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Foreword
The number of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) declined in j][]fl q]Yjk \m] lg l`] ][gfgea[ lmjegad Yf\ Y dY[c g^ fYf[af_ af l`] eYjc]l& @go]n]j$ E9 Y[lanalq af l`] l]d][geemfa[Ylagfk af\mkljq `Yk fgo j]kme]\& The consolidation trend is not about to stop: the markets in the US and Western Europe are maturing, and have never been egj] [geh]lalan]3 j]n]fm]k ^jge p]\%daf] k]jna[]k Yj] ^Yddaf_3 l][`fgdg_q ak \janaf_ ka_fa[Yfl afn]kle]fl hjg_jYek ]&_&$ >aZ]j!3 Yf\ j]_mdYlgjq hj]kkmj]k Yj] af[j]Ykaf_& It is within this context that operators are pushing to buy or sell l]d][geemfa[Ylagf Ykk]lk& This report, written by Ernst & Youngs telecommunications valuation professionals, explores a number of sizeable industry valuation issues that are at the top of the agenda for M&A and fYf[] \]hYjle]flk2 c]q nYdm] \jan]jk$ nYdmYlagf emdlahd]k$ Yf\ \a^^]j]fl e]l`g\gdg_a]k& Al dggck Yl eYfq im]klagfk l`Yl Yj] often not explained clearly by the transactions teams and their advisors, and it is intended to help operators communicate their kljYl]_a]k egj] oa\]dq$ Yf\ ]phdYaf `go nYdmYlagfk Yj] \]jan]\& O] `gh] qgm oadd f\ l`ak kmeeYjq Yf af^gjeYlan] afljg\m[lagf to some of the approaches that are used, and no doubt this will raise further questions that my team and I would be delighted to Yfko]j& EYfq l`Yfck lg Ydd eq [gdd]Y_m]k o`g ogjc]\ gf l`ak j]hgjl&
Key messages
1 2 3 4 5
M&A activity in the telecommunications sector has resumed, led by transactions in emerging markets. Valuation multiples are higher for players in high-growth markets l`Yf af eYlmj] eYjc]lk& There is a consensus on the nature and average weight of the assets recognized and valued as part g^ hmj[`Yk] hja[] Yddg[Ylagf HH9!& Subscriber relationships are generally the primary aflYf_aZd] Ykk]l af HH9$ oal` Y o]a_`l g^ Yjgmf\ ++ g^ l`] ]fl]jhjak] nYdm] =N!& ?gg\oadd j]eYafk ka_fa[Yfl$ oal` Y o]a_`l g^ .( of the =N$ l`mk j]][laf_ l`] growth potential of certain targets, as well as the importance of synergies expected from any km[[]kk^md afl]_jYlagf&
Contents
Foreword
(+ 06 10 16
Financial trends in the telecommunications market Valuation drivers in the telecommunications industry
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Financial trends in the telecommunications market
Bharti Enterprises Chairman, Mr. Sunil Bharti Mittal, during the World Economic Forum 27 January 2010
Footprint growth has featured heavily in the last decade, where transaction levels h]Yc]\ loa[]2 l`] jkl h]Yc oYk \m] lg l`] Zmad\af_ g^ k[Yd] \mjaf_ l`] l][`fgdg_q ZmZZd] g^ )111%*((($ o`a[` dYmf[`]\ l`] _dgZYd ^gglhjafl _jgol` af l`] ea\%*(((k& J]_agfYd [gfkgda\Ylagf h`Yk]k ]&_&$ MK egZad] eYjc]l Yf\ =mjgh]Yf ZjgY\ZYf\ k][lgj! d]\ lg l`] k][gf\ h]Yc g^ \]Yd Y[lanalq ^jge *((- mflad l`] kdgo\gof af *((/$ hj]\Ylaf_ l`] fYf[aYd [jakak& During this period, large European operators increased their exposure to emerging markets, with Africa outperforming developing Asia as a target market for footprint _jgol`&
Figure 2 Deal values by transaction type 20002010
400,000 +-($((( +(($((( *-($((( 200,000 )-($((( 100,000 -($((( 0 2000 2001 2002 *((+ 2004 *((- 2006 *((/ 2008 2009 Local market deals Cross-border deals 2010 Deal value (US$m)
1 Source: EY survey Why capital matters building competitive advantage in uncertain times telecommunications survey kfYhk`gl$ , >]ZjmYjq *()(&
Source: EY Survey Why Capital Matters (2000-2009) and L`gekgf K<; HdYlafme *()( \YlY!
The bloodbath has started to happen. There is enough of it now. Market caps have halved. Companies are making losses. There will only be a few players: 6, 7 but certainly not 12. [Consolidation] is inevitable.
