Sie sind auf Seite 1von 16

2009 | REAL ESTATE FORECAST

SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA

Office

Industrial

Retail

Investment
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

Presented by
Meeting the needs of each client Grubb & Ellis San Francisco
415.433.1050
Grubb & Ellis Company pioneered sophisticated real estate market research, and
Grubb & Ellis Walnut Creek
925.939.3500
today we continue to lead the industry in providing vital market information and
Grubb & Ellis San Jose
insight on timely topics that may affect your real estate needs. Global economic 408.425.5900
Grubb & Ellis Redwood City
trends, domestic legislative changes, corporate performance – these and other 650.596.2460

factors affect the demand for and value of commercial real estate.

Our dedicated research staff, which spans major markets throughout North

America, has developed a strong foundation upon which our professionals create

innovative solutions for their clients. You can access this information by visiting

our 2009 Forecast Web site: www.grubb-ellis.com/research/forecast2009.

Download our national overview or zero in on specific property types in your

markets of interest. Print a report for a single market, or customize a book to suit

your needs. We recognize that each of our clients is unique, and are committed to

delivering the information you need to achieve your business objectives.

Local Forecast Reports Global Forecast Report Office Locations Get Acrobat Reader Exit to Corporate Site

Grubb & Ellis provides real


estate market information for
more than 100 local markets
throughout North America.
Use the map to zero in on the
office, industrial, retail, multi
housing, land, and investment
overviews for your areas of
interest. Print a single report
to suit your needs

For a broader perspective,


download the U.S. and global
forecast reports summarizing
our expectations for the
coming year.

Please contact your local Grubb & Ellis office for further information about this regional forecast or see the list of contributors.
Reproduction in whole or part is permitted only with the written consent of Grubb & Ellis Company. Some of the data in this report has been gathered from third party
sources and has not been independently verified by Grubb & Ellis. Grubb & Ellis makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof. Note:
Year-end 2008 numbers include estimates for the fourth quarter that were derived in November. Final published numbers may vary slightly. Totals may not add precisely
due to rounding.

© 2008 Grubb & Ellis


To Grubb & Ellis Clients and Colleagues:
As we end 2008, it is becoming extremely clear that we are in the midst of what could be a
lengthy and prolonged recession. Actually, our outlook for the commercial real estate industry
changed dramatically during the third quarter of 2008 as the credit market unrest that first
gripped the national economy in August 2007 escalated into a full-blown global financial crisis.

Although it is difficult to predict just how long and severe the current downturn will be, we
believe that we have not seen the end of weakening consumer and business confidence,
slowing manufacturing activity, and rising unemployment that is currently plaguing our
economy. These are all factors that impact every aspect of the commercial real estate industry.

Within the commercial real estate market, the investment sector was the first to feel the effects
of the credit crisis, and as a result property sales were down by two-thirds during the first three
quarters of 2008 as compared with the same period in 2007. As I write this, access to capital
remains extremely limited, and the leasing market is starting to more severely feel the effects
of the economic uncertainty. Needless to say, this is probably the most challenging market we
have experienced since the early 1990s. I can say that it is certainly the most challenging time
I’ve seen in my 30 years in the real estate industry.

At this point we believe it most likely will be late 2010 before we begin to see a meaningful
recovery throughout the commercial real estate industry. However, there are some bright
spots. Low oil prices and interest rates will allow some commercial real estate sectors to
recover quicker than others. And if you are a tenant with a requirement or an investor with
cash, 2009 will offer considerable opportunity.

At Grubb & Ellis Company, we believe that within a challenging market there are opportunities.
Our goal, as always, is to help our clients take advantage of them. We look forward to
discussing the specifics of our 2009 Forecast with you, and to helping you meet your real estate
goals now and into the future.

Sincerely,

Gary H. Hunt
Interim Chief Executive Officer
Grubb & Ellis Company

Table of Contents
Grubb & Ellis goes above and beyond in-depth local market research and analysis. As our clients’ Office 2
needs have evolved from bricks and mortar requirements to encompass complex global real estate Industrial 4
Retail 6
issues, our industry subject matter experts contribute focused, specialized expertise to the process.
Investment 7
This added layer of analysis gives clients a more complete picture of the environment in which they Company Profile 9
operate and helps us leverage our market data to help owners, users and investors construct smart, Grubb & Ellis Research 11
innovative solutions to today’s real estate needs. Office Directory 12
Contributors and Sources 13

© 2008 Grubb & Ellis San Francisco Bay Area l 1


SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
Office

Weakening tenant demand will result in a softer office market in 2009. Sublease space and vacancy rates
are predicted to rise while absorption and rental rates will decline. Market fundamentals will deteriorate,
albeit less dramatically than they did during the dot-com bust.

