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May2012

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Highlights

EIAscurrentforecastoftheaverageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilin2012is
$110perbarrel,whichis$2.50perbarrellowerthaninlastmonthsOutlook,butstill
about$8perbarrelhigherthanlastyearsaverageprice.EIAexpectsthepriceofWest
TexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoiltoaverageabout$104perbarrelin2012,about$2
perbarrellowerthantheforecastinlastmonthsOutlook,but$9perbarrelhigherthan
the2011averageprice.EIAexpectscrudeoilpricestoremainrelativelyflatin2013.

Withfallingglobalcrudeoilpricesoverthepastmonth,EIAhasloweredtheaverage
regulargasolineretailpriceforecastforthecurrentAprilthroughSeptembersummer
drivingseasonto$3.79pergallon,16centspergallonbelowthelevelintheprevious
Outlook.EIAexpectsregulargasolineretailpricestoaverage$3.71pergallonin2012
and$3.67pergallonin2013,comparedwith$3.53pergallonin2011.TheSeptember
2012NewYorkHarborReformulatedBlendstockforOxygenateBlending(RBOB)futures
contractaveraged$2.99pergallonforthefivetradingdaysendingMay3.Basedonthe
marketvalueoffuturesandoptionscontracts,thereisa22percentprobabilitythatthe
RBOBcontractpriceatexpirationwillexceed$3.30pergallon,consistentwithan
averageregulargradegasolineretailpriceexceeding$4.00pergalloninSeptember.

EIAexpectsU.S.totalcrudeoilproductiontoaverage6.2millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)
in2012,anincreaseof0.5millionbbl/dfromlastyear,andthehighestlevelof
productionsince1998.Forecastlower48onshorecrudeoilproductionin2012
averagesover4.3millionbbl/d,reachingitshighestlevelsince1993.ProjectedU.S
domesticcrudeoilproductionincreasesto6.4millionbbl/din2013,drivenprimarilyby
growthinlower48onshoreproduction.

Verymildweatheroverthepastwintercontributedtonaturalgasworkinginventories
thatcontinuetosetnewrecordseasonalhighs,withApril2012endingatanestimated
2.61trillioncubicfeet(Tcf),about46percentmorethanthesametimelastyear.EIAs
average2012HenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceforecastis$2.45permillionBritish
thermalunits(MMBtu),adeclineof$1.55perMMBtufromthe2011averagespot
price.EIAexpectsthatHenryHubspotpriceswillaverage$3.17perMMBtuin2013.

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

EIAexpectselectricitygenerationfromcoaltodeclinebyabout15percentin2012as
generationfromnaturalgasincreasesbyabout24percent.EIAforecaststhatelectricity
generationfromcoalwillincreasebyabout4percentin2013,asprojectedcoalprices
fallslightlywhilenaturalgaspricesincrease,allowingcoaltoregainsomeofitspower
generationshare.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.EIAexpectsthatglobaloilmarketswillcontinueto
remaintightin2012,althoughmarketshaveeasedsomewhatsincemidMarch.Yearoveryear
supplygrowthin2012shouldsignificantlyexceedtheprojected1.0millionbbl/drisein
consumption,andweexpectglobalcommercialstockstobuildfollowingthesignificantdraws
during2011.Theoilproductiongainscontributedtoacounterseasonalstockbuildduringthe
1stquarterof2012andamoderatereductioninbackwardationincrudeoilprices.However,EIA
doesnotexpecttheselargecounterseasonalstockbuildstocontinuethroughouttheyear,and
bothglobaloilinventoryandspareproductioncapacitylevelsareprojectedtobetightenough
tosupporthigheraveragecrudeoilpricesin2012thaninthepreviousyear.Theprojectedoil
marketbalancereflectstheimpactsfromprevioussanctionsagainstIran,butthepotential
impactsofthemorerecentsanctionssettotakeeffectthisyeararenotaccountedforinthe
currentOutlook.

CrudeoilpriceshavedeclinedafterincreasingthroughmidMarch,asgloballiquidssupply
outpacedconsumptionby0.6millionbbl/dinfirstquarter2012,whichledtoglobalinventory
builds.TheeasinginthebackwardationofwaterbornelightcrudepricesnotedinEIAsApril
27threport,TheAvailabilityandPriceofPetroleumandPetroleumProductsProducedin
CountriesOtherThanIran,hasalsocontinuedinrecentdays.Whilepricetrendsandreduced
backwardationsignalsomemarketeasing,thecontinuingpremiumoncontractsfornearterm
deliveryandapricelevelthatremainselevatedrelativetothefourthquarterof2011isstill
indicativeoftightnessinworldoilmarkets.

Thereareseveraluncertaintiesthatcouldpushoilpriceshigherorlowerthanprojected.A
numberofcountriesoutsideoftheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)
arecurrentlyundergoingsupplydisruptions,asdiscussedinEIAsApril27threportThe
AvailabilityandPriceofPetroleumandPetroleumProductsProducedinCountriesOtherThan
IranandtheApril18editionofThisWeekinPetroleum.Oilpricescouldbehigherthan
projectedinthisOutlookifrecoveriesfromsupplydisruptionsareslowerthanforecast,
additionaldisruptionsoccur,orsupplygrowthislowerthanexpected.Additionally,although
theeffectsoftheimpendingEuropeanUnionembargoandothersanctionstargetingexportsof
Iraniancrudeoilandtheirassociatedpaymentsarestilluncertain,heightenedmarketanxiety
surroundingapotentiallysignificantsupplydisruptioncouldbolsteroilprices.Onthedemand
side,economicgrowthbelowcurrentexpectationscouldresultinreducedoildemandandlower
prices.

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.Worldliquidfuelsconsumptiongrewbyan
estimated0.8millionbbl/din2011.EIAexpectsconsumptiongrowthof1.0millionbbl/din
2012and1.2millionbbl/din2013,withChina,theMiddleEast,CentralandSouthAmerica,and
othercountriesoutsideoftheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)
accountingforessentiallyallconsumptiongrowth(WorldLiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).
OECDliquidfuelsconsumptionisprojectedtodeclineby0.4millionbbl/din2012,withEurope
and,toalesserextent,theUnitedStatesaccountingforalmostallofthedecline.In2013,
forecastOECDliquidfuelsconsumptionisexpectedtoremainessentiallyflat.

NonOPECSupply.EIAexpectsnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproductiontoriseby0.7
millionbbl/din2012andbyafurther1.1millionbbl/din2013.ThelargestareaofnonOPEC
growthwillbeNorthAmerica,whereproductionincreasesby680thousandbbl/dand260
thousandbbl/din2012and2013,respectively,resultingfromcontinuedproductiongrowth
fromU.S.onshoreshaleandothertightoilformationsandCanadianoilsands.InBrazil,output
isprojectedtoriseannuallybyanaverageof130thousandbbl/doverthenexttwoyears,with
increasedoutputfromitsoffshore,presaltoilfields.EIAexpectsthatKazakhstan,whichwill
commencecommercialproductionintheKashaganfieldnextyear,willincreaseitstotal
productionby160thousandbbl/din2013.ProductionalsorisesinChinaandColombiaoverthe
nexttwoyears,whileproductiondeclinesinMexicoandtheNorthSea.

SeveralnotabledisruptionstononOPECproductioncommencedorintensifiedsincethe
beginningofthisyear,asdiscussedinboththeApril27threportTheAvailabilityandPriceof
PetroleumandPetroleumProductsProducedinCountriesOtherThanIranandintheApril18
editionofThisWeekinPetroleum.UnplannedoutagestononOPECproductiontotaledover1.2
millionbbl/dinMarchandareestimatedtoremainatanelevatedlevel.

OPECSupply.EIAexpectsthatOPECmemberswillcontinuetoproduceslightlyover30million
bbl/dofcrudeoiloverthenexttwoyearstoaccommodatetheprojectedincreaseinworldoil
demandandtocounterbalancesupplydisruptions.ProjectedOPECcrudeoilproduction
increasesbyabout1.0millionbbl/din2012andthenfallsby0.3millionbbl/din2013asnon
OPECsupplygrowthincreasesandstocksremainflat.OPECnoncrudepetroleumliquids
(condensates,naturalgasliquids,coaltoliquids,andgastoliquids),whicharenotcoveredby
OPECsproductionquotas,areforecasttoincreaseby0.2millionbbl/din2012,andby0.1
millionbbl/din2013.

EIAexpectsIranscrudeproductiontofallbyabout500thousandbbl/dbytheendof2012and
byanadditional200thousandbbl/din2013,fromitspreviousoutputlevelof3.55millionbbl/d
attheendof2011.Iransoutputdeclinebegantoaccelerateduringthelastquarterof2011
andhascontinued.EIAbelievesthatthisaccelerationreflectsalackofinvestment,whichis
neededtooffsetnaturalproductiondeclines.Anumberofforeigncompaniesthatwere
investinginIransupstreamhavehaltedtheiractivitiesasaresultofprevioussanctionsagainst
Iranthathavemadeitdifficulttodobusinesswiththecountry.EIAexpectsthattheforecast
declineinIransoutputwillbeoffsetbyincreasedproductioninotherOPECmembercountries.

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012


EIAsforecastofmarketbalancesdoesnotfactorinanypotentialeffectsofthemorerecent
sanctionstargetingIranscentralbankandtheimpendingEuropeanUnionembargoonIrans
crudeoilproduction,ortheirpossibileimpactontheproduction,sparecapacity,orinventories
ofIranandotherOPECmembercountries.AsnotedinEIAsApril27threport,thereare
indicationsthattheU.S.andEUsanctionsarealreadyaffectingsalesofIraniancrudeoil.
CurrentandcontinuingdifficultiesinplacingexportvolumesfromIrancouldresultinabuildup
ofIranianoilinstorage,whetheronshoreoroffshore.AnincreaseinIraniancrudeoilstorage
woulddriveanincreaseinglobaloilinventories.However,insofarasinventoriesheldbyIran
arebuildingduetotheeffectofsanctionsonitsabilitytoselloil,thosevolumeswouldnotbe
availabletoconsumersinthesamewayastraditionalinventories.

Moreover,ifIransdifficultiesinfindingmarketsforitsoilpersistorintensify,oroutstrip
availablestoragecapacity,Iranmayhavetoshutinproduction.EIAexpectsthatanyvolumes
thatareshutincouldbereplacedbyincreasedproductionfromsparecapacityheldbyother
OPECmembercountries.Insuchascenario,theshutinproductioncapacityinIranmay
technicallybecountedasnewsparecapacity,butlikeinventoriesthataccumulateforsimilar
reasonswouldnotbereadilyavailabletoalleviatemarkettightnessinthesamemannerthat
regularsparecapacitynotforcedbysanctionstypicallywouldbe.

OPECmembersserveastheswingproducersintheworldmarketbecauseonlyOPECproducers
possesssurplusorspareoilproductioncapacity.EIAprojectsthatOPECsurplusproduction
capacitywillaverage2.8millionbbl/din2012andrisetoanaverage3.5millionbbl/din2013
(OPECSurplusCrudeOilProductionCapacityChart).However,asdiscussedabove,marketsmay
becloselywatchingthecompositionofOPECsparecapacity,aswellasitsaggregatelevel,asthe
situationwithrespecttoIranevolves.Underplausiblecircumstances,themarketmaydiscount
aportionofOPECmembersaggregatesparecapacity.

OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAestimatesthatOECDcommercialoilinventoriesended2011
at2.59billionbarrels,equivalentto56.1daysofforwardcover(DaysofSupplyofOECD
CommercialStocksChart).ProjectedOECDoilinventoriesincreaseto2.64billionbarrelsand
57.3daysofforwardcoverbytheendof2012.AlthoughtheforecastDecember2012inventory
isslightlylowerthanthe2.66billionbarrellevelattheendofDecember2010,thedaysof
forwardcoverarestillamongthehighestendofyearlevelssince1991becauseofthedeclinein
OECDconsumption.

CrudeOilPrices.EIAhasloweredtheforecast2012averageU.S.refineracquisitioncostof
crudeoilby$2.50perbarrelfromlastmonthsOutlookto$110perbarrel,stillabout$8per
barrelhigherthanlastyearsaverageprice.EIAexpectsthepriceofWTIcrudeoiltoaverage
about$104perbarrelin2012,about$2perbarrellowerthanlastmonthsOutlook,but$9per
barrelhigherthanthe2011averageprice.EIAexpectscrudeoilpricestoremainrelativelyflat
in2013,withWTIandtheU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilaveragingabout$104per
barreland$108perbarrel,respectively(WestTexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).The

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

projectedWTIpricediscounttotheaverageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilnarrows
overtheforecastfromabout$6perbarrelinthesecondquarterof2012to$4perbarrelbythe
fourthquarterof2013,astransportationbottlenecksdiminish.

Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).WTIfutures
forJuly2012deliveryduringthe5dayperiodendingMay3,2012averaged$105perbarrel.
Impliedvolatilityaveraged23percent,establishingthelowerandupperlimitsofthe95percent
confidenceintervalforthemarket'sexpectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinJuly2012at
$90perbarreland$123perbarrel,respectively.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforJuly2011
deliveryaveraged$110perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged29percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$91perbarrel
and$133perbarrel.

U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels

U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionfell340thousandbbl/d(1.8percent)last
year.Motorgasolineconsumptionaccountedforthebulkofthatdecline,shrinkingby260
thousandbbl/d(2.9percent).Inthefirstquarterof2012,totalconsumptioncontinuedto
displayweakness,fallingby670thousandbbl/d(3.5percent)fromthesameperiodlastyear
(U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).Higherretailgasolinepricescontributedtothe150
thousandbbl/d(1.7percent)declineinmotorgasolineconsumptionduringthefirstquarter
2012fromtheyearbefore.Distillatefuelconsumptionalsoshrankby150thousandbbl/d(3.7
percent),largelyduetounusuallywarmweather.Fortherestof2012,EIAexpectsmore
moderateyearoveryeardeclinesinmotorgasolineconsumption,averagingabout30thousand
bbl/d.Incontrast,projecteddistillatefueloilconsumptionrecoversfromtheverywarmwinter
withyearoveryeargrowthaveragingabout80thousandbbl/d,boostedbycontinuedgrowthin
manufacturingproduction.

DespiteassumedgrowthinU.S.realdisposableincomeof1.9percentnextyear,forecastmotor
gasolineconsumptioncontinuestodeclineby30thousandbbl/d(0.3percent)in2013.This
Outlookreflectshighgasolineprices,slowinggrowthinthedrivingagepopulation,andthe
improvingaveragefueleconomyofnewvehicles.Distillatefuelconsumption,ontheother
hand,increasesby90thousandbbl/d(2.4percent),buoyedbyanassumednearnormalwinter
andcontinuinggrowthinmanufacturingoutput.

U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproductionincreasedbyanestimated
190thousandbbl/d(3.4percent)to5.66millionbbl/din2011.Anincreaseof450thousand
bbl/dinlower48onshoreproductionin2011waspartlyoffsetbya30thousandbbl/d
productiondeclineinAlaskaanda230thousandbbl/dproductiondeclineintheFederalGulfof
Mexico(GOM).

ForecastU.S.totalcrudeoilproductionincreasesto6.17millionbbl/din2012,anupward
revisionof150thousandbbl/dfromlastmonthsOutlook,andthehighestlevelofproduction

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

since1998.Growthinlower48onshorecrudeoilproductionof560thousandbbl/din2012
overshadowsdeclinesaveragingabout30thousandbbl/dinAlaskanoutputand20thousand
bbl/dinGOMproduction(U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsProductionChart).Therisein
productionisdrivenbyincreasedoildirecteddrillingactivity,particularlyinonshoretightoil
formations.ThenumberofonshoreoildirecteddrillingrigsreportedbyBakerHughes
increasedfrom777atthebeginningof2011to1,355onMay4,2012.

TheshareoftotalU.S.consumptionmetbytotalliquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoil
andproducts)hasbeenfallingsince2005,andaveraged45percentin2011,downfrom49
percentin2010.EIAexpectsthatthetotalnetimportshareofconsumptionwillcontinueto
declineto43percentin2012andto42percentin2013.

U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.Regulargradegasolineretailpricesaveraged$3.53pergallonin
2011,$0.74pergallon(27percent)higherthanthe2010average.Thepriceincreasein2011
largelyreflectedhighercrudeoilcosts($0.60pergallon)andhigherrefinerygasolinemargins
($0.10pergallon).EIAexpectstheregulargradegasolineretailpricetoincreasetoanaverage
of$3.71pergallonin2012,primarilyduetohighercrudeoilcosts(U.S.GasolineandCrudeOil
PricesChart).Regulargradegasolinepricespeakedat$3.90pergalloninAprilandare
projectedtoaverage$3.79pergallonduringthesummerseason(AprilthroughSeptember)
comparedwithlastsummersaverageof$3.71pergallon.Forecastregulargradegasoline
pricesdeclinetoanaverageof$3.67pergallonin2013.

EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$3.84pergallonin2011,
willaverage$4.06pergallonin2012,down9centspergallonfromlastmonthsOutlook.In
2013,dieselfuelretailpricesareprojectedtodeclineto$4.03pergallon,8centspergallon
lowerthanthepreviousOutlook(U.S.DieselFuelandCrudeOilPricesChart).