Operators in emerging markets have built regional scale over the past few years, and [gfljaZml]\ lg l`] af[j]Ykaf_ fmeZ]jk g^ \]Ydk af l`gk] j]_agfk$ ^jge ). g^ l`] _dgZYd \]Yd nYdm] af *((/ lg ++ af *((1$ Yk k]]f af _mj] ,& L`]q fgo `Yn] l`] l][`fa[Yd Yf\ fYf[aYd [YhY[alq lg \]n]dgh Yf\ Y\ghl ]pl]jfYd _jgol` kljYl]_a]k$ Yf\ l`]j]^gj] the acquisition of targets in emerging markets is no longer the exclusive domain of eYlmj] gh]jYlgjk& >gj ]pYehd]$ :`Yjla 9ajl]d Y[imaj]\ RYaf 9^ja[Y af EYj[` *()($ ^gj MK)(&/ Zaddagf& In 2009, there was a sharp downturn in cross-border deals, whilst activity in any single [gmfljq af%eYjc]l \]Ydk! j]eYaf]\ Yl& L`ak j]][l]\ reduced opportunities in cross-border footprint growth, whilst in-market deals helped operators reduce costs Yf\ hgkalagf l`]ek]dn]k ^gj [gfn]j_]f[]&
Figure 4 Telecommunications deal values by region 2000-2010
-(($((( ,-($((( 400,000 +-($((( +(($((( *-($((( 200,000 )-($((( 100,000 *) -($((( ), 0 2000 2001 Deal value (US$m)
+,
*(
)(
*)
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-1
2002
*((+
2004
*((-
2006
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2008
2009
2010
All deals (global) Deals in emerging markets \]Ydk af ]e]j_af_ eYjc]lk Yk g^ Ydd \]Ydk l`Yl q]Yj! Kgmj[]2 L`gekgf K<; HdYlafme
I cant tell you the names of the countries we are working on. There will be a few more acquisitions on the African and Middle East footprint in the next couple of months.
Gervais Pellissier >jYf[] Ld[ge ;`a]^ >afYf[aYd G^[]j Reuters Insider TV, 22 May 2010
?]f]jYd ][gfgea[ af\a[]k ^]dd gf Yn]jY_] Zq -0 Z]lo]]f G[lgZ]j *((/ o`]f af\a[]k h]Yc]\! Yf\ EYj[` *((1 l`] Zgllge g^ l`] eYjc]l!& L]d][geemfa[Ylagfk k][lgj af\a[]k ^gddgo]\ l`] _]f]jYd ][gfgea[ lj]f\$ ^Yddaf_ Zq ,1 gn]j l`] kYe] h]jag\& @go]n]j$ fgl Ydd gh]jYlgjk km^^]j]\ ^jge l`] ][gfgea[ [jakak af l`] kYe] oYq$ Yf\ eYfq `Yn] j][gn]j]\ af daf] oal` l`]aj dg[Yd ][gfgeq& O] `Yn] ^gmf\ l`Yl o] [Yf Y[`a]n] Y egj] Y[[mjYl] na]o Zq YfYdqraf_ \]n]dgh]\ Yf\ ]e]j_af_ eYjc]lk k]hYjYl]dq&
Figure 5 Emerging telecom industry market capitalizations versus average emerging economic indices from 01.01.2007
170 150 130 110 90 70 50 1 Jan 07 1 Jul 07 1 Jan 08 1 Jul 08 1 Jan 09 1 Jul 09 1 Jan 10 1 Jul 10
Emerging operators
Source: Bloomberg
As illustrated by _mj]k - Yf\ .$ gh]jYlgjk af \]n]dgh]\ eYjc]lk `Yn] Z]]f kda_`ldq less volatile than global economy indices2. Operators in emerging markets lagged behind the recovery in the emerging market economies: telecommunications indices ^gj ]e]j_af_ eYjc]lk `Yn] af[j]Yk]\ Zq +) kaf[] EYj[` *((1$ o`adkl _]f]jYd ][gfgea[ af\a[]k g^ ]e]j_af_ eYjc]lk `Yn] jak]f Zq )+1 gn]j l`] kYe] h]jag\& Nevertheless, the impact of the economic downturn on the share prices of the ]e]j_af_ eYjc]l l]d[gk %-+! oYk kge]o`Yl [gfkakl]fl oal` l`Yl g^ l`]aj \]n]dgh]\ eYjc]l h]]jk %,/!&
Figure 6 Developed telecom industry market capitalizations versus average developed economic indices from 01.01.2007
170 150 130 110 90 70
2 The following general economic indices were included in the YfYdqkak2 ;9; ,($ KH -(($ <9P$ >LK= )(($ :K= K=FK=P +($ K@9F?@9A K= ;GEHGKAL=$ :J9RAD :GN=KH9$ JMKKA9F JLK $ E=PA;G :GDK9$ >LK='BK= 9>JA;9 9DD&
Source: Bloomberg
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Valuation drivers in the telecommunications industry
The purpose of our analysis is to identify the key valuation drivers for telecom operators, and to consider the impact of their activities (size, exposure to emerging markets, etc). We have asked the following questions:
@go \g afn]klgjk e]Ykmj] Yf\ nYdm] _jgol`7 O`Yl Yj] l`] [jal]jaY mk]\ Zq afn]klgjk af Yf afalaYd nYdmYlagf g^ lYj_]lk7 <g l`]k] [jal]jaY Y[[mjYl]dq j]][l Yf gh]jYlgjk mfaim] hjgd]7
O] `Yn] YfYdqk]\ l`] fYf[aYd \YlY g^ -/ dYj_] hmZda[dq%dakl]\ l]d][ge gh]jYlgjk2 *- af ]e]j_af_ eYjc]lk Yf\ +* af \]n]dgh]\ eYjc]lk& O] `Yn] Ydkg \ana\]\ l`]e according to their annual revenue (see _mj] /!& Gmj YfYdqkak g^ l`] fYf[aYd Y__j]_Yl]k$ _]g_jYh`a[Yd eYjc]l k`Yj]k Yf\ ^gj][Ykl stock-based multiples in the telecommunications industry was based on Bloomberg hjgb][l]\ ]klaeYl]k& In addition, around /( j][]fl ljYfkY[lagfk g^ hmZda[ Yf\ hjanYl] l]d][geemfa[Ylagfk targets o]j] j]na]o]\ Yf\ YfYdqr]\&
Figure7 Split of the 57 telecom operators by annual turnover
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The main valuation criteria used by investors in the telecommunications industry in l`]aj afalaYd nYdmYlagfk Yj] k`gof af l`] lYZd] Z]dgo& O] `Yn] a\]fla]\ l`] ^gddgoaf_ c]q \a^^]j]flaYlgjk$ o`a[` Y^^][l nYdmYlagfk Yl l`ak stage:
Sales: o] `Yn] YfYdqk]\ l]d[gk af l`] dYj_]j la]j `a_`]kl kYd]k oal`af gmj k]l g^
-/ gh]jYlgjk mf\]j YfYdqkak! Yf\ keYdd]j la]j dgo]kl kYd]k oal`af l`ak kYe] k]l!