Vacancy Rates Market Overview Although the unique industry base inherent
Year-End Challenging economic conditions will trans- to the Bay Area will prevent market funda-
30%
late into a difficult year for owners of mentals from deteriorating to the degree
20% commercial real estate in the Bay Area. other major markets will, the ailing economy
Oakland and San Mateo were the first will result in a slowdown in real estate trans-
10%
markets to show signs of deterioration, actions. Tenants will take longer to evaluate
0%
posting negative net absorption for 2008. lease opportunities in the face of uncertain
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
■ Oakland/ ■ San Francisco ■ San Jose/ ■ San Francisco/ The stronger markets of San Jose and San revenue projections. Financing challenges
Eastbay Silicon Mid-Peninsula
Valley
Francisco finished 2008 with positive will hinder demand as well. As demand
Source: Grubb & Ellis
absorption, but are forecasted to record slows and sublease space increases, down-
negative net absorption in 2009. The slow- ward pressure on rents will escalate. Average
Historical Absorption
Year-End (in Thousand SF) down in consumer spending and Class A asking rents declined in all Bay Area
5,000 deteriorating job market, coupled with the office markets during 2008 and steeper
evaporation of business loans is sure to reductions are anticipated. Rents are
0
negatively impact businesses throughout projected to decline by 12 percent for the
-5,000 the Bay Area in 2009. entire Bay Area in 2009. Landlords will
aggressively seek tenants by offering
-10,000
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
In addition to the reduction in loan dollars
concessions such as free rent.
■ Oakland/ ■ San Francisco ■ San Jose/ ■ San Francisco/ available from struggling financial institu-
Eastbay Silicon Mid-Peninsula
Source: Grubb & Ellis Valley tions, an impending slowdown of venture Confidence among developers has dissi-
capital investment will also adversely affect pated and several speculative office
Asking Rental Rates tenant demand, particularly in the Silicon buildings have been scrapped. Construction
Year-End ($/SF/Yr. Full Service) Valley. During 2009, venture capital invest- activity, which was modest to begin with
ment levels will be driven significantly by the due to geographical land constraints, will
$80
cleantech sector, which according to the decline to minimal levels in 2009. Market
$40 National Venture Capital Association, “will fundamentals will weaken as bankruptcies,
continue to grow despite economic woes mergers and tenant contractions transpire.
$0 and could become the top investment Vacancy in the Bay Area office markets is
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
■ Oakland/ ■ San Francisco ■ San Jose/ ■ San Francisco/ sector for the venture capital industry by projected to rise throughout 2009. Although
Eastbay Silicon Mid-Peninsula
Source: Grubb & Ellis Valley 2012.” Already the high-tech capital of the Bay Area commercial real estate is in for a
world, the Bay Area will benefit in the long rough ride in 2009, the anticipated down-
run as the global hub of the emerging clean- turn is predicted to be less severe than the
tech and biotech industries. Revitalization of one brought on by the dot-com collapse. A
San Francisco’s Mission Bay neighborhood bottom in sales pricing and rents is antici-
has been led by the development of pated to be reached in late 2009, paving the
biotechnology friendly office buildings in way for a comeback as capital access returns
which UCSF, Phizer, FibroGen and Merck- and economic recovery ensues.
owned Sirna Therapeutics have committed
to space.

2 l San Francisco Bay Area © 2008 Grubb & Ellis


San Francisco vacancy to continue to rise as 1.5 million them to shop the market for the best deals
Confidence in San Francisco’s office market square feet slated for completion in 2009 and landlords to court tenants with more
has deteriorated in the face of a global comes online. As the national government’s concessions as well as continuing to offer
economic downturn. From a leasing perspec- $740 billion bailout plan helps to free up short-term deal options.
tive, the effects of the recession will capital, tenants that have been sitting on the
materialize in increased sublease space, rising sidelines will be able to benefit from quality San Francisco/Mid-Peninsula

vacancy, lower tenant demand, deterioration space at lower asking rates as landlords add 2008 was the first year since 2003 to show a
in rental rates and emptying of the develop- more incentives to fill vacancies. Despite the real pullback in the San Francisco/Mid-
ment pipeline. Capital access challenges are negativity surrounding the economy, Silicon Peninsula office market. While 2007 was a
expected to hinder business operations and Valley has a silver lining when compared to time for landlords to test tenants’ tolerance
office expansions substantially. Available the rest of the nation. for escalating rents, 2008 and 2009 will bring
sublease space, which increased in 2008, will more opportunities and variety to the
flood the market in 2009 forcing landlords to Oakland/East Bay market. With a limited number of financial
lower rental rates on competitive space. The mortgage meltdown coupled with the tenants, and high-tech employment contin-
Although a downturn is expected, market credit crisis weighed down the East Bay uing to serve as the anchor for a large
fundamentals in San Francisco are predicted office market throughout 2008. Many portion of demand, the Peninsula office
to hold up better than in other major markets companies remained very cautious market will likely rebound ahead of the rest
due to the city’s unique tenant base and regarding their real estate commitments of the Bay Area.
construction limitations. and adopted a wait-and-see attitude which
With only one major construction project
translated into four consecutive quarters of
scheduled to complete in 2008, and a nearly
San Jose/Silicon Valley increased vacancy and a softening of overall
empty pipeline, the San Francisco/Mid-
Silicon Valley’s office market responded to rents. As the national economic challenges
Peninsula is positioned well to weather the
the economic challenges of 2008 with an spill over into 2009, look for sublease space
current economic downturn. Expect rents to
increase in vacancy of approximately 50 to rise, asking rental rate erosion and
soften and vacancy to increase, however we
basis points per quarter, a shift from the vacancy to continue its climb upward. As
should not see as deep a decline as in the
downward trend that began the first quarter tenants jump into the driver’s seat, watch for
previous down cycle.
of 2006. Going forward we anticipate

Key Leasing Transactions


2008
Lessee Lessor Property Submarket Size (SF)
Robert Half Sunset Land Company 2613 Camino Ramon San Ramon 236,000
Google Inc Prime Property Fund 345 Spear St South Financial 195,654
California State Automobile Association Equity Office Properties Trust 3055 Oak Rd (Station Landing) Contra Costa Centre 166,204
PG&E Nearon Enterprises 3401 Crow Canyon Rd San Ramon 140,000
SF Public Utilities Commission Metcalf Family Trust 1155 Market St Civic Center 140,000
Pfizer Inc Alexandria Real Estate 455 Mission Bay Blvd Mission Bay 105,000
Trend Micro Blue Coat Systems 10201 N De Anza Blvd Cupertino 104,990
Gunderson, Dettmer, Stough Starwood Capital 1200 Seaport Blvd Redwood City 98,022
Rearden Commerce Inc Harvest Properties 1001-1051 E Hillsdale Blvd Foster City 91,363
Motorola Ariba 809 11th Ave Sunnyvale 91,000
Lab 126 Prometheus 20450 Stevens Creek Blvd Cupertino 70,000
Sony Ericsson LBA Realty 100 Redwood Shores Pkwy Redwood City 62,721

© 2008 Grubb & Ellis San Francisco Bay Area l 3


SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
Industrial

Despite the challenges currently facing the economy, the Bay Area industrial market is
poised to remain healthy throughout 2009. The market will experience demand but deal
velocity will be slower than it has been over that past two years.