Becausetaxesandretaildistributioncostsaregenerallystable,movementsingasolineand
dieselpricesaredrivenprimarilybychangesinbothcrudeoilpricesandwholesalemargins.The
retailpriceprojectionsreflecthigherpricesfortheaveragerefineracquisitioncostofcrudeoil,
whichaverages$110perbarrel($2.61pergallon)in2012,comparedwiththe$102perbarrel
($2.43pergallon)averagefor2011.EIAexpectswholesalegasolinemargins(thedifference
betweenthewholesalepriceofgasolineandtherefineracquisitioncostofcrudeoil)will
average42centspergallonand41centspergallonin2012and2013,respectively,whichare
slightlyhigherthantheprevious5yearaverageof40centspergallon.Incontrast,wholesale
dieselmarginsarerobustduringtheforecastintervalduetostrongworldwidedemandforthe
fuel.In2012,thosemarginsaverage60centspergallon,similartothe2011averageandhigher
thantheprevious5yearaverageof52centspergallon.Thedieselwholesalemarginfor2013
remainswide,averaging59centspergallon.

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

NaturalGas

U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.EIAexpectsthatnaturalgasconsumptionwillaverage70.2
billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2012,anincreaseof3.4Bcf/d(5.1percent)from2011andan
upwardrevisionof0.6Bcf/dfromlastmonthsOutlook.EIAexpectsthatlargegainsinelectric
powerusewilloffsetdeclinesinresidentialandcommercialuse.Becauseofthemuchwarmer
thannormalwinterthisyear,EIAexpectsbothresidentialandcommercialconsumptiontofall
byover6percentin2012,reflectingadownwardrevisioninprojectedconsumptionfromlast
monthsOutlook.Thedownwardrevisionsinresidentialandcommercialconsumptionreflect
thedeclineintotalprojected2012heatingdegreedaysasreportedbytheNationalOceanicand
AtmosphericAdministration.

Projectedconsumptionofnaturalgasintheelectricpowersectorgrowsbyalmost21percentin
2012,primarilydrivenbytheincreasingrelativecostadvantagesofnaturalgasovercoalfor
powergenerationinsomeregions.Consumptionintheelectricpowersectorpeaksinthethird
quarterof2012,at31.2Bcf/d,whenelectricitydemandforairconditioningishighest.This
compareswith27.7Bcf/dduringthethirdquarterof2011.

Growthintotalnaturalgasconsumptionslowsin2013,withforecastconsumptionaveraging
71.2Bcf/d(U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionChart).However,unlike2012,growthin2013is
drivenbyconsumptionfromtheresidential,commercial,andindustrialsectors.Aforecastof
closertonormalwintertemperaturesdrivesincreasesinresidentialandcommercial
consumptionin2013of7.1percentand4.2percent,respectively.Theincreaseinconsumption
inthesesectors,aswellasa1.4percentincreaseinindustrialconsumption,morethanoffsetsa
2.0percentdeclineinpowersectornaturalgasburn.

U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.Totalmarketedproductionofnaturalgasgrewbyan
estimated4.8Bcf/d(7.9percent)in2011.Thisstronggrowthwasdriveninlargepartby
increasesinshalegasproduction.WhileEIAexpectsyearoveryearproductiongrowthto
continuein2012,theprojectedincreasesoccurataslowerratethanin2011aslowprices
reducenewdrillingplans.AccordingtoBakerHughes,thenaturalgasrigcountwas613asof
April27,2012,downfroma2011highof936inmidOctober,makingitthelowestrigcount
since2002.EIAsproductionsurveyindicatesnaturalgasmarketedproductionfellby420Bcf/d
fromJanuary2012toFebruary2012.EIAexpectsgrowthinU.S.productionduring2012to
average4.4percent.Decliningproductionfromlessprofitabledrynaturalgasplayssuchas
theHaynesvilleShaleareoffsetbygrowthinproductionfromliquidsrichnaturalgasproduction
areassuchastheEagleFordandwetareasoftheMarcellusShale,andassociatedgasfromthe
growthindomesticcrudeoilproduction.

EIAexpectspipelinegrossimportswillfallby0.3Bcf/d(3.3percent)in2012asdomesticsupply
displacesCanadiansources.ThewarmwinterintheUnitedStatesalsoaddstotheyearover
yeardeclineinimports,particularlytotheNortheast,whereimportednaturalgascanserveas
additionalsupplyintimesofverycoldweather.EIAexpectspipelinegrossimportswillincrease

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

by2.3percentin2013,partiallyduetonearnormalwinterweatherdrivinghigherresidential
andcommercialdemand.Additionally,EIAexpectsincreasedpipelineimportstohelpmeet
continuedhighdemandfornaturalgasforelectricpowergeneration.Pipelinegrossexports
grewby1.0Bcf/din2011,drivenbyincreasedexportstoMexico,andareexpectedtocontinue
togrowataslowerratein2012and2013.

Liquefiednaturalgas(LNG)importsareexpectedtofallby0.3Bcf/d(32percent)in2012.EIA
expectsthatanaverageofabout0.7Bcf/dwillarriveintheUnitedStates(mainlyattheEverett
LNGterminalinNewEnglandandtheElbaIslandterminalinGeorgia)inboth2012and2013,
eithertofulfilllongtermcontractobligationsortotakeadvantageoftemporarilyhighlocal
pricesduetocoldsnapsanddisruptions.

U.S.NaturalGasInventories.Workingnaturalgasinventoriescontinuetosetnewseasonal
recordhighsastheverymildwintercontributedtomuchlowerthannormalinventorydraws.
AsofApril27,2012,accordingtoEIAsWeeklyNaturalGasStorageReport,workinginventories
totaled2,576Bcf,840Bcfgreaterthanlastyearsleveland857Bcfabovethe5year(2007
2011)average.EIAexpectsthatinventorylevelsattheendofOctober2012willsetanew
recordhighat4,096Bcf(U.S.WorkingNaturalGasinStorageChart),althoughtherecordwill
largelybeduetohighlevelsalreadypresentatthestartoftheinjectionseason.Theprojected
increaseof1,623Bcfinworkinggasinventoryduringthe2012injectionseason(fromtheendof
MarchtotheendofOctober)isthesmallestbuildsince2002.Limitsonstoragecapacity,as
wellashighdemandfromtheelectricpowersectorthissummer,willlimittheoveralllevelof
injections.In2013,workinginventorylevelsrecedefromrecordhighs,althoughtheywillstill
remainrobustcomparedwithrecenthistory.

U.S.NaturalGasPrices.Naturalgasspotpricesaveraged$1.95perMMBtuattheHenryHubin
April2012,down$0.23perMMBtufromtheMarch2012averageandthelowestaverage
monthlypricesinceMarch1999,whichalsowasthelasttimetheHenryHubpriceaveragedless
than$2perMMBtu.Abundantsuppliesandlowerwinterheatingdemandthisyearhave
contributedtotherecentlowprices.EIAexpectstheHenryHubnaturalgaspricewillaverage
$2.45perMMBtuin2012,asmalldownwardrevisionfrom$2.51perMMBtuexpectedinlast
monthsOutlook.EIAreviseditsforecastfor2013downto$3.17perMMBtu,from$3.40per
MMBtuinlastmonthsOutlook(U.S.NaturalGasPricesChart).

NaturalgasfuturespricesforJuly2012delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingMay3,2012)
averaged$2.39perMMBtu,andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitybasedonoptionsandfutures
priceswas51percent(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).Currentoptionsandfutures
pricesimplythatmarketparticipantsplacethelowerandupperboundsforthe95percent
confidenceintervalforJuly2012contractsat$1.63perMMBtuand$3.50perMMBtu,
respectively.Atthistimelastyear,theJuly2011naturalgasfuturescontractaveraged$4.65
perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged34percent.Thecorrespondinglowerandupper
limitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.61perMMBtuand$5.98perMMBtu.

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

Coal

U.S.CoalConsumption.EIAforecaststhatelectricpowersectorcoalconsumptionwillbeabout
800millionshorttons(MMst)inboth2012and2013.Pricesfornaturalgasdeliveredtothe
electricpowerindustryfellby7.5percentin2011,whichcontributedtoasignificantincreasein
theshareofnaturalgasfiredgeneration.EIAexpectsthistrendtocontinuein2012,with
electricpowersectorcoalconsumptionfallingby14percent(U.S.CoalConsumptionChart).EIA
expectsthatelectricpowersectorcoalconsumptionwillincreaseby1.2percentin2013,as
projectedpowerindustrycoalpricesfall(4percent)andnaturalgaspricesincrease.

U.S.CoalSupply.EIAforecaststhatcoalproductionwilldeclineby10.2percentin2012as
domesticconsumptionandexportsfall(U.S.CoalProductionChart).Productionforthefirst
threemonthsof2012was22MMstbelowlastyearsvalueforthesameperiod.Annual
productiondeclinesgreaterthan25MMstareexpectedineachofthethreecoalproducing
regions(Appalachia,InteriorandWestern).Despitedeclinesinproduction,EIAprojectsthat
secondaryinventorieswillincreasein2012,withelectricpowersectorstocksexceeding200
MMst,andinventorieswillremainatelevatedlevelsin2013(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoal
StocksChart).

U.S.CoalTrade.EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainstrongbutfallbelowthe107MMst
exportedin2011.ForecastU.S.coalexportsare100MMstin2012and97MMstin2013.U.S.
coalexportsaveraged56MMstinthedecadepreceding2011.

U.S.CoalPrices.Deliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowerindustryhadincreasedsteadilyover
thelast10yearsandthistrendcontinuedin2011,withanaveragedeliveredcoalpriceof$2.40
perMMBtu(a5.8percentincreasefrom2010).However,EIAexpectsthedeclineindemandfor
coaltogenerateelectricitywillputdownwardpressureoncoalpricesandcontributetothe
shutinofhighercostproduction.Severalcompanieshaverecentlyannouncedthecurtailment
ofoperations,particularlyinAppalachia,whereproductioncostsatsomeolderminesarehigh.
EIAforecaststheaveragedeliveredcoalpricein2012willbe2.8percentlowerthanthe2011
averageprice.EIApredictsthe2013averagedeliveredcoalpricetobe$2.24perMMBtu,or3.8
percentlowerthanthepreviousyearsprice.

Electricity

U.S.ElectricityConsumption.Heatingdegreedaysnationwideduringthefirstquarterof2012
wereatthelowestlevelsincerecordkeepingbeganin1895.Wintertemperatureswere
particularlymildintheSouth,whereamajorityofhomesuseelectricheatpumps.Themild
weathercontributedtoan11percentdeclineinU.S.residentialelectricitysalescomparedwith
thesameperiodlastyear.Forthesummermonths,EIAexpectsU.S.coolingdegreedaysto
average16percentlowerthanlastsummer.Overall,residentialelectricitysalesfallabout4

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

percentduring2012.EIAexpectstotalconsumptionofelectricitytodeclineby0.8percent
during2012andthengrowby1.9percentin2013.

U.S.ElectricityGeneration.Naturalgasfiredgenerationcontinuestoexpanditsshareoftotal
generationattheexpenseofcoalfiredgeneration.Duringthefirstquarterof2012,naturalgas
accountedfor28.7percentoftotalgenerationcomparedwith20.7percentduringthesame
quarterlastyear.Incontrast,coalsshareoftotalgenerationdeclinedfrom44.6percentto36.0
percentoverthesameperiod.Muchoftherecentincreaseinnaturalgasgenerationhas
stemmedfromincreasedutilizationofcombinedcyclecapacity,whichtypicallydoesnotexhibit
asmuchseasonalfluctuationasothertypesofnaturalgasplantsusedprimarilyforpeaking
generation.Thistrendincapacityutilization,alongwithsummerweatherthatisprojectedtobe
milderthanlastyear,shoulddampenyearoveryeargrowthinnaturalgasgenerationduring
thethirdquarter(U.S.ElectricityGenerationChart).

U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.EIAforecastsaverageU.S.residentialelectricitypricestoriseby
0.6percentin2012,andthenfallby2.1percentin2013(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPrices
Chart).Therisingcostsoftransmittinganddistributingelectricitytoretailcustomersoffset
someofthedecliningfuelcosts.

RenewablesandCarbonDioxideEmissions

U.S.Renewables.Aftergrowingby14percentin2011,totalrenewableenergysupplyis
projectedtodeclineby1.5percentin2012(U.S.RenewableEnergySupplyChart).Thisdecrease
istheresultofhydropowerresourcelevelsbeginningareturntothelongtermaverage,with
supplyfallingby0.3quadrillionBtu(10percent).Thedeclineinhydropowerfromthe2011level
morethanoffsetsgrowthinotherrenewableenergysupplies.Renewablessupplydecreases
furtherin2013ashydropowercontinuestodecline(6.7percent)andnonhydropower
renewablesgrowthof2.2percentisnotenoughtooffsetthedecline.

Undercurrentlaw,federalproductiontaxcreditsforwindpoweredgenerationwillnotbe
availableforturbinesthatbeginoperatingaftertheendof2012.Windpoweredgeneration,
whichgrewby26percentin2011,isforecasttogrowanadditional13percentin2012and5
percentin2013.SincethelastOutlook,theamountofnewwindcapacityreportedtoEIAas
possiblycomingonlinein2013hasfallenby26percent.

Intermsofliquidrenewablefuels,EIAexpectsfuelethanolproductiontoremainsteadyfrom
2011through2013averagingabout900thousandbbl/dforall3years.Thisforecastassumes
thatE15(gasolineblendedwith15percentethanolbyvolume)doesnotyetreachthemarket.
Consequently,U.S.ethanolproductionisprojectedtoexceedthevolumethatcaneasilybeused
intheU.S.liquidfuelspool,sotheNationwillcontinuetobeanetexporterofethanoloverthe
nexttwoyears.EIAestimatesthatbiodieselproductionin2011averagedabout63thousand
bbl/d(971milliongallonsoftotalannualproduction).Forecastbiodieselproductionaverages
63thousandbbl/din2012,and71thousandbbl/din2013.

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

10


U.S.EnergyRelatedCarbonDioxideEmissions.Afterdecliningby1.9percentin2011,fossil
fuelemissionsareprojectedtofurtherdeclineby2.9percentin2012,butincreaseby1.2
percentin2013.Petroleumemissionsdeclineslightlyin2012(0.3percent)andthenriseby0.6
percentin2013,whilenaturalgasemissionsriseby5.5percentand1.2percentin2012and
2013,respectively.Coalemissionsdeclinein2012by11.9percent,butriseby2.1percentin
2013(U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration|ShortTermEnergyOutlookMay2012

11

U.S. Energy Information Administration


Independent Statistics & Analysis

Short--Term Energy Outlook


Short

Chart Gallery for May 2012

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price


dollars per barrel
260
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Jan 2013

Jul 2013

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending May 3, 2012
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon
4.50

Forecast

Price difference
Retail regular gasoline
Crude oil

4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

Jan 2013

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon
5.00
Forecast

Price difference
Retail diesel fuel
Crude oil

4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price


dollars per million Btu
10
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

0
Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Jan 2013

Jul 2013

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending May 3, 2012
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Natural Gas Prices


dollars per thousand cubic feet
25
Forecast

Residential price
Henry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price

20

15

10

0
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

World Liquid Fuels Consumption


million barrels per day
95

million barrels per day


9.0
Forecast
8.0

Total consumption

90

7.0

85

6.0
5.0

80

4.0

Annual growth
75

3.0
2.0

70

1.0
65

0.0
-1.0

60

-2.0
55

-3.0
2005

2006

2007

2008

China

2009

2010

United States

2011

2012

2013

Other Countries

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.0

Forecast

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
2011
OECD*

2012
Non-OECD Asia

2013

Former Soviet Union

Other

* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.6

Forecast

1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
2011

2012
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

2013
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.4
1.2

2013

1.0

2012

0.8

2011

0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Norway

United Kingdom

Sudan

Mexico

Azerbaijan

Syria

Other North Sea

Egypt

Australia

Oman

Gabon

India

Malaysia

Vietnam

Brazil

Kazakhstan

China

Russia

Canada

Colombia

United States

-0.6

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production


(change from previous year)
millions of barrels per day
5

dollars per barrel

World oil consumption (left axis)


Non-OPEC production (left axis)
WTI crude oil price (right axis)

Forecast

100
80
60

40

20
1
0
-1
-20
-2

-40

-3

-60

-4

-80

-5
2009-Q1

-100
2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

2013-Q1

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


million barrels per day
7

Forecast

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Note: Shaded area represents 2001-2011 average (2.6 million barrels per day)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

2011

2013

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks


days of supply
70
Forecast
65
60
55
50
45
400
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production


(million barrels per day)
Change from prior year

Total production
(line chart)
9.75

(column chart)
0.60

9.50

0.55

9.25

0.50

9.00

0.45

8.75

0.40

8.50

0.35

8.25

0.30

8.00

0.25

7.75

0.20

7.50

0.15

7.25

0.10

7.00

0.05

6.75

0.00

6.50

-0.05

6.25

-0.10
2010

2011

2012

2013

Crude oil (right axis)