"9JHM2 9n]jY_] j]n]fm] h]j mk]j *SAC: Subscriber acquisition costs *SRC: Subscriber retention costs
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C]q f\af_k
1.
Large telcos that operate in emerging markets have higher valuation multiples than their peers in mature markets. Investors place a premium on growth prospects, so long as they are well egfalgj]\ Yf\ \an]jka]\& 9\\alagfYd jakc ak j]][l]\ Zq `a_`]j Z]lYk (and hence higher costs of capital) for operators in emerging markets.
2.
The greater the exposure to emerging markets, the higher the EV/EBITDA multiple, provided the operator is large enough
Oal`af l`] dYj_] la]j$ ]e]j_af_ l]d][geemfa[Ylagfk gh]jYlgjk `Yn] `a_`]j =N'=:AL<9 emdlahd]k l`Yf l`]aj \]n]dgh]\ eYjc]l h]]jk& L`ak lj]f\ k`gok l`]aj YZadalq lg Z]f]l ^jge eYjc]l _jgol` jYl]k Yf\ Z]ll]j eYj_afk$ o`a[` Yj] lqha[Yd g^ d]kk eYlmj] eYjc]lk& @go]n]j$ l`ak lj]f\ \g]k fgl Yhhdq lg l`] keYdd la]j gh]jYlgjk$ Yk l`] eYjc]lk hdY[] Y hj]eame gf Y \an]jka[Ylagf g^ jakc$ o`a[` ak kmhhgjl]\ Zq l`] kar] g^ l`] Zmkaf]kk&
Figure 8 EV/EBITDA multiples of larger emerging operators by geographical exposure
0&( /&( .&( -&( ,&( +&( *&( )&( (&( 2009 2010 2011 2012 Emerging companies Source: Bloomberg Developed companies -&1p ,&0p -&-p ,&,p -&*p ,&,p -&(p ,&,p
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The smaller the company and the higher its exposure to emerging markets, the higher the beta
L`] Z]lY [g]^[a]fl gf] g^ l`] c]q [gehgf]flk g^ \ak[gmfl jYl]k! [gflYafk nYdmYZd] af^gjeYlagf YZgml l`] [gehYfqk jakc hjgd]& Typically, the telecommunications industry is now considered to be slightly less risky than the overall market, with beta [g]^[a]flk oal`af l`] (&/-%)&( jYf_]& Smaller telecommunications operators usually have a higher beta as their stocks are egj] ngdYlad]& L`]aj gh]jYlagfk Yj] [gfka\]j]\ lg Z] jakca]j l`Yf Y dYj_]j [gehYjYZd] Zmkaf]kk$ Yf\ l`]j]^gj] l`]q ogmd\ fgjeYddq qa]d\ `a_`]j j]lmjfk gf afn]kle]fl& =phgkmj] lg ]e]j_af_ gj eYlmj] eYjc]lk Ydkg afm]f[]k l`] gh]jYlgjk jakc& The market type differentiator hjgna\]k Y e]Ykmj] g^ l`ak&
Figure 9 Beta Beta Weekly 1.5 Larger vs Smaller Tiers
)&)&*)&( (&/(&(&*(&( 1 Jan 08 Source: Bloomberg 1 Jan 09 Larger tier Smaller tier 1 Jan 10 (&0) (&1, (&0/ (&1(&1/ (&0,
The higher the exposure to emerging markets, the higher the price-to-book ratio
Hja[]%lg%Zggc H':! jYlagk g^ dYj_] l]d[gk gh]jYlaf_ af ]e]j_af_ eYjc]lk Yj] `a_`]j l`Yf l`gk] g^ l`]aj h]]jk af \]n]dgh]\ eYjc]lk& L`ak k`gok l`Yl l`] eYjc]l ]ph][lYlagfk g^ `a_` _jgol` a&]&$ Yfla[ahYl]\ return on equity! `Yn] Z]]f Zmadl aflg l`]aj k`Yj] hja[]$ l`mk Zggklaf_ l`]aj H': jYlagk&
Figure 10 P/B of Larger-tier companies between 2007 and 2010 by region P/B Larger Tier
5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 6.9x
3.3x 2.2x
3.0x 2.0x
1 Jan 08
1 Jan 09
1 Jan 10
30 Sep 10
Developed companies
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Dgo]j H': jYlagk gZk]jn]\ ^gj dYj_] la]j \]n]dgh]\ Yf\ eap]\% market operators might be explained by: 1. Economic factors HYkl h]j^gjeYf[] oYk hgkalan] Yf\ j]dYlan]dq klYZd]$ Yf\ ak fgl ]ph][l]\ lg _jgo ka_fa[Yfldq af l`] ^mlmj] past return on equity is approximately equal to the future return on equity!& 2. Accounting factors 9[imakalagfk j]hgjl]\ naY HH9 d]\ lg l`] j][g_falagf g^ hYjl g^ the intangible assets in the acquirers consolidated accounts, af[j]Ykaf_ l`] Zggc nYdm] g^ ]imalq& L`mk l`] Zggc nYdm] g^ l`]k] [gehYfa]k Z]ll]j j]][lk l`]aj eYjc]l nYdm]$ d]Y\af_ lg dgo]j H': jYlagk&
The higher the exposure to emerging markets, the higher the implied transaction multiples
