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Author: Prof. HE Chuanqi China Center for Modernization Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences E-mail: ccmr@mail.las.ac.cn http://www.modernization.com.cn
Fig. 1 Fig. 2 We had studies the process of the world modernization from 1950 to 2000, and the results was published in the series of the China Modernization Report from 2001 to 2003. For example in 2000, there are about 24 nations who is on the way of the second phase modernization, about 100 nations on the way of the first phase modernization, about 2 nations and so many regions stood in the agriculture society, and some tribes kept the situation of the primitive society. 2The evaluate models of the modernization Black said No two societies are at the same level of development at a given point in time (Black 1966). If this was true, we could say that no two regions are at the same level of development at a given point in time. So the process of the modernization is a complex issue both in national and regional level. For any nation or region, the modernization is one kind of great change and the process to reach, keep or catch up the advanced level of the world since the industrial revolution. To understand and analysis the process of the modernization, we do need and have to develop the evaluate models.
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Model one: the assessment model of the first phase modernization. The first modernization index reflects the degree of industrialization and urbanization in the countries or regions, and includes 10 indicators in the field of society and economy. Model two: the assessment model of the second phase modernization. The second modernization index reflects the progress of the countries or regions in the field of the production, transmission and use of new knowledge, and includes 16 indicators in the aspects of knowledge innovation, knowledge transmission, living quality and economical quality. Model three: the assessment model of the comprehensive modernization. The comprehensive modernization index reflects the relative gap between one country or region and the advanced level of the world, and includes the 12 indicators in the field of society, economy and knowledge. Model four: the four groups of Modernization Process. According to the relative level of modernization (the second modernization index or the comprehensive modernization index), we can divided the nations or regions into four groups: high modernized, upper middle modernized, lower middle modernized and low modernized group (table 2). The level of both of high and upper middle modernized group is over the world average, and the level of others is under the world average.
Note: SMI: Second Modernization Index, CMI: Comprehensive Modernization Index 3The principles of the modernization We have investigated the modernization process of 131 countries and 205 regions (table 3) and find some facts, among them, the four principles were very clear. Table 3 The 205 Regions
Countries United States European Union Mexico India China No. of the Regions 50 73 32 16 34
Principle one: the process of modernization is not synchronization. No two countries or regions will initiate and complete the two phase of the modernization, and different countries and regions will finish the two phase of the modernization at different time.
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Principle two: the distribution of modernization is asymmetry. The vertical and horizontal distribution of the world modernization is uneven at national, regional and indicator level. The different Countries or regions are at the different level of the modernization, and different indicators of a country or region are at the different level of the modernization at a given point in time.
Principle three: the structure of distribution is relative stable. If we divide the nations and regions into four groups based on their relative level of the modernization, the vertical structure is relative stable. Generally, less than 20% of countries or regions can reach and keep the advanced level in the world. Principle four: the position and disparity is changeable. In the process of world modernization, the relative position of countries or regions and the disparity between the countries or regions and the world advanced level will change in an about regular probability (fig. 3). Fig. 3
4The hot issues in the future
In the history of more than 200 years since industrial revolution, not all states or regions had reached the frontier of the world, not all advanced countries or regions had kept their leadership in the world, and not all developing nations and areas had catch up the developed countries. How to understand these facts? There are a lot of hot issues waiting for the study. For example, why and how only few countries and regions become the leaders in the process of the modernization? Who and why can reach and keep the top level of world? How to catch up the advanced level of the world? How to understand the relationship between the modernization and natural resources? How to learn the effects of the spatial position of the country or region in the earth in the process of the world modernization? We not only hope to cooperate, but also need to cooperate with other scientists in the modernization study in the coming years. Please give us a hand.
References Beck, U., A. Giddens, and S. Lash. 1994. Reflexive Modernization. Stanford, California: Stanford University Press. Black, C.E. 1966. The Dynamics of Modernization. New York, Evanstan, London: Harper & Row, Publishers. He, C.Q. 1999. Second Modernization. Beijing: High Education Press He, C.Q. et al. 2004. China Modernization Report 2004. Beijing: Peking University Press Inglehart, R. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Fig. 1.
NoteS: StartDDevelopMMatureTTransition, EEmerge K. S. Knowledge society, I. S.Industrial society, A. S. Agriculture society, P. S.Primitive society, PPrimitiveAAgricultureIIndustryKKnowledge
Fig. 2
Structure
Fig. 3 Analysis