Vacancy Rates Market Overview a market driver in both the East Bay and
All Product Types, Year-End Despite the negative national economic Silicon Valley markets. This is in comparison
landscape, two major drivers helped main- to the Peninsula where sublease space hit
20%
tain positive industrial momentum the market due to rising travel time and the
throughout 2008: clean technology activity increased cost of fuel. Grubb & Ellis expect
10%
and the decreasing dollar, which increased warehouse vacancy on the Peninsula to
0%
exports. This was in contrast to the office and increase over the next couple of years while
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
■ Oakland/ ■ San Jose/ retail sectors, which experienced increased the East Bay and Silicon Valley markets
Eastbay Silicon Valley
vacancy in the latter half of the year due to remain steady.
Source: Grubb & Ellis
frozen credit markets, negative GDP and
Moving forward into 2009 Grubb & Ellis
reductions in workforce.
Historical Absorption anticipates asking rents will remain steady in
All Product Types, Year-End (in Thousand SF)
Clean technology company activity in Silicon the East Bay and slightly decrease in Silicon
10,000 Valley and the East Bay not only maintained Valley and Peninsula as landlords hold off on
positive market momentum but also helped raising rates until the market regains its
-10,000 to reduce any large general industrial and balance. Tenants will remain cautious about
R&D/flex blocks of space that had been sitting making moves until the government’s
-30,000 vacant or given back to the market. efforts begin freeing up credit, reassuring
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
■ Oakland/Eastbay ■ San Jose/Silicon Valley Approximately two-thirds of the leases them that it is time to come off the sidelines
Source: Grubb & Ellis completed in Silicon Valley in the third and move forward with expansion plans.
quarter, over 750,000 square feet of gross While there is still considerable uncertainty
Warehouse Asking Rental Rates absorption, were done by clean technology in the market, space options in the Bay Area
Year-End ($/SF/Yr. Triple Net) tenants. Furthermore, two of the biggest markets are extremely tight and landlords
$12
deals inked in 2008 in the East Bay market are advised to work with tenants that have
$8 were done by clean technology tenants. upcoming lease expirations during these
turbulent times.
$4 A weakening dollar that buoyed exports
overseas coupled with a desirable Bay Area Limited industrial base inventory along with
$0
00 02 04 06 08P 09F location resulted in positive momentum in almost no new construction coming online
■ Oakland/ ■ San Jose/
Eastbay Silicon Valley warehouse/distribution space. A constrained means there is little to compete with existing
Source: Grubb & Ellis
product type, warehouse proved to be inventory. No new construction is expected in
the Silicon Valley or the East Bay in 2009 and
Key Leasing Transactions
2008 the Peninsula expects to see 78,000 square
Lessee Lessor Property Submarket Size (SF) feet. Going forward we anticipate a new
Fed Ex LBA Realty 8333 Central Avenue Newark 320,875
economic playing field, new interest in
Coaster Prologis 6753 Mowry Avenue Newark 268,538
Super Micro Pinole Point 48350 Fremont Blvd Fremont 246,450 sustaining U.S. jobs versus offshoring work, as
BioRad Laboratories Sares Regis Group 2100-2900 Atlas Rd Richmond 116,500
well as continued technology innovation and
Optisolar PNK, LLC 31164-31172 Huntwood Ave Hayward 60,000
environmental initiatives will help the Bay
Area weather through the storm.

4 l San Francisco Bay Area © 2008 Grubb & Ellis


San Jose/Silicon Valley Oakland/East Bay
The Silicon Valley industrial market remained Despite the national economic turmoil experi-
healthy throughout 2008 despite national enced this year, the East Bay continued to post
economic challenges. Not since the last positive market performance. This marks the
recession in 2001, which hit the technology fourth consecutive year of positive net
sector hard and ultimately affected the absorption in the East Bay. Although the trans-
R&D/flex product type, has industrial seen an action volume was not as high as the previous
increase in vacancy. In this economic down- years, it did help to push vacancy down 40
turn, real estate-related industries and the basis points to 3.5 percent. The primary driver
office sector were affected, while technology for this positive net absorption was ware-
companies kept market fundamentals house space, which accounted for well over
strong in industrial. 50 percent of the positive net absorption in
the market. Despite the fact that rental rates
Clean technology tenants actively leased
were escalating through the entire market in
space though at 2008 signing average lease
2007, rents remained relatively flat in 2008.
terms of 52 months. This could mean that in
The construction pipeline, which has been
the next three to four years as leases expire
empty for three consecutive years, will remain
and these growing companies seek to
empty in 2009 as land continues to be scarce.
expand, landlords offering large blocks of
space can benefit from the opportunity. But, Watch for steady transactions and flat rental
they but will need to offer bigger tenant rates to continue throughout 2009.
improvement packages to accommodate The market will experience demand but deal
clean tech’s requirement of heavy power and velocity will be slower than it has been over
large lab space. This trend coupled with no the past two years. As we advance through
new developments projected to complete in next year look for industrial investors to
the near future will offer nothing to compete gravitate toward markets with consistent
with the already limited available inventory. market performance, such as the East Bay, and
While this is positive for the industrial sector, avoid more volatile markets thus eliminating
it is unlikely that it will totally escape the unnecessary risk. Although the space options
downturn in the national and global in the East Bay market are extremely tight,
economies. While industrial demand is often landlords would be advised to work with their
said to be a lagging economic indicator, into tenants that have upcoming lease expirations
2009 we expect to see slight vacancy during these turbulent times. The Port of
increases and rental rates decreases Oakland along with the Oakland Airport
although not to the degree experienced in continue to identify this market as one of the
other commercial real estate sectors. key global pathways, setting the East Bay
apart as one of the most sought after
industrial markets in the country.