The implied multiples of acquired emerging targets were ka_fa[Yfldq `a_`]j l`Yf l`gk] g^ \]n]dgh]\ eYjc]l gh]jYlgjk& L`ak ak [gfkakl]fl oal` l`] [gf[dmkagfk \]jan]\ ^jge l`] H': YfYdqkak2 [gehYfa]k oal` `a_`]j H': o]j] bm\_]\ Zq afn]klgjk Yk hj]k]flaf_ `a_`]j _jgol` hgl]flaYd&
Figure 11 Recent transaction-based valuation multiples (20082009)
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 =N'KYd]k =N'=:AL<9 =N'=:AL +&/p )&*p 0&*p ))&,p )-&.p )*&.p
Developed markets
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Purchase price allocation (PPA) in the telecommunications industry
It is vitally important for acquirers to communicate clearly to the market about the value of assets acquired and liabilities assumed as part of an acquisition. L`]j]^gj]$ l`] l]d][ge%kh][a[ Ykk]lk g^ l`] lYj_]l k`gmd\ Z] a\]fla]\ Yf\ nYdm]\ mkaf_ jgZmkl nYdmYlagf l][`faim]k Yf\ e]l`g\gdg_a]k& =klaeYl]\ Ykk]l nYdm]k Yj] j]hgjl]\ Yk hYjl g^ Y HH9 YfYdqkak$ h]j^gje]\ af Y[[gj\Yf[] oal` A>JK j]imaj]e]flk& >mjl`]jegj]$ A>JK + J]nak]\! `Yk afljg\m[]\ f]o [`Ydd]f_]k af l]jek g^ hmj[`Yk] Y[[gmflaf_& L`] egkl [jala[Yd akkm]k ^gj nYdmYlagf af[dm\]2
Valuation of non-controlling interests Option to recognize goodwill on non-controlling interests Contingent consideration measured at fair value
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According to the last study, published in 2009, recognized intangible assets j]hj]k]fl]\ gf Yn]jY_] [aj[Y +( g^ l`] l]d][geemfa[Ylagfk af\mkljq+ targets EV, o`ad] _gg\oadd Y[[gmfl]\ ^gj YZgml .( _mj] )*!&
Figure 12 Intangible assets recognized in PPA in the telecommunications industry (as % of EV); source Global surveys of purchase price allocation practices, Ernst & Young 2009, available via GlobalTelecommunicationsCenter@uk.ey.com
)*
.)
+(
+*
++
/ 1 ).
Goodwill Total Recognized Intangible Assets Tangible Assets + Net Working Capital
Typical intangible assets in the telecommunications industry 9egf_ l`] aflYf_aZd] Ykk]lk j][g_far]\ af Y[imakalagfk$ l`] egkl ka_fa[Yfl nYdm] oYk typically assigned to:
Customer relationships and contracts Licenses for mobile operators or technology-related assets for technology
and equipment companies Trade names Other intangible assets include agreements, such as distribution, supplier or afl]j[gff][l YjjYf_]e]flk& Al k`gmd\ Z] fgl]\ l`Yl l`]k] j]kmdlk \]jan] ^jge YfYdqkak g^ gh]jYlgjk g^ \a^^]j]fl kar]$ eYjc]lk Yf\ l][`fgdg_a]k& O] ogmd\ j][gee]f\ l`Yl Yf in-depth analysis of each target should be carried out before identifying and valuing aflYf_aZd] Ykk]lk& Remaining useful life Egkl aflYf_aZd] Ykk]lk a\]fla]\ af l`] l]d][geemfa[Ylagfk af\mkljq ogmd\ lqha[Yddq `Yn] Y \]fal] mk]^md da^] af[dm\af_ af kge] [Yk]k l`] ljY\] fYe]k gj ljY\]eYjck!& ;mklge]j j]dYlagfk`ahk Yj] Yegjlar]\$ gf Yn]jY_]$ gn]j Y n]% lg ]a_`l%q]Yj mk]^md life, while the useful life of licenses is often based on their legal term plus foreseeable ]pl]fkagfk af kge] [Yk]k&
+ Telecommunications industry covering all sub-sectors, besides telephony, internet and mobile operators, including also service, l][`fgdg_q Yf\ ]imahe]fl [gehYfa]k&
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Goodwill components Gmj YfYdqkak [gfje]\ l`Yl l]d[gk \ak[dgk] af^gjeYlagf [gf[]jfaf_ the components of goodwill af Y[[gj\Yf[] oal` j]imaj]e]flk g^ A>JK +'+J Yf\ >9K ),)'),)J& L`] existence of goodwill is generally explained by synergies, additional market share and ^mlmj] k]jna[]k lg Z] g^^]j]\ lg l`] eYjc]l Zq l`] [geZaf]\ Zmkaf]kk& Some intangible assets might also be included in the amount recognized as goodwill if l`]aj nYdm] ak fgl eYl]jaYd km[` Yk \akljaZmlagf f]logjck!& In addition, the following components may also be included in the goodwill calculations: customer service capabilities, presence in geographic markets or locations (market hgo]j'afm]f[]!$ klj]f_l` g^ dYZgj j]dYlagfk$ gf_gaf_ ljYafaf_ gj j][jmalaf_ hjg_jYek$ outstanding credit ratings, access to capital markets, state of relationships with _gn]jfe]flk gj j]_mdYlgjk& These disclosures are key for investors, and provide afka_`lk YZgml l`] kljYl]_a[ Yf\ fYf[aYd jYlagfYd] g^ l`] ljYfkY[lagf&
