOutlook,theamountofnewwindcapacityreportedtoEIAas
possiblycomingonlinein2013hasfallenby26percent.
Intermsofliquidrenewablefuels,EIAexpectsfuelethanolproductiontoremainsteadyfrom
2011through2013averagingabout900thousandbbl/dforall3years.Thisforecastassumes
thatE15(gasolineblendedwith15percentethanolbyvolume)doesnotyetreachthemarket.
Consequently,U.S.ethanolproductionisprojectedtoexceedthevolumethatcaneasilybeused
intheU.S.liquidfuelspool,sotheNationwillcontinuetobeanetexporterofethanoloverthe
nexttwoyears.EIAestimatesthatbiodieselproductionin2011averagedabout63thousand
bbl/d(971milliongallonsoftotalannualproduction).Forecastbiodieselproductionaverages
63thousandbbl/din2012,and71thousandbbl/din2013.
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
10
U.S.EnergyRelatedCarbonDioxideEmissions.Afterdecliningby1.9percentin2011,fossil
fuelemissionsareprojectedtofurtherdeclineby2.9percentin2012,butincreaseby1.2
percentin2013.Petroleumemissionsdeclineslightlyin2012(0.3percent)andthenriseby0.6
percentin2013,whilenaturalgasemissionsriseby5.5percentand1.2percentin2012and
2013,respectively.Coalemissionsdeclinein2012by11.9percent,butriseby2.1percentin
2013(U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012
11
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2011
Jul 2011
Jan 2012
Jul 2012
Jan 2013
Jul 2013
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending May 3, 2012
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
Forecast
Price difference
Retail regular gasoline
Crude oil
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
Jan 2013
Price difference
Retail diesel fuel
Crude oil
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
0
Jan 2011
Jul 2011
Jan 2012
Jul 2012
Jan 2013
Jul 2013
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending May 3, 2012
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
Residential price
Henry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price
20
15
10
0
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Total consumption
90
7.0
85
6.0
5.0
80
4.0
Annual growth
75
3.0
2.0
70
1.0
65
0.0
-1.0
60
-2.0
55
-3.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
China
2009
2010
United States
2011
2012
2013
Other Countries
Forecast
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
2011
OECD*
2012
Non-OECD Asia
2013
Other
Forecast
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
2011
2012
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea
2013
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC
2013
1.0
2012
0.8
2011
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Norway
United Kingdom
Sudan
Mexico
Azerbaijan
Syria
Egypt
Australia
Oman
Gabon
India
Malaysia
Vietnam
Brazil
Kazakhstan
China
Russia
Canada
Colombia
United States
-0.6
Forecast
100
80
60
40
20
1
0
-1
-20
-2
-40
-3
-60
-4
-80
-5
2009-Q1
-100
2010-Q1
2011-Q1
2012-Q1
2013-Q1
Forecast
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Note: Shaded area represents 2001-2011 average (2.6 million barrels per day)
2011
2013
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
Total production
(line chart)
9.75
(column chart)
0.60
9.50
0.55
9.25
0.50
9.00
0.45
8.75
0.40
8.50
0.35
8.25
0.30
8.00
0.25
7.75
0.20
7.50
0.15
7.25
0.10
7.00
0.05
6.75
0.00
6.50
-0.05
6.25
-0.10
2010
2011
2012
2013
Forecast
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
2000
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
Total consumption
(line chart)
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
2010
2011
2012
Forecast
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
Total consumption
(line chart)
100
90
4.5
80
4.0
70
3.5
60
3.0
50
2.5
40
2.0
30
1.5
20
1.0
10
0.5
0.0
-10
-0.5
-20
-1.0
-30
-1.5
2010
2011
Electric power (right axis)
Industrial (right axis)
Total consumption (left axis)
2012
2013
(column chart)
16.0
68
14.0
66
12.0
64
10.0
62
8.0
60
6.0
58
4.0
56
2.0
54
0.0
52
-2.0
50
-4.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Forecast
Storage level
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
180%
170%
160%
150%
140%
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jan 2013
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
Total consumption
(line chart)
110
100
120
90
100
80
80
70
60
60
40
50
20
40
30
-20
20
-40
10
-60
-80
-10
-100
-20
-120
-140
-30
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total production
(line chart)
100
95
70
90
60
85
50
80
40
75
30
70
20
65
10
60
55
-10
50
-20
45
-30
40
-40
35
-50
-60
30
2010
2011
2012
2013
Appalachian region (right axis)
Total production (left axis)
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
Total consumption
(line chart)
13,000
800
12,000
700
11,000
600
10,000
500
9,000
400
8,000
300
7,000
200
6,000
100
5,000
4,000
-100
3,000
-200
2010
2011
2012
2013
14
13
Forecast
36%
12
11
30%
10
9
24%
8
7
18%
Annual growth
6
10.3%
12%
4
4.2%
5.7%
5.4%
3.2%
2.6%
2.4%
6%
2.2%
2.2%
0.6%
0.3%
0%
1
0
-1.6%
-2.1%
-6%
-1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Forecast
12,000
10,000
8,000
49.8%
49.6%
49.0%
48.5%
48.2%
44.4%
44.8%
42.2%
36.2%
36.9%
Coal
Natural gas
Petroleum
Nuclear
6,000
4,000
17.9%
18.8%
20.1%
21.6%
21.4%
23.3%
23.9%
24.8%
30.9%
30.2%
Hydropower
Renewables
Other sources
2,000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.
9
8
7
Solar power
Geothermal
Other biomass
Wind power
Liquid biofuels
Wood biomass
Hydropower
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Other
biomass includes municipal waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, and other non-wood waste.
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
Forecast
6%
3%
0%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-15%
2010
2011
All fossil fuels
Coal
2012
Petroleum
2013
Natural gas
2010
2011
2012
2013
Normal
200
150
100
50
0
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Note: Some data for 2012 and 2013 may represent projections.
AUG
SEP
2013
1000
800
600
400
200
0
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Note: Some data for 2012 and 2013 may represent projections.
Pacific
WEST
WA
MIDWEST
ND
MT
OR
Pacific
NV
CA
West
North
Central
SD
W
ID
Mountain
CO
NORTHEAST
MN
NE
VT
W
IA
MO
KS
UT
East
MI
North
Central OH
IL
Middle
Atlantic
PA
IN
WV
NM
AZ
Pacific
HI
VA
KY
OK
TX
EastTN
AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
NC
South
Atlantic
GA
SC
LEGEND
REGION
Division
State
FL
SOUTH
ME
New
NY England
2012
Year-over-year Change
(percent)
Q2
Q3
Season
Q2
Q3
Season
Q2
Q3
Season
2.43
2.14
2.29
2.47
2.50
2.48
1.3
17.0
8.7
2.59
2.43
2.51
2.62
2.64
2.63
1.3
8.8
5.0
2.57
2.40
2.48
2.61
2.63
2.62
1.2
9.8
5.5
3.12
2.97
3.04
3.13
3.07
3.10
0.3
3.5
1.9
3.16
3.07
3.11
3.22
3.24
3.23
1.9
5.8
3.8
3.80
3.63
3.71
3.83
3.76
3.79
0.9
3.5
2.1
4.01
3.87
3.94
4.08
4.09
4.08
1.7
5.7
3.7
8.863
8.875
8.869
8.804
8.848
8.826
-0.7
-0.3
-0.5
7.482
7.818
7.651
7.475
7.613
7.544
-0.1
-2.6
-1.4
-1.1
0.3
-0.4
-20.3
75.7
8.6
0.856
0.842
0.849
0.847
0.844
0.845
-0.003
-0.010
-0.007
0.061
-0.004
0.028
Net Imports f
0.529
0.225
0.376
0.422
0.396
0.409
85.8
89.8
87.8
87.7
89.4
88.5
214.9
215.2
214.9
220.7
215.1
220.7
Ending
215.2
216.1
216.1
215.1
215.5
215.5
13,272
13,332
13,302
13,567
13,634
13,600
2.2
2.3
2.2
Real Income
10,170
10,189
10,179
10,268
10,323
10,296
1.0
1.3
1.1
Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data
are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).
Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................
5.53
5.60
5.57
5.95
6.14
6.21
6.10
6.25
6.30
6.35
6.32
6.46
5.66
6.17
6.36
60.83
62.75
63.10
65.32
65.88
65.98
65.76
65.76
66.02
65.92
65.90
66.12
63.01
65.84
65.99
Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................
274
264
275
282
257
231
246
248
230
236
244
246
1,094
982
955
Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................
19.09
18.75
18.84
18.68
18.41
18.77
18.97
18.87
18.75
18.86
18.99
18.91
18.84
18.76
18.88
Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................
83.91
56.61
58.67
68.13
81.14
61.64
62.53
75.39
87.32
60.35
62.28
75.06
66.76
70.17
71.19
Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................
255
242
280
227
208
199
243
226
225
205
240
221
1,003
876
890
Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................
10.56
10.09
11.92
9.68
10.03
10.10
11.72
10.06
10.59
10.21
11.75
10.15
10.57
10.48
10.68
Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................
2.08
2.29
2.02
2.00
2.05
2.23
2.00
1.97
2.03
2.21
1.99
2.00
8.39
8.25
8.24
25.96
23.18
24.43
23.99
25.13
23.00
24.12
24.70
25.51
23.09
24.09
24.66
97.56
96.94
97.35
93.98
108.13
100.61
104.55
107.87
109.42
110.50
110.50
109.00
107.75
108.75
107.75
101.90
109.59
108.31
4.06
4.10
4.10
3.37
2.53
2.06
2.31
2.70
2.95
2.95
3.10
3.25
3.90
2.40
3.06
Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................