© 2008 Grubb & Ellis San Francisco Bay Area l 5


SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
Retail

Brace for a rough retail year in 2009 throughout the Bay Area - consumer confidence
that is in the dumps as well as diminished consumer demand and the credit crisis coupled with a challenged
housing market will put pressure on tenants as well as landlords.

Median Household Income The wave of growth that Bay Area retail has With stringent lending requirements and a
2008 (in Thousands) been enjoying over the past few years came weakened dollar, retail is in store for a rough

U.S. Average
crashing down in 2008. The mortgage melt- road ahead. As a result of these turbulent
down coupled with the financial crisis that times some retailers have already filed for
San Francisco/
Oakland/ the nation is wrestling with has stifled bankruptcy protection. Examples include
East Bay
San Jose/
consumer demand and confidence. Circuit City, Mervyn’s and Sharper Image.
Silicon Valley
Consumers have clamped down on While other companies, such as the Gap
$0 $40 $80
spending in reaction to tightening credit, have announced plans to significantly

Source: Claritas
mounting layoffs and stock market losses. reduce the number of stores nationally.
Backing this up is the International Council This will put additional pressure on
of Shopping Centers Chain Stores report landlords who are already feeling the
Typical Rent
In-line Shop Space, 2008 ($/SF/Yr. Triple Net) noting the weakest retail comparable-store pain in the market.
sales performance in more than 35 years.
U.S. Average The Bay Area retail market will remain
Additionally the Conference Board
San Francisco challenged throughout 2009. Watch for
Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to
Oakland retail consolidation to continue. Rents will
its lowest level in the 40-year history of the
San Jose/ continue to decline as vacancies climb
Silicon Valley survey. Another market indicator to watch is
upward. Landlords will give more
$0 $40 $80 Mortgage Equity Withdrawals (MEW), which
concessions to tenants either in the form of
measures the availability of home equity
Source: Grubb & Ellis higher tenant improvement allowances or
through borrowing and when plotted
free rent. As people still need essentials,
against retail expenditures, it is evident these
Retail Square Feet Per Capita neighborhood centers with grocery
activities are in lockstep with one another.
2008 and drug stores should fare best during this
Harder to attain credit and reduced net
U.S. Average time. Neighborhood shopping centers
equity values have translated into less
San Francisco located near high-income areas are also
availability of MEW credit and a reduction in
expected to weather the storm in 2009.
Oakland retail sales. The more discretionary in nature
All signs point to another rough year for
San Jose/ the items seem to be, the less people will
Silicon Valley retail, but these vacancies will provide better
40 44 48 spend on them in times of stress and
real estate opportunities and less
especially in periods where one has
Source: Grubb & Ellis, CoStar, Claritas competition for some retailers.
difficulties extracting their home equity.
The difficult mortgage environment and the
Tenants Expanding or Downsizing substantial reduction in home values
2009
Expanding or New to Market Downsizing combined to greatly curtail borrowing and
Cellular & Accessory Stores Auto Dealerships as a result, discretionary spending.
Casual Dining Restaurants Department Stores
Health & Personal Care High End Restaurant
Wholesale Clubs Home Furnishings
Building Materials, Garden & Supply Clothing & Accessory Stores

6 l San Francisco Bay Area © 2008 Grubb & Ellis


SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
Investment

The credit crunch effectively ended an incredible five-year run in pricing and activity.
With capital availability likely to remain limited in 2009, look for heavily leveraged investors
to unload properties to cash rich buyers at reduced prices.

Average Capitalization Rates Market Overview property sectors. Fallout from home foreclo-
Closed Sales (2008) Upheaval in the financial markets has sures in the Bay Area should remain
8% greatly disrupted commercial real estate relatively restrained compared to some
6% investment throughout the Bay Area, overbuilt Southern California markets.
4% creating a bleak outlook for 2009. The credit
Perspective buyers can be assured that
2% crisis put an end to the record pace of deal
investing in Bay Area real estate represents a
0%
velocity achieved in 2007. Investment
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel tremendous long-term opportunity. San
transactions totaling approximately $5
Francisco is considered the West Coast’s
billion closed in 2008, an 82 percent decline
Source: Real Capital Analytics
premier office market and one of the most
in dollar volume from 2007. Marketed
dynamic real estate investment markets in
investment opportunities are scarce
Property Sales Volume the world. Technology companies continue
(in Billions) heading into 2009 as uncertainty with
$40,000 to drive demand in San Jose where employ-
regards to pricing runs wild. Lack of credit
ment and income growth are robust.
$30,000 availability in the foreseeable future will
Oakland/East Bay remains a vital Bay Area hub
$20,000 result in a significant slowing of capital into
housing the fourth largest port in the nation.
real estate, keeping the flow of new acqui-
$10,000 Beyond local economic strength, investment
sitions minimal throughout 2009.
$0 properties are situated to benefit from the
02 04 06 08P 09F Leveraged buyers are expected to re-
■ Office ■ Industrial ■ Retail ■ Apartment ■ Hotel Bay Area’s standing as a coastal global
emerge in 2010 when capital access
Source: Real Capital Analytics pathway. Large familiar markets like San
improves. Even cash-rich public pensions
Francisco are favored in the typical flight-to-
will have limited capacity for new invest-
Sales by Property Type ments in 2009 as plunging stock and bond
quality that occurs during a downturn.
2008
values have significantly reduced their An upheaval among highly leveraged
asset bases. Across the board, companies investors will create opportunities moving
Apartment 21.3% ■
Hotel 0.4% ■ have geared up for recession by reserving forward. Cash investors will be afforded open-
Industrial 8.9% ■
Office 57.7% ■
cash. This new focus on solvency and cash ings to purchase distressed properties at
Retail 11.7% ■ management will hinder acquisition market lows. Ultimately prices are expected
activity for many investment companies in to decline 20 to 30 percent from the highs
the near term. achieved in 2007. Investors willing and able to
Source: Real Capital Analytics
take a risk by acquiring property at reduced
While financial crisis grips the nation and
prices in 2009 will likely position themselves
negatively affects real estate investment
to benefit greatly when recovery ensues.
nationwide, the strength of the local
economy should help Bay Area properties
withstand a difficult period. The region’s
uniquely diversified economy is predicted to
outperform the national average, helping all