Liquefied petroleum gas and pentanes plus (right axis)

Fuel ethanol (right axis)

Biodiesel (right axis)

Total production (left axis)

Production forecast (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks


million barrels
400

Forecast

380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
2000
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption


(million barrels per day)

Total consumption
(line chart)
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
2010

2011

Motor gasoline (right axis)


Distillate fuel (right axis)
Total consumption (left axis)

2012

Change from prior year


(column chart)
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
2013

Jet fuel (right axis)


Other fuels (right axis)
Consumption forecast (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories


million barrels
260

Forecast

Total motor gasoline inventory


240
220
200
180

Total distillate fuel inventory

160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

Total consumption
(line chart)
100

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption


(billion cubic feet per day)

Change from prior year


(column chart)
5.0

90

4.5

80

4.0

70

3.5

60

3.0

50

2.5

40

2.0

30

1.5

20

1.0

10

0.5

0.0

-10

-0.5

-20

-1.0

-30

-1.5
2010

2011
Electric power (right axis)
Industrial (right axis)
Total consumption (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

2012

2013

Residential and commercial (right axis)


Other (right axis)
Consumption forecast (left axis)

U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports


(billion cubic feet per day)
Change from prior year

Total marketed production


(line chart)
70

(column chart)
16.0

68

14.0

66

12.0

64

10.0

62

8.0

60

6.0

58

4.0

56

2.0

54

0.0

52

-2.0

50

-4.0
2010

2011

2012

Net imports (right axis)


U.S. production excluding Gulf of Mexico (right axis)
Marketed production forecast (left axis)

2013

Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis)


Total marketed production (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage


billion cubic feet

Forecast

Storage level

4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

Deviation from 2007 - 2011 average


-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

180%
170%
160%
150%
140%
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%

Jan 2013

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

Total consumption
(line chart)

U.S. Coal Consumption


(million short tons)

110

Change from prior year


(column chart)
140

100

120

90

100

80

80

70

60

60

40

50

20

40

30

-20

20

-40

10

-60

-80

-10

-100

-20

-120
-140

-30
2010

2011

Electric power (right axis)


Retail and general industry (right axis)
Consumption forecast (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

2012

2013

Coke plants (right axis)


Total consumption (left axis)

U.S. Coal Production


(million short tons)

Total production
(line chart)
100

Change from prior year


(column chart)
80

95

70

90

60

85

50

80

40

75

30

70

20

65

10

60

55

-10

50

-20

45

-30

40

-40

35

-50
-60

30
2010

2011

2012

Western region (right axis)


Interior region (right axis)
Production forecast (left axis)

2013
Appalachian region (right axis)
Total production (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks


million short tons
Forecast

220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan
2004

Jan
2005

Jan
2006

Jan
2007

Jan
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2010

Jan
2011

Jan
2012

Jan
2013

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

Total consumption
(line chart)

U.S. Electricity Consumption


(million kilowatthours per day)

Change from prior year


(column chart)

13,000

800

12,000

700

11,000

600

10,000

500

9,000

400

8,000

300

7,000

200

6,000

100

5,000

4,000

-100

3,000

-200
2010

2011

2012

2013

Residential (right axis)

Commercial and transportation (right axis)

Industrial (right axis)

Direct use (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis)

Consumption forecast (left axis)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Residential Electricity Price


cents per kilowatthour

change from prior year

14
13

Forecast

Monthly average electricity price

36%

12
11

30%

10
9

24%

8
7

18%

Annual growth

6
10.3%

12%

4
4.2%

5.7%

5.4%
3.2%

2.6%

2.4%

6%
2.2%

2.2%

0.6%

0.3%

0%

1
0

-1.6%

-2.1%
-6%

-1
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors


thousand megawatthours per day

Forecast

12,000
10,000
8,000

49.8%

49.6%

49.0%

48.5%

48.2%

44.4%

44.8%

42.2%

36.2%

36.9%
Coal
Natural gas
Petroleum
Nuclear

6,000
4,000

17.9%

18.8%

20.1%

21.6%

21.4%

23.3%

23.9%

24.8%

30.9%

30.2%

Hydropower
Renewables
Other sources

2,000
0
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Renewable Energy Supply


Quadrillion British
Thermal Units (Btu)
Forecast

9
8
7

Solar power
Geothermal
Other biomass
Wind power
Liquid biofuels
Wood biomass
Hydropower

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Other
biomass includes municipal waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, and other non-wood waste.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share


of Gross Domestic Product
Forecast

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth


(change from previous year)
9%

Forecast

6%
3%
0%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-15%
2010

2011
All fossil fuels

Coal

2012
Petroleum

2013
Natural gas

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
450
400
350
300
250

2010
2011
2012
2013
Normal

200
150
100
50
0
APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Note: Some data for 2012 and 2013 may represent projections.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

AUG

SEP

2013

U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
1200
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Normal

1000

800

600

400

200

0
OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Note: Some data for 2012 and 2013 may represent projections.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions


AK

Pacific

WEST
WA

MIDWEST
ND

MT

OR

Pacific
NV
CA

West
North
Central

SD
W

ID

Mountain
CO

NORTHEAST

MN

NE

VT
W

IA
MO

KS

UT

East
MI
North
Central OH
IL

Middle
Atlantic

PA

IN

WV
NM

AZ

Pacific
HI

VA

KY
OK
TX

EastTN

AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2012

NH

MA
RI
CT
NJ

DE
MD

NC

South
Atlantic
GA

SC

LEGEND
REGION
Division
State

FL

SOUTH

ME

New

NY England

Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 201
2011

2012

Year-over-year Change
(percent)
Q2
Q3
Season

Q2

Q3

Season

Q2

Q3

Season

WTI Crude Oil (Spot) a

2.43

2.14

2.29

2.47

2.50

2.48

1.3

17.0

8.7

Imported Crude Oil Priceb

2.59

2.43

2.51

2.62

2.64

2.63

1.3

8.8

5.0

U.S. Refiner Average Crude Oil Cost

2.57

2.40

2.48

2.61

2.63

2.62

1.2

9.8

5.5

Wholesale Gasoline Pricec

3.12

2.97

3.04

3.13

3.07

3.10

0.3

3.5

1.9

Wholesale Diesel Fuel Price

3.16

3.07

3.11

3.22

3.24

3.23

1.9

5.8

3.8

Regular Gasoline Retail Priced

3.80

3.63

3.71

3.83

3.76

3.79

0.9

3.5

2.1

Diesel Fuel Retail Priced

4.01

3.87

3.94

4.08

4.09

4.08

1.7

5.7

3.7

Nominal Prices (dollars per gallon)

Gasoline Consumption/Supply (million barrels per day)


Total Consumption

8.863

8.875

8.869

8.804

8.848

8.826

-0.7

-0.3

-0.5

Total Refinery and Blender Outpute

7.482

7.818

7.651

7.475

7.613

7.544

-0.1

-2.6

-1.4

-1.1

0.3

-0.4

-20.3

75.7

8.6

Fuel Ethanol Blending

0.856

0.842

0.849

0.847

0.844

0.845

Total Stock Withdrawal f

-0.003

-0.010

-0.007

0.061

-0.004

0.028

Net Imports f

0.529

0.225

0.376

0.422

0.396

0.409

Refinery Utilization (percent)

85.8

89.8

87.8

87.7

89.4

88.5

Gasoline Stocks, Including Blending Components (million barrels)


Beginning

214.9

215.2

214.9

220.7

215.1

220.7

Ending

215.2

216.1

216.1

215.1

215.5

215.5

Economic Indicators (annualized billion 2000 dollars)


Real GDP

13,272

13,332

13,302

13,567

13,634

13,600

2.2

2.3

2.2

Real Income

10,170

10,189

10,179

10,268

10,323

10,296

1.0

1.3

1.1

Spot Price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil


Cost of imported crude oil to U.S. refiners.
c
Price product sold by refiners to resellers.
d
Average pump price including taxes.
e
Refinery and blender net production plus finished motor gasoline adjustment.
f
Total stock withdrawal and net imports includes both finished gasoline and gasoline blend components.
GDP = gross domestic product.
b

Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data
are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).
Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2013
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................

5.53

5.60

5.57

5.95

6.14

6.21

6.10

6.25

6.30

6.35

6.32

6.46

5.66

6.17

6.36

Dry Natural Gas Production


(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

60.83

62.75

63.10

65.32

65.88

65.98

65.76

65.76

66.02

65.92

65.90

66.12

63.01

65.84

65.99

Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................

274

264

275

282

257

231

246

248

230

236

244

246

1,094

982

955

Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................

19.09

18.75

18.84

18.68

18.41

18.77

18.97

18.87

18.75

18.86

18.99

18.91

18.84

18.76

18.88

Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

83.91

56.61

58.67

68.13

81.14

61.64

62.53

75.39

87.32

60.35

62.28

75.06

66.76

70.17

71.19

Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................

255

242

280

227

208

199

243

226

225

205

240

221

1,003

876

890

Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................

10.56

10.09

11.92

9.68

10.03

10.10

11.72

10.06

10.59

10.21

11.75

10.15

10.57

10.48

10.68

Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

2.08

2.29

2.02

2.00

2.05

2.23

2.00

1.97

2.03

2.21

1.99

2.00

8.39

8.25

8.24

Total Energy Consumption (d)


(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

25.96

23.18

24.43

23.99

25.13

23.00

24.12

24.70

25.51

23.09

24.09

24.66

97.56

96.94

97.35

Crude Oil (e)


(dollars per barrel) .......................................

93.98

108.13

100.61

104.55

107.87

109.42

110.50

110.50

109.00

107.75

108.75

107.75

101.90

109.59

108.31

Natural Gas Wellhead


(dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................

4.06

4.10

4.10

3.37

2.53

2.06

2.31

2.70

2.95

2.95

3.10

3.25

3.90

2.40

3.06

Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................

2.34

2.42

2.46

2.37

2.41

2.34

2.32

2.27

2.30

2.25

2.24

2.19

2.40

2.33

2.24

Real Gross Domestic Product


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

13,228
2.2

13,272
1.6

13,332
1.5

13,429
1.6

13,498
2.0

13,567
2.2

13,634
2.3

13,704
2.0

13,779
2.1

13,872
2.2

13,976
2.5

14,102
2.9

13,315
1.7

13,601
2.1

13,932
2.4

GDP Implicit Price Deflator


(Index, 2005=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................

112.4
1.8

113.1
2.1

113.8
2.4

114.1
2.1

114.5
1.9

114.8
1.5

115.3
1.3

115.7
1.5

116.1
1.4

116.3
1.3

116.8
1.3

117.3
1.3

113.3
2.1

115.1
1.5

116.6
1.3

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

10,183
2.6

10,170
1.1

10,189
0.7

10,232
0.8

10,221
0.4

10,268
1.0

10,323
1.3

10,375
1.4

10,416
1.9

10,466
1.9

10,517
1.9

10,590
2.1

10,193
1.3

10,297
1.0

10,497
1.9

90.4
6.8

90.6
4.0

91.7
3.9

92.9
4.4

95.1
5.2

96.0
6.0

97.0
5.7

97.6
5.1

98.3
3.4

99.2
3.3

100.3
3.4

101.4
3.9

91.4
4.8

96.4
5.5

99.8
3.5

2,285
33

517
432

77
942

1,441
70

1,782
53

484
371

97
784

1,625
78

2,215
35

530
349

99
787

1,617
83

4,320
1,477

3,988
1,286

4,462
1,255

Energy Consumption

Energy Prices

Macroeconomic

Manufacturing Production Index


(Index, 2007=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................
Weather
U.S. Heating Degree-Days ..........................
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ..........................

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011

2012
4th

1st

2011

Year
2012

2013

104.00
108.00
107.75

94.86
102.67
101.90

104.12
110.21
109.59

103.75
108.56
108.31

303
319
309

289
312
306

287
303
291

303
321
315

298
317
310

321
253

320
254

314
255

305
239

323
264

319
255

361
367
403
409

373
379
406
402

373
379
404
396

358
364
399
401

353
358
384
368

371
376
406
391

367
372
403
407

2.70
2.87
2.78

2.95
3.19
3.09

2.95
3.15
3.06

3.10
3.25
3.15

3.25
3.50
3.40

3.90
4.12
4.00

2.40
2.52
2.45

3.06
3.27
3.17

3.41
8.04
14.81

4.02
8.10
10.20

4.49
8.13
9.52

4.04
8.40
11.53

4.16
8.99
15.72

4.61
8.93
10.96

5.02
8.85
10.79

3.72
7.99
10.38

4.33
8.52
10.70

2.34
2.84
19.97
23.76

2.32
2.96
19.63
23.98

2.27
3.55
19.38
24.49

2.30
3.78
19.18
24.11

2.25
3.70
18.84
24.12

2.24
3.67
18.72
24.13

2.19
4.08
18.62
24.22

2.40
4.71
18.49
22.40

2.33
3.12
19.85
23.96

2.24
3.79
18.83
24.15

6.71
10.26
12.10

7.06
10.65
12.24

6.63
10.08
11.49

6.56
9.90
11.21

6.69
10.25
11.89

7.02
10.61
12.02

6.59
10.02
11.33

6.89
10.32
11.79

6.73
10.26
11.87

6.72
10.21
11.62

1st

2nd

3rd

2nd

93.50
94.23
93.98

102.22
108.72
108.13

89.72
102.05
100.61

93.99
105.36
104.55

102.88
108.69
107.87

103.60
110.17
109.42

267
286
275

312
316
305

297
307
295

271
304
296

296
314
311

287
218

322
246

308
249

303
250

329
335
363
359

380
385
401
391

363
369
387
367

Average Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ......


Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ..........
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) .........................
End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

4.06
4.31
4.18

4.10
4.50
4.37

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................
Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

5.45
8.75
9.96

Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Industrial Sector ............................................................
Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................

2013
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

105.00
111.00
110.50

105.00
111.00
110.50

104.00
109.25
109.00

103.00
108.00
107.75

104.00
109.00
108.75

313
322
313

307
324
316

294
324
320

296
318
314

306
319
309

318
267

324
263

325
262

325
263

322
259

337
342
387
366

361
367
397
376

383
388
408
394

376
382
409
398

362
368
410
411

4.10
4.25
4.12

3.37
3.42
3.32

2.53
2.52
2.45

2.06
2.21
2.14

2.31
2.49
2.41

5.15
9.15
11.96

4.94
9.71
15.51

4.53
8.51
10.44

4.12
8.05
9.55

3.28
7.59
10.92

2.34
5.02
15.88
20.79

2.42
4.92
18.29
23.37

2.46
4.76
20.10
22.74

2.37
4.13
20.05
22.86

2.41
3.25
20.54
23.43

6.63
9.97
11.19

6.86
10.38
11.95

7.36
10.76
12.18

6.68
10.07
11.82

6.52
9.96
11.55

4th

Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)


West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ...........................
Imported Average .............................................................
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ....................................
Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)
Refiner Prices for Resale
Gasoline ........................................................................
Diesel Fuel ....................................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel .........................................................................
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ..........................................
Gasoline All Grades (b) .................................................
On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Natural Gas

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011

2012

2013

Year
2012

2013

21.55
10.08
3.67
2.96
3.34
1.49
65.62
35.31
29.83
5.48
13.31
4.29
12.71
87.16

22.18
10.68
3.78
2.93
3.25
1.54
66.97
36.55
30.85
5.70
13.45
4.43
12.53
89.15

22.29
10.84
3.95
2.86
3.13
1.52
67.75
36.39
30.59
5.79
13.64
4.51
13.21
90.05

54.06

51.85

52.60

53.66

45.10
18.99
0.33
2.24
13.94
4.30
5.30
45.64
5.03
0.78
10.86
10.26
18.71
90.74

45.63
18.91
0.33
2.21
13.92
4.72
5.55
44.85
5.03
0.78
10.57
10.55
17.92
90.48

45.56
18.84
0.30
2.23
14.27
4.48
5.45
42.36
4.64
0.75
9.79
10.21
16.96
87.92

45.20
18.76
0.32
2.20
13.93
4.56
5.44
43.68
4.79
0.76
10.21
10.44
17.49
88.88

45.17
18.88
0.33
2.19
13.74
4.58
5.44
44.87
4.92
0.77
10.65
10.49
18.04
90.04

-0.41
-0.08
-0.14
-0.63

-0.14
0.28
0.49
0.63

0.50
-0.24
-0.40
-0.15

0.12
0.16
0.49
0.76

-0.02
-0.11
-0.14
-0.27

0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01

1,094
2,679

1,106
2,665

1,060
2,642

1,056
2,593

1,064
2,643

1,060
2,642

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Supply (million barrels per day) (a)


OECD ................................................
U.S. (50 States) .............................
Canada ..........................................
Mexico ............................................
North Sea (b) .................................
Other OECD ...................................
Non-OECD ........................................
OPEC .............................................
Crude Oil Portion ........................
Other Liquids ...............................
Former Soviet Union ......................
China ..............................................
Other Non-OECD ...........................
Total World Supply ............................