Income approach o`a[` Yddgok ^mlmj] ][gfgea[ Z]f]lk g^ l`] Ykk]l lg Z] [Yhlmj]\
(via the multi-period excess earnings method, relief from royalty method, build-out or _j]]f]d\ e]l`g\! Market approach based on comparing the asset with similar assets, and prices paid for them (comparable transactions method) Cost approach relying on the principle that no prudent investor would pay for an asset more than the cost to recreate it or to reproduce an asset of similar utility (replacement or reproduction cost method) More than one approach may need to be considered in order to arrive at a supportable nYdmYlagf jYf_]& Af l`] ^gddgoaf_ k][lagfk$ o] ]phdYaf l`] [`ga[] g^ l`] hj]^]jj]\ e]l`g\ ^gj ]Y[` Ykk]l nYdm]\$ Yf\ \ak[mkk kge] g^ l`] hjY[la[Yd [`Ydd]f_]k&
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Trademarks/Trade names:
One of the most appropriate methodologies for valuing trademarks is the relief from royalty method, which estimates the expected royalty savings attributable to the ownership of l`] aflYf_aZd] Ykk]l& L`ak YhhjgY[` ak ZYk]\ gf l`] [gf[]hl l`Yl a^ Y [gehYfq gofk Yf Ykk]l$ al \g]k fgl `Yn] lg j]fl gf]& L`] gof]j ak l`mk j]da]n]\ ^jge hYqaf_ Y jgqYdlq$ o`a[` j]hj]k]flk nYdmYZd] [gkl kYnaf_k& Af l`ak [gfl]pl$ l`] l`]gj]la[Yd rent or royalty payment is used as a surrogate for the income YlljaZmlYZd] lg l`] ljY\]eYjc& The key assumptions when valuing a trade name are the revenue ZYk]$ l`] jgqYdlq jYl] Yf\ l`] \ak[gmfl jYl]& For telcos, the challenge arises around the remaining useful life g^ l`] Y[imaj]\ ljY\]eYjck& Kh][a[ j]%ZjYf\af_ Yf\ [g%ZjYf\af_ j]dYlaf_ lg l`] Y[imakalagf emkl fgl Z] af[dm\]\& The intention of the acquirer must not be taken into account, mfd]kk mf\]j kh][a[ [aj[meklYf[]k o`]j] al [Yf Z] hjgn]\ that market participants would have acted in the same way, kmhhgjl]\ Zq klja[l \g[me]flYlagf& Royalty rates for the telecoms industry vary widely, between (&- Yf\ ,$ \]h]f\af_ gf l`] klj]f_l` g^ l`] ZjYf\$ l`] [gehYfqk eYjc]l hgkalagf ]&_&$ dgo [gkl nk& hj]eame k]jna[]k gj eYjc]l k`Yj]!$ Yf\ l`] gh]jYlgjk fYf[aYd h]j^gjeYf[]&
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Subscriber relationships
The multi-period excess earnings method is commonly used to estimate the fair value g^ [mklge]j%j]dYl]\ Ykk]lk af _]f]jYd$ Yf\ kmZk[jaZ]j j]dYlagfk`ahk af hYjla[mdYj& The key principle of this methodology is that subscriber relationships do not generate [Yk` gok af Y nY[mme& JYl`]j$ l`]q Yj] kmhhgjl]\ Zq k]n]jYd gl`]j Ykk]lk$ km[` Yk p]\ Ykk]lk$ ogjcaf_ [YhalYd Yf\ aflYf_aZd] Ykk]lk& L`] gh]jYlaf_ hjgl _]f]jYl]\ Zq [mklge]jk ak YlljaZml]\ lg Y k]l g^ Ykk]lk& Excess earnings aims to estimate the value strictly attributable to subscribers over their j]eYafaf_ mk]^md da^] ]&_&$ lYcaf_ [`mjf jYl]k aflg Y[[gmfl!$ Zq kmZljY[laf_ ^jge l`] gh]jYlaf_ hjgl Y [gfljaZmlgjq Ykk]l [`Yj_]$ o`a[` j]hj]k]flk l`] l`]gj]la[Yd j]fl l`Yl ogmd\ `Yn] lg Z] hYa\ ^gj l`] mk] g^ l`]k] Ykk]lk o]j] l`]q fgl gof]\& L`] \a^^]j]f[] Z]lo]]f l`] gh]jYlaf_ hjgl Yf\ l`ak [`Yj_] ak [Ydd]\ ]p[]kk ]Yjfaf_ Yf\ ak ^mddq YlljaZmlYZd] lg l`] kmZk[jaZ]jk& <ak[gmflaf_ l`]k] ]p[]kk ]Yjfaf_k gn]j l`] j]eYafaf_ mk]^md da^] g^ l`] kmZk[jaZ]jk l`]f d]Y\k lg Yf YhhjghjaYl] ^Yaj nYdm]& To value subscriber relationships, the acquirer needs a process to remove duplication, km[` Yk emdlahd] KAE [mklge]jk$ fgf%Y[lan] [Yj\k$ Yf\ eY[`af]%lg%eY[`af] KAEk& The application of the multi-period excess earnings method is not easy in the telecommunications industry: >ajkldq$ l`] fYlmj] g^ l`] kmZk[jaZ]j nYja]k hjanYl]'[gjhgjYl]$ hj]%hYa\'hgkl%hYa\$ _]g_jYh`a[ Yj]Y'[gmfljq!