Sie sind auf Seite 1von 58

Indian Mobile Industry

Indian Mobile Industry


)c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{
)c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{
2
INTRODUCTION TO THE WORLDS FASTEST GOWING TELECOM MARKET
3
THE WORLDS SECOND LARGEST MARKET
Area 3,287,263 Square kilometers
Population (July 2005) 1.08 Billion
22 National Recognized Languages
Literacy Rate (2005) 65%
Average Annual Growth Rate
Population 1.4%
Labour Force 2.5%
GDP Growth- 6.7%
Trade (2004)
Total Exports (FOB) USD 76 Billion
Total Imports (CIF) USD 97 Billion
Forex Reserves (including gold) =USD 155 Billion
Source : The World Bank Group
4
.& ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING ONES
One of the fastest growing economies in Asia. One of the fastest growing economies in Asia.
Annual GDP growth rate of ~8% over next 5 Annual GDP growth rate of ~8% over next 5- -10 years 10 years
Set to emerge as 3rd largest economy in the world by 2020 Set to emerge as 3rd largest economy in the world by 2020
Major global hub for IT & IT enabled services Major global hub for IT & IT enabled services
Mobile telephony transforming people Mobile telephony transforming people s lives s lives
5
Background of Mobile Revolution in Indian Telecom Background of Mobile Revolution in Indian Telecom
6
Reforms (liberalization) started in telecom
Stutus in 1994
0,% teIe density - fur beIow worId uveruge of 10% und other neighbouring
countries,
TotuI phones: mn with u wuiting Iist of Z, mn,
eIow Z% viIIuges {1,7 Iukhs} covered,
NutionuI TeIecom PoIicy 1994 unnounced,
TeIecom u nutionuI priority for increused economic deveIopment,
PIun turgets revised to huve teIephone on demund und uII viIIuges covered,
AII services uvuiIubIe internutionuIIy to be uvuiIubIe in Indiu by 199,
VuIue-udded services opened in 199Z {ceIIuIur mobiIe rudio puging emuiI
etc,}
Resource gup of INR Z30000 miIIion to meet the revised turgets necessituted
privute sector purticipution,
Tendering process for seIection of privute pIuyers for usic und CeIIuIur
services,
7
!ntroduction of Privatization
Licenses oworded (in I99b-97) offer fendering ond bidding process:
- 8 0SM Iicenses in 4 mefros (no bidding - beoufy porode).
- 34 0SM Iicenses in I8 sfofe circIes
- o 8osic Service Licenses in o sfofe circIes
PesuIfs nof sofisfocfory due fo:
- AcfuoI revenue reoIi;ofions for shorf of projecfions Ieoding fo
operofors being unobIe fo orronge finonce for fheir projecfs ond
compIefe roIIoufs.
0overnmenf oppreciofes fhe concern of fhe operofors ond oIIows for mid-course
correcfions.
8
2001: the turning point
Policy announced for additional licenses in Basic and Mobile Services (Jan
2001).
Entry fee:
Basic Services: US$ 0.2mn US$ 25.5mn (+ Bank Guarantees = 4 times
entry fee for rollout obligations)
GSM Mobile Services (4th Operator bid): US$ 0.2mn US$ 45mn
License fee (revenue share) reduced from provisional 15% to 12%, 10% &
8%.
Limited Mobility allowed to Basic Services (CDMA spectrum allotted to
BSOs).
Rollout Obligations to cover Urban / Semi-Urban / Rural areas in equal
proportion.
New licenses awarded in Jul - Sep 2001 : Basic (25), GSM Mobile (17).
9
Tariff 8 !nterconnection Regulations
Movemenf fowords cosf-bosed foriff.
Toriffs cIoseIy reguIofed by TPAI befween I999-Z00Z.
Inferconnecfion Usoge Chorges esfobIished on fhe principIes of "work
done" - ferminofion chorges infroduced.
CoIIing Porfy Poys (CPP) for mobiIe foriffs - free incoming coIIs ushered
in.
Access Deficif Chorges (ADC) for cosf-minus fixed Iine services.
Forbeoronce oIIowed recenfIy on oII foriffs (excepf ruroI fixed Iine).
10
MOBILE MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO TELE DENSITY
Cellular constitutes ~61% of current national tele density has played an important role in
taking overall tele density from 0.8 in 1994 to 12.3 in Feb06.
Fixed 4.8 %
Mobile 7.5 %
Total 12.3%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Feb'06
11
GSM DRIVING MOBILE GROWTH
1
2
4
6
41
65
26
13
2
8
11
19
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb'06
GSM CDMA
S
u
b
s
c
r
i
b
e
r
s

