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EXPERIMENT-1
AIM: To find the reliability of a system using Bayes decomposition theorem. THEORY: In Bayes method a keystone component is chosen. This keystone element can
have only two states viz. good or bad. When keystone is good it is shorted and a new reduced system is obtained and when keystone is bad then it is opened and again a reduced system is obtained and when keystone is bad then it is opened and again a reduced system is obtained. This process is repeated until the reduced system is series-parallel system. Then the reliability of reduced systems is obtained by methods of series-parallel reliability evaluation and is multiplied by the probability of proper keystone states and added together to get system reliability. Let us suppose a bridge system as shown. Let E be the keystone component.
Fig 1 Then two reduced systems are as shown in the figure 2 and fig 3. As these reduced systems are series-parallel systems, the overall reliability is obtained as: When E is good:
When E is bad:
Fig 3 RS2=[1-P(A)P(C)][1-P(B)P(D)] =(1-PaPc)(1-PbPd) Therefore, system reliability is:R=P(E)RS1+P(E)RS2 Let us suppose another network as shown in Fig 4 and choose element X to be the keystone element. Two reduced networks by considering X-good and X-bad are shown in the figure.
Fig 4 Firstly we have a series-parallel network whose reliability is easily seen as:
Fig 5 R1=(Pc+PaPy-PcPaPy)(Pd+PzPb-PdPzPb) Secondly its a bridge network which is considered to have two parallel branches Y and Z and hence R2 can be written as:
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Fig 6 R2=PeRS1+(1-Pa)RS2 Where RS1 and RS2 are given as Rs1 = [1-P(A)P(C)] [1-P(B)P(D)] = (1-QaQc) (1-QbQd) Rs2 = [1-P(A)P(C)] [1-P(B)P(D)] = (1-PaPc) (1-PbPd) and Pe is given as: Pe=Py+Pz-PyPz After derivation of R1 and R2 system reliability can be expressed as: R=PxR2+(1-Px)R1
MATLAB PROGRAMS:
PROGRAM 1 FOR FIG 7
FIG 7 pa=input('enter the reliability of element a') pb=input('enter the reliability of element b') pc=input('enter the reliability of element c') pd=input('enter the reliability of element d') px=input('enter the reliability of element x')
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py=input('enter the reliability of element y') pz=input('enter the reliability of element z') qa=1-pa; qb=1-pb; qc=1-pc; qd=1-pd; qx=1-px; qy=1-py; qz=1-pz; r1=(pc+pa*py-pc*pa*py)*(pd+pz*pb-pd*pz*pb); rs1=(1-qa*qc)*(1-qb*qd); rs2=(1-pa*pc)*(1-pb*pd); pe=py+pz-py*pz; r2=pe*rs1+qe*rs2; R=px*r2+(1-px)*r1; R
OUTPUT
enter the reliability of element a0.2 pa =0.2000 enter the reliability of element b0.4 pb =0.4000 enter the reliability of element c0.8 pc =0.8000 enter the reliability of element d0.7 pd = 0.7000 enter the reliability of element x0.1 px =0.1000
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enter the reliability of element y0.6 py =0.6000 enter the reliability of element z0.5 pz =0.500 R = 0.6732
FIG 8
pa=input('enter the reliability of element a') pb=input('enter the reliability of element b') pc=input('enter the reliability of element c') pd=input('enter the reliability of element d') pe=input('enter the reliability of element e') pf=input('enter the reliability of element f') pg=input('enter the reliability of element g') ph=input('enter the reliability of element h') qa=1-pa; qb=1-pb; qc=1-pc; qd=1-pd; qe=1-pe; qf=1-pf; qg=1-pg;
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OUTPUT
enter the reliability of element a0.2 pa = 0.2000 enter the reliability of element b0.4 pb = 0.4000 enter the reliability of element c0.8 pc = 0.8000 enter the reliability of element d0.7 pd = 0.7000 enter the reliability of element e0.1 pe = 0.1000 enter the reliability of element f0.6 pf = 0.6000 enter the reliability of element g0.5 pg =0.5000 enter the reliability of element h0.3 ph = 0.3000 R = 0.3260
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EXPERIMENT-2
AIM:- To determine the Reliability of complex systems using Path Tracing Technique. REQUIRMENTS: MATLAB software. THEORY:
