Guidelines EQ

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
CENTRAL WATER COMMISSION
GUIDELINESFORPREPARATIONANDSUBMISSION
OF
SITESPECIFICSEISMICSTUDYREPORTOFRIVERVALLEYPROJECT
TO
NATIONALCOMMITTEEONSEISMICDESIGNPARAMETERS
SecretariatofNationalCommitteeonSeismicDesignParameters
FE&SADirectorate,712(S),SewaBhawan,R.K.Puram
NewDelhi110605
(October2011)
NCSDPGuidelines:2011
CentralWaterCommission
FOREWORD
Ministry of Water Resources had constituted a high level interdisciplinary official body, the
National Committee on Seismic Design Parameters (NCSDP) for River Valley Projects in 1991
(formerly known as Standing Committee) to recommend the site specific design seismic
parameters for design of dams and other appurtenant structures of the river valley projects. The
site specific reports for determination of seismic parameters involve estimation of seismic
parameters either using the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) method or the
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. Since both the approaches have their own
strengths and weaknesses, they are required to be used in combination to arrive at the most
appropriate engineering decisions. It may thus be advisable to provide the results from both the
approaches and the Committee may take a view in every particular case. Therefore, an attempt
has been made to formulate a document: Guidelines for Preparation and Submission of Site
SpecificSeismicStudyReporttoNationalCommitteeonSeismicDesignParameters(NCSDP)for
RiverValleyProjects,tohaveingeneral,auniformapproachbydifferentexpertorganizationsfor
carryingoutsitespecificseismicstudies.Astheinputdataontectonicfeatures,pastseismicityand
strong ground motion characteristics required for such studies are scanty in many cases, these
guidelinesshallgoalongwaytoovercometheselimitationstilltherequiredinformationbecomes
availableintimestocome.
I express my sincere thanks to all the present and ExMembers of NCSDP, officers from CWPRS,
Pune, IIT, Roorkee and CWC for their invaluable contribution and cooperation in helping CWC to
preparetheseguidelines.
For this meticulous work, I express my gratitude for sincere and untiring efforts made by Dr I D
Gupta,Director,CWPRS,Pune,DrHRWason,Prof&Head,DEE,IITR,DrMLSharma,ProfIITR,
ShriManishShrikhande,AssociateProf,IITR,ShriCSMathur,ChiefEngineer(DSO),CWC,DrBRK
Pillai, Director, CWC and Shri S S Bakshi, Director, CWC & Member Secretary NCSDP for
formulation oftheseGuidelines.Iamalsohappyto acknowledgethesupport andcooperationof
officersandstaffofFE&SADirectorate ofDamSafetyOrganization,Central WaterCommissionin
preparationofthisdocument.
IamsurethattheseGuidelineswillbehelpfulforthedesignsofvariousrivervalleyprojectsofthe
country.
NewDelhi
October,2011
Contents

PageNo.
Abbreviations
1.0 Scope 1
2.0 GeneralConceptsandGuidingPrinciples 2
3.0 DataRequirements 5
4.0 Methodology 7
5.0 RecommendationsonDesignApproach 17
6.0 SubmissionofStudyReportforNCSDPApproval 19
7.0 PresentationofStudyReportBeforeNCSDP 20
AnnexureA
IllustrativeExample:DSHAMethodforDevelopingTargetResponseSpectra
21
AnnexureB
IllustrativeExample:PSHAMethodforDevelopingTargetResponseSpectra
23
AnnexureC
ProformaforSubmissionofStudyReporttoNCSDP
27
AnnexureD
Bibliography
29

ABBREVIATIONS
DBE DesignBasisEarthquake
DSHA DeterministicSeismicHazardAnalysis
ICOLD InternationalCommitteeonLargeDams
IS IndianStandard
LET LocalEarthquakeTomography
MCE MaximumCredibleEarthquake
MCM MillionCubicMeters
MPa MegaPascal
MT Magnetotellurics
NCSDP NationalCommitteeonSeismicDesignParameters
NGA NextGenerationAttenuation
OBE OperatingBasisEarthquake
PGA PeakGroundAcceleration
PSHA ProbabilisticSeismicHazardAnalysis
Sa Spectralacceleration
SEE SafetyEvaluationEarthquake
SGM StrongGroundMotion
SSZ SeismicSourceZones
NCSDPGuidelines:2011 Page1
GUIDELINESFORPREPARATIONANDSUBMISSIONOF
SITESPECIFICSEISMICSTUDYREPORTOFRIVERVALLEYPROJECTTO
NATIONALCOMMITTEEONSEISMICDESIGNPARAMETERS

1.0 SCOPE
1.1
Theseguidelinesdealwiththepreparationofsitespecificseismicstudyreportofarivervalley
project and its submission to the National Committee on Seismic Design Parameters (NCSDP)
for necessary approval. The guidelines will help in estimation of parameters to be used in
seismic design, analysis and safety evaluation of new or existing dams and their appurtenant
structures. It is also expected that the guidelines will bring uniformity in site specific seismic
studiesbeingcarriedoutbydifferentexpertorganizations.
1.2
The site specific seismic studies need to be carried out and submitted for the approval of
NCSDP in respect of all such river valley project/dams that are classified under high or
extreme hazard potential categories. However, the uniform hazard potential categorization
criteria for dams in India are yet to be formulated and approved by the National Committee
on Dam Safety. Till such time the hazard categorization criteria is not in place, it will be
mandatory, for the large dams
1
that fall in seismic zone III, IV or V to get the approval of
NCSDP for site specific seismic studies for the assessment of design earthquake parameters.
However,fortheprojectsinseismiczoneII,theapprovalofNCSDPforthesitespecificseismic
studieswillbemandatoryforsuchdamsthataremorethan30metersinheight.
1.3
The basic provisions of the guidelines are applicable for the river valley projects and its
appurtenantsstructures,andalsoforthepowerhouseandsuchotherstructureslocatedinthe
vicinityofdamwhosefailurecanresultinanuncontrolledreleaseofwaterfromthereservoir.
Thetermdamusedhereshallmeananyartificialbarriermeanttoimpoundordivertwater,
and is inclusive of gravity dam, arch dam, embankment dam, barrage, weir, bund etc.
However, the provisions of the guidelines need not be applied in case of project canals and
canalstructures,andalsonotincaseoftemporarystructuressuchascofferdams.
1.4 There is no intrinsic difference in the methodology of selecting earthquake parameters for
design of new dams or safety evaluation of older dams. The rehabilitation of existing
structureswhicharedesignedonthebasisofstandardearthquakeprinciplesmaynotcallfor
fresh site specific seismic studies unless new seismic activity are reported in or around the
project sites. However, rehabilitation cases involving dams that are not investigated or
designedasperthemodernengineeringpracticesmayrequiresitespecificseismicstudies.
1.5
Thesitespecificseismicstudieswhicharenotmandatedasperaboveconditionsneednotbe
referredtoNCSDPunlessdirectedotherwisebyagovernmentorjudicialauthority.Inallsuch
exemptcases,theselectionofseismicdesignparameterswillcontinuetobegovernedbythe
IndianStandard1893(Part1)CriteriaForEarthquakeResistantDesignOfStructures
2
.

1
Alargedamisonemorethan15mhigh(abovethedeepestfoundationlevel)oronebetween10mand15mhighsatisfyingoneofthefollowing
criteria:(a)morethan500mlong;(b)reservoircapacityexceeding1x10
6
m
3
;(c)spillwaycapacityexceeding2000m
3
/sec
2
PendingfinalizationofParts2to5ofIS1893,provisionsofPartIwillbereadalongwiththerelevantclausesofIS1893:1984forstructures
otherthanbuildings

1.6
Fordesigncriteriaotherthanthoserelatedtoseismicdesignparameters,referencemaybe
madetotheIndianStandardIS1893(Part1)
3
.
2.0 GENERALCONCEPTSANDGUIDINGPRINCIPLES
The site specific seismic study for a river valley project requires an understanding of the
seismic scenario with regard to dam site, which includes geological setting of the area,
tectonic features and the history of earthquake occurrence in the region. The study enables
evaluation of design ground motion based on identifiable seismic source zones and
appropriategroundmotionattenuationlaws.Thegeneralconceptsandprinciplesusedinsuch
studyaregivenbelow.
2.1 SeismicSourceZones
For the assessment of design earthquake source parameters, it is necessary to identify the
probableSeismicSourceZones(SSZ)wherecatastrophicruptureswillgenerateearthquakesat
a site in prevailing tectonic environment, and adopt a pragmatic approach to evaluate the
likelymaximummagnitudeoftheeventwhichcouldoccurinfuture.
The delineated SSZ has to be considered to represent a zone of structural (tectonic) features
for occurrence of future earthquakes. The probable maximum seismic potential of the SSZ is
generallycontrolledbytheareaunderstrainbuildup,governingthelengthandbreadthofthe
seismicrupture,strengthanddeformationcharacteristicsoftherock,stressdrop,andfailure
mechanism. The seismic potential is rated in terms of the magnitude of the events, and the
maximummagnitudethuscorrespondstotheprobablemaximumruptureparameters.Ifthere
are two, three or more seismogenic features which can influence the ground motion at the
site,alltheseshouldbeconsideredaspotentialsourcesforthepurposeofanalysis.
The damage due to earthquake is a measure of the earthquake intensity at any site, and it
dependsonthedistanceandenergyreleasedfromtherupturewithinSSZ.
2.2 DesignEarthquakes
2.2.1 Thelargestbelievableearthquakethatcanreasonablybeexpectedtobegeneratedbyspecific
seismicsources(SSZ)inagivenseismotectonicframeworkisreferredtoasMaximumCredible
Earthquake(MCE)forthatSSZ.Thisisthelargesteventthatcouldbeexpectedtooccurinthe
regionunderthepresentlyknownseismotectonic environment;andthestructuralsystem,if
designed on this basis, would prove to be highly uneconomical. Therefore a Design Basis
Earthquake(DBE),whichwouldhaveareasonablechanceofoccurrenceduringthelifetimeof
thestructure,isalsoevaluatedkeepinginmindthedegreeofsafetyrequired.
2.2.2 Maximum magnitude of the events which could occur in a SSZ is evaluated from data on
earthquake occurrences. If data is available for sufficiently long duration, the highest
magnitude of the known event of past with suitable increment is generally adopted as the
maximum magnitude of MCE for that source. For regions with poor documentation of
historical events, an appropriate increment is added to the highest magnitude of the known
event for evaluation of MCE to account for the incompleteness of seismicity catalog The
deterministic approach for determination of MCE practically ignores the return period of the