i
n

M
i
l
l
i
o
n
GSM driving growth of Indian market with nearly 80% market share & about 75% of new
additions
Year Ended March
12
IN SYNC WITH WORLDWIDE TRENDS
Worldwide GSM constitutes 75% of the subscriber base and 80% of the
monthly additions.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Jan'06
GSM CDMA
S
u
b
s
c
r
i
b
e
r
s

i
n

M
i
l
l
i
o
n
Year Ended December
13
INDIAN GROWTH FUELLED BY INCREASED COVERAGE
249
421
918
1116
1575
1743
3076
5048
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Dec'98 Jun'99 Nov'00 Apr'01 Sep'02 Sep'03 Dec'04 Dec'05
Number of Cities & Towns
Estimated that service providers will cover 5,000 towns by mid 2006
Ubiquitous coverage holds the key to future growth of mobile industry
14
AND CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING AFFORDABILITY
Effective Tariffs 400 Minute Basket
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
D
e
c
-
0
0
M
a
r
-
0
1
J
u
n
-
0
1
S
e
p
-
0
1
D
e
c
-
0
1
M
a
r
-
0
2
J
u
n
-
0
2
S
e
p
-
0
2
D
e
c
-
0
2
M
a
r
-
0
3
J
u
n
-
0
3
S
e
p
-
0
3
D
e
c
-
0
3
M
a
r
-
0
4
J
u
n
-
0
4
D
e
c
-
0
4
U
S
D

p
e
r

m
i
n
u
t
e
In last 3 years alone, effective local call cellular tariffs have plummeted by 80% from
USD 0.06 / minute in December 2000 to USD 0.01 / minute in December 2004.
During 2005, tariffs have declined further by ~ 37%
Source:TRAI Quarterly Performance Indicators, March 2005
15
INDIAN MOBILE INDUSTRY CURRENT STATUS 2006
133 state-of-the art Networks (GSM + CDMA) on Air: 91 on GSM
Total Investments ~ USD 15 billion
Nearly 85 million mobile subscribers (GSM + CDMA) end February 2006
with GSM accounting for ~80% of the subscribers base.
4-5 million new mobile phone subscribers added every month, Total adds in
2005 ~28 million, showing growth of almost 60% in last 12 months
Services in ~ 5000 cities & towns & ~1 lakh villages
Fixed Mobile Crossover in October 2004, GSM Fixed Crossover in April 2005
Mobile the primary driver of growth, accounts for 7% tele density
16
GROWING SUBSCRIBER BASE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*
COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports
* COAI Estimates
Subscriber growth predominantly on the prepaid plank
Allows even credit challenged subscribers to take advantage of benefits of
connectivity
Mobile connectivity a common feature amongst blue collar segment
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
Prepaid
Postpaid
17
IMPROVED AFFORDABILITY
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.036
0.02
0.0125
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*
Blended Airtime Rate
U
S
D