Reliability:-Reliability may be defined as the probability of device performing its purpose adequately for the period intended under the given operating conditions. Reliability includes three important points 1. Device adequate performance 2. Time of adequate performance 3. The condition under which device operates COMPLEX SYSTEM:-Complex system is the system which cannot be simplified to combination of series and parallel systems
System 1 :
System 2 :
PROGRAM
% ******************RELIABILITY LAB*********************** % ********EXPERIMENT 2**********GROUP 4******************* % **RELIABILITY CALCULATION USING PATH TRACING TECHNIQUE** clc clear all Today=date disp('GROUP-4 : 108614, 624,638, 640') n=input('\n Z=[]; Z=input([' Enter the (',int2str(n),'*',int2str(n),') connection matrix : ']); Enter the no. of nodes : ');
disp(' Entered connection matrix is :') disp(Z) disp(' PLZ press any key!!') pause while(n>=3) for i=1:n-1
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for j=1:n-1 Z(i,j)=Z(i,j)+Z(i,n)*Z(n,j); end end disp(Z(1:n-1,1:n-1)) n=n-1 disp(' PLZ press any key!!') pause end disp('No further reduction of connection matrix, as n=2.') disp('Reduced matrix is:') disp(Z((1:2),(1:2))) disp('Reliability of the given system is =') d=Z(1,2); disp(d)
OUTPUT
For Fig. 1:
Today = 14-Feb-2012 GROUP-4 : 108614, 624,638, 640 Enter the no. of nodes : 5 Enter the (5*5) connection matrix : [0 0 0.5 0.1 0; 0 0 0 0 0; 0 0.4 0 0 0.4; 0 0 0.2 0 0.2; 0 0.3 0 0 0]
Entered connection matrix is : 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4000 0 0.3000 0.5000 0 0 0.2000 0 0.1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4000 0.2000 0
PLZ press any key!! 0 0 0 0 n=4 PLZ press any key!! 0 0 0 n=3 PLZ press any key!! 0 0 n =2 PLZ press any key!! No further reduction of connection matrix, as n=2. Reduced matrix is: 0 0 0.2764 0
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0 0 0.5200 0.0600
0.5000 0 0 0.2000
0.1000 0 0 0
0.0060 0 0.5200
0.5200 0 0
0.2764 0
Reliability of the given system is = 0.2764 Output for Fig. 2 : Enter the no. of nodes : 6 Enter the (6*6) connection matrix : [0 0 0.1 0.4 0 0;0 0 0 0 0 0; 0 0 0 0.3 0.2 0; 0 0 0 0 0 0.5; 0 0.1 0 0 0 0.4; 0 0.2 0 0 0 0] Entered connection matrix is : 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1000 0.2000 0.1000 0.4000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3000 0 0 0 0 0 0.2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5000 0.4000 0
PLZ press any key!! 0 0 0 0 0 n =5 PLZ press any key!! 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0360 0.1000 0.1000 0 0 0 0.4000 0 0.3000 0 0 0 0 0.1000 0.1800 0.1000 0 0 0 0 0.4000 0 0.3000 0 0 0 0 0.2000 0 0
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n =4 PLZ press any key!! 0 0 0 n=3 PLZ press any key!! 0 0 n =2 PLZ press any key!! No further reduction of connection matrix, as n=2. Reduced matrix is: 0 0 0.0466 0 0.0466 0 0.0400 0 0.0660 0.1000 0 0
CONCLUSION:
Here, in this experiment we studied Reliability of complex systems and for the given problems reliability is being calculated using Path tracing technique. For this purpose we developed a program in MATLAB. And results obtained for the given problems are: Reliability of the 1st system comes out to be 0.2764 and that of the 2nd system is 0.0466. Also, theoretically calculated reliabilities for these two systems come out to be the same as is obtained by above written program.
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EXPERIMENT: 3
AIM: To study event space method for determination of reliability of a system. THEORY:
The event space method is an application of the mutually exclusive events axiom. All mutually exclusive events are determined, and those which result in system success are considered. The reliability of the system is simply the probability of the union of all mutually exclusive events that yield a system success. Similarly, the unreliability is the probability of the union of all mutually exclusive events that yield a system failure.