21.46
9.73
3.67
2.99
3.61
1.47
65.91
35.31
29.78
5.53
13.35
4.36
12.89
87.37

21.16
9.97
3.42
2.98
3.34
1.45
64.86
34.62
29.20
5.42
13.35
4.33
12.56
86.03

21.26
10.01
3.71
2.94
3.10
1.49
65.54
35.40
29.99
5.42
13.25
4.22
12.67
86.79

22.29
10.58
3.86
2.94
3.34
1.57
66.16
35.89
30.35
5.54
13.30
4.26
12.71
88.46

22.36
10.72
3.78
2.94
3.35
1.56
66.71
36.49
30.80
5.69
13.43
4.31
12.48
89.07

22.22
10.69
3.75
2.94
3.30
1.54
67.12
36.93
31.26
5.67
13.36
4.41
12.42
89.34

21.88
10.56
3.73
2.92
3.10
1.56
67.06
36.55
30.84
5.71
13.49
4.47
12.54
88.93

22.28
10.73
3.86
2.90
3.26
1.52
66.98
36.24
30.50
5.74
13.54
4.52
12.68
89.26

22.23
10.73
3.86
2.88
3.25
1.51
67.23
36.22
30.46
5.76
13.53
4.48
12.99
89.46

22.24
10.84
3.90
2.86
3.12
1.51
67.73
36.32
30.55
5.77
13.68
4.51
13.22
89.97

22.21
10.81
4.01
2.85
3.00
1.54
67.89
36.42
30.64
5.79
13.66
4.52
13.29
90.11

22.49
10.97
4.04
2.83
3.13
1.52
68.14
36.57
30.73
5.84
13.69
4.53
13.35
90.63

Non-OPEC Supply ............................

52.06

51.41

51.39

52.56

52.58

52.41

52.39

53.02

53.24

53.65

53.68

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)


OECD ................................................
46.23
U.S. (50 States) .............................
19.09
U.S. Territories ...............................
0.30
Canada ..........................................
2.25
Europe ............................................ 14.20
Japan .............................................
4.86
Other OECD ...................................
5.54
Non-OECD ........................................
41.62
Former Soviet Union ......................
4.57
Europe ............................................
0.74
China ..............................................
9.99
Other Asia ......................................
10.20
Other Non-OECD ...........................
16.12
Total World Consumption .................
87.84

44.49
18.75
0.30
2.15
14.12
3.92
5.25
42.48
4.49
0.74
9.78
10.39
17.07
86.97

45.88
18.84
0.30
2.29
14.69
4.32
5.44
42.77
4.76
0.77
9.57
10.00
17.68
88.65

45.66
18.68
0.30
2.23
14.06
4.82
5.57
42.56
4.75
0.77
9.82
10.27
16.95
88.22

45.46
18.41
0.32
2.20
13.68
5.27
5.58
42.96
4.72
0.74
10.14
10.42
16.95
88.42

44.38
18.77
0.32
2.14
13.65
4.18
5.32
43.75
4.64
0.75
10.17
10.65
17.55
88.13

45.22
18.97
0.32
2.24
14.19
4.20
5.30
44.30
4.91
0.77
10.36
10.20
18.07
89.52

45.72
18.87
0.32
2.21
14.18
4.60
5.55
43.71
4.90
0.77
10.18
10.48
17.37
89.43

45.49
18.75
0.33
2.19
13.61
5.06
5.55
44.08
4.84
0.75
10.61
10.48
17.39
89.57

44.44
18.86
0.33
2.12
13.50
4.27
5.37
44.89
4.76
0.76
10.57
10.67
18.14
89.34

Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)


U.S. (50 States) ................................
0.27
-0.42
Other OECD ......................................
0.18
-0.09
Other Stock Draws and Balance ......
0.02
1.45
Total Stock Draw ............................
0.47
0.94

0.29
0.18
1.39
1.85

0.32
0.36
-0.91
-0.23

-0.21
-0.24
-0.20
-0.65

-0.30
-0.34
-0.58
-1.21

-0.14
0.27
0.46
0.58

0.56
-0.15
-0.24
0.17

0.09
0.01
0.01
0.11

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


U.S. Commercial Inventory ..............
1,043
OECD Commercial Inventory ...........
2,622

1,085
2,656

1,056
2,593

1,075
2,634

1,102
2,692

1,115
2,680

1,064
2,643

1,056
2,634

1,081
2,668

2011

- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Monthly OECD supply and consumption does not yet include Chile, Estonia, Israel, or Slovenia.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011

2012

2013

Year
2012

2013

16.71
3.67
2.96
10.08

17.39
3.78
2.93
10.68

17.65
3.95
2.86
10.84

5.29
0.77
3.00
1.07
0.45

4.85
0.76
2.69
0.93
0.46

5.02
0.78
2.82
0.97
0.45

5.22
0.77
2.95
1.04
0.45

3.91
1.89
0.90
0.21

4.04
1.98
0.94
0.21

4.29
2.01
1.08
0.26

4.18
2.01
1.01
0.24

4.03
1.94
0.97
0.22

13.68
0.98
1.77
10.43
0.26
0.50

13.66
0.96
1.81
10.39
0.27
0.51

13.69
0.94
1.85
10.40
0.27
0.51

13.31
0.99
1.64
10.23
0.22
0.45

13.45
1.05
1.63
10.28
0.24
0.49

13.64
0.97
1.79
10.38
0.27
0.50

1.48
0.88
0.35
0.20

1.48
0.88
0.35
0.20

1.48
0.88
0.35
0.20

1.48
0.89
0.34
0.20

1.43
0.89
0.33
0.16

1.36
0.88
0.25
0.18

1.48
0.88
0.35
0.20

9.02
0.53
4.52
0.94
0.97
0.65
0.37

9.02
0.53
4.48
0.95
0.97
0.67
0.37

9.07
0.54
4.51
0.95
0.97
0.68
0.38

9.12
0.56
4.52
0.95
0.97
0.70
0.39

9.09
0.53
4.53
0.94
0.97
0.68
0.39

8.67
0.48
4.29
0.94
0.97
0.61
0.32

8.92
0.55
4.43
0.94
0.97
0.64
0.36

9.07
0.54
4.51
0.95
0.97
0.68
0.38

2.25
0.70
0.34
0.25
0.06

2.25
0.69
0.34
0.25
0.06

2.44
0.69
0.33
0.25
0.25

2.61
0.68
0.33
0.25
0.43

2.61
0.68
0.33
0.26
0.44

2.63
0.67
0.35
0.26
0.44

2.60
0.71
0.30
0.24
0.43

2.28
0.70
0.34
0.25
0.09

2.58
0.68
0.34
0.26
0.39

52.41

52.39

53.02

53.24

53.65

53.68

54.06

51.85

52.60

53.66

5.67
58.08

5.71
58.10

5.74
58.76

5.76
59.00

5.77
59.42

5.79
59.47

5.84
59.90

5.48
57.33

5.70
58.30

5.79
59.45

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

North America ...................................


Canada ................................................
Mexico ..................................................
United States .......................................

16.39
3.67
2.99
9.73

16.38
3.42
2.98
9.97

16.66
3.71
2.94
10.01

17.38
3.86
2.94
10.58

17.45
3.78
2.94
10.72

17.38
3.75
2.94
10.69

17.22
3.73
2.92
10.56

17.50
3.86
2.90
10.73

17.47
3.86
2.88
10.73

17.61
3.90
2.86
10.84

17.67
4.01
2.85
10.81

17.84
4.04
2.83
10.97

Central and South America ............


Argentina .............................................
Brazil ....................................................
Colombia ..............................................
Other Central and S. America .............

4.80
0.78
2.67
0.88
0.47

4.79
0.71
2.68
0.94
0.46

4.84
0.78
2.67
0.94
0.46

4.95
0.79
2.75
0.96
0.45

4.96
0.77
2.79
0.95
0.44

4.98
0.78
2.78
0.96
0.45

5.06
0.79
2.84
0.98
0.45

5.08
0.78
2.85
1.01
0.45

5.14
0.78
2.90
1.02
0.45

5.18
0.77
2.93
1.03
0.45

5.24
0.78
2.97
1.05
0.45

Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................

4.54
2.10
1.23
0.27

4.27
1.94
1.13
0.27

4.06
1.94
0.91
0.25

4.30
2.03
1.07
0.24

4.30
2.06
1.05
0.24

4.22
2.05
1.01
0.24

4.02
1.91
0.96
0.23

4.18
1.99
1.04
0.23

4.16
1.95
1.07
0.23

4.02
1.95
0.95
0.22

Former Soviet Union (FSU) ..............


Azerbaijan ............................................
Kazakhstan ..........................................
Russia ..................................................
Turkmenistan .......................................
Other FSU ...........................................

13.35
1.00
1.67
10.22
0.22
0.45

13.35
1.00
1.65
10.24
0.22
0.45

13.25
0.97
1.63
10.19
0.22
0.45

13.30
0.98
1.61
10.25
0.23
0.46

13.43
0.96
1.63
10.35
0.24
0.48

13.36
0.99
1.62
10.25
0.24
0.50

13.49
1.14
1.63
10.23
0.25
0.50

13.54
1.12
1.64
10.28
0.25
0.50

13.53
1.00
1.75
10.29
0.26
0.50

Middle East ........................................


Oman ...................................................
Syria .....................................................
Yemen .................................................

1.56
0.89
0.38
0.24

1.40
0.87
0.38
0.10

1.44
0.90
0.34
0.15

1.34
0.89
0.23
0.16

1.28
0.89
0.20
0.14

1.34
0.88
0.22
0.19

1.37
0.88
0.25
0.19

1.46
0.88
0.33
0.19

Asia and Oceania ............................


Australia ...............................................
China ...................................................
India .....................................................
Indonesia .............................................
Malaysia ...............................................
Vietnam ................................................

8.81
0.46
4.36
0.95
0.99
0.66
0.33

8.63
0.45
4.33
0.95
0.97
0.58
0.31

8.54
0.46
4.22
0.94
0.97
0.59
0.31

8.69
0.55
4.26
0.94
0.96
0.61
0.34

8.79
0.55
4.31
0.94
0.97
0.65
0.34

8.89
0.55
4.41
0.94
0.97
0.63
0.36

8.98
0.56
4.47
0.94
0.97
0.63
0.37

Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................

2.61
0.71
0.30
0.25
0.46

2.59
0.71
0.30
0.23
0.43

2.59
0.70
0.29
0.24
0.43

2.61
0.70
0.32
0.25
0.42

2.38
0.70
0.34
0.25
0.19

2.25
0.70
0.34
0.25
0.06

Total non-OPEC liquids ....................

52.06

51.41

51.39

52.56

52.58

OPEC non-crude liquids .................


Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .......

5.53
57.59

5.42
56.83

5.42
56.81

5.54
58.10

5.69
58.27

2011

- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011

2012

2013

Year
2012

2013

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.66
2.60
2.48
0.47
2.13
0.85
9.42
2.57
2.20
29.83

30.85

30.59

5.84

5.48

5.70

5.79

36.42

36.57

35.31

36.55

36.39

7.24
2.69
24.13
34.05

7.30
2.68
24.15
34.14

7.37
2.68
24.18
34.23

5.56
2.70
24.60
32.85

33.64

34.09

0.00
0.00
3.50
3.50

0.00
0.00
3.50
3.50

0.00
0.00
3.50
3.50

0.00
0.00
3.02
3.02

2.79

3.50

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Crude Oil
Algeria ..........................................
Angola ..........................................
Ecudaor ........................................
Iran ...............................................
Iraq ...............................................
Kuwait ...........................................
Libya .............................................
Nigeria ..........................................
Qatar ............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ...............................

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.78

1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.50
0.17
2.15
0.85
9.13
2.60
2.20
29.20

1.27
1.70
0.49
3.65
2.63
2.53
0.07
2.19
0.85
9.80
2.60
2.20
29.99

1.27
1.78
0.50
3.58
2.70
2.55
0.55
2.03
0.85
9.70
2.63
2.20
30.35

1.27
1.78
0.50
3.40
2.64
2.58
1.17
2.12
0.85
9.80
2.50
2.20
30.80

31.26

30.84

30.50

30.46

30.55

30.64

30.73

Other Liquids .................................

5.53

5.42

5.42

5.54

5.69

5.67

5.71

5.74

5.76

5.77

5.79

Total OPEC Supply ........................

35.31

34.62

35.40

35.89

36.49

36.93

36.55

36.24

36.22

36.32

Crude Oil Production Capacity


Africa ............................................
South America ..............................
Middle East ...................................
OPEC Total ...............................

6.19
2.70
24.56
33.45

5.18
2.70
24.58
32.46

5.22
2.69
24.62
32.54

5.65
2.70
24.62
32.97

6.33
2.70
24.18
33.21

6.74
2.69
24.23
33.66

6.90
2.68
24.28
33.87

6.99
2.68
24.13
33.80

7.17
2.69
24.10
33.96

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


Africa ............................................
0.00
South America ..............................
0.00
Middle East ...................................
3.67
OPEC Total ...............................
3.67

0.00
0.00
3.26
3.26

0.00
0.00
2.55
2.55

0.02
0.00
2.60
2.62

0.00
0.00
2.41
2.41

0.00
0.00
2.40
2.40

0.00
0.00
3.03
3.03

0.00
0.00
3.30
3.30

0.00
0.00
3.50
3.50

2011

- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria (Africa); Ecuador and Venezuela (South America); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United
Arab Emirates (Middle East).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011

2012

2013

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

North America ............................................................


Canada ........................................................................
Mexico .........................................................................
United States ...............................................................

23.40
2.25
2.05
19.09

22.97
2.15
2.06
18.75

23.23
2.29
2.09
18.84

23.03
2.23
2.11
18.68

22.69
2.20
2.06
18.41

23.03
2.14
2.11
18.77

23.31
2.24
2.09
18.97

23.19
2.21
2.10
18.87

23.05
2.19
2.10
18.75

23.10
2.12
2.12
18.86

23.33
2.24
2.09
18.99

23.22
2.21
2.10
18.91

Central and South America .....................................


Brazil ............................................................................

6.26
2.50

6.49
2.59

6.51
2.65

6.49
2.64

6.44
2.61

6.68
2.71

6.70
2.77

6.68
2.75

6.70
2.74

6.94
2.84

6.97
2.90

Europe .......................................................................

14.93

14.86

15.45

14.83

14.42

14.40

14.96

14.95

14.36

14.25

Former Soviet Union ..................................................


Russia ..........................................................................

4.57
3.09

4.49
3.05

4.76
3.22

4.75
3.22

4.72
3.19

4.64
3.15

4.91
3.33

4.90
3.32

4.84
3.26

Middle East ................................................................

6.78

7.53

8.13

7.39

7.33

7.71

8.23

7.52

Asia and Oceania .....................................................


China ...........................................................................
Japan ...........................................................................
India .............................................................................

28.55
9.99
4.86
3.36

27.29
9.78
3.92
3.35

27.26
9.57
4.32
3.07

28.39
9.82
4.82
3.32

29.35
10.14
5.27
3.46

28.22
10.17
4.18
3.48

27.98
10.36
4.20
3.16

Africa ..........................................................................

3.36

3.34

3.31

3.35

3.47

3.45

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ..................


Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ...........

46.23
41.62

44.49
42.48

45.88
42.77

45.66
42.56

45.46
42.96

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ...................

87.84

86.97

88.65

88.22

Oil-weighted Real Gross Domestic Product (a)


World Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 .......................................
Percent change from prior year ................................
OECD Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 .......................................
Percent change from prior year ................................
Non-OECD Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 ...............................
Percent change from prior year ................................

109.5
3.6
101.5
2.2
121.6
5.6

109.9
2.8
101.8
1.5
122.4
4.7

110.8
2.9
102.4
1.6
123.7
4.8

Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (a)


Index, January 2007 = 100 ..........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

96.28
-1.9

94.59
-5.2

95.08
-3.9

2011

2012

2013

23.15
2.23
2.08
18.84

23.06
2.20
2.09
18.76

23.18
2.19
2.10
18.88

6.95
2.89

6.44
2.59

6.63
2.71

6.89
2.85

14.72

14.70

15.02

14.68

14.51

4.76
3.21

5.03
3.40

5.03
3.39

4.64
3.14

4.79
3.25

4.92
3.32

7.39

7.92

8.48

7.68

7.46

7.70

7.87

28.73
10.18
4.60
3.41

29.62
10.61
5.06
3.56

28.77
10.57
4.27
3.54

28.65
10.86
4.30
3.25

29.30
10.57
4.72
3.51

27.87
9.79
4.48
3.28

28.57
10.21
4.56
3.38

29.08
10.65
4.58
3.46

3.43

3.46

3.62

3.59

3.57

3.60

3.34

3.45

3.59

44.38
43.75

45.22
44.30

45.72
43.71

45.49
44.08

44.44
44.89

45.10
45.64

45.63
44.85

45.56
42.36

45.20
43.68

45.17
44.87

88.42

88.13

89.52

89.43

89.57

89.34

90.74

90.48

87.92

88.88

90.04

111.4
2.5
102.6
1.3
124.9
4.1

112.2
2.5
102.9
1.3
126.6
4.1

113.1
2.9
103.2
1.5
128.5
5.0

114.1
3.0
103.7
1.3
130.4
5.4

115.0
3.3
104.2
1.6
132.0
5.7

116.0
3.4
104.7
1.8
133.7
5.6

117.1
3.5
105.3
2.0
135.8
5.7

118.3
3.7
106.0
2.3
137.7
5.7

119.4
3.8
106.8
2.5
139.6
5.7

110.4
3.0
102.1
1.6
123.2
4.8

113.6
2.9
103.5
1.4
129.4
5.0

117.7
3.6
105.7
2.2
136.7
5.7

97.69
0.8

97.77
1.6

97.68
3.3

97.77
2.8

97.74
0.1

97.77
0.0

97.58
-0.1

97.51
-0.3

97.42
-0.3

95.91
-2.6

97.74
1.9

97.57
-0.2

- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................

