Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Vietnam: The Role of Bloggers Carlyle A. Thayer June 7, 2012

[client name deleted] Q1. What part do bloggers and journalists play in diplomatic relations between Vietnam and China, and Vietnam and the US? ANSWER: Relations between China and Vietnam are negatively affected by bloggers who overwhelmingly adopt a nationalist anti-China stance. There have been periodic bouts of cyber war between netizens in Vietnam and China who fire vollies of intemperate commentary at each other. In should be recalled that the joint statement reached on June 25, 2011 had a clause on controlling public opinion. Both Vietnam and China recognized the toxic effect this commentary was having on their bilateral relations. There is no neutral blog site that I am aware that dispassionately tries to consider both sides of the territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Most journalists are restricted by their editors and hew the official line. Their reporting and commentary is not neutral and invariably contains an anti-China undertone. Or reporting provides factual historical information and commentary by specialists that supports Vietnams territorial claims in the South China Sea. A few journalists have pushed the envelope in their reporting, and more particularly in their blogs. Commentary by bloggers and journalists in Vietnam about the United States is generally positive or constructively critical. Q2. Do you think the unprecedented coverage of the land protest in Hai Phong earlier this year shows local media are becoming bolder in their reporting? ANSWER: No. The Vietnamese media was given unwritten sanction to provide coverage of the land protest in Hai Phong. Reporting by journalists was not quite unprecedented. Journalists were unleased to expose the Nam Cam scandal and, to a lesser extent, the PMU-18 scandal. But subsequent to the Hai Phong land protests, journalists were put on a short leash in their coverage of similar events Q3. Which do you think is the bigger force for change in coverage by local media: Power struggles within the Communist Party or the rise of informal reporting on the internet (ie bloggers)?

2 ANSWER: The local media does not report on power struggles in the Vietnam Communist Party. They are aware of personality and policy clashes and provide reporting that the political elite can interpret. The coverage of former National Assembly deputy Dang Thi Hoang Yen is a case in point. It appeared obvious that there was an approved orchestrated campaign to take her down. The press carried leaks of her shortcomings and indiscretions. Other elements of the press gave factual if not neutral accounts. Another case of press shadow boxing concerns the former chairman of Vinalines and why he was promoted. Far more influential is the role of informal blogging that in some cases focuses on high level corruption by senior leaders and their families. The political elite devour this in private because it is the only source of domestic information of this type. Far more influential are the role of overseas Vietnamese language blog sites and their commentary. Some of this is quite sophisticated and is widely read and distributed in Vietnam. Next in impact would be the Vietnamese language service of the BBC and to a lesser extent Radio France Internationale. They report commentary and analysis by Vietnamese personalities including retired officials and they also use foreign academics to provide commentary that would be restricted in Vietnam.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: The Role of Bloggers, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 7, 2012.

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ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Governance and the National Assembly Carlyle A. Thayer June 13, 2012

[client name deleted] 1. At the ongoing session of the National Assembly, lawmakers concurred that mismanagement and debt plaguing state-owned enterprises are the bane of the Vietnamese economy and create a fertile ground for corruption. To what extent is this true? ANSWER: We must distinguish between everyday ordinary small scale corruption like traffic police taking bribes and entrenched corruption. State-owned enterprises (SOE) in Vietnam are something of a sacred cow. They provide a patronage network for their managers, and they provide support for a network of political-economic relations. The SOEs are privileged in Vietnam by the state. They are one source a very important source of entrenched corruption. They are poorly supervised and the prevailing ethos appears to be one of laissez faire. I agree with deputies that DOES are a bane to Vietnams economy and an important source of corruption. But as the PMU-18 scandal indicated, the government itself can be a source of entrenched corruption as well. 2. Several lawmakers have once again pointed out that the influence of interest groups and the lack of governmental willingness to heed peoples concerns have undermined the public confidence in the government. Is it too late for the government to take action to rectify these problems? If, so why? If not, why not? ANSWER: It is never too late to take action. But reform is a slow and gradual process. Vietnam is still a developing country with many administrative and legal weaknesses. The crux of the matter here is Vietnams political system. There is a structural problem in than many organs of supervision and control are not truly autonomous and independent. Vietnam prefers to have the Vietnam Communist Party the leading force in state and society. This means the party must improve its communication and feedback with the general population. I do not think that most state cadres really view themselves as servants of the people. Some are like mandarins of old and expect the people to respect them because of the position they hold. The creation of informal networks of influence short circuits a robust interaction between the masses and the party-state. The Vietnam Fatherland Front needs to expand and include new types of groups and societies that were formed after doi moi. Each of

2 the Fronts mass organisations and members should be given a more autonomous and independent role in society. 3. The newly-installed National Assembly has also been under fire for its inefficient oversight over the government performance with some lawmakers even warning that the house could be back to square one: a rubber stamp for the government. What is your take on this? ANSWER: It is unlikely that the National Assembly will return to its pre-1992 rubber stamp days. Vietnams electoral system may not be perfect but it does attract highly qualified persons of talent who are well educated. One weakness in my view is that the committees of the National Assembly do not play a proactive role. The committees should be able request government documents and call in ministers and senior state cadres and question them on policy implementation and allocation of resources. Deputies should have the right to introduce legislation on their own accord. The National Assembly need to be supported by a well-funded research library with appropriately qualified staff to assist them.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Governance and the National Assembly, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 13, 2012.

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ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Economic Problems Local or Global? Carlyle A. Thayer June 14, 2012

[client name deleted] Overall, are the current economic problems in Vietnam a result more of local politics or the global recession of 2008/2009? If your answer is local politics, how would you respond to economists who say the problems are of a global nature among emerging markets? Quite a few Vietnamese academics have stated this point to me. ANSWER: Vietnams problems are overwhelmingly local, in my view, exacerbated by the global climate. Corruption in Vietnam is pervasive. There is a bad regulatory system. The state-owned sector is privileged, indebted, corrupt and not globally competitive. State conglomerates are only the tip of the iceberg. Traditionally Vietnam has reacted to global problems by battening down the hatches to ride out the storm. Vietnam also places a premium on domestic political stability and is very cautious in economic policy. The bottom line is that Vietnam must undertake some fundamental domestic economic reforms to remain competitive. It is more likely that Vietnams leaders will use the global financial crisis as an excuse for more of the same.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Economic Problems Local or Global?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 14, 2012.