/

m
i
n
u
t
e
COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports
*TRAI Report Dec-05
1USD=Rs. 44.3
18
GROWING MINUTES OF USE
175
204
220
192
245
287
393
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*
M
i
n
u
t
e
s
/
S
u
b
s
c
r
i
b
e
r
/
M
o
n
t
h
COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports
*TRAI Report on GSM
19
DECLINING ARPUS
29.3
26.1
18.4
16.5
11.4
8.7
8.2
0
8
16
24
32
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*
Increased subscriber base accompanied by constantly declining ARPUs
demonstrating the increased acceptance of mobile services amongst low
end consumers.
U
S
D
/
S
u
b
s
c
r
i
b
e
r
/
M
o
n
t
h
1USD=Rs. 44.3
COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports
*TRAI Report
20
REDUCED OPEX PER SUBSCRIBER
22.4
19.1
10.2
7.4
6.5
4.7
3.6
0
10
20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*
Opex per subscriber brought down by 80% in last 5 years
Result of better improved efficiency by operators as well as the benefits of
economies of scale
U
S
D
/
S
u
b
s
c
r
i
b
e
r
1USD=Rs. 44.3
COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports
* COAI Estimates
21
COMPOSITION OF NET SERVICE REVENUES
Airtime, 28%
Rentals, 13%
Activation &
Processing fees, 20%
Roaming Revenues,
12%
SMS Revenues, 4%
Gross IUC Revenue,
15%
Other Revenues, 3%
Other VAS, 5%
Airtime Rentals
Activation & Processing fees Roaming Revenues
SMS Revenues Other VAS
Other Revenues Gross IUC Revenue
Source: Price Waterhouse Benchmarking Study, December 2004
Roaming Revenues 12%; SMS Revenues 4%; Other VAS 5%
22
REVENUES FROM VALUE ADDED SERVICES
10%
8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
As a %age of Service Revenues
CLIP
12%
Others
34%
SMS
54%
SMS
83%
CLIP
0%
Others
17%
P
o
s
t
p
a
i
d
P
r
e
p
a
i
d
VAS Composition
Source: COAI-Price Waterhouse Benchmarking Study, December 2004
Prepaid subscribers are increasingly taking to value added services, Percentage of Revenues
from VAS for prepaid subscribers has gone up from 3% in 2003 to 8% in 2004.
Overwhelming proportion of this comes from SMS, which is the VAS of choice for prepaid
subs.
23
GROWTH IN VALUE ADDED SERVICES
24
REVENUES FROM VAS
Revenue from the VAS segment is growing at the rate of 30 to 40 percent
annually. At present, this segment accounts for 10 to 13 percent of the total revenue of
a service provider,
- Tim DeLuca Smith, Communications Manager, SmartTrust.
Market for mobile VAS is currently about USD 85 million and it is expected to grow
around 800 million by 2010.
- Arun Gupta, CEO Mauj Telecom
Daily downloads of around 1 million ringtones and ringback tones.
average cost: Rs 9 per ringtone.
During festive season the figures skyrocket..
This Diwali, there was a six fold increase in value added service
downloads, over a normal day.
Delhi circle alone saw 8.5 million SMSs being exchanged on Diwali
day as against 5.5 million last year.
25
REVENUE GENERATED FOR OPERATORS FROM VARIOUS APPLICATIONS
0.07-0.14/minute,
voice + transaction
charges
IVRS
25-50% 14 1.13-3.39 Games
50-60% 14 0.23 Wallpapers
50-60% 7 0.14-0.34 CRBT
80-90% 5 0.07/MMS; 2.23
unlimited for 1 month
2.5G Messaging
70-75% 50 0.05 0.23 2G P2A/ A2P
90% 1,100 0.02 0.11 2G SMS
Operator Revenue
Share
Estimated monthly
downloads
(in million)
Charges
(in USD)
Application
Source: Global Equity Research
1USD=Rs. 44.3
26
REVENUES FROM SMS
S
M
S

V
o
l
u
m
e
s

i
n

b
i
l
l
i
o
n
Source: Portio Research
12.3
20.6
33.1
50.7
89.4
140.2
180
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Expected to grow in the next five years due to
falling prices,
increasing mobile penetration,
widening user demographic and
increasing number of SMS based services.
27
CONSUMER AWARENESS FOR DATA SERVICES IN INDIA
Source: Portio Research
4
5
7
10
27
62
76
90
0 20 40 60 80 100
MMS
M-banking
Data Services
Instant Access
Email
Call Waiting
Voice Mail
Roaming
28
INDIA
INDIA

S PLACE IN ASIA PACIFIC


S PLACE IN ASIA PACIFIC
29
ARPU
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand China Singapore Australia India
ARPU Average
INDIA
ARPUs well below Asia Pac average
Market driven by volumes not margins
USD
COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004
30
MINUTES OF USE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Malaysia China Singapore Australia India
ARPU Average
INDIA
One of the most talkative markets in the region
Increased use a direct result of affordability of service
M
i
n
u
t
e
s
/
S
u
b
s
c
r
i
b
e
r
/
M
o
n
t
h
COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004
31
COST OF CUSTOMER ACQUISITION
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia* Thailand* Singapore Australia India
Cost of Customer Acquisition
Average
INDIA
One of the lowest costs of customer acquisition in the region
U
S
D
* For the year 2002
COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004
32
MONTHLY CHURN
2.0%
6.7%
1.9%
1.0%
1.2%
1.5%
1.4%
8.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand China Singapore Australia India
INDIA
The highest Churn in the Asia Pac Region demonstrating existence of an
intensely competitive & vibrant mobile market
COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004
33
BAD DEBTS AS A % OF NET SERVICE REVENUES
1.3%
1.6%
0.9%
3.1%
2.8%
1.1%
3.0%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
Malaysia Philippines Thailand China Singapore Australia* India
INDIA
Bad Debts above Asia Pac averages; need to be brought under control
COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004
34
EBITDA
INDIA
Lowest EBITDA in Asia Pac Region; Combined effect of lowest tariffs & highest
costs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand China Singapore Australia India
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
EBITDA Average
COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004
35
PAST PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE AHEAD PAST PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE AHEAD
36
Convergence of Tariffs and Growth of mobile services
Mobile growth and effective charge per minute
Steps taken for increasing growth
0.90
1.18
13.00
33.60
89.54
52.17
0.88
1.20 1.88
3.58
6.50
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06
E
f
f
e
c
t
i
v
e

