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ORDER of PRESENTATION
Maldives Indonesia Thailand Jordan Vietnam Tonga Bahamas Nepal Guyana Philippines Mongolia Lai Peop Dem Reo Australia Albania Bangladesh New Zealand Lesotho Ghana Mauritius Malaysia Seychelles Barbados Kenya Greece Nethelands Iran Portugal Latvia Kyrgystan Ethiopia Israel Egypt Jamaica

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation to Impacts

Working Group II (WGII) addresses vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation related to climate Priority is on ecological systems, socioeconomic sectors, and human health, both positive and negative

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Expected Impacts
Impacts can be expected in ocean circulation; sea level; the water cycle; carbon and nutrient cycles; air quality; the productivity and structure of natural ecosystems; the productivity of agricultural, grazing, and timber lands; and the geographic distribution, behavior, abundance, and survival of plant and animal species, including vectors and hosts of human disease.

Methods and Tools used in Assessments

Analogs Using Indicator Species Anticipating Effects Using models and scenarios over range of scales Integrated assessment using all tools; expert judgement included Costing and Valuation

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Approaches to forecasting the likely impacts of climate change

paleological, archaeological, or historical studies of how climate changes and climate variations in the past have affected human and/or natural systems forecasting by analogy studies of impact of present day climate and climate variability use of models expert judgement

Scenarios
Socio-economic, Land Use, and Environmental Sea-Level Rise Climate (eg. GCMs) Scenarios of the 21st Century

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21st Century Scenario

Combined Scenarios
Climate Scenario

Socio-economic Scenario

Current Climate Current Society

Future Climate Current Society

Current Climate Future Society Future Society

Current Climate

Future Climate Future Society

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Ways of Adapting
Bear losses Share losses Modify the threat Prevent effects Change use Change location (Evacuation) Research Educate, inform and encourage behavioral change

Adaptation Measures
Autonomous
is the ongoing implementation of existing knowledge and technology in response to the changes in climate experienced

Planned
is the increase in adaptive capacity by mobilising institutions and policies to establish or strengthen conditions favourable for effective adaptation and investment in new technologies and infrastructure.

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Climate Change Impacts on Specific Sectors Water Resources Agriculture Forests

Expected Impacts on Water Resources

Changes in streamflow volumes; increases and decreases
shifts in peak streamflow from spring toward winter due to glacier retreat, and rain (rather than snow fall) in winter

Water quality would generally be degraded by higher water temp. linked to rates of biogeochemical processes and compounded by lower dissolved oxygen Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions Irrigation demands would increase due to higher evapo-transpiration Stresses on regions to satisfy potable water needs

Management features of any watershed could compound the impacts of climate on water availability and water quality and the hydrologic cycle in general

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Adaptations in Water sector

SUPPLY SIDE Increasing storage capacity by building reservoirs and dams Desalination of sea water Expansion of rain-water storage Removal of invasive non-native vegetation from riparian areas Water transfer

Adaptations in Water Sector

DEMAND SIDE Reduction in water demand for irrigation by changing the cropping calendar, crop mix, irrigation method, and area planted Reduction in water demand for irrigation by importing agricultural products Promotion of indigenous practices for sustainable water use Expanded use of water markets to reallocate water to highly valued uses Expanded use of economic incentives including metering and pricing to encourage water conservation

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Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

Multiple pressures are being exerted on the agriculture sector, including the need to meet rising demand for food and fiber, resource degradation, and a variety of environmental changes, and climate change is likely to interact with them Climate change will impact agriculture by causing damage and gain at scales ranging from individual plants or animals to global trade networks. A few degrees of projected warming will lead to general increases in temperate crop yields, with some regional variation At larger amounts of projected warming, most temperate crop yield responses become generally negative but autonomous agronomic adaptation ameliorates temperate crop yield loss and improves gain in most cases

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

In the tropics, where some crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance and where dryland agriculture predominates, yields would decrease generally with even minimal changes in temperature; where there is a large decrease in rainfall, crop yields would be even more adversely affected (medium confidence). With autonomous agronomic adaptation, it is established with medium confidence that crop yields in the tropics tend to be less adversely affected by climate change than without adaptation, but they still tend to remain below baseline levels.

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Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

Degradation of natural resources, specifically Soil and Water resources, is emerging as one of the major challenges for global agriculture.
It is induced via erosion, chemical depletion, water saturation, and solute accumulation. It is established with high confidence that those processes are likely to be intensified by adverse changes in temperature and precipitation.

Land use and management have been shown to have a greater impact on soil conditions than the indirect effect of climate change; thus, adaptation has the potential to significantly mitigate these impacts.

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

Special role of Soil Organic Matter Climate change adaptation for agricultural cropping systems requires a higher resilience against both excess of water (due to high intensity rainfall) and lack of water (due to extended drought periods). A key element to respond to both problems is soil organic matter, which improves and stabilizes the soil structure so that the soils can absorb higher amounts of water without causing surface run off, which could result in soil erosion and, further downstream, in flooding. Soil organic matter also improves the water absorption capacity of the soil for during extended drought.

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Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

The response of crop yields to climate change varies widely, depending on the species, cultivar, soil conditions, treatment of CO2 direct effects, and other locational factors At the plant or field scale, climate change is likely to interact with rising CO2 concentrations and other environmental changes to affect crop and animal physiology. Advances in knowledge of CO2 effects on crop and forage plants establish convincingly, although incompletely, that it is no longer useful to examine the impacts of climate change absent their interactions with rising atmospheric CO2
Interactions with temperature, water availability, atmospheric chemistry, and with soils

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

Impacts on Livestock
Farm animals are affected by climate directly and indirectly. Direct effects involve heat exchanges between the animal and its environment that are linked to air temperature, humidity, windspeed, and thermal radiation. These linkages influence animal performance (e.g., growth, milk and wool production, reproduction), health, and well-being. Indirect effects include climatic influences on quantity and quality of feedstuffs such as pastures, forages, and grain and the severity and distribution of livestock diseases and parasites. Genetic variation, life stage, and nutritional status also influence the level of vulnerability to potential environmental stresses.

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Summary of Impacts
Can be negative and positive Yield increases in temperate regions with moderate temp increases Yield decreases in tropics Degradation of Soil and Water resources emerges as one of the major challenges for global agriculture.
Degradative processes acting on soils will be compounded by climate change but Land Use and Management have a greater impact on soil conditions than climate change Special role of organic matter in soils

Impacts on income in agriculture to be positive in more developed countries but less so or even negative in poorer countries CO2 effects and interactions with other factors Interactions between climate change and other factors Impacts on livestock

Autonomous Adaptations in Agriculture

altering inputs such as varieties and/or species to those with more appropriate thermal time and vernalization requirements and/or with increased resistance to heat shock and drought, altering fertilizer rates to maintain grain or fruit quality consistent with the climate and altering amounts and timing of irrigation and other water management practices wider use of technologies to harvest water, conserve soil moisture (e.g., crop residue retention) and to use water more effectively in areas with rainfall decreases water management to prevent water-logging, erosion and nutrient leaching in areas with rainfall increases

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Autonomous Adaptations in Agriculture

altering the timing or location of cropping activities diversifying income by integrating other farming activities such as livestock raising improving the effectiveness of pest, disease and weed management practices through wider use of integrated pest and pathogen management, development and use of varieties and species resistant to pests and diseases, maintaining or improving quarantine capabilities, and sentinel monitoring programs using seasonal climate forecasting to reduce production risk.

Autonomous Adaptations in Agriculture

Adaptations in field-based livestock include
matching stocking rates with pasture production rotating pastures modifying grazing times altering forage and animal species/breeds altering the integration of mixed livestock/crop systems, including the use of adapted forage crops, re-assessing fertiliser applications, ensuring adequate water supplies and using supplementary feeds and concentrates

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Planned Adaptations
Changing management practice requires managers to be convinced that the climate changes are real and are likely to continue and that the projected changes will significantly impact on their enterprise. Where the existing technical options are inadequate to respond, investment in new technical or management options may be required
improved crop, forage, livestock, forest and fisheries germplasm, including via biotechnology or old technologies revived in response to the new conditions.

