Project evaluation

Y1Q3: April-June 2012

This evaluation considers the available evidence to measure the progress achieved against the seven stage one objectives of Open Briefing during April-June 2012. Overall, four of these objectives have now been achieved nine months into stage one of the project. We are on target to achieve another two, and work has begun on achieving the last objective.

Objective 1: Establish the think tank and associated online presence

Objective 1 has been achieved. (100% of target.) Open Briefing was registered with Companies House as a company limited by guarantee on 27 May 2011 and publicly launched on 10 October, when openbriefing.org went live. Our full online presence now includes: Website e-Bulletin (The Weekly Briefing) RSS feeds Social networks Facebook Google+ Twitter (includes desk lists) YouTube (includes desk playlists) LinkedIn (includes the Open Briefing Network) Issuu (digital library) Scribd (digital library backup) Mobile app Web apps

During Q3 we updated our website comment system to the new version of Disqus.

Objective 2: Collect, assess and distribute at least 90 open source intelligence items
Objective 2 has been achieved. (207% of target.) Open Briefing has now analysed, filed and distributed 186 open source intelligence items in the nine months since launching. These items have been widely disseminated through our website, weekly e-bulletin, mobile and web apps, RSS feeds and social networks. Our users have also further disseminated them through their own networks using the sharing tools built in to our website. Additional material was disseminated solely through our Twitter and YouTube networks or added to the digital library.

The graph below gives an indication of the current relative priority given to each desk. The political violence and dissent desk and resource security and climate change desk filed the most items of the issue desks, and the Middle East desk and Asia and Pacific desk filed the most items of the regional desks. We are actively recruiting contributing analysts and associate researchers to expand the activity of the desks that have filed the least material to date. 0 Political violence and dissent Resource security and climate change Nuclear issues UK national security Middle East Asia and Pacific Africa Americas Europe Polar regions 10 20 30 40 50 60

Objective 3: Publish at least 15 analyses, 3 dossiers and 2 briefings

On target to achieve the goal set in objective 3. (80% of target in nine months.) Open Briefing has published eleven analyses, six articles, three dossiers and two briefing papers to date. The issues covered by Open Briefing original analyses during Q3 were: The violent campaign for independence in Papua and West Papua. The student protests in Quebec. The insurgency in southern Thailand.

The articles published by members of the Open Briefing team during Q3 were: Kevjn Lim, Tehrans man in Baghdad, The National Interest, 8 June 2012. Kevjn Lim, Israels reluctant friend, The Diplomat, 12 May 2012. Kevjn Lim, Let Iran save face, The Diplomat, 21 April 2012. Kevjn Lim, Kadima: Not yet another centrist casualty, openDemocracy, 11 April 2012.

The dossiers published during Q3 were on: Iran, Israel and the consequences of military strikes. The April/May 2012 standoff between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal.

The briefing paper published during Q3 was: Chris Abbott and Joel Vargas, Rehabilitating the war on drugs: Central America and the legalisation debate (London: Open Briefing, 2012).

In addition, the paperback edition of Chris Abbotts book 21 speeches that shaped our world: The people and ideas that changed the way we think was published by Rider Books in June (the hardback and Kindle editions were published in August 2010). Rehabilitating the war on drugs was published in English and Spanish on 4 April, ten days before the Sixth Summit of the Americas, where, for the first time, alternatives to prohibition were discussed by American leaders, led by Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina. This well-received white paper outlined a sustainable security alternative strategy to the failed war on drugs. The paper was read by President Molina and report co-author Joel Vargas followed up with several meetings and conversations with senior Guatemalan policymakers, including the President of Congress. Several of the ideas in the paper are said to be informing the further development of Guatemalas strategy. Prospect magazine also commissioned a letter on the issue from Chris Abbott, published in the June 2012 edition.