3
ibid2

event. The MCE level of ground motion can also beevaluated using an appropriate approach
similartothatgiveninICOLDbulletin89(revised).
2.2.3 The DBE represents that level of ground motion at dam site at which only minor and easily
repairable damage is acceptable. Since the consequences of exceeding the DBE are mainly
economic, theoretically DBE shall be determined from an economic analysis. However, from
practical considerations the DBE is chosen for a certain return period of the ground motion.
For the occurrence of earthquake shaking not exceeding the DBE, the dam, appurtenant
structuresandequipmentshouldremainfunctionalanddamagesshouldbeeasilyrepairable.
2.2.4 IntherecentlyadoptedICOLDguidelines(SelectingSeismicParametersforLargeDams,2009),
theterminologiesofSafetyEvaluationEarthquake(SEE)andOperatingBasisEarthquake(OBE)
have been used in place of MCE and DBE. There is no intrinsic difference in the definition or
usage of OBE visvis DBE. However, the usage of SEE has been characteristically different
than MCE on account of application of a probabilistic approach wherein the choice of return
periodofeventislinkedwithhazardpotentialcategorizationofdam.ChangeoverfromMCE
DBE terminologies to SEEOBE terminologies is considered desirable; but, the same has been
deferredtilladoptionoftheuniformhazardpotentialcategorizationcriteriafordamsinIndia.
2.3 SeismicEvaluationParameters
2.3.1
Groundmotionatanysiteisinfluencedbysource,transmissionpathandlocalsiteconditions.
The factors responsible for source effect include fault type, rupture dimensions, mechanism
anddirection,focaldepth,stressdropandamountofenergyreleased.Thetransmissionpath
effectrelatestothegeometricspreadingandabsorptionofearthquakeenergyastheseismic
wave travel away from the source; and the responsible factors include rock type, regional
geological structures including surface faults and folding, crustal inhomogeneities, deep
alluvium, and directivity effects (direction of wave travel vs direction of fault rupture
propagation).Thelocalsiteeffectresultsfromthetopographicandsoilconditionspresentat
thesite.
Groundmotioncanbecharacterizedbypeakvaluesofexpectedacceleration,velocity,and/or
displacement.Ideally,allfactorsaffectinggroundmotionshouldbeconsideredforevaluation
ofthese parameters; butthisisnotpractical. Generally,onesourcefactor(magnitude)and a
single transmission path factor (distance) only are considered. The local site effects are often
disregarded, or limited to simple distinction between rock and alluvial sites and possible
considerationofnearfieldeffects.Empiricalrelationsderivedfromavailableearthquakedata
(attenuation relations) relate ground motion parameters to distance from the source and to
magnitude.
2.3.2
Attenuation relations: Attenuation relations are empirical relations developed from Strong
Ground Motion (SGM) measurements, and are used for the prediction of expected ground
motionanditsintrinsicvariabilityattheprojectsite.Suchpredictionsaregenerallyperformed
using groundmotion models that describe the distribution of expected ground motions as a
functionofafewindependentparameters,suchasmagnitude,sourcetositedistanceandsite
classification. The distribution of expected ground motions described by any one ground
motion model is given in terms of median spectral amplitudes and associated standard
error/deviation usually referred to as aleatory uncertainty. The seismic hazard studies should

needtoaccountforboththeseuncertaintiesintherelations.
Ideally,theattenuationrelationtobeusedforaparticularsiteshouldbedevelopedusingthe
recorded strongmotion data in the region around the site of interest. However, due to
paucity of strong motion data in India, such relations are not available for different parts of
the country. In practical engineering applications, it thus becomes necessary to identify
suitablerelationsfromthepublishedliterature.
2.3.3 Duration of shaking: The strong motion duration is important from the point of view of
responsebehaviorofthestructurebeingexamined,anditlargelydependsontheearthquake
magnitude and also on the distance and site condition to some extent. The strongmotion
durationisafunctionofthefrequencyandrepresentsthesumtotalofthedurationsofallthe
strong motion segments contributing 90% of the energy of complete motion (Trifunac and
Brady,1975).Durationofstrongshakingisanimportantparameterfordamsafetybecauseof
itsdirectrelationtodamages,especiallyincaseofembankments.
2.3.4 Response spectrum: The response spectrum represents the maximum response (in absolute
acceleration and relative velocity or relative displacement) as a function of natural time
period, for a given damping ratio, of a set of singledegreeoffreedom (SDOF) systems
subjectedtoatimedependentexcitation.
ItiscustomarytorepresentcomputedresponseofSDOFsystemtoaparticulargroundmotion
in the form of elastic spectra. These spectra show the response quantity (e.g. absolute
acceleration) against the natural periods of SDOF systems for different values of damping.
Sincetherearepeaksandvalleysinthespectrathuscomputed,thevagariesareironedoutas
faraspossiblebythesmoothenedspectra.ResponsespectrumcharacterizingtheMCEorDBE
hastobesitespecific.
The number of damping values for which response spectra should be specified to represent
theMCEorDBElevelofgroundmotionshouldencompassarangeofvaluesapplicabletothe
type of dam and level of ground motion considered. Damping values for analysis of concrete
and masonry dams may be taken as 5 and 7 percent respectively when the response is
assumed to be predominantly elastic. Damping values for the analysis of embankment dams
maybetakenas10to15percent.
2.3.5 Acceleration time histories: The seismic parameters in terms of peak values and spectral
characteristicsaresufficientforanalysisofmanydams.However,incaseofdamswithhighor
extreme hazard potentials, and for use of nonlinear analysis techniques, the specification of
earthquake motion in time domain (as acceleration time history records) is also required.
Acceleration timehistoriesmaybespecifiedforhorizontaland/orverticalmotionandshould
preferably be represented by real accelerograms obtained for site conditions similar to those
present at the dam site under consideration. However, since strong ground motion data
currently available do not cover the whole range of possible conditions, this is essentially an
exercise in generation of random waveforms (keeping in view the duration of the ground
motion and the general pattern of ground motion history) which are synthetic in nature.
Several time histories could be generated to match the same target response spectrum, and
allofthesewouldbeequallyacceptablefromthepointofseismicconsiderations.

2.4 DeterministicandProbabilisticAnalysisApproaches
The two general approaches for developing the sitespecific response spectra are the
deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
(PSHA) methods. The basic inputs required for both the approaches are the same, which
include data on past seismicity, knowledge of the tectonic features, geological and
morphological setup, geophysical anomalies, information on site soil condition and the
underlyinggeologyofthesurroundingarea,andtheattenuationcharacteristicsofthestrong
motionparametertobeusedforquantifyingthehazard.Thetreatmentofseismicitydatafor
homogenization, completeness with respect to time and size, and declustering are required
beforeproceedingwithanyoftheapproaches.
2.4.1 In its most commonly used forms, the DSHA approach proposes design for the socalled
"scenario"earthquakes(MCE).Theunderlyingphilosophyisthat"scenario"earthquakeofthe
seismic source is scientifically reasonable and is expected to produce most severe strong
groundmotionatthedamsite.Oneofthemostimportantissuesisthereliableestimationof
theMCE,foreachoftheidentifiedseismicsourcezones,onthebasisoftheavailabledataon
past earthquakes and the seismotectonic and geological features of a SSZ. However, the
delineation of the SSZ, the estimation of MCE magnitudes, as well as the estimation of the
corresponding ground motion at a certain distance from the earthquake source, are
commonlyassociatedwithlargeuncertainties.TheDBElevelofdeterministicgroundmotionis
generallytakenasanappropriatefraction(say0.5)oftheMCElevelofmotion.
2.4.2 The PSHA approach provides a structure in which uncertainties can be identified, quantified
andcombinedinarationalapproachtoprovideacombinedeffectofseveralalternateseismic
sourcesonseismic hazardatasite.Thus,therearemultiplescenariosand modelsforhazard
analysis applicable at a given site. The PSHA carries out integration over the total expected
seismicitytoprovidetheestimateofagroundmotionwithaspecifiedreturnperiod.TheMCE
level of ground motion is proposed to be defined with a return period of about 2500 years,
whereasDBElevelofgroundmotionisdefinedwithamuchlowerreturnperiodofabout145
years.
3.0 DATAREQUIREMENTS
Theprimarydataforidentificationofpotentialsourcesofearthquakesandevaluationoftheir
characteristics pertain to the tectonic, geologic and seismic activity conditions at, and in the
vicinityof,thedamsite.Thestudyshouldconsidertheregionalaspects,andthenfocusonthe
localsite conditions,soastofully understandtheoverallgeologicsettingandseismic history
ofaparticularsite.
The below mentioned information need to be compiled by getting inputs from various
organization or institute and published standard literature for the assessment of seismic
designparameters.
3.1 RegionalGeologic/SeismotectonicSetting
Seismotectonic map: A seismotectonic map of 1: 1000,000 or comparable scale, depicting
geology,structures(withemphasisonnatureandextentofmajorfaults,shearzonesetc)and
seismicity(asdetailedinpara6.2&7.1)foranareaabout300kmradiusfromdamsiteshould