PROGRAM:
a=input('Enter the number of elements'); h=power(2,a); disp('Enter binary sequence in accordance with the respective reliabilities of each element:') e=input('Enter the truth table in matrix form'); for s=1:a y=input('Enter the reliability for elements in serial order:'); for t=1:h if e(t,s)==0 e(t,s)=1-y; else e(t,s)=y; end end end disp(e) p=1; z=input('Enter the number of reliable paths:'); for i=1:z f=input('Enter row number: '); p=1; for u=1:a y=e(f,u); p=p*y; w(i)=p; end end disp(w); disp('The reliability of the system is: '); sum(w)
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OUTPUT:
Enter the number of elements 3 Enter binary sequence in accordance with the respective reliabilities of each element:Enter the truth table in matrix form[0 0 0;0 0 1;0 1 0;0 1 1; 1 0 0;1 0 1; 1 1 0; 1 1 1] Enter the reliability for elements in serial order:.1 Enter the reliability for elements in serial order:.6 Enter the reliability for elements in serial order:.9 0.9000 0.9000 0.4000 0.4000 0.1000 0.9000 0.1000 0.9000 0.1000 0.9000 0.1000 0.9000
0.9000 0.6000 0.9000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 0.6000 0.4000 0.4000 0.6000 0.6000
Enter the number of reliable paths:4 Enter row number: 1 Enter row number: 2 Enter row number: 6 Enter row number: 7 0.0360 0.3240 0.0360 0.0060
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EXPERIMENT -4
AIM: To calculate the reliability of a series, parallel or combination of seriesparallel circuit. THEORY: - Fault Coverage is the probability that a system will recover from a failure. This
can be derived approximately by examining the design, and making reliable estimates. This number will be difficult to determine exactly because it is based on real, and often unpredictable phenomenon. Reliability can be determined with individual system components as a function of probabilities. The two main categories of systems are series, and parallel (redundant). In the best case a high reliability system would have many parallel systems in series. In terms of design, a system designer must have an intuitive understanding of the concept of Series/parallel functions. We can consider a series system where if any of the units fails, then the system becomes inoperative. Here the reliabilities of each of the system components are chained (ANDed) together.
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When a parallel component fails the reliability of the overall system is reduced, but the system remains completely or partially functional. This type of reliability adds cost, so it is normally only used in critical systems where failure is not acceptable. Examples of systems using parallel reliability include, - brakes on a car - 4 brakes - electronic brakes, also have mechanical backups - lights - in dark places multiple bulbs are used so a failed bulb does not leave it dark. If any of the units fails the system will continue to operate. Failure will only come when all of the modules fail. Here we are concerned with complements of the chained unreliability.
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Also consider the case of a parallel system that requires m of n identical modules to be functional, such as a hybrid system, or a voting system that needs two out of three functional units.
Keeping in mind that many systems are a combination of series and parallel units, to find the total reliability, calculate the reliability of the parallel units first, and then calculate the series reliability, replacing the parallel units with their grouped reliability.
C PROGRAM :
/* SERIES RELIABILITY */
#include<stdio.h> #include<conio.h> #include<math.h> #define EXP 2.718 void main() { clrscr(); int n,i,s; float R,L,t,r,e; R=1; e=EXP;
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printf("\nEnter No of Elements,n= "); scanf("%d",&n); printf("\nEnter s=1 if L and t are given OR s=2 if r is given;\n s="); scanf("%d",&s); switch(s) { case 1: { printf("\nTotal time (hrs),t= "); scanf("%f",&t); for(i=1;i<=n;i++) { printf("Enter failure Rate per hr),L"); printf("%d=",i); scanf("%f",&L); r=pow(e,-(L*t)); R=R*r; } break; } case 2: { for(i=1;i<=n;i++) { printf("\nReliability of each element,r"); printf("%d=",i); scanf("%f",&r); R=R*r; } } } printf("\nReliability of Series System,R="); printf("%f",R); getch(); }
