Environmental risk assessment of industrial accidents

A development project with the aim to: propose good practices establish simple criteria research and develop easy to apply models present the state of art of prevention and protection of the environment for conducting environmental risk analysis at industrial sites in France.

The complexity of the system

Hazard identification
Biology
Ecotoxicology

Physics Chemistry

Consequence analysis

Frequency analysis

Accidentology Statistics

Risk evaluation
Economics Sociology

Acceptance criteria

The 4 parts of the method

Part 1
evaluate the harm potential of chemical substances

evaluate the transport potential of a pollution towards the environmental targets Part 2 estimate the vulnerability of the environmental targets

Part 3

define the principal measures of prevention and protection from accidental environmental pollutions Part 4

Accidentology:ARIA database
http://www.aria.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/
The study of previous accidental pollutions of soils, ground and surface waters can give us useful feedback on: causes and circumstances of accidents routes of contamination type of industrial installations and activities substances implicated consequences and impact permitting us to evaluate in a first quick approach the danger (frequency&impact) of an industrial site or activity.
No ARIA 15.598

The most common routes of contamination

Discharge of fire-fighting water into the aquatic environment

Discharge through the sewage system or cooling water system

Discharge through the rain drainage system Direct release (e.g. from a ruptured pipeline, or a failed valve)

Overfilling of a storage vessel

Release to the atmosphere and then contamination through deposition (particles or rain)

Discharge through the ground).

source
Atmosphere
Environment: humans plants animals

volatilization

Soil
Unsaturated zone Saturated zone

run off infiltration

human activities: fishing, farming

target

rivers

to rivers, lakes, sea

transport

Simplified schema of accidental pollution

SOURCE
TRANSPORT TRANSPORT

TARGET

TARGET

The 3 modules of the method

TRANSPORT POTENTIAL (physicochemical properties) HARM POTENTIAL (toxicity, quantity)

source
PHYSICOCHEMICAL PROPERTIES
(type of soil, vegetation etc.)

DANGER

VULNERABILITY

(endangered species, kids etc.)

transport
TOPOGRAPHY (distance to water bodies, land inclination etc.)

KINETICS

DAMAGE

target

IMPACT MAGNITUDE

(area affected, number of species)

Problems:
interactive relations among the three modules

complexity of physical 2 phase approach: phenomena

diversity of cases

preliminary risk analysis high cost and difficulty of performing an extensive research of the detailed risk analysis
amount of data needed surroundings domino effects

objective evaluation of the impact

How to apply the same method to every case???

Hazard
identification
(SEVESO2 inst.)

Preliminary
Risk Analysis

Basic data
over the 3 modules

NO

RISK ?

NOT SURE

Detailed Risk Analysis

Elaborate data
over the 3 modules

YES
NO
RISK ?

Cost effective barriers?

NO YES

YES
Possible barriers?

YES RISK TRIVIAL

NO RISK
UNACCEPTABLE

ALARP

Preliminary analysis

STEP 1: Source
Substance identification

Quantity Toxicity Mobility

Basic data
available

NO

QSAR
possible ?

NO

Detailed analysis

YES

YES

Danger evaluation
NO NOT SURE

STOP

Danger exists?

YES
perform STEP 2: transport

Preliminary analysis

STEP 2: Transport
Step1: Substance data Site properties

Soil type Distance to water bodies Natural & artificial barriers

Transport potential evaluation

NO

Data
missing ?

YES
Transport Possible

STOP

NO

NOT SURE

Detailed analysis

YES
perform STEP 3: target

Preliminary analysis

STEP 3: Target
Step 3: Transport data Vulnerability of the environment

Identification of area and population touched

NO

Data
missing ?

YES STOP

NO

Impact important ?

NOT SURE

Detailed analysis

YES Apply measures, barriers YES

Protection prevention possible?

NO

SOURCE
quantity Evaluation of the harm potential with the use of classes of danger ( Seveso legislation) toxicity basic physical parameters: volatility, viscosity, solubility Evaluation of mobility basic chemical parameters: reactivity(basic products) , +persistance biodegradability, radioactivity, half-life past accidents involving the substance Protection or existent methods of post-accidental treatment prevention possibility

Preliminary analysis

exact physical and chemical data (Tb, kow, koc, kh, viscosity etc.) reaction chains and products with regard to other substances present in the site (factory, soil) use of available software to model the substance behavior in the environment

Detailed analysis

Transport
site limits possible pathways presence of natural or artificial barriers distance to water bodies soil types and basic properties consider only advection and dispersion of the substance and estimation of the transport distance and time in order of magnitude exact data on soil properties (permeability, porosity, vegetation, mineral and chemical composition, water retention) data on dispersion and degradation constants and consideration of other physical and also chemical phenomena during the transport modeling with the use of appropriate software climatic data over the area

Detailed analysis

Preliminary analysis

Target
quick estimation of the human population near the area quick estimation of fauna and flora around the area presence of extremely vulnerable populations (Natura 2000) identification of principal human activities that may be affected from a soil or river pollution (land use, potable water quality) use of the impact evaluation table (E.U , BARPI) quick estimation of economical losses soil, air, water and groundwater intake quality post-accidental ways of exposure to the pollution life conditions economical estimation of damage and repair costs societal health effects time of reconstitution of the area use of software to model the impact

Detailed analysis

Preliminary analysis

Frequency evaluation
Past accidents in the specific site Past accidents in similar sites

Frequency estimation with the use of tables qualitative

EVENT

Possible but Very improbable extremely improbable

Improbable

Probable

Very Probable

Common

semi-quantitative:
FREQUENCY CLASS

10-6

10-5
105

10-4
104

10-3

10-2

10-1
101

10

(from F-2 to F6)

F6

F5

F4

F3

103

F2

102

F1

F0

F-1

10

F-2

Measures of prevention and protection

Measures designed to prevent risks of leakage (pipeline, vessel rupture etc.) Measures designed to prevent risks of soil infiltration et run off of pollutants Measures of preventing the transport of the pollutant towards the target

Protection barriers to limit pollution inside the installation's limits

Treatments for inland waters remediation and pollution control Methods of soil remediation and pollution control

Summary
PHASE 1: preliminary analysis PHASE 2:
detailed analysis

COST- EFFECTIVE MEASURES

STEP 1 source STOP STEP 2 transport

STEP 1 source STOP STEP 2 transport

STEP 3 target

STEP 3 target

STOP

Tasks still to be done

still simple tools that can be used to estimate the order of magnitude of the transport have to be improved ( equations, indicateurs etc) need for consequence and danger tables that can be used from every country and every industry