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Nagarjuna Construction
Performance Highlights
Quarterly Highlights Standalone
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price `32 `41
12 Months Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 821 1,991 1.6 89/30 171,821 2 16,439 4,990 NGCN.BO NJCC@IN
For 4QFY2012, Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC) posted better-than expected numbers on the revenue and earnings front. However, the company disappointed on the EBITDAM level. The current outstanding order book of NCC stands at `20,196cr, with order inflow of `10,116cr (including captive power order worth `5,186cr) for FY2012. We maintain our Buy view on the stock. Earnings pulled down by poor EBITDAM and higher interest cost, despite higher revenue: For 4QFY2012, on the top-line front, NCC reported a jump of 21.0% yoy to `1,755cr, which was higher than our expectation of `1,429cr. On the EBITDAM front, the companys margin was disappointing at 5.8%, a dip of 320bp yoy and lower than our estimate of 7.4%. As per the company, provisions, time and cost overruns and higher input costs resulted in lower EBITDAM for the quarter. Interest cost came in at `98cr, registering a yoy jump of 19.9% but a decline of 8.1% on a sequential basis. On the bottom-line level, NCC reported a yoy decline of 69.7% to `11cr, almost in-line with our estimate of `10cr despite posting higher revenue owing to lower EBITDAM and higher interest cost. Outlook and valuation: NCCs performance on the revenue front in 4QFY2012 was a positive surprise, but poor EBITDAM and higher interest cost continue to affect the companys earnings in a negative way. Thus, we are revising our estimates downwards for FY2013 and FY2014, respectively, mainly to factor in poor performance at the EBITDAM level and as we do not expect the company to get respite from its high debt and stretched working capital in the near future. However, after a steep correction (46.2%) in the past three months, the stock is currently trading at low valuation of 0.3x FY2014E P/BV (standalone) and, hence, we maintain our Buy view on the stock with an SOTP target price of `41.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 19.6 19.9 44.9 15.7
3m
1yr
FY2011 5,074 6.2 163 (18.4) 6.4 9.6 5.0 7.1 9.7 0.3 0.6 6.5
FY2012 5,250 3.5 36 (78.0) 1.4 7.6 22.8 1.5 6.7 0.3 0.5 7.0
FY2013E 5,453 3.9 42 17.2 1.6 8.1 19.5 1.7 7.4 0.3 0.6 7.3
FY2014E 6,169 13.1 50 17.4 1.9 8.5 16.6 2.0 7.8 0.3 0.7 7.8
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 1,264 1186 78 10.3 107 21 39 0 (12) (2.2) (9) (0.8) (0.4)
% Chg (yoy) 21.0 25.3 (22.1) (320)bp 19.9 16.9 11.4 0 (74.4) (81.1) (69.7) (190)bp (69.7)
FY2011 5,074 4588 485 9.6 257 69 106 0 266 102 164 3.2 6.4
% Chg 3.5 5.7 (17.7) (200)bp 49.5 21.1 14.1 (80.1) (83.4) (78.0) (250)bp (78.0)
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
Projects update
Pondicherry Tindivanam: Currently, toll collection is `3.5lakhs/day, much lower than the breakeven level of `8lakhs/day. However, the company believes that toll revenue will pick up going ahead.
Western UP: Toll collection is currently at `20lakhs/day. Management expects `24lakhs/day going ahead.
Nelcast Power Project (1,320MW): NCC has achieved financial closure for the
project and has begun with civil works. On the fuel supply front, for 70% of coal requirement, the company has tied up with Coal India; and for the balance 30%, it has identified coal mines in Indonesia (30mn tonnes) with its share at 50% (15mn tonnes). Total investment in the mine for NCC would be at around `50cr, out of which `8cr-10cr has already been invested. NCC has been shortlisted for signing a power purchase agreement (PPA) of 500MW with Government of Andhra Pradesh for `3.7 per unit. Further, the company is hopeful of tying up with Government of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu for more PPAs to ensure that it ties up 900-950MW of power through PPAs.