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/*PARALLEL RELIABILITY*/
#include<stdio.h> #include<conio.h> #include<math.h> #define EXP 2.718 void main() { clrscr(); int n,i,s; float R,L,t,r,e,q,Q; Q=1; e=EXP; printf("\nEnter No of Elements,n= "); scanf("%d",&n); printf("\nEnter s=1 if L and t are given OR s=2 if r is given;\n s="); scanf("%d",&s); switch(s) { case 1: { printf("\nTotal time (hrs),t= "); scanf("%f",&t); for(i=1;i<=n;i++) { printf("Enter failure Rate per hr),L"); printf("%d=",i); scanf("%f",&L); r=pow(e,-(L*t)); q=1-r; Q=Q*q; } R=1-Q; break; } case 2: { for(i=1;i<=n;i++) { printf("\nReliability of each element,r");
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printf("%d=",i); scanf("%f",&r); q=1-r; Q=Q*q; } R=1-Q; } } printf("\nReliability of Parallel System,R="); printf("%f",R); getch(); }
Q=1; for(i=1;i<=m;i++) { printf("Enter failure Rate per hr),L"); printf("%d%d=",i,j); scanf("%f",&L); r=pow(e,-(L*t)); q=1-r; Q=Q*q; } Rp=1-Q; printf("\nRp="); printf("%f",Rp); R=R*Rp; } break; } case 2: { for(j=1;j<=n;j++) { Q=1; for(i=1;i<=m;i++) { printf("\nReliability of each element,r"); printf("%d%d=",i,j); scanf("%f",&r); q=1-r; Q=Q*q; } Rp=1-Q; printf("\nRp="); printf("%f",Rp); R=R*Rp; } } } printf("\nReliability of Series Parallel System,R="); printf("%f",R);
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getch(); }
printf("%f",Rs); q=1-Rs; Q=Q*q; } R=1-Q; break; } case 2: { for(j=1;j<=m;j++) { Rs=1; for(i=1;i<=n;i++) { printf("\nReliability of each element,r"); printf("%d%d=",j,i); scanf("%f",&r); Rs=Rs*r; } printf("RS="); printf("%f",Rs); q=1-Rs; Q=Q*q; } R=1-Q; } } printf("\nReliability of Parallel Series System,R="); printf("%f",R); getch(); }
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nCr=f/(b*c); printf("\nnCr="); printf("%d",nCr); x=pow(p,r); y=pow((1-p),(m-r)); s=nCr*(x*y); R=R+s; } printf("\nR="); printf("%f",R); getch(); }
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EXPERIMENT-5
AIM:-To find reliability, failure rate, mean time to failure (MTTF) of k-out-of m structure in MATLAB. SOFTWARE USED: -MATLAB THEORY:In many practical systems, more than one of the parallel components are required to work satisfactorily for successful operation of the system. For example, we can consider a power plant where two of its four generators are required to meet the customers demand. In a 6-cylinder automobile, it may be possible to drive the car, if only four cylinders are firing. Such systems are known as k-out-of m systems. There are many situations where a system consisting of m components works satisfactorily when at least k out of m components are good.
Examples of k-out-of-m system (a) A piece of stranded wire with m strands in which at least k strands are necessary to pass the required current. (b) A shaft lift operated by four cables out of which at least two are necessary for safe operation. K-out-of-m Good system:-An m component system that works (or is good) if and only if at least k of the m components work (or are good) is called a k-out-of-m: G system. K-out-of-m Fail system:-An m component that fails if and only if at least k out of the m components fail is called a k-out-of-m: F system. Series system:-A series system is equivalent to a 1 out of m: Fail system and to an n-out-of - n: Good system. Series system can be desired as special case of this type with k equal to m. This is shown in Fig-1. Out
In
_________
X1
_________________
X2
____ _ _ _ _ _ ____________
Xn
Fig.1 Series Block Diagram with k=m Parallel system A parallel system is equivalent to an n- out- of n: Fail system and 1-out-of n: Good system. Parallel system can be described as a special case of this type with k equal to unity. This is known in Fig-2.
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Fig.2 K-out-of-m system:-A k-out-of-m block diagram as shown in Fig.3 is a closely related structure is a k-out-of m structure. Such a block diagram represents a system of m components in which any k must be good for systems to operate successfully.
