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Energy Consulting General Electric Company One River Road, Building 2, Room 620 Schenectady, NY 12345 518 385-3335; Fax 518 385-9529 lavelle.freeman@ge.com http://www.gepower.com/energyconsulting
GE Energy 2007
GE Energy 2007
Distribution System Planning Tab 1 T&D mission and goals 2 Basic design and operation 3 Integrated T&D planning 4 T&D costs 5 Performance metrics 6 The T&D Planning Process 7 Short range planning 8 Long range planning 9 Load Forecasting
Distribution Reliability
Reliability concepts Distribution reliability Reliability indices Reliability targets Cost of poor reliability Causes of interruptions Assessing reliability Improving reliability
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Tab 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
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Primary Objectives
T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Distributions systems exist to deliver power to customers at their locations with adequate
GE Energy 2007
Capacity Requirements
T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Sizing transformers, conductors, equipment for peak load Load flow tools typically used to design for capacity
A system designed only for capacity would have no protective or sectionalizing devices
GE Energy 2007
Frequency Requirements
T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Small amount of 25 Hz, 400 Hz and other special frequencies in use Some DC (0 Hz) still used (trains, elevators)
In many other countries 50 Hz is widely used Frequency planning is not typically a distribution issue
A generation and bulk power issue Sometimes considered in underfrequency load-shedding schemes
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Voltage Requirements
T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Must maintain the voltage at the customer location within permissible limits ANSI C84.1
Voltage Range (volts) 114 - 126 110 - 127 Application Note
Range A
Range B
System will be designed and operated so that most of the service voltage is within this limit. Service voltage in this range are allowed provided that they are infrequent and of limited duration
GE Energy 2007
T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
50 Hz - more efficient for generation and transmission 240 volts - lower losses, better regulation for service
http://www.guide360.com/destinations/Electrical_systems
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Reliability Requirements
T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Distribution reliability is regulated by authorities (PUC, PSC, municipal board, etc.) or others
Frequency of outages Duration of outages Typical Availability is 99.98% 2 hours downtime Reliability needs vary with customer and time of use
Approx 50% of capital spending is for reliability Most outages (80-95% for some utilities) occur on the distribution system
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T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
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10
But rigorous approaches still not widely used for reliability analysis
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T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Deliver power with required frequency (60Hz) Satisfy voltage requirements within 5% Deliver at least 99.98% availability (<2 hr out/yr) Have capacity to meet instantaneous demand Reach all customers wherever they exist
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T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Cost recovery, rate freeze, risk of bypass, stranded assets, market fluctuations, mergers & acquisitions
Aging infrastructure
50% of engineers eligible for retirement in 5 years 99% drop in power engineer graduation rate per state over the last 20 years
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T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Maintain/improve customer satisfaction Manage capital and O&M expenditures and drive out inefficiency Mitigate business risks and enable business growth Position company to take advantage of new technology
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Six Key Factors that Influence T&D Design 1. It is more economical to move power at high voltage 2. High voltage equipment has greater cost but much greater capacity 3. Utilization voltage is useless for moving power 4. It is costly to change voltage level 5. Power is generally more economically produced in large amounts 6. Power must be delivered in small quantities
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Customer Service drop 120/240 V Substation Switching station Large industrial facility with own substation Generating plant
GE Energy 2007
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Hi-voltage grid (transmission) Switching (transmission) stations Subtransmission Distribution substations Primary feeder Service transformers Secondary circuits
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Each covers the entire system Each is essential for providing service Each succeeding level (moving down) has
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
More units that the previous level Lower average capacity per unit Greater total capacity than the previous level Generally lower reliability than the level above More service areas
GE Energy 2007
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Level of System
GE Energy 2007
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
By voltage level transmission is above 34 kV; distribution is 34 kV and below By service point distribution feeds service transformers; transmission feeds substations By topology transmission is networked or looped; distribution is typically radial By purpose transmission is built partly for stability and operation; distribution is built to distribute power to customers