Planned Adaptations
Where there are major land use changes, industry location changes and migration, there may be a role for governments to support these transitions via direct financial and material support, creating alternative livelihood options. These include
Reduced dependence on agriculture, supporting community partnerships in developing food and forage banks, enhancing capacity to develop social capital and share information, providing food aid and employment to the more vulnerable and developing contingency plans. Effective planning for and management of such transitions may also result in less habitat loss, less risk of carbon loss and also lower environmental costs such as soil degradation, siltation and reduced biodiversity. Developing new infrastructure, policies and institutions to support the new management and land use arrangements by addressing climate change in development programs Enhanced investment in irrigation infrastructure and efficient water use technologies Ensuring appropriate transport and storage infrastructure Revising land tenure arrangements, including attention to well-defined property rights Establishment of accessible, efficiently functioning markets for products and inputs and for financial services, including insurance.

Developing the capacity to make continuing adjustments and improvements in adaptation by understanding what is working, what is not and why, via targeted monitoring of adaptations to climate change and their costs and effects.

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Agriculture and Climate Change in SIDS

SIDS are located across the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and also in the Caribbean Sea mainly in tropical and sub-tropical oceans. Their climate is influenced strongly by ocean-atmosphere interactions which often manifest themselves in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and cyclones. These events are associated with storm surges, coral bleaching, inundation of land, and erosion (with resulting high-cost damages to socio-economic and cultural infrastructure). Subsistence agricultural production is vital to the economies, nutritional status, and social well-being of small islands particularly the small, low-lying, atoll states where food security is a major concern.
The occurrence of extreme weather events usually causes irreparable damage to food crops and other livelihood material on which small island populations depend. Extended droughts often cause damage to agricultural crops resulting in low exports and high imports, the latter usually resulting in a huge burden on foreign exchange earnings.

Agriculture and Climate Change in SIDS

Climate change could precipitate heat stress, changes in soil moisture and temperature, evapo-transpiration, and rainfall that would affect the growth of some crops and vegetables.
The consequences of such changes for agriculture are likely to be more severe in areas that already are under stressfor example, water-scarce islands. Crop agriculture also can be affected by tropical cyclones and other extreme events, such as floods and droughts.

Much of the prime agricultural land is located on the coastal plains which are threatened by sea-level rise. In the Caribbean, analysis of data from the late 1950s to 2000 has shown that the number of very warm days and nights is increasing dramatically and the number of very cool days and nights are decreasing, while the extreme inter-annual temperature range is decreasing.

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Agriculture and Climate Change in SIDS

The Caribbean Sea has warmed by 1.5C over the last century. The maximum number of consecutive dry days is decreasing and the number of heavy rainfall events is increasing. However, there is a trend towards an overall decrease in precipitation, with prolonged dry spells having occurred over the last few decades. In the Caribbean, extreme events (e.g. drought) may become more frequent with global warming, and hurricane intensity could increase. The climate of small islands is strongly affected by the ENSO phenomenon; with climate change ENSO-like patterns are projected to become more frequent. For example, in the Caribbean the El Nio condition is associated with a suppressed hurricane season, whereas the La Nina events create conditions more favorable for Atlantic hurricanes.

Climate Change and Adaptation by Forests

Climate change adaptation strategies for the forest management sector should be based on the application of vulnerability assessment or risk management concepts. A planning framework for facilitating adaptation in forestry must address biophysical and socio-economic impacts, and will include policy and institutional considerations. Current and future vulnerabilities of forests to climate change must be assessed to guide the development of risk management strategies that include actions needed now and in the future to aid responses to climate changes.

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Climate Change and Adaptation by Forests

Adaptation needs to reduce current vulnerability to climate change and speed recovery after disturbance in a changed climate. The adaptation plan should include monitoring of the state of the forest to detect change. Many forest ecosystems and species will have to adapt autonomously because management can only influence the timing and direction of forest adaptation at selected locations. In general, society will have to adjust to however forests adapt.

Autonomous Adaptations
Strategies suggested for planted forests include
Changes in management intensity Changes in hardwood/softwood species mix, timber growth and harvesting patterns within and between regions Modifications to rotation periods Salvaging dead timber Shifting to species or areas more productive under the new climatic conditions Landscape planning to minimise fire and insect damage, adjusting to altered wood size and quality, and adjusting fire-management systems.

Specific strategies to control insect damage can include

prescribed burning to reduce forest vulnerability to increased insect outbreaks non-chemical insect control and adjusting harvesting schedules, so that those stands most vulnerable to insect defoliation can be harvested preferentially.

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Planned Adaptations
From a policy position many are similar to those listed under adaptations in agriculture

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