$ Yk ]Y[` [Yf \a^^]j af l]jek g^ _jgol` lj]f\k$ eYj_af d]n]dk$ mk]^md dan]k Yf\ [`mjf jYl]k& ;gfk]im]fldq$ ]n]f a^ l`] nYdmYlagf e]l`g\gdg_q ak l`] same for each category, there may be a need to split the subscribers into different [Yl]_gja]k Yf\ nYdm] l`]e k]hYjYl]dq lg lYc] l`]k] \a^^]j]f[]k aflg Y[[gmfl& Secondly, the nature of services proposed should also be taken into consideration, to \]Yd oal` l`] kh][a[k g^ egfg%k]jna[] hjgna\]jk egZad]$ p]\$ afl]jf]l Yf\ LN! gj l`gk] g^ gh]jYlgjk hjgna\af_ Zmf\d]\ g^^]jk ljahd] hdYq$ gj imY\jmhd] hdYq!& L`aj\dq$ l`] [`mjf jYl] ka_fa[Yfldq aehY[lk nYdmYlagfk$ oal` YffmYd Ylljalagf jYl]k nYjqaf_ ^jge )( lg +-$ \]h]f\af_ gf l`] kmZk[jaZ]j [Yl]_gjq& Af Y\\alagf$ Ylljalagf risks based on the potential transfer of technologies or trade names are to be taken into Y[[gmfl& Lastly, the useful life is determined in a way that is consistent with the subscribers cash go hYll]jfk& 9 [geegf jmd] ak lg j]lYaf Y mk]^md da^] l`Yl [Yf [Yhlmj] 1( gj 1- g^ l`] lglYd nYdm] g^ kmZk[jaZ]j j]dYlagfk`ahk&
21
Licenses
The fair value of licenses may be estimated using a number of different valuation e]l`g\gdg_a]k& L`] [`ga[] g^ e]l`g\gdg_q \]h]f\k gf l`] YnYadYZadalq g^ af^gjeYlagf$ da[]fk]k$ Yf\ l`] ]pakl]f[] g^ Yf Y[lan] eYjc]l& The _j]]f]d\ YhhjgY[` ak kh][a[Yddq mk]\ lg nYdm] l]d][geemfa[Ylagfk da[]fk]k& L`ak approach values the license by calculating the value of a hypothetical start-up company l`Yl _g]k aflg Zmkaf]kk oal` fg Ykk]lk ]p[]hl l`] Ykk]l lg Z] nYdm]\ l`] da[]fk]!& L`] value of the asset under consideration can be considered as equal to the value of this `qhgl`]la[Yd klYjl%mh [gehYfq& The license value can also be derived via the market approach, which estimates the fair nYdm] Zq j]^]jjaf_ lg hmj[`Yk] hja[]k hYa\ ^gj da[]fk]k ^gj kaeadYj l][`fgdg_a]k& Af\]]\$ the market approach results from the recent sale of similar licences, and how their nYdmYlagf e]lja[k j]dYl] lg l`] da[]fk] mf\]j [gfka\]jYlagf& Finally, the cost approach might be applied by estimating the license value based on alk `aklgja[Yd gj j]hdY[]e]fl [gkl& @go]n]j$ l`] [gkl YhhjgY[` j]kmdlk Yj] g^l]f daeal]\$ Yk *? Yf\ +? da[]fk]k Z][ge] jYha\dq gZkgd]l] af lg\Yqk ^Ykl%egnaf_ j]_mdYlgjq Yf\ l][`fgdg_a[Yd ]fnajgfe]flk& L`] _j]]f]d\ YhhjgY[` ak `a_`dq kmZb][lan]& Af =mjgh]$ da[]fk]k `Yn] fal] mk]^md dan]k$ kg l`] nYdm] g^ l`] klYjl%mh [gehYfq ak [Yd[mdYl]\ Yl l`] ]f\ g^ l`] da[]fk]k mk]^md da^]& This takes into account the fair value of the remaining assets, such as networks and [mklge]jk$ oal` Y hgl]flaYd \ak[gmfl$ Yf\ Y[[gmflaf_ ^gj kge] [gflafm]\ mk]& ?an]f l`Yl l`] Ykkmehlagfk j]dYlaf_ lg l]jeafYd nYdm]k `Yn] Y ka_fa[Yfl aehY[l gf l`] fYd nYdmYlagf$ l`]q k`gmd\ Z] [`gk]f [Yj]^mddq$ Yf\ o]dd \g[me]fl]\& The market approach is rarely used because of challenges relating to the quality of the sample, the quality of tender processes, the comparability of the acquired licenses l][`fgdg_q$ l]jjalgjq [gn]j]\$ ]l[&! Yf\ l`] ^]] kljm[lmj] ^gj hYqaf_ ^gj l`] da[]fk] mh^jgfl$ YffmYd ^]]k Yk Y h]j[]flY_] g^ j]n]fm]k gj p]\!& @go]n]j$ o] Z]da]n] l`ak YhhjgY[` k`gmd\ Z] mk]\ egj] g^l]f Z][Ymk] al ak Y mk]^md [jgkk%j]^]j]f[]& <a^^]j]fl ^]] kljm[lmj]k ]pakl$ o`a[` eYc] [gehYjakgfk n]jq \a^[mdl2 1. One-off fees
Main multiples used: Price/inhabitant Price/GDP Price/GDP per inhabitant Price/MHz Price/MHz per inhabitant
Market set: method used by regulators to estimate an upfront fee using market
comparison valuation techniques
Hja[] ggjk Yf\ eafaeme Za\k2 e]l`g\ mk]\ af Ym[lagfk o`]j] Y ggj hja[] ak k]l lg
ensure that the starting point for bids is in line with government expectations 2. Annual or recurring fees
Revenue-based annual fees set as a percentage of annual gross revenues 9ffmYd p]\ ^]] gj YffmYddq%Y\bmkl]\ ^]] fgf%j]n]fm] ZYk]\ h]jag\a[ ^]]! In some countries, additional contributions may include taxes levied by ministries
other than the telecommunications ministry, or may take the form of a small percentage of gross billed revenues to fund national research programs or to support a universal service fund
22
Contracts
A9K +0 \]f]k [gfljY[lk Yk aflYf_aZd] Ykk]lk l`Yl `Yn] Y p]\ gj \]fal] l]je Y_j]]\ Zq Zgl` hYjla]k& L`]q hjgna\] ^gj [gfljY[lmYd ja_`lk lg j][]an] egf]q gj [gfljY[lmYd gZda_Ylagfk lg hYq egf]q gf p]\ gj \]l]jeafYZd] \Yl]k& ;gfljY[lk j]hj]k]fl l`] nYdm] g^ ja_`lk l`Yl Yjak] ^jge [gfljY[lmYd YjjYf_]e]flk& This methodology is useful for assessing such agreements as MVNO network sharing, [gfl]fl Yf\ Yhhda[Ylagfk gj jgYeaf_ Y_j]]e]flk& The main analysis that should be performed concerns the favorable or unfavorable terms of the contract relative to the market: does this contract provide the operator oal` Y [geh]lalan] \ak!Y\nYflY_]7 Other characteristics of the contract to be considered include: Renewal clauses @aklgja[Yd lj]f\k Exclusivity or similar characteristics Contracts that might have a favorable or unfavorable nature include: D]Yk]'j]flYd Y_j]]e]flk Supply contracts Distribution agreements Indefeasible rights of use (IRU) Dgf_%l]je d]Yk]'j]flYd Y_j]]e]flk ka_f]\ af l`] hYkl Yl eYjc]l jYl]k p]\$ fgf% adjusted rent) might eventually become favorable or unfavorable agreements because g^ l`] [q[da[Yd fYlmj] g^ l`] eYjc]l& L`] fgf%eYjc]l hYjl g^ j]flk Zgjf] gj Ynga\]\ Zq l`] Y[imaj]j \m] lg l`] ]paklaf_ j]flYd'd]Yk] [gfljY[l k`gmd\ Z] nYdm]\ Yf\ Zggc]\ af l`] Y[imaj]jk [gfkgda\Yl]\ Y[[gmflk& Supply contracts and distribution agreements shall be checked for any off-market terms and conditions as well as for any exclusivity clauses, as these might give rise to an aflYf_aZd] Ykk]l Z]af_ a\]fla]\$ j][g_far]\ Yf\ nYdm]\& IRUs enable operators to use the networks of other telecommunications carriers for an Yegmfl l`Yl [Yf Z] [gehYj]\ lg Y j]fl& 9dd AJMk Yj] ka_f]\ ^gj dgf_%l]je h]jag\k Yf\ represent a competitive advantage over other market participants, as capacity is limited af l`] eYjc]l Yf\$ gf[] [gfljY[l]\$ l`]q Yj] fgl YnYadYZd] lg gl`]j eYjc]l hYjla[ahYflk& Therefore, these contracts may represent a great deal of value to their owners, and are g^l]f af[dm\]\ af l`] HH9& Non-compete agreements are contracts between a buyer and a seller of a business, j]klja[laf_ l`] k]dd]j ^jge [geh]laf_ af l`] kYe] af\mkljq ^gj Y kh][a[ h]jag\ g^ lae]$ g^l]f oal`af Y \]f]\ _]g_jYh`a[ Yj]Y& L`] hjaf[ahYd l][`faim] mk]\ lg nYdm] fgf% compete agreements is an incremental approach, which values the asset based on the \a^^]j]f[] af [Yk` gok Z]lo]]f k[]fYjagk oal` gj oal`gml l`] fgf%[geh]l] Y_j]]e]fl in place (with or without approach!& L`] eYaf daealYlagf g^ l`ak YhhjgY[` ak l`Yl al ak `a_`dq kmZb][lan]$ Yf\ l`] afhmlk Yj] \ak[j]lagfYjq af ]Y[` [Yk]&
23
Tangible assets
Tangible assets are generally valued by applying the cost approach& L`] hjaf[ahd] behind this approach is that the value of an asset should not exceed the cost of obtaining a substitute asset of comparable ^]Ylmj]k$ mladalq Yf\ ^mf[lagfYdalq& Af l`] [gfl]pl g^ HH9$ l`] YhhjgY[` ak Yhhda[YZd] if the market and income approaches [Yffgl Z] Yhhda]\& Two methods might be regarded within the cost approach:
Further considerations, such as functional gZkgd]k[]f[] [YhY[alq$ jYha\alq$ ]l[&! Yf\ asset retirement obligations, can also `Yn] Y ka_fa[Yfl aehY[l gf nYdm]k&
Discount rate
When using income as a basis for the valuation methodology, such as the relief from royalty method or the multi-period excess earnings method (MEEM), a \ak[gmfl jYl] `Yk lg Z] Yhhda]\& L`] \ak[gmfl jYl] k`gmd\ Z] kh][a[ lg ]Y[` Ykk]l Yf\ j]][l alk jakc hjgd]& Al should also be consistent with the overall company weighted average cost of capital O9;;!& L`] weighted average return on assets (WARA) analysis estimates the average rate of return of the companys economic assets, based on their own discount rate, and calculates their respective weight in the total enterprise nYdm] =N!& Network assets and working capital are considered to carry relatively little risk in Telecoms, whereas licenses, customer bases and trade names demand a `a_`]j jYl] g^ j]lmjf& ?gg\oadd [gfka\]jk synergies whose realization often proves \a^[mdl Yf\ l`]j]^gj] jakcq& The WARA analysis aims to check that the rates used are consistent with the j]kh][lan] jakc hjgd]k g^ l`] Ykk]lk$ Yf\ j][gf[ad] l`gk] oal` l`] gh]jYlgjk O9;;&
24
Goodwill
Goodwill is estimated as the residual between the value of the business as a whole (the purchase price) and the sum of fair values Ykk]kk]\ ^gj a\]flaYZd] lYf_aZd] Yf\ intangible assets of the business, less the fair nYdm] g^ daYZadala]k Ykkme]\& Goodwill in the telecommunications industry often includes the following elements: Post-acquisition subscriber base development Any post-acquisition subscriber growth that cannot be assigned to existing subscribers ea_`l gfdq Z] [Yhlmj]\ af _gg\oadd& Bundled offers (convergence synergy) L`] ]e]j_]f[] g^ imY\jmhd]%hdYq g^^]jk Zmf\d]k g^ p]\ l]d]h`gfq$ ZjgY\ZYf\ internet, mobile telephony and TV are likely to lead to gains in market share and average 9JHM$ Yf\ Y j]\m[lagf af [`mjf jYl]k& Mergers in the telecom sector tend to build gf ]paklaf_ ljahd]%hdYq g^^]jk& 9k Y j]kmdl$ _gg\oadd eYq afl]_jYl] l`] ^mlmj] Z]f]lk g^ Zmf\d]\ k]jna[]k& Access to powerful distribution networks Acquiring an operator which owns sales outlets enables the acquirer to offer its k]jna[]k lg Y oa\]j hghmdYlagf& Geographical expansion Winning new markets for the acquirer will enlarge its geographical coverage, and ]f`Yf[] alk ZjYf\ nYdm]& Buy vs. build 9[imajaf_ Y hjglYZd] Zmkaf]kk oal` Y dYj_]$ established network may lead to future growth, saving time and money that would have been required to build a similar network ^jge k[jYl[`& Defensive strategy Acquiring a competitor may enable the acquirer to reduce price wars in certain geographical areas, or to protect itself Y_Yafkl Y[imakalagf Zq Y dYj_]j gh]jYlgj&
25
Contacts
Global Telecommunications Center
Vincent de La Bachelerie Global Telecommunications Leader naf[]fl&\]&dY&ZY[`]d]ja]8^j&]q&[ge Jonathan Dharmapalan Global Deputy Telecommunications Leader bgfYl`Yf&\`YjeYhYdYf8]q&[ge Marc Chaya Global Telecommunications Markets Leader eYj[&[`YqY8^j&]q&[ge Nicolas Klapisz Global Telecommunications Valuation & Business Modelling Leader fa[gdYk&cdYhakr8^j&]q&[ge Robin Jowitt Global Telecommunications Transaction Advisory Leader jbgoall8mc&]q&[ge Serge Pottiez Global Telecommunications IFRS Advisor k]j_]&hglla]r8^j&]q&[ge Steve Lo Global Telecommunications Center Beijing kl]n]&dg8[f&]q&[ge Holger Forst Global Telecommunications Center Cologne `gd_]j&^gjkl8\]&]q&[ge Prashant Singhal Global Telecommunications Center Delhi hjYk`Yfl&kaf_`Yd8af&]q&[ge Serge Thiemele Global Telecommunications Center Johannesburg k]j_]&l`a]e]d]8[a&]q&[ge Wasim Khan Global Telecommunications Center Riyadh oYkae&c`Yf8kY&]q&[ge Mike Stoltz Global Telecommunications Center San Antonio ea[`Y]d&klgdlr8]q&[ge