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June08,2012

Pakistan'sConfusingBudget
TheBudgetSpeechwasshortandinconclusive.ThePreBudgetlaunchoftheEconomicSurveyof Pakistanhadnothingtooffer.ManyhadpredictedthattheBudgetwasgoingtobeverypeoplefriendly howeverturnedouttobetheveryopposite.Therewasareductioninsubsidies,applicationor exemptionofGeneralSalesTax(AlocalalternativetoVAT)onfewitems,afewtweakshereandthere, butnothingofanyimportance. Itcameasnosurprisetome!Ihadalreadypredictedthatnothingwouldchange. Theworldeconomy Theworldeconomyisinshambles.Ithasbeenpredictedthatthisisadoublerecession.EuroZone economiesfaceamajordebtcrisis.TheUShasitsownshareofproblemswithslowgrowthand unemployment.Withtheshrinkageofdemandthroughouttheglobe,Pakistan'seconomyisboundtobe effected.ExportsformamajorpartofIndustrialproduction,employmentandtaxation.Asaresultwe couldonlyseeourownTradedeficitincrease,highunemployment,andlowertaxrevenue. Rupeedevaluation TheRupee(PKR)hasbeenonanosedive.Ithasseenamajordeclineisvalueversusthedollarsincethe beginningofthisyear.Itstandsataround94toadollar(USD),withworsepredictionsforthefuture. Importswillbemoreexpensive,profitswouldbelowerattimeofrepatriationfor MNCs(Multinationals),Utilitieswouldbecostlier,Rawmaterialimportswouldeffectproduction,and productslinkedwithinternationalmarketpriceswouldgothroughtheroof. Thecauseistworeasons;highinterestrateswasboundtodrivetherupeedown,andIMFinstructions motivatedtheSBP(Pakistan'scentralbank)nottointervene. Thiswouldhavedevastatingimpactonoureconomy! FiscalDeficit Pakistan'sgrowingfiscaldeficitisaresultoftheretentionofPublicsectorenterprises,Debtfinancing, andGovernmentspending.Governmentdidn'tpursuethepolicyofprivatization,itwishestoretain controlovermajorareasofbusiness,sincecorruptionallowsmanytoflourish.Thedebtburden resultingfromtheentireprocessofpoorandnefariousplanningiscausingaseriousthreatas governmenthasnoresourcestopayback.TheGovernmentistooBIG!Runbyinefficientarmyof bureaucrats.Theoperationalandsalaryexpensesareunbearable.Thecorruptionandnepotismis causingtheeconomyahugeloss. Taxes Theprincipleoftaxationisnotverywellunderstood.TheGovernmentintendstocollecttax,revisethe targetsupwardsbutdonothinginreturn.Withindustrialgrowthhinderedandcommercialrevenues 1

June08,2012 goingdown,wherewillthemoneycomefrom? TheAuthor AliNasirisaleadingeconomistfromPakistan.Hecanbecontactedviaemail alinasir.executive@gmail.com Followhimontwitterali_nasir_ec

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