be used ( i.e. about 6
0
latitude x 6
0
longitude with the dam site at the centre). Location and
description of faults and shear zones and assessment of the capability of faults to generate
earthquakes should be furnished. This should include documentation on the existence of or
thelackofhistoricalorprehistoricalactivity(paleoseismicity)foreachmajorfault.
Seismotectonic section: At least one regional seismotectonic section through the dam and
acrossthemajortectonictrend(basedon6.1.1)oftheregionshouldbeprepared.Thesection
coveringaminimum50kmreachoneithersideofthedamshouldclearlyshow(ifnecessary,
by vertical exaggeration) the subsurface disposition of the major faults and earthquake
hypocenters.
3.2 SeismicHistory
Earthquake catalogue: The earthquake catalogue should contain information about origin
time (date/ time), location (latitude/ longitude/ depth), and size (magnitude / type of
magnitude / intensity) of earthquake from the historical time to present time for an area of
about300kmradiusfromdamsite.ThisdatamaybeobtainedfromIMDandupdatedonthe
basisofotherauthenticsources.Totheextentpossible,informationonfocalmechanism,felt
area, accompanying surface effects, known or estimated intensity of ground motion induced
atthedamsite,andthesourceofdataanditsreliability,shouldalsobepresentedforallmajor
events.
Micro earthquake investigations: For dams exceeding the height of 100 m, the details of
micro earthquake data recordings around the dam site within a radius of 50 km should be
providedincorporatingfullcatalogueinformationforaperiodofatleastsixmonths.Suchdata
shouldbeobserved/collectedbytheprojectauthorities.
3.3 LocalGeologicSetting
Geological map: For dams higher than 200m and located in seismic zone IV or V (as per IS
1893 Part 1 (2002) a geological map (based on photogeology/imagery studies and ground
mapping)on1:50,000to1:60,000scalesshouldbepreparedforanareaof50kmradiusfrom
the dam site with special emphasis on gross lithological (or stratigraphical/tectono
stratigraphic)domains,structuraldetailslikefaults,folds,shearzones,masterjoints,structural
trendlinesandlineamentsetc.Geomorphicand/orevidencefromQuaternaryGeology(ifany)
withintheinfluenceareaindicatingpresenceofactivefaultshouldbedocumented.Geological
evidences wherever available on the nature of movement along the fault visvis the age of
such movement should be indicated. A short descriptive account on the various litho
stratigraphicunitsandstructuralelementsshouldbeincluded.
Surfaceandsubsurfaceexploration:Thereportofexplorationshouldcontainlocalgeological
map(s)ofthedamsiteandotherappurtenantstructureson1:1000orlargerscalealongwith
topographiccontours.Thereportshouldalsoincludegeologicalsectionsalongandacrossdam
axisThegeologicalsectionsshouldbederivedthroughdrillingandothergeophysicalprobing,
and they should show depth to overburden, faults, shear zones etc. The compressionalwave
velocity (V
p
) and shearwave velocity (V
s
) of at least 30 m below the major structures (dam,
powerhouseetc.)shouldbeprovided.

Additionalinputsonsubsurfaceconfigurationofmajorfaults:Fordamsofheightexceeding
200 m and located within seismic zone IV or V, additional inputs on the subsurface
configurationofmajorfaultswithin50kmradiusofthedamsiteshouldbeprovidedbasedon
Local Earthquake Tomography (LET) / Magnetotelluric (MT) studies or any suitable
methodologymaybeadopted,detailsofwhichshouldalsobefurnished.
4.0 METHODOLOGY
The site specific seismic design parameters will depend on many variable factors. It is an
extremelydifficulttasktodeterminetheexactparametersinviewofuncertaintiesrelatedto:
[a] choice of earthquake parameters (namely magnitude, distance, focal depth and
mechanism)relatedtoMCEandDBE;[b]choiceofgroundmotionattenuationrelationshipfor
computing spectral accelerations and [c] the elastic modulus, shear modulus and damping
characteristics of the material used in construction. In view of above, it is important to
exercise a judicious balance in various steps involved in the study. The mentioned guidelines
below are expected to facilitate this process for the meaningful, reliable and safe design of
rivervalleyprojectsinthegivenseismicenvironment.
4.1 SelectionofEarthquakesforAnalysis
All geological maps and data (as specified in section 6) should normally be studied to
determineactiveseismicfeatures.
A table giving the list of earthquakes with period wise breakup (historical to 1900; 1901 to
1963;1964topresent)shouldbeprepared.Forearthquakedatasubsequentto1964,thetype
of magnitude (i.e. M
W,
M
s
, m
b
, M
L
, M
D
etc) and focal depth should be given; the a and b
values from GuttenbergRichter (GR) relation should be calculated through regression
analysis,preferablyusingmaximumlikelihoodmethodandtheM
max
foraspecifiedrecurrence
period should be indicated using a and b values for each identified seismic source zone as
wellasfortheregionasawhole.
The appropriate distance consistent with attenuation relationship from postulated scenario
earthquake from dam site should be tabulated. Efforts should be made to classify the
corresponding faults based on its types of movement (i.e. normal, thrust, strikeslip [dextral/
sinistral])visvisthelocationofthestructure(e.g.,hangingwall,footwall,directivityincase
of strikeslip etc.). A floating earthquake approach should be adopted where seismogenic
featuresinthevicinityofdamsitearenotknown.
4.1.1 Magnitude of MCE: The MCE for a particular SSZ can be estimated from the catalogue of
earthquakes in the area of 300 km radius around the dam site (i.e. about 6
0
latitude x 6
0
longitude with the dam site at the centre), using several different methodologies. The
magnitudeforMCEcanbeestimatedusingmethodsasunder:
incrementingtheworstrecordedearthquake,toaccountforincompletenessofcatalog
usingaandbvaluesofGuttenbergRichterrelationship
extremevaluedistributionusingempiricalrelationship

predictingmagnitudeofearthquakebasedonfaultrupturedimensions
4
Thesimplestmethodistosuitablyenhancetheworstrecordedearthquakebyanappropriate
incrementtoaccountforincompletenessofdataforarrivingatMCE.
4.2 SelectionofAttenuationRelations
Having chosen the design earthquake parameters of MCE or DBE shock in relation to project
site, the next task is to obtain the ground motion characteristics at the site using empirical
groundmotion models (attenuation relations) which relate the response spectral amplitudes
at different natural periods or frequencies of the structure to the governing parameter like
earthquakemagnitude,sourcetositedistanceandsitegeologicalconditions.
The selection of appropriate ground motion models for a particular target area from large
number of published attenuation relations for other regions is not that easy. The selection
process becomes complicated because there may be systematic differences in terms of
seismicsources,wavepropagationorsiteresponsebetweenthetargetregionandhostregion
fromwherethedatausedtoderivethemodelwasobtained.
The goal is to identify the smallest set of independent models (out of the large number of
modelsavailableinpublishedliterature)thatcapturetherangeofpossiblegroundmotionsin
the region under study. The criteria recommended for shortlisting the ground motion
predictionmodel,arrangedintheorderofdescendinghierarchy,areasunder:
Modelshouldbeforasimilartectonicregimeasitwouldclearlynotbeappropriateto
useanequationderivedforasubductionzoneforhazardanalysisinaregionofcrustal
seismicity,andviceversa.
Model is published in an international peerreviewed journal. The peer review process
usually ensures that the models are clearly described and that basic tests (analysis of
residuals, comparison with previous studies, etc.) have been performed. The models
whichhavebeenextensivelyusedandtestedshouldbefavoured.
Documentation of model and its underlying dataset should be complete. The original
datasetusedinthestudymustbepresentedinthepublicationandthedataprocessing
mustbedescribedandtheparametersusedinregressionstabulated.
Frequency range of the model should be appropriate for engineering applications. For
some engineering applications where high frequencies (> 10 Hz) or low frequencies (<
0.3 Hz) are relevant, ground motion models derived from analog accelerograms may
not provide reliable estimates, even if the authors of the model have presented
regressioncoefficientsforsuchfrequencies.
Model should be well constrained with dependence on all the governing parameters.
The recently published models include a nonlinear magnitude scaling term to model
magnitudesaturationandalsoeffectofpossiblenonlinearresponseofsoil.Neglecting
thenonlinearityinsoilresponsemaydistorttheshapeoftheattenuationfunctionfor
soilsites.