2.34
2.42
2.46
2.37
2.41
2.34
2.32
2.27
2.30
2.25
2.24
2.19
2.40
2.33
2.24
13,228
2.2
13,272
1.6
13,332
1.5
13,429
1.6
13,498
2.0
13,567
2.2
13,634
2.3
13,704
2.0
13,779
2.1
13,872
2.2
13,976
2.5
14,102
2.9
13,315
1.7
13,601
2.1
13,932
2.4
112.4
1.8
113.1
2.1
113.8
2.4
114.1
2.1
114.5
1.9
114.8
1.5
115.3
1.3
115.7
1.5
116.1
1.4
116.3
1.3
116.8
1.3
117.3
1.3
113.3
2.1
115.1
1.5
116.6
1.3
10,183
2.6
10,170
1.1
10,189
0.7
10,232
0.8
10,221
0.4
10,268
1.0
10,323
1.3
10,375
1.4
10,416
1.9
10,466
1.9
10,517
1.9
10,590
2.1
10,193
1.3
10,297
1.0
10,497
1.9
90.4
6.8
90.6
4.0
91.7
3.9
92.9
4.4
95.1
5.2
96.0
6.0
97.0
5.7
97.6
5.1
98.3
3.4
99.2
3.3
100.3
3.4
101.4
3.9
91.4
4.8
96.4
5.5
99.8
3.5
2,285
33
517
432
77
942
1,441
70
1,782
53
484
371
97
784
1,625
78
2,215
35
530
349
99
787
1,617
83
4,320
1,477
3,988
1,286
4,462
1,255
Energy Consumption
Energy Prices
Macroeconomic
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
2012
4th
1st
2011
Year
2012
2013
104.00
108.00
107.75
94.86
102.67
101.90
104.12
110.21
109.59
103.75
108.56
108.31
303
319
309
289
312
306
287
303
291
303
321
315
298
317
310
321
253
320
254
314
255
305
239
323
264
319
255
361
367
403
409
373
379
406
402
373
379
404
396
358
364
399
401
353
358
384
368
371
376
406
391
367
372
403
407
2.70
2.87
2.78
2.95
3.19
3.09
2.95
3.15
3.06
3.10
3.25
3.15
3.25
3.50
3.40
3.90
4.12
4.00
2.40
2.52
2.45
3.06
3.27
3.17
3.41
8.04
14.81
4.02
8.10
10.20
4.49
8.13
9.52
4.04
8.40
11.53
4.16
8.99
15.72
4.61
8.93
10.96
5.02
8.85
10.79
3.72
7.99
10.38
4.33
8.52
10.70
2.34
2.84
19.97
23.76
2.32
2.96
19.63
23.98
2.27
3.55
19.38
24.49
2.30
3.78
19.18
24.11
2.25
3.70
18.84
24.12
2.24
3.67
18.72
24.13
2.19
4.08
18.62
24.22
2.40
4.71
18.49
22.40
2.33
3.12
19.85
23.96
2.24
3.79
18.83
24.15
6.71
10.26
12.10
7.06
10.65
12.24
6.63
10.08
11.49
6.56
9.90
11.21
6.69
10.25
11.89
7.02
10.61
12.02
6.59
10.02
11.33
6.89
10.32
11.79
6.73
10.26
11.87
6.72
10.21
11.62
1st
2nd
3rd
2nd
93.50
94.23
93.98
102.22
108.72
108.13
89.72
102.05
100.61
93.99
105.36
104.55
102.88
108.69
107.87
103.60
110.17
109.42
267
286
275
312
316
305
297
307
295
271
304
296
296
314
311
287
218
322
246
308
249
303
250
329
335
363
359
380
385
401
391
363
369
387
367
4.06
4.31
4.18
4.10
4.50
4.37
5.45
8.75
9.96
Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Industrial Sector ............................................................
Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
105.00
111.00
110.50
105.00
111.00
110.50
104.00
109.25
109.00
103.00
108.00
107.75
104.00
109.00
108.75
313
322
313
307
324
316
294
324
320
296
318
314
306
319
309
318
267
324
263
325
262
325
263
322
259
337
342
387
366
361
367
397
376
383
388
408
394
376
382
409
398
362
368
410
411
4.10
4.25
4.12
3.37
3.42
3.32
2.53
2.52
2.45
2.06
2.21
2.14
2.31
2.49
2.41
5.15
9.15
11.96
4.94
9.71
15.51
4.53
8.51
10.44
4.12
8.05
9.55
3.28
7.59
10.92
2.34
5.02
15.88
20.79
2.42
4.92
18.29
23.37
2.46
4.76
20.10
22.74
2.37
4.13
20.05
22.86
2.41
3.25
20.54
23.43
6.63
9.97
11.19
6.86
10.38
11.95
7.36
10.76
12.18
6.68
10.07
11.82
6.52
9.96
11.55
4th
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
2012
2013
Year
2012
2013
21.55
10.08
3.67
2.96
3.34
1.49
65.62
35.31
29.83
5.48
13.31
4.29
12.71
87.16
22.18
10.68
3.78
2.93
3.25
1.54
66.97
36.55
30.85
5.70
13.45
4.43
12.53
89.15
22.29
10.84
3.95
2.86
3.13
1.52
67.75
36.39
30.59
5.79
13.64
4.51
13.21
90.05
54.06
51.85
52.60
53.66
45.10
18.99
0.33
2.24
13.94
4.30
5.30
45.64
5.03
0.78
10.86
10.26
18.71
90.74
45.63
18.91
0.33
2.21
13.92
4.72
5.55
44.85
5.03
0.78
10.57
10.55
17.92
90.48
45.56
18.84
0.30
2.23
14.27
4.48
5.45
42.36
4.64
0.75
9.79
10.21
16.96
87.92
45.20
18.76
0.32
2.20
13.93
4.56
5.44
43.68
4.79
0.76
10.21
10.44
17.49
88.88
45.17
18.88
0.33
2.19
13.74
4.58
5.44
44.87
4.92
0.77
10.65
10.49
18.04
90.04
-0.41
-0.08
-0.14
-0.63
-0.14
0.28
0.49
0.63
0.50
-0.24
-0.40
-0.15
0.12
0.16
0.49
0.76
-0.02
-0.11
-0.14
-0.27
0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
1,094
2,679
1,106
2,665
1,060
2,642
1,056
2,593
1,064
2,643
1,060
2,642
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
21.46
9.73
3.67
2.99
3.61
1.47
65.91
35.31
29.78
5.53
13.35
4.36
12.89
87.37
21.16
9.97
3.42
2.98
3.34
1.45
64.86
34.62
29.20
5.42
13.35
4.33
12.56
86.03
21.26
10.01
3.71
2.94
3.10
1.49
65.54
35.40
29.99
5.42
13.25
4.22
12.67
86.79
22.29
10.58
3.86
2.94
3.34
1.57
66.16
35.89
30.35
5.54
13.30
4.26
12.71
88.46
22.36
10.72
3.78
2.94
3.35
1.56
66.71
36.49
30.80
5.69
13.43
4.31
12.48
89.07
22.22
10.69
3.75
2.94
3.30
1.54
67.12
36.93
31.26
5.67
13.36
4.41
12.42
89.34
21.88
10.56
3.73
2.92
3.10
1.56
67.06
36.55
30.84
5.71
13.49
4.47
12.54
88.93
22.28
10.73
3.86
2.90
3.26
1.52
66.98
36.24
30.50
5.74
13.54
4.52
12.68
89.26
22.23
10.73
3.86
2.88
3.25
1.51
67.23
36.22
30.46
5.76
13.53
4.48
12.99
89.46
22.24
10.84
3.90
2.86
3.12
1.51
67.73
36.32
30.55
5.77
13.68
4.51
13.22
89.97
22.21
10.81
4.01
2.85
3.00
1.54
67.89
36.42
30.64
5.79
13.66
4.52
13.29
90.11
22.49
10.97
4.04
2.83
3.13
1.52
68.14
36.57
30.73
5.84
13.69
4.53
13.35
90.63
52.06
51.41
51.39
52.56
52.58
52.41
52.39
53.02
53.24
53.65
53.68
44.49
18.75
0.30
2.15
14.12
3.92
5.25
42.48
4.49
0.74
9.78
10.39
17.07
86.97
45.88
18.84
0.30
2.29
14.69
4.32
5.44
42.77
4.76
0.77
9.57
10.00
17.68
88.65
45.66
18.68
0.30
2.23
14.06
4.82
5.57
42.56
4.75
0.77
9.82
10.27
16.95
88.22
45.46
18.41
0.32
2.20
13.68
5.27
5.58
42.96
4.72
0.74
10.14
10.42
16.95
88.42
44.38
18.77
0.32
2.14
13.65
4.18
5.32
43.75
4.64
0.75
10.17
10.65
17.55
88.13
45.22
18.97
0.32
2.24
14.19
4.20
5.30
44.30
4.91
0.77
10.36
10.20
18.07
89.52
45.72
18.87
0.32
2.21
14.18
4.60
5.55
43.71
4.90
0.77
10.18
10.48
17.37
89.43
45.49
18.75
0.33
2.19
13.61
5.06
5.55
44.08
4.84
0.75
10.61
10.48
17.39
89.57
44.44
18.86
0.33
2.12
13.50
4.27
5.37
44.89
4.76
0.76
10.57
10.67
18.14
89.34
0.29
0.18
1.39
1.85
0.32
0.36
-0.91
-0.23
-0.21
-0.24
-0.20
-0.65
-0.30
-0.34
-0.58
-1.21
-0.14
0.27
0.46
0.58
0.56
-0.15
-0.24
0.17
0.09
0.01
0.01
0.11
1,085
2,656
1,056
2,593
1,075
2,634
1,102
2,692
1,115
2,680
1,064
2,643
1,056
2,634
1,081
2,668
2011
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Monthly OECD supply and consumption does not yet include Chile, Estonia, Israel, or Slovenia.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
2012
2013
Year
2012
2013
16.71
3.67
2.96
10.08
17.39
3.78
2.93
10.68
17.65
3.95
2.86
10.84
5.29
0.77
3.00
1.07
0.45
4.85
0.76
2.69
0.93
0.46
5.02
0.78
2.82
0.97
0.45
5.22
0.77
2.95
1.04
0.45
3.91
1.89
0.90
0.21
4.04
1.98
0.94
0.21
4.29
2.01
1.08
0.26
4.18
2.01
1.01
0.24
4.03
1.94
0.97
0.22
13.68
0.98
1.77
10.43
0.26
0.50
13.66
0.96
1.81
10.39
0.27
0.51
13.69
0.94
1.85
10.40
0.27
0.51
13.31
0.99
1.64
10.23
0.22
0.45
13.45
1.05
1.63
10.28
0.24
0.49
13.64
0.97
1.79
10.38
0.27
0.50
1.48
0.88
0.35
0.20
1.48
0.88
0.35
0.20
1.48
0.88
0.35
0.20
1.48
0.89
0.34
0.20
1.43
0.89
0.33
0.16
1.36
0.88
0.25
0.18
1.48
0.88
0.35
0.20
9.02
0.53
4.52
0.94
0.97
0.65
0.37
9.02
0.53
4.48
0.95
0.97
0.67
0.37
9.07
0.54
4.51
0.95
0.97
0.68
0.38
9.12
0.56
4.52
0.95
0.97
0.70
0.39
9.09
0.53
4.53
0.94
0.97
0.68
0.39
8.67
0.48
4.29
0.94
0.97
0.61
0.32
8.92
0.55
4.43
0.94
0.97
0.64
0.36
9.07
0.54
4.51
0.95
0.97
0.68
0.38
2.25
0.70
0.34
0.25
0.06
2.25
0.69
0.34
0.25
0.06
2.44
0.69
0.33
0.25
0.25
2.61
0.68
0.33
0.25
0.43
2.61
0.68
0.33
0.26
0.44
2.63
0.67
0.35
0.26
0.44
2.60
0.71
0.30
0.24
0.43
2.28
0.70
0.34
0.25
0.09
2.58
0.68
0.34
0.26
0.39
52.41
52.39
53.02
53.24
53.65
53.68
54.06
51.85
52.60
53.66
5.67
58.08
5.71
58.10
5.74
58.76
5.76
59.00
5.77
59.42
5.79
59.47
5.84
59.90
5.48
57.33
5.70
58.30
5.79
59.45
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
16.39
3.67
2.99
9.73
16.38
3.42
2.98
9.97
16.66
3.71
2.94
10.01
17.38
3.86
2.94
10.58
17.45
3.78
2.94
10.72
17.38
3.75
2.94
10.69
17.22
3.73
2.92
10.56
17.50
3.86
2.90
10.73
17.47
3.86
2.88
10.73
17.61
3.90
2.86
10.84
17.67
4.01
2.85
10.81
17.84
4.04
2.83
10.97
4.80
0.78
2.67
0.88
0.47
4.79
0.71
2.68
0.94
0.46
4.84
0.78
2.67
0.94
0.46
4.95
0.79
2.75
0.96
0.45
4.96
0.77
2.79
0.95
0.44
4.98
0.78
2.78
0.96
0.45
5.06
0.79
2.84
0.98
0.45
5.08
0.78
2.85
1.01
0.45
5.14
0.78
2.90
1.02
0.45
5.18
0.77
2.93
1.03
0.45
5.24
0.78
2.97
1.05
0.45
Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................
4.54
2.10
1.23
0.27
4.27
1.94
1.13
0.27
4.06
1.94
0.91
0.25
4.30
2.03
1.07
0.24
4.30
2.06
1.05
0.24
4.22
2.05
1.01
0.24
4.02
1.91
0.96
0.23
4.18
1.99
1.04
0.23
4.16
1.95
1.07
0.23
4.02
1.95
0.95
0.22
13.35
1.00
1.67
10.22
0.22
0.45
13.35
1.00
1.65
10.24
0.22
0.45
13.25
0.97
1.63
10.19
0.22
0.45
13.30
0.98
1.61
10.25
0.23
0.46
13.43
0.96
1.63
10.35
0.24
0.48
13.36
0.99
1.62
10.25
0.24
0.50
13.49
1.14
1.63
10.23
0.25
0.50
13.54
1.12
1.64
10.28
0.25
0.50
13.53
1.00
1.75
10.29
0.26
0.50
1.56
0.89
0.38
0.24
1.40
0.87
0.38
0.10
1.44
0.90
0.34
0.15
1.34
0.89
0.23
0.16
1.28
0.89
0.20
0.14
1.34
0.88
0.22
0.19
1.37
0.88
0.25
0.19
1.46
0.88
0.33
0.19
8.81
0.46
4.36
0.95
0.99
0.66
0.33
8.63
0.45
4.33
0.95
0.97
0.58
0.31
8.54
0.46
4.22
0.94
0.97
0.59
0.31
8.69
0.55
4.26
0.94
0.96
0.61
0.34
8.79
0.55
4.31
0.94
0.97
0.65
0.34
8.89
0.55
4.41
0.94
0.97
0.63
0.36
8.98
0.56
4.47
0.94
0.97
0.63
0.37
Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................
2.61
0.71
0.30
0.25
0.46
2.59
0.71
0.30
0.23
0.43
2.59
0.70
0.29
0.24
0.43
2.61
0.70
0.32
0.25
0.42
2.38
0.70
0.34
0.25
0.19
2.25
0.70
0.34
0.25
0.06
52.06
51.41
51.39
52.56
52.58
5.53
57.59
5.42
56.83
5.42
56.81
5.54
58.10
5.69
58.27
2011
- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
2012
2013
Year
2012
2013
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.66
2.60
2.48
0.47
2.13
0.85
9.42
2.57
2.20
29.83
30.85
30.59
5.84
5.48
5.70
5.79
36.42
36.57
35.31
36.55
36.39
7.24
2.69
24.13
34.05
7.30
2.68
24.15
34.14
7.37
2.68
24.18
34.23
5.56
2.70
24.60
32.85
33.64
34.09
0.00
0.00
3.50
3.50
0.00
0.00
3.50
3.50
0.00
0.00
3.50
3.50
0.00
0.00
3.02
3.02
2.79
3.50
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Crude Oil
Algeria ..........................................
Angola ..........................................
Ecudaor ........................................
Iran ...............................................
Iraq ...............................................
Kuwait ...........................................
Libya .............................................
Nigeria ..........................................
Qatar ............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ...............................
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.78
1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.50
0.17
2.15
0.85
9.13
2.60
2.20
29.20
1.27
1.70
0.49
3.65
2.63
2.53
0.07
2.19
0.85
9.80
2.60
2.20
29.99
1.27
1.78
0.50
3.58
2.70
2.55
0.55
2.03
0.85
9.70
2.63
2.20
30.35
1.27
1.78
0.50
3.40
2.64
2.58
1.17
2.12
0.85
9.80
2.50
2.20
30.80
31.26
30.84
30.50
30.46
30.55
30.64
30.73
5.53
5.42
5.42
5.54
5.69
5.67
5.71
5.74
5.76
5.77
5.79
35.31
34.62
35.40
35.89
36.49
36.93
36.55
36.24
36.22
36.32
6.19
2.70
24.56
33.45
5.18
2.70
24.58
32.46
5.22
2.69
24.62
32.54
5.65
2.70
24.62
32.97
6.33
2.70
24.18
33.21
6.74
2.69
24.23
33.66
6.90
2.68
24.28
33.87
6.99
2.68
24.13
33.80
7.17
2.69
24.10
33.96
0.00
0.00
3.26
3.26
0.00
0.00
2.55
2.55
0.02
0.00
2.60
2.62
0.00
0.00
2.41
2.41
0.00
0.00
2.40
2.40
0.00
0.00
3.03
3.03
0.00
0.00
3.30
3.30
0.00
0.00
3.50
3.50
2011
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria (Africa); Ecuador and Venezuela (South America); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United
Arab Emirates (Middle East).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
2012
2013
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23.40
2.25
2.05
19.09
22.97
2.15
2.06
18.75
23.23
2.29
2.09
18.84
23.03
2.23
2.11
18.68
22.69
2.20
2.06
18.41
23.03
2.14
2.11
18.77
23.31
2.24
2.09
18.97
23.19
2.21
2.10
18.87
23.05
2.19
2.10
18.75
23.10
2.12
2.12
18.86
23.33
2.24
2.09
18.99
23.22
2.21
2.10
18.91
6.26
2.50
6.49
2.59
6.51
2.65
6.49
2.64
6.44
2.61
6.68
2.71
6.70
2.77
6.68
2.75
6.70
2.74
6.94
2.84
6.97
2.90
Europe .......................................................................
14.93
14.86
15.45
14.83
14.42
14.40
14.96
14.95
14.36
14.25
4.57
3.09
4.49
3.05
4.76
3.22
4.75
3.22
4.72
3.19
4.64
3.15
4.91
3.33
4.90
3.32
4.84
3.26
6.78
7.53
8.13
7.39
7.33
7.71
8.23
7.52
28.55
9.99
4.86
3.36
27.29
9.78
3.92
3.35
27.26
9.57
4.32
3.07
28.39
9.82
4.82
3.32
29.35
10.14
5.27
3.46
28.22
10.17
4.18
3.48
27.98
10.36
4.20
3.16
Africa ..........................................................................
3.36
3.34
3.31
3.35
3.47
3.45
46.23
41.62
44.49
42.48
45.88
42.77
45.66
42.56
45.46
42.96
87.84
86.97
88.65
88.22
109.5
3.6
101.5
2.2
121.6
5.6
109.9
2.8
101.8
1.5
122.4
4.7
110.8
2.9
102.4
1.6
123.7
4.8
96.28
-1.9
94.59
-5.2
95.08
-3.9
2011
2012
2013
23.15
2.23
2.08
18.84
23.06
2.20
2.09
18.76
23.18
2.19
2.10
18.88
6.95
2.89
6.44
2.59
6.63
2.71
6.89
2.85
14.72
14.70
15.02
14.68
14.51
4.76
3.21
5.03
3.40
5.03
3.39
4.64
3.14
4.79
3.25
4.92
3.32
7.39
7.92
8.48
7.68
7.46
7.70
7.87
28.73
10.18
4.60
3.41
29.62
10.61
5.06
3.56
28.77
10.57
4.27
3.54
28.65
10.86
4.30
3.25
29.30
10.57
4.72
3.51
27.87
9.79
4.48
3.28
28.57
10.21
4.56
3.38
29.08
10.65
4.58
3.46
3.43
3.46
3.62
3.59
3.57
3.60
3.34
3.45
3.59
44.38
43.75
45.22
44.30
45.72
43.71
45.49
44.08
44.44
44.89
45.10
45.64
45.63
44.85
45.56
42.36
45.20
43.68
45.17
44.87
88.42
88.13
89.52
89.43
89.57
89.34
90.74
90.48
87.92
88.88
90.04
111.4
2.5
102.6
1.3
124.9
4.1
112.2
2.5
102.9
1.3
126.6
4.1
113.1
2.9
103.2
1.5
128.5
5.0
114.1
3.0
103.7
1.3
130.4
5.4
115.0
3.3
104.2
1.6
132.0
5.7
116.0
3.4
104.7
1.8
133.7
5.6
117.1
3.5
105.3
2.0
135.8
5.7
118.3
3.7
106.0
2.3
137.7
5.7
119.4
3.8
106.8
2.5
139.6
5.7
110.4
3.0
102.1
1.6
123.2
4.8
113.6
2.9
103.5
1.4
129.4
5.0
117.7
3.6
105.7
2.2
136.7
5.7
97.69
0.8
97.77
1.6
97.68
3.3
97.77
2.8
97.74
0.1
97.77
0.0
97.58
-0.1
97.51
-0.3
97.42
-0.3
95.91
-2.6
97.74
1.9
97.57
-0.2
- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................
2nd
2012
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
5.53
0.57
1.45
3.51
8.68
0.00
-0.32
0.36
14.23
5.60
0.59
1.35
3.66
8.95
0.00
0.05
0.23
14.81
5.57
0.53
1.20
3.84
9.07
0.33
0.29
0.24
15.50
5.95
0.60
1.28
4.07
8.80
0.00
0.01
0.02
14.78
6.14
0.59
1.32
4.22
8.65
0.00
-0.36
0.09
14.52
6.21
0.54
1.33
4.34
8.69
0.00
-0.02
0.10
14.98
6.10
0.50
1.24
4.37
8.88
0.00
0.15
0.07
15.21
6.25
0.55
1.30
4.40
8.16
0.00
0.17
0.05
14.62
6.30
0.56
1.31
4.44
8.15
0.00
-0.27
0.09
14.27
6.35
0.53
1.33
4.49
8.60
0.00
0.04
0.14
15.13
6.32
0.47
1.30
4.55
8.76
0.00
0.14
0.07
15.29
6.46
0.53
1.32
4.60
8.03
0.00
0.15
0.04
14.69
5.66
0.57
1.32
3.77
8.87
0.08
0.01
0.21
14.83
6.17
0.54
1.30
4.33
8.59
0.00
-0.01
0.08
14.83
6.36
0.52
1.32
4.52
8.39
0.00
0.02
0.09
14.85
1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.60
19.08
1.06
2.19
0.94
0.89
0.19
0.02
0.06
-0.08
0.65
-0.11
0.83
-0.31
0.01
-0.62
-0.03
-0.38
-0.46
18.75
1.13
2.18
0.94
0.90
0.19
-0.77
-0.03
-0.05
0.63
-0.11
0.59
-0.37
-0.03
-0.75
-0.22
-0.45
-0.33
18.84
1.12
2.32
0.98
0.94
0.21
-1.04
-0.03
0.02
0.60
-0.15
0.57
-0.52
-0.05
-0.90
-0.08
-0.50
0.31
18.68
1.06
2.37
0.96
0.91
0.20
-0.80
-0.05
-0.03
0.55
-0.09
0.54
-0.29
-0.09
-0.77
-0.12
-0.44
0.15
18.45
1.06
2.31
0.93
0.89
0.18
-0.39
-0.01
-0.12
0.64
-0.08
0.65
-0.23
-0.03
-0.67
-0.08
-0.47
-0.28
18.79
1.08
2.26
0.93
0.90
0.19
-0.40
-0.02
-0.11
0.68
-0.10
0.66
-0.26
-0.01
-0.63
-0.15
-0.46
-0.29
18.97
1.07
2.28
0.94
0.90
0.19
-0.62
-0.02
-0.11
0.62
-0.09
0.60
-0.47
-0.02
-0.62
-0.08
-0.43
0.38
18.87
1.05
2.25
0.94
0.91
0.19
-0.31
-0.02
-0.07
0.60
-0.09
0.59
-0.38
0.02
-0.57
-0.03
-0.37
0.36
18.75
1.06
2.29
0.94
0.91
0.20
-0.31
-0.01
-0.10
0.63
-0.09
0.69
-0.32
-0.01
-0.62
-0.02
-0.46
-0.45
18.86
1.08
2.26
0.94
0.91
0.21
-0.52
-0.01
-0.06
0.67
-0.08
0.64
-0.34
-0.02
-0.67
-0.16
-0.46
-0.27
18.99
1.07
2.29
0.94
0.90
0.21
-0.64
-0.02
-0.06
0.62
-0.08
0.62
-0.54
-0.03
-0.63
-0.09
-0.42
0.35
18.91
1.08
2.18
0.95
0.91
0.19
-0.44
0.00
-0.02
0.62
-0.12
0.66
-0.37
-0.03
-0.68
-0.08
-0.43
0.03
18.83
1.07
2.31
0.94
0.90
0.19
-0.55
-0.03
-0.09
0.62
-0.09
0.61
-0.32
-0.04
-0.67
-0.11
-0.45
-0.01
18.77
1.06
2.27
0.94
0.91
0.20
-0.44
-0.02
-0.07
0.63
-0.09
0.63
-0.39
-0.01
-0.62
-0.08
-0.43
-0.01
18.88
0.10
2.45
0.06
0.11
1.95
-0.03
0.08
1.98
0.00
0.07
2.30
-0.03
0.08
2.36
0.08
0.09
2.01
0.02
0.11
2.06
0.00
0.11
2.32
0.00
0.10
2.45
0.01
0.09
2.00
0.00
0.11
2.08
0.00
0.11
2.34
0.00
0.09
2.17
0.00
0.10
2.19
0.03
0.10
2.21
0.00
8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09
8.86
1.47
3.75
0.52
2.11
18.75
8.87
1.48
3.78
0.37
2.26
18.84
8.60
1.38
3.93
0.44
1.98
18.68
8.46
1.34
3.80
0.40
1.91
18.41
8.80
1.42
3.81
0.48
2.13
18.77
8.85
1.46
3.88
0.40
2.21
18.97
8.59
1.42
4.01
0.44
1.97
18.87
8.37
1.41
4.02
0.51
1.89
18.75
8.81
1.44
3.88
0.52
2.12
18.86
8.83
1.45
3.92
0.39
2.21
18.99
8.57
1.42
4.05
0.43
1.98
18.91
8.74
1.43
3.85
0.48
2.08
18.84
8.67
1.41
3.88
0.43
2.06
18.76
8.65
1.43
3.97
0.46
2.05
18.88
................................
8.74
8.97
8.29
7.76
7.84
8.30
8.48
7.54
7.84
8.28
8.25
7.40
8.44
8.04
7.94
362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0
358.5
15.3
105.3
91.9
21.2
215.2
56.4
158.8
42.3
143.7
37.4
50.5
1,081
727
0.0
331.8
16.8
132.5
89.1
20.7
216.1
57.1
159.0
46.0
153.7
34.6
43.8
1,085
696
0.0
330.9
17.6
111.1
79.1
21.3
224.3
61.4
162.8
41.7
149.7
34.1
45.8
1,056
696
1.0
363.2
14.5
100.0
88.8
25.4
220.7
57.0
163.7
40.0
134.7
35.3
51.9
1,075
696
1.0
365.1
16.0
136.9
86.0
24.7
215.1
56.8
158.3
40.5
132.4
34.4
50.7
1,102
696
1.0
351.5
16.5
158.3
85.2
25.2
215.5
56.4
159.1
42.2
142.8
34.3
43.6
1,115
696
1.0
335.8
14.4
119.5
80.0
24.5
223.6
57.4
166.2
40.3
144.7
36.7
44.5
1,064
696
1.0
359.7
14.0
85.4
89.5
25.9
223.2
56.3
166.9
40.9
127.7
36.3
53.5
1,056
696
1.0
356.1
15.6
124.6
87.4
25.2
218.3
57.8
160.4
41.8
137.2
36.8
50.7
1,094
696
1.0
343.6
16.4
149.6
85.5
25.7
216.3
57.9
158.4
43.2
147.1
35.3
43.6
1,106
696
1.0
329.7
14.0
114.3
79.6
25.0
226.2
60.1
166.1
41.2
149.0
37.0
44.4
1,060
696
1.0
330.9
17.6
111.1
79.1
21.3
224.3
61.4
162.8
41.7
149.7
34.1
45.8
1,056
696
1.0
335.8
14.4
119.5
80.0
24.5
223.6
57.4
166.2
40.3
144.7
36.7
44.5
1,064
696
1.0
329.7
14.0
114.3
79.6
25.0
226.2
60.1
166.1
41.2
149.0
37.0
44.4
1,060
696
1.0
- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
2013
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78
14.81
0.18
0.26
1.01
0.63
0.82
0.00
17.72
15.50
0.17
0.27
1.04
0.66
0.54
0.00
18.18
14.78
0.17
0.39
1.03
0.74
0.44
0.00
17.55
14.52
0.17
0.33
0.99
0.37
0.43
0.00
16.81
14.98
0.17
0.26
1.01
0.65
0.70
0.00
17.78
15.21
0.17
0.27
1.01
0.69
0.65
0.00
17.98
14.62
0.18
0.38
1.02
0.67
0.53
0.00
17.40
14.27
0.16
0.33
1.02
0.49
0.56
0.00
16.83
15.13
0.17
0.25
1.06
0.65
0.75
0.00
18.01
15.29
0.17
0.26
1.05
0.69
0.65
0.00
18.11
14.69
0.18
0.38
1.06
0.68
0.53
0.00
17.51
14.83
0.17
0.32
1.01
0.63
0.60
0.00
17.56
14.83
0.17
0.31
1.01
0.60
0.58
0.00
17.49
14.85
0.17
0.30
1.05
0.63
0.62
0.00
17.62
1.03
1.06
1.13
1.12
1.06
1.06
1.08
1.07
1.05
1.06
1.08
1.07
1.08
1.07
1.06
0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80
0.81
9.12
1.49
4.31
0.55
2.50
18.78
0.74
9.19
1.55
4.63
0.56
2.64
19.31
0.42
9.06
1.39
4.78
0.51
2.51
18.67
0.51
8.58
1.41
4.41
0.53
2.41
17.86
0.80
9.00
1.45
4.45
0.56
2.59
18.84
0.73
9.07
1.49
4.62
0.55
2.59
19.06
0.41
9.03
1.43
4.65
0.55
2.41
18.47
0.51
8.68
1.39
4.40
0.54
2.35
17.88
0.80
9.11
1.45
4.61
0.55
2.54
19.07
0.73
9.13
1.49
4.70
0.54
2.60
19.19
0.41
9.10
1.42
4.70
0.54
2.41
18.58
0.62
9.03
1.45
4.49
0.54
2.51
18.64
0.61
8.92
1.44
4.53
0.55
2.50
18.56
0.61
9.01
1.44
4.60
0.54
2.48
18.68
14.69
17.70
0.83
15.22
17.74
0.86
15.93
17.74
0.90
15.27
17.73
0.86
14.84
17.38
0.85
15.21
17.35
0.88
15.51
17.35
0.89
14.97
17.35
0.86
14.60
17.35
0.84
15.44
17.35
0.89
15.62
17.35
0.90
15.05
17.35
0.87
15.28
17.73
0.86
15.13
17.35
0.87
15.18
17.35
0.88
- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
312
297
271
296
313
307
294
296
306
303
289
287
303
298
377
380
365
365
400
380
385
364
364
349
355
377
363
369
337
329
317
337
368
337
342
363
355
345
321
390
361
367
382
376
369
375
409
383
388
374
371
360
371
403
376
382
363
355
345
355
390
362
368
362
356
345
347
385
361
367
372
369
359
365
397
373
379
371
369
357
370
400
373
379
359
351
341
353
385
358
364
352
350
336
342
375
353
358
371
364
355
355
398
371
376
366
361
350
359
392
367
372
55.1
49.5
73.5
6.6
30.4
215.2
56.4
49.9
75.0
5.9
28.9
216.1
59.1
52.1
75.8
7.6
29.6
224.3
58.3
53.2
71.8
6.6
30.8
220.7
56.6
51.4
72.1
6.7
28.4
215.1
56.5
51.0
73.0
6.5
28.5
215.5
59.7
50.6
76.1
6.9
30.3
223.6
58.6
51.2
76.7
6.6
30.0
223.2
58.2
50.8
74.3
6.3
28.7
218.3
57.1
50.2
74.0
6.3
28.8
216.3
61.7
50.9
77.9
6.7
29.1
226.2
59.1
52.1
75.8
7.6
29.6
224.3
59.7
50.6
76.1
6.9
30.3
223.6
61.7
50.9
77.9
6.7
29.1
226.2
56.4
57.1
61.4
57.0
56.8
56.4
57.4
56.3
57.8
57.9
60.1
61.4
57.4
60.1
158.8
159.0
162.8
163.7
158.3
159.1
166.2
166.9
160.4
158.4
166.1
162.8
166.2
166.1
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2012
2013
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
63.83
1.12
5.60
57.10
60.83
11.04
9.80
1.23
4.51
6.53
0.19
16.98
84.53
-0.62
83.91
65.96
1.00
5.23
59.73
62.75
8.95
7.89
1.05
4.16
4.79
0.14
-10.45
57.23
-0.62
56.61
66.30
0.86
4.54
60.90
63.10
8.97
8.20
0.77
3.82
5.15
0.16
-9.63
58.78
-0.11
58.67
68.74
1.02
4.58
63.14
65.32
8.94
8.16
0.78
4.04
4.90
0.18
-0.51
69.90
-1.77
68.13
69.16
1.02
4.63
63.51
65.88