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Distribution substations Primary feeders Laterals and branches Service transformers Secondary circuits Service drops
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Distribution Substation
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Where transmission and distribution meet Steps down voltage and splits power path Typically large footprint (acre or more) Components include
GE Energy 2007
High and medium voltage racks and buses High and medium breakers and switches Power transformers (10 MVA 150 MVA) Monitoring and metering equipment Protection, control and regulation equipment
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Route power from substation through service area to service transformers 3-ph backbone & 1-ph laterals OH wires and UG direct-buried or ducted cable Operated radial; may be loop designed Components include
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Line/cable sections, poles, conduits manholes Protection and sectionalizing equipment Monitoring, metering, control and regulation devices
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Service Transformers
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Pole-mounted for overhead service; padmounted or vault-type for underground Located reasonably close to customer
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Route power at service voltage to endcustomers Termination point is meter at customer location Typically radial design and Missions and goals operation for OH; can be looped Basic design and operation (URD) or networked (grid) for UG Integrated T&D planning Generally single phase in US T&D costs
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Transmission Grid: relatively small number of circuits, complex electrical behavior, failures do not necessarily cause interruptions, repairs lengthy and costly
Distribution: larger number of circuits, typically radial, relatively simple electrical behavior, failures often cause interruptions, restoration usually by switching Service: very high number of circuits, radial, simple electrical behavior, failures always cause interruptions, restoration requires repair, repairs generally quick and less costly
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Distribution Operation
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Crews respond to faults, perform switching and repairs, routine maintenance and construction
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
T&D systems are sometimes designed and operated as three distinct systems
The design of one affects the economic and electrical performance of the others Optimizing the design of one level can significantly increase the cost of other levels System planners should look at the system as a whole and make globally optimal decisions,
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where possible
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
1. 2. 3. 4.
How far apart should substations be? What should be the transmission voltage? How large should the substations be (MVA)? What should be the distribution voltage?
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How far apart should substations be? The father substations are apart, the larger the individual service areas, and vice-versa
Avg. 5 mi apart
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Avg. 3 mi apart
GE Energy 2007
H. L. Willis and G. B. Rackliffe, Introduction to Integrated Resource T&D Planning
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Is it better to have fewer larger and more costly stations or less smaller and cheaper ones? Answer partially depends on the cost of substations and how it varies with size In general the answer is yes
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Substation size influences transmission design Larger stations need more power delivered Transmission system must be robust enough to deliver large amounts of power But fewer lines will be needed because there are fewer stations Are fewer, but larger transmission lines less expensive than more, but smaller ones?
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
GE Energy 2007
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Fewer, larger stations means that feeders must move power farther to customer location Longer delivery distance means higher voltage May require more feeders to cover the larger service area May require larger conductor to move more power and reduce technical losses
GE Energy 2007
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Larger, fewer, father apart substations will require a stronger distribution system that can move power father This means a more expensive feeder system but the additional expense may be justified by the savings in substation and transmission system costs due to greater economy of scale
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Economics and electrical behavior of all three levels determine overall cost & performance
H. L. Willis and G. B. Rackliffe, Introduction to Integrated Resource T&D Planning
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
The system cost is determined by the capital cost for design, engineering and construction and the continuing costs for operation and maintenance of the system The system performance is determined by the capacity to supply the load demand with the required reliability and power quality
There is a natural trade-off between cost and performance in the design of T&D systems
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T&D Costs
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
T&D systems are expensive to design, build and operate Cost Element Value
Equipment, Fixtures, etc. Real Estate and easements Books, Maps and Manuals Going Concern Value TOTAL $9,000,000 $10,000,000 $350,000 $12,000,000 $31,350,000
Evaluation of a Municipal Distribution System in the Southeastern US serving only 12,000 customers