4
WellsandCoppersmith1994

SometypicalattenuationrelationsbeingusedarelistedinBibliography.
The choice of any particular attenuation relationship should be explained with complete
references and narration of its merits. Further, the final selection should be based on the
rankingcriteriaduetoScherbaumetal.(2004)usinglimitedstrongmotiondata,ifavailablein
theregionofinterest.Forthispurpose,itisproposedtodividethecountryintothreeregions
fortheidentificationofseparatesetsofattenuationrelationshipsthatarebestsuitedforeach
region.Thetargeted threeregionsare(i)Himalayas,(ii)Gangabasinand(iii)Shieldregions.
Such an exercise will call for detailed examination of the geophysical criteria regarding the
degreeofsimilarity,orotherwise,betweenthehostregionsfromwherethecandidatemodels
havebeenderivedandthethreetargetregions.
Till the detailed study is carried out to identify the attenuation relations for the above
mentioned three regions of India, the following information may be considered for the time
being:
The spectral acceleration values computed at various natural periods from different
published attenuation relations when compared with the limited observed spectral
amplitudesfromafewHimalayanearthquakes,therelationshipsduetoAbrahamsonand
Silva(1997)andTrifunacandLee(1989)areseentohavetheoverallbestmatchingwith
theobserveddataandmaythusbeconsideredsuitablefortheHimalayanregion.
Abrahamson and Silva have recently updated their relationship as a part of the Next
Generation Attenuation (NGA) project using the PEER NGA database. The updated
relationship has included the fault directivity and site effects more comprehensively, but
it needs exact information about the fault rupture geometry, which is not available in
most cases. The other NGA relations also need information on fault details to varying
extent. Hence the NGA attenuation relations cannot be used without making some
subjective assumptions leading to biased results. The earlier relation of Abrahamson and
SilvamaythereforehavetobeusedfortheHimalayanRegion.
Based on world wide data, Graizer and Kalkan (2009) have proposed an approach to
obtain the response spectral shape considering the dependence on magnitude, distance,
and site condition which can be scaled by the PGA. They have also developed an
attenuation relation for PGA using the same database (Graizer and Kalkan, 2007). This
approach is also considered suitable for the Himalayan region, because the PGA
attenuation of Graizer and Kalkan (2007) is found to describe the available PGA data in
Himalayanregionquitewell
The relationship due to Trifunac and Lee (1989) has considered the dependence on the
magnitude and distance in a physically realistic way in that the magnitude and distance
saturation effects as well as the geometric spreading with distance are accounted for at
each frequency. Also the influences of both the shallow local soil, as well as deep
geological formations at the site, are included in this relationship. As no strong motion
data is available for the IndoGangetic plains, the relationship of Lee is proposed to be
used for the region due to physically realistic dependence on various governing
parameters.

4.3 DevelopmentofTargetResponseSpectra
For estimating the sitespecific design ground motion by deterministic as well as probabilistic
approach, it is first necessary to obtain the response spectra of horizontal and vertical
components of motion separately for a damping ratio of 5%. Such spectra are known as the
target response spectra, and the ground motion acceleration time histories required for
detailed dynamic response analysis are generated synthetically to be compatible with the
target response spectra. Response spectra for other values of damping are then computed
from these acceleration time histories. Target response spectra can be developed by the
followingthreeapproaches:
(i) ScalingastandardspectralshapebyPGA:
Theresponsespectraofhorizontalandverticalcomponentsofgroundmotioncanbeobtained
conveniently by scaling a mean plus one standard deviation normalized spectral shape
appropriate for the site of interest with the median peak ground acceleration. The standard
spectral shape should be based on sufficiently large ensemble of strong motion records with
magnitude and sourcetosite distance close to the desired magnitude and distance of
controllingMCE.ThePGAcanbeestimatedbydeterministicorprobabilisticapproach.
(ii) Usingspectralamplitudeatselectedperiods(say0.2and1.0sec):
Theresponsespectralamplitudesatnaturalperiodsof0.2secand1.0secalongwithPGAcan
be estimated using an appropriate attenuation relation from deterministic or probabilistic
approach. Median or median plus one standard deviation values (depending upon the
seismicityoftheregion)ofalltheseparametershastobeusedinthedeterministicapproach
and with a return period of 2500 years in the probabilistic approach to get the MCE level of
spectra.
The control period T
2
which marks the beginning of the constant velocity range is then
obtainedastheratioofthepseudospectr ac ionat1.0and0.2secasfollows al celerat
T
2
=
S
pa
(1.us)
S
pa
(u.2s)
5
:
x 1s
ThecontrolperiodT
1
whichmarksthebeginningofconstantaccelerationrangeisobtainedas
afractionofT
2
dependingonthesoilclassic tion s: a a
T
1
= _
1
2
to
1
S
] x T
2
withthefactor1/2correspondingtoverysoftsoiland1/5correspondingtomassiverocks.For
mostoftheprojectsitestheactualfactorwillbebetweenthesetwoextremevalues(0.20.5).
The psuedospectral acceleration is considered to increase linearly from PGA value at period
T
0
= 0.03 sec to its maximum value at T
1
. The maximum value of the psuedospectral
accelerationobtainedatT
n
=0.2secisheldconstantfromperiodT
1
toT
2
.Forperiodslessthan

5
P K Malhotra- Return period design ground motions. Seismological Research Letters, 76(6):693-699,2005.

T
0
thepsuedospectralaccelerationisconsideredtobethesameasthePGA.
The psuedospectral velocity is held constant at S

pv
(T
2
) = S
pa
(T
2
)x
T
2
2
in the range from
periods T
2
to T
3
. The constant velocity range is considered to extend upto T
3
= (6 to 9) T
2
,
with the factor 6 corresponding to massive rocks and 9 corresponding to very soft soil, after
whichtheconstantdisplacement(orlinearpsuedospectralvelocitywithnegativeslope)range
begins.Forstrongearthquakes,theconstantdisplacementrangeoftheresponsespectrumin
the near field generally begins between 3sec and 4sec. The constant psuedospectral
displacementisobtainedfromthepsuedospectralvelocityatT
3
as
S
d
(T
3
) = S
pv
(T
3
) x
T
3
2
= S
pa
(T
2
) x
T
2
2
x
T
3
2
Thetripartiteplotofresponsespectrumisshowninfig1

Figure1:Responsespectrumtripartiteplot(logscale)

The tripartite format of design spectrum is not very convenient to use in practice and
therefore,itisnecessarytotranslateitintoalinearplotofpseudospectralacceleration(Spa)
versus natural period (T
n
). For a response spectrum in tripartite format (as shown in Fig. 1),
the pseudospectral acceleration (S
pa
) may be p as nction of the natural period
(T
n
)as:
rescribed a fu
S
pa
(T
n
) = PuA x
`
1
1
1
1
1 ; T
n
T
0
(T
n
T
0
)
u
; T
0
T
n
T
1

A ; T
1
T
n
T
2
v T
n
; T
2
T
n
T
3
B T
n
2
; T
n
> T
3
Theparameters,A,VandDaredescribedasbelow:
=
Iog[S
v
(T
1
)- Iog[S
v
(T
0
)
I - I ( ) og(T
1
) og T
0
- 1;
A =
S
a
(T
1
)
PGA
=
S
a
(T
1
)
S (T
0
)
a
;
v = 2 x
S
v
(T
2
)
PGA

B = 2 x T
3
x
S
pv
(T
3
)
PuA
;

The pseudoacceleration design spectrum specied by the above equation and coecients is
shown in Fig. 2. The positions of the control periods of the equation have been marked in
thesegures.Itmaybeseenthatwhilethepseudoaccelerationspectrumplotinlinearscale
hasdierentcurves,thetripartiteplotinlogarithmicscalesiswelldenedbyasetofstraight
lines between dierent pairs of control periods. Therefore, the above equation of pseudo
acceleration design spectrum is derived from the corresponding equations of straight lines of
pseudovelocityspectrumonthetripartiteplot.

Figure2:Pseudospectralacceleration(linearscale)

(iii) Usingfrequencydependentattenuationrelationships:
TheattenuationrelationsusedforestimatingthePGAorspectralamplitudeat0.2and1.0sec
intheabovetwomethodsaregenerallydefinedforalargenumberofnaturalperiodscovering
the entire frequency range necessary to define the complete response spectrum. Thus, by
estimatingthespectralamplitudeatallthenaturalperiodsforwhichtheattenuationrelation
is defined, it is possible to obtain the complete response spectrum without making any
assumptions. This can be done by using both deterministic as well as probabilistic
methodologies.
4.3.1 DSHAMethodologyforDevelopingTargetResponseSpectra
Incommonlyuseddeterministicapproachfordevelopingtheresponsespectraforadamsite,
one has to first assess the maximum possible earthquake magnitude for each of the seismic
sources (important faults, shear zones, thrusts etc) in the project area of interest (generally
about 6
0
latitude x 6
0
longitude with the dam site at the centre). Such an earthquake is
commonly termed as Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE), which is the largest earthquake
that can be supported by each source under the site specific seismotectonic framework. The
MCE for each seismic source is then presumed to occur at a location that places the focus at
the minimum possible distance to the project dam site which the source geometry permits.
The response spectra for each MCE can then be developed using an appropriate attenuation
relation. The zeroperiod spectral value is the peak ground acceleration, i.e., zeroperiod
spectral acceleration (ZPA) = PGA. The worst combination of the magnitude and distance of
MCEisnormallyconsideredtogettheMCElevelofdesigngroundmotion.
ThetargetspectrumforMCEconditionmaybetakenasatmedianplusonestandarddeviation
levelforprojectsitesinregionsofhighseismicity(SeismicZoneIVandVasperIS:18932002)
becauseofrelativelyshortreturnperiodsoflargeearthquakesandtoaccountforthescatter
in recorded earthquake data. For the low seismicity regions (Seismic Zones II and III as per
IS:18932002), the recurrence interval of MCE level earthquakes is very large and therefore
theMCEtargetspectrumforprojectsitesintheseregionsmaybetakenasmedianestimates.
Thisistomaintainapproximatelyuniformlevelofseismicriskacrosstheentirecountry.
ThetargetresponsespectraforDesignBasisEarthquake(DBE)conditionmaybetakenasone
standard deviation less than the corresponding MCE target spectra, or half of MCE target
spectra,whichevergivehigheramplitudeatnaturalperiodofinterest.
AnillustrativeexampleoftheforegoingmethodologyisgiveninAnnexureA
4.3.2 PSHAMethodologyforDevelopingTargetResponseSpectra
The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is based on an altogether different
philosophy and concept compared to the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA)
approach for arriving at sitespecific design earthquake ground motion for important
engineeredprojects.TheDSHAaimsatestimatingthepossiblemaximumvalueoftheground
motion amplitudes by considering a maximum magnitude of earthquake to occur at the
shortest sourcetosite distance, irrespective of the probability of such an occurrence, which