2nd

2012

2013

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

5.53
0.57
1.45
3.51
8.68
0.00
-0.32
0.36
14.23

5.60
0.59
1.35
3.66
8.95
0.00
0.05
0.23
14.81

5.57
0.53
1.20
3.84
9.07
0.33
0.29
0.24
15.50

5.95
0.60
1.28
4.07
8.80
0.00
0.01
0.02
14.78

6.14
0.59
1.32
4.22
8.65
0.00
-0.36
0.09
14.52

6.21
0.54
1.33
4.34
8.69
0.00
-0.02
0.10
14.98

6.10
0.50
1.24
4.37
8.88
0.00
0.15
0.07
15.21

6.25
0.55
1.30
4.40
8.16
0.00
0.17
0.05
14.62

6.30
0.56
1.31
4.44
8.15
0.00
-0.27
0.09
14.27

6.35
0.53
1.33
4.49
8.60
0.00
0.04
0.14
15.13

6.32
0.47
1.30
4.55
8.76
0.00
0.14
0.07
15.29

6.46
0.53
1.32
4.60
8.03
0.00
0.15
0.04
14.69

5.66
0.57
1.32
3.77
8.87
0.08
0.01
0.21
14.83

6.17
0.54
1.30
4.33
8.59
0.00
-0.01
0.08
14.83

6.36
0.52
1.32
4.52
8.39
0.00
0.02
0.09
14.85

1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.60
19.08

1.06
2.19
0.94
0.89
0.19
0.02
0.06
-0.08
0.65
-0.11
0.83
-0.31
0.01
-0.62
-0.03
-0.38
-0.46
18.75

1.13
2.18
0.94
0.90
0.19
-0.77
-0.03
-0.05
0.63
-0.11
0.59
-0.37
-0.03
-0.75
-0.22
-0.45
-0.33
18.84

1.12
2.32
0.98
0.94
0.21
-1.04
-0.03
0.02
0.60
-0.15
0.57
-0.52
-0.05
-0.90
-0.08
-0.50
0.31
18.68

1.06
2.37
0.96
0.91
0.20
-0.80
-0.05
-0.03
0.55
-0.09
0.54
-0.29
-0.09
-0.77
-0.12
-0.44
0.15
18.45

1.06
2.31
0.93
0.89
0.18
-0.39
-0.01
-0.12
0.64
-0.08
0.65
-0.23
-0.03
-0.67
-0.08
-0.47
-0.28
18.79

1.08
2.26
0.93
0.90
0.19
-0.40
-0.02
-0.11
0.68
-0.10
0.66
-0.26
-0.01
-0.63
-0.15
-0.46
-0.29
18.97

1.07
2.28
0.94
0.90
0.19
-0.62
-0.02
-0.11
0.62
-0.09
0.60
-0.47
-0.02
-0.62
-0.08
-0.43
0.38
18.87

1.05
2.25
0.94
0.91
0.19
-0.31
-0.02
-0.07
0.60
-0.09
0.59
-0.38
0.02
-0.57
-0.03
-0.37
0.36
18.75

1.06
2.29
0.94
0.91
0.20
-0.31
-0.01
-0.10
0.63
-0.09
0.69
-0.32
-0.01
-0.62
-0.02
-0.46
-0.45
18.86

1.08
2.26
0.94
0.91
0.21
-0.52
-0.01
-0.06
0.67
-0.08
0.64
-0.34
-0.02
-0.67
-0.16
-0.46
-0.27
18.99

1.07
2.29
0.94
0.90
0.21
-0.64
-0.02
-0.06
0.62
-0.08
0.62
-0.54
-0.03
-0.63
-0.09
-0.42
0.35
18.91

1.08
2.18
0.95
0.91
0.19
-0.44
0.00
-0.02
0.62
-0.12
0.66
-0.37
-0.03
-0.68
-0.08
-0.43
0.03
18.83

1.07
2.31
0.94
0.90
0.19
-0.55
-0.03
-0.09
0.62
-0.09
0.61
-0.32
-0.04
-0.67
-0.11
-0.45
-0.01
18.77

1.06
2.27
0.94
0.91
0.20
-0.44
-0.02
-0.07
0.63
-0.09
0.63
-0.39
-0.01
-0.62
-0.08
-0.43
-0.01
18.88

0.10
2.45
0.06

0.11
1.95
-0.03

0.08
1.98
0.00

0.07
2.30
-0.03

0.08
2.36
0.08

0.09
2.01
0.02

0.11
2.06
0.00

0.11
2.32
0.00

0.10
2.45
0.01

0.09
2.00
0.00

0.11
2.08
0.00

0.11
2.34
0.00

0.09
2.17
0.00

0.10
2.19
0.03

0.10
2.21
0.00

8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09

8.86
1.47
3.75
0.52
2.11
18.75

8.87
1.48
3.78
0.37
2.26
18.84

8.60
1.38
3.93
0.44
1.98
18.68

8.46
1.34
3.80
0.40
1.91
18.41

8.80
1.42
3.81
0.48
2.13
18.77

8.85
1.46
3.88
0.40
2.21
18.97

8.59
1.42
4.01
0.44
1.97
18.87

8.37
1.41
4.02
0.51
1.89
18.75

8.81
1.44
3.88
0.52
2.12
18.86

8.83
1.45
3.92
0.39
2.21
18.99

8.57
1.42
4.05
0.43
1.98
18.91

8.74
1.43
3.85
0.48
2.08
18.84

8.67
1.41
3.88
0.43
2.06
18.76

8.65
1.43
3.97
0.46
2.05
18.88

................................

8.74

8.97

8.29

7.76

7.84

8.30

8.48

7.54

7.84

8.28

8.25

7.40

8.44

8.04

7.94

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Commercial Inventory
Crude Oil (excluding SPR) .....................................
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates .............................................
Total Motor Gasoline ..............................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Commercial Inventory .......................................
Crude Oil in SPR .......................................................
Heating Oil Reserve ..................................................

362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0

358.5
15.3
105.3
91.9
21.2
215.2
56.4
158.8
42.3
143.7
37.4
50.5
1,081
727
0.0

331.8
16.8
132.5
89.1
20.7
216.1
57.1
159.0
46.0
153.7
34.6
43.8
1,085
696
0.0

330.9
17.6
111.1
79.1
21.3
224.3
61.4
162.8
41.7
149.7
34.1
45.8
1,056
696
1.0

363.2
14.5
100.0
88.8
25.4
220.7
57.0
163.7
40.0
134.7
35.3
51.9
1,075
696
1.0

365.1
16.0
136.9
86.0
24.7
215.1
56.8
158.3
40.5
132.4
34.4
50.7
1,102
696
1.0

351.5
16.5
158.3
85.2
25.2
215.5
56.4
159.1
42.2
142.8
34.3
43.6
1,115
696
1.0

335.8
14.4
119.5
80.0
24.5
223.6
57.4
166.2
40.3
144.7
36.7
44.5
1,064
696
1.0

359.7
14.0
85.4
89.5
25.9
223.2
56.3
166.9
40.9
127.7
36.3
53.5
1,056
696
1.0

356.1
15.6
124.6
87.4
25.2
218.3
57.8
160.4
41.8
137.2
36.8
50.7
1,094
696
1.0

343.6
16.4
149.6
85.5
25.7
216.3
57.9
158.4
43.2
147.1
35.3
43.6
1,106
696
1.0

329.7
14.0
114.3
79.6
25.0
226.2
60.1
166.1
41.2
149.0
37.0
44.4
1,060
696
1.0

330.9
17.6
111.1
79.1
21.3
224.3
61.4
162.8
41.7
149.7
34.1
45.8
1,056
696
1.0

335.8
14.4
119.5
80.0
24.5
223.6
57.4
166.2
40.3
144.7
36.7
44.5
1,064
696
1.0

329.7
14.0
114.3
79.6
25.0
226.2
60.1
166.1
41.2
149.0
37.0
44.4
1,060
696
1.0

Consumption (million barrels per day)


Natural Gas Liquids and Other Liquids
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Finished Liquid Fuels
Motor Gasoline .......................................................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Consumption ....................................................
Total Liquid Fuels Net Imports

- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2013

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Crude OIl ............................................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates .......................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Components ....................
Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ...................

14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78

14.81
0.18
0.26
1.01
0.63
0.82
0.00
17.72

15.50
0.17
0.27
1.04
0.66
0.54
0.00
18.18

14.78
0.17
0.39
1.03
0.74
0.44
0.00
17.55

14.52
0.17
0.33
0.99
0.37
0.43
0.00
16.81

14.98
0.17
0.26
1.01
0.65
0.70
0.00
17.78

15.21
0.17
0.27
1.01
0.69
0.65
0.00
17.98

14.62
0.18
0.38
1.02
0.67
0.53
0.00
17.40

14.27
0.16
0.33
1.02
0.49
0.56
0.00
16.83

15.13
0.17
0.25
1.06
0.65
0.75
0.00
18.01

15.29
0.17
0.26
1.05
0.69
0.65
0.00
18.11

14.69
0.18
0.38
1.06
0.68
0.53
0.00
17.51

14.83
0.17
0.32
1.01
0.63
0.60
0.00
17.56

14.83
0.17
0.31
1.01
0.60
0.58
0.00
17.49

14.85
0.17
0.30
1.05
0.63
0.62
0.00
17.62

Refinery Processing Gain .................................

1.03

1.06

1.13

1.12

1.06

1.06

1.08

1.07

1.05

1.06

1.08

1.07

1.08

1.07

1.06

Refinery and Blender Net Production


Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ...............................................................
Distillate Fuel ......................................................
Residual Fuel ......................................................
Other Oils (a) ......................................................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ...........

0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80

0.81
9.12
1.49
4.31
0.55
2.50
18.78

0.74
9.19
1.55
4.63
0.56
2.64
19.31

0.42
9.06
1.39
4.78
0.51
2.51
18.67

0.51
8.58
1.41
4.41
0.53
2.41
17.86

0.80
9.00
1.45
4.45
0.56
2.59
18.84

0.73
9.07
1.49
4.62
0.55
2.59
19.06

0.41
9.03
1.43
4.65
0.55
2.41
18.47

0.51
8.68
1.39
4.40
0.54
2.35
17.88

0.80
9.11
1.45
4.61
0.55
2.54
19.07

0.73
9.13
1.49
4.70
0.54
2.60
19.19

0.41
9.10
1.42
4.70
0.54
2.41
18.58

0.62
9.03
1.45
4.49
0.54
2.51
18.64

0.61
8.92
1.44
4.53
0.55
2.50
18.56

0.61
9.01
1.44
4.60
0.54
2.48
18.68

Refinery Distillation Inputs ...............................


Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ..........
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor ..............

14.69
17.70
0.83

15.22
17.74
0.86

15.93
17.74
0.90

15.27
17.73
0.86

14.84
17.38
0.85

15.21
17.35
0.88

15.51
17.35
0.89

14.97
17.35
0.86

14.60
17.35
0.84

15.44
17.35
0.89

15.62
17.35
0.90

15.05
17.35
0.87

15.28
17.73
0.86

15.13
17.35
0.87

15.18
17.35
0.88

- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st

2nd

Prices (cents per gallon)


Refiner Wholesale Price .......................
267
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ..............................................
329
PADD 2 ..............................................
326
PADD 3 ..............................................
314
PADD 4 ..............................................
311
PADD 5 ..............................................
353
U.S. Average ...................................
329
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes
335
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
Total Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
55.0
PADD 2 ..............................................
50.5
PADD 3 ..............................................
70.3
PADD 4 ..............................................
6.5
PADD 5 ..............................................
32.7
U.S. Total ........................................
214.9
Finished Gasoline Inventories
U.S. Total ........................................
60.8
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
U.S. Total ........................................
154.1

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2013
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

312

297

271

296

313

307

294

296

306

303

289

287

303

298

377
380
365
365
400
380
385

364
364
349
355
377
363
369

337
329
317
337
368
337
342

363
355
345
321
390
361
367

382
376
369
375
409
383
388

374
371
360
371
403
376
382

363
355
345
355
390
362
368

362
356
345
347
385
361
367

372
369
359
365
397
373
379

371
369
357
370
400
373
379

359
351
341
353
385
358
364

352
350
336
342
375
353
358

371
364
355
355
398
371
376

366
361
350
359
392
367
372

55.1
49.5
73.5
6.6
30.4
215.2

56.4
49.9
75.0
5.9
28.9
216.1

59.1
52.1
75.8
7.6
29.6
224.3

58.3
53.2
71.8
6.6
30.8
220.7

56.6
51.4
72.1
6.7
28.4
215.1

56.5
51.0
73.0
6.5
28.5
215.5

59.7
50.6
76.1
6.9
30.3
223.6

58.6
51.2
76.7
6.6
30.0
223.2

58.2
50.8
74.3
6.3
28.7
218.3

57.1
50.2
74.0
6.3
28.8
216.3

61.7
50.9
77.9
6.7
29.1
226.2

59.1
52.1
75.8
7.6
29.6
224.3

59.7
50.6
76.1
6.9
30.3
223.6

61.7
50.9
77.9
6.7
29.1
226.2

56.4

57.1

61.4

57.0

56.8

56.4

57.4

56.3

57.8

57.9

60.1

61.4

57.4

60.1

158.8

159.0

162.8

163.7

158.3

159.1

166.2

166.9

160.4

158.4

166.1

162.8

166.2

166.1

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011

2012

2013

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

63.83
1.12
5.60
57.10
60.83
11.04
9.80
1.23
4.51
6.53
0.19
16.98
84.53
-0.62
83.91

65.96
1.00
5.23
59.73
62.75
8.95
7.89
1.05
4.16
4.79
0.14
-10.45
57.23
-0.62
56.61

66.30
0.86
4.54
60.90
63.10
8.97
8.20
0.77
3.82
5.15
0.16
-9.63
58.78
-0.11
58.67

68.74
1.02
4.58
63.14
65.32
8.94
8.16
0.78
4.04
4.90
0.18
-0.51
69.90
-1.77
68.13

69.16
1.02
4.63
63.51
65.88
9.27
8.61
0.66
4.49
4.78
0.19
10.85
81.69
-0.55
81.14

69.28
0.79
4.52
63.97
65.98
8.55
7.81
0.74
4.39
4.15
0.16
-8.52
61.77
-0.13
61.64

69.05
0.89
4.21
63.95
65.76
8.84
8.26
0.58
4.01
4.83
0.17
-7.17
63.59
-1.06
62.53

69.05
0.91
4.30
63.84
65.76
8.86
8.22
0.64
4.35
4.51
0.19
4.99
75.45
-0.06
75.39

69.32
0.97
4.63
63.71
66.02
10.10
9.31
0.79
4.75
5.36
0.19
16.41
87.97
-0.66
87.32

69.22
0.88
4.50
63.84
65.92
8.51
7.77
0.74
4.38
4.13
0.16
-10.82
59.39
0.96
60.35

69.20
0.95
4.32
63.94
65.90
8.84
8.27
0.58
4.11
4.74
0.17
-8.14
62.67
-0.38
62.28

69.43
0.95
4.42
64.06
66.12
8.98
8.34
0.64
4.46
4.52
0.19
4.78
75.60
-0.55
75.06

66.22
1.00
4.98
60.24
63.01
9.47
8.51
0.96
4.13
5.34
0.17
-0.97
67.55
-0.78
66.76

69.14
0.90
4.41
63.82
65.84
8.88
8.23
0.65
4.31
4.57
0.18
0.03
70.62
-0.45
70.17

69.30
0.94
4.47
63.89
65.99
9.10
8.42
0.69
4.42
4.68
0.18
0.50
71.35
-0.16
71.19

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)


Residential ...................................
26.14
Commercial .................................
14.76
Industrial ......................................
20.17
Electric Power (c) .........................
16.75
Lease and Plant Fuel ...................
3.65
Pipeline and Distribution Use .......
2.36
Vehicle Use .................................
0.09
Total Consumption ..........................
83.91

7.58
5.90
17.79
19.88
3.78
1.59
0.09
56.61

3.73
4.36
17.31
27.74
3.79
1.65
0.09
58.67

14.65
9.75
18.94
18.85
3.93
1.92
0.09
68.13

20.77
12.45
19.86
21.69
3.96
2.31
0.09
81.14

6.98
5.17
18.10
25.71
3.97
1.64
0.09
61.64

3.71
4.07
17.84
31.19
3.95
1.67
0.09
62.53

17.16
10.69
19.40
22.09
3.95
2.01
0.09
75.39

24.72
13.92
20.62
21.46
3.97
2.54
0.09
87.32

6.91
5.51
18.15
24.09
3.96
1.64
0.09
60.35

3.68
4.01
18.02
30.84
3.96
1.68
0.09
62.28

16.90
10.39
19.48
22.24
3.97
1.99
0.09
75.06

12.97
8.66
18.55
20.83
3.79
1.88
0.09
66.76

12.15
8.09
18.80
25.18
3.96
1.91
0.09
70.17

13.00
8.44
19.06
24.68
3.97
1.96
0.09
71.19

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)


Working Gas Inventory ................
1,581
Producing Region (d) ................
738
East Consuming Region (d) ......
618
West Consuming Region (d) .....
225

2,530
992
1,188
350

3,416
1,070
1,879
468

3,462
1,193
1,822
447

2,473
1,038
1,085
350

3,248
1,176
1,600
472

3,908
1,251
2,123
534

3,449
1,174
1,811
464

1,972
840
840
293

2,957
1,105
1,428
424

3,706
1,170
2,044
492

3,266
1,099
1,732
435

3,462
1,193
1,822
447

3,449
1,174
1,811
464

3,266
1,099
1,732
435

Supply (billion cubic feet per day)


Total Marketed Production ............
Alaska ......................................
Federal GOM (a) .......................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) .....
Total Dry Gas Production .............
Gross Imports ..............................
Pipeline ....................................
LNG ..........................................
Gross Exports ..............................
Net Imports ..................................
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ......
Net Inventory Withdrawals ...........
Total Supply ....................................
Balancing Item (b) ..........................
Total Primary Supply .......................