Equipment, land, labor for preparation, construction, assembly, installation, other commissioning costs
Labor and equipment for operation, maintenance and service, taxes and fees, electrical losses
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Transmission Costs
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Usually based on a cost per-unit length for conductor, fixtures and support structures. Termination cost is associated with substation
Size of Power Line Normal Rating MW Cost per per Mile* 32 $161,000 56 $168,000 79 $175,000 108 $181,000 151 $188,000 151 $336,000 151 $205,000 398 $484,000 398 $309,000 1,060 $1,130,000
Voltage
wood pole, single wood pole, single wood pole, single wood pole, single wood pole, single steel pole, single steel pole, double steel pole, single steel pole, double steel pole, single
Typical OH cost for capacity $100/kW ($.5 - $5/kW-mile) Typical UG cost for capacity $1000/kW ($3 - $25/kW-mi)
115 kV underground cable 180 $4,400,000 230 kV underground cable 360 $5,000,000 * Right-of-way cost not included ** From The Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy
Above Ground 4/0 AWG 397.5 kcmil 715.5 kcmil 397.5 kcmil 715.5 kcmil 715.5 kcmil 715.5 kcmil 1,113 kcmil 1,113 kcmil 2,300 kcmil, bundled Underground 200 MVA 400 MVA
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Substation Costs
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Includes cost of all equipment and labor required to build a substation, including land and easement (ROW)
Site: cost of buying land, preparing it for substation Transmission: cost of terminating incoming lines at the site Transformer: cost for power transformer, cooling, buswork, safety measures, metering and control Feeder getaway: cost of getting feeders out of S/S
Nominal Voltage (kV) 115 - 13.2 35 - 12.5 115 - 35 230 - 13.2 230 - 34.5 Rated Capacity (MVA) 20 / 37.3 12 / 16 / 20 60 / 112 27 / 45 60 / 112 Number of Feeders 4 2 5 5 5 Capital Cost $3,348,000 $1,026,000 $4,050,000 $3,960,000 $5,040,000
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H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Feeder Costs
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Typical cost of 3-phase, OH, wood pole, medium voltage (12.47 kV) feeder with large conductor (600 MCM) is $150,000/mile Cost can vary widely depending on labor, land cost, geography, load density, design standards
OH 3-phase: $10 - $15; OH Laterals: $5 - $15 UG Ducted: $30 - $100; UG Direct Buried: $5 - $15
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Service Costs
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
service drops
Service Component Pole and Hardware 50 KVA transformer (installed) 500-ft secondary, 1-ph 10 serice drops TOTAL
service transformer
Average cost for distribution capacity (including feeders and service): $660/kW
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Operating and Maintenance Costs Continuing annual expense that may include
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Vary greatly from utility to utility and often accounted for and reported differently General rule of thumb is O&M costs are 1/8 to 1/30 of T&D capital cost Most often used figure is 10%, to be conservative
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H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
GE Energy 2007
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Additional cost to remove old conductor, upgrade hardware, work on energized line
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Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
T&D systems often built with 50% margin High cost of upgrade may justify use of load management (DSM) or DG to defer or delay investment But upgrade of heavily loaded feeder may reduce losses enough to justify upgrade But DSM and DG (in some cases) may also lower losses There are no easy answers or rules of thumb
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Electrical Losses
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Load-related losses (I2R losses) increase as the square of the load (current)
No-load losses is power required to establish a magnetic field inside wound equipment
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Cost of Losses
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Cost of losses ($/kW/yr) = Demand cost ($/kW/yr) + Energy cost ($/kWh) * 8760 (h/yr) * Loss factor The cost of losses can be considered an operating cost for the T&D system
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Demand Cost
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Varies with utility depending on assumptions Customer is charged on a per kW basis Some examples for demand cost basis are
Marginal (avoided) cost - cost of capacity required to generate transmit and distribute power Wholesale rate for power utility buys/sells additional power Replacement cost filed with SEC Past investment data Zero - utility has excess capacity
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Energy Cost
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
MW
20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 1-Jan 8-Jan
Cost assessed on a per kWh basis i.e. energy cost varies with time
22000
15-Jan
22-Jan
29-Jan
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Loss Factor
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Loss factor (LsF) is used to estimate the average line losses from the peak demand
Average power loss in a period Loss factor = Maximum loss during the period
LsF = A * LF + B * LF2
Where A + B = 1, A = 0.1 0.3, B = 0.7 0.9 A typical relationship is LsF = 0.15 * LF + 0.85 * LF2
GE Energy 2007
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Consider a typical 12.47 kV, 3-phase, OH feeder, with 15 MW capacity (600 MCM), serving a peak load of 10 MW with 4.5% loss at peak. The load factor is 64%. Given a demand charge of $10/kW and an energy cost of 3.5 cents/kWh, calculate the cost of losses.