remains unknown and unquantified. The PSHA on the other hand aims at estimating the
groundmotionamplitudeshavingadesiredannualprobability(p)ofexceedanceduetoanyof
theearthquakesexpectedtooccuranywhereintheregionaroundtheprojectsite.Thereturn
period T
r
(years) is equal to reciprocal of the annual probability (p) of exceedance. Thus, a
probability of exceedance equal to 0.001 represents a return period of 1000 years for the
groundmotion.TheICOLDguidelines(2010)specifythereturnperiodsof10,000years,3,000
years and 1,000 years for the MCE level of ground motion for dams with three different risk
levels to the downstream population. The PSHA approach can also be used to obtain the
return period corresponding to the deterministic estimate of the ground motion for
comparison with the return periods proposed by ICOLD guidelines and taking appropriate
decisionsaboutthesuitabilityofthedeterministicestimate.
Details on the currently used PSHA approach can be read from Cornell (1968), EPRI (1987),
Reiter(1990),SSHAC(1997),USACE(1999),Gupta(2002),McGuire(2004),etc.ThebasicPSHA
approachisbasedoncomputingthefollowingannualprobabilityofexceedanceofaspecified
measureofthegroundmotionamplitude(e.g.theaccelerationresponsespectrumamplitude
SA(T)atnaturalperiodT):
p|
Here,p|SA(I)]istheannualprobabilityofexceedingaspectralamplitudeSA(T)duetoanyof
the earthquakes in any of the source zones,
n
(H
]
, R
) is the annual occurrence rate of

earthquakesofmagnitudeH
]
atsourcetositedistanceR
ineachoftheseismicsourcezones
around the project site, and q
n
|SA(I)|H
]
, R
] is the probability of exceeding the spectral

amplitude SA(T) due to magnitude and distance combination (H
]
, R
) in the n
th
source zone.
TheplotofSA(T)vsp|SA(I)] isknownastheHazardCurve.Bycomputingthehazardcurves
for all the natural periods T, the design response spectrum can be obtained with a desired
annualprobabilityofexceedance(orrecurrenceperiod)atalltheperiods.Suchaspectrumis
knownasUniformHazardResponseSpectrum.
SA(I)] = 1 -cxp _-q
n
|SA(I)|
] n
H
]
, R
]. v
n
(H
]
, R
)_
The various steps involved in computing the hazard curves to implement the PSHA
approachcanbesummarizedasbelow:
Step1:DelineationofSeismicSourceZones
The first step in PSHA is to identify and delineate various seismic source zones (SSZ) within a
regionof6lat6longwiththedamsiteatthecenter,whereaSSZrepresentstheportion
of earths crust with distinctly different characteristics of earthquake activity ( in terms of
frequency & max potential) from those of the adjacent crust. Though fault specific seismic
sourcescanbeusedinsomecases,duetolackofclosecorrelationofobservedseismicitywith
knownfaults,extendedareatypeofsourcesisusedmorecommonlyinpracticalapplications.
It may be noted that delineation of seismic sources cannot be considered free from some
elementofsubjectivity.

Step2:EstimatingSeismicityofaSourceZone
TheGutenbergandRichters(1944)recurrencerelationship logN(H) = o - bH,whereN(M)
represents the cumulative number of earthquakes per year with magnitude M or greater, is
fitted to each seismic source in step 2 using available past earthquake data. The catalogue
datamaybetreatedforremovalofforeshocksandaftershocks,homogenizationofmagnitude
to either M
w
or M
s
and correction for incompleteness in size and time. This is then used to
obtaintheoccurrenceraten(H
]
)ofearthquakesinmagnitudeinterval(H
]
H
]
,H
]
+H
]
)by
discretizingthecompletemagnituderangebetweenaminimumthresholdmagnitudeandthe
maximum upper bound magnitude. These numbers are finally distributed over the entire
source zone by dividing it into a large number of small size elements to get the annual
occurrence rate (H
]
, R
), where R
refers to the distance to the center of the i

th
source
element.
Step3:EstimationofProbabilityq
n
[SA(T)IM
j
,R
|
]
An attenuation relationship suitable for the region of interest is selected in step 3, which
describes the response spectral amplitudes in terms of earthquake magnitude, sourcetosite
distance, and site geologic condition. Such a relation is able to provide the least squares
median estimate and the corresponding probability distribution of the residuals for specified
earthquake magnitude H
]
and sourcetosite distance R
, which can readily be used to

estimate the probability q
n
[SA(T) I N
j
, R
I
]. A single attenuation relation may normally be
applicabletoallthesourcezones,butdifferentrelationsmayalsobeused,ifnecessary.
Step4:ComputationofUniformHazardSpectrum

The fourth and the final step in the PSHA approach is to compute the hazard curves, i.e.
probabilitydistributionp[SA(T)],bycarryingoutthe summations overallthemagnitudesand
distances in all the source zones. A uniform hazard response spectrum is obtained by
computing the p[SA(T)] for all the natural periods of interest and estimating the
correspondingspectralamplitudeswithadesiredannualprobabilityofexceedance(orreturn
period).
AnillustrativeexampleoftheforegoingmethodologyisgiveninAnnexure B
4.4 DeterminationofSitespecificSeismicCoefficients
With the knowledge of the natural period of the dam section, the response spectra can be
used to obtain the sitespecific seismic coefficients. The type and preliminary section of the
dam, the computational formula, and other assumption made in the computation of natural
periodshouldbefurnishedinthestudy.
4.4.1 Horizontal seismic coefficient: For the computed natural period of the dam section, find the
spectralamplitudeforDBEusingthe5%dampedspectrumfortheconcrete/masonrydamand
10 % damped spectrum for earthen and rockfill dams. The horizontal seismic coefficient
h
maybetakenasafraction(say0.5)ofthespectralamplitudeobtainedasabove,howevernot
lessthanthatobtainedasperIS1893(1984).

4.4.2
Vertical seismic coefficient: Similar steps (as for

h
) should be applied on the response
spectrum for the vertical seismic component for the determination of vertical seismic
coefficient
v.
The alternative approach (as per IS code) should also be applied wherein the
vertical seismic coefficient is taken as 2/3
rds
of thehorizontal seismic coefficient (i.e.
v
= 2/3
h
).Thehigherofthetwovaluesshouldbetakenasthedesigncoefficient.
4.5 EstimationofDurationofShaking
The duration of strong shaking being an important seismic evaluation parameter, should be
reflected explicitly in the study, alongwith the total duration. Both these durations can be
estimated using the scaling relations (e.g. Novikova and Trifunac, 1994), which defines the
strong motion duration at each frequency as a function of earthquake magnitude, sourceto
site distance and site condition. For generation of design accelerograms, the strong motion
duration may be taken as the average duration corresponding to the highest frequency band
(1825 Hz) and the total duration can be taken as the average plus one standard deviation
valuecorrespondingtothelowestfrequencyband(0.100.15Hz)butnotlessthan20seconds.
Local conditions may also affect the expected duration of earthquake shaking and should be
consideredonacasebycasebasis.
4.6 DevelopmentofAccelerationTimeHistories
The acceleration time histories should preferably be represented by real accelerograms
obtainedforsiteconditionssimilartothosepresentatthedamsiteunderconsideration.Since
the strong ground motion data currently available do not cover the whole range of possible
conditions, such records may be supplemented by synthetic motions representing any
earthquakesizeandseismotectonicenvironment.Syntheticearthquakescanbedevelopedby
superpositionmethods
6
.
It is recommended that several acceleration time histories be used to represent the ground
motionascertaintimehistorieshavelowerenergycontentatsomefrequenciesandtheiruse
mayresultinanunconservativeanalysis.Whendetailedtimehistoryanalysisisnecessaryitis
proposed to use atleast three sets of uncorrelated time histories of horizontal & vertical
motionsandthemaximumresponsetoallthethreesetsbeconsideredfordesignpurposes.

Acceleration time histories should be specified separately for the horizontal and vertical
motions.
4.7 FactorstobeconsideredwhiledecidingthesitespecificTargetResponseSpectrum
Having obtained the target response spectrum from Deterministic as well as Probabilistic
approach,thefollowingconsiderationsmaybehelpfulinadoptingthetargetresponsespectra
inpracticalapplications:
ForMCEcondition:
If the spectral amplitudes obtained by the two approaches differ by 25% or less, the
envelope of both may be adopted as the design target spectra. In other cases a weighted
average of both the spectra may be adopted as the target spectra, with weights

6
Gupta&Joshi(1993).Onsynthesizingresponsespectrumcompatibleaccelerograms,JournalofEuropeanEarthquakeEngineering,2,2533.

appropriately justified. If the difference in the spectral amplitude values obtained by two
approaches happens to be very large (say more than 100%), then the possible technical
reasonsforsuchdiscrepanciesshallbeexplainedinthereport.
ForDBEcondition:
In the seismic zones IV and V, if the spectral amplitudes obtained by the two approaches
differby25%orless,attheperiodsofinterest,thedesigntargetresponsespectrumshall
beobtainedastheenvelopeofDSHAandPSHADBEestimate(asdescribedinparas4.3.1&
4.3.2).Inothercasesaweightedaverageofboththespectramaybeadoptedasthetarget
spectra,withweightsappropriatelyjustified.However,forseismiczonesII&III,thedesign
target response spectrum shall be obtained as the envelope of the DSHA and PSHA DBE
estimates.
Theabovecomparisonsaretoberestrictedfornaturalperiodsupto1.0sec

5.0 RECOMMENDATIONSONDESIGNAPPROACH
The site specific seismic study report should mention the design approach to be adopted for
checking the stability of the dam and should also contain recommendations regarding the
permissiblestressesandslidingfactorstobeadopted.Theearthquakeperformanceofgravity
dams has to be evaluated on the basis of stresses, sliding factor, demandcapacity ratios and
the associated cumulative duration. The below mentioned points should be taken in to
accountwhileformulatingrecommendations.
5.1 Seismicanalysisofconcretegravitydamscanstartwithsimplifiedmethodsusingsitespecific
seismiccoefficientforslidingandoverturningstability,andprogresstoamorerefinedanalysis
as needed. The pseudostatic method of analysis may be used for computation of forces.
Regardingpermissiblestresses,BIScode6512:CriteriafordesignofSolidGravityDamsmaybe
madeuseof.
TheDBElevelofgroundmotionisusedfortheevaluationoftheactualperformanceofgravity
dams. Under DBE, the dam is required to be within linear elastic range with little or no
damage. The spectra and timehistories for DBE level of ground motion can be used to
evaluatethedynamicresponseofgravitydamsbylinearelasticresponsespectrummethodor
thetimehistorymethod.UnderDBEcondition,thedemandcapacityratios(DCR)arerequired
to be less than or equal to 1.0. The DCR is defined as the ratio of induced tensile stress to
tensilestrengthoftheconcrete.Forthispurpose,thetensilestrengthorcapacityoftheplain
concrete can be obtained from the uniaxial splitting tension tests or from the static
compressivestrength,f
c
,usingtherelationduetoRaphel(1984),f
t
=1.7f
c
2/3
wheref
c
isinpsi
orf
t
=0.324f
c
2/3
wheref
c
isinMPa,asrecommendedinUSACEManualEM111026051.
UnderMCEcondition,damsshouldnotexperienceacatastrophiclossofthereservoir.Under
the rapid loading of MCE conditions, sliding may occur at the dam foundation interface or at
upper elevations at lift joints. Dams subjected to large lateral forces produced by the MCE
groundmotionmaytipandstartrockingandtheresultingdrivingforcemaybecomesolarge
that the structure breaks contact with the foundation or cracks all the way through at the
upperelevation.

The dynamic response under MCE condition may first be evaluated using linearelastic time
history analysis. The level of nonlinear response or cracking is considered acceptable if DCR
are less than 2.0, and limited to 15 percent of the dam crosssection surface area, and the
cumulative duration of stress excursions beyond the tensile strength of the concrete falls
below the performance curve given in Figure 3. DCR of 2.0 corresponds to the apparent
dynamic tensile strength of concrete (Raphel, 1984). The cumulative duration beyond a
certainlevelofDCRisobtainedbymultiplyingthenumberofstressvaluesexceedingthatlevel
by the timestep used in the timehistory analysis. When these performance conditions are
notmet,anonlineartimehistoryanalysisisrequiredtoestimatethedamagemoreaccurately
underMCEcondition.

Fig.3:Performancecurveforgravitydams
5.2 In case of earthen dams, the seismic slope stability analysis involves starting with a simpler
analysis (Pseudostatic) and moving on to Sliding Block analysis and Dynamic analysis, where
complexity of analysis increases in each stage. In pseudostatic slope stability analysis,
earthquake forces are represented by the site specific seismic coefficient. Seismic inertial
forces are estimated by multiplying weight of the potential sliding mass (W) with seismic
coefficient as per IS 1893 (1984). Undrained shear strength of the soil is to be considered in
the analysis. An index of stability, called factor of safety (FOS) is computed from the ratio of
resistingmomenttodisturbingmoment,forapotentialslidingmass.AFOSof1.0oraboveis
considered acceptable under earthquake condition. Seeds simplified approach may be used
to determine liquefaction potential of cohesionless soil strata. The liquefaction potential is
ascertainedfromindexpropertiesasrecommendedbySeed(2003).

In sliding block analysis, permanent deformation in an earthen dam, due to an earthquake is
evaluatedbasedonNewmarkconcept.Inthismethod,apotentialslidingmassisassumedasa

rigid body on a rigid base and contact between them as a rigidplastic. The analysis involves
determination of Yield acceleration (K
y
) from slope stability analysis, maximum crest
acceleration (U
max
) and average acceleration time history [K
av
(t)] of sliding mass and
estimation of permanent crest displacement by double integration of acceleration difference
[K
av
(t)K
y
]. If the crest displacement is within permissible limit (w.r.t Free Board) no further
analysis is required. In case the sliding block analysis shows excessive deformation, the
detaileddynamicanalysismaybecarriedout.
Dynamic analysis is carried out for dams, failure of which may lead to high level of risk. The
analysisinvolvesdeterminationofcyclicstrengthofsoilfromcyclictriaxialsheartests,induced
shear stresses from dynamic finite element response analysis (equivalent linear or nonlinear)
using site specific earthquake, evaluation of strain potential in each element by comparing
induced shear stresses with shear strength of soils and then determination of overall
deformationofdamfromstrainpotential,whichshouldbewithinpermissiblelimit(w.r.t.Free
Boardprovided).
Thedynamicanalysisprocedureisfollowedtodetermineliquefactionpotentialofsoil.Incyclic
triaxialtestsonundisturbedsoilsamples,thecyclicshearstressrequiredtocauseliquefaction
is determined. The stresses that are likely to be induced in the ground are determined from
dynamic response analysis. Comparing the induced stresses with stress required to cause
liquefactionwillindicatesusceptibilityforliquefaction.
6.0 SUBMISSIONOFSTUDYREPORTFORNCSDPAPPROVAL
The site specific studies for determination of design earthquake parameters shall have to be
carried out by Deterministic as well as Probabilistic approach. However, where the available
data on past seismicity is scanty, and even the data on tectonic features and geological
processes are inadequate to have any meaningful application of probabilistic analysis, the
deterministic analysis only shall be carried out by recording the proper justification for not
adoptingtheprobabilisticapproachforanalysis.
Thereportshouldalsoincludeasection/chaptergivingthefollowinginformation:
Comparison of target response spectra obtained from Deterministic as well as
Probabilistic approach for MCE and DBE conditions alongwith final target response
spectraselectedwithjustification
CompatibleaccelerationtimehistoriesforMCE&DBEtargetresponsespectra
Computed response spectra for different damping values ie 2%, 3%,5%,10% and 15%
atleast
SitespecifichorizontalandverticalSeismiccoefficients
Aftercompletionofthesitespecificseismicstudy,thefullstudyreportshouldbecompiledin
asingledossierasperproformagiveninAnnexureC.Thesaidproformashouldalsobefilled
upreflectingthestatusofcompliances(alongwithreasonsfornoncompliances)fordifferent
itemsofthestudy.Thisproforma,dulyfilledandsigned,shouldbefurnishedasachecklistin
thebeginningofthestudyreport.

Fifteen(15)boundvolumesandonesoftcopyofthestudyreportshouldbesubmittedtothe
NCSDP secretariat (Foundation Engineering & Special Analysis Directorate, Central Water
Commission, 712(S), Sewa Bhawan, R.K. Puram, New Delhi). In order to ensure consideration
of study report in a particular meeting of the NCSDP, the study report should reach the
secretariat at least two months ahead of that meeting. Only such study reports, which are
foundsatisfactory(intermsofcompliancesoftheguidelines)onpreliminaryinspectionbythe
Secretariat,willbeputuptotheNCSDPforconsiderationandapproval.
7.0 PRESENTATIONOFSTUDYREPORTBEFORENCSDP
The date on which study report of a particular project will come up before NCSDP will be
intimated by the Secretariat to the project authorities. It will be the responsibility of the
project authorities to ensure presence of experts/ consultants connected with the study on
the stipulated date and time. The project authorities will make a PowerPoint presentation of
thestudyreportbeforeNCSDP,andanswertothequeriesofthemembersoftheCommittee.
The presentation should cover: (i) details of the project; (ii) regional geological & seismo
tectonic setting; (iii) seismic history; (iv) local geological setting; (v) study methodology and
deviation, if any, from the recommended approach; (vi) evaluated parameters of the site
specificseismicstudy;and(vii)recommendationsondesignapproach.


AnnexureA
IllustrativeExample:DSHAmethodfordevelopingtargetresponsespectra

Consideringascenarioearthquakeofmagnitude7.5withclosestdistancefromthesitetozone
of energy release as 14 km and with local geological conditions indicating massive rock, the
following is estimated from a ground motion prediction equation for 5% damped horizontal
accelerationspectrum:
PeakGroundAcceleration(atmeanplusonestandarddeviationlevel)=3.934m/s
2
7
Ps s accel at woperiodsie0.2secand1.0sec uedo pectral er ionvaluefort
S
pa
(u.2s) = 8.6Sm/s
2
; S
pa
(1.us) = S.782m/s
2
Thusthecontrolperiod(T
2
)forstartofconstantvelocityr utto0.67sec. ange workso
T
2
=
S
a
(1.0s)
S
a
(0.2s)
x 1s;T
2
=
5.782
8.63
x 1s = u.67s
Thecontrolperiodforthebeginn o tacceleration(T
1
)isobtainedasafractionof ingofc nstan
I
1
= [
1
5
T
2
as:
x I
2
=0.134sec
Thepseudospectralaccelerationisconsideredtobesameasthepeakgroundaccelerationat
controlperiodT
0
=0.03s.

Thecontrolperiodforconstantdisplacement(T
3
)(generallybetween3secto4secforstrong
earthquakesinneareldconditions) obtained scalingtheconstantvelocitycontrolperiod
(T
2
)as
is by
I
3
=6.25I
2
=4.2sec
Thuswehave:
PuA =
pa
(T
0
) = .9S4 m s
2
S
pa
(T
1
)=8.6S m s
2
= S
pa
(T
2
)
S S ;

Thecorrespondingpseudospectral v it eloc ies maybeobtainedas:
pv a
S (T
0
) = S
p
(T
0
)x
T
0
2
= u.u188 ms
pv a
S (T
1
) = S
p
(T
1
)x
T
1
2
= u.1868 ms
pv a

S (T
2
) = S
p
(T
2
)x
T
2
2
= u.9S1S ms
S
pv
(T
3
) = S
pa
(T
3
)x
T
3
2

= u.9S1S ms

7
Boore-Atknison -Ground motion Prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV and 5%-damped PSA at spectral
periods between 0.01s and 10.0s, Earthquake Spectra, 24(1):99-138,23008

From these numerical values of pseudospectral velocity and the control periods, the
parametersofthesmoothaccelerationdesignspectrummaybeobtainedas
=
Iog[S
v
(T
1
)- Iog[S
v
(T
0
)
Iog(T
1
)- Iog(T
0
)
- 1 = u.SS4;
A =
S
a
(T
1
)
PGA
=
S
a
(T
1
)
S
a
(T
0
)
= 2.194;
v = 2 x
S
v
(T
2
)
PGA
= 88; 1.4
B = 2 x T
3
x
S
pv
(T
3
)
PuA
= 6.248

TargetResponsespectrumforHorizontalAcceleration(5%dampingLevel)

77 78 79 80 81 82 83
Longitude, E
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
L
a
t
i
t
u
d
e
,

N
Lineaments Faults Sub-surface
fault
Thrust
Gravity fault Suture zone
Gartok (Tibet)
Delhi
Haridwar
Deharadun Project
Site
Chamoli
Uttarkashi
Nainital
Pithoragarh
Manali
4.0 M < 4.8 4.8 M < 5.6 5.6 M < 6.4 M 7.2 6.4 M < 7.2
AnnexureB
IllustrativeExample:PSHAmethodfordevelopingtargetresponsespectra
To illustrate the application of the PSHA approach, a typical site shown by solid triangle is
consideredinthehighlyseismicKumaunGarhwalHimalayanregion(Fig.1).Themajortectonic
features in the region can be divided longitudinally into five major crustal formation zones
identified from south to north as (i) outer zone of the foredeep, (ii) inner zone of the fore
deepformingtheHimalayanfoothills(iii)LesserHimalayaformedbysuperpositionofaseries
of tectonic nappes and probably thrusted over the foredeep, (iv) the High Himalaya and (v)
the IndusTsangpo Suture zone (Dasgupta, 2000). The first four of these zones are separated
from each other by large thrust faults. The Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) runs at the boundary
between the outer and the inner zones of the foredeep. The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)
separatesthenappedfoldedcomplexoftheLesserHimalayafromtheHimalayanfoothills.
A thick strata of crystalline rock comprising the High Himalaya is thrusted over the
metamorphosed deposits of the Lesser Himalaya along the MCT. The belt north of High
Himalayaandbound byIndusTsangpoSutureisknownasTethysHimalaya,which consistsof
fossiliferroussedimentaryrocks.
Fig.1:Majortectonicfeaturesintheregionoftheprojectsitealongwith
theepicentersofavailablepastearthquakes

77 78 79 80 81 82 83
Longitude, E
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
L
a
t
i
t
u
d
e
,

N
Project site
Source - 1
Source - 3
Source - 2
Sub-Source - 3
Source - 4
Source -5
Source - 3
4.0 M < 4.8 4.8 M < 5.6 5.6 M < 6.4 M 7.2 6.4 M < 7.2
InadditiontothemajorstructuraldiscontinuitiesoftheHimalayanregion,thereareanumber
of other faults/lineaments in the region. Within the main Himalayan belt, the high grade
complexofthecentralcrystallinesisboundtothenorthandthesouthbyMartoliThrust
and MCT, respectively. A similar highgrade complex, the Almora crystallines, is delimited on
eithersidebytheNorthAlmoraThrust(NAT)andtheSouthAlmoraThrust(SAT).Furthernorth
oftheMartolithrustisthedextralKarakoramFault,subparalleltotheIndusSutureZone(ISZ).
The belt between the Karakoram Fault and ISZ is occupied by cover rocks affected by the
Himalayan orogeny. Neotectonic activity has been recorded along the Karakoram Fault, ISZ,
MBTaswellasMFT.AnumberoftransversefaultsalsoexistwithintheHimalayanrangesas
well as to the south in the IndoGangetic planes. The transverse features are also associated
withvaryinglevelsofseismicity.
ThefirststepinPSHAistoidentifyanddelineatethevariousseismogenicsourcezones(SSZ)in
theregionofabout6lat6longaroundtheprojectsite.Consideringthespatialdistribution
and correlation of seismic activity with the tectonic features in the region of the project, five
broad seismic sources have been identified, viz. (i) TransHimalayan (TRH) area north of
Karakoram Fault, (ii) Himalayan Fold (HF) area between ISZ and Karakoram Fault, (iii) Tethys
Himalayan(THH)areabetweenMCTandISZ,(iv)MainHimalayanThrusts(MHT)areaofMCT,
MBT, etc., and (v) Area of Aravalli Fold Belt (AFB) in the IndoGangetic Plains. These source
zonesareshowndemarcatedbythicksolidlinesinFig.2alongwiththeepicentersofthepast
earthquakes. There is a marked concentration of epicenters along the Kaurik Fault system
(KFS)intheTHHmainsource,whichhasbeenthereforedefinedbyaseparatesubsource.The
other main sources are also characterized by varying concentrations of epicenters, which has
beensuitablyaccountedindistributingtheexpectedseismicityoverthecompletesourcezone
toestimatetheoccurrencerate(H
]
, R
)ofearthquakesindifferentmagnitudeanddistance
intervals

Fig.2:Possibleseismicsourcezonesintheregionoftheprojectsite

The second step is to obtain ( )

i j
R M , for each source zone. For this purpose, first the
GutenbergRichters earthquake recurrence relationship is defined for
each source zone, by estimating the constants a and b using maximum likelihood method
(Weichert,1980).TheN(M)isobtainedusingavailablepastearthquakedatainthesourcezone
by homogenization of the magnitude (Scordilis, 2006), declustering the catalog by removing
foreandaftershocks(GardnerandKnopoff,1974),andaccountingfortheincompletenessof
earthquakes in different magnitude ranges (Stepp, 1973). The recurrence relation is then
suitably modified to consider an upperbound magnitude M
max
(Chinnery and North, 1975).
Typicalrecurrencerelationshipthusobtainedforsourcezone4isshowninFig.3
bM a M N = ) ( log

Fig.3:Recurrencerelationforsourcezone4

From the recurrence relationship for a source zone with an upper bound magnitude, the
occurrence rate of earthquakes within a small magnitude range ) , (
j j j j
M M M M +
aroundcentralmagnitude canbeobtainedas
j
M
) ( ) ( ) (
j j j j j
M M N M M N M n + =
Thesenumbersaredistributedappropriatelyusingspatialsmootheningofpastseismicityover
the entire source zone, to get the required number ( )
i j
R M , within a small sourcetosite
distancerange ) , (
i i i i
R R R R + .
In step three, the probability, ( )
i j
R M T SA q , ) ( , of exceeding a response amplitude SA(T) at
naturalperiodTduetomagnitude atsourcetositedistance isobtainedbyassuming
the tofollowaGaussianprobabilitydistributionas:
j
M
i
R
) ( ln T SA

[ ]

=
) ( ln
2
) (
) ( ln
2
1
exp
) ( 2
1
) (
T SA
dx
T
T SA x
T
T SA F
In this expression ) ( ln T SA is the least squares estimate and ) (T is the associated

standard deviation of , which have been obtained from the empirical attenuation
relation due to Abrahamson and Silva(1997), defined at 28 natural periods between 0.01 sec
and 5.0 sec. The complementary of the probability
) ( ln T SA
[ ] ) (T SA p gives the required probability,
( )
i j
R M T SA q , ) ( .
Fromknowledgeof ( )
i j
R , andthenu M T SA q ) ( mber ( )
i j n
R , M obtainedasaboveforall

ted
Fig.4:Typicalhazardcurvesatselectednatural riods
TheMCEleveloftargetresponsespectraofhorizontalandverticalcomponentsofmotionwith
Fig.5:The5%dampedtargetspectraforMCEcondition
themainandsubsourc ctionofeqn.(1)is instepfourforallthe28
naturalperiodsforwhichtheselectedattenuationrelationshipisdefined.Fig.4showstypical
hazardcurvesforT=0.02,0.2,1.0and3.0secperiods,where0.02secperiodcorrespondsto
thePGA.

e,thehazardfun compu
pe

damping ratio of 5% are finally obtained by estimating the spectral amplitudes at all the
natural periods with annual probability of exceedance equal to 0.0004 (return period 2500
years). The probabilistic response spectrum of the horizontal motion thus obtained for rock
typeofsiteconditionisshowninFig.5.Thecorrespondingmeanplusonestandarddeviation
deterministic response spectrum for MCE magnitude of 7.5 at shortest distance of 14 km to
thefaultruptureplaneisalsoshowninFig.5forthepurposeofcomparison.