Fig.3
Reliability measures:The reliability of a component can be interpreted as the fraction of the number of components surviving a test to the total number of components present at the beginning of the test. If a fixed number of components are tested, there will be, after a time t, NS (t) components which survive the test and Nf (t) components which fail. The reliability, expressed as a fraction by the probability definition at any time t during the test is: R(t)= (Ns(t)/No)=Ns(t)/(Ns(t)+Nf(t)) ---------------(1)
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The reliability can also be written as R (t) = No-Nf (t)/No= 1-(Nf(t)/No) Differentiate above equation, we obtain dR(t)/dt= -(1/No)*(dNf(t)/dt) dNf(t)/dt = -No*dR(t)/dt when we now divide above equation by Ns(t), we obtain the rate of failure or the instantaneous probability of failure per one component, which we call as failure rate: (t)= (1/Ns(t))*(dNf(t)/dt)= -(No/Ns(t))*(dR(t)/dt) Using equation 1, we get, (t)= -(1/R(t))*(dR(t)/dt) By rearrangement and integration of above equation, we obtain the general formula for reliability, (t)dt= -(dR(t)/R(t)) Or, ln R (t) = - ( ) At t=0, R (t) =1, we obtain R (t) =
When we specify that failure rate is constant, then in above equation: R (t) = - ( ) = -t
And the known reliability formula for constant failure rate is R (t) = e-t The mean time between failures can also be expressed in terms of reliability as: MTTF= ()
Reliability calculation for k-out-of-m structure For identical, independent components, with p as the reliability of each component, the probability that exactly x out of m components are successful is
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P=
Cx p * (1-p )
(m-x)
For a k-out-of-m system, the event of system success will be k, k+1, k+2 ............. or m components function successfully. So the system reliability is the sum of probabilities for x varying from k to m. i.e. R= mCi pi (1-p )(m-i) ,summation from i=k to i=m For constant failure rates, R(t) = mCi * e-it * (1-e-t) ^ (m-i) Mean time to failure (MTTF) MTTF = ()
= [ mCi * e-it * (1-e-t) ^ (m-i) ]dt = 1/ In a k-out-of-m system, (m-k) components are redundant components, and any increase in the value of k decreases the system reliability. PROGRAM IN MATLAB Problem 1 A power generation system in a factory has six identical generators, each with failure rate of 1.5 per 1000 hours with time to failure distribution as exponential. In certain application only 3 generators need to function. Find the probability of 3 or more generators functioning for a continuous period of 100 hrs. Also find MTTF for this. (For giving failure rate finding Reliability and MTTF) clc clear all m=input('Enter no. of identical generators in a power generation system in factory') f=input('Enter constant failure rate of each generator'); fprintf('Failure rate is %f hrs per unit time',f) k=input('Enter no of generators required for certain application'); t=input('Enter continuous time period'); x=0; y=0; A=[]; B=[]; for i=k:m A(i)=factorial(m)/(factorial(i)*factorial(m-i))*exp(-1*i*f*t)*(1-exp(-1*f*t))^(m-i) B(i)=1/i end for i=k:m x=A(i)+x;
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y=B(i)+y; end R=x MTTF=y/f Command Window (i) Enter no. of identical generators in a power generation system in factory m=6 Enter constant failure rate of each generator Failure rate is 0.001500 hrs per unit time Enter no of generators required for certain application k=3 Enter continuous time period 100 Time period is 100 hrs R = 0.9955 MTTF =633.3333 hrs (ii) Enter no of generators required for certain application k=4 R = 0.9611 MTTF =411.1111 hrs (iii) Enter no of generators required for certain application k=5 R = 0.8014 MTTF =244.4444 hrs (iv) Enter no of generators required for certain application 6
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.0015
Fig. 4 Plot of k with reliability PROBLEM 2 Let there be n = 5 identical components in a system. Define system "success" if k = 2 or more components are running during re-entry. Let every component have a reliability Ri (1) = 0.9. Let mission "re-entry" time be T = 1. If each component has a reliability Ri(T) = p = 0.9, then total system (shuttle) reliability R(T), the component FR ().
Program in MATLAB (For giving Component Reliability finding total system reliability and Failure rate) clc clear all m=input('Enter no. of identical generators in a power generation system in factory') p=input('Enter Reliability of each generator') k=input('Enter no of generators required for certain application'); x=0;
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A=[]; for i=k:m A(i)=factorial(m)/(factorial(i)*factorial(m-i))*p^i*(1-p)^(m-i) end for i=k:m x=A(i)+x; end R=x % Total System Reliability failurerate=-1*log(p) Command Window Enter no. of identical generators in a power generation system in factory 5 m=5 Enter Reliability of each generator p = 0.9000 Enter no of generators required for certain application R =0.9995 Failure rate = 0.1054 RESULT Reliability, Failure rate, MTTF have been calculated of different k-out-of-m structure numerical in MATLAB,and it has shown by graph in Fig4 as k increases, reliability decreases. 2 0.9
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