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Contents
Introduction Health check on the PE market Evolving equity markets Evolving debt markets Changing strategies employed by the PE investors Possible future developments
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Introduction
Having qualified as an auditor, I worked on secondment with Doughty Hanson in 1987/88 Since then advised management teams and equity houses to buy businesses Run a European-wide team who advise on more private equity investments than any other organisation Coupled with our market leading Transaction Services business, we have excellent visibility across the private equity landscape
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% pa
10 years
Consistent outperformance globally against quoted indexes has attracted ever increasing flows of capital into the private equity asset class
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700
35000
600
30000
500
Number of Deals
25000
Total Value (m)
400
20000
300
15000
200
10000
100
5000
0
85 19 86 19 8 19 7 88 19 89 19 9 19 0 9 19 1 92 19 93 19 9 19 4 95 19 96 19 97 19 9 19 8 9 19 9 00 20 01 20 0 20 2 03 20 04 20 0 20 5
Total Number
10%
Ireland
9% 47%
12%
15%
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2%
7%
11% 13%
18%
8%
14%
Cons um er Financial Services Bus ines s Services Leis ure Pharm a, Medical & Biotech Cons truction
9% 13% 9% 11%
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Buyouts 2003
Buyouts 2004
Buyouts 2005
Buyouts 2006
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Emergence of new players with different investment agendas Middle Eastern Institutional eg Investor AB Russian Hedge funds Infrastructure funds Increasing penetration of US sponsors Alternative forms of equity investments are increasing Integrated finance Growth capital Re-emergence of the trade buyers
Investment committees now ask Will we pay up to 20% over the fair market value?
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Reacting to competition
Lower base case returns Increased focus on portfolio management
Increased competition
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Get comfortable paying the highest price? All about the angle, perceived or real
Early investment in due diligence Commercial DD always done early by the buyer
Tailor DD to risks not box ticking Tie up detailed DD later for bank syndication
Use commercial and operational DD to create aggressive management plan Use DD to drive 100 day plans Look for parallel deals
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Integrated Finance
The difference Private Equity
Institution has majority share of the equity % Exit agenda driven by PE House Direct board participation No direct board participation One of several funders Majority of capital upside accrues to PE House The sole external source of funding Focus on contractual return
Integrated Finance
Management has majority share of the equity % (debt driven approach) Exit agenda driven by management
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11 8 6
2005
2006 H1
Note:
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 H1
Note:
Include UK one-stop LBOs with 20-200m EV. 2006 H1 number of deals includes the 2 ECAS deals completed in July 2006 Source: CMBOR, Websites PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP 16
Include UK one-stop LBOs with 20-200m EV. 2006 H1 average deal size includes the 2 ECAS deals completed in July 2006 Source: CMBOR, Websites *connectedthinking
Ever increasing levels of secondary buyouts and recaps Debt capacity based upon Enterprise Value or expected proforma cashflows Focus on EBITDA multiple at the expense of cash flow
Substantial increase in syndicated loan volumes driven by institutional appetite Institutional investors (CDOs, Hedge Funds etc) represent >37% of the European debt market
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Corporate
Source: LPC
Recaps
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1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
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3Q06
Overall price of deals at a record high (8.8x compared to 7.0x -7.5x average 2000 to 2004)
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Stable senior pricing masks underlying decrease due to higher proportion of back ended finance Average mezzanine pricing has fallen consistently over last two years but pricing on deals <Eur50m in H106 was in line with 2003
2005 >Eur50m
LTM Q306
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Mezzanine volumes are three times 2004 level and 80% above 2005 considered sponsor friendly 59% of issuance relates to recycled transactions
Mezzanine
Second lien
Source: LPC
Trend to jumbo deals In contrast, HY issuance declined in 2005, although YOY volumes are 35% up in H1 2006
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$'bn
30
37
33 25
2003
Source: Fitch
2004
2005
H1 2006
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Current trends
No let up in debt levels often used to pump price through the staple
Beginnings of a focus by banks on lost capital situations will there be the emergence of a parallel senior debt market?
Increasing drive towards opco:propco or other asset based lending structures the embarrassment factor
As a matter of course, refinancing is the starting gun for an exit Increasing focus on controlling toxic elements in the debt structure
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Benign economic outlook for Europe for now Ongoing strong market liquidity : CDOs, hedge funds, mezzanine funds, PE fund raising Allows amortisation crunch points to be re-financed
Price flexibility : downward ratchets / auctions Institutional buyers of leveraged paper will lead to greater market instability Cycle means that some correction is inevitable : what will change sentiment?
Has correction started?
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Future developments
Consolidation
Segmentation
Returns underperformance Debt availability Succession Strategy differentiation Top quartile performance
Professionalism
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Corporate Finance
UKs Leading M&A Adviser Mergermarket, 2007* Mid-Market Adviser of the Year Acquisitions Monthly Awards 2007