June

4, 2012 POLL SHOWS LAMONTAGNE WITH MODEST LEAD OVER SMITH IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY BETTENCOURT SCANDAL HIGH ON VOTERS MINDS New Hampshire Journal is pleased to present the topline results of a 522N autodial survey of randomly selected, likely 2012 New Hampshire Republican primary voters, and independent voters, that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican state primary. The interviews were conducted May 31-June 2, 2012. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.28 at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey results are weighted based upon past primary voter demographics. Republican Primary Voters 89.5% Undeclared Primary Voters 10.5% ANALYSIS Ovide Lamontagne has a wide lead over Kevin Smith, 37-15, though given Lamontagnes significant advantage in name identification and image his 37% on the ballot illustrates some weakness as the campaign season officially opens this week as candidates file their paperwork at the Secretary of States office. Nearly 50% of all state primary voters are undecided in the Republican primary race for Governor meaning it is still a wide-open race. Lamontagne has a good favorable versus unfavorable image, 41-16, and leads in most regions and demographics showing tremendous strength with conservatives, particularly among three segments of voters: pro-life voters, those opposed to same sex marriage, and fiscal conservatives. Lamontagne is clearly benefitting from his three previous campaigns for office, most recently as a candidate for US Senate in 2010. Smith is still a virtual unknown with only 20% hard name identification. Thus, his 15% on the ballot says more about some possible displeasure with Lamontagne than it does positively for Smith. With low name identification and only a 1-1 image ratio, favorable versus unfavorable, Smith has tremendous work to do in three months time if he is going to knock off Lamontagne. Additionally, while jobs and the economy is the main concern among voters in other states across the country, Republican primary voters care about taxes and spending (33%) nearly as much as they care about jobs (36%).

 Finally, with the recent resignation of former Republican House Majority Leader DJ Bettencourt, a full 74% of Republican primary voters have seen, read or heard about the State House scandal. However, 58% of voters do not believe it will have an impact in the fall elections. FULL TOPLINE SURVEY RESULTS T1. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kevin Smith? Favorable 11% Unfavorable 9% No Opinion 23% Name ID 43% Hard Name ID 20% Never Heard Of 57% T2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ovide Lamontagne? Favorable 41% Unfavorable 16% No Opinion 23% Name ID 80% Hard Name ID 57% Never Heard Of 20% T3. If the Republican Primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote, Ovide Lamontagne or Kevin Smith? Ovide Lamontagne 37% Kevin Smith 15% Undecided 48%

 T4. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself conservative, moderate, or liberal on most issues? Conservative 56% Moderate 33% Liberal 11% T5. Do you favor or oppose allowing same sex marriage in New Hampshire? Favor 30% Oppose 57% Unsure 13% T6. Which one of the following issues is MOST important to you in deciding how to vote for Governor? Education 11% Taxes and spending 33% Gas and energy prices 5% Health care reform and cost 7% The economy and jobs 36% Moral values 8% T7. On the issue of abortion, do you consider yourself pro-life or pro-choice? Pro-life 49% Pro-choice 43% Dont know 8% T8. Have you seen, read or heard anything about the scandal involving the New Hampshire House Republican Majority Leader DJ Bettencourt? Yes 74% No 26%

 T9. Do you believe that a personal scandal involving one Republican leader in the State House will harm the Republican Partys chances of winning elections this fall? Yes 25% No 58% Dont know 17% ###