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The world's second largest telecommunications market has a Population of 1.08 Billion. Annual GDP growth rate of 8% over next 5 Annual GDP growth rate - Population - 1.4% - Labour Force - 2.5% - GDP growth - 6.7%. The country is Set to emerge as 3rd largest economy in the world by 2020.
The world's second largest telecommunications market has a Population of 1.08 Billion. Annual GDP growth rate of 8% over next 5 Annual GDP growth rate - Population - 1.4% - Labour Force - 2.5% - GDP growth - 6.7%. The country is Set to emerge as 3rd largest economy in the world by 2020.
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The world's second largest telecommunications market has a Population of 1.08 Billion. Annual GDP growth rate of 8% over next 5 Annual GDP growth rate - Population - 1.4% - Labour Force - 2.5% - GDP growth - 6.7%. The country is Set to emerge as 3rd largest economy in the world by 2020.
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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Verfügbare Formate
Als PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
)c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ )c. Tvvvin. in Icc.on Ivi{{ 2 INTRODUCTION TO THE WORLDS FASTEST GOWING TELECOM MARKET 3 THE WORLDS SECOND LARGEST MARKET Area 3,287,263 Square kilometers Population (July 2005) 1.08 Billion 22 National Recognized Languages Literacy Rate (2005) 65% Average Annual Growth Rate Population 1.4% Labour Force 2.5% GDP Growth- 6.7% Trade (2004) Total Exports (FOB) USD 76 Billion Total Imports (CIF) USD 97 Billion Forex Reserves (including gold) =USD 155 Billion Source : The World Bank Group 4 .& ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING ONES One of the fastest growing economies in Asia. One of the fastest growing economies in Asia. Annual GDP growth rate of ~8% over next 5 Annual GDP growth rate of ~8% over next 5- -10 years 10 years Set to emerge as 3rd largest economy in the world by 2020 Set to emerge as 3rd largest economy in the world by 2020 Major global hub for IT & IT enabled services Major global hub for IT & IT enabled services Mobile telephony transforming people Mobile telephony transforming people s lives s lives 5 Background of Mobile Revolution in Indian Telecom Background of Mobile Revolution in Indian Telecom 6 Reforms (liberalization) started in telecom Stutus in 1994 0,% teIe density - fur beIow worId uveruge of 10% und other neighbouring countries, TotuI phones: mn with u wuiting Iist of Z, mn, eIow Z% viIIuges {1,7 Iukhs} covered, NutionuI TeIecom PoIicy 1994 unnounced, TeIecom u nutionuI priority for increused economic deveIopment, PIun turgets revised to huve teIephone on demund und uII viIIuges covered, AII services uvuiIubIe internutionuIIy to be uvuiIubIe in Indiu by 199, VuIue-udded services opened in 199Z {ceIIuIur mobiIe rudio puging emuiI etc,} Resource gup of INR Z30000 miIIion to meet the revised turgets necessituted privute sector purticipution, Tendering process for seIection of privute pIuyers for usic und CeIIuIur services, 7 !ntroduction of Privatization Licenses oworded (in I99b-97) offer fendering ond bidding process: - 8 0SM Iicenses in 4 mefros (no bidding - beoufy porode). - 34 0SM Iicenses in I8 sfofe circIes - o 8osic Service Licenses in o sfofe circIes PesuIfs nof sofisfocfory due fo: - AcfuoI revenue reoIi;ofions for shorf of projecfions Ieoding fo operofors being unobIe fo orronge finonce for fheir projecfs ond compIefe roIIoufs. 0overnmenf oppreciofes fhe concern of fhe operofors ond oIIows for mid-course correcfions. 8 2001: the turning point Policy announced for additional licenses in Basic and Mobile Services (Jan 2001). Entry fee: Basic Services: US$ 0.2mn US$ 25.5mn (+ Bank Guarantees = 4 times entry fee for rollout obligations) GSM Mobile Services (4th Operator bid): US$ 0.2mn US$ 45mn License fee (revenue share) reduced from provisional 15% to 12%, 10% & 8%. Limited Mobility allowed to Basic Services (CDMA spectrum allotted to BSOs). Rollout Obligations to cover Urban / Semi-Urban / Rural areas in equal proportion. New licenses awarded in Jul - Sep 2001 : Basic (25), GSM Mobile (17). 