c
h
a
r
g
e

(
i
n

R
s
.

p
e
r

m
i
n
.
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
M
o
b
i
l
e

s
u
b
s
c
r
i
b
e
r

b
a
s
e

(
i
n

M
i
l
l
i
o
n
)
Fixed (Rs./min.) Full Mobile (Rs./min)
Limited Mobile (Rs./Min) Mobile Subscriber base (Millions)
NTP '99
Telecom
Tariff Order
3rd & 4th
cellular
operator
CDMA
introduced
CPP
introduced
Lowering of ADC
from 30% to 10%
of sector revenue
37
Falling ARPU vs. Rising Subscriber Base
29.77
25.12
19.95
10.59
9.19
7.90
1.88
3.58
6.5
33.6
51.57
89.54
14.31
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06
ARPU(in $) Subs. in (Mn)
* ARPU of March-06 are Estimated
38
Urban/Rural income-wise distribution of households
Income Group Rural Households Urban Households
Lower 60 (43.48%) 10 (18.52%)
Lower Middle 56 (40.58%) 20 (37.04%)
Middle to High 22 (15.94%) 24 (44.44%)
Total 138 (100%) 54(100%)
39
Effect of CPP Regime
Additions in Mobile
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Feb-
03
Mar-
03
Apr-03 May-
03
Jun-03 Jul-03
T
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
(TT .v. inovv.cv in /i 0, v{c inovv.ion o{ (vin Tv, Tv,. )cvvion,
ncc .v. v .v in noic vcnvnv. 1n .v.cqvcn qvvc nc nc in.cv.c in no. o{
^oic .cc 2! o{ nv o{ c.iov. ciov.
CPP Introduced
40
DECLINING ARPUS
29.3
26.1
18.4
16.5
11.4
8.7
8.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.0
0
8
16
24
32
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006* 2007* 2008* 2009*
Increased subscriber base accompanied by constantly declining ARPUs demonstrating
the increased acceptance of mobile services amongst low end consumers. To achieve the
required growth, the focus will shift to villages with low teledensity, and ARPU will be
going sub $5 mark I next few years.
U
S
D
/
S
u
b
s
c
r
i
b
e
r
/
M
o
n
t
h
1USD=Rs. 44.3
COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports
* Estimates
41
Past Growth and future Expectations
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
M
a
r
-
0
5
J
u
n
-
0
5
S
e
p
-
0
5
D
e
c
-
0
5
M
a
r
-
0
6
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
0%
10%
20%
Growth % Growth
1n v. onc ,cv, ov vvviion. .cc ^, ! o.c ^v0 {iv 1n v. onc ,cv, ov vvviion. .cc ^, ! o.c ^v0 {ivc. o{ nc.c {ovn .cc ^ inc.. c. o{ nc.c {ovn .cc ^ inc..
1n v. qvvc i .v. 1 o.n, vvvin noc nvn 1!^ .onnc. 1n v. qvvc i .v. 1 o.n, vvvin noc nvn 1!^ .onnc.ion. ion.
Iic.: o.in ,ovnc cncvion, 1inc o.n in IT Ii.o Iic.: o.in ,ovnc cncvion, 1inc o.n in IT Ii.o.vc in.onc., 1i .vc in.onc., 1i Ic.n 1nvv.ic. Ic.n 1nvv.ic.
i[c 1I, i[c 1I, Tnvnv Tnvnv, oonin c.i.c c.o , oonin c.i.c c.o
42
Growth (Estimates)
1n v. ,cv., o.n .v. noc
nvn 0 .v.
1{ .c v[c .v.vinvc vnv novcvc
o.n v vc.cv.in vc ov no..
vc i[c, o c_.ccv 00^ in 2010,
vnv 00^ c{oc 201.
Tocniv Iic.: o.c cn, (o.,
o.c nonn, c_cnvivc
.onnincn, )cv.n in .ivc. vnv
in.cv.c in ccvcn.i, .vcn -2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
43
Teledensity - Urban vs Rural
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Urban Rural Total
T
e
l
e
d
e
n
s
i
t
y

(
%
)
To bridge the Urban-Rural divide, Cost to Serve the Rural area should be reduced
Enhancement of Rural Density
0.9
0.7
0.5
1.2
1.5 1.7 1.74
1.94 2.3
2.9
3.6
4.3
5.1
7.04
9.08
9.86
6.9
8.2
10.4
12.2
14.3
21.3
26.2
31.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jul-05
Rural Total Urban
Source: TRAI
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q
1

2
0
0
1
Q
2

2
0
0
1
Q
3

2
0
0
1
Q
4

2
0
0
1
Q
1

2
0
0
2
Q
2

2
0
0
2
Q
3

2
0
0
2

Q
4

2
0
0
2
Q
1

2
0
0
3
Q
2

2
0
0
3
Q
3

2
0
0
3
Q
4

2
0
0
3
Q
1

2
0
0
4
Q
2

2
0
0
4
Q
3

2
0
0
4
Q
4

2
0
0
4
Q
1

2
0
0
5
Q
2

2
0
0
5
Q
3

2
0
0
5
Q
4

2
0
0
5
Impact of CDMA on India Impact of CDMA on India s Wireless Industry s Wireless Industry
Tariffs Tariffs
Rs.4.00/min. Rs.4.00/min.
Voice Tariffs Voice Tariffs
83 million net wireless sub adds since 83 million net wireless sub adds since
competition from CDMA Limited Mobility was introduced competition from CDMA Limited Mobility was introduced
Sources: TRAI study
Rs.1.00/min. Rs.1.00/min.
Voice Tariffs Voice Tariffs
CDMA Limited Mobility CDMA Limited Mobility
Introduced Introduced
with competitive with competitive
Service Offerings Service Offerings
Subscribers
(Millions)
Rs.0.40/min. Rs.0.40/min.
Voice Tariffs Voice Tariffs
46
FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL
47
lno|a ls Serr|ng Younger
Urban population -Indian Census 2001: Agewise
distribution
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
A
g
e

G
r
o
u
p
s
Population in lac
Demogrophic shiff
- PeopIe currenfIy in I4-30 yeors oge brockef (Net Senerution) wiII form fhe
Iorgesf chunk of Indio's popuIofion in fhe coming yeors
48
Srear porenr|a| oemano
The next generation The next generation People born in 1980 People born in 1980 s & 90 s & 90 s s
Majority of these young people will be in their early twenties
and thirties in the next ten to fifteen years
General profile of next generation General profile of next generation
Just started working or would start in near future
Single or just married with high disposable incomes
High Lifestyle Aspirations
49
/no |s /mongsr rne Fasresr Srou|ng Econom|es
8.6
6.2
5.0 5.0
4.8
4.6
4.2
3.5
3.1
2.8
0
3
6
9
12
C
h
i
n
a
I
n
d
i
a
M
a
l
a
y
K
o
r
e
a
S
i
n
g
T
a
i
w
a
n
P
h
i
l
H
K
T
h
a
i
I
n
d
o
10 year real GDP cagr (%)
46
39
31
25
22
16
20
22
27
27
38
41
47
48
51
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY-71 FY-81 FY-91 FY-01 FY-04
Agriculture Industry Services
Rapidly changing composition of GDP (%)
Growth has been accelerating in each decade
Industry + services (78% of GDP) growing at +8%
Impact of agriculture on overall growth is steadily reducing
Per capita income has grown by 7% CAGR over the past decade and is projected
to cross $1,000 by the end of the decade
50
Trenos |n 0onsumpr|on Parrern
Break up between Basic and Non Basic Household Expenditure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
Basic Non-Basic
Moving away from basic necessities
Aspirations given wings by higher Disposable Incomes have changed consumption
patterns
Decrease in outlay on basic: 16%
Increase in non-basic items: 39%
51
SUBSCRIBER BASE & MOBILE PENETRATION
14
32
29
27
316
4
18
48
58%
36%
12%
40%
25%
92%
88%
4.50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand China Singapore Australia India
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Subscriber Base
Mobile Penetration
INDIA
2
nd
largest market in Asia Pac, in absolute terms
With a mobile tele density of only 4.5% (now 6%) the one with the highest untapped
potential
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004
52
FUTURE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH
76 48 31 Sub (MLN) Actual
471 377 290 207 130 81 48 28 Sub (MLN) Projected
2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 2005 2005 2004 2004 2003 2003 India India
279 207 145 85 43 24 13.2 6.8 Subs (MLN)
2003 2003 2002 2002 2001 2001 2000 2000 1999 1999 1998 1998 1997 1997 1996 1996 China China
16 16 15 15 41 41 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 Year Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
China COAI Projections Actual
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
Year Ended December
53
The tariff drivers
The tariff drivers
54
Inspite Inspite of u burgeoning middIe cIuss us u potentiuI of u burgeoning middIe cIuss us u potentiuI
movers of demund the ubsoIute uffordubiIity movers of demund the ubsoIute uffordubiIity
remuins Iower thun the other economic success remuins Iower thun the other economic success
stories of the region, stories of the region,
Hence Sovernment of Indiu through its incumbent Hence Sovernment of Indiu through its incumbent
operutor impIemented innovutive turiff mechunism to operutor impIemented innovutive turiff mechunism to
Ieveruge fuII potentiuI of the teIecom network by Ieveruge fuII potentiuI of the teIecom network by
uttructing Iurge numbers of users, uttructing Iurge numbers of users,
55
Shift in tariff paradigms of cellular services

Concepf of Fixed monfhIy chorge shoffered


Concepf of Fixed monfhIy chorge shoffered
wifh Iife fime pIon.
wifh Iife fime pIon.

Pevenue sfreom onIy fhrough usoge chorge.


Pevenue sfreom onIy fhrough usoge chorge.

This modeI susfoins ifseIf on fhe Inferconnecf


This modeI susfoins ifseIf on fhe Inferconnecf
revenue, wifh minimum morgins.
revenue, wifh minimum morgins.

0reofer morgins on ferminofion of coIIs fhon on


0reofer morgins on ferminofion of coIIs fhon on
originofion of coIIs.
originofion of coIIs.

Due fo heovy compefifion , pressure is oIso


Due fo heovy compefifion , pressure is oIso
mounfing on usoge chorges.
mounfing on usoge chorges.
56
Whats next
eginning of the eru of mergers & ucquisitions in Indiun TeIecom eginning of the eru of mergers & ucquisitions in Indiun TeIecom, ,
Promoters huve begun seIIing off their stukes to Iong time pIuye Promoters huve begun seIIing off their stukes to Iong time pIuyers of rs of
teIecom operutions, teIecom operutions,
SustuinubiIity of Iow turiffs is highIy determined by the potent SustuinubiIity of Iow turiffs is highIy determined by the potentiuI iuI
demund of Indiun consumer, demund of Indiun consumer,
Turiffs ure epected to move uck to busics, Turiffs ure epected to move uck to busics,
UnIimited usuge with Fied monthIy Churge bused on CUS concept, UnIimited usuge with Fied monthIy Churge bused on CUS concept,
- - UnIimited pIuns both in busic und ceIIuIur, UnIimited pIuns both in busic und ceIIuIur,
- - Revenue through VAS und roudbund Revenue through VAS und roudbund
- - Interconnect revenue Interconnect revenue
- - undIing und convergence of services undIing und convergence of services
- - Enterprise service Enterprise service
- - Emergence of Indiun Emergence of Indiun MNCs MNCs in teIecom Sector, in teIecom Sector,
57
Shift in tariff paradigms of cellular services

Concepf of Fixed monfhIy chorge shoffered


Concepf of Fixed monfhIy chorge shoffered
wifh Iife fime pIons.
wifh Iife fime pIons.

Pevenue sfreom onIy fhrough usoge chorge.


Pevenue sfreom onIy fhrough usoge chorge.

This modeI susfoins ifseIf on fhe Inferconnecf


This modeI susfoins ifseIf on fhe Inferconnecf
revenue, wifh minimum morgins.
revenue, wifh minimum morgins.

0reofer morgins on ferminofion coIIs fhon on


0reofer morgins on ferminofion coIIs fhon on
originofion of coIIs.
originofion of coIIs.

Due fo heovy compefifion , pressure is oIso


Due fo heovy compefifion , pressure is oIso
mounfing on usoge chorges.
mounfing on usoge chorges.
58
Thank you.
Thank you.
S D Saxena
S D Saxena
Director (Finance), Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited Director (Finance), Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited
+91 11 23714141
sdsaxena@bsnl.in

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen