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sources and has not been independently verified by Grubb & Ellis. Grubb & Ellis makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof. Note:
Year-end 2008 numbers include estimates for the fourth quarter that were derived in November. Final published numbers may vary slightly. Totals may not add precisely
due to rounding.
Although it is difficult to predict just how long and severe the current downturn will be, we
believe that we have not seen the end of weakening consumer and business confidence,
slowing manufacturing activity, and rising unemployment that is currently plaguing our
economy. These are all factors that impact every aspect of the commercial real estate industry.
Within the commercial real estate market, the investment sector was the first to feel the effects
of the credit crisis, and as a result property sales were down by two-thirds during the first three
quarters of 2008 as compared with the same period in 2007. As I write this, access to capital
remains extremely limited, and the leasing market is starting to more severely feel the effects
of the economic uncertainty. Needless to say, this is probably the most challenging market we
have experienced since the early 1990s. I can say that it is certainly the most challenging time
I’ve seen in my 30 years in the real estate industry.
At this point we believe it most likely will be late 2010 before we begin to see a meaningful
recovery throughout the commercial real estate industry. However, there are some bright
spots. Low oil prices and interest rates will allow some commercial real estate sectors to
recover quicker than others. And if you are a tenant with a requirement or an investor with
cash, 2009 will offer considerable opportunity.
At Grubb & Ellis Company, we believe that within a challenging market there are opportunities.
Our goal, as always, is to help our clients take advantage of them. We look forward to
discussing the specifics of our 2009 Forecast with you, and to helping you meet your real estate
goals now and into the future.
Sincerely,
Gary H. Hunt
Interim Chief Executive Officer
Grubb & Ellis Company
Table of Contents
Grubb & Ellis goes above and beyond in-depth local market research and analysis. As our clients’ Office 2
needs have evolved from bricks and mortar requirements to encompass complex global real estate Industrial 4
Retail 6
issues, our industry subject matter experts contribute focused, specialized expertise to the process.
Investment 7
This added layer of analysis gives clients a more complete picture of the environment in which they Company Profile 9
operate and helps us leverage our market data to help owners, users and investors construct smart, Grubb & Ellis Research 11
innovative solutions to today’s real estate needs. Office Directory 12
Contributors and Sources 13
Weakening tenant demand will result in a softer office market in 2009. Sublease space and vacancy rates
are predicted to rise while absorption and rental rates will decline. Market fundamentals will deteriorate,
albeit less dramatically than they did during the dot-com bust.
Vacancy Rates Market Overview Although the unique industry base inherent
Year-End Challenging economic conditions will trans- to the Bay Area will prevent market funda-
30%
late into a difficult year for owners of mentals from deteriorating to the degree
20% commercial real estate in the Bay Area. other major markets will, the ailing economy
Oakland and San Mateo were the first will result in a slowdown in real estate trans-
10%
markets to show signs of deterioration, actions. Tenants will take longer to evaluate
0%
posting negative net absorption for 2008. lease opportunities in the face of uncertain
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
■ Oakland/ ■ San Francisco ■ San Jose/ ■ San Francisco/ The stronger markets of San Jose and San revenue projections. Financing challenges
Eastbay Silicon Mid-Peninsula
Valley
Francisco finished 2008 with positive will hinder demand as well. As demand
Source: Grubb & Ellis
absorption, but are forecasted to record slows and sublease space increases, down-
negative net absorption in 2009. The slow- ward pressure on rents will escalate. Average
Historical Absorption
Year-End (in Thousand SF) down in consumer spending and Class A asking rents declined in all Bay Area
5,000 deteriorating job market, coupled with the office markets during 2008 and steeper
evaporation of business loans is sure to reductions are anticipated. Rents are
0
negatively impact businesses throughout projected to decline by 12 percent for the
-5,000 the Bay Area in 2009. entire Bay Area in 2009. Landlords will
aggressively seek tenants by offering
-10,000
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
In addition to the reduction in loan dollars
concessions such as free rent.
■ Oakland/ ■ San Francisco ■ San Jose/ ■ San Francisco/ available from struggling financial institu-
Eastbay Silicon Mid-Peninsula
Source: Grubb & Ellis Valley tions, an impending slowdown of venture Confidence among developers has dissi-
capital investment will also adversely affect pated and several speculative office
Asking Rental Rates tenant demand, particularly in the Silicon buildings have been scrapped. Construction
Year-End ($/SF/Yr. Full Service) Valley. During 2009, venture capital invest- activity, which was modest to begin with
ment levels will be driven significantly by the due to geographical land constraints, will
$80
cleantech sector, which according to the decline to minimal levels in 2009. Market
$40 National Venture Capital Association, “will fundamentals will weaken as bankruptcies,
continue to grow despite economic woes mergers and tenant contractions transpire.