9 Tariff 8 !nterconnection Regulations Movemenf fowords cosf-bosed foriff. Toriffs cIoseIy reguIofed by TPAI befween I999-Z00Z. Inferconnecfion Usoge Chorges esfobIished on fhe principIes of "work done" - ferminofion chorges infroduced. CoIIing Porfy Poys (CPP) for mobiIe foriffs - free incoming coIIs ushered in. Access Deficif Chorges (ADC) for cosf-minus fixed Iine services. Forbeoronce oIIowed recenfIy on oII foriffs (excepf ruroI fixed Iine). 10 MOBILE MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO TELE DENSITY Cellular constitutes ~61% of current national tele density has played an important role in taking overall tele density from 0.8 in 1994 to 12.3 in Feb06. Fixed 4.8 % Mobile 7.5 % Total 12.3% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Feb'06 11 GSM DRIVING MOBILE GROWTH 1 2 4 6 41 65 26 13 2 8 11 19 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb'06 GSM CDMA S u b s c r i b e r s
i n
M i l l i o n GSM driving growth of Indian market with nearly 80% market share & about 75% of new additions Year Ended March 12 IN SYNC WITH WORLDWIDE TRENDS Worldwide GSM constitutes 75% of the subscriber base and 80% of the monthly additions. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Jan'06 GSM CDMA S u b s c r i b e r s
i n
M i l l i o n Year Ended December 13 INDIAN GROWTH FUELLED BY INCREASED COVERAGE 249 421 918 1116 1575 1743 3076 5048 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Dec'98 Jun'99 Nov'00 Apr'01 Sep'02 Sep'03 Dec'04 Dec'05 Number of Cities & Towns Estimated that service providers will cover 5,000 towns by mid 2006 Ubiquitous coverage holds the key to future growth of mobile industry 14 AND CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING AFFORDABILITY Effective Tariffs 400 Minute Basket 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 D e c - 0 0 M a r - 0 1 J u n - 0 1 S e p - 0 1 D e c - 0 1 M a r - 0 2 J u n - 0 2 S e p - 0 2 D e c - 0 2 M a r - 0 3 J u n - 0 3 S e p - 0 3 D e c - 0 3 M a r - 0 4 J u n - 0 4 D e c - 0 4 U S D
p e r
m i n u t e In last 3 years alone, effective local call cellular tariffs have plummeted by 80% from USD 0.06 / minute in December 2000 to USD 0.01 / minute in December 2004. During 2005, tariffs have declined further by ~ 37% Source:TRAI Quarterly Performance Indicators, March 2005 15 INDIAN MOBILE INDUSTRY CURRENT STATUS 2006 133 state-of-the art Networks (GSM + CDMA) on Air: 91 on GSM Total Investments ~ USD 15 billion Nearly 85 million mobile subscribers (GSM + CDMA) end February 2006 with GSM accounting for ~80% of the subscribers base. 4-5 million new mobile phone subscribers added every month, Total adds in 2005 ~28 million, showing growth of almost 60% in last 12 months Services in ~ 5000 cities & towns & ~1 lakh villages Fixed Mobile Crossover in October 2004, GSM Fixed Crossover in April 2005 Mobile the primary driver of growth, accounts for 7% tele density 16 GROWING SUBSCRIBER BASE 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports * COAI Estimates Subscriber growth predominantly on the prepaid plank Allows even credit challenged subscribers to take advantage of benefits of connectivity Mobile connectivity a common feature amongst blue collar segment M i l l i o n Prepaid Postpaid 17 IMPROVED AFFORDABILITY 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.036 0.02 0.0125 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* Blended Airtime Rate U S D
/
m i n u t e COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports *TRAI Report Dec-05 1USD=Rs. 44.3 18 GROWING MINUTES OF USE 175 204 220 192 245 287 393 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* M i n u t e s / S u b s c r i b e r / M o n t h COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports *TRAI Report on GSM 19 DECLINING ARPUS 29.3 26.1 18.4 16.5 11.4 8.7 8.2 0 8 16 24 32 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* Increased subscriber base accompanied by constantly declining ARPUs demonstrating the increased acceptance of mobile services amongst low end consumers. U S D / S u b s c r i b e r / M o n t h 1USD=Rs. 44.3 COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports *TRAI Report 20 REDUCED OPEX PER SUBSCRIBER 22.4 19.1 10.2 7.4 6.5 4.7 3.6 0 10 20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* Opex per subscriber brought down by 80% in last 5 years Result of better improved efficiency by operators as well as the benefits of economies of scale U S D / S u b s c r i b e r 1USD=Rs. 44.3 COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports * COAI Estimates 21 COMPOSITION OF NET SERVICE REVENUES Airtime, 28% Rentals, 13% Activation & Processing fees, 20% Roaming Revenues, 12% SMS Revenues, 4% Gross IUC Revenue, 15% Other Revenues, 3% Other VAS, 5% Airtime Rentals Activation & Processing fees Roaming Revenues SMS Revenues Other VAS Other Revenues Gross IUC Revenue Source: Price Waterhouse Benchmarking Study, December 2004 Roaming Revenues 12%; SMS Revenues 4%; Other VAS 5% 22 REVENUES FROM VALUE ADDED SERVICES 10% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% As a %age of Service Revenues CLIP 12% Others 34% SMS 54% SMS 83% CLIP 0% Others 17% P o s t p a i d P r e p a i d VAS Composition Source: COAI-Price Waterhouse Benchmarking Study, December 2004 Prepaid subscribers are increasingly taking to value added services, Percentage of Revenues from VAS for prepaid subscribers has gone up from 3% in 2003 to 8% in 2004. Overwhelming proportion of this comes from SMS, which is the VAS of choice for prepaid subs. 23 GROWTH IN VALUE ADDED SERVICES 24 REVENUES FROM VAS Revenue from the VAS segment is growing at the rate of 30 to 40 percent annually. At present, this segment accounts for 10 to 13 percent of the total revenue of a service provider, - Tim DeLuca Smith, Communications Manager, SmartTrust. Market for mobile VAS is currently about USD 85 million and it is expected to grow around 800 million by 2010. - Arun Gupta, CEO Mauj Telecom Daily downloads of around 1 million ringtones and ringback tones. average cost: Rs 9 per ringtone. During festive season the figures skyrocket.. This Diwali, there was a six fold increase in value added service downloads, over a normal day. Delhi circle alone saw 8.5 million SMSs being exchanged on Diwali day as against 5.5 million last year. 25 REVENUE GENERATED FOR OPERATORS FROM VARIOUS APPLICATIONS 0.07-0.14/minute, voice + transaction charges IVRS 25-50% 14 1.13-3.39 Games 50-60% 14 0.23 Wallpapers 50-60% 7 0.14-0.34 CRBT 80-90% 5 0.07/MMS; 2.23 unlimited for 1 month 2.5G Messaging 70-75% 50 0.05 0.23 2G P2A/ A2P 90% 1,100 0.02 0.11 2G SMS Operator Revenue Share Estimated monthly downloads (in million) Charges (in USD) Application Source: Global Equity Research 1USD=Rs. 44.3 26 REVENUES FROM SMS S M S
V o l u m e s
i n
b i l l i o n Source: Portio Research 12.3 20.6 33.1 50.7 89.4 140.2 180 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Expected to grow in the next five years due to falling prices, increasing mobile penetration, widening user demographic and increasing number of SMS based services. 27 CONSUMER AWARENESS FOR DATA SERVICES IN INDIA Source: Portio Research 4 5 7 10 27 62 76 90 0 20 40 60 80 100 MMS M-banking Data Services Instant Access Email Call Waiting Voice Mail Roaming 28 INDIA INDIA
S PLACE IN ASIA PACIFIC
S PLACE IN ASIA PACIFIC 29 ARPU 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand China Singapore Australia India ARPU Average INDIA ARPUs well below Asia Pac average Market driven by volumes not margins USD COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004 30 MINUTES OF USE 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Malaysia China Singapore Australia India ARPU Average INDIA One of the most talkative markets in the region Increased use a direct result of affordability of service M i n u t e s / S u b s c r i b e r / M o n t h COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004 31 COST OF CUSTOMER ACQUISITION 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Malaysia Philippines Indonesia* Thailand* Singapore Australia India Cost of Customer Acquisition Average INDIA One of the lowest costs of customer acquisition in the region U S D * For the year 2002 COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004 32 MONTHLY CHURN 2.0% 6.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 8.0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand China Singapore Australia India INDIA The highest Churn in the Asia Pac Region demonstrating existence of an intensely competitive & vibrant mobile market COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004 33 BAD DEBTS AS A % OF NET SERVICE REVENUES 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% 3.1% 2.8% 1.1% 3.0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% Malaysia Philippines Thailand China Singapore Australia* India INDIA Bad Debts above Asia Pac averages; need to be brought under control COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004 34 EBITDA INDIA Lowest EBITDA in Asia Pac Region; Combined effect of lowest tariffs & highest costs 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand China Singapore Australia India 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 EBITDA Average COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004 35 PAST PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE AHEAD PAST PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE AHEAD 36 Convergence of Tariffs and Growth of mobile services Mobile growth and effective charge per minute Steps taken for increasing growth 0.90 1.18 13.00 33.60 89.54 52.17 0.88 1.20 1.88 3.58 6.50 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 E f f e c t i v e
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M i l l i o n ) Fixed (Rs./min.) Full Mobile (Rs./min) Limited Mobile (Rs./Min) Mobile Subscriber base (Millions) NTP '99 Telecom Tariff Order 3rd & 4th cellular operator CDMA introduced CPP introduced Lowering of ADC from 30% to 10% of sector revenue 37 Falling ARPU vs. Rising Subscriber Base 29.77 25.12 19.95 10.59 9.19 7.90 1.88 3.58 6.5 33.6 51.57 89.54 14.31 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 ARPU(in $) Subs. in (Mn) * ARPU of March-06 are Estimated 38 Urban/Rural income-wise distribution of households Income Group Rural Households Urban Households Lower 60 (43.48%) 10 (18.52%) Lower Middle 56 (40.58%) 20 (37.04%) Middle to High 22 (15.94%) 24 (44.44%) Total 138 (100%) 54(100%) 39 Effect of CPP Regime Additions in Mobile 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Feb- 03 Mar- 03 Apr-03 May- 03 Jun-03 Jul-03 T h o u s a n d s (TT .v. inovv.cv in /i 0, v{c inovv.ion o{ (vin Tv, Tv,. )cvvion, ncc .v. v .v in noic vcnvnv. 1n .v.cqvcn qvvc nc nc in.cv.c in no. o{ ^oic .cc 2! o{ nv o{ c.iov. ciov. CPP Introduced 40 DECLINING ARPUS 29.3 26.1 18.4 16.5 11.4 8.7 8.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.0 0 8 16 24 32 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006* 2007* 2008* 2009* Increased subscriber base accompanied by constantly declining ARPUs demonstrating the increased acceptance of mobile services amongst low end consumers. To achieve the required growth, the focus will shift to villages with low teledensity, and ARPU will be going sub $5 mark I next few years. U S D / S u b s c r i b e r / M o n t h 1USD=Rs. 44.3 COAI-PWC Benchmarking Reports * Estimates 41 Past Growth and future Expectations 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 M a r - 0 5 J u n - 0 5 S e p - 0 5 D e c - 0 5 M a r - 0 6 M i l l i o n s 0% 10% 20% Growth % Growth 1n v. onc ,cv, ov vvviion. .cc ^, ! o.c ^v0 {iv 1n v. onc ,cv, ov vvviion. .cc ^, ! o.c ^v0 {ivc. o{ nc.c {ovn .cc ^ inc.. c. o{ nc.c {ovn .cc ^ inc.. 1n v. qvvc i .v. 1 o.n, vvvin noc nvn 1!^ .onnc. 1n v. qvvc i .v. 1 o.n, vvvin noc nvn 1!^ .onnc.ion. ion. Iic.: o.in ,ovnc cncvion, 1inc o.n in IT Ii.o Iic.: o.in ,ovnc cncvion, 1inc o.n in IT Ii.o.vc in.onc., 1i .vc in.onc., 1i Ic.n 1nvv.ic. Ic.n 1nvv.ic. i[c 1I, i[c 1I, Tnvnv Tnvnv, oonin c.i.c c.o , oonin c.i.c c.o 42 Growth (Estimates) 1n v. ,cv., o.n .v. noc nvn 0 .v. 1{ .c v[c .v.vinvc vnv novcvc o.n v vc.cv.in vc ov no.. vc i[c, o c_.ccv 00^ in 2010, vnv 00^ c{oc 201. Tocniv Iic.: o.c cn, (o., o.c nonn, c_cnvivc .onnincn, )cv.n in .ivc. vnv in.cv.c in ccvcn.i, .vcn -2 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 M i l l i o n s 43 Teledensity - Urban vs Rural 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Urban Rural Total T e l e d e n s i t y
( % ) To bridge the Urban-Rural divide, Cost to Serve the Rural area should be reduced Enhancement of Rural Density 0.9 0.7 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.74 1.94 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.1 7.04 9.08 9.86 6.9 8.2 10.4 12.2 14.3 21.3 26.2 31.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jul-05 Rural Total Urban Source: TRAI 45 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q 1
2 0 0 1 Q 2
2 0 0 1 Q 3
2 0 0 1 Q 4
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2 0 0 2 Q 2
2 0 0 2 Q 3
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2 0 0 3 Q 2
2 0 0 3 Q 3
2 0 0 3 Q 4
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2 0 0 4 Q 2
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2 0 0 5 Q 2
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2 0 0 5 Impact of CDMA on India Impact of CDMA on India s Wireless Industry s Wireless Industry Tariffs Tariffs Rs.4.00/min. Rs.4.00/min. Voice Tariffs Voice Tariffs 83 million net wireless sub adds since 83 million net wireless sub adds since competition from CDMA Limited Mobility was introduced competition from CDMA Limited Mobility was introduced Sources: TRAI study Rs.1.00/min. Rs.1.00/min. Voice Tariffs Voice Tariffs CDMA Limited Mobility CDMA Limited Mobility Introduced Introduced with competitive with competitive Service Offerings Service Offerings Subscribers (Millions) Rs.0.40/min. Rs.0.40/min. Voice Tariffs Voice Tariffs 46 FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL 47 lno|a ls Serr|ng Younger Urban population -Indian Census 2001: Agewise distribution 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80+ A g e
G r o u p s Population in lac Demogrophic shiff - PeopIe currenfIy in I4-30 yeors oge brockef (Net Senerution) wiII form fhe Iorgesf chunk of Indio's popuIofion in fhe coming yeors 48 Srear porenr|a| oemano The next generation The next generation People born in 1980 People born in 1980 s & 90 s & 90 s s Majority of these young people will be in their early twenties and thirties in the next ten to fifteen years General profile of next generation General profile of next generation Just started working or would start in near future Single or just married with high disposable incomes High Lifestyle Aspirations 49 /no |s /mongsr rne Fasresr Srou|ng Econom|es 8.6 6.2 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.5 3.1 2.8 0 3 6 9 12 C h i n a I n d i a M a l a y K o r e a S i n g T a i w a n P h i l H K T h a i I n d o 10 year real GDP cagr (%) 46 39 31 25 22 16 20 22 27 27 38 41 47 48 51 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 FY-71 FY-81 FY-91 FY-01 FY-04 Agriculture Industry Services Rapidly changing composition of GDP (%) Growth has been accelerating in each decade Industry + services (78% of GDP) growing at +8% Impact of agriculture on overall growth is steadily reducing Per capita income has grown by 7% CAGR over the past decade and is projected to cross $1,000 by the end of the decade 50 Trenos |n 0onsumpr|on Parrern Break up between Basic and Non Basic Household Expenditure 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Basic Non-Basic Moving away from basic necessities Aspirations given wings by higher Disposable Incomes have changed consumption patterns Decrease in outlay on basic: 16% Increase in non-basic items: 39% 51 SUBSCRIBER BASE & MOBILE PENETRATION 