2011

Year
2012

1st

2013

- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2013
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

4.06
4.31

4.10
4.50

4.10
4.25

3.37
3.42

2.53
2.52

2.06
2.21

2.31
2.49

2.70
2.87

2.95
3.19

2.95
3.15

3.10
3.25

3.25
3.50

3.90
4.12

2.40
2.52

3.06
3.27

13.99
11.84
8.87
8.83
11.97
9.92
8.60
8.88
9.97
9.96

14.30
14.11
10.95
11.17
17.55
13.70
14.31
9.77
10.91
11.96

17.26
18.14
16.23
16.78
22.89
18.42
19.03
13.32
11.63
15.51

13.08
12.66
9.31
9.51
13.51
11.11
10.16
8.84
9.92
10.44

13.05
11.21
8.20
8.46
12.15
9.97
9.01
8.74
9.07
9.55

13.32
12.52
9.60
10.66
16.57
12.93
12.41
9.34
9.01
10.92

16.14
16.41
14.94
15.75
22.19
17.16
17.32
12.60
10.01
14.81

13.06
12.42
8.72
8.64
12.86
10.74
9.67
8.63
9.12
10.20

12.93
11.18
8.15
8.12
11.99
10.13
8.23
8.37
9.31
9.52

14.14
13.00
10.48
10.54
17.36
13.85
13.44
9.04
9.67
11.53

17.33
17.47
16.21
16.75
23.61
18.83
18.70
12.28
10.58
15.72

14.18
13.62
9.51
9.38
13.82
11.35
10.64
8.48
9.61
10.96

14.05
12.83
9.76
9.80
13.78
11.13
10.47
9.34
10.34
10.79

13.36
12.20
9.02
9.30
13.68
11.03
10.41
9.10
9.18
10.38

13.82
12.56
9.36
9.29
13.90
11.34
10.34
8.81
9.62
10.70

11.16
9.84
8.35
7.92
9.80
8.82
7.30
8.00
9.13
8.75

10.64
9.62
8.98
8.44
10.87
9.59
8.54
8.00
9.19
9.15

10.43
8.99
9.85
9.49
11.13
10.39
8.92
8.91
9.75
9.71

10.45
9.27
7.88
7.61
9.77
9.24
7.43
7.71
8.88
8.51

10.22
8.62
7.39
7.04
9.13
8.72
7.02
7.37
8.27
8.05

9.81
7.71
7.52
6.38
8.83
8.81
6.76
6.56
7.32
7.59

10.34
7.63
7.95
7.78
9.28
9.15
7.37
7.32
7.54
8.04

10.85
8.86
7.49
6.67
9.41
9.18
7.00
7.08
7.88
8.10

10.88
8.89
7.65
7.03
9.36
8.81
6.91
6.84
8.17
8.13

10.62
8.96
8.34
7.26
9.94
9.46
7.60
6.83
7.76
8.40

11.02
8.88
8.95
8.66
10.42
10.04
8.23
7.93
8.27
8.99

11.43
9.87
8.34
7.29
10.57
9.93
7.75
7.74
8.54
8.93

10.83
9.55
8.45
8.05
10.13
9.22
7.78
8.01
9.17
8.85

10.35
8.39
7.50
6.88
9.19
8.93
7.02
7.12
7.84
7.99

10.99
9.17
8.06
7.26
9.96
9.34
7.44
7.21
8.20
8.52

10.67
9.58
7.39
6.27
6.53
5.84
4.29
6.82
7.45
5.45

9.82
9.28
7.19
5.77
6.23
5.58
4.51
6.43
7.21
5.15

9.20
8.88
7.28
5.55
6.07
5.47
4.39
6.80
7.21
4.94

9.21
9.24
6.64
5.54
5.71
5.10
3.64
6.28
6.85
4.53

9.56
8.32
6.54
5.23
5.04
4.55
2.90
5.99
6.37
4.12

7.85
7.01
5.49
3.51
4.27
4.05
2.58
4.92
5.32
3.28

7.66
7.23
5.61
3.63
4.44
4.25
2.83
5.11
5.34
3.41

8.89
8.86
6.08
4.44
5.09
4.75
3.02
5.76
6.21
4.02

9.86
8.77
6.42
5.05
5.48
5.08
3.27
5.87
6.45
4.49

9.01
7.75
6.14
4.06
5.12
4.67
3.40
5.23
5.79
4.04

8.70
7.92
6.20
4.22
5.36
4.97
3.61
5.90
6.13
4.16

9.72
9.50
6.65
4.90
5.92
5.22
3.64
6.38
6.90
4.61

9.84
9.36
7.15
5.81
6.15
5.51
4.21
6.57
7.18
5.02

8.68
8.02
6.08
4.24
4.73
4.42
2.83
5.53
5.87
3.72

9.46
8.64
6.41
4.61
5.48
5.00
3.48
5.89
6.35
4.33

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st

2nd

2012

2013

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

Supply (million short tons)


Production ........................................
Appalachia ....................................
Interior ..........................................
Western ........................................
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ..........
Imports ............................................
Exports ............................................
Metallurgical Coal ..........................
Steam Coal ...................................
Total Primary Supply ...........................

273.6
87.3
41.5
144.8
5.5
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
255.9

263.6
85.7
41.1
136.8
-1.1
3.4
27.0
17.8
9.1
239.0

274.6
81.8
45.0
147.8
1.6
3.6
26.0
16.5
9.5
253.9

282.5
82.1
42.6
157.7
1.8
2.7
27.7
18.0
9.6
259.3

257.1
81.3
39.8
136.0
0.4
2.3
26.2
17.3
8.9
233.7

231.3
73.0
35.2
123.0
0.5
3.1
25.4
17.2
8.1
209.5

245.6
75.7
33.3
136.7
3.8
4.3
24.7
15.8
8.9
229.0

248.2
76.7
34.1
137.4
-0.2
4.0
23.8
16.0
7.9
228.2

229.9
71.1
32.1
126.8
5.5
3.6
23.5
16.2
7.3
215.5

235.8
73.6
33.5
128.7
-1.1
3.6
24.8
17.1
7.7
213.5

243.5
71.4
33.8
138.4
1.6
4.4
24.5
16.5
8.0
225.1

245.9
71.8
33.4
140.6
-2.6
4.0
24.2
16.1
8.1
223.1

1094.3
336.9
170.3
587.1
7.9
13.1
107.3
69.5
37.6
1008.1

982.2
306.7
142.4
533.1
4.5
13.8
100.1
66.2
33.8
900.4

955.1
287.9
132.8
534.4
3.5
15.7
97.0
66.0
31.1
877.2

Secondary Inventory Withdrawals .....


Waste Coal (a) .................................
Total Supply ........................................

9.0
3.3
268.2

0.7
2.9
242.5

20.9
3.4
278.1

-31.1
3.0
231.2

-21.9
3.4
215.2

-13.1
3.2
199.5

11.3
3.2
243.5

-5.5
3.2
225.9

5.8
3.4
224.7

-11.3
3.2
205.4

11.3
3.2
239.6

-5.6
3.2
220.6

-0.6
12.5
1020.0

-29.3
13.0
884.1

0.1
12.9
890.3

Consumption (million short tons)


Coke Plants .....................................
Electric Power Sector (b) ..................
Retail and Other Industry ..................
Residential and Commercial ..........
Other Industrial .............................
Total Consumption .............................

5.2
234.8
14.5
1.0
13.5
254.6

5.4
223.5
12.8
0.6
12.1
241.7

5.4
261.5
12.7
0.5
12.2
279.7

5.4
208.6
13.1
0.6
12.5
227.1

6.5
188.4
13.0
0.7
12.3
207.8

6.5
179.1
13.0
0.6
12.4
198.6

7.4
223.5
12.6
0.8
11.8
243.5

7.2
205.0
13.7
1.2
12.4
225.9

7.5
203.5
13.7
1.2
12.5
224.7

7.4
184.6
13.4
0.8
12.6
205.4

8.1
218.7
12.8
0.8
11.9
239.6

7.8
199.1
13.8
1.2
12.5
220.6

21.4
928.6
53.1
2.8
50.3
1003.1

27.7
796.0
52.3
3.3
49.0
875.8

30.8
805.9
53.7
4.1
49.5
890.3

13.6

0.9

-1.5

4.0

7.4

0.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

17.0

8.2

0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)


Primary Inventories (d) ......................
44.3
Secondary Inventories ......................
174.7
Electric Power Sector ....................
166.7
Retail and General Industry ...........
5.5
Coke Plants ..................................
2.0

45.4
174.1
165.7
5.9
2.0

43.8
153.2
144.4
5.9
2.4

41.9
184.3
175.1
6.0
2.6

41.5
206.2
199.6
4.2
1.8

41.0
219.4
212.0
4.5
2.3

37.2
208.1
200.2
5.1
2.2

37.4
213.6
205.3
5.4
2.3

32.0
207.8
200.5
4.7
2.1

33.0
219.1
211.2
4.9
2.5

31.4
207.8
199.3
5.4
2.5

34.0
213.4
204.7
5.7
2.5

41.9
184.3
175.1
6.0
2.6

37.4
213.6
205.3
5.4
2.3

34.0
213.4
204.7
5.7
2.5

5.22

5.22

5.22

5.22

5.12

5.12

5.12

5.12

4.97

4.97

4.97

4.97

5.22

5.12

4.97

0.257

0.261

0.266

0.264

0.274

0.302

0.313

0.301

0.316

0.326

0.311

0.298

0.262

0.298

0.313

2.34

2.42

2.46

2.37

2.41

2.34

2.32

2.27

2.30

2.25

2.24

2.19

2.40

2.33

2.24

Discrepancy (c)

Coal Market Indicators


Coal Miner Productivity
(Tons per hour) .............................
Total Raw Steel Production
(Million short tons per day) ............
Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per million Btu) .................

- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
2nd
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)
Electricity Generation ....................
11.07
10.94
Electric Power Sector (a) ............
10.66
10.54
Industrial Sector .........................
0.39
0.38
Commercial Sector .....................
0.02
0.02
Net Imports .................................
0.08
0.10
Total Supply ..................................
11.15
11.04
Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ...
0.59
0.95
Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day)
Retail Sales ..................................
10.21
9.74
Residential Sector ......................
4.12
3.49
Commercial Sector .....................
3.45
3.56
Industrial Sector .........................
2.61
2.67
Transportation Sector .................
0.02
0.02
Direct Use (c) ................................
0.35
0.35
Total Consumption .......................
10.56
10.09
Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ...........................................
2.34
2.42
Natural Gas ...............................
5.02
4.92
Residual Fuel Oil ........................
15.88
18.29
Distillate Fuel Oil ........................
20.79
23.37
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ......................
11.19
11.95
Commercial Sector .....................
9.97
10.38
Industrial Sector .........................
6.63
6.86

2012

2013
2011

Year
2012

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2013

12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.13
12.78
0.86

10.33
9.92
0.39
0.02
0.09
10.42
0.74

10.55
10.12
0.41
0.02
0.09
10.64
0.61

10.95
10.53
0.40
0.02
0.08
11.03
0.94

12.39
11.94
0.43
0.02
0.11
12.50
0.78

10.72
10.30
0.40
0.02
0.07
10.80
0.74

11.09
10.66
0.41
0.02
0.08
11.17
0.58

11.03
10.61
0.40
0.02
0.08
11.11
0.90

12.42
11.97
0.43
0.02
0.10
12.53
0.78

10.81
10.39
0.40
0.02
0.07
10.89
0.74

11.25
10.84
0.39
0.02
0.10
11.35
0.79

11.15
10.72
0.41
0.02
0.09
11.24
0.77

11.34
10.91
0.41
0.02
0.08
11.42
0.75

11.55
4.69
4.05
2.79
0.02
0.37
11.92

9.33
3.30
3.39
2.62
0.02
0.35
9.68

9.66
3.67
3.36
2.61
0.02
0.37
10.03

9.73
3.37
3.58
2.75
0.02
0.37
10.10

11.33
4.40
4.04
2.86
0.02
0.39
11.72

9.69
3.51
3.46
2.70
0.02
0.36
10.06

10.22
4.00
3.51
2.69
0.02
0.37
10.59

9.85
3.42
3.62
2.78
0.02
0.36
10.21

11.36
4.36
4.09
2.88
0.02
0.39
11.75

9.78
3.53
3.51
2.72
0.02
0.37
10.15

10.21
3.90
3.61
2.67
0.02
0.36
10.57

10.11
3.74
3.61
2.73
0.02
0.37
10.48

10.30
3.83
3.68
2.77
0.02
0.37
10.68

2.46
4.76
20.10
22.74

2.37
4.13
20.05
22.86

2.41
3.25
20.54
23.43

2.34
2.84
19.97
23.76

2.32
2.96
19.63
23.98

2.27
3.55
19.38
24.49

2.30
3.78
19.18
24.11

2.25
3.70
18.84
24.12

2.24
3.67
18.72
24.13

2.19
4.08
18.62
24.22

2.40
4.71
18.49
22.40

2.33
3.12
19.85
23.96

2.24
3.79
18.83
24.15

12.18
10.76
7.36

11.82
10.07
6.68

11.55
9.96
6.52

12.10
10.26
6.71

12.24
10.65
7.06

11.49
10.08
6.63

11.21
9.90
6.56

11.89
10.25
6.69

12.02
10.61
7.02

11.33
10.02
6.59

11.79
10.32
6.89

11.87
10.26
6.73

11.62
10.21
6.72

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2013
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

144
402
575
332
1,033
372
558
248
438
15
4,118

115
328
455
251
907
296
550
228
350
13
3,493

143
437
608
334
1,192
408
820
334
401
13
4,689

116
318
457
251
803
261
467
229
385
14
3,302

132
364
516
292
890
311
476
236
432
15
3,665

117
326
448
245
856
280
504
235
350
13
3,374

134
416
567
315
1,102
397
736
334
386
13
4,401

126
341
488
270
874
295
478
235
391
14
3,512

136
389
554
321
1,014
359
525
249
435
15
3,999

119
331
455
250
860
288
509
239
355
13
3,419

130
412
560
304
1,086
379
742
343
392
13
4,361

127
344
490
272
879
296
482
237
393
15
3,533

130
371
524
292
984
334
599
260
393
14
3,901

127
362
505
280
931
321
549
260
390
14
3,739

128
369
515
287
960
331
565
267
394
14
3,828

123
435
496
269
784
217
443
238
430
18
3,453

119
421
484
262
856
227
500
249
429
17
3,564

133
482
551
297
942
265
595
287
482
17
4,052

115
406
473
258
773
206
456
243
438
17
3,386

119
419
475
258
762
207
445
232
430
17
3,365

119
425
490
266
849
230
495
259
437
17
3,585

133
481
548
299
940
270
569
293
493
17
4,043

117
413
484
264
791
213
461
248
446
17
3,456

125
443
503
270
796
221
448
244
438
18
3,505

121
428
500
268
853
232
494
260
448
17
3,622

135
488
552
300
953
270
579
296
499
17
4,090

119
422
488
265
806
217
463
252
455
18
3,505

123
436
501
272
839
229
499
254
445
17
3,614

122
435
499
272
836
230
493
258
451
17
3,613

125
445
511
276
853
235
496
263
460
17
3,682

75
199
540
232
370
342
415
204
221
14
2,612

76
192
541
236
394
320
441
219
233
13
2,666

81
196
567
253
401
336
456
239
247
14
2,791

73
187
536
237
373
336
422
215
228
14
2,620

73
185
547
237
372
347
409
206
219
14
2,609

75
187
554
246
402
347
465
227
233
14
2,750

79
191
575
262
404
354
485
247
253
14
2,864

74
181
552
250
377
360
445
220
232
14
2,704

74
186
558
243
379
365
433
215
223
14
2,690

75
189
566
249
403
357
461
234
237
14
2,785

78
194
577
264
409
362
479
251
254
15
2,883

73
184
554
251
382
368
440
224
232
14
2,723

76
194
546
240
384
334
434
219
232
14
2,673

75
186
557
249
389
352
451
225
234
14
2,732

75
188
564
252
393
363
453
231
237
14
2,770

344
1,048
1,613
834
2,191
931
1,417
691
1,090
46
10,206

311
952
1,482
749
2,161
844
1,491
696
1,015
43
9,743

359
1,126
1,728
884
2,539
1,009
1,871
860
1,132
44
11,553

307
921
1,468
746
1,952
803
1,346
687
1,054
45
9,328

326
980
1,540
787
2,028
865
1,330
675
1,083
46
9,660

312
949
1,493
756
2,111
857
1,464
722
1,022
44
9,729

348
1,101
1,692
875
2,450
1,021
1,791
874
1,134
45
11,330

319
948
1,526
784
2,044
868
1,385
704
1,071
46
9,695

336
1,032
1,616
834
2,193
946
1,406
709
1,099
46
10,218

316
960
1,523
767
2,120
877
1,465
733
1,043
44
9,847

345
1,108
1,691
868
2,452
1,011
1,801
890
1,147
45
11,357

321
963
1,534
788
2,071
881
1,385
713
1,082
46
9,784

330
1,012
1,573
803
2,211
897
1,532
734
1,073
45
10,209

326
995
1,563
801
2,159
903
1,493
744
1,078
45
10,106

329
1,016
1,591
814
2,209
929
1,515
762
1,093
45
10,303

- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour)


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2013
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

15.94
15.16
10.98
9.01
10.73
9.60
10.01
9.75
12.18
11.19

16.10
15.98
12.04
10.52
11.43
10.21
10.76
10.83
12.53
11.95

15.94
16.48
12.20
11.16
11.62
10.23
10.79
11.23
13.70
12.18

15.94
15.76
11.93
9.80
11.23
10.51
10.53
10.21
12.56
11.82

16.00
14.97
11.61
9.56
11.15
9.86
10.32
10.10
12.22
11.55

16.21
15.79
12.24
10.73
11.74
10.22
10.73
10.94
12.55
12.10

16.10
16.58
12.36
11.20
11.87
10.08
10.68
11.13
13.49
12.24

15.95
15.47
11.55
9.59
11.13
9.69
9.92
9.96
12.22
11.49

15.73
15.26
11.13
9.15
10.98
9.47
9.57
9.72
12.02
11.21

15.82
16.17
11.92
10.45
11.46
9.96
10.31
10.72
12.49
11.89

15.78
16.74
11.98
10.98
11.56
9.84
10.40
10.92
13.38
12.02

15.60
15.57
11.20
9.40
10.95
9.47
9.84
9.84
12.03
11.33

15.98
15.86
11.78
10.13
11.26
10.11
10.55
10.57
12.74
11.79

16.06
15.73
11.94
10.29
11.49
9.97
10.45
10.59
12.61
11.87

15.73
15.95
11.56
9.98
11.25
9.68
10.07
10.36
12.47
11.62

14.38
13.23
9.30
7.60
9.40
9.54
8.55
8.25
10.89
9.97

14.37
13.76
9.62
8.47
9.51
9.73
8.65
9.01
12.29
10.38

14.49
14.52
9.63
8.96
9.62
9.81
8.90
9.29
13.71
10.76

14.05
13.00
9.34
7.77
9.53
9.79
8.43
8.66
11.46
10.07

14.01
12.56
9.54
7.87
9.52
9.63
8.37
8.41
10.87
9.96

14.36
13.08
9.72
8.46
9.65
9.59
8.35
9.01
11.89
10.26

14.96
14.06
9.75
8.84
9.73
9.71
8.47
9.16
13.35
10.65

14.24
12.97
9.49
7.88
9.53
9.67
8.38
8.37
11.59
10.08

13.97
12.72
9.39
7.86
9.34
9.43
8.52
8.16
10.75
9.90

14.06
13.32
9.72
8.55
9.53
9.46
8.63
8.86
11.70
10.25

14.56
14.20
9.74
8.90
9.62
9.53
8.71
9.06
13.03
10.61

14.10
13.01
9.43
7.88
9.44
9.39
8.54
8.29
11.27
10.02

14.33
13.66
9.48
8.23
9.52
9.72
8.65
8.83
12.14
10.32

14.41
13.20
9.63
8.28
9.61
9.65
8.40
8.77
11.97
10.26

14.19
13.34
9.58
8.32
9.49
9.46
8.61
8.62
11.73
10.21

12.67
8.46
6.45
5.77
6.52
5.81
5.78
5.59
7.34
6.63

12.61
8.21
6.56
6.13
6.76
6.16
6.03
6.08
7.73
6.86

12.99
8.34
6.78
6.64
7.11
6.82
6.63
6.87
8.70
7.36

12.41
7.67
6.54
5.78
6.57
5.94
5.77
5.80
7.82
6.68

12.19
7.55
6.50
5.88
6.48
5.77
5.49
5.64
7.27
6.52

12.70
8.02
6.67
6.23
6.84
5.92
5.34
6.00
7.48
6.71

12.91
8.54
6.82
6.58
7.16
6.14
5.54
6.68
8.39
7.06

12.78
8.20
6.53
5.87
6.63
5.68
5.44
6.00
7.65
6.63

12.95
8.28
6.45
5.86
6.57
5.62
5.58
5.68
7.22
6.56

12.71
8.34
6.49
6.13
6.66
5.85
5.66
5.93
7.49
6.69

12.90
8.58
6.62
6.47
7.00
6.03
5.89
6.51
8.45
7.02

12.74
8.15
6.33
5.78
6.52
5.55
5.69
6.04
7.72
6.59

12.68
8.17
6.59
6.09
6.75
6.18
6.07
6.11
7.92
6.89

12.65
8.08
6.63
6.15
6.79
5.87
5.45
6.10
7.72
6.73

12.83
8.34
6.47
6.07
6.70
5.76
5.71
6.06
7.74
6.72

14.63
13.05
8.94
7.65
9.54
8.19
8.31
8.00
10.68
9.61

14.55
13.39
9.24
8.42
9.81
8.54
8.65
8.68
11.32
9.98

14.70
14.19
9.60
9.13
10.17
8.99
9.18
9.37
12.61
10.52

14.34
12.86
9.12
7.82
9.66
8.42
8.32
8.28
11.06
9.74

14.37
12.50
9.15
7.90
9.67
8.16
8.18
8.15
10.68
9.63

14.62
13.00
9.34
8.47
9.97
8.31
8.21
8.69
11.10
9.89

14.90
14.03
9.63
9.01
10.27
8.62
8.59
9.21
12.28
10.36

14.54
12.93
9.07
7.83
9.68
8.02
7.97
8.16
10.96
9.63

14.43
12.85
8.97
7.77
9.63
7.98
8.01
7.96
10.53
9.53

14.38
13.29
9.18
8.38
9.77
8.16
8.28
8.54
11.00
9.81

14.62
14.13
9.42
8.89
10.05
8.40
8.66
9.06
12.13
10.24

14.35
12.97
8.87
7.73
9.55
7.82
8.09
8.10
10.78
9.54

14.56
13.41
9.24
8.28
9.81
8.55
8.66
8.63
11.44
9.98

14.62
13.15
9.31
8.32
9.92
8.29
8.26
8.60
11.27
9.90

14.45
13.33
9.12
8.21
9.76
8.10
8.28
8.45
11.13
9.80

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables (d) ............................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................

2012
2nd

2013
3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

4.244
2.781
0.015
0.072
0.021
0.015
0.031
0.004
2.258
-0.016

3.795
3.063
0.024
0.073
0.024
0.015
0.032
0.002
2.185
-0.015

4.432
3.953
0.014
0.077
0.027
0.014
0.034
0.003
2.324
-0.020

4.047
2.925
0.013
0.070
0.021
0.017
0.030
0.003
2.156
-0.017

4.698
2.550
0.009
0.072
0.024
0.016
0.030
0.002
2.165
-0.016

3.986
3.195
0.013
0.065
0.023
0.012
0.027
0.002
2.162
-0.015

4.130
3.183
0.017
0.073
0.023
0.015
0.032
0.003
2.231
-0.017

0.654
0.047
0.005
0.377
0.032
0.048
0.020
10.303

0.750
0.047
0.006
0.402
0.034
0.048
0.020
10.662

0.878
0.046
0.018
0.444
0.031
0.050
0.021
10.612

0.696
0.047
0.019
0.323
0.037
0.051
0.021
11.975

0.642
0.047
0.006
0.395
0.036
0.050
0.020
10.390

0.885
0.046
0.005
0.328
0.029
0.047
0.019
10.836

0.793
0.047
0.009
0.371
0.030
0.048
0.020
10.724

0.741
0.047
0.012
0.391
0.034
0.050
0.020
10.912

0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.003
0.024

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.003
0.024

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023

0.050
0.231
0.023
0.005

0.054
0.248
0.025
0.006

0.051
0.228
0.025
0.004

0.052
0.232
0.025
0.008

0.052
0.224
0.023
0.005

0.055
0.245
0.026
0.006

0.052
0.227
0.025
0.005

0.050
0.223
0.022
0.005

0.051
0.235
0.024
0.005

0.053
0.232
0.025
0.006

0.006
0.075
0.002
0.010
0.402
10.952

0.004
0.077
0.003
0.009
0.426
12.388

0.005
0.075
0.003
0.009
0.400
10.725

0.006
0.075
0.002
0.009
0.409
11.093

0.007
0.073
0.002
0.010
0.396
11.030

0.004
0.077
0.003
0.009
0.425
12.424

0.006
0.075
0.003
0.009
0.402
10.814

0.005
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.390
11.249

0.005
0.075
0.002
0.009
0.408
11.155

0.006
0.075
0.002
0.009
0.408
11.342

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

4.879
2.062
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011

4.566
2.377
0.009
0.071
0.025
0.017
0.027
0.002
1.943
-0.016

5.260
3.360
0.010
0.078
0.026
0.016
0.035
0.002
2.288
-0.021

4.091
2.386
0.009
0.057
0.019
0.012
0.023
0.002
2.170
-0.016

3.746
2.782
0.013
0.055
0.019
0.011
0.024
0.002
2.186
-0.010

3.601
3.222
0.014
0.067
0.027
0.012
0.027
0.002
2.111
-0.014

4.463
3.934
0.012
0.072
0.028
0.012
0.030
0.003
2.258
-0.020

4.128
2.838
0.011
0.066
0.020
0.015
0.028
0.003
2.094
-0.017

0.912
0.047
0.002
0.330
0.030
0.044
0.018
10.660

1.059
0.045
0.007
0.384
0.026
0.048
0.020
10.539

0.859
0.044
0.007
0.235
0.032
0.048
0.020
12.220

0.714
0.046
0.004
0.363
0.027
0.048
0.019
9.917

0.789
0.047
0.004
0.411
0.030
0.046
0.019
10.118

0.976
0.047
0.013
0.397
0.027
0.048
0.020
10.528

0.755
0.048
0.014
0.300
0.033
0.049
0.021
11.937

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.013
0.000
0.005
0.003
0.024

0.002
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.002
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.051
0.220
0.021
0.006

0.048
0.220
0.022
0.005

0.057
0.229
0.023
0.005

0.046
0.224
0.023
0.004

0.049
0.234
0.024
0.007

0.005
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.387
11.070

0.006
0.071
0.002
0.009
0.383
10.944

0.004
0.074
0.002
0.009
0.403
12.647

0.005
0.073
0.002
0.009
0.386
10.326

0.006
0.075
0.002
0.009
0.406
10.546

1st

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7e. U.S. Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation by Sector


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Petroleum Coke (mmst/d) ......
Other Petroleum (mmb/d) ......
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Total All Sectors
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............

2nd

2012

2013

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

2.60
15.83
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.45
19.02
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.00

2.83
26.82
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.26
17.99
0.10
0.03
0.02
0.05
0.00

2.06
20.76
0.10
0.03
0.02
0.05
0.00

1.96
24.73
0.12
0.04
0.02
0.05
0.00

2.42
30.20
0.13
0.05
0.02
0.06
0.00

2.22
20.90
0.12
0.03
0.03
0.05
0.01

2.25
20.17
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.02
22.96
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.00

2.37
29.69
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.16
20.97
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.53
19.94
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.00

2.17
24.15
0.12
0.04
0.02
0.05
0.00

2.20
23.47
0.13
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.02
1.52
0.01

0.02
1.54
0.01

0.03
1.59
0.01

0.02
1.54
0.00

0.02
1.59
0.01

0.02
1.60
0.01

0.02
1.71
0.01

0.02
1.56
0.00

0.02
1.54
0.01

0.02
1.54
0.01

0.02
1.69
0.01

0.02
1.55
0.01

0.02
1.55
0.01

0.02
1.61
0.01

0.02
1.58
0.01

2.62
17.45
0.16

2.47
20.66
0.13

2.86
28.51
0.15

2.28
19.64
0.11

2.08
22.45
0.11

1.98
26.42
0.13

2.44
32.02
0.14

2.24
22.56
0.12

2.27
21.80
0.14

2.04
24.60
0.14

2.39
31.48
0.15

2.18
22.62
0.13

2.56
21.59
0.14

2.19
25.87
0.12

2.22
25.15
0.14

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector


Coal (mmst) ..............................
166.7
165.7
144.4
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
15.4
16.4
15.7
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
16.5
16.8
16.7
Petroleum Coke (mmb) .............
2.4
2.5
1.9

175.1
15.5
17.1
2.3

199.6
16.4
17.0
1.6

212.0
17.5
17.0
1.8

200.2
16.3
17.1
2.0

205.3
15.4
17.2
2.0

200.5
14.4
16.7
2.2

211.2
15.6
16.6
2.3

199.3
14.7
16.7
2.4

204.7
14.1
16.9
2.3

175.1
15.5
17.1
2.3

205.3
15.4
17.2
2.0

204.7
14.1
16.9
2.3

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Supply and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
Supply
Hydroelectric Power (a) ...............
Wood Biomass (b) ........................
Waste Biomass (c) .......................
Wind .............................................
Geothermal .................................
Solar .............................................
Ethanol (d) .....................................
Biodiesel (d) ..................................
Total ..........................................
Consumption
Electric Power Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Wood Biomass (b) .....................
Waste Biomass (c) ....................
Wind ..........................................
Geothermal ..............................
Solar ..........................................
Subtotal ..................................
Industrial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Wood Biomass (b) .....................
Waste Biomass (c) ....................
Geothermal ..............................
Subtotal ..................................
Commercial Sector
Wood Biomass (b) .....................
Waste Biomass (c) ....................
Geothermal ..............................
Subtotal ..................................
Residential Sector
Wood Biomass (b) .....................
Geothermal ..............................
Solar ..........................................
Subtotal ..................................
Transportation Sector
Ethanol (d) .....................................
Biodiesel (d) ..................................
Total Consumption ........................

2nd

2012
3rd

2013

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

Year
2012

2013

0.806
0.495
0.116
0.290
0.057
0.037
0.292
0.014
2.107

0.946
0.486
0.118
0.341
0.056
0.041
0.290
0.024
2.302

0.775
0.504
0.121
0.211
0.056
0.042
0.293
0.034
2.036

0.645
0.502
0.123
0.326
0.057
0.039
0.307
0.038
2.036

0.706
0.494
0.116
0.365
0.057
0.039
0.296
0.022
2.105

0.873
0.479
0.119
0.352
0.057
0.047
0.290
0.033
2.250

0.682
0.501
0.129
0.269
0.059
0.048
0.295
0.033
2.016

0.592
0.504
0.125
0.338
0.059
0.040
0.296
0.034
1.987

0.664
0.493
0.119
0.353
0.058
0.041
0.291
0.034
2.052

0.786
0.483
0.123
0.394
0.057
0.052
0.294
0.035
2.223

0.629
0.509
0.132
0.290
0.059
0.052
0.297
0.035
2.003

0.582
0.514
0.127
0.355
0.059
0.041
0.296
0.035
2.008

3.171
1.987
0.477
1.168
0.226
0.158
1.183
0.110
8.481

2.853
1.977
0.488
1.325
0.232
0.173
1.178
0.122
8.358

2.660
2.000
0.500
1.392
0.232
0.185
1.178
0.139
8.286

0.801
0.046
0.064
0.290
0.042
0.002
1.245

0.941
0.040
0.067
0.341
0.040
0.006
1.435

0.771
0.047
0.069
0.211
0.040
0.006
1.145

0.641
0.042
0.069
0.326
0.041
0.003
1.122

0.701
0.046
0.065
0.365
0.042
0.004
1.224

0.867
0.041
0.068
0.352
0.041
0.011
1.380

0.678
0.051
0.071
0.269
0.043
0.013
1.124

0.587
0.049
0.069
0.338
0.043
0.004
1.090

0.658
0.051
0.068
0.353
0.042
0.005
1.178

0.779
0.047
0.071
0.394
0.041
0.016
1.348

0.625
0.056
0.073
0.290
0.043
0.017
1.105

0.576
0.055
0.071
0.355
0.043
0.005
1.106

3.154
0.175
0.269
1.168
0.163
0.018
4.947

2.833
0.187
0.272
1.325
0.168
0.032
4.818

2.640
0.210
0.284
1.392
0.168
0.044
4.737

0.005
0.325
0.043
0.001
0.378

0.005
0.322
0.042
0.001
0.375

0.003
0.331
0.043
0.001
0.383

0.005
0.334
0.044
0.001
0.388

0.005
0.323
0.042
0.001
0.375

0.006
0.311
0.044
0.001
0.366

0.004
0.322
0.049
0.001
0.380

0.005
0.326
0.047
0.001
0.384

0.005
0.314
0.041
0.001
0.367

0.006
0.310
0.044
0.001
0.365

0.004
0.325
0.049
0.001
0.383

0.005
0.331
0.047
0.001
0.389

0.018
1.311
0.172
0.004
1.524

0.020
1.283
0.182
0.004
1.506

0.020
1.280
0.181
0.004
1.503

0.017
0.009
0.005
0.032

0.018
0.008
0.005
0.032

0.018
0.009
0.005
0.033

0.018
0.010
0.005
0.034

0.017
0.008
0.005
0.031

0.018
0.008
0.005
0.033

0.019
0.009
0.005
0.034

0.020
0.009
0.005
0.035

0.019
0.009
0.005
0.034

0.018
0.008
0.005
0.033

0.019
0.009
0.005
0.035

0.020
0.009
0.005
0.035

0.071
0.036
0.020
0.131

0.074
0.035
0.020
0.133

0.077
0.035
0.020
0.137

0.106
0.010
0.035
0.150

0.107
0.010
0.035
0.152

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.109
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.108
0.010
0.035
0.154

0.430
0.040
0.140
0.610

0.434
0.040
0.142
0.615

0.433
0.040
0.142
0.615

0.263
0.013

0.277
0.026

0.276
0.035

0.275
0.038

0.263
0.019

0.274
0.032

0.277
0.033

0.284
0.033

0.272
0.033

0.285
0.035

0.284
0.036

0.288
0.035

1.091
0.113

1.099
0.117

1.129
0.139

2.077

2.292

2.020

2.004

2.047

2.234

1.997

1.975

2.033

2.214

1.991

2.000

8.392

8.252

8.237

- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Wood and wood-derived fuels.
(c) Municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
(d) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011

2012

2013
2011

Year
2012

2013

14,102

13,315

13,601

13,932

10,517

10,590

10,193

10,297

10,497

2,012

2,070

2,132

1,761

1,889

2,043

15.17

10.30

7.78

8.73

25.44

22.24

10.49

123.6

123.7

123.7

123.8

123.9

123.5

123.6

123.9

133.7

134.3

134.9

135.4

135.9

136.5

131.4

133.5

135.7

91.0

91.5

92.0

92.5

92.9

93.3

93.7

89.4

91.3

93.1

96.3
95.1
102.0
86.1

97.7
96.0
102.2
86.5

98.6
97.0
102.5
86.9

99.1
97.6
102.8
87.1

99.7
98.3
103.2
87.2

100.4
99.2
103.7
87.5

101.3
100.3
104.3
88.1

102.2
101.4
104.9
88.7

93.7
91.4
100.4
86.0

97.9
96.4
102.4
86.6

100.9
99.8
104.0
87.9

86.7
102.0
70.9
100.4
80.8
94.3
90.8

88.0
102.7
71.7
105.1
85.6
97.9
93.0

88.3
103.3
72.0
106.6
85.7
99.4
93.6

88.7
103.5
72.4
107.7
86.1
99.9
94.1

88.8
103.5
72.8
107.5
85.9
99.6
94.1

88.9
103.8
73.9
107.8
85.8
99.4
94.2

89.3
104.0
75.7
108.8
85.9
99.6
94.7

90.0
104.2
78.0
110.6
86.7
100.3
95.7

90.7
104.3
80.4
112.2
87.7
100.8
96.6

86.7
98.5
70.9
96.8
82.3
93.0
89.8

88.5
103.3
72.3
106.7
85.8
99.2
93.7

89.7
104.1
77.0
109.8
86.5
100.0
95.3

2.26

2.27

2.29

2.30

2.31

2.32

2.33

2.33

2.34

2.36

2.25

2.30

2.34

2.02

2.02

2.03

2.03

2.02

2.04

2.05

2.06

2.05

2.06

2.08

2.01

2.04

2.06

2.74

3.22

3.07

2.94

3.09

3.23

3.21

3.15

3.13

3.16

3.15

3.07

2.99

3.17

3.13

112.4

113.1

113.8

114.1

114.5

114.8

115.3

115.7

116.1

116.3

116.8

117.3

113.3

115.1

116.6

7,585

8,324

8,251

7,950

7,608

8,442

8,402

8,041

7,750

8,500

8,464

8,101

8,029

8,124

8,205

519

549

554

527

509

529

551

551

535

536

555

554

537

535

545

307

339

344

320

308

328

348

344

324

336

356

352

328

332

342

298.2

308.1

307.8

302.0

299.2

298.6

306.9

323.2

327.5

312.7

317.3

332.3

304.0

307.0

322.4

0.257

0.261

0.266

0.264

0.274

0.302

0.313

0.301

0.316

0.326

0.311

0.298

0.262

0.298

0.313

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Emissions (million metric tons)


Petroleum ......................................................
571
575
Natural Gas ...................................................
403
273
Coal ...............................................................
483
459
Total Fossil Fuels ..........................................
1,456
1,307

578
287
530
1,395

575
333
431
1,339

556
393
395
1,343

574
299
382
1,254

583
306
466
1,355

581
369
433
1,383

564
419
432
1,414

578
292
396
1,266

583
305
459
1,347

581
368
424
1,373

2,299
1,296
1,902
5,497

2,293
1,367
1,676
5,336

2,306
1,383
1,711
5,400

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .......

13,228

13,272

13,332

13,429

13,498

13,567

13,634

13,704

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 Dollars - SAAR) .......

10,183

10,170

10,189

10,232

10,221

10,268

10,323

1,699

1,737

1,790

1,818

1,853

1,878

33.28

24.16

11.34

32.98

23.93

123.5

123.5

123.5

123.5

130.7

131.2

131.5

88.7

89.2

1st

2nd

3rd

13,779

13,872

13,976

10,375

10,416

10,466

1,898

1,928

1,957

25.68

20.00

19.34

123.5

123.6

123.6

132.0

132.7

133.2

89.5

90.0

90.5

92.9
90.6
100.3
86.0

94.2
91.7
100.4
85.0

95.2
92.9
101.3
85.3

89.9

86.2
96.6
71.3
95.3
80.7
91.4
88.7

86.6
100.8
72.3
95.9
80.7
92.8
89.8

2.22

2.25

1.98

4th

Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product

Real Fixed Investment


(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Business Inventory Change
(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Housing Stock
(millions) ......................................................
Non-Farm Employment
(millions) .....................................................
Commercial Employment
(millions) .....................................................

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2007=100)


Total Industrial Production ............................
92.6
Manufacturing ................................................
90.4
Food .............................................................
99.5
Paper ............................................................
87.5
Chemicals .....................................................
87.2
Petroleum ......................................................
94.7
Stone, Clay, Glass .......................................
69.1
Primary Metals ..............................................
95.7
Resins and Synthetic Products .....................
87.1
Agricultural Chemicals ..................................
93.6
Natural Gas-weighted (a) .............................
Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) .............................
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2005=100) .......................................
Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) .......................................
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .........
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) ..........
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) ..............................
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) .........................

- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
730
733
732
736
Middle Atlantic .............
2,011
2,022
2,027
2,038
E. N. Central ...............
1,835
1,841
1,841
1,850
W. N. Central ..............
852
854
854
860
S. Atlantic ....................
2,422
2,435
2,438
2,458
E. S. Central ................
617
619
620
624
W. S. Central ..............
1,516
1,516
1,552
1,565
Mountain .....................
863
864
872
878
Pacific .........................
2,319
2,323
2,331
2,354
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2007=100)
New England ...............
92.1
91.9
92.9
93.6
Middle Atlantic .............
90.0
89.9
90.4
91.1
E. N. Central ...............
89.5
89.9
91.2
92.5
W. N. Central ..............
93.0
93.3
94.8
96.1
S. Atlantic ....................
87.3
87.2
88.2
89.3
E. S. Central ................
86.2
86.1
87.0
88.5
W. S. Central ..............
93.6
94.0
95.3
96.8
Mountain .....................
90.0
90.2
91.7
92.9
Pacific .........................
91.8
91.9
93.1
94.0
Real Personal Income (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
650
653
654
657
Middle Atlantic .............
1,748
1,744
1,747
1,755
E. N. Central ...............
1,606
1,603
1,606
1,610
W. N. Central ..............
748
750
751
754
S. Atlantic ....................
2,129
2,131
2,133
2,147
E. S. Central ................
563
564
564
566
W. S. Central ..............
1,251
1,256
1,261
1,270
Mountain .....................
740
742
743
747
Pacific .........................
1,949
1,946
1,952
1,965
Households (Thousands)
New England ...............
5,657
5,661
5,665
5,668
Middle Atlantic .............
15,557
15,575
15,591
15,606
E. N. Central ...............
18,024
18,028
18,030
18,040
W. N. Central ..............
8,133
8,146
8,159
8,175
S. Atlantic ....................
23,215
23,267
23,320
23,380
E. S. Central ................
7,215
7,226
7,238
7,250
W. S. Central ..............
13,338
13,377
13,419
13,466
Mountain .....................
8,290
8,307
8,326
8,351
Pacific .........................
17,503
17,539
17,576
17,618
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ...............
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
Middle Atlantic .............
18.1
18.2
18.2
18.3
E. N. Central ...............
20.2
20.2
20.2
20.3
W. N. Central ..............
9.8
9.9
9.9
9.9
S. Atlantic ....................
24.9
25.0
25.0
25.1
E. S. Central ................
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
W. S. Central ..............
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
Mountain .....................
9.0
9.1
9.1
9.2
Pacific .........................
19.3
19.4
19.4
19.5

2012

2013
2011

Year
2012

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

740
2,047
1,860
865
2,470
628
1,573
883
2,367

743
2,056
1,869
870
2,480
631
1,583
888
2,382

746
2,064
1,877
874
2,492
634
1,591
893
2,396

750
2,073
1,885
878
2,506
638
1,600
898
2,411

754
2,084
1,894
883
2,521
642
1,607
904
2,424

759
2,096
1,906
888
2,540
646
1,621
910
2,439

764
2,109
1,919
895
2,559
651
1,636
917
2,458

769
2,126
1,933
902
2,583
656
1,655
926
2,482

733
2,024
1,842
855
2,438
620
1,537
869
2,332

745
2,060
1,873
872
2,487
633
1,587
890
2,389

762
2,104
1,913
892
2,551
649
1,630
914
2,451

95.4
93.2
95.1
98.6
91.5
90.8
99.1
95.1
95.9

96.1
94.0
96.2
99.6
92.2
91.8
100.1
96.1
96.7

96.8
94.8
97.3
100.6
93.1
93.0
101.1
97.2
97.6

97.3
95.2
98.0
101.2
93.6
93.8
101.7
97.8
98.3

97.9
95.7
98.7
101.8
94.2
94.7
102.5
98.8
99.1

98.7
96.4
99.8
102.7
94.9
95.7
103.3
99.9
100.0

99.6
97.3
100.9
103.8
95.8
97.1
104.5
101.0
101.0

100.5
98.3
102.2
105.0
96.8
98.5
105.6
102.3
102.1

92.6
90.3
90.8
94.3
88.0
86.9
94.9
91.2
92.7

96.4
94.3
96.7
100.0
92.6
92.4
100.5
96.6
97.1

99.2
96.9
100.4
103.3
95.4
96.5
104.0
100.5
100.6

656
1,756
1,612
754
2,151
566
1,275
748
1,968

660
1,768
1,620
758
2,164
569
1,284
753
1,980

665
1,783
1,631
764
2,182
573
1,296
759
1,997

670
1,797
1,642
769
2,200
577
1,307
766
2,011

674
1,806
1,651
773
2,217
582
1,317
772
2,026

679
1,819
1,663
780
2,235
586
1,330
779
2,044

682
1,827
1,670
784
2,247
589
1,339
783
2,056

686
1,838
1,678
788
2,262
592
1,350
789
2,070

654
1,748
1,606
751
2,135
564
1,260
743
1,953

663
1,776
1,626
761
2,174
571
1,290
756
1,989

681
1,822
1,666
781
2,240
587
1,334
781
2,049

5,676
15,627
18,065
8,198
23,456
7,266
13,524
8,386
17,674

5,685
15,650
18,095
8,221
23,539
7,283
13,583
8,423
17,742

5,695
15,675
18,128
8,244
23,629
7,303
13,645
8,461
17,809

5,707
15,701
18,165
8,270
23,729
7,325
13,713
8,503
17,880

5,720
15,729
18,202
8,294
23,831
7,348
13,782
8,546
17,955

5,732
15,756
18,240
8,320
23,935
7,371
13,851
8,589
18,031

5,745
15,780
18,273
8,343
24,038
7,394
13,918
8,629
18,100

5,758
15,807
18,308
8,368
24,145
7,417
13,986
8,671
18,174

5,668
15,606
18,040
8,175
23,380
7,250
13,466
8,351
17,618

5,707
15,701
18,165
8,270
23,729
7,325
13,713
8,503
17,880

5,758
15,807
18,308
8,368
24,145
7,417
13,986
8,671
18,174

6.8
18.4
20.4
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6

6.9
18.4
20.5
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.5
9.2
19.7

6.9
18.5
20.6
10.0
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.8

6.9
18.6
20.7
10.1
25.6
7.6
15.6
9.3
19.8

6.9
18.7
20.7
10.1
25.7
7.6
15.6
9.4
19.9

6.9
18.7
20.8
10.1
25.8
7.6
15.7
9.4
20.0

7.0
18.8
20.9
10.2
25.9
7.7
15.8
9.5
20.1

7.0
18.9
20.9
10.2
26.0
7.7
15.9
9.5
20.2

6.8
18.2
20.2
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4

6.9
18.5
20.5
10.0
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7

7.0
18.8
20.8
10.2
25.9
7.7
15.8
9.5
20.1

- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

2013

Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data


U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2012
2011
1st

2nd

Heating Degree-days
New England ................
3,314
846
Middle Atlantic ..............
3,023
609
E. N. Central .................
3,306
755
W. N. Central ................
3,517
769
South Atlantic ...............
1,501
179
E. S. Central .................
1,866
247
W. S. Central ................
1,273
101
Mountain .......................
2,338
773
Pacific ...........................
1,481
675
U.S. Average ............
2,285
517
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
111
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
216
E. N. Central .................
0
227
W. N. Central ................
1
294
South Atlantic ...............
99
789
E. S. Central .................
9
653
W. S. Central ................
113
1,091
Mountain .......................
11
316
Pacific ...........................
2
68
U.S. Average ............
33
432
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

Year

2013
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2011

2012

2013

105
67
182
200
18
44
9
71
52
77

1,870
1,715
1,943
2,155
900
1,230
839
1,938
1,171
1,441

2,659
2,360
2,468
2,525
1,120
1,321
888
2,099
1,416
1,782

809
677
733
624
222
251
63
608
537
484

179
120
150
178
24
30
8
164
107
97

2,253
2,049
2,296
2,477
1,054
1,372
890
1,932
1,144
1,625

3,166
2,910
3,179
3,288
1,511
1,883
1,258
2,310
1,419
2,215

920
735
768
711
240
285
105
724
556
530

192
127
159
181
23
32
7
171
98
99

2,251
2,044
2,298
2,495
1,039
1,359
878
1,939
1,117
1,617

6,135
5,414
6,186
6,641
2,598
3,387
2,222
5,120
3,379
4,320

5,900
5,206
5,647
5,804
2,420
2,974
1,849
4,803
3,204
3,988

6,529
5,816
6,404
6,675
2,813
3,558
2,248
5,144
3,191
4,462

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

496
670
668
810
1,262
1,134
1,767
971
606
942

1
1
2
13
182
21
201
70
41
70

0
0
17
13
154
52
146
9
0
53

74
151
204
279
617
499
882
417
149
371

357
524
510
657
1,101
1,026
1,445
870
512
784

0
5
8
13
210
64
178
70
41
78

0
0
1
3
113
31
81
15
7
35

70
144
206
271
577
472
794
380
150
349

362
515
519
659
1,104
1,014
1,442
857
538
787

1
5
8
15
223
66
190
78
55
83

608
887
897
1,118
2,332
1,817
3,172
1,368
717
1,477

431
680
739
962
2,082
1,641
2,651
1,366
702
1,286

433
664
734
948
2,018
1,582
2,506
1,330
750
1,255

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

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