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How to solve forecasting problems on Minitab

Enter the data in column

Use the following command:

Chapter 6 Forecasting using Minitab

After entering the value of variable and MA length; click on ‘storage’ and then on ‘moving average’. Take care of the value of ‘MA length’; it varies from question to question and even within a question. For this question we are asked to use MA length of 3and 4seperately. Let us use 4.

Now check the value of MSD. Check and compare this value when using MA length 3 and 4. Whatever is less is better.

Chapter 6 Forecasting using Minitab

Moving Average Plot for Gasoline forecase
Variable
23
Actual
Fits
22
Moving Average
21
Length
4
Accuracy Measures
20
MAPE
15.1132
2.7188
19
MSD
9.6484
18
17
16
15
14
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Index
Gasoline forecase

The values of moving average appear in the column next to the data

You are done with the problem.

When you use MA lenghof 3, then you will get the following output.

Chapter 6 Forecasting using Minitab

Please note that the last vlaue in the second column (i.e., 19) is the next forecast.

Exercise: Please solve question no. 1 and 2. Do these questions manually as well through Minitab and compare the answers from the two methods.

Chapter 6 Forecasting using Minitab

Forecasting using exponential smoothing

Enter the data in column

Use the following command:

Chapter 6 Forecasting using Minitab

Click on ‘options’ and make following entries:

Chapter 6 Forecasting using Minitab

Followings are the results when you use alpha = 0.2

Please note that the first value in the seecond column (i.e., smoothed data) is the same as the first value in the time series (first column).

Exercise: please solve question no. 4 13. The data for the mentnioned queestions has already been provided in a separate excel file. Many of the questions would require comparison of moving average with exponentail smoothing.

Chapter 6 Forecasting using Minitab

Regression analysis

Frist step is data entry. See for instance, question no. 14

Use the following command: stat > regression > regression

Entre the value of ‘response’ and ‘predictor’ and then click OK

Chapter 6 Forecasting using Minitab