14 32 29 27 316 4 18 48 58% 36% 12% 40% 25% 92% 88% 4.50% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand China Singapore Australia India 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Subscriber Base Mobile Penetration INDIA 2 nd largest market in Asia Pac, in absolute terms With a mobile tele density of only 4.5% (now 6%) the one with the highest untapped potential M i l l i o n COAI PWC Benchmarking Study, December 2004 52 FUTURE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH 76 48 31 Sub (MLN) Actual 471 377 290 207 130 81 48 28 Sub (MLN) Projected 2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 2005 2005 2004 2004 2003 2003 India India 279 207 145 85 43 24 13.2 6.8 Subs (MLN) 2003 2003 2002 2002 2001 2001 2000 2000 1999 1999 1998 1998 1997 1997 1996 1996 China China 16 16 15 15 41 41 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 Year Year 0 100 200 300 400 500 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 China COAI Projections Actual M i l l i o n Year Ended December 53 The tariff drivers The tariff drivers 54 Inspite Inspite of u burgeoning middIe cIuss us u potentiuI of u burgeoning middIe cIuss us u potentiuI movers of demund the ubsoIute uffordubiIity movers of demund the ubsoIute uffordubiIity remuins Iower thun the other economic success remuins Iower thun the other economic success stories of the region, stories of the region, Hence Sovernment of Indiu through its incumbent Hence Sovernment of Indiu through its incumbent operutor impIemented innovutive turiff mechunism to operutor impIemented innovutive turiff mechunism to Ieveruge fuII potentiuI of the teIecom network by Ieveruge fuII potentiuI of the teIecom network by uttructing Iurge numbers of users, uttructing Iurge numbers of users, 55 Shift in tariff paradigms of cellular services
This modeI susfoins ifseIf on fhe Inferconnecf revenue, wifh minimum morgins. revenue, wifh minimum morgins.
0reofer morgins on ferminofion of coIIs fhon on
0reofer morgins on ferminofion of coIIs fhon on originofion of coIIs. originofion of coIIs.
Due fo heovy compefifion , pressure is oIso
Due fo heovy compefifion , pressure is oIso mounfing on usoge chorges. mounfing on usoge chorges. 56 Whats next eginning of the eru of mergers & ucquisitions in Indiun TeIecom eginning of the eru of mergers & ucquisitions in Indiun TeIecom, , Promoters huve begun seIIing off their stukes to Iong time pIuye Promoters huve begun seIIing off their stukes to Iong time pIuyers of rs of teIecom operutions, teIecom operutions, SustuinubiIity of Iow turiffs is highIy determined by the potent SustuinubiIity of Iow turiffs is highIy determined by the potentiuI iuI demund of Indiun consumer, demund of Indiun consumer, Turiffs ure epected to move uck to busics, Turiffs ure epected to move uck to busics, UnIimited usuge with Fied monthIy Churge bused on CUS concept, UnIimited usuge with Fied monthIy Churge bused on CUS concept, - - UnIimited pIuns both in busic und ceIIuIur, UnIimited pIuns both in busic und ceIIuIur, - - Revenue through VAS und roudbund Revenue through VAS und roudbund - - Interconnect revenue Interconnect revenue - - undIing und convergence of services undIing und convergence of services - - Enterprise service Enterprise service - - Emergence of Indiun Emergence of Indiun MNCs MNCs in teIecom Sector, in teIecom Sector, 57 Shift in tariff paradigms of cellular services
This modeI susfoins ifseIf on fhe Inferconnecf revenue, wifh minimum morgins. revenue, wifh minimum morgins.
0reofer morgins on ferminofion coIIs fhon on
0reofer morgins on ferminofion coIIs fhon on originofion of coIIs. originofion of coIIs.
Due fo heovy compefifion , pressure is oIso
Due fo heovy compefifion , pressure is oIso mounfing on usoge chorges. mounfing on usoge chorges. 58 Thank you. Thank you. S D Saxena S D Saxena Director (Finance), Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited Director (Finance), Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited +91 11 23714141 sdsaxena@bsnl.in