California climate change

by Jeremy Zwinger and Kent Mckenzie

A marketing and research perspective concerning the wet weather in California and its impact on rice production

From a rice marketing perspective

ix months ago, we planned to write an article about the dry ideal conditions will return to help boost the crops to normal yields weather in northern California and its impact on rice crops. To in the months ahead. our surprise, however, by the time we got to writing this story, From a marketing perspective, these conditions have put the drought that had beleaguered the state for almost 4 years had California in a tight spot as it is the only origin of japonica rice left ended with the recent exit of El Nio. The arrival of La Nia phase standing in the export market. Australia, a source of japonica rice has brought more rains (above the average rainfall in the rice valley), before the drought wiped out much of its crop, estimates that it helping replenish water reservoirs. will produce approximately 200 One could say that the thousand tons in 2010-11, but, with wet weather was a blessing domestic usage pegged at around especially after suffering from 400 thousand tons, Australia cannot drought since 2006. But, the be expected to return to exports any timing of the rains has added a time soon. Egypt is another origin new twist to the issues faced by of the medium grain, but it remains rice farmers in California. They reluctant to export. It will likely keep must now deal with the chaotic a lid on commercial exports, as it is or unpredictable nature of these 100 thousand tons less in exports on rains. lower production. An export ban has Rains in California came reportedly been placed for 2010-11. during the land preparation Lastly, China remains focused on Rain clouds cluster over a rice valley period, thus delaying operations. its internal needs, especially when on 3 June 2010, which is unusual in Crops were planted late as a result. its northern regionknown for california during this time of the year. Planting fell about 23 weeks producing these round grainsis the rice trader behind the normal schedule, suffering from drought conditions. with a substantial percentage of seeds sown after 1 June, which is Interestingly enough, the southern U.S. planting region for the generally accepted deadline for planting. This delay in planting medium-grain rice (Arkansas, Louisiana, etc.) is said to be expecting caused more problems in the application of chemicals and nitrogen, a lower output (as much as 3040%) in the coming year. California's as farmers rushed in planting the crops to catch up with the normal water sale of about 5% of the industrys rice fields (23,000 acres or schedule. 9,308 hectares) has also subsequently decreased the harvestable area The weather has remained wet, with sporadic rains mixed for 2010-11 crop production. The wet weather faced in California, along with cold spells. Consequently, there has not been enough heat with the water sale, can possibly cause a 15% shortfall in production, to produce a good crop.To note, heavy rains in early June are an making things difficult for regular importers of the grain. unusual occurrence. Because of such weather conditions, yields are expected to fall by 510% in the coming year. Many still hope that Mr. Zwinger is the president and CEO of The Rice Trader Inc.

From a research perspective

nasmuch as the recent rains in California have caused anxieties among producers, researchers, on the other hand, are more upbeat about the situation. Breeders, most especially, often use these occasions to engage in experiments that could help in developing new varieties that can weather such changes in the climate in the future. Naturally, scientists often seek different suboptimum production environments that allow them to identify superior or inferior lines to develop lines that will provide more stable yields over years of production. These may include making special nurseries to test for cold tolerance, disease, salinity, drought or flooding, and other conditions possible in different regions or locations. They do this at a considerable expense of time, effort, and cost. When a bad year is encountered in a specific region (such as the late cold spring this year in California)or even in a particular nursery, they take advantage of the screening treatment that the weather provides and make a special effortto collect data such as seedling

vigor, stand establishment, early growth, cold response,cold-induced sterility, and delay in maturity.This practice can help identify or confirm a superior or inferior variety, line, or production practice. The poor conditions for growing rice are not good for producers and can jeopardize the yield potential in nursery tests. Nevertheless, breeders do take advantage of this opportunity for selection. Long-time Rice Experiment Station breeder Carl Johnson used to say, If you get lemons, make lemonade. He was always interested in how materials performed in a rough environment, which frequently refers to our nurseries in cold locations. This spring is going to test how some of our newer releases will perform, and we will measure their production stability under nonoptimum spring conditions. Dr. McKenzie is a plant breeder and director of the California Rice Experiment Station. 11

Rice Today July-September 2010