9.27
8.61
0.66
4.49
4.78
0.19
10.85
81.69
-0.55
81.14
69.28
0.79
4.52
63.97
65.98
8.55
7.81
0.74
4.39
4.15
0.16
-8.52
61.77
-0.13
61.64
69.05
0.89
4.21
63.95
65.76
8.84
8.26
0.58
4.01
4.83
0.17
-7.17
63.59
-1.06
62.53
69.05
0.91
4.30
63.84
65.76
8.86
8.22
0.64
4.35
4.51
0.19
4.99
75.45
-0.06
75.39
69.32
0.97
4.63
63.71
66.02
10.10
9.31
0.79
4.75
5.36
0.19
16.41
87.97
-0.66
87.32
69.22
0.88
4.50
63.84
65.92
8.51
7.77
0.74
4.38
4.13
0.16
-10.82
59.39
0.96
60.35
69.20
0.95
4.32
63.94
65.90
8.84
8.27
0.58
4.11
4.74
0.17
-8.14
62.67
-0.38
62.28
69.43
0.95
4.42
64.06
66.12
8.98
8.34
0.64
4.46
4.52
0.19
4.78
75.60
-0.55
75.06
66.22
1.00
4.98
60.24
63.01
9.47
8.51
0.96
4.13
5.34
0.17
-0.97
67.55
-0.78
66.76
69.14
0.90
4.41
63.82
65.84
8.88
8.23
0.65
4.31
4.57
0.18
0.03
70.62
-0.45
70.17
69.30
0.94
4.47
63.89
65.99
9.10
8.42
0.69
4.42
4.68
0.18
0.50
71.35
-0.16
71.19
7.58
5.90
17.79
19.88
3.78
1.59
0.09
56.61
3.73
4.36
17.31
27.74
3.79
1.65
0.09
58.67
14.65
9.75
18.94
18.85
3.93
1.92
0.09
68.13
20.77
12.45
19.86
21.69
3.96
2.31
0.09
81.14
6.98
5.17
18.10
25.71
3.97
1.64
0.09
61.64
3.71
4.07
17.84
31.19
3.95
1.67
0.09
62.53
17.16
10.69
19.40
22.09
3.95
2.01
0.09
75.39
24.72
13.92
20.62
21.46
3.97
2.54
0.09
87.32
6.91
5.51
18.15
24.09
3.96
1.64
0.09
60.35
3.68
4.01
18.02
30.84
3.96
1.68
0.09
62.28
16.90
10.39
19.48
22.24
3.97
1.99
0.09
75.06
12.97
8.66
18.55
20.83
3.79
1.88
0.09
66.76
12.15
8.09
18.80
25.18
3.96
1.91
0.09
70.17
13.00
8.44
19.06
24.68
3.97
1.96
0.09
71.19
2,530
992
1,188
350
3,416
1,070
1,879
468
3,462
1,193
1,822
447
2,473
1,038
1,085
350
3,248
1,176
1,600
472
3,908
1,251
2,123
534
3,449
1,174
1,811
464
1,972
840
840
293
2,957
1,105
1,428
424
3,706
1,170
2,044
492
3,266
1,099
1,732
435
3,462
1,193
1,822
447
3,449
1,174
1,811
464
3,266
1,099
1,732
435
2011
Year
2012
1st
2013
- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
4.06
4.31
4.10
4.50
4.10
4.25
3.37
3.42
2.53
2.52
2.06
2.21
2.31
2.49
2.70
2.87
2.95
3.19
2.95
3.15
3.10
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.90
4.12
2.40
2.52
3.06
3.27
13.99
11.84
8.87
8.83
11.97
9.92
8.60
8.88
9.97
9.96
14.30
14.11
10.95
11.17
17.55
13.70
14.31
9.77
10.91
11.96
17.26
18.14
16.23
16.78
22.89
18.42
19.03
13.32
11.63
15.51
13.08
12.66
9.31
9.51
13.51
11.11
10.16
8.84
9.92
10.44
13.05
11.21
8.20
8.46
12.15
9.97
9.01
8.74
9.07
9.55
13.32
12.52
9.60
10.66
16.57
12.93
12.41
9.34
9.01
10.92
16.14
16.41
14.94
15.75
22.19
17.16
17.32
12.60
10.01
14.81
13.06
12.42
8.72
8.64
12.86
10.74
9.67
8.63
9.12
10.20
12.93
11.18
8.15
8.12
11.99
10.13
8.23
8.37
9.31
9.52
14.14
13.00
10.48
10.54
17.36
13.85
13.44
9.04
9.67
11.53
17.33
17.47
16.21
16.75
23.61
18.83
18.70
12.28
10.58
15.72
14.18
13.62
9.51
9.38
13.82
11.35
10.64
8.48
9.61
10.96
14.05
12.83
9.76
9.80
13.78
11.13
10.47
9.34
10.34
10.79
13.36
12.20
9.02
9.30
13.68
11.03
10.41
9.10
9.18
10.38
13.82
12.56
9.36
9.29
13.90
11.34
10.34
8.81
9.62
10.70
11.16
9.84
8.35
7.92
9.80
8.82
7.30
8.00
9.13
8.75
10.64
9.62
8.98
8.44
10.87
9.59
8.54
8.00
9.19
9.15
10.43
8.99
9.85
9.49
11.13
10.39
8.92
8.91
9.75
9.71
10.45
9.27
7.88
7.61
9.77
9.24
7.43
7.71
8.88
8.51
10.22
8.62
7.39
7.04
9.13
8.72
7.02
7.37
8.27
8.05
9.81
7.71
7.52
6.38
8.83
8.81
6.76
6.56
7.32
7.59
10.34
7.63
7.95
7.78
9.28
9.15
7.37
7.32
7.54
8.04
10.85
8.86
7.49
6.67
9.41
9.18
7.00
7.08
7.88
8.10
10.88
8.89
7.65
7.03
9.36
8.81
6.91
6.84
8.17
8.13
10.62
8.96
8.34
7.26
9.94
9.46
7.60
6.83
7.76
8.40
11.02
8.88
8.95
8.66
10.42
10.04
8.23
7.93
8.27
8.99
11.43
9.87
8.34
7.29
10.57
9.93
7.75
7.74
8.54
8.93
10.83
9.55
8.45
8.05
10.13
9.22
7.78
8.01
9.17
8.85
10.35
8.39
7.50
6.88
9.19
8.93
7.02
7.12
7.84
7.99
10.99
9.17
8.06
7.26
9.96
9.34
7.44
7.21
8.20
8.52
10.67
9.58
7.39
6.27
6.53
5.84
4.29
6.82
7.45
5.45
9.82
9.28
7.19
5.77
6.23
5.58
4.51
6.43
7.21
5.15
9.20
8.88
7.28
5.55
6.07
5.47
4.39
6.80
7.21
4.94
9.21
9.24
6.64
5.54
5.71
5.10
3.64
6.28
6.85
4.53
9.56
8.32
6.54
5.23
5.04
4.55
2.90
5.99
6.37
4.12
7.85
7.01
5.49
3.51
4.27
4.05
2.58
4.92
5.32
3.28
7.66
7.23
5.61
3.63
4.44
4.25
2.83
5.11
5.34
3.41
8.89
8.86
6.08
4.44
5.09
4.75
3.02
5.76
6.21
4.02
9.86
8.77
6.42
5.05
5.48
5.08
3.27
5.87
6.45
4.49
9.01
7.75
6.14
4.06
5.12
4.67
3.40
5.23
5.79
4.04
8.70
7.92
6.20
4.22
5.36
4.97
3.61
5.90
6.13
4.16
9.72
9.50
6.65
4.90
5.92
5.22
3.64
6.38
6.90
4.61
9.84
9.36
7.15
5.81
6.15
5.51
4.21
6.57
7.18
5.02
8.68
8.02
6.08
4.24
4.73
4.42
2.83
5.53
5.87
3.72
9.46
8.64
6.41
4.61
5.48
5.00
3.48
5.89
6.35
4.33
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2012
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
273.6
87.3
41.5
144.8
5.5
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
255.9
263.6
85.7
41.1
136.8
-1.1
3.4
27.0
17.8
9.1
239.0
274.6
81.8
45.0
147.8
1.6
3.6
26.0
16.5
9.5
253.9
282.5
82.1
42.6
157.7
1.8
2.7
27.7
18.0
9.6
259.3
257.1
81.3
39.8
136.0
0.4
2.3
26.2
17.3
8.9
233.7
231.3
73.0
35.2
123.0
0.5
3.1
25.4
17.2
8.1
209.5
245.6
75.7
33.3
136.7
3.8
4.3
24.7
15.8
8.9
229.0
248.2
76.7
34.1
137.4
-0.2
4.0
23.8
16.0
7.9
228.2
229.9
71.1
32.1
126.8
5.5
3.6
23.5
16.2
7.3
215.5
235.8
73.6
33.5
128.7
-1.1
3.6
24.8
17.1
7.7
213.5
243.5
71.4
33.8
138.4
1.6
4.4
24.5
16.5
8.0
225.1
245.9
71.8
33.4
140.6
-2.6
4.0
24.2
16.1
8.1
223.1
1094.3
336.9
170.3
587.1
7.9
13.1
107.3
69.5
37.6
1008.1
982.2
306.7
142.4
533.1
4.5
13.8
100.1
66.2
33.8
900.4
955.1
287.9
132.8
534.4
3.5
15.7
97.0
66.0
31.1
877.2
9.0
3.3
268.2
0.7
2.9
242.5
20.9
3.4
278.1
-31.1
3.0
231.2
-21.9
3.4
215.2
-13.1
3.2
199.5
11.3
3.2
243.5
-5.5
3.2
225.9
5.8
3.4
224.7
-11.3
3.2
205.4
11.3
3.2
239.6
-5.6
3.2
220.6
-0.6
12.5
1020.0
-29.3
13.0
884.1
0.1
12.9
890.3
5.2
234.8
14.5
1.0
13.5
254.6
5.4
223.5
12.8
0.6
12.1
241.7
5.4
261.5
12.7
0.5
12.2
279.7
5.4
208.6
13.1
0.6
12.5
227.1
6.5
188.4
13.0
0.7
12.3
207.8
6.5
179.1
13.0
0.6
12.4
198.6
7.4
223.5
12.6
0.8
11.8
243.5
7.2
205.0
13.7
1.2
12.4
225.9
7.5
203.5
13.7
1.2
12.5
224.7
7.4
184.6
13.4
0.8
12.6
205.4
8.1
218.7
12.8
0.8
11.9
239.6
7.8
199.1
13.8
1.2
12.5
220.6
21.4
928.6
53.1
2.8
50.3
1003.1
27.7
796.0
52.3
3.3
49.0
875.8
30.8
805.9
53.7
4.1
49.5
890.3
13.6
0.9
-1.5
4.0
7.4
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.0
8.2
0.0
45.4
174.1
165.7
5.9
2.0
43.8
153.2
144.4
5.9
2.4
41.9
184.3
175.1
6.0
2.6
41.5
206.2
199.6
4.2
1.8
41.0
219.4
212.0
4.5
2.3
37.2
208.1
200.2
5.1
2.2
37.4
213.6
205.3
5.4
2.3
32.0
207.8
200.5
4.7
2.1
33.0
219.1
211.2
4.9
2.5
31.4
207.8
199.3
5.4
2.5
34.0
213.4
204.7
5.7
2.5
41.9
184.3
175.1
6.0
2.6
37.4
213.6
205.3
5.4
2.3
34.0
213.4
204.7
5.7
2.5
5.22
5.22
5.22
5.22
5.12
5.12
5.12
5.12
4.97
4.97
4.97
4.97
5.22
5.12
4.97
0.257
0.261
0.266
0.264
0.274
0.302
0.313
0.301
0.316
0.326
0.311
0.298
0.262
0.298
0.313
2.34
2.42
2.46
2.37
2.41
2.34
2.32
2.27
2.30
2.25
2.24
2.19
2.40
2.33
2.24
Discrepancy (c)
- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2012
2013
2011
Year
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2013
12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.13
12.78
0.86
10.33
9.92
0.39
0.02
0.09
10.42
0.74
10.55
10.12
0.41
0.02
0.09
10.64
0.61
10.95
10.53
0.40
0.02
0.08
11.03
0.94
12.39
11.94
0.43
0.02
0.11
12.50
0.78
10.72
10.30
0.40
0.02
0.07
10.80
0.74
11.09
10.66
0.41
0.02
0.08
11.17
0.58
11.03
10.61
0.40
0.02
0.08
11.11
0.90
12.42
11.97
0.43
0.02
0.10
12.53
0.78
10.81
10.39
0.40
0.02
0.07
10.89
0.74
11.25
10.84
0.39
0.02
0.10
11.35
0.79
11.15
10.72
0.41
0.02
0.09
11.24
0.77
11.34
10.91
0.41
0.02
0.08
11.42
0.75
11.55
4.69
4.05
2.79
0.02
0.37
11.92
9.33
3.30
3.39
2.62
0.02
0.35
9.68
9.66
3.67
3.36
2.61
0.02
0.37
10.03
9.73
3.37
3.58
2.75
0.02
0.37
10.10
11.33
4.40
4.04
2.86
0.02
0.39
11.72
9.69
3.51
3.46
2.70
0.02
0.36
10.06
10.22
4.00
3.51
2.69
0.02
0.37
10.59
9.85
3.42
3.62
2.78
0.02
0.36
10.21
11.36
4.36
4.09
2.88
0.02
0.39
11.75
9.78
3.53
3.51
2.72
0.02
0.37
10.15
10.21
3.90
3.61
2.67
0.02
0.36
10.57
10.11
3.74
3.61
2.73
0.02
0.37
10.48
10.30
3.83
3.68
2.77
0.02
0.37
10.68
2.46
4.76
20.10
22.74
2.37
4.13
20.05
22.86
2.41
3.25
20.54
23.43
2.34
2.84
19.97
23.76
2.32
2.96
19.63
23.98
2.27
3.55
19.38
24.49
2.30
3.78
19.18
24.11
2.25
3.70
18.84
24.12
2.24
3.67
18.72
24.13
2.19
4.08
18.62
24.22
2.40
4.71
18.49
22.40
2.33
3.12
19.85
23.96
2.24
3.79
18.83
24.15
12.18
10.76
7.36
11.82
10.07
6.68
11.55
9.96
6.52
12.10
10.26
6.71
12.24
10.65
7.06
11.49
10.08
6.63
11.21
9.90
6.56
11.89
10.25
6.69
12.02
10.61
7.02
11.33
10.02
6.59
11.79
10.32
6.89
11.87
10.26
6.73
11.62
10.21
6.72
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
144
402
575
332
1,033
372
558
248
438
15
4,118
115
328
455
251
907
296
550
228
350
13
3,493
143
437
608
334
1,192
408
820
334
401
13
4,689
116
318
457
251
803
261
467
229
385
14
3,302
132
364
516
292
890
311
476
236
432
15
3,665
117
326
448
245
856
280
504
235
350
13
3,374
134
416
567
315
1,102
397
736
334
386
13
4,401
126
341
488
270
874
295
478
235
391
14
3,512
136
389
554
321
1,014
359
525
249
435
15
3,999
119
331
455
250
860
288
509
239
355
13
3,419
130
412
560
304
1,086
379
742
343
392
13
4,361
127
344
490
272
879
296
482
237
393
15
3,533
130
371
524
292
984
334
599
260
393
14
3,901
127
362
505
280
931
321
549
260
390
14
3,739
128
369
515
287
960
331
565
267
394
14
3,828
123
435
496
269
784
217
443
238
430
18
3,453
119
421
484
262
856
227
500
249
429
17
3,564
133
482
551
297
942
265
595
287
482
17
4,052
115
406
473
258
773
206
456
243
438
17
3,386
119
419
475
258
762
207
445
232
430
17
3,365
119
425
490
266
849
230
495
259
437
17
3,585
133
481
548
299
940
270
569
293
493
17
4,043
117
413
484
264
791
213
461
248
446
17
3,456
125
443
503
270
796
221
448
244
438
18
3,505
121
428
500
268
853
232
494
260
448
17
3,622
135
488
552
300
953
270
579
296
499
17
4,090
119
422
488
265
806
217
463
252
455
18
3,505
123
436
501
272
839
229
499
254
445
17
3,614
122
435
499
272
836
230
493
258
451
17
3,613
125
445
511
276
853
235
496
263
460
17
3,682
75
199
540
232
370
342
415
204
221
14
2,612
76
192
541
236
394
320
441
219
233
13
2,666
81
196
567
253
401
336
456
239
247
14
2,791
73
187
536
237
373
336
422
215
228
14
2,620
73
185
547
237
372
347
409
206
219
14
2,609
75
187
554
246
402
347
465
227
233
14
2,750
79
191
575
262
404
354
485
247
253
14
2,864
74
181
552
250
377
360
445
220
232
14
2,704
74
186
558
243
379
365
433
215
223
14
2,690
75
189
566
249
403
357
461
234
237
14
2,785
78
194
577
264
409
362
479
251
254
15
2,883
73
184
554
251
382
368
440
224
232
14
2,723
76
194
546
240
384
334
434
219
232
14
2,673
75
186
557
249
389
352
451
225
234
14
2,732
75
188
564
252
393
363
453
231
237
14
2,770
344
1,048
1,613
834
2,191
931
1,417
691
1,090
46
10,206
311
952
1,482
749
2,161
844
1,491
696
1,015
43
9,743
359
1,126
1,728
884
2,539
1,009
1,871
860
1,132
44
11,553
307
921
1,468
746
1,952
803
1,346
687
1,054
45
9,328
326
980
1,540
787
2,028
865
1,330
675
1,083
46
9,660
312
949
1,493
756
2,111
857
1,464
722
1,022
44
9,729
348
1,101
1,692
875
2,450
1,021
1,791
874
1,134
45
11,330
319
948
1,526
784
2,044
868
1,385
704
1,071
46
9,695
336
1,032
1,616
834
2,193
946
1,406
709
1,099
46
10,218
316
960
1,523
767
2,120
877
1,465
733
1,043
44
9,847
345
1,108
1,691
868
2,452
1,011
1,801
890
1,147
45
11,357
321
963
1,534
788
2,071
881
1,385
713
1,082
46
9,784
330
1,012
1,573
803
2,211
897
1,532
734
1,073
45
10,209
326
995
1,563
801
2,159
903
1,493
744
1,078
45
10,106
329
1,016
1,591
814
2,209
929
1,515
762
1,093
45
10,303
- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
15.94
15.16
10.98
9.01
10.73
9.60
10.01
9.75
12.18
11.19
16.10
15.98
12.04
10.52
11.43
10.21
10.76
10.83
12.53
11.95
15.94
16.48
12.20
11.16
11.62
10.23
10.79
11.23
13.70
12.18
15.94
15.76
11.93
9.80
11.23
10.51
10.53
10.21
12.56
11.82
16.00
14.97
11.61
9.56
11.15
9.86
10.32
10.10
12.22
11.55
16.21
15.79
12.24
10.73
11.74
10.22
10.73
10.94
12.55
12.10
16.10
16.58
12.36
11.20
11.87
10.08
10.68
11.13
13.49
12.24
15.95
15.47
11.55
9.59
11.13
9.69
9.92
9.96
12.22
11.49
15.73
15.26
11.13
9.15
10.98
9.47
9.57
9.72
12.02
11.21
15.82
16.17
11.92
10.45
11.46
9.96
10.31
10.72
12.49
11.89
15.78
16.74
11.98
10.98
11.56
9.84
10.40
10.92
13.38
12.02
15.60
15.57
11.20
9.40
10.95
9.47
9.84
9.84
12.03
11.33
15.98
15.86
11.78
10.13
11.26
10.11
10.55
10.57
12.74
11.79
16.06
15.73
11.94
10.29
11.49
9.97
10.45
10.59
12.61
11.87
15.73
15.95
11.56
9.98
11.25
9.68
10.07
10.36
12.47
11.62
14.38
13.23
9.30
7.60
9.40
9.54
8.55
8.25
10.89
9.97
14.37
13.76
9.62
8.47
9.51
9.73
8.65
9.01
12.29
10.38
14.49
14.52
9.63
8.96
9.62
9.81
8.90
9.29
13.71
10.76
14.05
13.00
9.34
7.77
9.53
9.79
8.43
8.66
11.46
10.07
14.01
12.56
9.54
7.87
9.52
9.63
8.37
8.41
10.87
9.96
14.36
13.08
9.72
8.46
9.65
9.59
8.35
9.01
11.89
10.26
14.96
14.06
9.75
8.84
9.73
9.71
8.47
9.16
13.35
10.65
14.24
12.97
9.49
7.88
9.53
9.67
8.38
8.37
11.59
10.08
13.97
12.72
9.39
7.86
9.34
9.43
8.52
8.16
10.75
9.90
14.06
13.32
9.72
8.55
9.53
9.46
8.63
8.86
11.70
10.25
14.56
14.20
9.74
8.90
9.62
9.53
8.71
9.06
13.03
10.61
14.10
13.01
9.43
7.88
9.44
9.39
8.54
8.29
11.27
10.02
14.33
13.66
9.48
8.23
9.52
9.72
8.65
8.83
12.14
10.32
14.41
13.20
9.63
8.28
9.61
9.65
8.40
8.77
11.97
10.26
14.19
13.34
9.58
8.32
9.49
9.46
8.61
8.62
11.73
10.21
12.67
8.46
6.45
5.77
6.52
5.81
5.78
5.59
7.34
6.63
12.61
8.21
6.56
6.13
6.76
6.16
6.03
6.08
7.73
6.86
12.99
8.34
6.78
6.64
7.11
6.82
6.63
6.87
8.70
7.36
12.41
7.67
6.54
5.78
6.57
5.94
5.77
5.80
7.82
6.68
12.19
7.55
6.50
5.88
6.48
5.77
5.49
5.64
7.27
6.52
12.70
8.02
6.67
6.23
6.84
5.92
5.34
6.00
7.48
6.71
12.91
8.54
6.82
6.58
7.16
6.14
5.54
6.68
8.39
7.06
12.78
8.20
6.53
5.87
6.63
5.68
5.44
6.00
7.65
6.63
12.95
8.28
6.45
5.86
6.57
5.62
5.58
5.68
7.22
6.56
12.71
8.34
6.49
6.13
6.66
5.85
5.66
5.93
7.49
6.69
12.90
8.58
6.62
6.47
7.00
6.03
5.89
6.51
8.45
7.02
12.74
8.15
6.33
5.78
6.52
5.55
5.69
6.04
7.72
6.59
12.68
8.17
6.59
6.09
6.75
6.18
6.07
6.11
7.92
6.89
12.65
8.08
6.63
6.15
6.79
5.87
5.45
6.10
7.72
6.73
12.83
8.34
6.47
6.07
6.70
5.76
5.71
6.06
7.74
6.72
14.63
13.05
8.94
7.65
9.54
8.19
8.31
8.00
10.68
9.61
14.55
13.39
9.24
8.42
9.81
8.54
8.65
8.68
11.32
9.98
14.70
14.19
9.60
9.13
10.17
8.99
9.18
9.37
12.61
10.52
14.34
12.86
9.12
7.82
9.66
8.42
8.32
8.28
11.06
9.74
14.37
12.50
9.15
7.90
9.67
8.16
8.18
8.15
10.68
9.63
14.62
13.00
9.34
8.47
9.97
8.31
8.21
8.69
11.10
9.89
14.90
14.03
9.63
9.01
10.27
8.62
8.59
9.21
12.28
10.36
14.54
12.93
9.07
7.83
9.68
8.02
7.97
8.16
10.96
9.63
14.43
12.85
8.97
7.77
9.63
7.98
8.01
7.96
10.53
9.53
14.38
13.29
9.18
8.38
9.77
8.16
8.28
8.54
11.00
9.81
14.62
14.13
9.42
8.89
10.05
8.40
8.66
9.06
12.13
10.24
14.35
12.97
8.87
7.73
9.55
7.82
8.09
8.10
10.78
9.54
14.56
13.41
9.24
8.28
9.81
8.55
8.66
8.63
11.44
9.98
14.62
13.15
9.31
8.32
9.92
8.29
8.26
8.60
11.27
9.90
14.45
13.33
9.12
8.21
9.76
8.10
8.28
8.45
11.13
9.80
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables (d) ............................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................