4QFY12
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
0.6
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
(10.0) (20.0)
0.0 (1.0)
(0.8)
Methodology P/E P/E P/BV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV P/BV P/BV P/BV
Remarks 7x FY2014E Earnings 4x FY2014E Earnings 0.5 of equity invested; NCC's share 80.0% CoE -14%, NCC's share 33.3% CoE -14%, NCC's share 35.4% CoE -14%, NCC's share 30.0% CoE -14%, NCC's share 64.0% CoE -14%, NCC's share 49.0% 1.0x FY12E equity invested; NCC's share 67.0% 0.5x FY12E equity invested; NCC's share 55.0% 1.0x FY12E equity invested; NCC's share 54.0%
` cr 346.5 156.0 48.0 152.2 12.4 53.6 28.3 47.1 10.9 338.2 103.2 185.0 50.0 1,041
Rs/share 13.5 6.1 1.9 5.9 0.5 2.1 1.1 1.8 0.4 13.2 4.0 7.2 1.9 41
% to TP 33.3 15.0 4.6 14.6 1.2 5.1 2.7 4.5 1.0 32.5 9.9 17.8 4.8 100
Buy 13,963 16,017 18,359 Buy 53,171 59,559 69,089 Buy Buy 1,802 5,250 3,573 2,604 5,929 2,206 5,453 3,609 2,989 6,732 2,502 6,169 3,836 3,314 7,902
1,201 1,553
Company background
Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC), starting off as a building/industrial construction company, has emerged as an EPC contractor with a diversified product portfolio. NCCs presence across all the key infrastructure verticals: 1) roads (2% of order book); 2) buildings (28%); 3) water (11%); 4) irrigation (10%); 5) electrical (2%); 6) power (31%); 7) oil and gas (5%); and 8) metals (2%) endows it with a relatively de-risked business model. NCC has also ventured in international geographies (8% of order book) such as Oman and UAE, which further diversifies its business.
10
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Order Book to Sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROACE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROAE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cyc (ex-cash/mob.adv)(days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.6 2.8 2.2 1.0 4.8 1.6 0.8 5.0 0.8 1.0 5.5 0.9 1.3 6.2 0.9 6.5 57 83 137 120 6.9 57 89 126 139 6.0 59 99 131 176 5.3 74 96 188 183 4.8 84 89 231 161 4.7 70 84 205 155 11.8 12.7 9.4 12.8 13.4 10.2 9.7 10.0 7.1 6.7 6.9 1.5 7.4 7.5 1.7 7.8 8.0 2.0 7.7 0.7 1.6 8.5 10.2 0.5 7.6 9.0 0.7 1.5 8.8 9.3 0.6 8.5 8.3 0.6 1.2 6.4 8.1 0.8 5.0 6.0 0.7 1.1 4.7 11.5 0.9 (1.5) 6.4 0.7 1.2 5.1 12.1 0.9 (1.3) 6.8 0.7 1.2 5.4 11.0 1.2 (1.1) 6.5 6.0 8.1 1.1 65.7 8.4 7.8 9.9 1.3 86.9 6.5 6.4 9.0 1.0 92.7 1.4 1.4 4.6 1.4 94.0 1.6 1.6 5.2 1.4 94.0 1.9 1.9 6.0 1.4 94.3 5.3 4.0 0.5 3.4 0.5 5.2 0.7 2.9 4.1 3.2 0.4 4.1 0.5 4.5 0.6 3.2 5.0 3.5 0.3 3.1 0.6 6.5 0.6 3.8 22.8 6.9 0.3 4.4 0.5 7.0 0.6 3.8 19.5 6.2 0.3 4.4 0.6 7.3 0.6 4.2 16.6 5.3 0.3 4.4 0.7 7.8 0.7 4.1 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
NCC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12