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# CE298 Sujan Maharjan Tentative Methodology of calculation of Peak Probable Maximum Demand (PPMD) PPMD can be calculated if the

types of appliances in use, exact number of similar appliances for each type and fixture unit value for each type (Table 2.6, Ladds paper or IPC 2000) are known. Here is the step by step method for PPMD determination: Step 1: Determination of fixture unit of appliance not in the list of IPC 2000 For such appliance, we first need to find out duration of use (t) and interval between next use (T) which gives demand probability(p) =t/T, and as per Wongs paper T can be approximated by using formula T = 3600/(N*O*A) (1) Where, N =Number of usage per capita per hour A = Floor Area served O = Number of user per unit area Or, t and T can be determined by in situ experiment by finding average of the usage interval for that appliance. After finding p, knowing total of similar appliances (n) and we can find probability of m number of appliances operating for given n appliances mPn using binomial distribution. mPn = mCn * pn*(1-p)m-n (2)

An acceptable limiting failure rate (L) is assumed to be 1% as per Hunter (1940), that means only 1 failure or overload will occur in 100 usages. Also, 99% of time m number of similar appliance or lower will be used. Finding value of m for given failure rate of 1% is a tedious process, Wong(2010) gave a formula as below m = np + K* sqrt((2np(1-p)) where, K =1.8 (3) The value of simultaneous use of flush valve from equation (3) is compared with table 2.3 of Ladds paper of Threshold number of fixtures and tabulated in Table 1 below
Table 1: Threshold fixture Values Total Fixture Eq.6 Wong Table 2.3 Ladd 6 1.243676643 2 16 2.216976684 3 30 3.278453279 4 66 5.507816322 6 107 7.701856632 8 151 9.866081709 10 199 12.09576787 12 299 16.47878366 16

Corr. Coeff =

0.999962401

It seems that Ladd rounded out the values from the equation 3 as they have very high correlation. After finding m value, we can now know discharge from m number of appliances(Q) for given discharge from single appliance (q) which is given by Q = mq (4)

The value of Q is plotted against n number of appliances, and compared with known Q-n curve like flush value as a base. From the plot, for similar Q, we find number of appliance for both flush valve (nf) and appliance with unknown fixture unit(na). The average of ratio of number of fixtures (na/nf) will give the required fixture unit value for that appliance. Step 2 : Combined curve for various appliances After all the fixture units of various appliances are known, they are combined into one single curve using the formula as below Combined fixture unit (CFU) = A1/FU1 + A2/FU2 + +An/FUn (5)

Where, A1, A2, .An are total number of similar appliance and FU is corresponding fixture unit. The curve is plotted for known Q1 and corresponding CFU. Step 3: Determine the required value of PPMD read from the total known CFU of the MLK library from the curve formed. Step 4: Compare PPMD with design discharge currently provided to MLK library and draw conclusion.