Recent advances in petroleum assessment, Trondheim 19 20 October 2005

Risk assessment. Principles and experiences

Kjell ygard SINTEF Petroleum Research

SINTEF Petroleum Research

Risk assessment
The purpose of risk assessment in petroleum exploration is to estimate the probability of discovery prior to drilling of a mapped prospect.

Play level evaluation Calculation of the economic value of prospects Assessment of the undiscovered resources in a given area during play evaluation. Ranking of prospects

SINTEF Petroleum Research

Risk assessment
High degree of uncertainty in exploration for oil and gas Half of drilled exploration wells are dry About 50% of the discoveries are non profitable Geologists perform risk assessment in a subjective manner

SINTEF Petroleum Research

Geological risk assessment

The Geological risk assessment requires an evaluation of those geological factors that are critical to the discovery of recoverable quantities of hydrocarbons. The probability of discovery is defined as the product of the following major probability factors, each of which must be evaluated with respect to presence and effectiveness: Probability of: Reservoir Trap Hydrocarbon charge Retention of hydrocarbons after accumulation

SINTEF Petroleum Research

The Probability Consept

1. Pprob. = 1 Prisk
2. The probability of the simultaneous occurrence of several independent events is equal to the product of their individual probabilities. P = Pres x Ptrap x PHC x Pret 3. Given the occurrence of several mutually exclusive events, P = Pa + Pb 4. The probability of either one or both of two independent events can be estimated by calculating the risk that neither of the events will occur. (1-P) = (1 - Pa) x (1 Pb)

SINTEF Petroleum Research

Oil Prospect Reserve Monte Carlo Calculation

Minimum

1 ITERATION

N et

S O eal il Sa Eff Tr ic t ap Po ura ien Vo tio cy r n lu osi ty m e

Most Likely Maximum

p Ca as or e G act m F lu ry tio Vo ve co l Ra i Re s/O n tor Ga atio Fac rm e Fo lum Vo

e as n Ph ss io at ce Ac rm ty sfo ili an tib Tr a er re nv Co ce A ur So

SINTEF Petroleum Research

Risk vs. Uncertainty

Risk is the probability that the parameter of interest fails to work at the minimum level expected Uncertainty is the variation in or the range of possible outcomes

SINTEF Petroleum Research

Prospect Probabilities
The probability of discovery is a value that is based partly on objective knowledge and historical data, partly on extrapolations and partly on our subjective judgements of local geological parameters. Post-drill evaluation Reliability of the database Relevant geological models

SINTEF Petroleum Research

SINTEF Petroleum Research

Reservoir
Probability of existence of reservoir facies with minimum net thickness and net/gross-ratio Probability of effectiveness of the reservoir, with respect to minimum porosity, permeability and hydrocarbon saturation

SINTEF Petroleum Research

10

Reservoir probability guidelines

Porosity evaluation Presence of effective reservoir facies

SINTEF Petroleum Research

11

Trap mechanism
Probability of presence of the mapped structure with a minimum rock volume as prognosed in the volume calculation. Geometrical body. Probability of effective seal mechanism for the mapped structure.

SINTEF Petroleum Research

12

Trap mechanism probability guidelines

Structural/stratigraphic complexity regarding rock volume

Effective seal mechnism

SINTEF Petroleum Research

13

Petroleum Charge
Probability of effective source rock in terms of the existence of sufficient volume of mature source rock of adequate quality located in the drainage area of the mapped structure. Probability of effective migration of hydrocarbons from the source rock to the mapped structure at the right time. Petroleum Charge= Effective drainage area X Thickness map X TOC and HI X Transformation X Expulsion X Secondary migration

SINTEF Petroleum Research

14

Retention after accumulation

The probability of effective retention of petroleum in the prospect after accumulation

SINTEF Petroleum Research

15

Hydrocarbons indicators
Oil seepage, pockmarks at sea-bottom, gas anomalies in seismic data etc., are all indicators of hydrocarbons being present. A direct hydrocarbon indicator (DHI) is defined as a change in seismic reflection character (seismic anomaly) which is the direct result of the reservoirs fluid content changing from water to hydrocarbons.
Real or false: - Opal A/CT and Opal CT/Quartz

SINTEF Petroleum Research

16

Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator

Rock Properties
Should See Should not See Do See
Poor rock DHI- Attribute properties model Seismic artifact

Seismic
No prospect

Do not See

Poor seismic quality

Relay on geologic modells and Petroleum System

SINTEF Petroleum Research

17

Risk assessment
Predicted
Reservoir presence Reservoir deliverability Seal presence Seal capasity Source presence Access to charge Retention after accumlation

Not predicted Not predicted Predicted

Geophysical driven

Geological driven
SINTEF Petroleum Research 18

Petroleum Risk Assessment litterature

http://www.ccop.or.th/projects/RiskAssess.pdf
Rose, P R, 1987. Dealing with risk and uncertainty in exploration: how can we improve? AAPG Bulletin, v. 77, no 3, p 319-326 Rose, P R, 1992. Chance of success and its use in petroleum exploration, in R Steinmetz, ed., The business of petroleum exploration: AAPG Treatise of Petroleum Geology, Handbook of Petroleum Geology, p 71- 86 White, D A, 1993. Geologic risking guide for prospects and plays: AAPG Bulletin, v 77, p 2048-2061 Otis, R and Schneidermann N, 1997. A process for evaluating exploration prospects. AAPG Bulletin, v 81, no 7, p 1087-1109. Ulmishek, Gregory F., 1986: Stratigraphic aspects of petroleum resource assessment, in Rice, D.D., ed., Oil and gas assessments Methods and applications: AAPG Studies in Geology #21, p. 59-68. Milton, N. J., and Bertram, G. T., 1992. Trap Styles-A New Classification Based on Sealing Surfaces. AAPG Bulletin, v 76, no. 7, p 983-999.

SINTEF Petroleum Research

19