Objective 4: Sign up at least 300 subscribers to the organisation's weekly e-bulletin and social networks
Objective 4 has been achieved. (170% of target.) Open Briefing now has 511 known subscriptions to our social networks and ebulletin and other outputs (together with a further 168 known installs of our mobile and web apps). Twitter has the most subscribers (196), followed by our ebulletin (103). In order to measure the reach and impact of our social networks, Open Briefing uses a basket of six different influence metrics, including industry leaders Klout and Kred (no single tool is currently accurate, transparent or comprehensive enough for our needs). An average of these six metrics gives us a current influence score of 40.15/100. 600

500

400

e-Bulletin Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn

300

200

Other

100

0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Objective 5: Attract at least 500 visitors a month from around the world to the organisation's website
Objective 5 has been achieved. (240% of target.) This target has been achieved in eight out of nine months since launch. There were over 1,500 unique monthly visitors to the website each month during Q3 (and have been for the last five months running). The monthly average since launch has been 1,200 unique visitors (generating on average 1,749 visits and 4,074 page views a month). On average, visitors view 2.33 pages per visit and stay on the site for over three minutes each time. Visits have come from all over the world, though a majority continue to come from Europe and North America (predominantly the United Kingdom and United States). 3500 3000 2500 2000 Visitors 1500 1000 500 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Visits

The website currently has a Google PageRank of 4/10, a Webutation score of 100/100 and a Web of Trust trustworthiness rating of 59/100. In June, openbriefing.org was nominated for an Awwward: The awards for design, creativity and innovation on the Internet. We also received an honourable mention on their website. At time of writing the voting and judging process is still underway.

Objective 6: Carry out a thorough evaluation of the organisation's effectiveness and value
On target to achieve the goal set in objective 6. (80% of target in nine months.) Our progress in achieving our aim and objectives is being constantly monitored against qualitative and quantitative data from various independent sources. This will be summarised in four quarterly reports and at the end of stage 1 a formal evaluation of the project will be carried out.

Objective 7: Secure longer-term funding for stage 2 of the project

Work has now begun on achieving objective 7. The priority so far has been to secure the full funding needed for stage 1 of the project, which was achieved in April 2012. The required set up costs and operating costs for stage 1 were budgeted at 39,385. Open Briefing has so far raised 41,325 (105% of target) from grants from the Marmot Charitable Trust (9,600) and the Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation (14,000) and two grants from the Network for Social Change (5,500 and 12,00), and individual donations from members of the public totalling 230 (46% of our 500 donation target for the year). Separately, the Executive Director was awarded an EU start-up grant of 1,060 for IT equipment and software (funded by the European Regional Development Fund). This means that fundraising efforts during Q3 focussed on developing stage 2 of the project, which was furthered by a very productive meeting of the advisory board on 11 June. Suitable foundations have been identified and we examining other avenues of funding related to philanthropy and Social Impact Derivatives, as well as consultancy.

Other developments
There has been a significant expansion of the Open Briefing team over recent months to include eight contributing analysts, an associate editor and two associate researchers. These volunteers have increased the activity of the intelligence desks and made a significant contribution to the capacity of such a small organisation. They are all experts in their fields and bring considerable knowledge and experience to Open Briefing. Please see openbriefing.org/about/staff for their biographies. This experience has led us to place staff recruitment and our intern programme on hold and focus instead on expert volunteers, including contributing analysts (for research and analysis), associates (for press, fundraising, social media and other administrative tasks), and microvolunteers (to complete online, time-limited tasks). Please see openbriefing.org/about/volunteer/ for more information on the different roles. To launch and promote our new volunteering opportunities, we held a Volunteer Fortnight, 21 May to 3 June, which resulted in 35 applications for the contributing analyst and associate roles and six microvolunteers completing various online tasks. Interviews are being carried out with four applicants for the contributing analyst role and four for the associate researcher role. In May, Open Briefing launched its press office, which includes a dedicated email address for journalists and a list of our experts who are available for interview. Media coverage of Open Briefings work during Q3 included: Antiwar Radio, 21 May 2012 Foreknowledge, April 2012 Hawaii News Daily, 9 April 2012 The Guatemala Times, 5 April 2012

Future developments
Key initiatives for Q4 include: The recruitment of more contributing analysts and associates. Re-launching the Open Briefing podcast. Publishing a paper discrediting the pervasive myth-conceptions about East Asia and another on the psychology behind security policymaking. Publishing a dossier on the insurgency in southern Thailand. Registering as a charity or Community Interest Company. Developing and writing the stage 2 project proposal and submitting it for funding. Development of the Open Briefing consultancy.

Chris Abbott, Executive Director 3 July 2012