WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

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SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

TAKE HOME ASSIGNMENT 02

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

Take Home Assignment 02

1).A coin is tossed 100 times and results are given below.
Sample 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
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1-Getting a head. 0-Getting a tail. a).Find the probability of getting a head. Write any assumptions you have used.
P (Getting a head) =Number of event occurrences/Total number of trails = 7/100=0.07 Here experimental definition of probability has been used. In order to find that probability each an every above trail should occur in the same conditions. So that is assumed to find the probability.

b).What can you say about the coin?

The coin is a heavy biased one. There is a greater probability to getting a tail.

c).If a random variable is defined as X-number of heads find the distribution of X.

X follows a Binomial distribution with the parameters n=100 and p=0.07.

X~Bin (n, p) d).Write the probability mass function of X. P(X=x) =nCx Px (1-P) n-x n=100; x=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ,100; P=0.07 e).Find the probability of getting more than 55 heads and less than 45 heads.
P(X>55) =0
n

Cx Px (1-P) n-x

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n

2011/CS/219

P(X<45)

Cx Px (1-P) n-x

= 0.999999999999995 f).Can any other discrete distribution be used as an approximation for distribution identified in part c.What is that distribution with parameters?
Poisson distribution can be used as an approximation to the distribution in part c. {n>50; P<0.1} X~Po () =np=100*0.07=7

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g).Find the answer for part e.Using the distribution identified in part f.

x=0,1,2,..

P(X>55) = =0 P(X<45) = =1 h).Further above (f). Can be approximated to a continuous distribution. Identify that distribution with parameters.
That continuous distribution is Normal Distribution. X~N (, ) E(X) = ; V(X) =

i).Find the answer for part e.Using the distribution identified in part h.

f(x; , 2)=

=E(X); 2 =V(X);

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

P(X>55)=
= 2.4369395*10-14

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P(X<45)=
=1

j).Further above (c). Can be approximated to a continuous distribution. Identify that distribution with parameters.
That continuous distribution is Normal Distribution. X~N (np, npq) E(X) = np; V(X) = npq; q=1-p

k).Find the answer for part e.Using the distribution identified in part j.

f(x; , 2)=
=E(X); 2 =V(X);

P(X>55)=
=3.375078*10-14

P(X<45)=
=1

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

l).Comment on the three answers you got in part e, g, i and k.and critically analyze the approximations you have used. P(X>55) 0 0 2.4369395*10-14 1 3.375078*10
-14

P(X<45) O.999999999999995 1 1
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X~Bin/e X~Po/g X~NFrom Po/i X~NFrom Bin/k

According to the answers we have got, We can say getting a head less than 45 times from the 100 trails is the most possible thing and getting a head more than 55 times is something that has a very low probability. Sometimes it never happens. In the part (e) the distribution is Binomial and Probabilities have been found according to that. When it comes to the part (g) Binomial distribution is approximated to a Poisson distribution. For these kind of approximations, roughly number of trails that means n should be greater than 50(n>50) and probability of successes should be less than 0.1(P<0.1).Here n=100 and P=0.07.So this approximation is a fair.And the accuracy is high. In the part (i) Poisson distribution is approximated to a Normal distribution. In order to do that >20 for higher accuracy rate. But here =7.So the accuracy of the answers in part (i) is low considering to the part (g).Turn to part (k),Binomial distribution is approximated to a Normal distribution there. For that purpose P should be close to 0.5 and n should be greater than 10(n>10).But here P=0.07 and n=100.So there is some problem with the approximation because P is very small and it can cause the bell shape of the distribution although n=100(n is large). Sample 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0

m).Find the answers for part a ) to part l).Using the sample 2.

a).30/100=0.3

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

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Here experimental definition of probability has been used. In order to find that probability each an every above trail should occur in the same conditions. So that is assumed to find the probability b). C). The coin is a biased one. But not as much as in Sample 1. X follows a Binomial distribution with the parameters n=100 and p=0.3. Page | 6

X~Bin (n, p) d).

e).

P(X=x) =nCx Px (1-P) n-x n=100; x=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ,100; P=0.3

P(X>55)
n

Cx Px (1-P) n-x

= 5.85051059820429*10-08
P(X<45)
n

Cx Px (1-P) n-x

= 0.999999826787373 f). Poisson distribution can be used as an approximation to the distribution in part c.
X~Po () =np=100*0.3=30

g) P(X>55) =

x=0,1,2,..

=0.00395756037315298 P(X<45) = =0.993731385356166 h)

That continuous distribution is Normal Distribution. X~N (, ) E(X) = ; V(X) =

i)

f(x; , 2)=

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

=E(X); 2 =V(X);

P(X>55)=
=0.0000025051660
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P(X<45)=
= 0.99691505 j)
That continuous distribution is Normal Distribution. X~N (np, npq) E(X) = np; V(X) = npq; q=1-p

K)

f(x; , 2)=
exp=e; =E(X); 2 =V(X);

P(X>55)=
=2.4424859*10-8

P(X<45)=
=0.99946844 l). P(X>55) 5.85E-08 0.00395756 2.50517E-06 2.44E-08 P(X<45) 0.999999827 0.993731385 0.99691505 0.99946844

X~Bin/e X~Po/g X~NFrom Po/i X~NFrom Bin/k

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

From the answers which we got from e,g,i,k for the Sample 2,We can say that P(X>55) is very small but not as small as in sample 1.Here P(X<45) is very large value but not as much as in Sample 1.In the part e Binomial distribution is used to find probabilities. And it is approximated to a Poisson distribution in part g.Here n=100 and P=0.3.P is very large value considering to the Sample 1.So accuracy of the approximation has become low considering to the Sample 1.For that kind of approximation P should better be less than 0.1.When we look at part i Poisson distribution is approximated to a Normal distribution. For better accuracy should be greater than 20 and =30 here. So the accuracy of the approximation is high. But this Poisson distribution has come through a low accuracy approximation in part g.So the accuracy in part i has been damaged. In part k Binomial distribution is approximated to a Normal distribution n=100 and P=0.3 here. Hence the n is a very large value and P is a little bit close to 0.5 the accuracy of this approximation is very high considering to the damaged part g. Overall we can say accuracies of most of the approximations done in the above parts (mostly in Sample 1) are very low. But we cant find much differences among the probabilities because the number of trails is a large value (n=100).

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2).Final Examination scores in Mathematics are normally distributed and marks are given below.

81 76 73 70 62

81 76 74 70 63

81 77 74 70 64

82 77 74 71 64

82 77 74 71 65

82 78 74 71 67

82 79 75 72 68

82 79 75 72 69

83 80 75 72 69

84 80 76 73 69

37 16 40 24 42

37 22 40 28 43

37 22 41 29 44

39 23 42 30 46

52 52 49 49 50

57 52 33 61 59

57 53 34 61 59

57 53 48 62 59

58 54 48 62 60

58 55 51 62 60

a)Find the mean and the standard deviation.

=60.22=

=17.12=

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

b).Write the distribution of scores with parameters calculated in part a. Lets get the students marks as the random variable X X~N (, 2) =60.22, 2=293.0916
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Using the distribution identified above: c) Find Q1, Q2 and Q3 of the distribution with identified parameters (not using the given data) Students marks are normally distributed. Lets take 3 values called a, b, c and these are distributed in a Standard Normal Distribution.

Z=

X=

Q1=a

P(X<=a)=0.25

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

P(X<=a) =0.25 definitely a should be a minus value. So P(X<=-a)=0.25 and P(X>-a)=1-0.25=0.75 That means P(X<a)=0.75 From the above table; a=0.67 and a=-0.67 X= a=60.22+17.12 (-0.67) Page | 10

a=48.7496= Q1

Graph 1

Q2=b

P(X<=b) =0.5 X=

from the table b=0

b=60.22+17.12 (0)

b =60.22= Q2

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Graph 2

Q3=c

P(X<=c)=0.75 X=

from the table c=0.67

b=60.22+17.12 (0.67)

c=71.6904 = Q3

Graph 3

d) Find Q1, Q2 and Q3 using the given data. Compare the results you got in part c and d.

Q1=1(n+1)/4th position=49 Q2=2(n+1)/4th position=Median=62

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Q3=3(n+1)/4th position=74

Part C Q1 48.7496 Q2 60.22 Q3 71.6904

Part D 49 62 74

Difference 0.2504 1.78 2.3096

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Q1 is almost same in both parts while Q2 and Q3 are different in each part. But we cant see a huge difference of Quartiles in both parts.

e) Comment on the Q1, Q2, and Q3(try to use results in part c and d) and how marks for mathematics have distributed(Present it graphically using appropriate graph)
In the part c we get this distribution as a continuous distribution and find the boundaries of first 25% as Q1 and first 50% as Q2 and first 75% as Q3 using Standard Normal distribution and Probabilities. In part d given data is considered as discrete data set and Q1, Q2 and Q3 have been found in relevant positions. In any part we can see median of students mathematics marks is a higher value. And also lower quartile is a higher value too. So the Student marks are in a good position.

Graph 4

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

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WEERASOORIYA W.A.A.C.P.

2011/CS/219

According to the Graph 4 we can see the distribution is a little bit negatively skewed. That means most of the students have got higher marks. But we can approximate this distribution as a normal one. Because the median (62) is approximately similar to the mean (60.22) and n is a large value (n=100).

f) Find the proportion of students who got marks which is within(I).1 Standard deviation from Page | 13 the mean;
16 22 22 23 24 28 29 30 33 34 37 37 37 39 40 40 41 42 42 43 44 46 48 48 49 49 50 51 52 52 52 53 53 54 55 57 57 57 58 58 59 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 62 62 62 63 64 64 65 67 68 69 69 69 70 70 70 71 71 71 72 72 72 74 75 75 73 73 74 74 74 74 75 76 76 76 77 77 77 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 81 82 82 82 82 82 83 84

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

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For that purpose we should count the number of marks within 60.22-17.12 and 60.22+17.12 That count says 65 and relevant proportion = =0.65 Page | 14

II.2 Standard deviations from the mean;

Number of marks within 60.22-(17.12*2) and60.22+ (17.12*2) That count says 95 and relevant proportion = =0.95

III.3 Standard deviations from the mean;

Number of marks within 60.22-(17.12*3) and60.22+ (17.12*3) That count says 100 and relevant proportion = =1.00

IV.Find out about the rule that discuss about the above three parts ((i), (ii), (iii)). If a distribution is approximately a normal one, then about 68% of the data values are within one standard deviation of the mean, about 95% are within two standard deviation of the mean and about 99.7% are within three standard deviation of the mean. This is known as 68-95-99.7 rule or the empirical rule. So this is the rule connected with above three parts.

THE END.

SCS1009 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

TAKE HOME ASSIGNMENT 02

11002192