Cost of losses = Demand cost + Energy cost * 8760 * LsF Demand cost = ($10/kW) * (.045*10,000 kW) = $4,500 Loss factor LsF = 0.15 * (0.64) + 0.85 * (0.64)2 = 0.444 Energy cost = ($.035/kWh) * (.045*10,000 kW) * 8760 * 0.444 = $61,260 Cost of losses = 4,500 + 61,260 = $65,750
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Cost of Delivery
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Cost Components 4 kW x 100 miles x $1.0/kW-mile 4 kW x $50/kW 4 kW x 1.5 miles x $10/kW-mile 10% of 50 kVA local service system Total Capital Cost O&M, taxes and fees (PW over 30 yrs) Cost of electrical losses (PW over 30 yrs) Estimated cost of power delivery (present worth over 30 years)
Goal of the planner is to minimize cost of delivery while maximizing system performance
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics
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Metrics
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
E.g. Voltage drop on a given 5-mile feeder = 5% Frequency of outages in 2003 = 2.3/customer
E.g. Onsite inspection reveals that transformers are in fair condition The average customer is satisfied with his service
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Purpose of Metrics
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Monitor status: baseline or point of reference Measure improvement over time Benchmarking (compare and contrast) Documentation Planning and decision-making Input to higher-level processes
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Monitor Status
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
CAIDI (hrs/int.)
2 SAIFI (int./yr)
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Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
4 CAIDI (hrs/int.)
2 SAIFI (int./yr)
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Benchmarking
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Q4
3
400
300
1
0
North American Utilities
BC Hydro
Canadian Utilities
BC Hydro
Canadian Utilities
Q3 Q2 100
Q1
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200
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Documentation
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Reporting to management Regulatory requirements Tracking performance Business needs Justification of expenses
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Planning and Decision-Making Input into Higher Level Processes Metrics form the basis for decisions made up and down the utility enterprise
$75,000 $60,000
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Trouble call
Confirmation
Repair
Travel
$150,000
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Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Financial performance
System performance
Reliability Assessment Cost Analysis
Customer satisfaction
Outages
Repairs
CAPEX
O&M
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Financial Performance
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Simple cost F PW = Present worth (1 + d ) ( ) Levelized cost LC = PW (1d+1d+)d1 Life-cycle cost, FCR, etc.
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System Performance
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Power quality
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Customer Satisfaction
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Determine customer expectations Measure how product and services match customer expectations Qualitative or semi-qualitative measures
Increasingly important in industry as customer choice and consumer voice becomes greater
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Misuse of Metrics
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Comparison between utilities may not be valid since data are not adjusted to account for differences
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Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Viable distribution plan must not only provide good economy but also satisfy criteria for
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Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Constraints are fully met if distribution plan falls within their limits No additional benefit for satisfying more than bare minimum (or maximum) requirement Example: voltage and loading limits
Goals are open ended objectives that should be maximized (or minimized)
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
What is planning?
A method for achieving an end An often customary method of doing something A detailed formulation of a program of action An orderly arrangement of parts of an overall design or objective A detailed program
The goal of T&D planning is to provide orderly, economic expansion of equipment, facilities to meet future demand with acceptable reliability
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Planning Alternatives
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Different substation sites, feeder routes and designs Different switching paradigms, protection schemes Different voltage and loading levels
Not really, but a documented planning process can help to identify required preparations
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Select the option that best satisfies the goals with respect to the problem.
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H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
Stage offers greatest flexibility to move toward an appropriate and complete solution
Planners should identify the exact nature and scope of the problem
Mistakes at this early stage are more costly than anywhere else
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
If you dont know where youre going, youll never get there
What level of service do we want? How much risk will we accept? What limits or constrains our action?
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
A companys corporate mission statement may provide strategic insight for planning guidelines
To be be the premium regional provider of electric power To provide economic electric power for the region To maximize return on equity To maximize return on investment
New facilities will be located inside the county boundary Expansion plans must include targeted DSM All new feeder construction must be 15-kV class
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H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
Objectively identify all options available to address the problem Many planning mistakes occur here
Pre-conceived idea of what to do Failing to consider full range of the alternatives Too short a planning horizon, leads to reduced options and higher cost
Do nothing should always be an alternative Use judgment to eliminate alternatives prior to evaluation
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
E.g. voltage drop, loading, protection, clearances, esthetic impact, costs, flexibility, O&M, risk/liability
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
Why plan? Because of lead time Lead time is the time it takes to prepare, build, and install facilities Sets the minimum acceptable planning period
If it takes five years to plan, engineer, and build a new station and transmission line, then you must plan at least five years ahead
Planners have no choice but to plan out into the future as long as the lead time
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
T&D Level Lead Time (yrs) Generation 13 EHV Transmission 9 Transmission 8 Sub-transmission 7 Substation 6 Feeder 3 Lateral 0.5 Service 0.1
Effective, minimum-cost planning means looking far enough ahead to allow for all reasonable alternatives, not just the one with the shortest lead time
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Short Range Planning: Decisions and Commitments Purpose is to make sure that the system can continue to serve load while meeting standards Driven by lead time requirements Must identify purchases and commitments that must be made now for future standard service
Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
Product of process is a series of decisions and specifications for future changes to the system
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
Project
Project
Project
Project
Compares existing capability to future needs and initiates projects to address the shortfall
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
In 5 years projected growth of annual peak load and reliability requirements for Eastside substation will exceed its maximum 2-hour capacity. Something has to be done by five years from now to solve the problem Planning
Identify alternatives Determine which will solve the problem Pick one and do it in time!
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
To determine if short-range solutions have lasting value Can we get by without doing it?
Purpose is to assure that short-range decisions have lasting value over the equipment life and contribute to minimum cost system
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
Long-range horizon is definition of future for evaluation of short-range planning decisions Identification of mismatches between T&D levels coordination plan Forecast long-range budget needs Identification of corporate long-term direction and strategy A basis for evaluation of new ideas or changes in procedure at a macro level
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
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H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
Only needs enough detail to allow evaluation of economics and fit of short-range plans Utility may have more than one long range plans
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Uncertainty and Multi-Scenario Planning Identify uncertain events or occurrences that may impact future supply/demand Produce a forecast and a plan for each Compare plans to see how needs and spending differ Compare short-range project plans to each long-range scenario plan Try to make short-range decisions that are only needed in all future outcomes
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
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Multi-Scenario Planning
Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
+ 12 years
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H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Multiple Scenario Forecast Example 1. Current (1993) load for an American city 2. Base T&D forecast 20 years into future 3. Major theme park in Southwest in 5 years 4. Major theme park in Northeast in 5 years
Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
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H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Cannot Use Probabilistic Approach at Forecast Level Probability-weighted sum of all 3 forecasts Has no probability of developing Planning for it spreads system capacity over too much area
Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
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Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
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Load Forecasting
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Load changes over time, in magnitude as well as location Load growth on small area basis, is different than at a system level
20
10
10
20 yrs
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Answer three key questions that define T&D planning: When? Where? What?
Timing: project annual figures over time slices (1, 5, 10, 20 yrs) into the future, 3 to 5 times the lead time Location: forecast load growth for small areas (less than 1/10th size of service area) Quantities: project peak demand (kW) at every locality, customer type, and energy (kWh)
Coordinate with corporate forecast, marketing plan, customer-level planning (DSM, etc.), enduse analysis of load/customer value
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
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Trending: trend historical feeder or substation peaks, multiple regression curve-fit, extrapolation
Load growth not linear, cannot trend vacant lots and load transfers?
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Reliability Concepts
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What is Reliability?
The extent to which an experiment, test, or measuring procedure yields the same results on repeated trials
A system (or person) is reliable if it (or he/she) can be trusted to perform to a required standard Required standard implies that there is a metric that defines levels of reliability
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System Reliability?
A system is a combination of components connected in series and/or in parallel The reliability of the system depends on the component reliability and the connectivity Component reliability is defined by
Component
2, r 2 1, r 1 4, r 4
3, r 3 6, r6 5, r 5
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, r
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1, r1
1 = 2 = 0.1 failures/yr
r1 = r2 = 5 hrs/failures
Series Components
System mean outage duration (hrs/failure), 1r1 + 2 r2 r (.1)(5) + (.1)(5) rs = = = =5 1 + 2 0.1 + 0.1
U s = s rs = (0.2)(5) = 1
105
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.995
.875
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1 = 2 = 0.1 failures/yr
r1 = r2 = 5 hrs/failure
Parallel Components
p =
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.99
.90
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Distribution Reliability
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F4 F3 F2 F1
Feeder Feeder
subst at ion
Feeder
Feeder
T ransformer
T ransformer T ransformer
T ransformer
NP
NP
NP
NP
Secondary Bus
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Line/cable sections and busbars Transformers and generators s Protection and sectionalizing devices Regulators, capacitors, reactors Anything that directly or indirectly disrupts the flow of power
CB
Reliability is characterized by the ability of the system to deliver power to the end-customer
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A failure or outage occurs when equipment is not in service An interruption occurs when insufficient equipment exists to serve the customer Outages cause interruptions
Frequency Duration
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Function of engineering factors: equipment selection, condition, layout, protection design, etc.
Function of operating factors: switching schemes, repair crews, speed in trouble-shooting, etc.
In some cases, a short (15 second) interruption can be nearly as serious as a longer interruption, e.g. computers, robotic control, synchronous motors In other cases, short interruptions create few problems
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Sags
Reliability Availability
Swells
n Su Flicker tio sta p Interruption Duration ine ru r nte cy Fr d In I eq ter ry uen ue ru nta req nc pt e ion y om F M Noise Harmonic Distortion
Transients
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Open Circuit: a discontinuity that interrupts load current without causing fault current to flow Fault: a short circuit; can be temporary or permanent in nature
Temporary Fault a fault that will clear if allowed to deionize, e.g. insulator flashover due to lightning strike Permanent Fault a fault that must be repaired by a crew or one that will eventually burn clear (self-clearing)
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Momentary Interruption: de-energizing a customer for less than a few minutes (usually 5) Momentary Interruption Event: one or more momentary interruptions within a several minute time interval, e.g. multiple reclosing on a fault Sustained Interruption: de-energizing a customer for more than a few minutes (usually 5). Most sustained interruptions result from open circuits and faults.
116
Nines of Availability
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Measuring Reliability
Reliability indices measure reliability as a function of interruption frequency and duration Purpose of indices
Monitor status: baseline or point of reference Measure improvement over time Benchmarking (compare and contrast) Documentation Planning and decision-making Input to higher-level processes
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Reliability Indices
Customer-based
SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI, ASAI, CAIFI, CTAIDI, MAIFI, MAIFIE, CEMIn, CEMSMIn
Load-based
Power quality-based
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* As of August 2001
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C. A. Warren and M. J. Adams, Reliability on the Regulatory Horizon, IEEE T&D Expo, Atlanta, GA, October 2001
* As of February 2003
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From the Energy Information Agency, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/chg_str/restructure.pdf
ASAI =
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Connected kVA Hours Interrupted ASIDI = hrs/yr Total Connected kVA Served
Total Number of Customer Critical Voltage Sags /yr SARFI = Total Number of Customers Served
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Use of Indices
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
I I ID SA C DI AI I SA A F SI A I
F AI S
I ID AS
Index
I IF A M
e th O
r C
I D AI T C
I IF A
With so many utilities using the same indices, it is natural that comparisons will be made
IEEE Working Group on System Design, A Survey of Distribution Reliability Measurement Practices in the US, IEEE Trans. On Pwr. Del., Vol. 14, No. 1, Jan. 1999
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All Respondents SAIDI All SAIFI IEEE SAIFI All CAIDI IEEE CAIDI All 119.45 0.94 1.29 71.04 84.77 223.68 1.23 1.59 93.69 146.73 400.24 1.50 2.14 121.77 211.73 Q4 2352.29 3.15 5.53 424.74 1154.85
400
Data for 95 companies throughout the US & Canada, from rural electric co-ops to IOUs.
300
Q3 Q2
100
Q1
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Urban Systems Finland Sweden Denmark Italy Netherlands Rural Systems Finland Sweden Denmark Italy Netherlands Overall Norway United States United Kingdom Netherlands
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1 2 3 4 5 6
Service Area Dense urban area Urban/suburban Suburban & rural Urban & rural Mild Rural, mountainous Rural, mountainous
Climate Hot summers, bitter winters Hot nearly year round High isokeuranic (lightning) year round Mild seasons Bitter winters
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35
30
25
20
15
% of Utility Responses
10 6%
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Utilities are not required to include storms and major events in reliability index calculations Definition of major event day varies with utility/state
State 1
Major Storms excluded if 15% of customers served are interrupted over the duration of the event.
State 2
A Major Storm is a period of adverse weather during which service interruptions affect at least 10 percent of the customers in an operating area and/or result in customers being without electric service for durations of at least 24 hours.
State 3
It was the result of a major weather event which caused more than 10% or a district or total company customers to be without service IEEE Working Group on System Design, Measuring Performance Of Electric Power 131 GE Energy 2007 at a given time. Distribution Systems IEEE Std. 1366-2003, Presented at the NARUC Staff
Subcommittee on Electric Reliability, Washington, DC, February 13, 2005
225
200
175
Method 1 Method 2 Method 3
150
125
SAIDI (min)
100
75
50
25 1999 2000
Year
0 1997
1998
2001
2002
2003
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Allows consistent definition of major event across utilities based on historical performance
1.