$0 and could become the top investment Vacancy in the Bay Area office markets is
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
■ Oakland/ ■ San Francisco ■ San Jose/ ■ San Francisco/ sector for the venture capital industry by projected to rise throughout 2009. Although
Eastbay Silicon Mid-Peninsula
Source: Grubb & Ellis Valley 2012.” Already the high-tech capital of the Bay Area commercial real estate is in for a
world, the Bay Area will benefit in the long rough ride in 2009, the anticipated down-
run as the global hub of the emerging clean- turn is predicted to be less severe than the
tech and biotech industries. Revitalization of one brought on by the dot-com collapse. A
San Francisco’s Mission Bay neighborhood bottom in sales pricing and rents is antici-
has been led by the development of pated to be reached in late 2009, paving the
biotechnology friendly office buildings in way for a comeback as capital access returns
which UCSF, Phizer, FibroGen and Merck- and economic recovery ensues.
owned Sirna Therapeutics have committed
to space.
vacancy, lower tenant demand, deterioration space at lower asking rates as landlords add 2008 was the first year since 2003 to show a
in rental rates and emptying of the develop- more incentives to fill vacancies. Despite the real pullback in the San Francisco/Mid-
ment pipeline. Capital access challenges are negativity surrounding the economy, Silicon Peninsula office market. While 2007 was a
expected to hinder business operations and Valley has a silver lining when compared to time for landlords to test tenants’ tolerance
office expansions substantially. Available the rest of the nation. for escalating rents, 2008 and 2009 will bring
sublease space, which increased in 2008, will more opportunities and variety to the
flood the market in 2009 forcing landlords to Oakland/East Bay market. With a limited number of financial
lower rental rates on competitive space. The mortgage meltdown coupled with the tenants, and high-tech employment contin-
Although a downturn is expected, market credit crisis weighed down the East Bay uing to serve as the anchor for a large
fundamentals in San Francisco are predicted office market throughout 2008. Many portion of demand, the Peninsula office
to hold up better than in other major markets companies remained very cautious market will likely rebound ahead of the rest
due to the city’s unique tenant base and regarding their real estate commitments of the Bay Area.
construction limitations. and adopted a wait-and-see attitude which
With only one major construction project
translated into four consecutive quarters of
scheduled to complete in 2008, and a nearly
San Jose/Silicon Valley increased vacancy and a softening of overall
empty pipeline, the San Francisco/Mid-
Silicon Valley’s office market responded to rents. As the national economic challenges
Peninsula is positioned well to weather the
the economic challenges of 2008 with an spill over into 2009, look for sublease space
current economic downturn. Expect rents to
increase in vacancy of approximately 50 to rise, asking rental rate erosion and
soften and vacancy to increase, however we
basis points per quarter, a shift from the vacancy to continue its climb upward. As
should not see as deep a decline as in the
downward trend that began the first quarter tenants jump into the driver’s seat, watch for
previous down cycle.
of 2006. Going forward we anticipate
Despite the challenges currently facing the economy, the Bay Area industrial market is
poised to remain healthy throughout 2009. The market will experience demand but deal
velocity will be slower than it has been over that past two years.
Vacancy Rates Market Overview a market driver in both the East Bay and
All Product Types, Year-End Despite the negative national economic Silicon Valley markets. This is in comparison
landscape, two major drivers helped main- to the Peninsula where sublease space hit
20%
tain positive industrial momentum the market due to rising travel time and the
throughout 2008: clean technology activity increased cost of fuel. Grubb & Ellis expect
10%
and the decreasing dollar, which increased warehouse vacancy on the Peninsula to
0%
exports. This was in contrast to the office and increase over the next couple of years while
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
■ Oakland/ ■ San Jose/ retail sectors, which experienced increased the East Bay and Silicon Valley markets
Eastbay Silicon Valley
vacancy in the latter half of the year due to remain steady.
Source: Grubb & Ellis
frozen credit markets, negative GDP and
Moving forward into 2009 Grubb & Ellis
reductions in workforce.
Historical Absorption anticipates asking rents will remain steady in
All Product Types, Year-End (in Thousand SF)
Clean technology company activity in Silicon the East Bay and slightly decrease in Silicon
10,000 Valley and the East Bay not only maintained Valley and Peninsula as landlords hold off on
positive market momentum but also helped raising rates until the market regains its
-10,000 to reduce any large general industrial and balance. Tenants will remain cautious about
R&D/flex blocks of space that had been sitting making moves until the government’s
-30,000 vacant or given back to the market. efforts begin freeing up credit, reassuring
00 02 04 06 08P 09F
■ Oakland/Eastbay ■ San Jose/Silicon Valley Approximately two-thirds of the leases them that it is time to come off the sidelines
Source: Grubb & Ellis completed in Silicon Valley in the third and move forward with expansion plans.
quarter, over 750,000 square feet of gross While there is still considerable uncertainty
Warehouse Asking Rental Rates absorption, were done by clean technology in the market, space options in the Bay Area
Year-End ($/SF/Yr. Triple Net) tenants. Furthermore, two of the biggest markets are extremely tight and landlords
$12
deals inked in 2008 in the East Bay market are advised to work with tenants that have
$8 were done by clean technology tenants. upcoming lease expirations during these
turbulent times.
$4 A weakening dollar that buoyed exports
overseas coupled with a desirable Bay Area Limited industrial base inventory along with
$0
00 02 04 06 08P 09F location resulted in positive momentum in almost no new construction coming online
■ Oakland/ ■ San Jose/
Eastbay Silicon Valley warehouse/distribution space. A constrained means there is little to compete with existing
Source: Grubb & Ellis
product type, warehouse proved to be inventory. No new construction is expected in
the Silicon Valley or the East Bay in 2009 and
Key Leasing Transactions
2008 the Peninsula expects to see 78,000 square
Lessee Lessor Property Submarket Size (SF) feet. Going forward we anticipate a new
Fed Ex LBA Realty 8333 Central Avenue Newark 320,875
economic playing field, new interest in
Coaster Prologis 6753 Mowry Avenue Newark 268,538
Super Micro Pinole Point 48350 Fremont Blvd Fremont 246,450 sustaining U.S. jobs versus offshoring work, as
BioRad Laboratories Sares Regis Group 2100-2900 Atlas Rd Richmond 116,500
well as continued technology innovation and
Optisolar PNK, LLC 31164-31172 Huntwood Ave Hayward 60,000
environmental initiatives will help the Bay
Area weather through the storm.
Brace for a rough retail year in 2009 throughout the Bay Area - consumer confidence
that is in the dumps as well as diminished consumer demand and the credit crisis coupled with a challenged
housing market will put pressure on tenants as well as landlords.
Median Household Income The wave of growth that Bay Area retail has With stringent lending requirements and a
2008 (in Thousands) been enjoying over the past few years came weakened dollar, retail is in store for a rough
U.S. Average
crashing down in 2008. The mortgage melt- road ahead. As a result of these turbulent
down coupled with the financial crisis that times some retailers have already filed for
San Francisco/
Oakland/ the nation is wrestling with has stifled bankruptcy protection. Examples include
East Bay
San Jose/
consumer demand and confidence. Circuit City, Mervyn’s and Sharper Image.
Silicon Valley
Consumers have clamped down on While other companies, such as the Gap
$0 $40 $80
spending in reaction to tightening credit, have announced plans to significantly
Source: Claritas
mounting layoffs and stock market losses. reduce the number of stores nationally.
Backing this up is the International Council This will put additional pressure on
of Shopping Centers Chain Stores report landlords who are already feeling the
Typical Rent
In-line Shop Space, 2008 ($/SF/Yr. Triple Net) noting the weakest retail comparable-store pain in the market.
sales performance in more than 35 years.
U.S. Average The Bay Area retail market will remain
Additionally the Conference Board
San Francisco challenged throughout 2009. Watch for
Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to
Oakland retail consolidation to continue. Rents will
its lowest level in the 40-year history of the
San Jose/ continue to decline as vacancies climb
Silicon Valley survey. Another market indicator to watch is
upward. Landlords will give more
$0 $40 $80 Mortgage Equity Withdrawals (MEW), which
concessions to tenants either in the form of
measures the availability of home equity
Source: Grubb & Ellis higher tenant improvement allowances or
through borrowing and when plotted
free rent. As people still need essentials,
against retail expenditures, it is evident these
Retail Square Feet Per Capita neighborhood centers with grocery
activities are in lockstep with one another.
2008 and drug stores should fare best during this
Harder to attain credit and reduced net
U.S. Average time. Neighborhood shopping centers
equity values have translated into less
San Francisco located near high-income areas are also
availability of MEW credit and a reduction in
expected to weather the storm in 2009.
Oakland retail sales. The more discretionary in nature
All signs point to another rough year for
San Jose/ the items seem to be, the less people will
Silicon Valley retail, but these vacancies will provide better
40 44 48 spend on them in times of stress and
real estate opportunities and less
especially in periods where one has
Source: Grubb & Ellis, CoStar, Claritas competition for some retailers.
difficulties extracting their home equity.
The difficult mortgage environment and the
Tenants Expanding or Downsizing substantial reduction in home values
2009
Expanding or New to Market Downsizing combined to greatly curtail borrowing and
Cellular & Accessory Stores Auto Dealerships as a result, discretionary spending.
Casual Dining Restaurants Department Stores
Health & Personal Care High End Restaurant
Wholesale Clubs Home Furnishings
Building Materials, Garden & Supply Clothing & Accessory Stores
The credit crunch effectively ended an incredible five-year run in pricing and activity.
With capital availability likely to remain limited in 2009, look for heavily leveraged investors
to unload properties to cash rich buyers at reduced prices.
Average Capitalization Rates Market Overview property sectors. Fallout from home foreclo-
Closed Sales (2008) Upheaval in the financial markets has sures in the Bay Area should remain
8% greatly disrupted commercial real estate relatively restrained compared to some
6% investment throughout the Bay Area, overbuilt Southern California markets.
4% creating a bleak outlook for 2009. The credit
Perspective buyers can be assured that
2% crisis put an end to the record pace of deal
investing in Bay Area real estate represents a
0%
velocity achieved in 2007. Investment
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel tremendous long-term opportunity. San
transactions totaling approximately $5
Francisco is considered the West Coast’s
billion closed in 2008, an 82 percent decline
Source: Real Capital Analytics
premier office market and one of the most
in dollar volume from 2007. Marketed
dynamic real estate investment markets in
investment opportunities are scarce
Property Sales Volume the world. Technology companies continue
(in Billions) heading into 2009 as uncertainty with
$40,000 to drive demand in San Jose where employ-
regards to pricing runs wild. Lack of credit
ment and income growth are robust.
$30,000 availability in the foreseeable future will
Oakland/East Bay remains a vital Bay Area hub
$20,000 result in a significant slowing of capital into
housing the fourth largest port in the nation.
real estate, keeping the flow of new acqui-
$10,000 Beyond local economic strength, investment
sitions minimal throughout 2009.
$0 properties are situated to benefit from the
02 04 06 08P 09F Leveraged buyers are expected to re-
■ Office ■ Industrial ■ Retail ■ Apartment ■ Hotel Bay Area’s standing as a coastal global
emerge in 2010 when capital access
Source: Real Capital Analytics pathway. Large familiar markets like San
improves. Even cash-rich public pensions
Francisco are favored in the typical flight-to-
will have limited capacity for new invest-
Sales by Property Type ments in 2009 as plunging stock and bond
quality that occurs during a downturn.
2008
values have significantly reduced their An upheaval among highly leveraged
asset bases. Across the board, companies investors will create opportunities moving
Apartment 21.3% ■
Hotel 0.4% ■ have geared up for recession by reserving forward. Cash investors will be afforded open-
Industrial 8.9% ■
Office 57.7% ■
cash. This new focus on solvency and cash ings to purchase distressed properties at
Retail 11.7% ■ management will hinder acquisition market lows. Ultimately prices are expected
activity for many investment companies in to decline 20 to 30 percent from the highs
the near term. achieved in 2007. Investors willing and able to
Source: Real Capital Analytics
take a risk by acquiring property at reduced
While financial crisis grips the nation and
prices in 2009 will likely position themselves
negatively affects real estate investment
to benefit greatly when recovery ensues.
nationwide, the strength of the local
economy should help Bay Area properties
withstand a difficult period. The region’s
uniquely diversified economy is predicted to
outperform the national average, helping all
San Francisco San Jose/Silicon Valley investment levels enjoyed just last year.
The Urban Land Institute ranks San Francisco Overall commercial property sales in 2008 Looking toward 2009, values will continue to
as the premier city for development and the continued to fall with transaction volume adjust downward as a result of the credit
second-best city for commercial investment through August off 75 percent compared to debacle; cap rates will continue to climb by
in its Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2009 the same period in 2007. Towards the end of at least 25 to 50 basis points creating the
report, noting, “The City by the Bay never 2008, buyers and sellers hadn’t yet settled on opportunity for better returns and the ability
strays far from the top of the survey, a new price level and the gap between to acquire properties at below current
featuring a Pacific gateway with barriers to offers and actual pricing remained wide. Into replacement costs. Both regional and institu-
entry and quality of life, comparing favorably 2009, the investment market should begin tional investors that have been sitting on the
to any other 24-hour market.” While property to see slight improvement as the govern- sidelines in the latter half of 2008 and begin-
values did fall in 2008, the ultimate decline is ment helps to free up capital and property ning of 2009 will take the lead in those
not expected to be as dramatic as it was values should decrease allowing opportu- opportunities. Back are the days of lower
during the 2000-2001 tech bust. Values are nity for buyers with cash on hand to pick up loan-to-value ratios, higher debt coverage
predicted to find a bottom approximately 20 quality space. Owners should continue to ratios and stronger tenant evaluation.
to 30 percent below highs reached in 2007. hold onto investments in 2009.
Land constraints create a barrier to new San Francisco/Mid-Peninsula
construction; helping maintain the value of Oakland/East Bay The San Francisco/Mid-Peninsula investment
existing investment quality properties. What a difference a year makes with 2008 market has been hit significantly by a much
investment transaction volumes down tighter credit market and an economic
significantly compared to the robust decline. Only a handful of properties traded
hands in 2008, and with rents on the decline
Key Investment Transactions buyers and sellers alike will likely adopt a
2008
Property Property Price wait-and-see stance. Watch for the gap
Buyer Type Name City Size (SF) (millions) between asking and offering prices to close
CIM Group Office CIM Group Portfolio Oakland 1,739,125 $412.5
LaSalle Bank JV Retail Bay Street Emeryville Emeryville 383,055 $234.0 in 2009 and for cap rates to shift upward.
Harvest Properties JV INVESCO Office Parkside Towers Foster City 398,000 $179.8
Legacy Partners Office Ygnacio Center Walnut Creek 499,231 $174.3 Considering the ongoing turbulence among
CBRE Investors Office 500 Terry Francois San Francisco 291,000 $149.0
U.S. capital markets, it is anticipated that
Thor Equities Office Phelan Bldg San Francisco 267,446 $130.0
PNC Realty Investors Office 199 Freemont St San Francisco 396,200 $127.4 property values and velocity will fall in the
VNO Patson Van Ness Holdings Office CSAA Portfolio San Francisco 597,574 $118.5
near-term future. As capital access returns
United Dominion Realty Trust Apartment Edgewater Luxury Apts San Francisco 157,135 $115.0
Shorenstein Properties and the economy begins a slow recovery
JV SKS Development Industrial Oyster Point Bus Park South San Francisco 404,215 $84.0
Angelo Gordon cycle, the Mid-Peninsula investment market
JV Centrum Properties Industrial SFO Logistics Center South San Francisco 568,823 $80.0 will be well positioned for a comeback.
LBA Realty Office 4900 Johnson Dr Pleasanton 288,000 $66.5
Eden Township
Healthcare District Office Dublin Gateway Medical Center Dublin 115,000 $60.0
Prado Group JV Felson Cos Apartment Nob Hill Tower San Francisco 108,000 $37.2
Nearon Enterprises General Industrial Sycamore Drive Milpitas 197,604 $22.0
Sares-Regis Group Warehouse 48350 Fremont Blvd Fremont 246,500 $21.0
Intuitive Surgical R&D/Flex 950 Kifer Rd Sunnyvale 163,286 $16.5
Nearon Enterprises Warehouse 940 Remillard Ct San Jose 166,600 $16.0
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Contributors
San Francisco
Erin Proto, Assistant Vice President Client Services Manager – Bay Area
Jesse Gundersheim, Senior Research Analyst
Asa Flynn, Research Analyst
San Jose
Dina Simoni, Research Services Manager
Walnut Creek
Erin Proto, Assistant Vice President Client Services Manager – Bay Area
Katie Burton, Senior Database Coordinator
Redwood City
Asa Flynn, Research Analyst
Sources
IREN, Real Capital Analytics, State of California, Claritas, CoStar Group, Crittenden, The
Conference Board, Urban Land Institute, PricewaterhouseCoopers, U.S. Census Bureau,
National Venture Capital Association, International Council of Shopping Centers, U.S.
Department of Commerce, Mercury News, San Francisco Business Times, San Jose Business Journal
Transaction Services
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• Asset management
• Business and fulfillment services
• Consulting services
• Project/construction management
• Engineering services
Corporate Services
• Consulting services
• Real property and lease administration
• Retail services
• Strategic planning
• Tenant representation
• Valuation services
• Site selection
• Project management
• Portfolio rationalization
• Disposition services
Investment Programs
• 1031 tenant-in-common exchanges
• Public non-traded real estate
investment trusts (REITs)
• Limited liability companies
• Wealth management
• Institutional investments
• Mutual funds
• Securities separate accounts and funds