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total handset shipments during the year 2006-07. Rest of the market has been covered by vendors like Sony Ericsson, Motorola, and LG & Samsung. At present 1,000,000 Mobile pieces are imported on average monthly basis (present average market size of the market) which covers all mobile distributors share and is inclusive of purchases made through letter of credits and direct off shore purchases (gray market). Present monthly market estimates of sales for the brand and the quantity are; Market Size- Mobile Imports Nokia LG Samsung Sony Ericsson Motorola China Copied Others (I-Mate, HTC, Bird, Benq etc) Average Total Market Imports per month Quantity in Piece 580,000 120,000 80,000 70,000 15,000 80,000 55,000 1,000,000
Previously a large portion of handsets were brought in the Pakistan market via smuggling, individual carriers of new/used furbished sets etc., from European and Middle Eastern markets, however, recently the import of mobile phones through transparent channels via authorized dealers/distributors has increased because of gradual decrease in the duty structure. This fact coupled with aggressive marketing by local dealers /distributors, quality after sales services, insurance on handset etc. reduced significantly the smuggling /gray market purchases. A snap shot of Mobile Phone Distributors in Pakistan is as follows; Handsets Distributor GALAXY Market Share 35% Agreement with Mobile Manufacturers Nokia Sony Ericsson Motorola I-Mate Sony Ericsson Samsung HTC , O2 Nokia LG N/A Deals in other Brands Samsung LG Nokia, ,Motorola,
25%
Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Motorola None Includes small handset distributors which deal in all branded and non branded products. Mostly procured through gray market. Major revenue comes from Chinese brands.
10%
10% 35%
20% 25%
3.4
Among all the new entrants, Telenor has shown its strength by capturing a good market and has left behind its closest competitor Warid within one months time to claim the second position. While Paktel, now owned by China Mobile Pakistan, is still been unable to add fuel to the current mobile operators battle. Pakistan Mobile Industry is witnessing increasing net addition to total subscriber base for last five years. In 2007, the net addition was more than 27 million increasing average to 2.3 million per month. Following table and chart shows the growing trend of Mobile subscribers.
Years 2002-03 2002-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Total Net Increase in Mobile Subscribers 705,864 2,618,508 7,748,295 21,735,354 27,846,131 60,654,152
2002-03
1.1
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
2.4
3.5
Following Chart shows the Cellular Mobile Subscribers projections & its impact on Mobile density.
Merrill Lynch raised its forecast for 2007, stated global handset unit growth forecast from 10% to 13% with units up from 1,067 million to 1,106 million. Looking further ahead, 2008 unit growth is up from 4% to 8% with units up to 1196 million. They are also increasing unit estimates by 39 million in 2007, 86 million in 2008 and 111 million in 2009.The majority of the increase in 2007 (37mn) is coming from handsets purchased by new subscribers but in later years 2008-10 the increase in their forecasts is dominated by replacement units since the mobile subscriber base is now higher. Higher mobile subscriber penetration in their group of 8 emerging countries (E-8) that include India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Egypt are the principal drivers behind the higher handset shipment numbers. Merrill Lynch expects that net additions in the E-8 will peak in 2007 at 241 million subscribers and the E-8 will account for 40% of global subscribers in 2010 - 1.6 billion of 3.9billion global subscriber base.