2012
2nd
2013
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
4.244
2.781
0.015
0.072
0.021
0.015
0.031
0.004
2.258
-0.016
3.795
3.063
0.024
0.073
0.024
0.015
0.032
0.002
2.185
-0.015
4.432
3.953
0.014
0.077
0.027
0.014
0.034
0.003
2.324
-0.020
4.047
2.925
0.013
0.070
0.021
0.017
0.030
0.003
2.156
-0.017
4.698
2.550
0.009
0.072
0.024
0.016
0.030
0.002
2.165
-0.016
3.986
3.195
0.013
0.065
0.023
0.012
0.027
0.002
2.162
-0.015
4.130
3.183
0.017
0.073
0.023
0.015
0.032
0.003
2.231
-0.017
0.654
0.047
0.005
0.377
0.032
0.048
0.020
10.303
0.750
0.047
0.006
0.402
0.034
0.048
0.020
10.662
0.878
0.046
0.018
0.444
0.031
0.050
0.021
10.612
0.696
0.047
0.019
0.323
0.037
0.051
0.021
11.975
0.642
0.047
0.006
0.395
0.036
0.050
0.020
10.390
0.885
0.046
0.005
0.328
0.029
0.047
0.019
10.836
0.793
0.047
0.009
0.371
0.030
0.048
0.020
10.724
0.741
0.047
0.012
0.391
0.034
0.050
0.020
10.912
0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.003
0.024
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.003
0.024
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023
0.050
0.231
0.023
0.005
0.054
0.248
0.025
0.006
0.051
0.228
0.025
0.004
0.052
0.232
0.025
0.008
0.052
0.224
0.023
0.005
0.055
0.245
0.026
0.006
0.052
0.227
0.025
0.005
0.050
0.223
0.022
0.005
0.051
0.235
0.024
0.005
0.053
0.232
0.025
0.006
0.006
0.075
0.002
0.010
0.402
10.952
0.004
0.077
0.003
0.009
0.426
12.388
0.005
0.075
0.003
0.009
0.400
10.725
0.006
0.075
0.002
0.009
0.409
11.093
0.007
0.073
0.002
0.010
0.396
11.030
0.004
0.077
0.003
0.009
0.425
12.424
0.006
0.075
0.003
0.009
0.402
10.814
0.005
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.390
11.249
0.005
0.075
0.002
0.009
0.408
11.155
0.006
0.075
0.002
0.009
0.408
11.342
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
4.879
2.062
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011
4.566
2.377
0.009
0.071
0.025
0.017
0.027
0.002
1.943
-0.016
5.260
3.360
0.010
0.078
0.026
0.016
0.035
0.002
2.288
-0.021
4.091
2.386
0.009
0.057
0.019
0.012
0.023
0.002
2.170
-0.016
3.746
2.782
0.013
0.055
0.019
0.011
0.024
0.002
2.186
-0.010
3.601
3.222
0.014
0.067
0.027
0.012
0.027
0.002
2.111
-0.014
4.463
3.934
0.012
0.072
0.028
0.012
0.030
0.003
2.258
-0.020
4.128
2.838
0.011
0.066
0.020
0.015
0.028
0.003
2.094
-0.017
0.912
0.047
0.002
0.330
0.030
0.044
0.018
10.660
1.059
0.045
0.007
0.384
0.026
0.048
0.020
10.539
0.859
0.044
0.007
0.235
0.032
0.048
0.020
12.220
0.714
0.046
0.004
0.363
0.027
0.048
0.019
9.917
0.789
0.047
0.004
0.411
0.030
0.046
0.019
10.118
0.976
0.047
0.013
0.397
0.027
0.048
0.020
10.528
0.755
0.048
0.014
0.300
0.033
0.049
0.021
11.937
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.003
0.024
0.002
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.002
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.051
0.220
0.021
0.006
0.048
0.220
0.022
0.005
0.057
0.229
0.023
0.005
0.046
0.224
0.023
0.004
0.049
0.234
0.024
0.007
0.005
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.387
11.070
0.006
0.071
0.002
0.009
0.383
10.944
0.004
0.074
0.002
0.009
0.403
12.647
0.005
0.073
0.002
0.009
0.386
10.326
0.006
0.075
0.002
0.009
0.406
10.546
1st
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2012
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
2.60
15.83
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.45
19.02
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.00
2.83
26.82
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00
2.26
17.99
0.10
0.03
0.02
0.05
0.00
2.06
20.76
0.10
0.03
0.02
0.05
0.00
1.96
24.73
0.12
0.04
0.02
0.05
0.00
2.42
30.20
0.13
0.05
0.02
0.06
0.00
2.22
20.90
0.12
0.03
0.03
0.05
0.01
2.25
20.17
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.02
22.96
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.00
2.37
29.69
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.16
20.97
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.53
19.94
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.00
2.17
24.15
0.12
0.04
0.02
0.05
0.00
2.20
23.47
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.02
1.52
0.01
0.02
1.54
0.01
0.03
1.59
0.01
0.02
1.54
0.00
0.02
1.59
0.01
0.02
1.60
0.01
0.02
1.71
0.01
0.02
1.56
0.00
0.02
1.54
0.01
0.02
1.54
0.01
0.02
1.69
0.01
0.02
1.55
0.01
0.02
1.55
0.01
0.02
1.61
0.01
0.02
1.58
0.01
2.62
17.45
0.16
2.47
20.66
0.13
2.86
28.51
0.15
2.28
19.64
0.11
2.08
22.45
0.11
1.98
26.42
0.13
2.44
32.02
0.14
2.24
22.56
0.12
2.27
21.80
0.14
2.04
24.60
0.14
2.39
31.48
0.15
2.18
22.62
0.13
2.56
21.59
0.14
2.19
25.87
0.12
2.22
25.15
0.14
175.1
15.5
17.1
2.3
199.6
16.4
17.0
1.6
212.0
17.5
17.0
1.8
200.2
16.3
17.1
2.0
205.3
15.4
17.2
2.0
200.5
14.4
16.7
2.2
211.2
15.6
16.6
2.3
199.3
14.7
16.7
2.4
204.7
14.1
16.9
2.3
175.1
15.5
17.1
2.3
205.3
15.4
17.2
2.0
204.7
14.1
16.9
2.3
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2012
3rd
2013
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
Year
2012
2013
0.806
0.495
0.116
0.290
0.057
0.037
0.292
0.014
2.107
0.946
0.486
0.118
0.341
0.056
0.041
0.290
0.024
2.302
0.775
0.504
0.121
0.211
0.056
0.042
0.293
0.034
2.036
0.645
0.502
0.123
0.326
0.057
0.039
0.307
0.038
2.036
0.706
0.494
0.116
0.365
0.057
0.039
0.296
0.022
2.105
0.873
0.479
0.119
0.352
0.057
0.047
0.290
0.033
2.250
0.682
0.501
0.129
0.269
0.059
0.048
0.295
0.033
2.016
0.592
0.504
0.125
0.338
0.059
0.040
0.296
0.034
1.987
0.664
0.493
0.119
0.353
0.058
0.041
0.291
0.034
2.052
0.786
0.483
0.123
0.394
0.057
0.052
0.294
0.035
2.223
0.629
0.509
0.132
0.290
0.059
0.052
0.297
0.035
2.003
0.582
0.514
0.127
0.355
0.059
0.041
0.296
0.035
2.008
3.171
1.987
0.477
1.168
0.226
0.158
1.183
0.110
8.481
2.853
1.977
0.488
1.325
0.232
0.173
1.178
0.122
8.358
2.660
2.000
0.500
1.392
0.232
0.185
1.178
0.139
8.286
0.801
0.046
0.064
0.290
0.042
0.002
1.245
0.941
0.040
0.067
0.341
0.040
0.006
1.435
0.771
0.047
0.069
0.211
0.040
0.006
1.145
0.641
0.042
0.069
0.326
0.041
0.003
1.122
0.701
0.046
0.065
0.365
0.042
0.004
1.224
0.867
0.041
0.068
0.352
0.041
0.011
1.380
0.678
0.051
0.071
0.269
0.043
0.013
1.124
0.587
0.049
0.069
0.338
0.043
0.004
1.090
0.658
0.051
0.068
0.353
0.042
0.005
1.178
0.779
0.047
0.071
0.394
0.041
0.016
1.348
0.625
0.056
0.073
0.290
0.043
0.017
1.105
0.576
0.055
0.071
0.355
0.043
0.005
1.106
3.154
0.175
0.269
1.168
0.163
0.018
4.947
2.833
0.187
0.272
1.325
0.168
0.032
4.818
2.640
0.210
0.284
1.392
0.168
0.044
4.737
0.005
0.325
0.043
0.001
0.378
0.005
0.322
0.042
0.001
0.375
0.003
0.331
0.043
0.001
0.383
0.005
0.334
0.044
0.001
0.388
0.005
0.323
0.042
0.001
0.375
0.006
0.311
0.044
0.001
0.366
0.004
0.322
0.049
0.001
0.380
0.005
0.326
0.047
0.001
0.384
0.005
0.314
0.041
0.001
0.367
0.006
0.310
0.044
0.001
0.365
0.004
0.325
0.049
0.001
0.383
0.005
0.331
0.047
0.001
0.389
0.018
1.311
0.172
0.004
1.524
0.020
1.283
0.182
0.004
1.506
0.020
1.280
0.181
0.004
1.503
0.017
0.009
0.005
0.032
0.018
0.008
0.005
0.032
0.018
0.009
0.005
0.033
0.018
0.010
0.005
0.034
0.017
0.008
0.005
0.031
0.018
0.008
0.005
0.033
0.019
0.009
0.005
0.034
0.020
0.009
0.005
0.035
0.019
0.009
0.005
0.034
0.018
0.008
0.005
0.033
0.019
0.009
0.005
0.035
0.020
0.009
0.005
0.035
0.071
0.036
0.020
0.131
0.074
0.035
0.020
0.133
0.077
0.035
0.020
0.137
0.106
0.010
0.035
0.150
0.107
0.010
0.035
0.152
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.109
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154
0.430
0.040
0.140
0.610
0.434
0.040
0.142
0.615
0.433
0.040
0.142
0.615
0.263
0.013
0.277
0.026
0.276
0.035
0.275
0.038
0.263
0.019
0.274
0.032
0.277
0.033
0.284
0.033
0.272
0.033
0.285
0.035
0.284
0.036
0.288
0.035
1.091
0.113
1.099
0.117
1.129
0.139
2.077
2.292
2.020
2.004
2.047
2.234
1.997
1.975
2.033
2.214
1.991
2.000
8.392
8.252
8.237
- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Wood and wood-derived fuels.
(c) Municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
(d) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2012
2013
2011
Year
2012
2013
14,102
13,315
13,601
13,932
10,517
10,590
10,193
10,297
10,497
2,012
2,070
2,132
1,761
1,889
2,043
15.17
10.30
7.78
8.73
25.44
22.24
10.49
123.6
123.7
123.7
123.8
123.9
123.5
123.6
123.9
133.7
134.3
134.9
135.4
135.9
136.5
131.4
133.5
135.7
91.0
91.5
92.0
92.5
92.9
93.3
93.7
89.4
91.3
93.1
96.3
95.1
102.0
86.1
97.7
96.0
102.2
86.5
98.6
97.0
102.5
86.9
99.1
97.6
102.8
87.1
99.7
98.3
103.2
87.2
100.4
99.2
103.7
87.5
101.3
100.3
104.3
88.1
102.2
101.4
104.9
88.7
93.7
91.4
100.4
86.0
97.9
96.4
102.4
86.6
100.9
99.8
104.0
87.9
86.7
102.0
70.9
100.4
80.8
94.3
90.8
88.0
102.7
71.7
105.1
85.6
97.9
93.0
88.3
103.3
72.0
106.6
85.7
99.4
93.6
88.7
103.5
72.4
107.7
86.1
99.9
94.1
88.8
103.5
72.8
107.5
85.9
99.6
94.1
88.9
103.8
73.9
107.8
85.8
99.4
94.2
89.3
104.0
75.7
108.8
85.9
99.6
94.7
90.0
104.2
78.0
110.6
86.7
100.3
95.7
90.7
104.3
80.4
112.2
87.7
100.8
96.6
86.7
98.5
70.9
96.8
82.3
93.0
89.8
88.5
103.3
72.3
106.7
85.8
99.2
93.7
89.7
104.1
77.0
109.8
86.5
100.0
95.3
2.26
2.27
2.29
2.30
2.31
2.32
2.33
2.33
2.34
2.36
2.25
2.30
2.34
2.02
2.02
2.03
2.03
2.02
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.05
2.06
2.08
2.01
2.04
2.06
2.74
3.22
3.07
2.94
3.09
3.23
3.21
3.15
3.13
3.16
3.15
3.07
2.99
3.17
3.13
112.4
113.1
113.8
114.1
114.5
114.8
115.3
115.7
116.1
116.3
116.8
117.3
113.3
115.1
116.6
7,585
8,324
8,251
7,950
7,608
8,442
8,402
8,041
7,750
8,500
8,464
8,101
8,029
8,124
8,205
519
549
554
527
509
529
551
551
535
536
555
554
537
535
545
307
339
344
320
308
328
348
344
324
336
356
352
328
332
342
298.2
308.1
307.8
302.0
299.2
298.6
306.9
323.2
327.5
312.7
317.3
332.3
304.0
307.0
322.4
0.257
0.261
0.266
0.264
0.274
0.302
0.313
0.301
0.316
0.326
0.311
0.298
0.262
0.298
0.313
578
287
530
1,395
575
333
431
1,339
556
393
395
1,343
574
299
382
1,254
583
306
466
1,355
581
369
433
1,383
564
419
432
1,414
578
292
396
1,266
583
305
459
1,347
581
368
424
1,373
2,299
1,296
1,902
5,497
2,293
1,367
1,676
5,336
2,306
1,383
1,711
5,400
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
13,228
13,272
13,332
13,429
13,498
13,567
13,634
13,704
10,183
10,170
10,189
10,232
10,221
10,268
10,323
1,699
1,737
1,790
1,818
1,853
1,878
33.28
24.16
11.34
32.98
23.93
123.5
123.5
123.5
123.5
130.7
131.2
131.5
88.7
89.2
1st
2nd
3rd
13,779
13,872
13,976
10,375
10,416
10,466
1,898
1,928
1,957
25.68
20.00
19.34
123.5
123.6
123.6
132.0
132.7
133.2
89.5
90.0
90.5
92.9
90.6
100.3
86.0
94.2
91.7
100.4
85.0
95.2
92.9
101.3
85.3
89.9
86.2
96.6
71.3
95.3
80.7
91.4
88.7
86.6
100.8
72.3
95.9
80.7
92.8
89.8
2.22
2.25
1.98
4th
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2012
2013
2011
Year
2012
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
740
2,047
1,860
865
2,470
628
1,573
883
2,367
743
2,056
1,869
870
2,480
631
1,583
888
2,382
746
2,064
1,877
874
2,492
634
1,591
893
2,396
750
2,073
1,885
878
2,506
638
1,600
898
2,411
754
2,084
1,894
883
2,521
642
1,607
904
2,424
759
2,096
1,906
888
2,540
646
1,621
910
2,439
764
2,109
1,919
895
2,559
651
1,636
917
2,458
769
2,126
1,933
902
2,583
656
1,655
926
2,482
733
2,024
1,842
855
2,438
620
1,537
869
2,332
745
2,060
1,873
872
2,487
633
1,587
890
2,389
762
2,104
1,913
892
2,551
649
1,630
914
2,451
95.4
93.2
95.1
98.6
91.5
90.8
99.1
95.1
95.9
96.1
94.0
96.2
99.6
92.2
91.8
100.1
96.1
96.7
96.8
94.8
97.3
100.6
93.1
93.0
101.1
97.2
97.6
97.3
95.2
98.0
101.2
93.6
93.8
101.7
97.8
98.3
97.9
95.7
98.7
101.8
94.2
94.7
102.5
98.8
99.1
98.7
96.4
99.8
102.7
94.9
95.7
103.3
99.9
100.0
99.6
97.3
100.9
103.8
95.8
97.1
104.5
101.0
101.0
100.5
98.3
102.2
105.0
96.8
98.5
105.6
102.3
102.1
92.6
90.3
90.8
94.3
88.0
86.9
94.9
91.2
92.7
96.4
94.3
96.7
100.0
92.6
92.4
100.5
96.6
97.1
99.2
96.9
100.4
103.3
95.4
96.5
104.0
100.5
100.6
656
1,756
1,612
754
2,151
566
1,275
748
1,968
660
1,768
1,620
758
2,164
569
1,284
753
1,980
665
1,783
1,631
764
2,182
573
1,296
759
1,997
670
1,797
1,642
769
2,200
577
1,307
766
2,011
674
1,806
1,651
773
2,217
582
1,317
772
2,026
679
1,819
1,663
780
2,235
586
1,330
779
2,044
682
1,827
1,670
784
2,247
589
1,339
783
2,056
686
1,838
1,678
788
2,262
592
1,350
789
2,070
654
1,748
1,606
751
2,135
564
1,260
743
1,953
663
1,776
1,626
761
2,174
571
1,290
756
1,989
681
1,822
1,666
781
2,240
587
1,334
781
2,049
5,676
15,627
18,065
8,198
23,456
7,266
13,524
8,386
17,674
5,685
15,650
18,095
8,221
23,539
7,283
13,583
8,423
17,742
5,695
15,675
18,128
8,244
23,629
7,303
13,645
8,461
17,809
5,707
15,701
18,165
8,270
23,729
7,325
13,713
8,503
17,880
5,720
15,729
18,202
8,294
23,831
7,348
13,782
8,546
17,955
5,732
15,756
18,240
8,320
23,935
7,371
13,851
8,589
18,031
5,745
15,780
18,273
8,343
24,038
7,394
13,918
8,629
18,100
5,758
15,807
18,308
8,368
24,145
7,417
13,986
8,671
18,174
5,668
15,606
18,040
8,175
23,380
7,250
13,466
8,351
17,618
5,707
15,701
18,165
8,270
23,729
7,325
13,713
8,503
17,880
5,758
15,807
18,308
8,368
24,145
7,417
13,986
8,671
18,174
6.8
18.4
20.4
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6
6.9
18.4
20.5
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.5
9.2
19.7
6.9
18.5
20.6
10.0
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.8
6.9
18.6
20.7
10.1
25.6
7.6
15.6
9.3
19.8
6.9
18.7
20.7
10.1
25.7
7.6
15.6
9.4
19.9
6.9
18.7
20.8
10.1
25.8
7.6
15.7
9.4
20.0
7.0
18.8
20.9
10.2
25.9
7.7
15.8
9.5
20.1
7.0
18.9
20.9
10.2
26.0
7.7
15.9
9.5
20.2
6.8
18.2
20.2
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4
6.9
18.5
20.5
10.0
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7
7.0
18.8
20.8
10.2
25.9
7.7
15.8
9.5
20.1
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
2013
2nd
Heating Degree-days
New England ................
3,314
846
Middle Atlantic ..............
3,023
609
E. N. Central .................
3,306
755
W. N. Central ................
3,517
769
South Atlantic ...............
1,501
179
E. S. Central .................
1,866
247
W. S. Central ................
1,273
101
Mountain .......................
2,338
773
Pacific ...........................
1,481
675
U.S. Average ............
2,285
517
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
111
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
216
E. N. Central .................
0
227
W. N. Central ................
1
294
South Atlantic ...............
99
789
E. S. Central .................
9
653
W. S. Central ................
113
1,091
Mountain .......................
11
316
Pacific ...........................
2
68
U.S. Average ............
33
432
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
Year
2013
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2011
2012
2013
105
67
182
200
18
44
9
71
52
77
1,870
1,715
1,943
2,155
900
1,230
839
1,938
1,171
1,441
2,659
2,360
2,468
2,525
1,120
1,321
888
2,099
1,416
1,782
809
677
733
624
222
251
63
608
537
484
179
120
150
178
24
30
8
164
107
97
2,253
2,049
2,296
2,477
1,054
1,372
890
1,932
1,144
1,625
3,166
2,910
3,179
3,288
1,511
1,883
1,258
2,310
1,419
2,215
920
735
768
711
240
285
105
724
556
530
192
127
159
181
23
32
7
171
98
99
2,251
2,044
2,298
2,495
1,039
1,359
878
1,939
1,117
1,617
6,135
5,414
6,186
6,641
2,598
3,387
2,222
5,120
3,379
4,320
5,900
5,206
5,647
5,804
2,420
2,974
1,849
4,803
3,204
3,988
6,529
5,816
6,404
6,675
2,813
3,558
2,248
5,144
3,191
4,462
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
496
670
668
810
1,262
1,134
1,767
971
606
942
1
1
2
13
182
21
201
70
41
70
0
0
17
13
154
52
146
9
0
53
74
151
204
279
617
499
882
417
149
371
357
524
510
657
1,101
1,026
1,445
870
512
784
0
5
8
13
210
64
178
70
41
78
0
0
1
3
113
31
81
15
7
35
70
144
206
271
577
472
794
380
150
349
362
515
519
659
1,104
1,014
1,442
857
538
787
1
5
8
15
223
66
190
78
55
83
608
887
897
1,118
2,332
1,817
3,172
1,368
717
1,477
431
680
739
962
2,082
1,641
2,651
1,366
702
1,286
433
664
734
948
2,018
1,582
2,506
1,330
750
1,255
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.