Informing Good Adaptation Decisions

Robert Lempert Director, RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for LongerRange Global Policy and the Future Human Condition RAND Corporation Mediterranean Cities Conference June 25, 2012

Many Organizations Face Climate-Related Decisions

Climate-related decisions:
Are choices by individuals or organizations, the results of which can be expected to Affect climate change or to be affected by climate change and its interactions with ecological, economics, and social systems

Decisions can be climate-related whether or not decision makers recognize them as such

Useful to Consider Climate Change Adaptation as Risk Management

Three factors contribute to risk Reducing risk requires addressing all three
Hazard:
The potential occurrence of a physical event that may cause injury, damage, or loss
RISK
MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND DISASTERS TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS

Vulnerability:
The predisposition of a person or group to be adversely affected

Exposure:
The presence of people and the things they care about in places that could be adversely affected

SPECIAL REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Adaptation to Climate Change Poses Both Analytic and Organizational Challenges

Planning with statistics of future climate based on projections, rather than just replicating recent history, requires
Usefully summarizing incomplete information from new, fast-moving, and potentially irreducibly uncertain science Justifying analytic choices to diverse constituencies, many of whom may object to implications of some particular choices

Additionally hard because:

Many factors are changing simultaneously Engineering solutions alone cannot effectively reduce risk Many options available, but can interact in complicated ways Seemingly helpful short-term actions may increase long-term risk The only certainty is surprise
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Existing Flows and Use of Information Not Always Well-Aligned with Adaptation Challenges
What type of decision process do organizations follow under different conditions?
Uncertainty over CONSEQUENCES

Judgment Quantitative policy analysis Low

Inspiration

Low

Bargaining High

Climate change adaptation often poses this type of challenge

Many bureaucracies designed to provide information for these challenges

High

Uncertainty over OBJECTIVES

Many evocative names for decision challenges with deep uncertainty surrounding objectives and consequences: Messes vs. problems Wicked vs. tame problems Swamp vs. high ground Practical vs. technical Soft vs. hard systems

Decision Support Concept Helps Organize Insights Relevant to Addressing Such Challenges
Decision support represents a set of processes intended to create the conditions and appropriate use of decision-relevant information
Evidence from many fields suggests that three elements contribute to effective decision support 1.Products:

Includes tangible deliverables such as data, maps, projections, images, tools, models, documents, brochures, web pages, etc. Activities, consultations, and other forms of interactions that enable decision makers to make better use of decision-relevant information Individuals, organizations, communications networks, and supporting institutional structures that provide and use decision support services and produces
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2.Services:

3.Systems:

What Constitutes a Good Decision Process?

Problem Definition
Fosters thoughtful consideration and creation of alternative courses of action

Clear Objectives
Parties to decision achieve clarity about their objectives

Alternatives Linked to Objectives

Identify alternatives that are linked to the problem and objectives

Assessment of Consequences
Anticipate consequences of each alternative on objectives

Confronting Tradeoffs
Parties to decision recognize and consider conflicting objectives and their implications for choices of alternative actions
NRC (2009) p. 22
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Iterative Risk Management Framework Often Best Means to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties
Iterative risk management recognizes that the process of anticipating and responding to climate change represents an ongoing process of assessment, action, reassessment, and response
Identify problem and objectives Establish decision making criteria

Implement Decision

Monitor & Reassess

Identify options

Assess risks

Make Decision

Appraise options

Source: NRC (2010) Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change, Americas Climate Choices.

Applying These Approaches With Many Resource Management Agencies

Water Resources Planning 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 California Water Plan MWD 2010 Integrated Resource Plan CO River Management IEUA Climate Adaptation Studies (NSF) 2005 California Water Plan (NSF)

Coastal Protection and Restoration

US ACE Risk Informed Decision Framework Gulf Coast Fisheries Study Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master New Orleans Plan Risk Update Mitigation Study (NOAA)

2009 California Water Plan

Denver Water Pilot Project Port of L.A. & Sierra sea level rise Nevada (NSF) Climate Adaptation Study (PIER)

CO Springs & NYC

Ho Chi Minh City Flood Risk

Engagement with Port of Los Angeles Focused on Potential Responses to Extreme Sea Level Rise
Question: How should the Port address the potential for presumably low probability but large impact levels of extreme sea level rise in its investment plans? Process: Conducted series of workshops with Port planners to frame problem and discuss implications of intermediate and final results Between workshops interacted with Port analysts to review data and analyses
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Effort Focused on Only One of Many Sea Level Rise Decisions Facing PoLA
Approach Protect Accommodate Retreat

Hard

Dikes, seawalls, breakwaters, saltwater intrusion barriers

Building on pilings, adapting drainage, emergency flood shelters

Relocate threatened buildings

Soft

Sand nourishment, dune building, wetland restoration or creations

New building codes, growing flood or salttolerant crops, early warning and evacuation systems, risk-based hazard insurance

Land-use restrictions, setback zones

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Analysis Followed Decision-First as Opposed to Science-First Ordering

First ask: Under what future conditions would PoLA find it advantageous to have hardened its terminals against extreme sea level rise at the next upgrade?

Next ask: Does current science and other available information suggest that these conditions are sufficiently likely to justify a decision to harden at the next upgrade?

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Analysis Followed Decision-First as Opposed to Science-First Ordering

First ask: Under what future conditions would PoLA find it advantageous to have hardened its terminals against extreme sea level rise at the next upgrade? Such hardening passes a cost-benefit test when sea level rise rate exceeds states planning guidelines, storminess increases, and terminal lifetime more than doubles Next ask: Does current science and other available information suggest that these conditions are sufficiently likely to justify a decision to harden at the next upgrade? Plausible likelihoods only sufficient for further study for one of four PoLA facilities considered This decision-first approach facilitates: Expanding the range of options considered Using imprecise scientific and economic information in planning
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RAND Team Helped State of Louisiana Develop Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast
Louisiana faces increased flooding risk and serious coastal land loss due to sea level rise, land subsidence, lack of river-borne sediments, and any changes in storm intensity
RAND helped the state develop a comprehensive coastal master plan HCMC may also find useful some of the methods employed for Louisiana Stakeholders deliberate over tradeoffs Interactive visualizations Revised instructions

Assess impacts of alternative responses

RAND Researchers Helped Develop the Master RAND-Developed Planning Tool and Risk Assessment Model Plans Science-Based Approach and Tools
Risk Assessment Compares Model Planning Tool

consequences of alternative combinations of 100s of responses

&

Estimates risk to different communities and industries

A9673-JF-04/2012

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Resulting Integrated Risk Management Plan Includes 151 Projects Over 50 Years
Other restoration
58 projects $5.4B 17 projects $10.9B

Structural risk reduction

23 projects $20.0B

42 communities $10.2B 11 projects $3.8B

Marsh creation

Non-structural risk reduction

River diversions This portfolio of projects meets objectives of diverse stakeholders over many time scales and many future scenarios

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Summary
Climate change adaptation presents a challenge of iterative risk management
Future changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are sure to surprise Effective solutions will generally require coordination and information flows across existing institutional silos

Decision support concept helps inform and organize necessary interactive processes among information users and providers Decision-first (as opposed to science-first) ordering of analyses can help facilitate:
Consideration of an expanded set of response options Effective use of imprecise scientific and economic information during times of rapid change
http://www.rand.org/international_programs/pardee.html
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What Principles Lead to Good Decision Support?

1. Build from users' needs
Identify needs collaboratively in two-way communication between information providers and users

2. Emphasize decision processes over information products

Design information systems and products to support decision support processes

3. Employ a multidisciplinary and multi-organization approach 4. Embed decision support in enduring institutions and networks that link users and providers 5. Design decision support for learning
NRC (2009) p. 40-41
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