© 2008 Grubb & Ellis San Francisco Bay Area l 7


SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
Investment
continued

San Francisco San Jose/Silicon Valley investment levels enjoyed just last year.
The Urban Land Institute ranks San Francisco Overall commercial property sales in 2008 Looking toward 2009, values will continue to
as the premier city for development and the continued to fall with transaction volume adjust downward as a result of the credit
second-best city for commercial investment through August off 75 percent compared to debacle; cap rates will continue to climb by
in its Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2009 the same period in 2007. Towards the end of at least 25 to 50 basis points creating the
report, noting, “The City by the Bay never 2008, buyers and sellers hadn’t yet settled on opportunity for better returns and the ability
strays far from the top of the survey, a new price level and the gap between to acquire properties at below current
featuring a Pacific gateway with barriers to offers and actual pricing remained wide. Into replacement costs. Both regional and institu-
entry and quality of life, comparing favorably 2009, the investment market should begin tional investors that have been sitting on the
to any other 24-hour market.” While property to see slight improvement as the govern- sidelines in the latter half of 2008 and begin-
values did fall in 2008, the ultimate decline is ment helps to free up capital and property ning of 2009 will take the lead in those
not expected to be as dramatic as it was values should decrease allowing opportu- opportunities. Back are the days of lower
during the 2000-2001 tech bust. Values are nity for buyers with cash on hand to pick up loan-to-value ratios, higher debt coverage
predicted to find a bottom approximately 20 quality space. Owners should continue to ratios and stronger tenant evaluation.
to 30 percent below highs reached in 2007. hold onto investments in 2009.
Land constraints create a barrier to new San Francisco/Mid-Peninsula

construction; helping maintain the value of Oakland/East Bay The San Francisco/Mid-Peninsula investment
existing investment quality properties. What a difference a year makes with 2008 market has been hit significantly by a much
investment transaction volumes down tighter credit market and an economic
significantly compared to the robust decline. Only a handful of properties traded
hands in 2008, and with rents on the decline
Key Investment Transactions buyers and sellers alike will likely adopt a
2008
Property Property Price wait-and-see stance. Watch for the gap
Buyer Type Name City Size (SF) (millions) between asking and offering prices to close
CIM Group Office CIM Group Portfolio Oakland 1,739,125 $412.5
LaSalle Bank JV Retail Bay Street Emeryville Emeryville 383,055 $234.0 in 2009 and for cap rates to shift upward.
Harvest Properties JV INVESCO Office Parkside Towers Foster City 398,000 $179.8
Legacy Partners Office Ygnacio Center Walnut Creek 499,231 $174.3 Considering the ongoing turbulence among
CBRE Investors Office 500 Terry Francois San Francisco 291,000 $149.0
U.S. capital markets, it is anticipated that
Thor Equities Office Phelan Bldg San Francisco 267,446 $130.0
PNC Realty Investors Office 199 Freemont St San Francisco 396,200 $127.4 property values and velocity will fall in the
VNO Patson Van Ness Holdings Office CSAA Portfolio San Francisco 597,574 $118.5
near-term future. As capital access returns
United Dominion Realty Trust Apartment Edgewater Luxury Apts San Francisco 157,135 $115.0
Shorenstein Properties and the economy begins a slow recovery
JV SKS Development Industrial Oyster Point Bus Park South San Francisco 404,215 $84.0
Angelo Gordon cycle, the Mid-Peninsula investment market
JV Centrum Properties Industrial SFO Logistics Center South San Francisco 568,823 $80.0 will be well positioned for a comeback.
LBA Realty Office 4900 Johnson Dr Pleasanton 288,000 $66.5
Eden Township
Healthcare District Office Dublin Gateway Medical Center Dublin 115,000 $60.0
Prado Group JV Felson Cos Apartment Nob Hill Tower San Francisco 108,000 $37.2
Nearon Enterprises General Industrial Sycamore Drive Milpitas 197,604 $22.0
Sares-Regis Group Warehouse 48350 Fremont Blvd Fremont 246,500 $21.0
Intuitive Surgical R&D/Flex 950 Kifer Rd Sunnyvale 163,286 $16.5
Nearon Enterprises Warehouse 940 Remillard Ct San Jose 166,600 $16.0

8 l San Francisco Bay Area © 2008 Grubb & Ellis


COMPANY PROFILE

Grubb & Ellis is a real estate services and investment firm committed to
identifying and creating business and investment opportunities through
real estate, uniquely tailored to our clients’ individual needs.

Grubb & Ellis is one of the largest and most Grubb & Ellis has the people, platform and Structured Around the Needs of Our Clients
respected commercial real estate services best-in-class processes to deliver superior Our unique, comprehensive platform includes
and investment companies. With more than service whether a client needs help with a transaction services, management services,
130 owned and affiliate offices worldwide, single investment property or multiple corporate services and a wide range of
Grubb & Ellis offers property owners, corpo- global facilities. Our consistent performance investment programs.
rate occupants and investors comprehensive grounded in keen market insight plays a role
Transaction Services
integrated real estate solutions, including in our success and is recognized by our
Grubb & Ellis has one of the largest and most
transaction, management, consulting and clients. For example, in 2008, Grubb & Ellis
experienced real estate brokerage sales
investment services supported by propri- was honored with Microsoft Corporation’s
forces in the country. Our teams of specialists
etary market research and extensive local Environmental Award for our successful
cover all aspects of commercial real estate
market expertise. Grubb & Ellis and its efforts to reduce the company’s impact on
and work closely with owners, occupants
subsidiaries are leading sponsors of real the environment. This commitment to
and investors to assess the ways in which real
estate investment programs that provide continuous improvement and the develop-
estate issues relate to – and contribute to –
individuals and institutions the opportunity ment of programs and initiatives designed to
an organization's strategic business objec-
to invest in a broad range of real estate meet a client’s individual needs are the
tives. Last year, Grubb & Ellis and its affiliates
investment vehicles, including tax-deferred driving forces behind our more than 50 years
completed 16,250 transactions valued at
1031 tenant-in-common exchanges, public of service excellence.
more than $22 billion.
non-traded real estate investment trusts and
real estate investment funds. Seamless Integration of Real Estate
Transaction services include:
Products and Services
Research plays an integral role in our busi- Grubb & Ellis is a unique company that • Agency leasing
ness, and our professionals have earned a brings together traditional transaction and
• Tenant representation
reputation for providing informed solutions management real estate services with inno-
• Consulting services
that combine local market knowledge with vative investment programs offered through
detailed analysis. Strong knowledge about Grubb & Ellis Realty Investors. Our brokerage • Valuation consulting

general economic issues and global trends – network offers insight into the pool of assets • Retail services
combined with specialized expertise for nationwide, maximizing investment oppor- • Institutional investment services
property types such as office, industrial, retail, tunities for program investors. In turn, the
• Private capital investment services
land, medical office, multifamily and hospi- property and asset management services of
• Site selection
tality – provides our clients the information the company seek to drive value to each
they need to achieve their corporate and property, capitalizing on opportunities from
investment goals. acquisition to disposition – whether it be for
our own portfolio or on behalf of our clients.

© 2008 Grubb & Ellis San Francisco Bay Area l 9


COMPANY PROFILE
continued

Grubb & Ellis was the recipient of


Microsoft’s Environmental Award in 2008

Global Client Services Corporate services include: Investment programs include:


As one of the nation’s largest full-service • Consulting services • 1031 tenant-in-common exchanges
commercial real estate firms, Grubb & Ellis
• Real property and lease administration • Public non-traded real estate
delivers integrated property, facility and asset
• Retail services investment trusts (REITs)
management services focused on cost-effi-
• Strategic planning • Limited liability companies
cient operations, tenant retention and
increasing property values to a host of corpo- • Tenant representation • Wealth management
rate and institutional clients. The company • Valuation services • Institutional investments
and its affiliates manage a diverse portfolio • Mutual funds
• Site selection
totaling more than 275 million square feet of
• Project management • Securities separate accounts and funds
space. This portfolio includes headquarters, This is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer
• Portfolio rationalization to buy any security. Such an offer may be made only by
facilities and Class A office space for major means of an offering document. Investors should read
corporations, as well as industrial, manufac- the offering materials and review the risks associated
• Disposition services with any offering prior to making an investment and
turing and warehouse facilities, data centers, should be able to afford the loss of their entire invest-
Investment Programs ment. Securities offered through Grubb & Ellis Securities,
retail properties, medical buildings and Inc. member FINRA/SIPC.
Grubb & Ellis is one of the nation’s leading
multifamily assets for real estate occupants sponsors of innovative commercial real Our Commitment
and investors. Additionally, Grubb & Ellis estate investment programs. Grubb & Ellis A strong, integrated delivery platform
provides consulting services that help clients Realty Investors, the company’s real estate combined with the expertise of our profes-
better understand their real estate portfolio, investment and asset management sionals offers our clients a partnership unlike
the current operating environment, and subsidiary, structures, acquires, manages and any other in the industry. We bring strategic
future opportunities that exist through smart, disposes of real estate for its clients. Through thinking and exceptional service to each and
strategic planning. Private Client Accounts, the firm offers high every engagement. We deliver perspective,
net worth investors a comprehensive insight and innovation to help our clients
Management services include:
program to build or expand their commercial achieve their desired outcomes. And we
• Property management
real estate portfolio to meet their investment execute effectively and efficiently, enabling
• Facility management objectives. In total, Grubb & Ellis Realty us to form long-lasting collaborative relation-
• Asset management Investors oversees a portfolio of assets valued ships with property owners, investors and
• Business and fulfillment services in excess of $6.5 billion located throughout corporate users of real estate.
more than 30 states, and has completed
• Consulting services To locate a Grubb & Ellis office near you,
acquisition and disposition volume totaling
• Project/construction management please visit www.grubb-ellis.com/offices.
more than $11 billion on behalf of program
• Engineering services investors since its founding in 1998.

10 l San Francisco Bay Area © 2008 Grubb & Ellis


GRUBB & ELLIS RESEARCH

Grubb & Ellis is one of the most widely quoted sources when
it comes to real estate market trends and their implications.

For more than 50 years, Grubb & Ellis has professional research managers to direct that analyze local and national market
made real estate market research a corner- the company’s research function, which is conditions throughout North America by
stone of its business. The company has built widely viewed as having the most accu- product type, a Weekly Market Insight
a reputation for consistently delivering some rate grass-roots level data in the industry. electronic communication on a timely
of the highest quality research reports in the Incoming research analysts and brokers economic or real estate-related topic,
industry and regularly provides expert are trained to understand the nuances of quarterly capital markets reports and
commentary on the forces shaping the the real estate cycle, inflection points in white papers on issues that are important
commercial real estate landscape. As the the cycle, leading indicators, and the to our clients.
issues facing real estate owners, corporate actions and advice that are appropriate for • Our real estate professionals, whose famil-
users and investors grow increasingly each phase of the cycle. iarity with the people and the property in
complex, sound research and analysis • Our systems used to compile, maintain, their submarkets yields a daily, in-the-
become even more vital, and our research is analyze and disseminate our research. trenches grasp of changing market
a tool our professionals rely on to help their Grubb & Ellis was a pioneer in the field of conditions. The creation of market intelli-
clients solve real estate issues, uncover computerized market research and gence is a team effort, with knowledge
opportunities and achieve larger organiza- analysis and continues to make invest- flowing constantly between our research
tional objectives. ments to improve and enhance the teams, sales professionals and investment
information available. Most of the specialists. This knowledge is integrated
Grubb & Ellis research reports span from
company’s offices have been tracking with our professionals’ insight and experi-
coast to coast and around the globe. We
data for more than two decades. In addi- ence, forming a solid foundation from
cover big-picture economic trends as well as
tion to subscribing to the top property which to advise clients, and giving Grubb
specific drivers of local market demand for
databases in the industry, Grubb & Ellis has & Ellis and its clients a competitive edge.
space. We provide standard real estate statis-
built a proprietary, centralized Web-resi- Among our clients, we have seen an
tics and also respond to significant
dent data warehouse to track its increased demand for more accurate data
developments, such as the credit crisis of
property-specific data, including property and sharper analysis fueled by increased
2008. Our research is used by our clients, the
details, images, available space, leasing market transparency and a strong need for
media and the industry at large to help
and sales comparables, and tenant infor- accountability. Real estate investors as well
explain current conditions and predict what
mation, all in an easy-to-use format. This as corporations in all sectors of the economy
the future has in store.
sophisticated system is based on a are closely examining their real estate strate-
Grubb & Ellis leverages four integrated rigorous set of research standards gies and searching for timely and smart
components to create our unique and designed to ensure that data are consis- market research that will help guide and
comprehensive insights: tent across markets. support their decisions. Providing this infor-
• Our reports and publications through mation is one of the things Grubb & Ellis
• Our professional research managers and
which we translate our extensive data- does best.
their staff, whose critical function it is to
bases into analysis, insights and
build the base of market intelligence in To keep abreast of research disseminated
actionable recommendations for our
each office and provide published reports by Grubb & Ellis, please visit
clients. In addition to our annual national
and custom analyses to our clients. Grubb www.grubb-ellis.com/research.
and local forecast reports, Grubb & Ellis
& Ellis pioneered the concept of hiring
produces quarterly Market Trends reports

© 2008 Grubb & Ellis San Francisco Bay Area l 11


OFFICE DIRECTORY

Corporate San Jose Indiana Nebraska Oklahoma Washington


Headquarters 408.452.5900 Indianapolis Lincoln Oklahoma City Seattle
Santa Ana San Luis Obispo Harding Dahm & Pacific Realty Levy Beffort 206.388.3000
California Central Coast Company 402.467.1234 405.840.1500
714.667.8252 Commercial 317.844.2700 Wisconsin
Omaha Oregon Appleton
805.541.5000 Mishawaka/South Bend
Alabama Pacific Realty
Santa Barbara Cressy & Everett Portland Pfefferle
Mobile 402.345.5866
Peebles & Cameron, LLC 805.564.3366 574.271.4060 503.241.1155 920.968.4700
251.438.4312 Nevada Green Bay
Temecula Iowa Pennsylvania
WestMar Las Vegas Pfefferle
Arizona Des Moines Las Vegas Commercial King of Prussia
951.491.6300 920.884.5000
Phoenix Mid-America Commercial Brokerage, LLC 610.337.1010
BRE Commercial, LLC Visalia 515.222.0605 Madison
Pearson Commercial 702.733.7500 Philadelphia
602.954.9000 Oakbrook Corporation
559.732.7300 Kansas Reno 215.561.8300
Tucson Lawrence NCG 608.238.2600
520.321.3330 Walnut Creek Pittsburgh
925.939.3500 The Winbury Group 775.332.2800 412.281.0100 Milwaukee
Arkansas 785.865.5100 New Hampshire Apex Commercial
Bentonville Colorado South Carolina 262.784.7500
Wichita Bedford
Solomon Partners Colorado Springs Martens Commercial Charleston
479.271.6118 Quantum Commercial Coldstream Real Estate Waupaca
Group, LLC Barkley Fraser
Group Advisors, Inc. Pfefferle
North Little Rock 316.262.0000 603.623.0100 843.725.7200
Solomon Partners 719.590.1717 715.258.8000
Denver Maryland Portsmouth Columbia
501.975.0547 Wausau
303.572.7700 Baltimore Coldstream Real Estate Wilson Kibler
California Pfefferle
410.625.4200 Advisors, Inc. 803.779.8600
Anaheim Connecticut 715.355.6060
Bethesda 603.433.7100 Greenville
714.939.6000 Stamford Wyoming
203.406.9899 301.530.8200 New Jersey The Furman Co.
Bakersfield Cheyenne
ASU & Associates Massachusetts Edison 864.242.5151
Delaware Wyoming Commercial
661.862.5454 Wilmington Boston 732.225.0433 Myrtle Beach
617.772.7200 Wilson Kibler 307.432.4070
Carlsbad 302.888.4500 Fairfield
BRE Commercial Michigan 973.486.2500 843.946.7100 Canada
760.431.4200 District of Columbia
Detroit Marlton Tennessee Avison Young
El Cajon Washington, D.C.
202.312.5400 248.350.9500 856.334.2100 Chattanooga Calgary
BRE Commercial 403.262.3082
619.462.3100 Florida Grand Haven New Mexico Hudson
Paramount Commerce Albuquerque 423.698.8660 Edmonton
Fresno Boca Raton
616.296.0604 New Mexico 780.428.7850
Pearson Commercial 561.995.5150 Memphis
559.432.6200 Fort Myers Grand Rapids 505.883.7676 Memphis, LLC Halifax, Nova Scotia
LA Downtown 1st Commercial Paramount Commerce Las Cruces 901.761.1717 902.442.4050
213.596.2222 239.210.7600 616.774.3500 New Mexico Nashville Mississauga
LA East (San Gabriel) Jacksonville Holland 505.523.6000
Centennial, Inc. 905.712.2100
562.364.2000 Phoenix Realty Group Focus Properties Santa Fe
616.394.4500 615.320.7500 Montreal
LA North 904.399.5222 New Mexico
(Sherman Oaks) Kalamazoo 505.989.3900 Texas 514.940.5330
Melbourne
818.332.2000 Commercial Florida Paramount Commerce Austin Ottawa
269.978.0245 New York
LA South Bay 321.984.1957 512.349.1000 613.567.2680
New York (Midtown)
(Torrance) Miami Minnesota Corpus Christi Quebec City
310.491.2000 212.759.9700
305.982.4100 Minneapolis Coastal Bend 418.694.3330
LA West Wappinger Falls
Orlando Northco Real Estate 361.994.0649 Regina
310.477.3800 Services Facility Resource Group
Commercial Florida 306.359.9799
Newport Beach 407.423.1200 952.820.1600 845.296.3200 Dallas
949.608.2000 North Carolina 972.450.3300 Toronto
Tampa Mississippi
Ontario Commercial Florida Chapel Hill El Paso 416.955.0000
909.605.1100 Gulfport Best/White LLC
813.639.1111 Sawyer Commercial Thomas Linderman Vancouver
Pleasanton 228.863.0232 Graham 915.772.9082 604.687.7331
Georgia
925.218.3388 919.968.4017 Houston Winnipeg
Atlanta Missouri
Redwood City 770.552.2400 Raleigh 713.626.8888 204.947.2242
Chesterfield Thomas Linderman
650.596.2460 Hawaii Mission/McAllen
Gundaker Commercial Graham Mexico
Riverside Honolulu 636.728.5100 Select Regional
951.530.1700 919.785.3434 Ciudad Juarez
CBI, Inc. Kansas City Solutions
Roseville North Dakota Best/White de Mexico
808.942.7100 The Winbury Group 956.630.4300
916.770.8900 011.52.656.629.1111
Idaho 816.531.5303 Fargo San Antonio
Sacramento Marc C. Johnson & Monterrey
Boise St. Louis (Clayton) 210.828.5050
916.418.6000 Campbell, LLC Select Regional
Idaho Commercial Gundaker Commercial Virginia
San Diego Downtown 314.719.2000 701.281.5200 Solutions
Group
BRE Commercial 208.287.9500 Charlottesville 877.445.4070
619.515.0017 Montana Ohio
Real Estate III Reynosa
San Diego (Otay Mesa) Illinois Bozeman Cincinnati
West Shell Commercial Commercial Select Regional
BRE Commercial Chicago Montana 434.817.1240
312.698.6700 Commercial, LLP 513.721.4200 Solutions
619.661.0657
406.587.8700 Cleveland Richmond 899.929.3830
San Diego UTC Columbia
BRE Commercial Gundaker Commercial 216.861.3040 Harrison & Bates San Luis Potosi
Kalispell
858.546.5400 618.281.8800 Montana Columbus 804.788.1000 Select Regional
San Francisco Rosemont (O’Hare) Commercial, LLP Adena Realty Advisors Tysons Corner Solutions
415.433.1050 847.390.8040t 406.755.8485 614.436.9800 703.448.2000 444.811.1771
12 l San Francisco Bay Area © 2008 Grubb & Ellis
CONTRIBUTORS AND SOURCES

Grubb & Ellis research teams across the U.S. work together to ensure our clients
have the most up-to-date market knowledge.

Contributors
San Francisco
Erin Proto, Assistant Vice President Client Services Manager – Bay Area
Jesse Gundersheim, Senior Research Analyst
Asa Flynn, Research Analyst

San Jose
Dina Simoni, Research Services Manager

Walnut Creek
Erin Proto, Assistant Vice President Client Services Manager – Bay Area
Katie Burton, Senior Database Coordinator

Redwood City
Asa Flynn, Research Analyst

Sources
IREN, Real Capital Analytics, State of California, Claritas, CoStar Group, Crittenden, The
Conference Board, Urban Land Institute, PricewaterhouseCoopers, U.S. Census Bureau,
National Venture Capital Association, International Council of Shopping Centers, U.S.
Department of Commerce, Mercury News, San Francisco Business Times, San Jose Business Journal

© 2008 Grubb & Ellis San Francisco Bay Area l 13


Grubb & Ellis offers its clients an integrated platform
of real estate services and investment programs.
We strive to meet the evolving needs and investment
objectives of corporate owners and occupants as
well as institutional and private investors.

Transaction Services
• Agency leasing
• Tenant representation
• Consulting services
• Valuation consulting
• Retail services
• Institutional investment services
• Private capital investment services
• Site selection

Management Services
• Property management
• Facility management
• Asset management
• Business and fulfillment services
• Consulting services
• Project/construction management
• Engineering services

Corporate Services
• Consulting services
• Real property and lease administration
• Retail services
• Strategic planning
• Tenant representation
• Valuation services
• Site selection
• Project management
• Portfolio rationalization
• Disposition services

Investment Programs
• 1031 tenant-in-common exchanges
• Public non-traded real estate
investment trusts (REITs)
• Limited liability companies
• Wealth management
• Institutional investments
• Mutual funds
• Securities separate accounts and funds

The direct or indirect purchase of real property involves significant


risks. Investors should consult their own tax advisors and legal
counsel. Always remember that each property is unique and past
performance is no guarantee of future results. WWW.GRUBB-ELLIS.COM

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen