Criteria for Decision-Making

Critical Indicator

Tropical Cyclone: _______________________________________ Indicator of Concern Advisory Number: ____________ Date/Time: ______________ Conditions Red Yellow Green

Criteria A. Risk Area Definition 1 Time of this Advisory / Worksheet (During Weekdays) County / Region within NHC 72 hour average forecast error cone CPA arrival time of tropical storm force winds ________ Hrs ________ AM / PM ________________, 1999 NHC Watch or Warning Issuance Hurricane Warning _____ Hurricane Watch ______ TS Warning _____ TS Watch ______ 5 Highest actual probability as provided in column E of NHC Strike Probability Forecast Probability = _________ % Portion of the coast has a maximum probability for the forecast time period (color of probability value box represented in HURREVAC tracking map) Hrs before eye landfall = __________ 72 hours = 10% 48 hours = 13 - 18 % 36 hours = 20 -25 % 24 hours = 35 - 50 % 12 hours = 60 - 80 %

- 5:00 - 7:00 AM = Red - 5:00 PM Or 11:00 PM = Yellow - 11:00 AM = Green - Within 36 hours from landfall = Red - Within 72 hours from landfall = Yellow - Greater than 72 hours from landfall = Green - Within 24 hours = Red - Between 24 and 48 hours = Yellow - Between 48 and 72 hours = Green - Hurricane Warning = Red - Tropical Storm Warning or Hurricane Watch = Yellow - Tropical Storm Watch or less = Green - > 30 % = Red - 10 - 30 % = Yellow - < 10 % = Green - Any portion at maximum range (or has red probability box on HURREVAC tracking map) = Red - Any portion has yellow = Yellow - Any portion has blue = Green

- Increase by more than 5% = Red

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Increase or decrease of maximum probability since last advisory Hurricanes steepest forecast angle of approach relative to Florida peninsula coastline. _________ degrees _________ oclock Hurricanes steepest forecast angle of approach relative to Florida panhandle coastline. _________ degrees _________ oclock Counties predicted to receive hurricane force winds based on the 72 hour NHC forecast track Two or more counties from the following RPC regions in the NHC 72 hour average forecast error cone or within 50 miles of left or right edge

- Increase less than 5% or Remain the same = Yellow - Decrease = Green - 150 - 210 degrees (5 - 7 oclock) = Red - 150 - 120 degrees (5 - 4 oclock) OR 210 - 240 degrees (7 - 8 oclock) = Yellow - 90 - 120 (3 - 4 oclock) OR 210 - 270 degrees (8 - 9 oclock) = Green - 90 - 120 degrees (3 - 4 oclock) = Red - 120 - 150 degrees (4 - 5 oclock) = Yellow - 150 - 180 (5 - 6 oclock) = Green - Hurricane force winds or greater = Red - Between 58 and 74 mph = Yellow - Less than 58 mph = Green - Southwest, South, Tampa Bay = Red - Treasure Coast, East Central, Northeast = Yellow - Withlacoochee, North Central, Apalachee, West = Green

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B. Storm Intensity and Evacuation Scenario Determination 1 Current intensity Sustained wind speed _______ MPH Cat ________ Predicted forecast intensity (greatest over 72 hour forecast or at landfall) Highest/landfall sustained wind speed ______ MPH Cat ________ Difference in central pressure from last advisory This Advisory = _____________ mb Last Advisory = _____________ mb Number of hours until landfall of eye ____________ Hours 5 Planning Assumption for Determination of - Major (cat 3, 4, 5) = Red - Hurricane (cat 1,2) = Yellow - Tropical storm = Green - Increase = Red - No increase = Yellow - Decrease = Green - Decrease by more than 10 mb = Red - Decrease by less than 5 mb = Yellow - No decrease = Green - 49 or more hours = Red - 25 to 48 hours = Yellow - 1 to 24 hours = Green For C3 and C4

Evacuation Zone Cat ____________ C. Local Evacuation Characteristics 1 Predicted forward speed over 72 hour forecast period or until landfall 0 - 24 hrs = ________MPH 24 - 48 hrs = ________MPH 48 -72 hrs = ________MPH Highest clearance times for counties within 72 hour average forecast error cone ___________________ County ________ Hrs 3 Least number of hours from expected landfall of tropical storm (TS) windfield based on closest point of approach (CPA) ________ Hrs Earliest CPA decision time based on County / Region clearance time for communities within the 72-hour average forecast error swath _______________ County / Region ________ Hrs ________ AM / PM ________________, 1999 For Region / County with greatest clearance or earliest to respond time, period of day which CPA decision time occurs ________ Hrs Least number of hours from expected landfall of tropical storm (TS) windfield based on direct to point (DTP) for counties within 72-hour average forecast error cone ___________________ County / Region ________ Hrs Earliest DTP decision time based on County / Region clearance time for communities within

- One Red in any category = increase one category - C1 & C2 are Yellow and C3 is green OR All Green = remain the same

- Increase = Red - Remain the same = Yellow - Decrease = Green

- One county with 36 hours or greater = Red - One or more counties with clearance between 24 to 36 hours = Yellow - No counties with clearance times over 24 hours = Green - Less than 24 hours = Red - Between 24 and 36 hours = Yellow - Greater than 36 hours = Green - Exceeds remaining time before arrival of tropical storm winds = Red - Within 6 hours of decision time = Yellow - 12 hours or greater from decision time = Green - 11:00 PM (10:00 PM CDT) to 6:00 AM OR 9:00 AM to 4:00 PM Monday thru Friday = Red - 4:00 PM to 11:00 PM (10:00 PM CDT) = Yellow - 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM = Green - Less than 24 hours = Red - Between 24 and 36 hours = Yellow - Greater than 36 hours = Green

- Exceeds remaining time before arrival of tropical storm winds = Red

the 72-hour average forecast error swath ________________ County / Region ________ Hrs ________ AM / PM ________________, 1999 8 Special Events, Holiday Weekend Considerations

- Within 6 hours of decision time = Yellow - 12 hours or greater from decision time = Green - Hurricane occurring one week before or after 4th of July or Labor Day Weekend OR between October 20 to November 30 in South or Southwest Florida = Red - Hurricane occurring between 4th of July or Labor Day Weekend OR during other local special event = Yellow - No holiday or local special events = Green - Hurricane exits above hurricane strength = Red - Extend to inland county boundaries = Yellow - Coastal counties only = Green - = Red - = Yellow - = Green

Inland extent of hurricane force winds based on wind MEOWs for maximum forecast intensity and forward speed values Shelter Status of Regions within 72 hour average forecast error cone

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