Short Communication - Western Australia Cyclone Hazard

Background

There is no region free from the geological risk. Therefore it is reasonable that CFPL registered the flood on their risk list. In this communication, it is intended to review the overall meteorological data at the Western Australia and to estimate appropriate amount of the risk. Finally the countermeasures on the risk will be reviewed.

Cyclone study
A. Overview Recently there was a severe tropical cyclone attack across the Western Australia coast at 18 March, 2012. The radio image shows the cyclone attacked Port Hedland directly. The cyclone was classified as a category four system. Most of cyclone visit during summer season from Dec. to Apr.

B. Cyclone attack frequency WA region is imposed on tropical cyclones. Following figure shows the average annual number of tropical cyclones.

The average number of cyclone at Port Hedland area is about 0.6~0.7. The possibility of cyclone attack in this region will be calculated as follows; P = ( 1 (1-0.6)^2 ) = 84% It is very likely to encounter cyclone attack during the construction period. It is noted that the number of cyclone in this region tends to decrease slightly. But it has no practical effect on the risk because the number of severe cyclone is not decreased.

C. Magnitude of cyclone attack The damage from a cyclone attack is governed not only the number of attack but also the magnitude. Practically it shall be noted that the magnitude is more important than the number. Following data shows the percentage of severe cyclone is about 50 60% in this country.

D. Probability of cyclone Based on this brief study, the probability of cyclone attack which may damage on the project is calculated as follows; P = 0.84 * 0.6 = 0.504 = 50% This result will be justified by an official document of Australian Government. The document says that since 1910 there have been 49 cyclones that have caused galeforce winds at Port Hedland. On average this equates to about one every two years.

It shall be noted that the probability does not the probability of the risk because every severe cyclone will not record significant damages. Also the probability is almost same with the study of RHI. See ref. 100RH-4000-ME-BOD-3001 Rev 1, Port Basics of Design, Page21 at which it was pointed out that operational 3 second gust shall be based on 1.5 year recurrence interval; non-operational 3 second gust shall be on a 2 year recurrence interval.

E. Probability of Damages A cyclone attack will impinge upon the project on several aspects such as flooding of the works, delays to schedule, loss of productivity and increased labour costs. Not every cyclone damages always were recorded. Australian government briefs on the historical cyclone damages at the project area. Fortunately, in spite of the relatively large number of cyclones, the resulting damages are not so serious every time. Since 1912, Port Hedland experienced 7 cyclone attacks resulting damages. http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/wa/pthed.shtml According to the document, since 1912, Port Hedland experienced seven cyclone attacks resulting damage. Joan was one of the most significant cyclones in WAs history, crossing the coast 50km west of Port Hedland. Eighty five percent of the towns houses were damaged to some degree especially along the ocean front. Heavy rain inland caused major flooding which included the Yule River. Roughly the number of cyclone visit can be calculated from above mentioned frequency. N= 0.6*100 (year) = 60 Therefore the probability of direct damage is about 11.7%(=7/60).

Concluding Remark
A. During the construction period, it is very likely to encounter cyclones. B. The probability is about 50%. C. The probability of direct damage seems around 10%.