2.
3. 4.
5.
6. 7.
Collect values of daily SAIDI for five sequential years ending on the last day of the last complete reporting period. If fewer than five years of historical data are available, use all available historical data If any day in the data set has a value of zero for SAIDI, do not include that day in the analysis. Take the natural logarithm (ln) of each daily SAIDI value in the data set. Find (alpha), the average of the logarithms (also known as the log-average) of the data set. Find (beta), the standard deviation of the logarithms (also known as the logstandard deviation) of the data set. Compute the major event day threshold, TMED, using the equation: TMED = e( +2.5 ) Any day with daily SAIDI greater than the threshold All Sustained Interruptions value TMED that occurs during the subsequent Recommend that targets be set on Day-to-Day reporting period is classified as a major event day. Operations.
Including: Transmission, Planned, Etc.
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IEEE Working Group on System Design, Measuring Performance Of Electric Power Distribution Systems IEEE Std. 1366-2003, Presented at the NARUC Staff Subcommittee on Electric Reliability, Washington, DC, February 13, 2005
Day-to-Day Operations
133
BC
WA
OR WY
ID
NV
MA,CT,RI VA NC MD,DE,NJ
CA
FL
Alaska Hawaii
Adopted MED Reliability Standards being considered
IEEE Working Group on System Design, Measuring Performance Of Electric Power 134 Distribution Systems IEEE Std. 1366-2003, Presented at the NARUC Staff Subcommittee on Electric Reliability, Washington, DC, February 13, 2005
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Benchmarking Data
IEEE 1366-2003
addresses data basis issues by clearly defining the rules It DOES NOT address the data collection issues
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Reliability Targets
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Reliability Targets
Reliability targets are set internally or by state regulators Define goals for engineering and operations
Targets drive capital and O&M spending on improvement projects and additional resources
1. Arbitrary management chooses targets 2. Survey customer survey of preferences 3. Historical comparison to previous years 4. Value-based analysis of total societal impact
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Value-Based Planning
50000
30000
Cost ($/cust/yr)
20000
ost tal C To
10000
er C Custom ost
Utilit y Cost
0 0 1
2 SAIDI (hr/yr)
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Minimum (constraint) and objective (goal) targets for a combination indices (SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI, etc.)
Broad mandate to improve reliability of deficient areas, e.g. bottom 10% of feeders or 10 worse feeders
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Performance-Based Rates
Regulatory statutes that reward utilities for good reliability and penalize them for poor performance
Performance usually based on SAIDI, SAIFI A common method is to have a dead zone
Max. Penalty
120
100
Max. Bonus
80
$1,000,000s
60
40
20
Dead Zone
1 2 SAIDI 3 4 5
Frequently, utilities are rewarded or penalized via the rate case process
140
R. E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability, 2002 Marcel Dekker
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The total annual cost of power interruptions in the US is estimated to be $79 billion. The majority of this cost is attributed to commercial and industrial customers, and is mostly caused by momentary outages.
Kristina Hamachi LaCommare and Joseph H. Eto, "Understanding the Cost of Power Interruptions to U.S. Electricity Consumers," http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMP/EMP-pubs.html
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Computers crash Electronics malfunction Motors drop out Processes ruined Tools broken Scrap
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EPRI estimates that nine-nines availability is necessary for 0.6% of the population containing critical loads that need to be served.
