UpdateCoal, Iron Ore, FFA

Akshat Jaswal, CFA

4-May-12
akshat.jaswal@intlfcstone.com

COAL
COAL SETTLEMENT PRICES ON ICE PRICE CHANGE ROTTERDAM COAL FUTURES JUN 2012 91.05 1.05 Q3 2012 95.53 1.31 CAL 2013 107.68 1.00 RICHARDS BAY COAL FUTURES JUN 2012 97.30 -0.40 Q3 2012 98.00 0.85 CAL 2013 106.80 0.97 GLOBAL COAL NEWCASTLE FUTURES JUN 2012 100.80 0.35 Q3 2012 102.03 0.60 CAL 2013 110.00 1.00
Relief rally yesterday. Coal held up despite the hammering at the crude oil counter. Structurally still weak. Hearing US cargoes increasingly finding their way into China and India. Neutral to negative stance.

Forward Curves
115 110 105 100 95 90 85 APR 12 MAY 12 JUN 12 JUL 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13

ROTTERDAM

RICHARDS BAY

NEWC

COAL SETTLEMENT PRICES ON SGX PRICE CHANGE SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL JUN 2012 75.18 -0.25 Q3 2012* 74.90 0.05 CAL 2013* 78.03 0.37 CFR SOUTH CHINA JUN 2012 100.38 -1.02 Q3 2012* 100.46 -1.04 CAL 2013* 103.06 -0.73 *AVERAGE DSP

Forward Curves
135

Coal Historical

107.00 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 101.00 100.00

81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72

130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85

CFR China

Indo FOB

ARA

RB

NEWC

Coal Routes
C3 21.52 C4 9.08 C5 7.90 C7 10.03

ARARB spread

C3-C5
80.00
70.00 60.00

Rotterdam - Richards Bay, Spread

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

50.00
40.00 30.00

20.00
10.00 0.00

-10.00
-20.00
FCStone Group, Inc. assumes no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures or options on futures contracts, OTC products. Commodity trading is risky and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of FCStone Trading LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved. Akshat Jaswal - Senior Risk Management Consultant www.intlfcstone.com Akshat.jaswal@intlfcstone.com (HP): +62 9183 4373 (O): +65 6309 1028

Yahoo IM: axatjaswal

UpdateCoal, Iron Ore, FFA

Akshat Jaswal, CFA

4-May-12
akshat.jaswal@intlfcstone.com

DRY BULK FFA INDICATIVE FORWARD CURVES

SPOT JUN 2012 JUL 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 MAY-DEC 12 CAL 2013 CAPESIZE 7069 10600 11000 11800 14800 11500 11900 14500 605 1350 600 600 650 400 300 350 PANAMAX SPOT 13051 JUN 2012 9850 JUL 2012 9500 Q3 2012 9150 Q4 2012 9800 Q1 2013 9200 MAY-DEC 12 9800 CAL 2013 10200 -458 -750 -350 -450 -300 -400 -500 -200 SUPRAMAX SPOT 11582 JUN 2012 10700 JUL 2012 10500 Q3 2012 10250 Q4 2012 10400 Q1 2013 10100 MAY-DEC 12 10500 CAL 2013 10500 95 -100 -100 -250 -200 0 -100 -100

Cape,PMX, SMX Curve

16000 14000 12000
800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300

SINGAPORE FO 380

10000
8000 6000 4000 SPOT JUN 2012 JUL 2012 AUG 2012 SEP 2012 OCT 2012 NOV 2012 DEC JAN 13 CAL 13 2012

Cape

PMX

Supra

IRON ORE
SGX - IRON ORE SWAPS MAY 12 142.33 JUN 12 139.17 JUL 12 138.08 Q3 2012* 137.00 Q4 2012* 134.14 MAY-DEC 2012* 136.87 CAL 2013* 127.32 *AVERAGE DSP
SHFE Rebar - OCT 2012

SGX Iron Ore Swap Curve

145 140 135

-0.3 -0.64 0 -0.56 -0.61 -0.56 -0.12

4500 4400 4300

130
4200
4100 4000

125 120 115 110

SHANGHAI REBAR ACTIVE MONTHS PRICE CHANGE OCT 12 4241 -23 JAN 13 4223 -18

3900

105 100 APR 12 JUL 12 OCT 12 JAN 13 APR 13 JUL 13 OCT 13

TSI up $0.30 at $144.90. MTD$144.96. The benchmark October Rebar contract on SHFE is at 4249 yuan, up 8 yuan at 0945 SGT. Hit a two month low yesterday. Still hold a negative view.
FCStone Group, Inc. assumes no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures or options on futures contracts, OTC products. Commodity trading is risky and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of FCStone Trading LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved. Akshat Jaswal - Senior Risk Management Consultant www.intlfcstone.com Akshat.jaswal@intlfcstone.com (HP): +62 9183 4373 (O): +65 6309 1028

Yahoo IM: axatjaswal

UpdateCoal, Iron Ore, FFA

Akshat Jaswal, CFA

4-May-12
akshat.jaswal@intlfcstone.com

NEWS
India's Orissa state mulls cap on iron ore output-official India's top iron ore producing state of Orissa is considering a 4 percent cut in its output to curb illegal mining, a government official said, reducing still further already depleted exports from the No. 4 producer. The state government is examining a proposal from its mines department for the cut, which would be based on its estimated output of 60 million tonnes in the last fiscal year to March 2012. In the year to March 2011 -- the latest data available -- Orissa exported about 16.14 million tonnes, mostly to China. (Reuters) Indonesia to impose tax, curbs on raw metal exports Indonesia will impose a new export tax on metal ores and prohibit the shipment of raw minerals unless miners submit plans to build smelters, in a decision likely to shake up mining in one of the world's major metals exporters. The tax is an average 20 percent duty on 14 mineral ore exports including copper, gold and nickel from Sunday, slightly lower than expected but enough to hurt miners in Southeast Asia's biggest economy. "Miners can export with a condition that there will be export duties imposed. The figure is being calculated, on average it is 20 percent for 14 metals," Energy and Minerals Minister Jero Wacik told a news conference. The regulation "will not allow anyone to export raw material, unless they submitted a roadmap to build a smelter, he said, in a confirmation of an existing rule aimed at stopping small miners, which have ramped up shipments in the past year. Indonesia is the world's leading exporter of thermal coal, but Wacik said the export duties will not apply to that mineral, leaving open the possibility of a future tax on exports. (Reuters) Rio CEO warns on risks to supply Miner Rio Tinto has told investors it is listening to their worries over spending on major new projects, even as it warned of the ensuing risks to supply, as soaring costs and clamouring stakeholders eat away at incentives to build mines. Increasing demands from governments, combined with capital costs that have doubled over the last four years and calls from shareholders for buybacks and special dividends, are denting the incentives to invest in new supply -- something Rio warned on Thursday that forecasters may be underestimating. "It is getting harder and harder to find supply, harder and harder to find resources. And resources are in places where stakeholder activism is tough and resource nationalism is tougher. It takes longer to get permits approved, if they get approved at all," Rio Chief Executive Tom Albanese said. "So the next five years is going to be a supply story; the last five years has been a demand story. I am not sure the economic forecasters have cottoned on to that observation yet." (Reuters)

FCStone Group, Inc. assumes no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures or options on futures contracts, OTC products. Commodity trading is risky and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of FCStone Trading LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved. Akshat Jaswal - Senior Risk Management Consultant www.intlfcstone.com Akshat.jaswal@intlfcstone.com (HP): +62 9183 4373 (O): +65 6309 1028

Yahoo IM: axatjaswal