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Theres something about a new year that makes us look to the future with an open mind. But more often than not, our view is restricted by the guide rails of conventional thinking. Major events or trends, like volatile global markets or leaps in technology, exert a particularly strong influence. In the following article, several BCG partners offer their own take on what will happen in 2012, using conventional wisdom as a foil.
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/growth_innovation_year_ahead/print 14-02-2012
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Managing Talent in the Public Service: Why Governments Should Aim to Rival the Private Sector
The Conventional View: Attracting the best and the brightest to government jobs is a challenge. Who would want to work for an organization thats generally regarded as cumbersome, inefficient, and behind the times (https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/commentary/public_sector_it_strategy_public_service_how_public_wants_it/)? The problem, which is rooted in how governments operate, is intractable. And really, why should governments invest in talent when there is so much else that needs to be fixed
(https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/videos/management_two_speed_economy_private_equity_wolf_martin_europes_sovereign_debt_crisis_and_global_ec My View: An environment where private-sector companies headhunt the top talent from government departments, where the demand for government jobs exceeds the supply, and where governments deliver high-quality services in a timely and efficient manner (https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/public_sector_transformation_citizens_are_you_being_served/) is not out of reach. In fact, its already a reality in places like Singapore, where the public sector attracts the best talent and is widely regarded as a rewarding place to work. The governments investment in its employees is the envy of some private-sector companiespublic-sector employees are measured and rewarded accordingly, incentivized through opportunities, and offered continual and varied training. In most countries, however, lackluster service standards have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The public has low expectations for the quality of government services, and governments have little incentive to lift their game in terms of both improving processes and changing how they recruit and manage talent. The net effect is a continued decline in service quality and expectations. Breaking this cycle is not as challenging as it may seem, and the benefits can be quickly realized. Governments need to start by raising their own expectationsabout the services they can provide and the quality of the people they can attractand then investing to build talent. Is it realistic to think this can happen in 2012? In these trying times, governments require high-quality talent, from the senior policymakers wrestling with a volatile global economy to the frontline employees delivering crucial welfare, security, or enforcement services. With many countries looking to pare back the number of government employees, having a lean but high-quality workforce has arguably never been more importantits one way to do more with less. Larry Kamener, senior partner and managing director and global leader of BCGs Public Sector practice
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/growth_innovation_year_ahead/print 14-02-2012
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Global Health: Maintaining Investments in the Developing World Will Save Money in the Long Run
The Conventional View: With Europe in the midst of a sovereign-debt crisis and the U.S. struggling to keep its recovery on track, fiscal prudence dictates that wealthy nations pare back their investments in fighting diseases in the developing world. According to a recent report (http://policycures.org/downloads/g-finder_2011.pdf), eight of the top 12 government funders cut their investments in neglected disease R&D in 2010. Overall, there has been a $136 million drop in global-health R&D funding in the last year for diseases such HIV/AIDS, malaria, pneumonia, and meningitis. On the delivery side, governments are the primary contributors of funding to roll out lifesaving interventions such as medicines and mosquito nets. There are indications that this funding is being cut as well. Our View: Cutting disease-fighting investments will lead to significantly higher global costs in the long run. The tradeoff, even solely in financial terms, is simply not worth making. Over the last several decades, the progress made in the fight against disease has been remarkable. In the the case of diseases such as polio and malaria (https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/commentary/global_health_public_sector_malaria_responding_to_urgent_threat_of_drug_resistance/), we have reached a point where eradication is a realistic goal. When a disease is so tightly controlled, trimming back funding may not seem like a drastic step. But the costs of allowing a disease to regain strength are significant, both in dollars and in human suffering. In Rwanda, failure to supply bed nets that protect users from mosquitoes led to a doubling of malaria cases between 2008 and 2009, according to the Rwandan Ministry of Health (http://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/pdf/e2pi-maintaining-the-gains-country-briefs.pdf). This almost wiped out the previous three years progress in reducing cases through control efforts. To make up lost ground, malaria-control costs in Rwanda tripled the next year to over $70 millionand this excludes the cost of treating additional patients, not to mention the untold human suffering. Cutting back on R&D can have a significant impact as well, given that innovative approaches to fighting disease are often far more costeffective than any existing treatments. For example, biologically modifying mosquitoes so they cannot carry and transmit a disease like dengue would be cost saving relative to control efforts. Traditional dengue-vector control in a large country like Brazil could cost as much as $13 billion over 20 years, while BCG modeling suggests that biological modification, if successful, would cost $800 million over the same periodand could have the potential to eliminate the disease. Eradication of developing-world disease requires global coordination and cooperation, both in funding and in political will. Cutting investment now will cost the world more in the long run, in addition to increasing the toll of human suffering and lives lost. Wendy Woods, Sarah Cairns-Smith, and Andrew Rodriguez, partners and managing directors
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/growth_innovation_year_ahead/print 14-02-2012