0.0001
0.001
A
n
n
u
a
l

P
0.01
0.1
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

o
f

E
x
c
e
e
d
a
n
c
e
P=0.0004
1E-006 1E-005 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Spectral Acceleration, g
T
=
0
.
0
2

s

(
P
G
A
)
T
=
0
.
2

s
T
=
1
.
0

s
T
=
3
.
0

s
AnnexureC

PROFORMAFORSUBMISSIONOFSTUDYREPORTTONCSDP

Thestudyreportshouldbecompiledinasingledossierasperproformagivenbelow.
Theproforma,dulyfilledandsigned,shouldbefurnishedasachecklistinthebeginningofthestudy
report.

Sl
No.
Description Compliance(Yes/No)
w.r.t.Guidelines&
ReasonsforNon
compliance
1 ProjectDetails
(a) NameoftheProject
(b) NameoftheRiveroverwhichtheprojectisproposed
(c) BriefDescriptionoftheProjectComponents
(d) LocationoftheProject:
State, District, Longitude & Latitude and Toposheet no. of each of the Project
component (e.g. Dam/Barrage/Power House etc.) for which design seismic
coefficientisrequired.Informationtobegivenintabularformat.
(e) TypeofProject:
Multipurpose or irrigation Storage (area/ volume of reservoir) or Run of the
River Schemeor Hydro Power Project (surface/ subsurface, Installed Capacity,
numberofunitsetc.)
(f) Detailsofotherprojectsinthevicinity(within100km):
Name of project, Type of hydraulic structures, and seismic parameters
(expectedPGAforMCE)forprojectsconstructed/underconstruction.
(g) PresentStatusofInvestigation:
DPRsubmitted/approved;Salientcomments/observationsonDPRforground
exploration,relevanttoSeismicdesign;statusonenvironmentclearance;pre
construction/constructionstageetc.
(h) NatureofFoundationMaterial:
Natureoffoundationmaterial(includinggeotechnicalpropertiesofrock/soil
etc.)belowdifferentsegmentsofdamandotherprojectcomponents.
(i) NameandaddressoftheProjectAuthorityandConsultants/Advisors:
Complete postal address with telephone/fax/email of Project Authority and
Consultants/ Advisor engaged by the Project Authority for various types of
inputs [geological, geophysical, geotechnical, seismotectonics, seismic design
etc]shallbegiven.
2 RegionalGeologicalandSeismoTectonicEvaluation
(ReferSection3.0oftheguidelinesfordetails)

(a) TectonicMap:
(b) Seismotectonicsection:
(c) Interpretationofregionaltectonicmechanismandotherdetails:
(d) Earthquakecatalogue:
(e) Microearthquakeinvestigations:

3 LocalGeologicSetting

(a) Geologicalmap:
(b) Surface&subsurfaceexploration:
(c) Additionalinputsonsubsurfaceconfigurationofmajorfaults:
4 Evaluationofsitespecificseismicparameters
(a) Methodologyofthestudy:
The adopted study methodology, confirming to section 4.0 of the guidelines,
should be briefly described. Any deviation from the recommended approach
shouldbepointedoutwithadequatejustifications.
(b) Evaluatedsitespecificseismicparameters:
The study should furnish the identified MCE (deterministic); recommended
response spectra for the MCE and DBE conditions; recommended horizontal
and vertical seismic coefficients along with computed natural period of the
dam; estimated duration of shaking; and acceleration time histories for both
horizontalandverticalmotions.
5 Recommendationsondesignapproach
6 SubmissionofstudyreportforNCSDPapproval

Date:
Signature&Seal
ofauthorizedrepresentative
ofProjectAuthority


AnnexureD
Bibliography

BasicEngineeringSeismology
1. Scordilis,EM(2006).EmpericalglobalrelationsconvertingM
s
amdm
b
tomomentmagnitude.Journalof
Seismology,10,225236.
DesignCriteria
2. FEMAUsersManualforRiskPrioritisationToolforDams. (2008).
3. Raphael,J.M.,1984.,Tensilestrengthofconcrete., Jour.ofAm.ConcreteInst.,81(2),158165.
4. USACE 2003. TimeHistory Dynamic Analysis of Concrete Hydraulic Structures, US Army Corps of
Engineers,ManualNo.EM111026051
5. USACE 2007. Earthquake Design and Evaluation of Concrete Hydraulic Structures, US Army Corps of
Engineers,ManualNo.EM111026053
6. Wieland, M., 2006., Earthquake Safety of Existing Dams, First European Conference on Earthquake
EngineeringandSeismology.
GenerationofSpectrumCompatibleAccelograms
7. Gupta,I.D.,Joshi, R.G.,(1993).Onsynthesizingresponsespectrumcompatibleaccelerograms,Journalof
EuropeanEarthquakeEngineering,2,2533
8. Novikova, E.I. and Trifunac.M.D., 1994., Duration of strong ground motion. Scaling in terms of
earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and geological and local soil conditions. Earthquake
Engineering&StructuralDynamics,23(6),10231043
9. Shrikhande, M and Gupta, V.K., 1996., On generating ensembles of design spectrum compatible
accelerograms.EuropeanEarthquakeEngineering,X(3):4956.
10. Trifunac,M.D.andBrady,A.G.,1975., Astudyonthedurationofstrongearthquakegroundmotion.
Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,65,581626.
GroundMotionPredictionEquations
11 Abrahamson, N.A. and Silva, W.J., 1997. Empirical response spectral attenuation relations for shallow
crustalearthquakes.SeismologicalResearchLetters,68(1):94127.
12. Boore,D.M.andAtkinson,G.M.,2008., Groundmotionpredictionequationsfortheaveragehorizontal
component of PGA, PGV, and 5%damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.01 s and 10.0 s.
EarthquakeSpectra,24(1):99138.
13. Cotton, F., Scherbaum, F., Bommer, J.J. and Bungum, H., 2006., Criteria for selecting and adjusting
groundmotion modelsfor specific target regions: Application to Central Europeandrock sites. Journal
ofSeismology,10(2):137156.
14. Graizer,V.andKalkan.E,2007.,Groundmotionattenuationmodelforpeakhorizontalaccelerationfrom
shallowcrustalearthquakes.EarthquakeSpectra,23(3):585613.
15. Graizer, V. and Kalkan.E,2009., Prediction of spectral acceleration response ordinates based on PGA
attenuation.EarthquakeSpectra,25(1):3969.
16. Scherbaum, F., Cotton.F., and Smit.P.,2004., On the use of response spectral reference data for the
selection and ranking of ground motion models for seismic hazard analysis in regions of moderate
seismicity:thecaseofrockmotion.BulletinoftheSeismologicalSocietyofAmerica,94(6):21642185.
17. Trifunac, M. D. and Lee, V.W. 1989., Empirical models for scaling pseudo relative velocity spectra of
strong earthquake accelerations in terms of magnitude, distance, site intensity and recording site
conditions.

MethodologyofHazardAssessment
18. Anderson,J.G.,1997,Benefitsofscenariogroundmotionmaps,EngineeringGeology,48(1),pp.4357.
19. Anderson, J.G., Brune, J.N., Anooshehpoor, R., Ni, S., 2000, New ground motion data and concepts in
seismichazardanalysis,CurrentScience,79(9),pp.12781290.
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Theory,andPart2,methodology,ReportNP4726,ElectricPowerResearchInstitute,PaloAlto,CA
21. Gupta, I.D. ,2002., State of the art in seismic hazard analysis, ISET J. Earthquake Engineering, 39(4),
311346
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LargeDams.
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ResearchInstitute,Oakland,California.
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`SeismicZoning(editedbyS.T.Harding),NOAATech.ReportERL267ESL30,Boulder,Colorado,USA
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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

CENTRAL WATER COMMISSION

The psuedospectral velocity is held constant at S

) is the annual occurrence rate of

] is the probability of exceeding the spectral

refers to the distance to the center of the i

, which can readily be used to

Vertical seismic coefficient: Similar steps (as for

The second step is to obtain ( )

In this expression ) ( ln T SA is the least squares estimate and ) (T is the associated

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