Customer/process type
Residential, semiconductor plant, refrigeration warehouse, summer beach house, movie theater, biotech research lab
Customer size Length of interruption Time of day, day of week, month of year Advance warning GE Energy 2007
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50
l rci a me om
40
C
30
ial u str I nd
20
10
Res identia l
0 0 1 2 3 4
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Data from a University of Saskatchewan Survey on Customer Interruption Costs
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Data from a University of Saskatchewan Survey on Customer Interruption Costs
Cost of poor reliability is a driver for implementation of improvement projects and devices
Feature Availability
Subject to transmission faults Subject to transmission faults
Cost
Duration
Feeder availability Feeder availability Duration of batteries
Duration of fuel
Battery disposal
Maintenance Requirements
No moving parts
Moving parts
Batteries
Transfer Speed
< 4 ms None
10 - 30 s During synchronization
Mechanical bypass
Closed to load
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High Medium Low None
148
Causes of Interruptions
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Equipment failures
Transformers
Underground cable
Overhead lines
Circuit breakers
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Animals
Severe weather
Wind storms, lightning storms, heat, ice storms, waves, earthquakes, fire
Trees Humans
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60
50
40
30
20
10
Equipment failures are always a top cause and can be mitigated by quality purchase and proper installation and maintenance
Lightning Animals Overloads Traffic Accidents Dig-ins
Equipment Failures
Trees
0.45 5 kV 15 kV 25 kV
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
Equipment Failures
In general, the higher the voltage the more likely there will be interruptions on overhead systems due to equipment failures, lightning, trees and animals
R. E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability, 2002 Marcel Dekker J. J. Burke, Hard to Find Information About Distribution Systems, Jan. 2005
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Assessing Reliability
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Assessing Reliability
Historical: compute reliability indices using archived data on outages and interruptions
Can determine the current system performance May (carefully) be used to project future performance Cannot be used for multiple-scenario analysis
Predictive: assess reliability of system using a Connectivity model with component reliability data
Usually calibrated using historical reliability indices Historical interruption data may be used to represent component reliability GE Energy 2007 Excellent for what-if scenarios; project development
154
Connectivity describes the manner in which distribution components interact to form the system
Sources include system maps, one-line diagrams, GIS databases and CAD files
Component data describes the failure, repair and remedial characteristics of the individual system components
Sources include utility databases and industry sources such as IEEE Gold Book, papers, and publications
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Connectivity Model A functionally accurate description of the topographical arrangement is critical to capturing the diversity of supply, equipment redundancies, remedial actions and mitigating measures.
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Permanent failure rate the number of times that a component will experience a permanent fault in a given year Temporary failure rate the number of times that a component will experience a temporary fault (one that can be cleared by de-energizing the line) in a given year Mean time to repair the average time to repair a component once it has failed Mean time to switch the average time to perform switching actions to restore customers after a fault (or isolate the fault) following the action of protective devices
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Failure Rate
Wear-Out Period
Time
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Geograpahically-Based Tools Cymdist, Cyme-CGI ReliNet (CadPad), ABB Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No
SynerGEE, Advantica-Stoner
Windmil, Milsoft
http://cyme.cognicase-hosting.com/products/cymdist/ http://www.abb.us/ http://www.advantica.biz/stoner_software/synergee_electric/ default.htm http://www.milsoft.com/milsoft/web.nsf/pages/reliability_an alysis_overview?open http://www.edsa.com/ http://www.etap.com/reliability.htm http://www.skm.com/products/index.htm http://www.shawgrp.com/PTI/software/adept/index.cfm
One-Line-Diagram-Based Tools Advanced Power System Reliability, EDSA ETAP Powerstation, OTI Power Tools for Windows, SKM PSS/Adept, PTI Block-Diagram-Based Tools AvSim, Isograph Software BlockSim, ReliaSoft CARE, BQR Reliability Engineering ENRiCO, Clockwork Solutions MEADEP, SoHaR
RAM, Reilass
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Improving Reliability
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Design: focus on system topology, connectivity and switching possibilities Operation: focus on aspects of equipment maintenance, inspection and repair
Effective reliability improvement strategies are best implemented as part of a distribution plan
Incorporates relevant goals and criteria Thorough system analysis is performed Cost and historical performance are considered
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SA (count = 3) S
SB (count = 2) S
R R
Line recloser
Alternatively, keep fuse saving and use automative seectionalizers in areas where fuses cannot coordinate
Line reclosers
R
R R Overhead Underground Overhead
S S
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R. E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability, 2002 Marcel Dekker
162
Sectionalizing switches
Improve reliability by allowing faults to be isolated and customer service to be restored while fault is repaired
Automation
Monitoring and control equipment to allow for faster switching, fault location and restoration Automating a few key switches gives great benefit, but there is diminishing marginal returns Greater impact on SAIDI than SAIFI
163
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System configuration
System voltage
Higher voltage - more susceptible to lightning, tree, animal events, more exposure
Lower voltage - smaller feeders interrupt fewer customers when they go out (4 kV generally more reliable than 34.5 kV)
166
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167